Pre-Season Predictions Recap, and an Early Bird Chat Thread.

Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sport

I was going to put these in a fanpost, but I'll slide them on in here as a place to talk about BASEBALL! until the daythread comes along.

Robth grabbed our collective answers from my pre-season predictions contest and made a handy dandy spreadsheet for me. Thanks, Rob! I thought it would be fun to look at what we thought as a group before the season began.
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Here is a link to the individual results. Congratulations again to Mcgeesabeast & Stumpy657 for winning & santiagofish for not winning. All prizes are in the mail.

1. The St Louis Cardinals will finish the 2013 season with this many wins:

A) <71     0

B) 72-81    1%

C) 81-87     28%

D) 88-93     61%

E) 94-99      9% Our most optimistic hopes were realized

F) 100 or more     0

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2Who will win the NL Central in 2013?

A) The St Louis Cardinals      46% We were right that it was close. We didn't see the Pirates coming at all.

B) The Cincinnati Reds      54%

C) The Milwaukee Brewers  0

D) The Pittsburgh Pirates     0

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3. Yadier Molina's wOBA at the end of the 2013 season will be

A) <.320     1%

B) .321-.340     13%

C) .341-.355     61%

D) .356-.370      22%

E) .371+      2%

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4. Who will hit the most home-runs in 2013?

A) Matt Holliday     24%

B) Allen Craig     71%

C) Yadier Molina     0

D) Carlos Beltran      5% Craig's dip in power surprised us, as did his BA with RISP. We won't discuss which is more predictive for next year. Thank goodness for Beltran.

E) David Freese     1%

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5. What will Pete Kozma's 2013 OPS be?

A) <.600      4% We probably should have seen it coming. We did not.

B). 601-.625      18%

C) .626-.650     27%

D) .651-.684     29%

E) .685-.724 2012 league average SS- league average hitter 18%

F) >.725, better than 2012’s average hitter.     5%  HEH!

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6. Who will have the lowest ERA in 2013, while throwing at least 120 innings?

A) Adam Wainwright      71% Our best showing, predictions-wise. Of course, if I had added Kelly to this list, we'd all have missed it. He beat out Waino.

B) Jaime Garcia       8%

C) Lance Lynn     10%

D) Jake Westbrook     0

E) Shelby Miller     7%

F) Kyle Lohse (yes, you read right)     4%

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7. Joe Kelly will make this many major league starts in 2013

A) 0     0

B) 1-3     8%

C)4-6     27%

D)7-9     32%

E)10+      33% It's tough to tell in retrospect whether this question was about a belief in Kelly's abilities or a belief in the original starting 5's ability to stay healthy.

8. Who will lead the Cardinals in saves in 2013?

A) Jason Motte     59%

B) Mitchell Boggs     18%

C) Trevor Rosenthal     20%

D) Someone else.      4% Yep.


It's hard to remember how the year looked to us at the beginning of the season. We see ourselves as being a smart, well-informed community, which I think is mostly true. Yet we were way off base on yet another predictions contest. These questions aren't great, and they were written more with an eye for entertainment than something by which we can  measure our acuity. Still, I think this serves as a good reminder of just how unpredictable baseball can be.

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