FanPost

Projecting The 2014 St. Louis Cardinals

Last month I wrote a number of fanposts about projecting the Cardinals position players, with the intention of also writing more fanposts about the pitchers. Since I have been incredibly busy over the past month, I did not get past the position players. And my ultimate goal was to compare them to other teams projections.

Anyway, I'm going to still attempt to do this. This article will focus on the Cardinals abilities as a team, in projection form. I like to average the 4 systems available at fangraphs to do this comparison. Below are links to the past articles (all links open in new tabs, no worries):

Yadier Molina: 119 wRC+/4.7 fWAR

Matt Adams: 120/1.8

Wong/Ellis: 90/2

Jhonny Peralta: 105/2.6

Matt Carpenter: 125/4.3

Allen Craig: 128/1.5*

Bourjos/Jay: 101/2.3

Matt Holliday: 138/3.3

So the team average wRC+ projection is 116 and total average projected fWAR is 22.5 for position players.

For pitchers, I'm going to use FIP averages as well as a ERA/FIP hybrid just because I'd like to see that.

*I adjusted down a bit for Allen Craig

For time's sake, I am just going to use the 3 best arms from each team's bullpen. If I have time, I'd like to write about the Brewers, Pirates, and Reds (sorry Cubs). Hopefully within the next week or two...

The Cardinals pitching ERA/FIP projection is 3.40. And FIP: 3.40. Oddly enough, I wasn't expecting that to be equal. I guess that's probably what they'll do lol.

fWAR pitching total: 13.8 (my gut reaction is that the projections are undervaluing these 8 pitchers in WAR)

Team Total Average fWAR projection: 36.3

Next, I will take a look at the total for the Brewers. Who we have to play next! Hopefully we can do well against them again this time.

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