FanPost

The 2014 Cardinals at the 1/4 Pole v. stlfan's Projections

Catchers


Yadier Molina

Projected

.313/.358/.483/.841

6.4% BB rate, 9.7% K rate, .322 BABIP, .170 ISO

Actual - 151 PAs, .308/.338/.448/.786

4.0% BB rate, 13.2% K rate, .333 BABIP, .140 ISO

Yadi is not walking as much as I thought and is striking out more. His BABIP is higher because of those Ks. His power is lower than I thought it would be as well.

Tony Cruz

Projected

.231/.265/.340/.605

3.9% BB rate, 18.1% K rate, .271 BABIP, .109 ISO

Actual - 24 PAs, .250/.375/.300/.675

16.7% BB rate, 4.2% K rate, .263 BABIP, .050 ISO

Tony Cruz has walked at about the same percentage I thought he would strike out and vice versa. His slugging and ISO are quite a bit lower than I expected, but who cares? If the dude gets on base nearly 38% of the time all year while playing a solid defense, he'll be great as Yadi's back up.

Infielders


Matt Adams

Projected

.282/.329/.520/.849

6.5% BB rate, 22.9% K rate, .319 BABIP, .237 ISO

Actual - 155 PAs, .307/.323/.440/.763

2.6% BB rate, 21.3% K rate, .379 BABIP, .133 ISO

Adams has had the shift employed against him this year in such a way that he is taking singles the opposite direction a lot more often leading to an increased batting average from what I had figured, but much less power.

Kolten Wong

Projected

.265/.324/.389/.713

7.6% BB rate, 14.2% K rate, .296 BABIP, .124 ISO

Actual - 76 plate appearances - .225/.276/.268/.544

6.6% BB rate, 11.8% K rate, .258 BABIP, .042 ISO

Obviously, with Wong being sent down, he's playing much worse than I (and the club) anticipated. Then again, he's now hitting .344/.382/.484/.866 in Memphis - so he's heating back up. it's a shame the team is wasting his hot streak in AAA while neither Descalso nor Ellis is really producing either. (Note: After this was written, Wong got called back up.)

Jhonny Peralta

Projected

.281/.336/.437/.773

7.8% BB rate, 19.3% K rate, .327 BABIP, .156 ISO

Actual - 159 PAs, .250/.340/.479/.819

10.7% BB rate, 17.0% K rate, .257 BABIP, .229 ISO

Peralta had such unlucky PAs early in the year with hitting balls hard right at people that his BABIP is still abnormally low. His power has been incredible - much higher than I anticipated. His BB rate is quite good and K rate is better than I thought. My guess is that he gets more balls to drop in, but also hits with less power from here on out while expanding his strike zone a bit.

Matt Carpenter

Projected

.304/.386/.465/.851

11.1% BB rate, 14.6% K rate, .344 BABIP, .162 ISO

Actual - 184 PAs, .256/.359/.314/.673

13.6% BB rate, 19.5% K rate, .322 BABIP, .058 ISO

Matt Carpenter, I think, is struggling to regain his confidence from last year and seems much more tentative to me in the strike zone. I do not have the offensive swing zone numbers right now to look that up but his BB rate and K rate tell me this as well - especially since he's gone down looking at strike 3 so many times. With that being the case (possibly), it could very much affect his power from last year by not getting good pitches to drive.

Mark Ellis

Projected

.261/.315/.361/.676

6.5% BB rate, 15.5% K rate, .293 BABIP, .100 ISO

Actual - 71 PAs, .190/.268/.222/.490

8.5% BB rate, 19.7% K rate, .240 BABIP, .032 ISO

Before the season started, I had one of the lowest projections in the world for Mark Ellis - who has failed to come close to living up to even my less than modest predictions. You're telling me Wong couldn't do this at the big league level? C'mon Matheny and Mo!

Daniel Descalso

Projected

.242/.300/.354/.654

7.5% BB rate, 17.5% K rate, .281 BABIP, .112 ISO

Actual - 43 PAs, .175/.214/.250/.464

4.7% BB rate, 16.3% K rate, .212 BABIP, .075 ISO

And somehow Descalso is still on the roster...


