FanPost

The Birds on the Bat are a Bang for the Buck

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As you know, the Cardinals are one of the best teams in the major leagues, and they do this despite only needing a mid-level payroll. In 2013, the Cardinals tied the Red Sox for best record in baseball, at 97-65. That year the Redbirds were 11th in opening day payroll, at $116.7 Million. That was just $13 million more than average. In 2014 the Cardinals repeated as division champs, doing so on a smaller payroll, $111 million, despite the fact that total payroll increased by 11% in between those years. Average team's payroll jumped from $103.3M to $115.1M in 2014, but the Cardinals stayed good despite shedding a few million in payroll.

It's no secret why the Cardinals have been more successful than their payroll would indicate: the Cardinals have many good players that have not made it to free agency yet, and thus are making a lot less than what they would make if they were a free agent. In 2013 Matt Carpenter put up a 7 WAR season. According to Fangraphs' value tab, that performance was worth $34.4 Million. But, because Matt Carpenter had less than 3 years service time going into the season(or more specifically because of the Super 2 cut-off, 2 years and 119 days), he was paid near the league minimum, about $500,000. Jon Jay, Matt Adams, Lance Lynn, Trevor Rosenthal, Shelby Miller, and Michael Wacha are all examples of 2013 performances that heavily outweighed their salaries because their service time stipulated that they get paid just minimum wage.

2014 was no different. As a rookie, Kolton Wong joined the mix of productive underpaid players. Bourjos, despite relegated to a part time role, also contributed more than he was paid in his first year of arbitration eligibility.

But it hasn't only been the fact that non-free agent eligible players make a whole lot less money. It's also the fact that the Cardinals free agent deals have worked out well. Matt Holliday for instance, signed the biggest contract ever given out by the Cardinals, a 7 year, $120 million deal. The even-loaded deal has been one of the best $100 million+ deals ever given out, as Holliday has produced a surplus in every season. Through the first five years, the Cardinals have paid out $85 million and according to Fangraphs' value tab he has thus far accrued $109.7 of value throughout the deal. That comes out to a Surplus Value of $24.7 Million so far.

Today I'm going to use Surplus Value to show what type of discount the Cardinals will get in 2015. Surplus Value is the difference between a player's salary and how much value he either contributes. Since we are looking forward to the 2015 season, we will be looking at Projected Surplus Value, specifically those from the two best public projection systems, Steamer and Zips. To figure out one's value we will take the player's projected WAR and multiply it by this off season's cost of a win, $7.5 million by the latest estimates. We will also add $500,000 to that, as that is the cost of a replacement level player.

So, first off, position players. For the projections I have averaged the WAR/600 of every player for both Steamer and Zips, and then allocated playing time based on Fangraphs' human determined Depth Charts. Here goes:

PA WAR Value Salary Surplus Value $/WAR
Jason Heyward 595 4.6 $34.94 $8.30 $26.64 $1.70
Matt Carpenter 595 3.2 $24.58 $3.75 $20.83 $1.01
Kolten Wong 525 2.0 $15.81 $0.50 $15.31 $0.00
Yadier Molina 448 3.9 $30.01 $15.20 $14.81 $3.74
Matt Adams 535 1.6 $12.86 $0.50 $12.36 $0.00
Peter Bourjos 399 1.8 $13.82 $1.65 $12.17 $0.65
Jhonny Peralta 595 3.4 $26.20 $15.00 $11.20 $4.23
Jon Jay 420 1.6 $12.58 $4.30 $8.28 $2.36
Matt Holliday 581 3.0 $22.94 $17.00 $5.94 $5.51
Mark Reynolds 250 0.2 $2.00 $2.00 $0.00 $7.50
Randal Grichuk 255 0.6 $5.00 $0.50 $4.50 $0.00
Tony Cruz 222 0.1 $0.88 $0.77 $0.11 $5.40
Dean Anna 105 0.8 $6.13 $0.50 $5.63 $0.00
26.8 $207.76 $69.97 $137.79 $2.37

That is pretty amazing. Not one position player is under contract next year for a larger amount than what he is projected to be worth. Heywards' $26.6M Projected Surplus Value (PSV) leads all position players on the Cardinals, and indeed all Cardinals, as you will see in the next chart.

