FanPost

The 2014 Cardinals at the 3/4 Pole v. Ben Cerutti's Projections

Catchers


Yadier Molina

Projected

.313/.358/.483/.841

6.4% BB rate, 9.7% K rate, .322 BABIP, .170 ISO


Actual - 335 PAs, .287/.341/.409/.751

6.6% BB rate, 12.5% K rate, .310 BABIP, .122 ISO


Yadi is now injured and his stats will not change until September at the earliest.


Tony Cruz

Projected

.231/.265/.340/.605

3.9% BB rate, 18.1% K rate, .271 BABIP, .109 ISO


Actual - 116 PAs, .214/.289/.262/.552

9.5% BB rate, 19.0% K rate, .272 BABIP, .049 ISO


Cruz's walk rate is astonishing to me this year - his ratio with BB/K is amazing. However, he's not driving the ball when he hits it. His ISO is terrible.


AJ Pierzynski

Projected (new)

.267/.300/.417/.716

3.3% BB rate, 14.6% K rate, .284 BABIP, .150 ISO


Actual - 46 PAs, .302/.348/.395/.743

6.5% BB rate, 13.0% K rate, .333 BABIP, .093 ISO


AJ is doing much better than I had anticipated with the Birds on the Bat, although like many others his ISO is very much lower than anticipated. (Then again, I was looking at his numbers in Chicago (South Side) and Texas...


Infielders


Matt Adams

Projected

.282/.329/.520/.849

6.5% BB rate, 22.9% K rate, .319 BABIP, .237 ISO


Actual - 413 PAs, .305/.324/.482/.807

2.9% BB rate, 19.9% K rate, .354 BABIP, .178 ISO


Man that walk rate is not good. Blech. That ISO is going down, too. Needs to get on another power tear.


Kolten Wong

Projected

.265/.324/.389/.713

7.6% BB rate, 14.2% K rate, .296 BABIP, .124 ISO


Actual - 299 PAs, .252/.292/.406/.698

4.3% BB rate, 15.7% K rate, .274 BABIP, .155 ISO


Wong is getting up to where I thought he might be. While he has not walked as much as I thought or gotten on base as much as I thought, he seems to have his power stroke down at the moment.

Jhonny Peralta

Projected

.281/.336/.437/.773

7.8% BB rate, 19.3% K rate, .327 BABIP, .156 ISO


Actual - 463 PAs, .260/.335/.447/.781

9.3% BB rate, 17.5% K rate, .286 BABIP, .187 ISO


Except for the low BABIP (leading to the low average), Peralta has been way better than I thought. Add 10 points of slugging while being 40 points lower BABIP than I thought leads to a +31 points of ISO. Just think what he'd be doing if the batted ball luck WAS going his way!?!? MVP type year if that were happening.


Matt Carpenter

Projected

.304/.386/.465/.851

11.1% BB rate, 14.6% K rate, .344 BABIP, .162 ISO


Actual - 533 PAs, .283/.378/.391/.769

12.4% BB rate, 15.8% K rate, .331 BABIP, .108 ISO


Carpenter's BABIP and AVG and OBP are all getting close. I still think he's looking to walk and drive up pitch counts too often rather than getting a good pitch to hit and really driving it.


Mark Ellis

Projected

.261/.315/.361/.676

6.5% BB rate, 15.5% K rate, .293 BABIP, .100 ISO


Actual - 191 PAs, .192/.267/.228/.495

7.3% BB rate, 17.3% K rate, .235 BABIP, .036 ISO


CUT HIM.


Daniel Descalso

Projected

.242/.300/.354/.654

7.5% BB rate, 17.5% K rate, .281 BABIP, .112 ISO


Actual - 119 PAs, .204/.271/.259/.530

6.7% BB rate, 21.8% K rate, .268 BABIP, .056 ISO


CUT HIM.