Pete Kozma

Projected

.221/.280/.309/.589

8.0% BB rate, 19.0% K rate, .264 BABIP, .088 ISO


Actual - 3 PA - not enough data


Greg Garcia

Projected

.250/.350/.363/.713

12.0% BB rate, 18.0% K rate, .299 BABIP, .113 ISO


Actual - 13 PA - not enough data

Outfielders


Matt Holliday

Projected

.298/.387/.498/.885

11.3% BB rate, 16.7% K rate, .330 BABIP, .200 ISO

Actual - 174 PAs, .267/.362/.367/.729

12.6% BB rate, 16.1% K rate, .314 BABIP, .100 ISO

Like most everyone else, his ISO is WAY down, no power out of the big LF so far this year.

Jon Jay

Projected

.289/.350/.393/.743

7.4% BB rate, 15.6% K rate, .329 BABIP, .105 ISO

Actual - 95 PAs, .274/.344/.381/.725

7.4% BB rate, 14.7% K rate, .319 BABIP, .107 ISO

Basically what we thought he'd be.

Allen Craig

Projected

.309/.364/.483/.847

7.1% BB rate, 17.5% K rate, .350 BABIP, .174 ISO


Actual - 162 PAs, .221/.278/.362/.660

6.8% BB rate, 19.8% K rate, .254 BABIP, .141 ISO

Craig's BABIP is way below his career average, but watching his first 6 games I cannot say that this is "unlucky." It took him a full week until he even hit a ball hard this year. He's heating up right now, though. I wouldn't be surprised to see my numbers by the end of the year.

Peter Bourjos

Projected

.257/.313/.403/.716

6.0% BB rate, 23.3% K rate, .317 BABIP, .146 ISO

Actual - 84 PAs, .224/.298/.368/.666

7.1% BB rate, 31.0% K rate, .327 BABIP, .145 ISO

So basically, Bourjos has been who I thought except that his average is quite bad despite a BABIP even bigger than I predicted. This is solely because he's struck out in 7.7% more plate appearances than I thought he would.

Shane Robinson

Projected

.257/.335/.366/.701

10.5% BB rate, 12.5% K rate, .280 BABIP, .109 ISO

Actual - 23 PA - .100/.217/.100/.317

13.0% BB rate, 21.7% K rate, .133 BABIP, .000 ISO

Joey Butler

Projected

.279/.380/.395/.775

12.0% BB rate, 26.0% K rate, .379 BABIP, .116 ISO


Actual - 2 PA - not enough data

Randal Grichuk

.234/.280/.447/.727

2 doubles, 1 triples, 2 homers, 6 runs, 5 RBI, 1 SB, 1 CS

4.0% BB rate, 20.0% K rate, .257 BABIP, .213 ISO

Actual - 22 PA - .143/.182/.286/.468

4.5% BB rate, 31.8% K rate, .214 BABIP, .143 ISO

Randall got his first cup o' joe at the big league level before being sent back down. We'll see more of him this year and beyond.

Starting Pitchers


Adam Wainwright

Projected

33 starts, 223 2/3 innings pitched, 6.778 IP/start

1.127 WHIP, 8.5 H/9, 0.6 HR/9

8.2 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 4.98 K:BB

3.30 ERA, 2.65 FIP

Actual - 9 starts, 64 innings, 7.111 per start, 0.97 WHIP, 6.61 H/9, 0.42 HR/9

7.88 K/9, 2.11 BB/9, 3.73 K:BB, 2.11 ERA, 2.71 FIP

Waino's been about who I thought. His K:BB is a little worse, while his H/9, WHIP, ERA, and IP/start are a bit better. Won't be surprised when it evens out a bit.

