FanPost

Taking Viva El Birdos Top Prospects and Giving Them Top-end Projections

Position Player Prospects are really graded on 5 tools, their bat - or hit tool - (think average), their power (think ISO), their speed (think SB and BsR), their arm, and their glove (think Fangraphs' "Def" stat).


To look at those four tools (combining arm and glove into defense), I'm going to look at the current context of the 2011-2014 hitting environment and compare that to the 20-80 tools given to several Cardinals' prospects. There were 406 hitters who had at least 600 PA in that time period. The mean AVG, ISO, SB, and BsR for a player for those four years yields the 50 value on the 20-80 scale. For each 10 on the scale there is a one standard deviation change above or below the average.

The Math Behind the Exercise

"50" tools:
Bat/Hit = Batting average = .258
Power = ISO = .146
Speed = Fangraphs' BsR and SB and SB% = 0.1 BsR and 10 SB and 73%

The range of batting averages over the four seasons was .333 at the top end (Miguel Cabrera) and .192 at the bottom end (Jeff Mathis).
The range of ISO over the four seasons was .273 at the top end (Giancarlo Stanton) and .049 at the bottom end (Ben Revere).
The range of BsR over the four seasons was +13.95 per 600 PA at the top end (Jarrod Dyson) and -9.3 per 600 PA at the bottom end (Brayan Pena).
The range of SB-CS over the four seasons was +61 at the top end (Jarrod Dyson) and -3 on the bottom end (Danny Valencia).
The range of Def/600 PA was +31.3 at the top end (Juan Legares) and -23.9 at the bottom end (Lucas Duda).

Hit tool
20 = .202- avg
30 = .214- avg
40 = .233- avg
50 = ~.258 avg
60 = .281+ avg
70 = .306+ avg
80 = .321+ avg

Power Tool
20 = .050- ISO
30 = .069- ISO
40 = .100- ISO
50 = ~.146 ISO
60 = .193+ ISO
70 = .240+ ISO
80 = .265+ ISO

Speed Tool
20 = 0 SB
30 = 1 SB
40 = 3- SB
50 = 10+ SB
60 = 25+ SB
70 = 40+ SB
80 = 60+ SB

Def Tool
20 = -29.6
30 = -18.5
40 = -12.3
50 = +0.1
60 = +11.5
70 = +19
80 = +30

The Prospects with Future Redbirds' Grades

The goal in this exercise from here out is to take a look at what a "perfect season" out of each of the Cardinals' prospects would be. What do I mean by "perfect"? Well, were the player to put all of their skills together at one time for one glorious season in the majors, how good would they be in that one year - assuming the current hitting environment?


Viva El Birdos' minor league gurus in the "Future Redbirds" section went through the Cardinals' top 25 prospects this spring, according to their own beliefs. This is how they graded them.


Note: If they are ranked in MLB.com's top 30 Cardinals' prospects, their numbers are in italics below the VEB Future Redbirds grades. I did not take them into account when figuring up their statistics in the coinciding paragraph.

#24 Juan Herrera - SS
Hit - 45
Power - 40
Run - 60
Glove - 50
Arm - 55

MLB.com - 45/20/50/60/55

Herrera would play average defense at SS, the hardest position on the field, while hitting .246 on the year and a .100 ISO. That means he would have a .346 SLG. His OPS would depend on his walk rate, which was only 5.6% in the minors last year. The good news? A 25+ SB season out of Herrera would be quite nice in a lineup typically devoid of speed.

#20 Breyvic Valera - 2B
Hit - 60
Power - 35
Run - 65
Glove - 60
Arm - 50
MLB.com - 55/20/50/50/45

Another speedster, Valera would play plus defense at second base, giving the Cards a nice up the middle tandem along with Herrera. However, Valera would hit a it better. A .281 average with a .085 ISO (.366 SLG) and 30+ SB is quite good.

#19 Rowan Wick - 1B/COF (since moved to pitcher)
Hit - 40
Power - 65
Run - 40
Glove - 45
Arm - 65
MLB.com - 40/55/40/45/70

Wick would likely hit about .233 in his magical season, but with a .217 ISO, giving him a SLG of .450. He'd pick up around 3 stolen bases is all, with a below average glove and a rocket of an arm reserved for the top 15% of baseball or so - making him a right fielder in this case.

#16 Edmundo Sosa - SS (my favorite prospect's statistics to watch!)

Hit - 65

Power - 45

Run - 55

Glove - 65

Arm - 50

MLB.com - 50/35/60/55/50


I really like Sosa as a prospect - these numbers might show why. If his offensive and defensive skills peak at the same time, you're looking at a +15 defender with an average arm that puts up an average over .290 with a .125ish ISO and around 15-20 stolen bases. Edgar Renteria v2.0? - LOVED RENTERIA!


#15 Charlie Tilson - CF

Hit - 55

Power - 45

Run - 65

Glove - 60

Arm - 45

MLB.com - 55/30/65/60/50


Tilson's tools numbers play out statistically as an average around .270, an ISO around .125, with 30 steals, a +11.5 defense, and a below average arm that would play better in left than center, if he weren't so fast. As long as he can learn to release the ball quickly, that'd be great!


