FanPost

Whom the Cardinals Would Protect in a Theoretical Expansion Draft

Major League Baseball has not had an expansion draft since 1997, when the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays began their existence. There hasn’t been an expansion draft in any of North America’s "big four" sports leagues since 2004, when the Charlotte Bobcats, which technically no longer exist, entered the National Basketball Association. There is very little evidence to suggest that MLB plans on expanding any time soon. But what if they were? That’s where this silly little hypothetical comes into play.

For those who do not remember the 1997 Expansion Draft (*raises hand*), here is the basic outline of how it works (cap tip to Wikipedia, the source du jour for many of johnjf125’s most hastily arranged blog posts).

1. Every existing MLB franchise gets to initially "protect" 15 players in its organization from being drafted—this includes both the 40 man roster and minor league affiliates.

2. Once a player is drafted from an existing franchise, the team may protect progressively more players, though for the sake of this exercise, I will be limiting this to the initial fifteen players protected.

3. If a player is drafted, the expansion team will inherit that player and his current contract.

4. Players drafted in the previous two drafts (2013 and 2014), as well as players signed in 2012 who were 18 or younger, are automatically protected.

Rule 4 means that if the St. Louis Cardinals were forced to subject players to an expansion draft according to 1997 rules, several important young players who would merit consideration for protected status do not require such a designation. Among the players who would be automatically protected: Marco Gonzales, Alexander Reyes, Jack Flaherty, Rob Kaminsky, and Luke Weaver. But what about the other fifteen?

For this exercise, I decided to take a mathematical approach. Now, this is not to say that it’s a good mathematical approach, but I think it’s a sensible one. I don’t agree with all of the results—I outright despise many of the results. But that doesn’t make me find the results any less interesting.

THE APPROACH

1. For a few reasons, I relied on Baseball Prospectus’s Pecota projection system heavily. I don’t really prefer Pecota over other systems from a prediction standpoint, but they do have relatively detailed future predictions. It’s one thing to look at B-P’s WARP versus, say, Steamer projected WAR, but Steamer doesn’t project many years in the future quite like Pecota.

2. I looked at currently existing contracts first and foremost. For instance, evaluations of Matt Holliday’s projected 3.3 WARP will be weighed against his $17,000,000 salary for 2015.

3. With future salaries of players still under club control—players who will reach arbitration or are currently within arbitration years—I will apply the 40-60-80 rule of thumb, which suggests that in year one of arbitration, a player will receive 40% of his market value, which I will approximate as his previous season’s WARP multiplied by $7,000,000, which should be roughly the market value of a win above replacement (this number is in and of itself a crapshoot, but regardless of what number is used, players in arbitration will generally end up being relative bargains, though less so than players within their first three MLB seasons of making league minimum, as is the case in reality). For instance, Trevor Rosenthal will be going to arbitration for the first time after this season and is projected for 0.7 WARP in 2015. 0.7*7,000,000*0.4. His 2016 salary ergo is $1.96 million. Regarding team options, I will assume the team accepts the option if it makes sense for them based on the previous season’s WARP—if a player has an option for $14 million and his WARP was greater than 2 (the point at which $14 million is the expected cost) the previous season, the team accepts. Sometimes this will backfire on the team if the player faces a decline.

4. I estimated the league minimums of 2016 and 2017 based on the formula used by MLB, which uses a multiplier of cost-of-living among the general population growth and the previous minimum salary. $515,325 for 2016 and $523,162 for 2017. This impact should be negligible, however.

5. The number that determines the top fifteen keepers is what I will label "wins above surplus", which may or may not be an actual stat that actually exists. In fact, I’m sure it does judging events which have already happened. But as for the future? I don’t know, maybe. Let’s pretend I’m inventing this on my own, though. Anyway, the calculation is fairly simple. It is Total WARP over the course of the existing contract or club control, minus expected wins given the player’s salary during that time (the player’s total salary divided by $7 million).

So anyway, let’s talk about who makes the cut and who does not.

Pitchers

KEEPERS: Michael Wacha, Trevor Rosenthal, Sam Tuivailala, Tyler Lyons.

Michael Wacha is a clear keeper, perhaps the clearest keeper on the team. He still has two more years of club control, and is estimated to be worth 6.9 wins over those two seasons. Although he would have a bit of a salary jump during arbitration, he projects to be worth at least three wins during each of those seasons. Unless you REALLY have your doubts about his health, I think most fans would not require a singular number to know that Wacha merits protection.

Trevor Rosenthal may not be quite as much of a no-brainer, but his argument is pretty simple as well. He has elite velocity and, in spite of control issues, is a solid bet to be a reliable closer with some potential to start down the road.

Tuivailala and Lyons will likely make most of you question my entire methodology, and for what it’s worth I particularly disagree with Lyons. But Pecota is particularly high on each’s production before reaching arbitration years, being worth a projected 2.2 and 1.7 wins while earning the league minimum. Tuivailala is considered a top ten prospect within the organization by Baseball Prospectus and Lyons…I’d pick Carlos Martinez in a heartbeat. Pecota, however, peculiarly is quite down on Martinez, who they project as a relatively ineffective starter who would be non-tendered upon reaching arbitration after putting up negative wins in both 2015 and 2016. As for the rest of the big-league rotation—Lance Lynn’s extension is considered to be a good but not great one. Adam Wainwright is projected to drop from a 4.2 win pitcher in 2015 to a 3.1 win pitcher in 2016 and a 2.2 win pitcher in 2017, with such a fall that he’s projected to not be worth his contract for its remainder (this shouldn’t be considered a HUGE surprise, considering he has very much been worth his contract during its early years, which is typically how a contract given to a player in his thirties works). And John Lackey is an intriguing pick, as he’s slated to make the league minimum in 2015, but his pedestrian 2015 projection (0.2 WARP) and the lack of upside that comes with one year hurts him.

