FanPost

A look at my pre-season predictions at the 120 game mark

This is a continuation of my looks back at my pre-season predictions for individual Cardinals - this time at the 3/4 mark of the season. This is my last look-in before the end of the regular season.

C - Yadier Molina

Prediction: .289/.343/.411 - 7.4% BB rate, 8.8% K rate, .332 wOBA, .298 BABIP, and .122 ISO

40 game Actual: .301/.352/.511 - 6.1% BB rate, 9.5% K rate, .379 wOBA, .304 BABIP, and .211 ISO

81 game Actual: .309/.360/.509 - 6.8% BB rate, 9.9% K rate, .377 wOBA, .307 BABIP, and .201 ISO

120 game Actual: .317/.367/.507 - 6.5% BB rate, 10.2% K rate, .377 wOBA, .323 BABIP, and .190 ISO

Yadi has been the dictionary definition of consistency this year. He has begun to strike out a little more and his ISO has dropped. Part of that could be his recent injury and part of it could be that he was hitting so well that something had to drop - although his OBP continues to rise, making him nearly more valuable than before, incredibly.

My Grade: B-

C - Tony Cruz

Prediction: .217/.269/.311 - 6.3% BB rate, 20.0% K rate, .259 wOBA, .262 BABIP, and .093 ISO

40 game Actual: .133/.133/.167 - 0.0% BB rate, 20.0% K rate, .131 wOBA, .167 BABIP, and .033 ISO

81 game Actual: .196/.196/.304 - 0.0% BB rate, 12.5% K rate, .205 wOBA, .208 BABIP, .107 ISO

120 game Actual: .226/.240/.355 - 2.1% BB rate, 13.5% K rate, .248 wOBA, .250 BABIP, .129 ISO

Tony Cruz only has 96 plate appearances to this point, now - with 40 PAs in the last 39 games. His numbers are getting better still and are now around what I projected. I asked for 75-100 PAs before grading my predictions. He's there, so I guess I better put up or shut up.

Grade: B-

1B - Lance Berkman

Prediction: .280/.396/.499 - 16.0% BB rate, 16.5% K rate, .390 wOBA, .301 BABIP, and .219 ISO

40 game Actual: .333/.429/.571 - 12.2% BB rate, 22.0% K rate, .490 wOBA, .400 BABIP, .392 ISO

81 game Actual: .333/.429/.571 - 12.2% BB rate, 22.0% K rate, .490 wOBA, .400 BABIP, .392 ISO

120 game Actual: .267/.389/.467 - 14.4% BB rate, 18.9% K rate, .368 wOBA, .321 BABIP, .200 ISO

Berk came back for a few PAs, but is injured yet again. He may come back in September in a PH role. *sigh*

Grade: Incomplete

1B - Matt Carpenter

Prediction: .240/.325/.349 - 10.5% BB rate, 16.5% K rate, .305 wOBA, .277 BABIP, .109 ISO

40 game Actual: .283/.348/.505 - 8.9% BB rate, 21.4% K rate, .362 wOBA, .338 BABIP, .222 ISO

81 game Actual: .289/.352/.500 - 7.6% BB rate, 21.4% K rate, .359 wOBA, .351 BABIP, .211 ISO

120 game Actual: .311/.382/.503 - 9.5% BB rate, 19.1% K rate, .376 wOBA, .373 BABIP, .192 ISO

You know what - NOTHING Carpenter did in the minors would have made me expect for him to hit with this much pop in his bat, nor strike out this much. He is turning into a masher, and I'm okay with that. His OBP is ridiculous right now (his minor league peripherals would have suggested that, eventually, but I didn't expect it in his first campaign in STL.

Grade: C-

1B/OF - Allen Craig

Prediction: .282/.338/.483 - 7.5% BB rate, 17.0% K rate, .352 wOBA, .304 BABIP, .202 ISO

40 game Actual: .373/.424/.765 - 10.2% BB rate, 22.0% K rate, .490 wOBA, .400 BABIP, .392 ISO

81 game Actual: .314/.385/.635 - 10.6% BB rate, 20.7% K rate, .426 wOBA, .330 BABIP, .321 ISO

120 game Actual: .305/.366/.574 - 9.0% BB rate, 19.5% K rate, .396 wOBA, .333 BABIP, .268 ISO

Craig has finally cooled off to an OPS of .940. Yes. "Cooled off" to the 11th best OPS in the majors with at least 300 PAs. Man Crush indeed.

Grade: B-

2B - Tyler Greene

Prediction: .248/.324/.391 - 8.4% BB rate, 25.2% K rate, .317 wOBA, .316 BABIP, .142 ISO

40 game Actual: .227/.301/.427 - 8.4% BB rate, 27.7% K rate, .325 wOBA, .286 BABIP, .200 ISO

81 game Actual: .229/.288/.382 - 7.0% BB rate, 27.5% K rate, .296 wOBA, .302 BABIP, .153 ISO

Traded

Grade: N/A

2B - Daniel Descalso

Prediction: .251/.305/.340 - 7.5% BB rate, 13.5% K rate, .288 wOBA, .280 BABIP, and .089 ISO

40 game Actual: .203/.304/.348 - 11.3% BB rate, 28.8% K rate, .289 wOBA, .289 BABIP, and .145 ISO

81 game Actual: .227/.318/.341 - 10.8% BB rate, 22.7% K rate, .288 wOBA, .289 BABIP, and .114 ISO

120 game Actual: .230/.308/.327 - 9.1% BB rate, 18.2% K rate, .279 wOBA, .278 BABIP, .097 ISO

I tell you what, he's about 3 doubles in his next 10 AB away from hitting him right on the nose.

