FanPost

Trade Neshek/Choate Now?

Last night, the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim made a trade. The Padres traded closing pitcher Huston Street and a minor league pitcher named Trevor Gott. They received four minor leaguers as a part of the deal. Let's break it down a bit more.


Street is a top of the line reliever in the majors who will not need to be the closer for the Angels. He could be the piece that throws their bullpen over the top for the stretch run and the playoffs. Only time will tell. Trevor Gott is in just his second season in the minors and is a reliever by trade. He has not started a professional game. He is striking out just over 9 per 9 innings in 75+ innings in his minor league career.


The Angels sent the following pieces to the Padres:
1) R.J. Alvarez, a 23-year old AA relief pitcher (4th best Angels' prospect entering the season) with a 13.5 K/9 over his last 103 innings in the minors.
2) Jose Rondon, a 20-year old High A shortstop with a .360ish OBP and over .400 SLG in his last 650 PAs.
3) Taylor Lindsey, a 22-year old AAA 2B prospect (best Angels' prospect entering the season) who has a league average batting line while being 4.5 years below average for league!

4) Elliot Morris, a 22-year old High A starting pitcher with an 8.9 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 in 85+ innings between A and High A this season.


If two high level middle infield prospects and two decent pitching prospects are the going rate for a top end reliever, the St. Louis Cardinals should really think about trading Randy Choate and Pat Neshek right now. What teams, besides LAA, really do not care enough about their prospects being in win-now mode? That is the first thing that John Mozeliak would have to ascertain.


By my analysis, I look at these teams:

Now, Huston Street has been better for longer than Neshek and Choate is a LOOGY by trade, so it is less likely he'd bring in quite the haul. Therefore, I believe trading those two together, rather than throwing in a minor league piece (as SD did), would bring in a better return. That return likely would not bring you four players, but I will instead look at one position player prospect and one pitching prospect from each of those 5 teams that I would target in a deal for Choate and Neshek.

Keep in mind, I don't know that any of these teams will give up what I'm asking, but I'm looking for a similar return to what the Padres got for Huston Street.

Kansas City Royals

In looking at the Kansas City Royals' system, I would immediately ask for either Raul Mondesi or Hunter Dozier in this deal. Mondesi has not been great with the bat this year, but is a top-end SS prospect. With Kansas City in the pennant run this year - possibly for the last time in a while with James Shields' contract coming to an end in 3 months - so they could be ripe for an overpay. Dozier, meanwhile, was their 1st round pick in the 2013 draft and is a third baseman who has already reached AA with a decent bat.

I would also ask for one of Glenn Sparkman, Matthew Murray, or Luis Santos. Sparkman is a 22-year old starter/reliever in High A with a 0.942 WHIP and 4.67 K:BB in 75+ innings in 21 games (10 starts). Murray is a 24-year old starter in High A and AA this year. He's got a 1.185 WHIP and 2.50 K:BB in 52+ innings over 27 games.(2 starts). Santos is a 23-year old starter in High A currently. He's got a 1.057 WHIP and 3.80 K:BB in 81+ innings over 16 games (13 starts).

Toronto Blue Jays

Unlike Kansas City, Toronto doesn't seem to have a top-end hitting prospect, so I looked at pitchers first for them. I would ask for 21-year old lefty starter Daniel Norris - a former 2nd round pick with a 10.1 K/9 and 2.71 K:BB and improving WHIP in over 200 minor league innings. He's currently at AA. 23-year old AA righty starter Matt Boyd or High A, 24-year old righty starter Taylor Cole could be targets as well.

As for hitters I would target? I ask for switch-hitting center fielder, 21-year old Dalton Pompey. He's in AA and has a career .265/.361/.404/.765 line so far in the minors with 102 steals and 17 caught in about 1,300 PAs. He also has 92 XBH in that time and has scored nearly 200 runs. The other player I'd think about is Low A shortstop, righty Franklin Barreto - an 18-year old. In 2 seasons in rookie ball and High A (one each), he has a .295/.368/.477/.844 line with 47 XBH and 21 SB in just 406 PA.

Detroit Tigers

Devon Travis is a second base prospect who is 23 years old and playing at AA. He has a career minor league line of .326/.390/.487/.877 with 76 XBH and 33 SB in 941 PAs. He was rated in Baseball America's pre-season top 100. If they don't bite, I'd inquire on 18-year old A ball SS Willy Adames.

For the pitcher from the Tigers' organization, I'd ask about 3 names. 1) Buck Farmer is a 23-year old A ball starter (a little older for his level) with a career 1.148 WHIP and 4.71 K:BB (10.1 K/9 and getting better), 2) Julio Felix is a 22-yea rold A ball reliever with a season WHIP of 0.869 and over 9 K/9 for the first time, or 3) Jonathan Maciel is a 21-year old A ball starter/reliever with a career 1.254 WHIP and 3.13 K:BB (under 2 BB/9 this year).

Oakland Athletics

Oakland already has shown the proclivity to trade top prospects this year. That's good for the Cardinals. What's bad is that their top prospects are already gone. I ask for one of Renato Nunez, Herschel Powell, or Chad Pinder. Nunez is a 20-year old 3B prospect at High A who has a .284/.346/.551/.897 line this year. He's killing it at nearly 3 years younger than his competition. The other two are playing at just under a year younger than their competition. Powell is a 21-year old CF in High A at the moment. He's got a .344/.453/.440/.894 (Mike O'Neill-esque) line between A and High A this year - but can play CF unlike O'Neill. Pinder is a middle infielder at High A this year at 22-years old. He's got a .296/.340/.526/.866 line. Granted, both of the last two are playing in a hitter's league, I believe. But they're hitting.

Truthfully, I probably ask for two of those 3 above instead of a pitcher. I don't trust when Billy Beane gives up on a pitcher...I will believe he's hurt until his career is over.

Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia is not in the race this year, but I don't think that would preclude them from making a stupid move. I really don't. Jesse Biddle is a lefty starter prospect who is struggling in his second go-around in AA this year. He could possibly be had on the cheap despite them not being in the pennant race. Maikel Franco is a 3B prospect at AAA this year who is also struggling mightily. If we take on those two struggling prospects, could we get a third prospect in SS JP Crawford out of them? I think it's a possibility. He could be the steal of that deal.

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In any case, just like the Samardzija/Hammel deal shifted the conversation for the return on starting pitchers, the Huston Street deal may have done the same for relievers. If so, I become a seller on Choate and Neshek - especially with Siegrist returning, Motte's arm strength improving, Kelly's return, and hopefully Wacha's return soon.