Lance Lynn

Projected

33 starts, 209 innings pitched, 6.333 IP/start

1.316 WHIP, 8.5 H/9, 0.6 HR/9

8.9 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 2.68 K:BB

3.88 ERA, 3.12 FIP

Actual - 8 starts, 47 innings, 5.875 per start, 1.32 WHIP, 8.62 H/9, 0.77 HR/9

9.57 K/9, 3.26 BB/9, 2.94 K:BB, 3.83 ERA, 3.36 FIP

Lance's numbers look very much like I projected. The WHIP is right on, H/9 is right on, HR/9 is a bit higher - thus the FIP is a little higher. The K/9 is better, but the BB/9 and ERA are very close. He is who I thought he is except that the K/9 being higher and the long ball happening more often has cut his innings short by nearly 2 outs per game - not an insignificant number, which needs to improve.

Shelby Miller

Projected

32 starts, 191 innings pitched, 5.969 IP/start

1.288 WHIP, 8.3 H/9, 1.0 HR/9

9.3 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 2.86 K:BB

3.53 ERA, 3.57 FIP

Actual - 8 starts, 44 2/3 innings, 5.583 per start, 1.48 WHIP, 7.86 H/9, 1.61 HR/9

6.65 K/9, 5.44 BB/9, 1.22 K:BB, 3.22 ERA, 5.90 FIP

Miller's numbers are nowhere close to where he needs to be. Everything is worse - except his ERA. He's pulling the ol' Joe Kelly routine - with more walks. It's not pretty, but he's somehow coming up with wins. Let's hope that he gets better in a hurry or that W/L is going to flip flop and we'll be in serious trouble.

Michael Wacha

Projected

30 starts, 180 innings pitched, 6.000 IP/start

1.033 WHIP, 7.0 H/9, 0.9 HR/9

8.6 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 3.74 K:BB

2.65 ERA, 3.14 FIP

Actual - 8 starts, 47 1/3 innings, 5.917 IP/start, 1.20 WHIP, 8.18 H/9, 0.57 HR/9

10.84 K/9, 2.66 BB/9, 4.07 K:BB, 2.85 ERA, 2.66 FIP

Wacha has simply been better than expected. Period. I thought my projection system was way too high on Wacha and he has (in some ways) blown even the projection system out of the water. I'm so impressed. Keep it up.

Carlos Martinez

Projected

14 starts, 40 relief appearances, 110 total innings, 5.000 IP/start

1.318 WHIP, 8.4 H/9, 0.5 HR/9

8.0 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 2.33 K:BB

3.44 ERA, 3.13 FIP

Actual - 19 relief appearances, 21 1/3 innings, 1.17 WHIP, 7.59 H/9, 0.42 HR/9

5.91 K/9, 2.95 BB/9, 2.00 K:BB, 4.22 ERA, 3.52 FIP

You'd expect Martinez's numbers to be better than my projection because starters usually get roughed up a bit more than relievers. Carlos simply is not an elite relief pitcher this year. In fact, he scares me as much as several others on the team when brought in. I hope he's not just another Fernando Salas or Eduardo Sanchez who eventually just loses the zone. I really do. Basically, he's been a slightly worse Joe Kelly.

Joe Kelly

Projected

20 starts, 10 relief appearances, 130 total innings, 5.750 IP/start

1.385 WHIP, 9.2 H/9, 0.6 HR/9

6.1 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 1.87 K:BB

3.12 ERA, 3.69 FIP


Actual - 3 starts, 15 1/3 innings, 5.111 per start, 1.24 WHIP, 8.80 H/9, 0.00 HR/9

5.28 K/9, 2.35 BB/9, 2.25 K:BB, 0.59 ERA, 2.91 FIP

While Joe Kelly was not going deep into games by any stretch of the imagination, he was besting my projections by a fair bit - while those projections were even lower than they would have been if I had simply listed him as a starter - which is all he'd done before his injury this year. I was quite impressed and am sad to hear he has had a setback (or at least minimal progression) in his recovery. It'd be nice to get him back if he's going to continue this trend!

Bullpen

Trevor Rosenthal

Projected

70 games, 70 innings pitched

1.071 WHIP, 6.9 H/9, 0.5 HR/9

10.9 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 4.05 K:BB

2.19 ERA, 2.27 FIP

Actual - 15 games, 17 1/3 innings, 1.50 WHIP, 7.79 H/9, 0.52 HR/9

10.90 K/9, 5.71 BB/9, 1.91 K:BB, 5.19 ERA, 3.50 FIP

Rosenthal simply has been horrendous at walking people this year. He's been everything else I expected except for walking an extra batter every three innings. Not good.

