FanPost

The Top Five Cardinals Prospects at Every Minor League Level

When people rank prospects, they usually do it by bunching everyone up, and it seems stupid that a 25-year-old in Triple-that's about to make his MLB debut could be listed in the same category as an 18-year-old that hasn't played higher than GCL that made the list because of his "upisde." So, yeah, this article differs from conventional baseball wisdom, and when this whole thing is as big as Moneyball, you readers can say that you witnessed the first usage of it. (And before I get abused in the comment section for that lame attempt at humor, it was a joke. There will not be a move about how to list prospects.) And one more thing, a lot of people like to go swimming in sabermetrics in these kinds of posts, but I'm just going to keep things simple for the sake of other people like me who just care about the basic statistics. (Please keep reading.) Whichever level a player is listed in is determined by where they had the majority of their last 55 innings pitched, or 50 at-bats.

Triple-A: Memphis Redbirds---When prospects are graded in the lower levels, they are graded purely on upside, but in Double-A and higher, people tend to look at previous performance when placing prospects on lists like these. I'll take into consideration that these people are going to be better in two years than they are now, but for this level and the one below it, previous performance will be taken into the most consideration. And just so everyone knows, I'm not putting Greg Garcia on, because while he is still technically a rookie next year, he did spend the majority of the last month in another level. Okay, without futher ado, here's number one.

1. Marco Gonzales, LHP---Gonzales taking number one shouldn't shock anyone, and for a good reason. Before 2015, his performance had been consistent throughout the minor leagues. He dominated at every level in his first full season before getting the call-up only little over a year after he was drafted. He went 4-2 with a 4.15 ERA in ten games, half of which were starts, before making the postseason roster and winning a pair of NLDS games. When Adam Wainwright went down earlier this year, I was one of the people who assumed that Gonzales would be assuming the fifth-starter position, as soon as he finished his rehabilitation from a couple of stints on the DL early in the year. After performing well in the lower levels, he returned to Memphis and was pretty much hammered for the rest of the year, before making one start in the bigs in which he allowed four runs and couldn't get out of the third inning.

Gonzales is the latest Cardinal pitcher with a great changeup and solid control, and his offspead deliveries are the main reason that he's this high on the list, as well as the fact that Memphis isn't really teeming with prospects. I think he'll be able to recover from his struggles this season, but I'm not going to deny that his performance has been hugely disappointing and I believe that his spot in the starting rotation should be limited to the sixth starter until he starts to show some more improvement.

2. Tim Cooney, LHP---He was drafted in the third round of the 2012 Draft, and his performance in the minors has been, in two words: consistent and solid. The and doesn't count as a word. He made it to Memphis in 2014 and pitched well, and improved this year before making his MLB debut. He pitched well in his six MLB starts, and definitely would have been an upgrade over Tyler Lyons in the sixth-starter position this September had he not gotten injured.

The best way to sum up Tim Cooney is that he is the lite version of Marco Gonzales. He has a plus-changeup that isn't on par with Gonzales's, but is still fine, and his control is plus but not as good as his fellow lefty. And that's pretty much it. I would not be surprised if he ends up better than Gonzales in the long run because of how awful Marco was for much of the year, but I'm thinking that he's going to end up in the sixth-starter spot, in the bullpen, or traded.

3. Anthony Garcia, OF---Sorry, Zach Petrick, Arturo Reyes, and Aledmys Diaz fans. I just think that this guy has more value in the long-term for the Cardinals than any of those guys. So he basically bombed the 2013 and 2014 seasons, but when he made the jump to Springfield and eventually Memphis this year, he finally performed. He was an eighteenth-round pick in 2009, and I think he's been a great return on the Cardinals' investment so far. He's the best outfield prospect to reach Memphis since Stephen Piscotty. He has solid power, and hit .283 between two levels last year. He also has solid plate discipline, which led to a .391 OBP between the two levels last year as well.

