FanPost

stlfan's prediction outcomes

So every year I give my predictions before the season starts. At the end of the year, I put up my predictions side by side to what actually happens for your enjoyment (read: posterity's sake).

Enjoy

Yadier Molina

Prediction: 557 PAs, .303/.355/.464/.819 - .355 wOBA, .305 BABIP, .162 ISO, 5.7 uttiWAR

Season Actual: 541 PAs, .319/.359/.477/.836 - .362 wOBA, .338 BABIP, .158 ISO, 5.6 fWAR

Yadi performed almost exactly how I expected, but with a higher wOBA and slightly less time played.

Tony Cruz

Prediction: 125 PAs, .216/.256/.345/.601 - .261 wOBA, .247 BABIP, .129 ISO, -0.2 uttiWAR

Season Actual: 129 PAs, .203/.240/.293/.533 - .234 wOBA, .247 BABIP, .089 ISO, -0.2 fWAR

Cruz was worse offensively, but better defensively, than I thought - making him worth about what I thought he'd be worth.


Allen Craig

Prediction: 550 PAs, .299/.349/.517/.866 - .369 wOBA, .325 BABIP, .218 ISO, 3.0 uttiWAR

Season Actual: 563 PAs, .315/.373/.457/.830 - .363 wOBA, .368 BABIP, .142 ISO, 2.6 fWAR

It seems Craig made better contact than I thought, leading to a higher BABIP than I thought, but had much less power than anticipated.

Matt Carpenter

Prediction: 500 PAs, .286/.376/.441/.817 - .360 wOBA, .327 BABIP, .155 ISO, 2.4 uttiWAR

Season Actual: 717 PAs, .318/.392/.481/.873 - .381 wOBA, .359 BABIP, .163 ISO, 7.0 fWAR

The offensive MVP of the Cardinals was not forseen on FCB. Neither was his impressive defense considering he had never played 2B professionally.

Pete Kozma

Prediction: 500 PAs, .240/.300/.380/.680 - .297 wOBA, .280 BABIP, .140 ISO, 3.3 uttiWAR

Season Actual: 448 PAs, .217/.275/.273/.548 - .241 wOBA, .274 BABIP, .056 ISO, 0.0 fWAR


Dang regression. I predicted a HUGE regression for Kozma. If he could even have done what I predicted, he would have far surpassed the 500 PAs I gave him. Kozma was atrocious this year at the plate, and that might be putting it much more nicely than he deserves.

Daniel Descalso

Prediction: 425 PAs, .243/.308/.348/.656 - .292 wOBA, .282 BABIP, .104 ISO, 0.5 uttiWAR

Season Actual: 358 PAs, .238/.290/.366/.656 - .284 wOBA, .271 BABIP, .128 ISO, -0.3 fWAR

Descalso didn't get nearly as many chances as I thought he would, mainly because he didn't split time at 2B with Carpenter. He only got as many as he did because Kozma couldn't hit at SS. I hit his OPS right on the head! My WAR prediction might have been perfect if he would have only seen time at 2B and 3B, but he's so limited at SS that his WAR plummeted when he played there for nearly a month.

David Freese

Prediction: 575 PAs, .294/.365/.453/.817 - .359 wOBA, .358 BABIP, .158 ISO, 3.9 uttiWAR

Season Actual: 521 PAs, .262/.340/.381/.721 - .322 wOBA, .320 BABIP, .119 ISO, 0.3 fWAR

My prediction for Freese got off to a rocky start immediately. I thought he would break camp with the club, but he started off the season injured, then came back too soon. Not only did he play injured for a while, but his power stayed sapped nearly all year - whether that was the injury's fault, or something else, is yet to be known and probably won't ever be. September has been rocking for Freese, let's hope he carries it over.

Matt Adams

Prediction: 250 PAs, .283/.324/.519/.843 - .357 wOBA, .308 BABIP, .236 ISO, 1.1 uttiWAR

Season Actual: 319 PAs, .284/.335/.503/.839 - .365 wOBA, .337 BABIP, .220 ISO, 1.7 fWAR

Thank goodness he got 70 more PAs than I thought, eh? (Forgive the "eh?" hockey season is upon us.) Also: Nailed it!

Matt Holliday

Prediction: 625 PAs, .299/.384/.508/.892 - .387 wOBA, .336 BABIP, .209 ISO, 5.1 uttiWAR

Season Actual: 602 PAs, .300/.389/.490/.879 - .383 wOBA, .322 BABIP, .190 ISO, 4.5 fWAR

Know why I "NAILED IT!" on Holliday? He's so predictably good year in and year out. That is all.

Jon Jay

Prediction: 500 PAs, .305/.362/.424/.786 - .346 wOBA, .342 BABIP, .120 ISO, 2.2 uttiWAR

Season Actual: 628 PAs, .276/.351/.370/.721 - .319 wOBA, .325 BABIP, .095 ISO, 1.9 fWAR

Jay's hitting was not up to par (errr, my predictions) this year, but he's a decent defensive CF and hit slightly better than Robinson - who got to be used as a platoon somewhat and a defensive OF.