Kevin Siegrist

Projected

70 games, 62 innings pitched

0.952 WHIP, 5.1 H/9, 0.4 HR/9

9.3 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 2.67 K:BB

2.76 ERA, 2.78 FIP

Actual - 20 games, 17 2/3 innings, 1.19 WHIP, 8.15 H/9, 0.51 HR/9

12.23 K/9, 2.55 BB/9, 4.80 K:BB, 3.57 ERA, 2.14 FIP

Siegrist has better peripherals than I thought he would, yet gives up more hits and a higher ERA than I projected. Interesting.


Randy Choate
Projected

54 games, 30 innings pitched

1.100 WHIP, 6.3 H/9, 0.3 HR/9

8.4 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 2.33 K:BB

2.70 ERA, 2.82 FIP

Actual - 15 games, 12 innings, 1.33 WHIP, 10.50 H/9, 0.75 HR/9

7.50 K/9, 1.50 BB/9, 5.00 K:BB

6.75 ERA, 3.27 FIP

Maness and Choate have been similar pitchers this year - except Choate's numbers are slightly better - minus his ERA. Despite being told he will be stretched out for full innings more often this year, Choate is still only getting about 12 outs for every 5 appearances or just under 2.5 per appearance.


Seth Maness

Projected

70 games, 70 innings pitched

1.071 WHIP, 8.6 H/9, 0.6 HR/9

6.3 K/9, 1.0 BB/9, 6.13 K:BB (b/c rounding)

2.96 ERA, 2.93 FIP

Actual - 15 games, 16 2/3 innings, 1.50 WHIP, 11.34 H/9, 0.54 HR/9

7.02 K/9, 2.16 BB/9, 3.25 K:BB

2.70 ERA, 3.22 FIP

Thank Goodness Maness hasn't walked many people, because he's giving up hits left, right, and center. Holy cow that's a lot of hits. Not shockingly, Maness' GB% has dropped like 14%.

Tyler Lyons (assuming bullpen)

Projected

1.000 WHIP, 7.2 H/9, 0.6 HR/9

9.3 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 5.17 K:BB

2.40 ERA, 2.46 FIP


Actual - 6 games, 4 starts, 25 innings, 1.28 WHIP, 9.00 H/9, 1.44 HR/9

8.28 K/9, 2.52 BB/9, 3.29 K:BB

6.12 ERA, 4.30 FIP

Lyons really got a bad rap this year. His K:BB is great, his WHIP is good, but his H/9 and HR/9 are not. Not close. And now - he's hurt, too.


Eric Fornataro

Projected

1.400 WHIP, 9.5 H/9, 0.5 HR/9

6.3 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 2.00 K:BB

3.38 ERA, 3.36 FIP


Actual - 7 2/3 innings, 1.17 WHIP, 9.39 H/9, 0.00 HR/9

2.35 K/9, 1.17 BB/9, 2.00 K:BB

4.70 ERA, 3.36 FIP

I almost nailed this actually. His WHIP was better than I thought because his BB/9 was lower than I thought - but with that, his K/9 was way down, so his FIP was the same. His ERA was quite an outlier - some poor timing on combination of h


Keith Butler

Projected

1.225 WHIP, 7.2 H/9, 0.7 HR/9

9.0 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, 2.35 K:BB

3.38 ERA, 3.31 FIP


Actual - 2 innings, not enough data


Pat Neshek

Projected

1.275 WHIP, 8.3 H/9, 1.1 HR/9

7.2 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 2.29 K:BB

4.05 ERA, 4.13 FIP


Actual - 20 games, 17 2/3 innings, 0.57 WHIP, 3.57 H/9, 0.51 HR/9

10.70 K/9, 1.53 BB/9, 7.00 K:BB, 1.02 ERA, 2.14 FIP

Neshek is doing his best Kevin Siegrist circa 2013 impression by being absolutely nails out on the mound. Keep it up, Pat! Prove me wrong!

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