FanPost

The Last 65 Games

The St. Louis Cardinals have 65 games left to go in the season. Obviously, with the 4-team race at the top of the NL Central occurring, these 65 games mean a lot! How much do you ask?


The 2006 Cardinals are quite an outlier, if it tells you anything. They finished the year on a 28-37 streak that took them from 14 games over .500 to just 5 games over .500 - yet they still made the playoffs and won the World Series. That 28-37 finish is tied for the 28th worst 65 game stretch to end a season in St. Louis Cardinals' history. It is the only time the St. Louis Cardinals (from 1885 to 2013) finished that poorly and even made the playoffs, much less won it all.


Since 1885, the Cards have made the playoffs 29 other times. In 26 of those 29 instances, the Cardinals finished the last 65 games at 37-28 or better. That's 9 games over .500 in that span, as opposed to the one time finishing 9 under (in the same span) that I listed above. In 23 of those 29 instances, the team finished at least 11 games over .500 (38-27 or better).


In 20 of those 29 instances, the Cardinals had at least 40 wins in their 65 remaining games - 15 games over .500 or better.


Their top 7 finishes to seasons have been (in reverse order):

45-20 (1885, 1967)

45-19* (1921) - I guess there were ties back then? I can't find any other reason there's a missing game on a few of these

46-19 (1931, 1943)

47-18 (1930)

49-15* (1942)


In those 7 seasons, they missed the playoffs once (1921), won the AA Pennant once (1885), won the NL Pennant twice (1930, 1943), and won the World Series three times (1931, 1942, 1967). When I analyzed the strength of schedule (Facebook link to Flyover Country Baseball) for the Cardinals back on July 15th, I stated that I believe the Cardinals could win 37 or 38 games the rest of the season (out of the last 66.) They won last night, so let's make it 36 or 37 games in their last 65. If they win 37 games, they'll go 37-28. As I mentioned above, 26 of the Cardinals' post-season attempts have come through winning 37 of their last 65 games or better. In fact, their 1982 World Series came after winning 37 of their final 65 regular season games.


Let's go Cardinals! Finish strong!