Carlos Beltran

Prediction: 500 PAs, .278/.358/.499/.857 - .369 wOBA, .301 BABIP, .221 ISO, 4.3 uttiWAR

Season Actual: 600 PAs, .296/.339/.491/.830 - .359 wOBA, .314 BABIP, .195 ISO, 2.0 fWAR

It seems that I overestimated Beltran this year in OBP and power - plus defense. Gah.

Shane Robinson

Prediction: 180 PAs, .253/.317/.383/.699 - .309 wOBA, .279 BABIP, .130 ISO, 0.8 uttiWAR

Season Actual: 171 PAs, .250/.345/.319/.664 - .303 wOBA, .264 BABIP, .069 ISO, 0.9 fWAR


It seems I flip-flopped Robinson's ability to get on base and power - which lowered his ISO and likely wOBA as well. Not bad.

Brock Peterson

Prediction: .264/.338/.498/.836 - .357 wOBA, .289 BABIP, .234 ISO

Season Actual: 28 PAs, .077/.143/.077/.220 - .113 wOBA, .133 BABIP, .000 ISO

I had no idea how to compute his incredible independent league statistics to major league ones. I was wrong. Flat out wrong. (SSS)

Ryan Jackson

Prediction: 150 PAs, .222/.273/.311/.584 - .260 wOBA, .248 BABIP, .089 ISO, 0.4 uttiWAR

Season Actual: 7 PAs. Boo.

Jermaine Curtis

Prediction: .243/.333/.314/.646 - .299 wOBA, .264 BABIP, .071 ISO

109 Game Actual: 5 PAs

Adam Wainwright

Prediction: 6.406 IP/start, 1.195 WHIP, 8.4 H/9, 0.7 HR/9, 8.3 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 3.58 K:BB, 3.07 ERA, 3.05 FIP, 4.8 uttiWAR

Season Actual: 7.108 IP/start, 1.07 WHIP, 8.3 H/9, 0.56 HR/9, 8.16 K/9, 1.3 BB/9, 6.26 K:BB, 2.94 ERA, 2.55 FIP, 6.2 fWAR

Waino's throwing more innings than I thought with a much better BB/9 than I thought (and almost everything else exactly correct) led to the increase in WAR. NAILED IT.

Lance Lynn

Prediction: 6 IP/start, 1.294 WHIP, 8.3 H/9, 0.8 HR/9, 9.8 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 2.93 K:BB, 3.25 ERA, 3.27 FIP, 3.9 uttiWAR

Season Actual: 6.111 IP/start, 1.31 WHIP, 8.43 H/9, 0.62 HR/9, 8.84 K/9, 3.39 BB/9, 2.61 K:BB, 3.97 ERA, 3.28 FIP, 3.3 fWAR

Lance Lynn is who I thought he is.

Jaime Garcia

Prediction: 6 IP/start, 1.333 WHIP, 9.6 H/9, 0.7 HR/9, 7.3 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 2.98 K:BB, 3.30 ERA, 3.31 FIP, 2.6 uttiWAR

Season Total: 6.148 IP/start, 1.30 WHIP, 9.27 H/9, 0.98 HR/9, 6.99 K/9, 2.44 BB/9, 2.87 K:BB, 3.58 ERA, 3.73 FIP, 0.5 fWAR

I had Jaime for 30 starts, he only made 9. He was still on pace to be slightly worse than I thought...but not a 2.1 WAR split.

Jake Westbrook

Prediction: 6 IP/start, 1.430 WHIP, 9.8 H/9, 0.7 HR/9, 5.4 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 1.76 K:BB, 4.06 ERA, 4.05 FIP, 1.8 uttiWAR

Season Actual: 1.56 WHIP, 10.18 H/9, 0.54 HR/9, 3.39 K/9, 3.86 BB/9, 0.88 K:BB, 4.63 ERA, 4.62 FIP, -0.2 fWAR

Westy's right arm deteriorated far more quickly than I thought it would and he was given a pity 1 inning start to end the year and his Cardinals' career in game 162.

Shelby Miller

Prediction: 5.929 IP/start, 1.506 WHIP, 9.5 H/9, 1.0 HR/9, 9.3 K/9, 4.0 BB/9, 2.32 K:BB, 3.85 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 1.8 uttiWAR

Season Actual:5.591 IP/start, 1.21 WHIP, 7.89 H/9, 1.04 HR/9, 8.78 K/9, 2.96 BB/9, 2.96 K:BB, 3.06 ERA, 3.67 FIP, 2.1 fWAR

Thank goodness for rookies who are actually ready to step in at the MLB level...this is not the last one of these you'll see was much better than predicted.

Joe Kelly

Prediction: 1.364 WHIP, 8.5 H/9, 0.6 HR/9, 6.1 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, 1.62 K:BB, 4.03 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 0.2 uttiWAR

Season Actual: 1.35 WHIP, 9.0 H/9, 0.73 HR/9, 5.73 K/9, 3.19 BB/9, 1.80 K:BB, 2.69 ERA, 4.01 FIP, 0.4 fWAR

Almost exactly who I thought...