#14 Malik Collymore - 2B

Hit - 60

Power - 60

Run - 60

Glove - 55

Arm - 50

MLB.com - 50/40/55/50/40


Collymore seems to have a bit of pop as a second baseman, according to VEB. According to MLB.com, not so much. Here's what VEB sees his peak to be: .281 average, .193 ISO (.472 SLG), 25+ SB, 5.5-6 runs above average in the field, with an exactly league average arm. Another solid prospect here looking at peak play - his peak comp on VEB? Brandon Phillips. Not bad.


#12 Carson Kelly - C

Hit - 60

Power - 55

Run - 40

Glove - 60

Arm - 65

MLB.com - 45/40/30/55/60


Carson Kelly looks like he will have the glove and the hitting tools to be a solid major leaguer at his peak. His tools, as configured by VEB, would lead to a .281 batting avearge, .451 SLG (due to a .170 ISO), maybe 3 SB, a +11.5 defense tool with a well above average arm. That sounds like a heck of a player to have - almost like a Yadier Molina back there, with really good defense instead of generational-type defense. I'll definitely take that!


#11 Jacob Wilson - 2B (and 1B and 3B and LF and RF)

Hit - 55

Power - 55

Run - 45

Glove - 50

Arm - 55

MLB.com - 50/50/40/50/50


Going by the 5 tools, Wilson doesn't really look like the highest ceiling prospect of the bunch, but is set at #11 on the board. I think a lot of that is due to three of the tools (the 55s) already being a 50 grade on the scale. He is projected at peak to hit .270 with a .170 ISO - for a .440 SLG. That's pretty good for a middle infielder, if he sticks there. Less good in the corner IF and OF. Adding in 6-7 steals and a +0.1 defense with a slightly plus arm on D makes him quite valuable, considering in the last 5 years only 5 second basemen have hit between .260 and .280 with a SLG of .170 or better.


#10 Magneuris Sierra - CF (pronounced mahg-nair-EE, apparently)

Hit - 60

Power - 60

Run - 65

Glove - 65

Arm - 60

MLB.com - 55/40/60/60/55 (this is about as close as we've seen thus far)


This is where it gets interesting! The top 10! It also gets interesting because, DAMN, nothing below 10% above league average at peak level. Here is his tools-to-slash line comparison: .281 average, .193 ISO for a .474 SLG - from a guy who should be a 32-33 stolen base and a +15 defender with a very good arm! That's got possible MVP written all over it!


#9 Aledmys Diaz - SS

Hit - 50

Power - 50

Run - 55

Glove - 45

Arm - 50

MLB.com - not listed in Cardinals' top 30 prospects


Whoa. What is he doing here based on those numbers? That is a slightly below league average player by the tools - .258 average, .146 ISO (.404 SLG), with 10ish steals, while playing below league average defense at a premium position. The reason he's 9th then? Hype out of Cuba and the fact that his floor is probably quite a bit higher than the others on this list.


#7 Tommy Pham - OF

Hit - 55

Power - 50

Run - 60

Glove - 55

Arm - 55

MLB.com - 45/45/60/55/50


MLB.com's line is actually really close to what VEB has this time. That's kinda cool. Pham is another whose ceiling may not be seen as high as some of the others outside of the top 10, but his floor is a TON higher. Those numbers are basically his floor and ceiling - with his ceiling including being healthy and his floor where he is now - on the DL. His slash line based on this would have an average of about .270, his slugging being around .415 (ISO around 145) and his speed giving him about 25 steals a year for a club that seems to want to run about as much as Matheny did the first game...


#4 Randal Grichuk - OF (still technically a rookie!)

Hit - 50

Power - 65

Run - 50

Glove - 50

Arm - 55

MLB.com - not listed in Cardinals' top 30 prospects


Grichuk's power tool and proximity to the majors are what puts him in this company at #4 on the list. Grichuk's comparable line in the majors based on hitting all of his tools at the same time is a .258 average with a .217 ISO - for a .475 SLG! If he can even manage a .325 OBP, that'd be great. He also would be slated for league average defense with the glove and a slightly better than average arm - and be likely to swipe 10 bags or so. I'd take that out of a starting corner OF, much less a CF!


#2 Stephen Piscotty - OF

Hit - 60

Power - 55

Run - 45

Glove - 50

Arm - 60

MLB.com - 60/45/40/50/60


Basically agreed upon except for power and (to a lesser extent) speed between VEB and MLB.com. Not bad. His line would equate to .281 with a .170 ISO (.451 SLG). Assuming a somewhat good walk rate, that'd be about a .280/.350/.450 line, good for an .800 OPS or so. Considering the current scoring environment, that'd be great. You know how many guys had that line or better from 2011-2014 (min. 1500 PA)? Twenty-five. Less than one per team. Would you take that? I would!


I know that this is quite an imperfect science, but I thought it was fun and hope you all like it as well.