Catchers
Projected
.313/.358/.483/.841
6.4% BB rate, 9.7% K rate, .322 BABIP, .170 ISO
Actual - 298 PAs, .281/.333/.407/.741
6.7% BB rate, 11.7% K rate, .297 BABIP, .126 ISO
Yadi's walk and K rates are getting closer to where I predicted, but his BABIP has dropped considerably since the 1/4 pole. His power is now MUCH lower than I thought it would be as well.
Projected
.231/.265/.340/.605
3.9% BB rate, 18.1% K rate, .271 BABIP, .109 ISO
Actual - 52 PAs, .244/.333/.289/.622
11.5% BB rate, 15.4% K rate, .297 BABIP, .044 ISO
Cruz's walk rate is astonishing to me this year - his ratio with BB/K is amazing. He's BABIPing like crazy as well - over .025 higher than I thought. Unfortunately, his slugging and ISO are quite a bit lower than I expected.
Infielders
Projected
.282/.329/.520/.849
6.5% BB rate, 22.9% K rate, .319 BABIP, .237 ISO
Actual - 260 PAs, .327/.338/.528/.867
2.7% BB rate, 18.5% K rate, .367 BABIP, .202 ISO
Adams is finally coming into his own after taking that time off with an injury. He's bombing the ball like we expected and has his SLG about where I thought. The only thing I'm worried about badly is that BB rate being 1/3 of what I though (basically).
Projected
.265/.324/.389/.713
7.6% BB rate, 14.2% K rate, .296 BABIP, .124 ISO
Actual - 171 PAs - .228/.282/.304/.586
5.8% BB rate, 10.5% K rate, .252 BABIP, .076 ISO
Wong is just not consistently hitting major league pitching as well as I thought he might this season. We'll see what happens when he comes back from injury.
Projected
.281/.336/.437/.773
7.8% BB rate, 19.3% K rate, .327 BABIP, .156 ISO
Actual - 314 PAs, .244/.322/.441/.763
9.6%BB rate, 18.5% K rate, .269 BABIP, .197 ISO
Peralta's batted ball luck has turned a little - he's slugging about what I thought he would, without getting on base as often. That raises his ISO incredible. The biggest surprise is that he's the second best overall SS by WAR in baseball thanks to great defense as well!
Projected
.304/.386/.465/.851
11.1% BB rate, 14.6% K rate, .344 BABIP, .162 ISO
Actual - 363 PAs, .275/.370/.369/.739
11.8% BB rate, 16.0% K rate, .325 BABIP, .094 ISO
Carpenter is starting to get back to where I thought he'd be in the OBP department, and his slugging is slowly improving. It will take quite a torrid streak in order to get up to my projected stats, much less last years, but he's working on it - grinding out PA after PA as he does.
Projected
.261/.315/.361/.676
6.5% BB rate, 15.5% K rate, .293 BABIP, .100 ISO
Actual - 147 PAs, .198/.285/.238/.523
8.8% BB rate, 17.0% K rate, .243 BABIP, .040 ISO
Before the season started, I had one of the lowest projections in the world for Mark Ellis and after seeing that stat line he currently has I hate to say that he's actually improved greatly since the 1/4 pole - but he's still well below where I thought he could be - especially if platooned correctly.
Projected
.242/.300/.354/.654
7.5% BB rate, 17.5% K rate, .281 BABIP, .112 ISO
Actual - 75 PAs, 188/.243/.246/.490
5.3% BB rate, 24.0% K rate, .255 BABIP, .058 ISO
And somehow Descalso is still on the roster...as I said back in May, before he got this bad. Kozma got sent down, though...Garcia got sent down, though. *sigh*
Projected
.221/.280/.309/.589
8.0% BB rate, 19.0% K rate, .264 BABIP, .088 ISO
Actual - 3 PA - not enough data
Projected
.250/.350/.363/.713
12.0% BB rate, 18.0% K rate, .299 BABIP, .113 ISO
Actual - 14 PA - not enough data (although a .429 OBP in his first 14 PAs as a major leaguer)
Outfielders
Matt Holliday
Projected
.298/.387/.498/.885
11.3% BB rate, 16.7% K rate, .330 BABIP, .200 ISO
Actual - 346 PAs, .270/.376/.392/.768
12.4% BB rate, 14.2% K rate, .307 BABIP, .123 ISO
Like most everyone else, his ISO is WAY down, no power out of the big LF so far this year. - left the same, his biggest problem.
