FanPost

The 2014 Cardinals at the 1/2 Pole v. stlfan's Projections

Catchers


Yadier Molina

Projected

.313/.358/.483/.841

6.4% BB rate, 9.7% K rate, .322 BABIP, .170 ISO

Actual - 298 PAs, .281/.333/.407/.741

6.7% BB rate, 11.7% K rate, .297 BABIP, .126 ISO

Yadi's walk and K rates are getting closer to where I predicted, but his BABIP has dropped considerably since the 1/4 pole. His power is now MUCH lower than I thought it would be as well.

Tony Cruz

Projected

.231/.265/.340/.605

3.9% BB rate, 18.1% K rate, .271 BABIP, .109 ISO

Actual - 52 PAs, .244/.333/.289/.622

11.5% BB rate, 15.4% K rate, .297 BABIP, .044 ISO

Cruz's walk rate is astonishing to me this year - his ratio with BB/K is amazing. He's BABIPing like crazy as well - over .025 higher than I thought. Unfortunately, his slugging and ISO are quite a bit lower than I expected.

Infielders


Matt Adams

Projected

.282/.329/.520/.849

6.5% BB rate, 22.9% K rate, .319 BABIP, .237 ISO

Actual - 260 PAs, .327/.338/.528/.867

2.7% BB rate, 18.5% K rate, .367 BABIP, .202 ISO

Adams is finally coming into his own after taking that time off with an injury. He's bombing the ball like we expected and has his SLG about where I thought. The only thing I'm worried about badly is that BB rate being 1/3 of what I though (basically).

Kolten Wong

Projected

.265/.324/.389/.713

7.6% BB rate, 14.2% K rate, .296 BABIP, .124 ISO

Actual - 171 PAs - .228/.282/.304/.586

5.8% BB rate, 10.5% K rate, .252 BABIP, .076 ISO

Wong is just not consistently hitting major league pitching as well as I thought he might this season. We'll see what happens when he comes back from injury.

Jhonny Peralta

Projected

.281/.336/.437/.773

7.8% BB rate, 19.3% K rate, .327 BABIP, .156 ISO

Actual - 314 PAs, .244/.322/.441/.763

9.6%BB rate, 18.5% K rate, .269 BABIP, .197 ISO

Peralta's batted ball luck has turned a little - he's slugging about what I thought he would, without getting on base as often. That raises his ISO incredible. The biggest surprise is that he's the second best overall SS by WAR in baseball thanks to great defense as well!

Matt Carpenter

Projected

.304/.386/.465/.851

11.1% BB rate, 14.6% K rate, .344 BABIP, .162 ISO

Actual - 363 PAs, .275/.370/.369/.739

11.8% BB rate, 16.0% K rate, .325 BABIP, .094 ISO

Carpenter is starting to get back to where I thought he'd be in the OBP department, and his slugging is slowly improving. It will take quite a torrid streak in order to get up to my projected stats, much less last years, but he's working on it - grinding out PA after PA as he does.

Mark Ellis

Projected

.261/.315/.361/.676

6.5% BB rate, 15.5% K rate, .293 BABIP, .100 ISO

Actual - 147 PAs, .198/.285/.238/.523

8.8% BB rate, 17.0% K rate, .243 BABIP, .040 ISO

Before the season started, I had one of the lowest projections in the world for Mark Ellis and after seeing that stat line he currently has I hate to say that he's actually improved greatly since the 1/4 pole - but he's still well below where I thought he could be - especially if platooned correctly.

Daniel Descalso

Projected

.242/.300/.354/.654

7.5% BB rate, 17.5% K rate, .281 BABIP, .112 ISO

Actual - 75 PAs, 188/.243/.246/.490

5.3% BB rate, 24.0% K rate, .255 BABIP, .058 ISO

And somehow Descalso is still on the roster...as I said back in May, before he got this bad. Kozma got sent down, though...Garcia got sent down, though. *sigh*


Pete Kozma

Projected

.221/.280/.309/.589

8.0% BB rate, 19.0% K rate, .264 BABIP, .088 ISO


Actual - 3 PA - not enough data


Greg Garcia

Projected

.250/.350/.363/.713

12.0% BB rate, 18.0% K rate, .299 BABIP, .113 ISO


Actual - 14 PA - not enough data (although a .429 OBP in his first 14 PAs as a major leaguer)

Outfielders


Matt Holliday

Projected

.298/.387/.498/.885

11.3% BB rate, 16.7% K rate, .330 BABIP, .200 ISO

Actual - 346 PAs, .270/.376/.392/.768

12.4% BB rate, 14.2% K rate, .307 BABIP, .123 ISO

Like most everyone else, his ISO is WAY down, no power out of the big LF so far this year. - left the same, his biggest problem.