When listing prospects, I also take into consideration how useful that prospect will be to the organization which he is in. Do the Cardinals really need Petrick and Arturo Reyes when they have young pitchers already in the show and several more following them there? No. What Garcia will provide for the Cardinals is a solid addition to the bench, which needs a serious upgrade over Kozma, Bourjos, and all the other players that have made us cringe all year long.

Garcia struggled for two years, but it looks like he's back on track, and right now, the Cardinals will gladly welcome more solid position players onto the squad.

4. Sam Tuivailala, RHP---I know everyone's probably calling for my head because of that last pick, but here's one that some people may actually agree with. After being drafted as a shortstop, Tuivailala converted to the mound and it looks like that was a good decision, as he has developed into one of the best relief pitchers in the Cardinals system. His fastball is stupendously fast, his curveball is pretty good, and yes, his changeup and control need work.

There's not really much to say about him. His fastball is on par with Trevor Rosenthal's if not better, and that's basically why he's on this list. He pitched well during his small sample size in 2015, and he is going to be a valuable asset for this team for years to come.

5. Zach Petrick, RHP</strong>---I had to get this success story on here somehow. Petrick went undrafted in 2012, and the Cardinals snagged him, and he pretty much just pitched superbly all the way throughout the minor leagues. His strikeout totals may have dropped once he reached Memphis. His ERA may have gone up four-hundred points. He may be 26 years old. He might have never pitched in the majors. To be honest, I was shocked that the Cardinals never turned to him to make a start during the week in which they decided to rest Wacha and Martinez.

In most organizations, Petrick would probably already be the fifth starter. He won the Cardinals 2013 Minor League Pitcher of the Year Award, and in an organization in which arms are always at the ready, that's a pretty great accomplishment. He'll definitely be in the majors sometime in 2015, and while he may not be the out-of-nowhere All-Star that Lance Lynn became, he will be solid.

Double-A: Springfield Cardinals---Still mostly going on previous performance. Upside will be taken into account, but like the Memphis top five, these players are being judged on their past.

1. Alex Reyes, RHP---It doesn't take a genius to know that Reyes is by far the top prospect in the Cardinals' organization. I could go on and on about his 102 MPH fastball, his spectacular breaking ball, but his noticeable lack of command, but really, all of that has already been said.

I do have to emphasize, though, how awesome Reyes is going to be if he gets his control down. I mean, he's performed better than Carlos Martinez in some areas, especially strikeout totals. Martinez battled control problems during his rise to the minors as well, and though his command is still shaky, it is no longer a major issue. We'll see how good Reyes actually is in the Arizona Fall League this year, and if he performs as well as he did this past year, I don't think anyone will be able to deny that he is something special, and deserves to be in the same conversation as Lucas Giolito and Tyler Glasnow.

2. Charlie Tilson, OF---I see all these Peter Bourjos comparisons popping up, and I'm immediately appalled, but then I read further and the person ends up saying that he can hit better than the Cardinals' late-inning defensive replacement. Tilson was terrific in Springfield this past year. The 46 stolen bases would already be enough to classify him as a top prospect, but the slash line of .295/.351/.388 to go along with them makes him all the better.

A lot of people see him as a pinch-runner, fourth outfielder type of guy, and he would definitely be an upgrade over both our fourth outfielder (whether it's Bourjos or Jay) and our pinch-runner, Kozma. If the Cardinals end up resigning Jason Heyward, then he probably won't see much starting time at all, given the number of outfielders already on the roster. A speedy stolen-bases guy, as in a pure base stealer, is something that the Cardinals haven't had in a number of years and I think Tilson will certainly bring excitement to the club once he arrives.

Sure, his slugging percentage and home run totals are low, and that's been somewhat disappointing, but he already has tools in the field, run, and hit for average, so I think the lack of power isn't very problematic.

3. Patrick Wisdom, 3B---From what I've seen and heard, this guy decided to develop only in the field and forget about everything else. And he is a superb third baseman. His arm is about as strong as most people I've seen, and he makes good plays. Really, though, when I try to say good things about all these prospects, saying that they can field may not generate very much excitement.