Pete Kozma

Projected

.221/.280/.309/.589

8.0% BB rate, 19.0% K rate, .264 BABIP, .088 ISO


Actual - 3 PA - not enough data


Greg Garcia

Projected

.250/.350/.363/.713

12.0% BB rate, 18.0% K rate, .299 BABIP, .113 ISO


Actual - 14 PA - not enough data (although a .429 OBP in his first 14 PAs as a major leaguer)


Outfielders


Matt Holliday

Projected

.298/.387/.498/.885

11.3% BB rate, 16.7% K rate, .330 BABIP, .200 ISO


Actual - 499 PAs, .264/.365/.414/.778

11.6% BB rate, 15.4% K rate, .296 BABIP, .150 ISO


I'm going to go ahead and say that Holliday has had a little bit of BABIP luck go against him this year at this point. This is especially the case pulling the ball, I believe.


Jon Jay

Projected

.289/.350/.393/.743

7.4% BB rate, 15.6% K rate, .329 BABIP, .105 ISO


Actual - 314 PAs, .298/.359/.397/.756

5.7% BB rate, 15.9% K rate, .351 BABIP, .099 ISO


Jon Jay is who we thought he is. Gotta figure by the end of the year that he'll walk a little more and get a few less hits and end up around where he's at.


Allen Craig

Projected

.309/.364/.483/.847

7.1% BB rate, 17.5% K rate, .350 BABIP, .174 ISO


Actual - 398 PAs, .237/.291/.346/.638

6.5% BB rate, 19.3% K rate, .281 BABIP, .109 ISO


Craig has since been traded.


Peter Bourjos

Projected

.257/.313/.403/.716

6.0% BB rate, 23.3% K rate, .317 BABIP, .146 ISO


Actual - 227 PAs, .222/.287/.355/.642

7.5% BB rate, 27.3% K rate, .297 BABIP, .133 ISO


Bourjos is trending in the correct direction, but needs to play better more consistently still. I thought my early season projections were low and he hasn't met those expectations of him.


Shane Robinson

Projected

.257/.335/.366/.701

10.5% BB rate, 12.5% K rate, .280 BABIP, .109 ISO


Actual - 55 PA, .140/.218/.200/.418

9.1% BB rate, 18.2% K rate, .175 BABIP, .060 ISO


Horrible so far off the bench this year. Nearly ready to cut him and let Grichuk or Piscotty take his place on the bench to provide some pop.


Randal Grichuk

.234/.280/.447/.727

4.0% BB rate, 20.0% K rate, .257 BABIP, .213 ISO


Actual - 48 PA - .136/.191/.273/.464

6.3% BB rate, 31.3% K rate, .179 BABIP, .136 ISO


Oscar Taveras

.292/.343/.482/.825

6.7% BB rate, 13.3% K rate, .311 BABIP, .190 ISO


Actual - 150 PA - .206/.247/.284/.530

5.3% BB rate, 15.3% K rate, .231 BABIP, .078 ISO


Taveras has not impressed, to date.


Starting Pitchers


Adam Wainwright

Projected

33 starts, 223 2/3 innings pitched, 6.778 IP/start

1.127 WHIP, 8.5 H/9, 0.6 HR/9

8.2 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 4.98 K:BB

3.30 ERA, 2.65 FIP


Actual - 24 starts, 169 IP, 7.042 IP/start

1.02 WHIP, 7.08 H/9, 0.32 HR/9

7.35 K/9, 2.13 BB/9, 3.45 K:BB

2.34 ERA, 2.77 FIP


About what you'd expect out of Waino!


Lance Lynn

Projected

33 starts, 209 innings pitched, 6.333 IP/start

1.316 WHIP, 8.5 H/9, 0.6 HR/9

8.9 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 2.68 K:BB

3.88 ERA, 3.12 FIP


Actual - 24 starts, 145 2/3 IP, 6.069 IP/start

1.30 WHIP, 8.34 H/9, 0.43 HR/9

8.22 K/9, 3.34 BB/9, 2.46 K:BB

2.97 ERA, 3.14 FIP


About what you'd expect out of Lynn (or at least what I expected...so many others seem shocked...for some reason)


Shelby Miller

Projected

32 starts, 191 innings pitched, 5.969 IP/start

1.288 WHIP, 8.3 H/9, 1.0 HR/9

9.3 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 2.86 K:BB

3.53 ERA, 3.57 FIP


Actual - 24 games, 23 starts, 133 2/3 IP, 5.768 IP/start

1.38 WHIP, 8.48 H/9, 1.14 HR/9

6.06 K/9, 3.91 BB/9, 1.55 K:BB

4.17 ERA, 4.78 FIP


Shelby is slowly but surely getting better. Interesting, but probably statistically random fact, when Pierzynski catches him, Shelby has a 5.67 K:BB and .209 batting average against...