Jon Jay

Projected

.289/.350/.393/.743

7.4% BB rate, 15.6% K rate, .329 BABIP, .105 ISO

Actual - 205 PAs, .299/.360/.386/.745

6.3% BB rate, 15.6% K rate, .355 BABIP, .087 ISO

Since the 1/4 pole, Jay's AVG and OBP have gotten better, but his ISO has dropped a bit. He's still obviously the best threat in CF right now, especially playing as good a CF as he has on the year.

Allen Craig

Projected

.309/.364/.483/.847

7.1% BB rate, 17.5% K rate, .350 BABIP, .174 ISO


Actual - 336 PAs, .256/.304/.372/.675

5.7% BB rate, 18.2% K rate, .300 BABIP, .115 ISO

Craig's BABIP is way below his career average, but really...he's not quite up to where I thought Bourjos would be at this point in the season, much less where Craig would be.

Peter Bourjos

Projected

.257/.313/.403/.716

6.0% BB rate, 23.3% K rate, .317 BABIP, .146 ISO

Actual - 174 PAs, .210/.277/.318/.596

7.5% BB rate, 28.2% K rate, .327 BABIP, .145 ISO

Backhand compliment of the day: I'm proud that Bourjos is now striking out less than 3 out of every 10 plate appearances on the year. Now he just has to get down below 1/4 of the plate appearances and have some of those extra balls in play to drop in for more hits.

Shane Robinson

Projected

.257/.335/.366/.701

10.5% BB rate, 12.5% K rate, .280 BABIP, .109 ISO

Actual - 38 PA - .143/.211/.171/.382

7.9% BB rate, 21.1% K rate, .185 BABIP, .029 ISO

Joey Butler

Projected

.279/.380/.395/.775

12.0% BB rate, 26.0% K rate, .379 BABIP, .116 ISO


Actual - 6 PA - not enough data

Randal Grichuk

.234/.280/.447/.727

4.0% BB rate, 20.0% K rate, .257 BABIP, .213 ISO

Actual - 48 PA - .136/.191/.273/.464

6.3% BB rate, 31.3% K rate, .179 BABIP, .136 ISO

Oscar Taveras

.292/.343/.482/.825

6.7% BB rate, 13.3% K rate, .311 BABIP, .190 ISO

Actual - 40 PA - .189/.225/.297/.522

5.0% BB rate, 17.5% K rate, .200 BABIP, .108 ISO

Starting Pitchers


Adam Wainwright

Projected

33 starts, 223 2/3 innings pitched, 6.778 IP/start

1.127 WHIP, 8.5 H/9, 0.6 HR/9

8.2 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 4.98 K:BB

3.30 ERA, 2.65 FIP

Actual - 16 starts, 116 1/3 innings, 7.271 IP per start, 0.90 WHIP, 6.42 H/9, 0.31 HR/9

8.12 K/9, 1.70 BB/9, 4.77 K:BB, 2.01 ERA, 2.36 FIP

Each of Wainwright's stats has improved since the 1/4 pole - when he was already pitching amazingly. This year is one for the ages thus far. No jinx, GOBs - Cy Young time for Waino!

Lance Lynn

Projected

33 starts, 209 innings pitched, 6.333 IP/start

1.316 WHIP, 8.5 H/9, 0.6 HR/9

8.9 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 2.68 K:BB

3.88 ERA, 3.12 FIP

Actual - 16 starts, 99 1/3 innings, 6.208 per start, 1.24 WHIP, 7.97 H/9, 0.54 HR/9

8.06 K/9, 3.17 BB/9, 2.54 K:BB, 2.90 ERA, 3.24 FIP

Lance has lowered his WHIP, H/9, BB/9, HR/9, ERA, and FIP since I last checked in, but has struck less out per 9, lowering his K:BB to just below where I thought it would end up on the year.

Shelby Miller

Projected

32 starts, 191 innings pitched, 5.969 IP/start

1.288 WHIP, 8.3 H/9, 1.0 HR/9

9.3 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 2.86 K:BB

3.53 ERA, 3.57 FIP

Actual - 16 starts, 93 2/3 innings, 5.854 per start, 1.40 WHIP, 8.17 H/9, 1.06 HR/9

6.34 K/9, 4.42 BB/9, 1.43 K:BB, 3.75 ERA, 4.75 FIP

Miller has slowly been getting better and better this year. His K:BB is on the rise, his HR/9 and WHIP are dropping. Unfortunately, his ERA is catching up to his lowering FIP.