Kolton Wong's third place finish highlights something intriguing about Service Time. Wong is projected as an average player, but because of his meager salary he's a very valuable piece. As the chart shows, Kolton's services would run upwards of $16 million for one season and would also require a multi-year commitment as well. This is because on free agency even average players are scarce. We tend to think of Wong as a long-term asset, one we hope will blossom into a 3 WAR player, but getting average level production at minimum level cost is quite the short-term boon for a contending team. We have to remember that Nick Markakis, who is by all accounts average, secured $44 million this off-season. This is the MLB we live in. We expect similar production from Wong, and at $43.5 million less total commitment.

But it's not all cost-controlled pre-free agent eligible players. Grizzled veteran Yadi Molina is right behind Wong. Fangraphs' value tab on Molina shows a big first contract year in 2013, offering $27.6M value. Last year was down year for Yadi, but he still eeked out some Surplus Value, with a value of $16.8 Million compared to a salary of $15 million.

The $/WAR is there mostly to analyze overall effeciency that can be compared to other teams. No team finances their roster entirely from free agent signings. Last year, total salaries were $3.45B, and both Fangraphs and Baseball Reference use a total of 1000 WAR each season. So the average cost of a win, in all markets combined, came to $3.45 Million. That is expected to grow in 2015. Last year as I mentioned, salaries grew by 11%. A similar jump next year puts us at $3.83 Million per WAR. The Cardinals position player score of $2.36/WAR comes in significantly more efficient than the league average for acquiring talent. If the Cardinals paid an average league cost for their 26.8 position player WAR it would cost $92.5 Million. If they bought it all on the free agent market it would cost over $200 million.

Now on to the pitchers:

IP WAR Value Salary Surplus Value $/WAR
John Lackey 179 2.6 $19.81 $0.50 $19.31 $0.19
Michael Wacha 150 2.3 $17.75 $0.50 $17.25 $0.22
Lance Lynn 179 2.7 $20.86 $7.00 $13.86 $2.58
Carlos Martinez 122 1.4 $11.34 $0.50 $10.84 $0.35
Trevor Rosenthal 65 1.1 $8.96 $0.50 $8.46 $0.44
Marco Gonzales 81 0.9 $6.96 $0.50 $6.46 $0.58
Adam Wainwright 169 3.3 $25.06 $19.50 $5.56 $5.96
Tyler Lyons 48 0.5 $3.90 $0.50 $3.40 $1.10
Kevin Siegrist 45 0.3 $2.87 $0.50 $2.37 $1.58
Jordan Walden 55 0.5 $4.49 $2.68 $1.81 $5.04
Seth Maness 55 0.2 $2.30 $0.50 $1.80 $2.08
Tim Cooney 28 0.2 $2.23 $0.50 $1.73 $2.16
Sam Tuivailala 30 0.1 $1.53 $0.50 $1.03 $3.65
Randy Choate 65 0.4 $3.25 $3.00 $0.25 $8.18
Matt Belisle 35 0.1 $1.50 $3.50 -$2.00 $26.28
Jaime Garcia 18 0.2 $2.23 $9.38 -$7.15 $40.59
16.9 $135.04 $50.06 $84.98 $2.96

Mostly more of the same, except this time we finally find a couple Deficit Value salaries. Predictably, Jaime Garcia isn't projected to spend enough time healthy to justify his $9.38 Million salary.

Lackey and Wacha, on the strength of a good projection and minimum salary leads the pack in terms of Surplus Value. Lynn comes in a little higher than both on raw value, but his $7 million salary brings him down to third. Martinez and Rosenthal provide strong values at key roles as the fifth starter and closer. Marco Gonzales, as a strong option for 6th starter and also projected for bullpen time, is another key resource in gaining more Surplus Value.