Wisdom's not terrible with the bat. He did hit just .237 last year, but he also knocked 14 home runs and drove in 61. However, he does have a problem with his plate discipline. He only walked 35 times last year, in comparison to 107 strikeout, so to me, he sounds like the Matt Carpenter that cannot walk and hits for less power.

He feels like the kind of player who will make it to the majors and win the starting position somewhere simply because of a lack of competition, then he'll perform badly and the Cardinals will spend the whole offseason looking for an upgrade. He's also 24 years old, and MLB.com <http://mlb.com/> predicts he won't be in the majors until 2017. Now, old prospects coming to the majors are never a bad thing (David Freese is an example), but if it takes him that long, then obviously there's a problem with his development.

4. Mike Ohlman, C---It's either this guy or Carson Kelly (more on him later) who will end up as the heir to Yadier Molina. Just like Yadi, Ohlman is extremely slow, having stolen just 11 bases in six minor league seasons. This isn't a problem from the catcher's position, but it may point to an earlier end to his career, just because people slow in their youth seem to get old much quicker. The Cardinals bought Ohlman from the Orioles earlier this year, and I think it was a good investment. His batting average was around the .280-.290 range all year before a slump at the very end brought it down to a still-respectable .273. He hit 12 dingers, which are always nice to have.

Ohlman would be a serious defensive downgrade from Yadier Molina. He doesn't throw out as many runners, and he allows a passed ball from time to time. Let's just say that in this area, Carson Kelly has him beat, and therefore will probably be more desirable to Mike Matheny to be the catcher of the future, leaving Ohlman as his backup.

5. Arturo Reyes, RHP---Oh yeah, that Reyes. Arturo Reyes was the Cardinals' last selection in the 2013 Draft, out of Gonzaga, where he pitched on the same staff as Marco Gonzales. He doesn't strike out a whole lot of batters, but all his other stats this year were superb, going 7-7 with a 2.64 ERA in Springfield and 1-1 with a 2.45 ERA in Palm Beach before being called up to Memphis, where he was hammered in five starts to end up with a 3.56 overall ERA between the three levels.

He locates his fastball, and that's an underrated pitching tool. He got the misfortune of pitching on a weak Springfield staff until ALEX Reyes arrived, and also of having the same last name of the Cardinals' top prospect. His composure is still great, and he gets out of jams, and he should make his debut in St. Louis within the next two years.

High-A: Palm Beach Cardinals---Now, upside starts to become more of a factor. The Cardinals had a great staff early in the year until Reyes got promoted and Rob Kaminsky got traded. They still made it to the playoffs, and there are plenty of fine prospects there. Number one was easy, then everything after that was extremely difficult.

1. Luke Weaver, RHP---Luke Weaver's rise through the minors has not gone the way most people expected it to. With the way that Michael Wacha and Marco Gonzales had gotten to the majors quickly, everyone thought Weaver would be the next one to do it. We were wrong. Weaver, 22, posted an 8-5 record with a 1.62 ERA this year and never made it out of Palm Beach. Why? Don't ask me.

Weaver, like most Cardinal pitching prospects, has a good changeup. Some people have doubts in his curveball, but hey, he's not going to be in the bigs until 2017, so I think that issue will be fixed. Weaver hits 97 on the gun occasionally, but lacks consistency on his fastball. He struck out only 88 batters in 105.1 Palm Beach innings last year, which may point at trouble to come in the future. Nevertheless, I think this is another guy whose ceiling is a middle-of-the-rotation starter but I don't think he'll end up there because of the superior arms in the system and young starters Wacha and Martinez already in the majors.

2. Luis Perdomo, RHP---He wasn't as good in the second half as he was in the first, and he struggled after making the jump to this level, but Perdomo still seems like a good prospect in the Cardinals system, even if he's a generic one. I don't know how many times I've already said "he throws hard. His slider/curveball is good. His changeup is good. His control is good."