Michael Wacha

Projected

30 starts, 180 innings pitched, 6.000 IP/start

1.033 WHIP, 7.0 H/9, 0.9 HR/9

8.6 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 3.74 K:BB

2.65 ERA, 3.14 FIP

Actual - 15 starts, 90 1/3 innings, 6.022 IP/start, 1.12 WHIP, 7.47 H/9, 0.50 HR/9

8.27 K/9, 2.59 BB/9, 3.19 K:BB, 2.79 ERA, 3.01 FIP

Wacha's FIP is getting close to what I projected, while his ERA is slightly higher. His K/9 really dropped in his last 7 starts, but nobody expected it to be 10.5 for the year!

Carlos Martinez

Projected

14 starts, 40 relief appearances, 110 total innings, 5.000 IP/start

1.318 WHIP, 8.4 H/9, 0.5 HR/9

8.0 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 2.33 K:BB

3.44 ERA, 3.13 FIP

Actual - 3 starts, 30 relief appearances, 48 innings, 1.33 WHIP, 7.88 H/9, 0.38 HR/9

7.50 K/9, 4.13 BB/9, 1.82 K:BB, 4.13 ERA, 3.47 FIP

Martinez still has not found the strike zone as often as I believe he should be able to and that is keeping his BB rate quite inflated along with his ERA and FIP.

Joe Kelly

Projected

20 starts, 10 relief appearances, 130 total innings, 5.750 IP/start

1.385 WHIP, 9.2 H/9, 0.6 HR/9

6.1 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 1.87 K:BB

3.12 ERA, 3.69 FIP


Actual - 3 starts, 15 1/3 innings, 5.111 per start, 1.24 WHIP, 8.80 H/9, 0.00 HR/9

5.28 K/9, 2.35 BB/9, 2.25 K:BB, 0.59 ERA, 2.91 FIP

While Joe Kelly was not going deep into games by any stretch of the imagination, he was besting my projections by a fair bit - while those projections were even lower than they would have been if I had simply listed him as a starter - which is all he'd done before his injury this year. I was quite impressed and am sad to hear he has had a setback (or at least minimal progression) in his recovery. It'd be nice to get him back if he's going to continue this trend!

Jaime Garcia

23 starts, 141 innings, 6.130 IP/start

1.324 WHIP, 9.6 H/9, 0.8 HR/9

7.3 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 3.19 K:BB

3.74 ERA, 3.41 FIP

Actual - 7 starts, 43 2/3 innings, 6.238 per start, 1.05 WHIP, 8.04 H/9, 1.24 HR/9

8.04 K/9, 1.44 BB/9, 5.57 K:BB, 4.12 ERA, 3.78 FIP

Jaime has been quite good coming back from injury. His WHIP and K:BB are phenomenal - his HR/9 are quite unlucky. That inflates his FIP quite greatly and his ERA even more. Those'll come down if he keeps pitching this well.

Bullpen

Trevor Rosenthal

Projected

70 games, 70 innings pitched

1.071 WHIP, 6.9 H/9, 0.5 HR/9

10.9 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 4.05 K:BB

2.19 ERA, 2.27 FIP

Actual - 37 games, 38 1/3 innings, 1.28 WHIP, 6.10 H/9, 0.23 HR/9

11.50 K/9, 5.40 BB/9, 2.13 K:BB, 3.05 ERA, 2.84 FIP

Rosenthal's walk rate creeped down slightly, but it's still way too high for him to be an elite closer like I thought.

Kevin Siegrist

Projected

70 games, 62 innings pitched

0.952 WHIP, 5.1 H/9, 0.4 HR/9

9.3 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 2.67 K:BB

2.76 ERA, 2.78 FIP

Actual - 23 games, 20 innings, 1.25 WHIP, 7.65 H/9, 0.45 HR/9

12.15 K/9, 3.60 BB/9, 3.38 K:BB, 3.60 ERA, 2.40 FIP

Siegrist is now out for the year injured - he was pitching incredibly again. :(

Randy Choate
Projected

54 games, 30 innings pitched

1.100 WHIP, 6.3 H/9, 0.3 HR/9

8.4 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 2.33 K:BB

2.70 ERA, 2.82 FIP

Actual - 31 games, 21 1/3 innings, 1.17 WHIP, 7.59 H/9, 0.42 HR/9

8.44 K/9, 2.95 BB/9, 2.86 K:BB

5.48 ERA, 3.10 FIP

After they tried stretching him out to full innings over the first 1/4 of the season, the 2nd quarter of the season saw him throw less innings and lower his WHIP, H/9, HR/9, ERA, and FIP.


