FanPost

If Cardinals Are Willing To Trade Big, Wait For Something Bigger

A week out from the July 31st, non-waiver trade deadline, and most Cardinals fans are confused. Confused why they are collectively hitting .251 as a team. Confused by a plethora of pitching injuries that have occurred. Confused why Oscar Taveras and Allen Craig are platooning, instead of one of them starting to get back on track. But most of all, why the Cardinals as of July 24th, have scored a weak 372 runs, which amounts to 29th/30th in all of MLB.

What they aren't confused about, however, is how dominant their starting pitching has been:

  • 3rd in Starting Pitching ERA
  • 1st in Complete Games
  • 6th in Base on Balls Allowed
  • 5th in Batting Average Against
  • 1st in Home Runs Allowed

Those are out of all MLB teams, which isn't bad considering Cardinals have been without Jaime Garcia, Joe Kelly, and Michael Wacha most of the year. But still the Cardinals' name has appeared in every rumor connected to Tampa Bay SP, David Price. Yes, St. Louis would greatly benefit from adding an ace to their rotation, and if Wacha comes back for the postseason, a Wainwright-Price-Wacha punch would be the hardest to get through. But let us remember, anything great comes at a price, and David's price certainly seems to be rising since their current hot-streak. If Cardinals wanted Price, they didn't help their cause while the Rays shut-out the redbirds in the most recent two-game set.

We've all heard those fans who comically throw their trade ideas out there. "Just ship-em Holliday and Ellis for Price" (Yes, this is a trade proposal from my uncle), But what would it really take to get Price? GM John Mozeliak admits himself that this is a seller's market, and would take a great amount to pry Price away from Tampa. Most people have come to a consensus that a deal would look like this:

To Cardinals: SP David Price

To Rays: OF Oscar Taveras, P Carlos Martinez, 2B Kolten Wong and Competitive-Balance Round A draft pick

That is a lot, but to get one of the top pitchers in the AL, you have to surrender some of the top prospects in your system. So, would Mo & Co. make that deal?

Prediction: Cardinals don't trade for Price, and they shouldn't.

Yes Cardinals would have a top rotation, probably propelling them to a NL Central pennant and beyond. And if Wacha, Yadi come back and the hitting gets back on track, another World Series title would be eminent. But there are a lot of if's and concerns with the scenario.

  1. David Price would have to sign an extension, and though St. Louis is a terrific place to play, a player that close to the FA market, might want to test it.
  2. David Price would make around 20 Million in 2015, via Arbitration Process.
  3. You would give up Oscar Taveras, an offensive threat under control for the next 5-7 years.

And this is even if Rays accept that, which they might ask for more depending on offers from other teams.

Offense is a gigantic commodity in the game, just look at what the Chicago Cubs have been stockpiling. They understand that if you have solid offensive, you can trade it for anything else you need. But if Cardinals are willing to give up Taveras, (and presumably anyone else would be on the table too), then I would look to wait. Wait for what you might ask?

Giancarlo Stanton.

Marlins have repeatedly denied Stanton's availability. And sure, there is a 99.9% he stays put for the remainder of this season. But between Blue Jays blockbuster and Owner Jeffrey Loria's management skills, I wouldn't be too sure of him wanting to stick around.

If he hit the open market today, Stanton could probably command about 25 Million in annual value, if not even more. And we all know extensions cost more to the team than an open market signing. The Marlins would have to put up a huge offer for him to even consider staying in Miami. Do they have a chance to keep him long term? Sure. Is it likely? Not many think so.

This offseason, or next season, or at anytime in the next couple of years, Miami will come to a point where they field offers on Stanton, and this is where Mozeliak and the prospect train comes rolling in. If Cardinals offer a deal with Taveras, Miller, Martinez, Piscotty, Grichuk, Wong, Craig (ect.) all on the table, the Marlins would be very tempted to engage. And to be honest, for a pure, MLB-proven slugger, who turns just 25 this offseason, it might be worth the price. Holliday is getting older (AKA Declining), Craig has always had a power outage, and Matt Adams is still too young to depend on being an everyday #3-hole hitter in the lineup. With Stanton's power (which Cardinals lack) and middle of the order presence (which Cardinals haven't had since Pujols' departure), Giancarlo Stanton could be the big fish Cardinal Nation has been waiting to catch.

To reiterate, Tampa Bay hasn't made a decision to trade Price, Cardinals haven't committed to include Taveras in any trade, and Marlins sure a heck haven't talked about trading Stanton, but I do know this: If there was ever a player to go all in on, it's Stanton. And if holding out this season and settling for a middle-lower of the rotation option to achieve such a deal is the way, then Mozeliak right now should stand pat, and wait for something bigger to arise.