Michael Wacha

Projected

30 starts, 180 innings pitched, 6.000 IP/start

1.033 WHIP, 7.0 H/9, 0.9 HR/9

8.6 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 3.74 K:BB

2.65 ERA, 3.14 FIP


Actual - 15 starts, 90 1/3 innings, 6.022 IP/start, 1.12 WHIP, 7.47 H/9, 0.50 HR/9

8.27 K/9, 2.59 BB/9, 3.19 K:BB, 2.79 ERA, 3.01 FIP


Injured - same as 1/2 pole


Carlos Martinez

Projected

14 starts, 40 relief appearances, 110 total innings, 5.000 IP/start

1.318 WHIP, 8.4 H/9, 0.5 HR/9

8.0 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 2.33 K:BB

3.44 ERA, 3.13 FIP


Actual - 7 starts, 31 relief appearances, 68 1/3 innings

1.49 WHIP, 9.35 H/9, 0.53 HR/9

8.43 K/9, 4.08 BB/9, 2.06 K:BB

4.74 ERA, 3.55 FIP


High BB leads to high ERA.


Joe Kelly

Projected

20 starts, 10 relief appearances, 130 total innings, 5.750 IP/start

1.385 WHIP, 9.2 H/9, 0.6 HR/9

6.1 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 1.87 K:BB

3.12 ERA, 3.69 FIP


Actual - 7 starts, 35 IP, 5.000 IP/start

1.46 WHIP, 10.54 H/9, 0.77 HR/9

6.43 K/9, 2.57 BB/9, 2.50 K:BB

4.37 ERA, 3.93 FIP


Since traded.


Jaime Garcia

23 starts, 141 innings, 6.130 IP/start

1.324 WHIP, 9.6 H/9, 0.8 HR/9

7.3 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 3.19 K:BB

3.74 ERA, 3.41 FIP


Actual - 7 starts, 43 2/3 innings, 6.238 per start, 1.05 WHIP, 8.04 H/9, 1.24 HR/9

8.04 K/9, 1.44 BB/9, 5.57 K:BB, 4.12 ERA, 3.78 FIP


Injured for life...at least rest of year.


John Lackey

Projected

11 starts, 72 innings, 6.545 IP/start

1.196 WHIP, 8.8 H/9, 1.1 HR/9

7.6 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 3.80 K:BB

3.56 ERA, 3.74 FIP


Actual - 3 starts, 19 IP, 6.333 IP/start

1.58 WHIP, 11.84 H/9, 1.89 HR/9

5.68 K/9, 2.37 BB/9, 2.40 K:BB

6.16 ERA, 5.39 FIP


Ugh.


Justin Masterson

Projected

11 starts, 63 innings, 5.727 IP/start

1.419 WHIP, 8.5 H/9, 0.6 HR/9

8.3 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, 1.97 K:BB

4.55 ERA, 3.62 FIP


Actual - 3 starts, 15 IP, 5.000 IP/start

1.53 WHIP, 10.20 H/9, 1.20 HR/9

5.40 K/9, 3.60 BB/9, 1.50 K:BB

6.00 ERA, 5.26 FIP


Ugh.


Bullpen


Trevor Rosenthal

Projected

70 games, 70 innings pitched

1.071 WHIP, 6.9 H/9, 0.5 HR/9

10.9 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 4.05 K:BB

2.19 ERA, 2.27 FIP


Actual - 56 games, 56 IP

1.39 WHIP, 7.71 H/9, 0.16 HR/9

11.57 K/9, 4.82 BB/9, 2.40 K:BB

3.21 ERA, 2.61 FIP


Rosie's walk rate is keeping him from an elite season.