But it's not only the main contributors who make additions to Projected Surplus Value. Siegrist, Maness, Lyons, and Cooney all look to add on more Surplus Value despite having very limited roles, either middle relievers or rotation depth optons, both which will have to wait their turn with Marco Gonzales getting first crack. Despite all of them making the same salary as a replacement-level player, these four are projected to pitch 176 innings and provide 1.2 WAR. These small contributions from all four provide a Surplus Value of $9.32 Million. This is a lesson on layering depth from John Mozeliak.

Total both categories and get a great picture of the efficiency the Front Office has created with the 2015 roster. Combine both the position players and pitchers and you get a total $/WAR of $2.74, which when compared to the $3.83M projected figure from earlier is 28.4% more efficient than the average team. That's nearly 44 WAR at a cost of nearly $120 million. To construct the same amount of WAR at the league average rate would cost $167 Million, a $47 million jump with regards to this year's payroll.

It's not all about Surplus Value

Yes, that is true, it's not all about Surplus Value. What it's all really about, is acquiring enough WAR to be a contender, both for your division and the World Series. It's just that Surplus Value is an incredibly important tool with regards to building a contender with a mid-level payroll. Let's see another chart. This is no new information, just information presented in a slightly different way. Here's all the Cardinals' pre-arbitration players, with the same information, just all grouped together:

WAR Surplus Value
Michael Wacha 2.3 $17.25
Kolten Wong 2.0 $15.31
Matt Adams 1.6 $12.36
Carlos Martinez 1.4 $10.84
Trevor Rosenthal 1.1 $8.46
Marco Gonzales 0.9 $6.46
Dean Anna 0.8 $5.63
Randal Grichuk 0.6 $4.50
Tyler Lyons 0.5 $3.40
Kevin Siegrist 0.3 $2.37
Seth Maness 0.2 $1.80
Tim Cooney 0.2 $1.73
Sam Tuivailala 0.1 $1.03
12.2 $91.13

Incredible. 12 wins coming just from pre-arbitration players. This is the foundation of the Front Office's strategy of securing wins at the most efficient rate. These guys cost a total of $6.5 Million next year. Well, actually less than as they won't all spend the whole year at the major league level. But it's close enough with amounts this small relative to the Baseball Economy. Working with the totals, that leaves the resulting arbitration and free agent players 32 wins at a cost of $113 million. This really illustrates the importance of Surplus Value. The valued contributions of all these pre-arb players help free up the rest of the roster for heavier investments to shore up the rest of the roster. Next, add in the arbitration-eligible players:

WAR Value Salary Surplus
Matt Carpenter 3.2 $24.58 $3.75 $20.83
Lance Lynn 2.7 $20.86 $7.00 $13.86
Peter Bourjos 1.8 $13.82 $1.65 $12.17
Jon Jay 1.6 $12.58 $4.30 $8.28
Jordan Walden 0.5 $4.49 $2.68 $1.81
Tony Cruz 0.1 $0.88 $0.77 $0.11
9.9 $77.22 $20.15 $57.07

Some more sweet, sweet Surplus Value. The three position players and rotation member all provide a lot of help towards getting a lot of value for not that much salary. Taking all non-free agent eligible players, we now have 22 wins at a cost of under $27 million. With a head start like this, the Cardinals are able to sink the rest of their payroll into the most expensive mode of acquiring wins: the free agent market.