Edward Mujica

Prediction: 1.000 WHIP, 7.5 H/9, 1.0 HR/9, 7.2 K/9, 1.5 BB/9, 4.75 K:BB, 3.55 ERA, 3.54 FIP, 1.2 uttiWAR

Season Actual: 1.01 WHIP, 8.35 H/9, 1.25 HR/9, 6.4 K/9, 0.7 BB/9, 9.2 K:BB, 2.78 ERA, 3.71 FIP, 0.0 fWAR

I wrote about the fungible attributes of bullpens the other day...he was MUCH better than I thought earlier in the year, then the last month became exactly what I thought in a hurry - regression coming hard and fast.

Trevor Rosenthal

Prediction: 1.350 WHIP, 8.7 H/9, 0.7 HR/9, 8.6 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 2.45 K:BB, 3.38 ERA, 3.41 FIP, 1.3 uttiWAR

Season Actual: 1.10 WHIP, 7.53 H/9, 0.48 HR/9, 12.9 K/9, 2.39 BB/9, 5.4 K:BB, 2.63 ERA, 1.91 FIP, 2.2 fWAR

Even better than I thought - and why I hope he gets a shot at starting in the spring.

Fernando Salas

Prediction: 1.209 WHIP, 7.7 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 9.1 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 2.83 K:BB, 3.63 ERA, 3.58 FIP, 1.2 uttiWAR

Season Actual: 1.18 WHIP, 8.68 H/9, 0.96 HR/9, 7.07 K/9, 1.93 BB/9, 3.67 K:BB, 4.50 ERA, 3.62 FIP, 0.0 fWAR

Not sure why he's been given up on.

Randy Choate

Prediction: 1.200 WHIP, 6.7 H/9, 0.5 HR/9, 9.3 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, 2.25 K:BB, 3.34 ERA, 3.23 FIP, 0.5 uttiWAR

Season Actual: 1.05 WHIP, 6.62 H/9, 0.0 HR/9, 7.13 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 2.55 K:BB, 2.29 ERA, 2.57 FIP, 0.5 fWAR

I just want to point out that I predicted 72 games played and 35 innings pitched. He threw in 64 games and threw 35 1/3 innings. Not bad for "wacky item of the day."

Seth Maness

Prediction: 1.228 WHIP, 10.31 H/9, 0.91 HR/9, 5.41 K/9, 0.74 BB/9, 7.28 K:BB, 3.39 ERA, 3.54 FIP

Season Actual: 1.26 WHIP, 9.44 H/9, 0.58 HR/9, 5.08 K/9, 1.89 BB/9, 2.69 K:BB, 2.32 ERA, 3.44 FIP

Nailed it!

Carlos Martinez

Prediction: 1.436 WHIP, 9.32 H/9, 0.57 HR/9, 7.22 K/9, 3.60 BB/9, 2.01 K:BB, 3.67 ERA, 3.60 FIP

Season Actual: 1.41 WHIP, 9.85 H/9, 0.32 HR/9, 7.62 K/9, 2.86 BB/9, 2.67 K:BB, 5.08 ERA, 3.08 FIP

Tyler Lyons

Prediction: 1.433 WHIP, 10.2 H/9, 1.1 HR/9, 7.4 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 2.72 K:BB, 3.90 ERA, 3.96 FIP, 0.6 uttiWAR

Season Actual: 1.23 WHIP, 8.32 H/9, 0.85 HR/9, 7.3 K/9, 2.72 BB/9, 2.69 K:BB, 4.75 ERA, 3.73 FIP, 0.4 uttiWAR

Not bad.

Michael Wacha

Prediction: (starter) 5.0 IP/start, 1.320 WHIP, 8.55 H/9, 1.1 HR/9, 7 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 2.11 K:BB, 4.32 ERA, 4.29 FIP

Prediction: (reliever) 0.900 WHIP, 5.85 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 7.2 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 2.67 K:BB, 3.83 ERA, 3.78 FIP

Really had 9 starts, 6 in relief, 64 2/3 innings

Season actual: 1.10 WHIP, 7.24 H/9, 0.7 HR/9, 9.05 K/9, 2.64 BB/9, 3.42 K:BB, 2.78 ERA, 2.92 FIP, 1.1 fWAR


Either way, better than advertised here.

Keith Butler

Prediction: 1.467 WHIP, 8.82 H/9, 0.8 HR/9, 8.2 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, 1.87 K:BB, 4.03 ERA, 4.03 FIP

Season Actual: 1.20 WHIP, 5.85 H/9, 0.00 HR/9, 7.2 K/9, 4.95 BB/9, 1.45 K:BB, 4.05 ERA, 3.25 FIP, 0.1 fWAR


I suppose I was close but over.

Kevin Siegrest

Prediction: 1.250 WHIP, 7.2 H/9, .9 HR/9, 8.10 K/9, 4.05 BB/9, 2.00 K:BB, 4.05 ERA, 4.03 FIP

Season Actual: 0.88 WHIP, 3.86 H/9, 0.23 HR/9, 11.34 K/9, 4.08 BB/9, 2.78 K:BB, 0.45 ERA, 2.29 FIP, 0.7 fWAR

Wow. He was SOOOOOOOOO good.

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