Catchers

KEEPERS: None.

Now let me be very clear—Yadier Molina would be protected whether it’s the smart move or not. He’s far too popular and his departure would cause far too much resentment to justify it. But one could make the argument that while his contract will likely be a surplus overall, considering he was worthy of MVP consideration in 2012 and 2013, his contract isn’t great going forward. His 2.3 WARP for 2015 while making $15.2 million is fine but his projected 0.8 WARP and 0.9 WARP in 2016 and 2017 while earning $14.2 million is a bit scarier. Perhaps these projections are overly dramatic but considering normal catcher aging curves, they may not be quite as scary as it seems at first.

As for other catchers, there isn’t really one great standout. WARP does seem to think more highly of Ed Easley than others (projected for 2.1 total wins while making a little bit over $6 million), but not enough to hold on to him.

Infielders

KEEPERS: Matt Adams, Matt Carpenter, Greg Garcia, Ty Kelly, Jacob Wilson, Kolten Wong.

Wong is a given. Two more years at the league minimum and three years of lower-than-market arbitration salaries while putting up 14 WARP; he is the Michael Wacha of position players. And Matt Carpenter, in spite of being projected to decline every individual year between now and the end of his contract in 2020, is projected for 19.6 wins at $67.25 million, a very reasonable price. And Matt Adams still has another year at league minimum, so even if you question elements of his game (lack of walks, inability to hit lefties that aren’t Clayton Kershaw for some reason, lack of ability to play a position other than the one generally considered the easiest to play on the defensive spectrum aside from designated hitter), he will be an absolute steal for one season and hardly a ripoff for three more. And to round out the current starts, Jhonny Peralta is unlikely to match his 2014 again—the deal is worth it because 2014 happened but he’s an aging player at a position that rewards youth.

So, about the other three…

Turns out Pecota LOVES Greg Garcia. Has him worth a full win this season, which may not sound a lot but Pecota is relatively conservative and thus Greg Garcia is expected to have more value than Jaime Garcia, John Lackey, Sam Freeman, Seth Maness, and Pete Kozma COMBINED. He’s penciled in for nearly ten wins in a timeframe that will include three league minimum years. Kelly is a similar case, as is Wilson to a much lesser extent.

Outfielders

KEEPERS: Randal Grichuk, Jason Heyward, Jon Jay, Thomas Pham, Stephen Piscotty.

So you know how you absolutely hate hearing arguments about Jon Jay and Peter Bourjos? I feel the exact opposite way. I cannot get enough of them. People get so blinded in their love of (no matter their side) a clearly flawed player that they totally dismiss the value of (no matter the other side) a totally worthwhile player. It’s delightful. It is so emblematic of Cardinals Fan Privilege and I want it to never go away. And this is why I’m delighted that one of the two made the list and not the other. From a practical standpoint, it arguably makes sense to protect neither and then immediately protect one if the other is drafted but that’s not what the formula says. Between Jay and Bourjos, over the next two years, Jay is projected for 1.4 more WARP (playing time certainly plays a major role in that) and a bit over $2.6 million more in salary.

Grichuk, Pham, and Piscotty are probably somewhat self-explanatory—each is considered some level of prospect and each is assured six years of cost control. Jason Heyward, however, makes it through to the protected list in spite of only one season of club control left. But 4.8 WARP (he is the top projected player for the 2015 Cardinals) at $8.3 million is an absolute steal.

As for Matt Holliday, he is considered to be moderately not worth his remaining $51 million (assuming the club picks up his 2017 option), as he is projected for 7.1 WARP, though he is considered to have surplus value looking just at 2015 and 2016 (not to mention previous seasons on the deal, of course).

I cannot stress enough how much this is simply an experiment. This is not my list of fifteen. Here is my personal list, allowing for some personal scrutiny and discretion:

Pitchers: Lance Lynn, Carlos Martinez, Trevor Rosenthal, Michael Wacha, Adam Wainwright. Anybody who knows me knows what a Lance Lynn fanboy I am, but I think my belief that 1.5 as a highest projected WARP over the next three seasons is far too conservative. Even if WARP is correct that Martinez will struggle as a starter, and I’m not discounting the possibility, he should seemingly at worst be a worthwhile bullpen arm for two next-to-free years. And as for Wainwright, even if he misses a full season due to injury during the next four, eclipsing his projected 11 WARP is quite doable.

Catchers: Yadier Molina. Just because I said not protecting him was reasonable doesn’t mean I’d actually do it.

Infielders: Matt Adams, Matt Carpenter, Greg Garcia, Kolten Wong. I’m not quite as relatively high on Garcia as Pecota, but he’s cheap and I like the idea of taking a flyer on him. And even as I’ve grown increasingly sour on Matt Adams as a long-term first base solution and I fear the possibility of him getting an extension before proving himself a bit more, he has another few years of being well worth a very low cost.

Outfielders: Peter Bourjos, Randal Grichuk, Jason Heyward, Jon Jay, Stephen Piscotty. I got as annoyed as anybody by how much playing time Grichuk got during the 2014 playoffs, but he unquestionably has skills. Piscotty is the team’s top prospect and so it’d be hard to not include him, especially considering his importance to the franchise if the team fails to re-sign Jason Heyward. As for Heyward, in addition to his 2015 value, I enjoy the intangible value of having exclusive negotiation rights with somebody of his talent for the next year. And I’m willing to unprotect both Bourjos and Jay—in fact, I think practically speaking I’d prefer to do so. But I’m also not really dying to protect anybody else. I can be swayed. Please, somebody sway me.

Thanks for reading this far, you weirdo.