I'm just as tired of saying it as you guys are of hearing it. Perdomo pitched in the Futures' Game. He replaced Reyes as the Cardinals' representative because Reyes was hurt. He's an international signing. Yay for having so many pitchers that they kind of get generic after a while.

3. Carson Kelly, C---His bat was dormant almost all year before he came to life in the last few weeks of the season. He hit .219 and his OBP, yes OBP was .263. He's slow. He's incapable of walking. But the redeeming factor is his defense. The Cardinals brought up Yadi for his defense, and Tony LaRussa even said that he didn't care if Yadi hit .000; he would still be the starting catcher.

Kelly has Ohlman beat everywhere except for offense. He may never learn to hit. But we won't remember Molina for his offense. We'll remember him for handling the pitchers and throwing out runners. Yadier's ability to handle pitchers is why the staff is so good. This makes Kelly the easy, well, maybe not that easy, decision for the catcher of the future.

4. Corey Littrell, LHP---Man, that John Lackey trade was lopsided. In addition to Lackey, the Cardinals received Littrell in the deal that sent Allen Craig and Joe Kelly to the Boston Red Sox. Littrell's an incredibly underrated player, just because all the attention in the Palm Beach staff was going to Weaver, Reyes, and Kaminsky when he was really pitching well early in the year.

Littrell's a ground ball pitcher. He doesn't walk many people, and he doesn't strike out many people. He's another guy that you shouldn't expect to see in the starting rotation when Wainwright, Garcia, Lynn, and Lackey are gone. He may be that guy you bring in with a runner on first because you just know that he's going to get a double play.

5. Trey Nielsen, RHP---Another. Freaking. Pitcher. Nielsen throws hard. Nielsen went 9-6 with a 2.59 ERA this year, out of both the starting rotation and the bullpen. He's 24. He's probably not going to make it to the bigs for a while. Next!

Single-A: Peoria Chiefs---Holy moly, this team was talented. They made it to the playoffs, Flaherty was awesome, Bader and DeJong killed it, Oscar Mercado stole a base about every ten seconds. (Calming down now.) I'm going to put players from A Short Season on here too, beause I really don't feel like writing about five more people that will all probably be pitchers. Anyway, when I think Class A Short Season I think scrubs. So don't count on seeing any of your very favorite State College Spikes here or anywhere else on this list.

1. Jack Flaherty, RHP---Man, this kid is good. The second of the Cardinals' two 2014 first-round selections, Flaherty undboubtedly has emerged as the ace of the lower levels and almost definitely has a higher ceiling than Luke Weaver. In his age 19 season in Peoria this year, he went 9-3 with a 2.84 ERA, and 97 strikeouts in 95 innings.

Given that many of the people he was facing were twenty-one years old or higher, and that he was better than Reyes in his age-19 season in Peoria in all categories except for ones with the word strikeout in them, and he tallied more strikeouts than Kaminsky when he was the same age at the same level, I think Flaherty is something special. Assuming he'll be following the Reyes path from now on, he'll be in Springfield by the end of next year and the majors in 2017 or 2018.

2. Harrison Bader, OF---This pick already looks like a steal for the Birds. The Cards took Bader 100th overall in the 2015 Draft, and he played a major role in getting Peoria to the playoffs, hitting .301 with 9 home runs and 15 stolen bases in 54 games. I've heard a few Randal Grichuk comparisons, but Stephen Piscotty seems like a more appropriate comp.

He seems to be developing some more power as he gets older. He'll probably end up a bit closer to Grichuk in that regard, but when people think Grichuk, they think of a lined shot into Big Mac Land. That isn't Bader. I see him cracking MLB's Top 100 before he gets to the bigs, but I wouldn't drop dead in shock if he ends up as an average player.

3. Paul DeJong, 3B---Drafted after Bader in the 2015 Draft, he too ended up in Peoria and put up solid numbers by the end of the year. He hit .288 and stole 13 bases, so he kind of looks like Bader Lite. I could totally see him end up at third base or even first in the future, but his slowness and his low hit grade certainly has a chance at slowing him down in getting there.

