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Matheny, and the Cardinals' Bunting Strategy

Since Mike Matheny took over the managerial role in 2012, I have been against his use of the bunt. Not only has he taken the bat out of the hands of good hitters, he has also made it harder for the Cardinals to put up runs.

Before I delve into why Matheny is hurting the Cardinals, I am going to congratulate him for doing a few things. For one thing, he has picked up right where La Russa left off in terms of going deep into the playoffs. The wins have also been there, which is something that is hard to come by at the major league level. On those two counts alone, one could say that Matheny has filled the role quite nicely and I would be the first to agree with that statement.

But, I also feel that Matheny, even with his success, could be more successful if he changed up the way he uses the bunt. I realize that the Cardinals play National League baseball and until a DH is implemented or pitchers start hitting better, there will always be a need for pitchers to move runners over. When the position players are up, well, that's a different story.

Most recently, in last night's game against Milwaukee, Peter Bourjos was up there bunting after Molina hit a leadoff double to start the 9th. The run expectancy stats from Baseball Prospectus this season show that giving up an out doesn't increase the chances of getting that runner home. It's the same story when you look at the win expectancy stats. The probabilities just aren't as good even after moving the runner up.

Even though the Cardinals ended up winning the game in the 13th, Bourjos still stuck out on a foul bunt and the Cardinals didn't end up getting that run across. Similar scenarios have occurred this season, usually with the same result. Even with these bunting problems, the Cardinals have still found a way to get to where they are now. In one-run games, the Cardinals are 29-22 this year, which is a better winning percentage than the one that they currently own (.568 to .556). If Matheny would let his players hit more in these spots, who knows where the Cardinals might be.