Future Redbirds 2013 Top 20 Prospects: #10 - #6

Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

Two players make big jumps into the top 10. Plus, the 2012 top draft pick arrives.

10. Anthony Garcia
2012 Ranking: Unranked
Individual Rankings: AndyB83 - 12, azru - 7, jroman - 11

Comments:

Garcia was drafted as a catcher out of a Puerto Rican high school in the 18th round of the 2009 draft. Still young at 20 years old, Garcia has since been moved to the outfield and, while he has displayed some promising power at the lower levels of the system and has something close to average patience, he strikes out quite a bit and has limited defensive ability. Shortcomings aside, his overall offensive contributions were forty-three percent better than league average, and that’s impressive enough to earn a top ten ranking in this esteemed system. - Andy

You can't teach the kind of power that Anthony Garcia has displayed so far. His .218 ISO in the minors, compiled between the ages of 18-20, is the kind of power that should get noticed. If his plate discipline continues to deteriorate, there could be some issues with his ability to get on base frequently. Defensively, he's still a work in progress as he shifts from catching to outfielder but the tepid defense from Johnson City in 2011 was improved in Quad Cities during 2012. Garcia had the 7th best ISO of players in the Midwest League with at least 100 PAs. That kind of power is impressive and unusual for someone his age. - azru

9. Tyrell Jenkins
2012 Ranking: #3
Individual Rankings: AndyB83 - 8, azru - 12, jroman - 9

Comments:

Jenkins is another player lost in the pitching prospect mix for the Cardinals, but his upside continues to be strong for yet another season. He is still far away from the majors and still quite raw. But after just finishing his age 19 season, he’s got plenty of time to develop and no rush with the power arms ahead of him. One of these days, he will have to turn his athleticism and tools into reality. Despite the rawness, he has a career minor league K to BB ratio over 2.5. As he begins to face better hitters, he is going to be asked to do more, but he has done nothing to unravel his potential ceiling. - jroman

A few things happened last year to cause Jenkins to drop on my list: injuries prevented him from pitching a full season, he struggled to maintain mechanics and his command regressed. These things are related and, while he's young, none of them are a good sign. Jenkins probably moves up to Palm Beach in 2012 but his performance in 2013 wouldn't preclude him from simply repeating a level in Peoria. His strikeout rate continues to be good but not great for someone who was projected as a strikeout pitcher. His upside, for me, is a little lower after 2012 and the probability he reaches it is also down. - azru

8. Tyler Lyons
2012 Ranking: Unranked
Individual Rankings: AndyB83 - 10, azru - 10, jroman - 8

Comments:

Never blessed with a great ERA, Lyons’ peripherals have always pointed to something greater. In 2012, Lyons brought his best stuff to the highest level of the minors, combining career best rates in strikeouts (24.3%) and walks (4.9%). His 3.06 FIP was best among Memphis pitchers to start at least ten games. And he’s left handed, so that’s always a plus. - Andy

Tyler Lyons doesn’t jump on the page at you, but if you keep looking, you keep being impressed. His career minor league ERA is 4.27, but he had the best stretch of his career at Memphis last year as a 24 year old. As Andy said, his strikeout and walk numbers were better at the highest possible minor league level. He has no problem getting players of both handedness out, but as long as he continues to get lefthanders out, he’ll have a surefire spot in a major league bullpen. - jroman

He's got a 3.42 K/BB ratio over three seasons in the minors. Above average strikeout rates with excellent control. The one concern is he's a flyball pitcher who won't light up radar guns; does that translate from AAA to the majors? - azru

7. Matt Adams
2012 Ranking: #5
Individual Rankings: AndyB83 - 6, azru - 8, jroman - 7

Comments:

There’s not much to say about Matt Adams that hasn’t been said before. He’s a big guy, who is stuck to 1B as long as he is in the NL and might be better off playing for a team that could also use him at DH. But, that being said, his ability at 1B does not overshadow the power at the plate. He strikes out a lot and doesn’t walk much, but he’s a slugger that surprisingly still hits for a high average. He got 91 PAs in St. Louis in 2012 and should rival Taveras to be the first player up from Memphis in 2013. His power will play in the majors, period. - jroman

Adams spent about half of 2012 in Memphis. He put up some of his best power numbers to date with a .295 ISO and 18 HRs in 276 PAs. He hit for average and he hit for crazy power. That combo should work in the majors. I still wonder just how bad he'll be defensively according to metrics but that remains to be seen. He had bone chips removed from his elbow at the end of 2012. - azru

6. Michael Wacha
2012 Ranking: 2012 draftee
Individual Rankings: AndyB83 - 7, azru - 6, jroman - 5

Comments:

Michael Wacha pitched twenty one innings spread across three levels after the Cardinals made him their number one pick in 2012’s draft. Advertised as a fast-mover with a high floor, Wacha was utilized out of the bullpen to limit his work load and the outcome was incredible. He struck out more than half of the batters he faced and walked less than six percent. Furthermore, better than half of the balls put in play against him stayed on the ground. Yes, all of this is exciting, but Wacha will be asked to turn over lineups in 2013. Those results, good or bad, will probably leave us with more realistic expectations. - Andy

Wacha is the epitome of small sample size excitement after a numerically impressive 2012. The Cardinals put him in a position to succeed at all three levels, as they should after the draft and his conclusion in Springfield should hint at a start there in his age 21 season next year. Still quite young for a college draftee, Wacha should improve on his standing going forward, but do not expect him to keep up his 10/1 K to BB ratio. - jroman

Wacha wacha - Fozzie Bear

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