4. Oscar Mercado, SS---It's between him, Aledmys Diaz, and Edmundo Sosa to decide who will be the starting shortstop long-term. Diaz has more power, and Sosa has a better bat, but Mercado is exponentially faster than either of them. The 20-year-old swiped exactly 50 bases and hit .254 in a solid season. Tilson may be the better base-stealer simply because he's at a higher level, but Mercado is better than anyone else in the lower levels. Like the Springfield outfielder, he lacks power but is a slick fielder.

5. Austin Gomber, Matt Pearce, Ian McKinney, LHP, RHP, RHP---While Flaherty garnered all the headlines in Peoria, this trio put up solid numbers all year long. Gomber won 15 games, Pierce won 11, and McKinney won 8. All three had ERAs under 3, with Pearce getting the lowest at 2.43. All three should be in Palm Beach next year, and are basically the definition of underrated prospect. McKinney is the only one to have thrown less than 130 innings, and the only major concern for any of them is that Pearce's strikeout totals are alarmingly low--95 in 144.2 innings. Other than that, can't wait to see all of them either traded or in the bullpen one day, with maybe one of them getting lucky and earning a spot in the starting role.

Rookie League: Johnson City Cardinals---So yeah, pretty much going on ceiling now.

1. Magneuris Sierra, OF---I was really hoping that he would do well at Peoria this year. I tried to convince myself all year that he was doing fine. Maybe he should have gone down to State College instead of Johnson City, so he would face a little more competition. He's still only 19. He's got a bright future ahead of him.

Sierra is regarded by many to be the Cardinals' top hitting prospect since Oscar Taveras (RIP). His approach is geared towards line drives and he has solid gap power. He's a pretty fast runner, and though he only stole 19 bases this year, like Tilson and Mercado, he should start stealing more as he progresses through the minors. Neither Tilson nor Mercado had ever stolen an extreme amount of bases until 2015, so Sierra looks like a player who could accomplish that.

He's a plus fielder, and has the speed and the arm to stay in center. His plate discipline is a liability, but that should improve as he rises through the system. He hit just 5 home runs last year, but more power may come over time.

2. Edmundo Sosa, SS---At the age of 19 like Sierra, Sosa hit .300 with 7 dingers and a .369 OBP. That's really all that can be said about him as of yet, because he is incredibly raw. He is also a plus-runner and swift fielder, and more stolen bases should be expected from him as time goes by.

3. Ronnie Williams, RHP---The third of the three 19-year-olds in Johnson City, Williams was selected by the Cards in Round 2 of the 2014 Draft. Right now, he's about as raw as they come. He has a great heater, but he lacks a quality secondary pitch and needs a little bit of help with his control. Many people expected him to be in Peoria by season's end, but Flaherty won that position, and the rest of the Single-A starting rotation was too good to move someone to the bullpen.

He got this far because he throws hard, but let's face it, everyone throws hard nowadays. I see him developing a good curveball just because that seems to be a pitch that the organization particularly emphasizes.

4. Ryan Helsley, RHP---A fifth-rounder this year, he got everyone excited basically because he throws heat, triple-digit heat. And when he got to Johnson City, he was terrific. In 11 games, 9 of which were starts, he had a 2.01 ERA and struck out 35. Apparently he has a good curveball but he gets prone to hanging it. Simply for the heat, he sounds like an often-injured power reliever of the future, maybe replacing Trevor Rosenthal when he leaves if Tuivailala doesn't take care of it.

5. Eliezer Alvarez, 2B---He turns 21 this winter and will probably start in Peoria next year. He hit .314 this year, and showed signs of some sort of speed with 9 swipes. His most notable statistic is probably his 20 doubles in 52 games, which instantly makes everyone think Matt Carpenter--not this new one who will probably get caught for steroids in the future, but the 2013 one that set a club record for second basemen with 55 two-baggers.

