FanPost

Big City In '14

Big City boy Matt Adams is listed at 6' 3" and 260 lbs... something tells me he may weigh a little more than that, but that's up for debate. Matt H. may be colossal, but Matt A. is a juggernaut. The highest projection for him is a .212 ISO, which seems entirely reasonable given that he was even more powerful than that last season.

The average projected ISO is .201, and I kind of think that may be the low end of the range in my somewhat illogical estimation. I guess I just expect something like last season's showing of raw power and home run every 18 or 19 plate appearances. Probably just spoiled, but with Taveras starting the season in the minor leagues, Matt Adams will get the chance to see what he can do on a regular basis at first base.

The Oliver projection system thinks highly enough of him to predict 28 home runs in 143 games. Sign me up! The average projection is more like 24 home runs in 522 plate appearances. So close to or right at a full time player, depending on how you suss that out. The Cardinals best bet at a cleanup hitter next year, as long as he can survive his sizable split vs lefthanded pitching.

One result of this split is surely his .269 batting average expectation by the systems, and the .318 on base percentage is ok but not great. A 120 wRC+ is a pretty good asset for a young player who has plenty of power. One other thing that may hold him back is his defense and slowness on the basepaths, but Oliver seems to think he can at least reach 2.3 fWAR. The average expected fWAR is 1.8, but I think he can do better than that (especially, again, if he can survive his split vs lefties).

Despite his limitations, Adams remains a very exciting young player. He could end up going a lot of different ways... being a bench bat, being a good but not great player, or even an allstar. Who knows? That's why this season is very exciting, we just have not seen enough of the guy yet, and there are plenty of other up and coming players on the team to watch as well. It may make this season rather unpredictable, but no less exciting.

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