Jon Jay
Projected
.289/.350/.393/.743
7.4% BB rate, 15.6% K rate, .329 BABIP, .105 ISO
Actual - 205 PAs, .299/.360/.386/.745
6.3% BB rate, 15.6% K rate, .355 BABIP, .087 ISO
Since the 1/4 pole, Jay's AVG and OBP have gotten better, but his ISO has dropped a bit. He's still obviously the best threat in CF right now, especially playing as good a CF as he has on the year.
Allen Craig
Projected
.309/.364/.483/.847
7.1% BB rate, 17.5% K rate, .350 BABIP, .174 ISO
Actual - 336 PAs, .256/.304/.372/.675
5.7% BB rate, 18.2% K rate, .300 BABIP, .115 ISO
Craig's BABIP is way below his career average, but really...he's not quite up to where I thought Bourjos would be at this point in the season, much less where Craig would be.
Peter Bourjos
Projected
.257/.313/.403/.716
6.0% BB rate, 23.3% K rate, .317 BABIP, .146 ISO
Actual - 174 PAs, .210/.277/.318/.596
7.5% BB rate, 28.2% K rate, .327 BABIP, .145 ISO
Backhand compliment of the day: I'm proud that Bourjos is now striking out less than 3 out of every 10 plate appearances on the year. Now he just has to get down below 1/4 of the plate appearances and have some of those extra balls in play to drop in for more hits.
Shane Robinson
Projected
.257/.335/.366/.701
10.5% BB rate, 12.5% K rate, .280 BABIP, .109 ISO
Actual - 38 PA - .143/.211/.171/.382
7.9% BB rate, 21.1% K rate, .185 BABIP, .029 ISO
Projected
.279/.380/.395/.775
12.0% BB rate, 26.0% K rate, .379 BABIP, .116 ISO
Actual - 6 PA - not enough data
Randal Grichuk
.234/.280/.447/.727
4.0% BB rate, 20.0% K rate, .257 BABIP, .213 ISO
Actual - 48 PA - .136/.191/.273/.464
6.3% BB rate, 31.3% K rate, .179 BABIP, .136 ISO
Oscar Taveras
.292/.343/.482/.825
6.7% BB rate, 13.3% K rate, .311 BABIP, .190 ISO
Actual - 40 PA - .189/.225/.297/.522
5.0% BB rate, 17.5% K rate, .200 BABIP, .108 ISO
Starting Pitchers
Projected
33 starts, 223 2/3 innings pitched, 6.778 IP/start
1.127 WHIP, 8.5 H/9, 0.6 HR/9
8.2 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 4.98 K:BB
3.30 ERA, 2.65 FIP
Actual - 16 starts, 116 1/3 innings, 7.271 IP per start, 0.90 WHIP, 6.42 H/9, 0.31 HR/9
8.12 K/9, 1.70 BB/9, 4.77 K:BB, 2.01 ERA, 2.36 FIP
Each of Wainwright's stats has improved since the 1/4 pole - when he was already pitching amazingly. This year is one for the ages thus far. No jinx, GOBs - Cy Young time for Waino!
Projected
33 starts, 209 innings pitched, 6.333 IP/start
1.316 WHIP, 8.5 H/9, 0.6 HR/9
8.9 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 2.68 K:BB
3.88 ERA, 3.12 FIP
Actual - 16 starts, 99 1/3 innings, 6.208 per start, 1.24 WHIP, 7.97 H/9, 0.54 HR/9
8.06 K/9, 3.17 BB/9, 2.54 K:BB, 2.90 ERA, 3.24 FIP
Lance has lowered his WHIP, H/9, BB/9, HR/9, ERA, and FIP since I last checked in, but has struck less out per 9, lowering his K:BB to just below where I thought it would end up on the year.
Projected
32 starts, 191 innings pitched, 5.969 IP/start
1.288 WHIP, 8.3 H/9, 1.0 HR/9
9.3 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 2.86 K:BB
3.53 ERA, 3.57 FIP
Actual - 16 starts, 93 2/3 innings, 5.854 per start, 1.40 WHIP, 8.17 H/9, 1.06 HR/9
6.34 K/9, 4.42 BB/9, 1.43 K:BB, 3.75 ERA, 4.75 FIP
Miller has slowly been getting better and better this year. His K:BB is on the rise, his HR/9 and WHIP are dropping. Unfortunately, his ERA is catching up to his lowering FIP.