WAR Value Salary Surplus Value $/WAR
John Lackey 2.6 $19.81 $0.50 $19.31 $0.19
Yadier Molina 3.9 $30.01 $15.20 $14.81 $3.74
Jhonny Peralta 3.4 $26.20 $15.00 $11.20 $4.23
Adam Wainwright 3.3 $25.06 $19.50 $5.56 $5.96
Matt Holliday 3.0 $22.94 $17.00 $5.94 $5.51
Randy Choate 0.4 $3.25 $3.00 $0.25 $8.18
Mark Reynolds 0.2 $2.00 $2.00 $0.00 $7.50
Matt Belisle 0.1 $1.50 $3.50 -$2.00 $26.28
Jaime Garcia 0.2 $2.23 $9.38 -$7.15 $40.59
17.1 $133.00 $85.08 $47.92 $4.97

This is the fruit of the Cardinals' efficiency in player development. The Cardinals have $85 million invested in free agent salaries this year. With Holliday, Molina, Peralta, and Wainwright, the Cardinals were able to secure four 3 WAR players during their free agent years, costing the bulk of their free agent expenditures. Those four will cost $67 million in 2015. The fact that the Cardinals are able to fill so many holes at cheap prices means they can have a few good to great players rather than spreading the money around to several players.

Put it this way. Pre-arb and arbitration-eligible players have filled out 5 starting position players, 3 starting pitchers, 4 bench spots, 6 bullpen spots, and 3 rotation depth options who are all above replacement level. Despite all those positions filled and projecting to produce 22 WAR, all those players only cost a total of $27 million. The rest of the payroll ($85 million) is then freed up to be spent on the remaining 3 position players and 2 starting pitchers, plus a few minor roles.

And while we have some duds at even value contracts in there, the overall efficiency is still there. Even though the price of a win on the free agent market was $7.5 million this offseason, we go into this year with our free agent expenditures projecting to cost a smidge less than $5 million/WAR this year. This is a testament to the Front Office's long-term planning. They could see the market prices going up and acted quickly to secure their stars at rates that looked questionable at the time, but now are seen to be discounts. Molina and Wainwright's contracts very much meet that description. Holliday and Peralta are more of cases where the Cardinals saw more in them than the rest of the league did.

Even with the development prowess of the Cardinals, and their love of cost-controlled talent, free agent players are still the category with the most wins. Of course, they also come at the least efficient cost. That however ignores the fact that, without all of the value produced by the pre-arb and arb players, those wins wouldn't get them as close to another division title as they look to now.

Looking forward

I'm not going to lie to you though, things are set to change in future. Heyward and Lackey are only under control for one more year, and they represent the biggest surplus value on the position players side and pitching side. I'm very much on the side of extending Heyward. He will however be a lot of more expensive than the $8.3 million he's set to make in 2015. But with Garcia, Choate, Belisle, and Reynolds, all minor role players coming off the books, there's some extra money. Those four salaries plus Heyward's totals $26 million. You can give Heyward $21 million for the first year of his extension and you still have $5 million, which nearly covers the schedules raises for Marp and Jon Jay. That leaves you still needing a little money to fill the minor holes left behind of course, and that extra cost represents efficiency lost from 2015 to 2016.

The pitching side requires a little more faith in our young arms. Lackey's Surplus Value will be gone, but much of a difference could be made up from Marco Gonzales stepping into a rotation spot. Recall that Gonzales is projected here for 0.9 WAR over 81 innings. Over 179 innings, which is Lackey's projected inning total in 2014, that would be nearly 2 WAR. Wacha and Martinez, projected at 155 and 122 innings respectively, would also see their overall value jump from the ability to throw more innings a year. In that sense, full, productive seasons from Wacha, Martinez, and Gonzales would allow us to retain most the Surplus Value Lackey is set to produce in 2014. If one of these three turns out to be someone they can't depend on as a starter though, then they will be forced to look at the free agent market for an arm.

Beyond that we will see Adams and Rosenthal enter arbitration in 2016 which will begin a slow cut into their Surplus Value. This will add $4-$5 million to the books in 2016. Wainwright, Holliday, Molina, and Peralta will experience some age-related decline. But overall we will see a 2016 team that offers a similarly large amount of Surplus Value and secures wins at a much more efficient rate than average.