Alvarez can hit, he may get lost in the shuffle, and I really don't know a lot about him, so I guess this is where I'll stop and go to GCL.

Gulf Coast League: GCL Cardinals---Allen Cordoba won GCL MVP, and Fernandez, Alcantara, and Plummer made the Top 20 List. Good team. Mostly ceiling now, and I'm sorry to all of you Bryce Denton fans, because his early performance was a huge turn-off for me.

1. Nick Plummer, OF---Shortly after the Draft, after being just as mad as The Red Baron that we didn't get Walker Buehler, I finally decided that Plummer might be good. I heard all these reports saying that he was going to be #1 overall until he got in a slump this year, and questions about his defense arose.

We're in the lower minor leagues right now, so no one cares about defense. I want to talk about Plummer's bat. You see his .228 batting average and the high strikeout totals, and you roll your eyes at me. But the .379 OBP is incredible, and it looks like it belongs to someone who owns a much better batting average.

He improved massively as the end of the season neared, and his late performance is a good sign. I've heard comparisons ranging from Shin-Soo Choo to J.D. Drew, and really, any of those guys sound good to me.

2. Junior Fernandez, RHP---Most people would have ranked Woodford or Alcantara over him, but I'm giving Fernandez the edge over these guys because he's younger. Fernandez's fastball tops out at triple digits, his changeup is a plus, and though his curveball is not exactly awesome yet, it will get better (just read about all the ten-thousand pitchers I've already talked about for proof on that. He also made a cameo in Palm Beach, and between the two levels, he struck out 63 in 57.2 innings. He'll likely start in Peoria this year, and to me, he looks like a slightly worse version of Alex Reyes. The ceiling is high, the fastball is superb, but he is raw.

3. Jake Woodford, RHP---The latest pitcher the Cards took in the first round, Woodford threw 94 as a high school senior, and will only be turning 19 this October. The last three high school pitchers selected by the Cardinals were Shelby Miller (success), Tyrell Jenkins (2015 Atlanta Braves Minor League Pitcher of the Year), and Jack Flaherty (star in the making). So I think placing Woodford this high is justified.

Woodford has solid stamina, and the innings-eater description makes him sound a lot like Lance Lynn. He's been a pretty valuable player during this mini-dynasty that the Cardinals have enjoyed. I'll be watching him in Peoria (hopefully) next year.

4. Allen Cordoba, SS---Gulf Coast League MVP. .342 batting average. 11 stolen bases. He's a hitter. Sierra put up better numbers in GCL, so hopefully we'll have him start in Johnson City next year, and then let him work his way to Single-A. He didn't crack the GCL Top 20 Prospects List, which seems odd because he won the MVP. 19 is somewhat old for GCL, and maybe that's the reason he didn't make the list.

5. Sandy Alcantara, RHP---He's 20 now. His strikeout totals were low. Those are the only two reasons that I can think of, but for some reason I just believe that Alcantara is going to bust before he gets to the bigs. I'd love to say I've predicted this sort of fate in the past and been correct, but I haven't. He just feels kind of incomplete, and not raw incomplete.

Oh, what the heck, he throws hard, he'll be in the bullpen.

Dominican Summer League: DSL Cardinals---Name one player on the DSL Cardinals. 3...2...1...Time's up! You couldn't name one. Which is why I'm not going to write anything for this level except one quick little thing.

So Alex Reyes is like, Carlos Martinez clone. Well, the Cardinals signed Alvaro Seijas this summer, and he throws 94 at the age of freaking 16, and he already has a good curveball. Get ready for Carlos 3. Just keep these guys rolling in.

So there you go, the top five prospects at every minor league level. Rant about my terrible opinions in the comments. I would love for everyone who reads this to comment about their favorite prospects at each level and debate. I get that you have lives, and this list kind of sucked at points, but I spent two days of my life on this list (I'm a loser, I know), and I'd like to know what people think of it. Go Cards.