Projected
30 starts, 180 innings pitched, 6.000 IP/start
1.033 WHIP, 7.0 H/9, 0.9 HR/9
8.6 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 3.74 K:BB
2.65 ERA, 3.14 FIP
Actual - 15 starts, 90 1/3 innings, 6.022 IP/start, 1.12 WHIP, 7.47 H/9, 0.50 HR/9
8.27 K/9, 2.59 BB/9, 3.19 K:BB, 2.79 ERA, 3.01 FIP
Wacha's FIP is getting close to what I projected, while his ERA is slightly higher. His K/9 really dropped in his last 7 starts, but nobody expected it to be 10.5 for the year!
Projected
14 starts, 40 relief appearances, 110 total innings, 5.000 IP/start
1.318 WHIP, 8.4 H/9, 0.5 HR/9
8.0 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 2.33 K:BB
3.44 ERA, 3.13 FIP
Actual - 3 starts, 30 relief appearances, 48 innings, 1.33 WHIP, 7.88 H/9, 0.38 HR/9
7.50 K/9, 4.13 BB/9, 1.82 K:BB, 4.13 ERA, 3.47 FIP
Martinez still has not found the strike zone as often as I believe he should be able to and that is keeping his BB rate quite inflated along with his ERA and FIP.
Projected
20 starts, 10 relief appearances, 130 total innings, 5.750 IP/start
1.385 WHIP, 9.2 H/9, 0.6 HR/9
6.1 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 1.87 K:BB
3.12 ERA, 3.69 FIP
Actual - 3 starts, 15 1/3 innings, 5.111 per start, 1.24 WHIP, 8.80 H/9, 0.00 HR/9
5.28 K/9, 2.35 BB/9, 2.25 K:BB, 0.59 ERA, 2.91 FIP
While Joe Kelly was not going deep into games by any stretch of the imagination, he was besting my projections by a fair bit - while those projections were even lower than they would have been if I had simply listed him as a starter - which is all he'd done before his injury this year. I was quite impressed and am sad to hear he has had a setback (or at least minimal progression) in his recovery. It'd be nice to get him back if he's going to continue this trend!
23 starts, 141 innings, 6.130 IP/start
1.324 WHIP, 9.6 H/9, 0.8 HR/9
7.3 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 3.19 K:BB
3.74 ERA, 3.41 FIP
Actual - 7 starts, 43 2/3 innings, 6.238 per start, 1.05 WHIP, 8.04 H/9, 1.24 HR/9
8.04 K/9, 1.44 BB/9, 5.57 K:BB, 4.12 ERA, 3.78 FIP
Jaime has been quite good coming back from injury. His WHIP and K:BB are phenomenal - his HR/9 are quite unlucky. That inflates his FIP quite greatly and his ERA even more. Those'll come down if he keeps pitching this well.
Bullpen
Projected
70 games, 70 innings pitched
1.071 WHIP, 6.9 H/9, 0.5 HR/9
10.9 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 4.05 K:BB
2.19 ERA, 2.27 FIP
Actual - 37 games, 38 1/3 innings, 1.28 WHIP, 6.10 H/9, 0.23 HR/9
11.50 K/9, 5.40 BB/9, 2.13 K:BB, 3.05 ERA, 2.84 FIP
Rosenthal's walk rate creeped down slightly, but it's still way too high for him to be an elite closer like I thought.
Projected
70 games, 62 innings pitched
0.952 WHIP, 5.1 H/9, 0.4 HR/9
9.3 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 2.67 K:BB
2.76 ERA, 2.78 FIP
Actual - 23 games, 20 innings, 1.25 WHIP, 7.65 H/9, 0.45 HR/9
12.15 K/9, 3.60 BB/9, 3.38 K:BB, 3.60 ERA, 2.40 FIP
Siegrist is now out for the year injured - he was pitching incredibly again. :(
Randy Choate
Projected
54 games, 30 innings pitched
1.100 WHIP, 6.3 H/9, 0.3 HR/9
8.4 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 2.33 K:BB
2.70 ERA, 2.82 FIP
Actual - 31 games, 21 1/3 innings, 1.17 WHIP, 7.59 H/9, 0.42 HR/9
8.44 K/9, 2.95 BB/9, 2.86 K:BB
5.48 ERA, 3.10 FIP
After they tried stretching him out to full innings over the first 1/4 of the season, the 2nd quarter of the season saw him throw less innings and lower his WHIP, H/9, HR/9, ERA, and FIP.