Kevin Siegrist

Projected

70 games, 62 innings pitched

0.952 WHIP, 5.1 H/9, 0.4 HR/9

9.3 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 2.67 K:BB

2.76 ERA, 2.78 FIP


Actual - 31 games, 27 1/3 IP

1.28 WHIP, 8.89 H/9, 0.99 HR/9

10.54 K/9, 2.63 BB/9, 4.00 K:BB

4.94 ERA, 3.31 FIP


My bad - he's not out for the year. Yay!


Randy Choate
Projected

54 games, 30 innings pitched

1.100 WHIP, 6.3 H/9, 0.3 HR/9

8.4 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 2.33 K:BB

2.70 ERA, 2.82 FIP


Actual - 45 games, 26 2/3 IP

1.16 WHIP, 7.09 H/9, 0.34 HR/9

8.10 K/9, 3.38 BB/9, 2.40 K:BB

5.06 ERA, 3.39 FIP


Not as good a FIP as I'd thought because of the hits allowed being a bit higher. Decent year minus the ERA.


Seth Maness

Projected

70 games, 70 innings pitched

1.071 WHIP, 8.6 H/9, 0.6 HR/9

6.3 K/9, 1.0 BB/9, 6.13 K:BB (b/c rounding)

2.96 ERA, 2.93 FIP


Actual - 53 games, 61 1/3 IP

1.14 WHIP, 8.80 H/9, 0.73 HR/9

5.87 K/9, 1.47 BB/9, 4.00 K:BB

2.93 ERA, 3.47 FIP


Maness is having another good year. His K/9 is even worse than I thought it'd be but he's somehow getting it done again. Lots of ground balls.


Sam Freeman

Projection

1.300 WHIP, 7.8 H/9, 0.6 HR/9

7.5 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, 1.92 K:BB

3.60 ERA, 3.56 FIP


Actual - 29 games, 26 2/3 IP

1.46 WHIP, 9.11 H/9, 0.68 HR/9

8.8 K/9, 4.05 BB/9, 2.17 K:BB

2.70 ERA, 3.84 FIP


His ERA is pretty nice, but he's allowing way too many baserunners to keep me content at the moment.


Jason Motte

Projected

50 games, 50 innings pitched

1.020 WHIP, 6.8 H/9, 0.9 HR/9

9.0 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 3.85 K:BB

3.24 ERA, 3.14 FIP


Actual - 24 games, 21 IP

1.50 WHIP, 10.23 H/9, 2.86 HR/9

6.55 K/9, 3.27 BB/9, 2.00 K:BB

4.91 ERA, 6.90 FIP


Send him down until September.


Tyler Lyons (assuming bullpen)

Projected

1.000 WHIP, 7.2 H/9, 0.6 HR/9

9.3 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 5.17 K:BB

2.40 ERA, 2.46 FIP


Actual - 7 games, 4 starts, 28 innings

1.32 WHIP, 9.00 H/9, 1.29 HR/9

7.71 K/9, 2.89 BB/9, 2.67 K:BB

5.46 ERA, 4.34 FIP


Eric Fornataro

Projected

1.400 WHIP, 9.5 H/9, 0.5 HR/9

6.3 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 2.00 K:BB

3.38 ERA, 3.36 FIP


Actual - 8 games, 9 2/3 innings

1.24 WHIP, 10.24 H/9, 0.00 HR/9
2.79 K/9, 0.93 BB/9, 3.00 K:BB
4.66 ERA, 3.13 FIP

Keith Butler

Projected

1.225 WHIP, 7.2 H/9, 0.7 HR/9

9.0 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, 2.35 K:BB

3.38 ERA, 3.31 FIP


Actual - 2 innings, not enough data


Pat Neshek


Projected

1.275 WHIP, 8.3 H/9, 1.1 HR/9

7.2 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 2.29 K:BB

4.05 ERA, 4.13 FIP


Actual - 54 games, 50 1/3 IP

0.56 WHIP, 3.93 H/9, 0.36 HR/9

9.83 K/9, 1.07 BB/9, 9.17 K:BB

0.72 ERA, 1.94 FIP


Dang, KEEP IT UP!