Seth Maness

Projected

70 games, 70 innings pitched

1.071 WHIP, 8.6 H/9, 0.6 HR/9

6.3 K/9, 1.0 BB/9, 6.13 K:BB (b/c rounding)

2.96 ERA, 2.93 FIP

Actual - 31 games, 36 1/3 innings, 1.38 WHIP, 10.90 H/9, 0.50 HR/9

5.70 K/9, 1.49 BB/9, 3.83 K:BB

2.72 ERA, 3.13 FIP

Maness hasn't been great, but he hasn't been bad either. His WHIP is far worse than I thought but his FIP is creeping close to where I thought and his ERA is staying down.

Sam Freeman

Projection

1.300 WHIP, 7.8 H/9, 0.6 HR/9

7.5 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, 1.92 K:BB

3.60 ERA, 3.56 FIP

Actual - 15 games, 15 1/3 innings, 0.85 WHIP, 4.70 H/9, 0.00 HR/9

8.22 K/9, 2.93 BB/9, 2.80 K:BB, 1.76 ERA, 2.45 FIP

Freeman has been quite effective this year as a lefty in the pen. I'm quite impressed. Keep it up, Sam!


Jason Motte

Projected

50 games, 50 innings pitched

1.020 WHIP, 6.8 H/9, 0.9 HR/9

9.0 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 3.85 K:BB

3.24 ERA, 3.14 FIP


Actual - 13 games, 10 1/3 innings, 1.65 WHIP, 13.06 H/9, 2.61 HR/9

8.71 K/9, 1.74 BB/9, 5.00 K:BB, 4.35 ERA, 5.52 FIP

We all hope that his peripherals (which are good) are not the lucky stats and that his ridiculously high H/9 and HR/9 are his 'unlucky' stats.

Tyler Lyons (assuming bullpen)

Projected

1.000 WHIP, 7.2 H/9, 0.6 HR/9

9.3 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 5.17 K:BB

2.40 ERA, 2.46 FIP


Actual - 6 games, 4 starts, 25 innings, 1.28 WHIP, 9.00 H/9, 1.44 HR/9

8.28 K/9, 2.52 BB/9, 3.29 K:BB

6.12 ERA, 4.30 FIP

Lyons really got a bad rap this year. His K:BB is great, his WHIP is good, but his H/9 and HR/9 are not. Not close. And now - he's hurt, too.


Eric Fornataro

Projected

1.400 WHIP, 9.5 H/9, 0.5 HR/9

6.3 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 2.00 K:BB

3.38 ERA, 3.36 FIP


Actual - 7 2/3 innings, 1.17 WHIP, 9.39 H/9, 0.00 HR/9

2.35 K/9, 1.17 BB/9, 2.00 K:BB

4.70 ERA, 3.36 FIP

I almost nailed this actually. His WHIP was better than I thought because his BB/9 was lower than I thought - but with that, his K/9 was way down, so his FIP was the same. His ERA was quite an outlier - some poor timing on combination of h


Keith Butler

Projected

1.225 WHIP, 7.2 H/9, 0.7 HR/9

9.0 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, 2.35 K:BB

3.38 ERA, 3.31 FIP


Actual - 2 innings, not enough data


Pat Neshek

Projected

1.275 WHIP, 8.3 H/9, 1.1 HR/9

7.2 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 2.29 K:BB

4.05 ERA, 4.13 FIP


Actual - 37 games, 32 2/3 innings, 0.55 WHIP, 3.86 H/9, 0.28 HR/9

8.82 K/9, 1.10 BB/9, 8.00 K:BB, 0.83 ERA, 2.09 FIP

Neshek is doing his best Kevin Siegrist circa 2013 impression by being absolutely nails out on the mound. Keep it up, Pat! Prove me wrong! (kept that the same!)

Marco Gonzales

Projected

10 starts, 60 innings, 6.000 IP/start

1.285 WHIP, 8.9 H/9, 0.4 HR/9

8.1 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 3.00 K:BB

2.42 ERA, 2.92 FIP

1 start - 5 innings - not enough data

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