Seth Maness
Projected
70 games, 70 innings pitched
1.071 WHIP, 8.6 H/9, 0.6 HR/9
6.3 K/9, 1.0 BB/9, 6.13 K:BB (b/c rounding)
2.96 ERA, 2.93 FIP
Actual - 31 games, 36 1/3 innings, 1.38 WHIP, 10.90 H/9, 0.50 HR/9
5.70 K/9, 1.49 BB/9, 3.83 K:BB
2.72 ERA, 3.13 FIP
Maness hasn't been great, but he hasn't been bad either. His WHIP is far worse than I thought but his FIP is creeping close to where I thought and his ERA is staying down.
Projection
1.300 WHIP, 7.8 H/9, 0.6 HR/9
7.5 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, 1.92 K:BB
3.60 ERA, 3.56 FIP
Actual - 15 games, 15 1/3 innings, 0.85 WHIP, 4.70 H/9, 0.00 HR/9
8.22 K/9, 2.93 BB/9, 2.80 K:BB, 1.76 ERA, 2.45 FIP
Freeman has been quite effective this year as a lefty in the pen. I'm quite impressed. Keep it up, Sam!
Projected
50 games, 50 innings pitched
1.020 WHIP, 6.8 H/9, 0.9 HR/9
9.0 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 3.85 K:BB
3.24 ERA, 3.14 FIP
Actual - 13 games, 10 1/3 innings, 1.65 WHIP, 13.06 H/9, 2.61 HR/9
8.71 K/9, 1.74 BB/9, 5.00 K:BB, 4.35 ERA, 5.52 FIP
We all hope that his peripherals (which are good) are not the lucky stats and that his ridiculously high H/9 and HR/9 are his 'unlucky' stats.
Tyler Lyons (assuming bullpen)
Projected
1.000 WHIP, 7.2 H/9, 0.6 HR/9
9.3 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 5.17 K:BB
2.40 ERA, 2.46 FIP
Actual - 6 games, 4 starts, 25 innings, 1.28 WHIP, 9.00 H/9, 1.44 HR/9
8.28 K/9, 2.52 BB/9, 3.29 K:BB
6.12 ERA, 4.30 FIP
Lyons really got a bad rap this year. His K:BB is great, his WHIP is good, but his H/9 and HR/9 are not. Not close. And now - he's hurt, too.
Projected
1.400 WHIP, 9.5 H/9, 0.5 HR/9
6.3 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 2.00 K:BB
3.38 ERA, 3.36 FIP
Actual - 7 2/3 innings, 1.17 WHIP, 9.39 H/9, 0.00 HR/9
2.35 K/9, 1.17 BB/9, 2.00 K:BB
4.70 ERA, 3.36 FIP
I almost nailed this actually. His WHIP was better than I thought because his BB/9 was lower than I thought - but with that, his K/9 was way down, so his FIP was the same. His ERA was quite an outlier - some poor timing on combination of h
Keith Butler
Projected
1.225 WHIP, 7.2 H/9, 0.7 HR/9
9.0 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, 2.35 K:BB
3.38 ERA, 3.31 FIP
Actual - 2 innings, not enough data
Projected
1.275 WHIP, 8.3 H/9, 1.1 HR/9
7.2 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 2.29 K:BB
4.05 ERA, 4.13 FIP
Actual - 37 games, 32 2/3 innings, 0.55 WHIP, 3.86 H/9, 0.28 HR/9
8.82 K/9, 1.10 BB/9, 8.00 K:BB, 0.83 ERA, 2.09 FIP
Neshek is doing his best Kevin Siegrist circa 2013 impression by being absolutely nails out on the mound. Keep it up, Pat! Prove me wrong! (kept that the same!)
Projected
10 starts, 60 innings, 6.000 IP/start
1.285 WHIP, 8.9 H/9, 0.4 HR/9
8.1 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 3.00 K:BB
2.42 ERA, 2.92 FIP
1 start - 5 innings - not enough data