Grade: A

2B - Skip Schumaker

Prediction: .280/.338/.357 - 7.8% BB rate, 12.3% K rate, .313 wOBA, .314 BABIP, and .077 ISO

40 game Actual: .314/.375/.412 - 8.9% BB rate, 14.3% K rate, .339 wOBA, .372 BABIP, and .098 ISO

81 game Actual: .283/.353/.396 - 10.0% BB rate, 15.0% K rate, .324 wOBA, .337 BABIP, and .113 ISO

120 game Actual: .313/.387/.420 - 10.9% BB rate, 13.9% K rate, .350 wOBA, .369 BABIP, .108 ISO

Skip continues to get on base at an astonishing rate. His SLG is still only .033 points higher than his OBP, but his OBP is so much higher than I thought it would be that it makes him a very valuable hitter. Now, if only he had a defensive position in this non-AL lineup.

Grade: B

SS - Rafael Furcal

Prediction: .263/.328/.390 - 8.6% BB rate, 12.2% K rate, .318 wOBA, .282 BABIP, .127 ISO

40 game Actual: .351/.410/.474 - 9.1% BB rate, 10.3% K rate, .394 wOBA, .382 BABIP, .123 ISO

81 game Actual: .273/.341/.367 - 9.1% BB rate, 10.5% K rate, .315 wOBA, .296 BABIP, .093 ISO

120 game Actual: .269/.335/.356 - 9.0% BB rate, 10.5% K rate, .308 wOBA, .293 BABIP, .087 ISO

Rafael Furcal is just now starting to hit again. In the past 5 games (since his last day off), he has a 1.235 OPS - with his first five XBH since July 20th. I'm hoping the injury is behind him and he can end the year with a bit more pop and get back up to my prediction (if not his first 40+ game stats).

Grade: B-

3B - David Freese

Prediction: .308/.365/.472 - 7.3% BB rate, 20.8% K rate, .365 wOBA, .368 BABIP, and .164 ISO

40 game Actual: .266/.327/.482 - 7.8% BB rate, 22.9% K rate, .351 wOBA, .299 BABIP, and .216 ISO

81 game Actual: .286/.334/.479 - 6.6% BB rate, 24.8% K rate, .348 wOBA, .347 BABIP, .193 ISO

120 game Actual: .300/.368/.479 - 9.0% BB rate, 22.1% K rate, .364 wOBA, .361 BABIP, .179 ISO

Look how much that BB rate jumped in the last 40 games! My predictions are within reach - shutting up now.

Grade: A

LF - Matt Holliday

Prediction: .309/.392/.539 - 10.9% BB rate, 16.0% K rate, .401 wOBA, .336 BABIP, and .230 ISO

40 game Actual: .269/.337/.488 - 9.6% BB rate, 19.1% K rate, .355 wOBA, .288 BABIP, and .219 ISO

81 game Actual: .313/.395/.523 - 11.8% BB rate, 17.3% K rate, .392 wOBA, .348 BABIP, .210 ISO

120 game Actual: .306/.385/.527 - 10.7% BB rate, 18.4% K rate, .389 wOBA, .340 BABIP, .221 ISO

Closer...closer...

Grade: A-

CF - Jon Jay

Prediction: .281/.332/.400 - 6.7% BB rate, 14.7% K rate, .321 wOBA, .311 BABIP, and .119 ISO

40 game Actual: .343/.395/.438 - 6.0% BB rate, 9.4% K rate, .370 wOBA, .370 BABIP, and .095 ISO

81 game Actual: .326/.387/.411 - 7.0% BB rate, 12.7% K rate, .360 wOBA, .370 BABIP, .085 ISO

120 game Actual: .304/.388/.407 - 8.9% BB rate, 13.1% K rate, .357 wOBA, .347 BABIP, .103 ISO

I think we can officially say that Jay is past his injury. His BABIP has dropped to within acceptable range. His BA has dropped with it, but he has taken enough walks and kept his ISO high enough to give him incredibly acceptable OBP and SLG - especially for a plus defending (in my mind) CF.

Grade: B-

RF - Carlos Beltran

Prediction: .295/.380/.505 - 12.0% BB rate, 14.4% K rate, .383 wOBA, .318 BABIP, and .210 ISO

40 game Actual: .298/.403/.634 - 13.6% BB rate, 21.4% K rate, .443 wOBA, .306 BABIP, and .336 ISO

81 game Actual: .304/.394/.565 - 12.7% BB rate, 17.4% K rate, .400 wOBA, .315 BABIP, and .261 ISO

120 game Actual: .278/.347/.532 - 9.5% BB rate, 19.7% K rate, .367 wOBA, .293 BABIP, and .254 ISO

Carlos Beltran has simply stopped taking walks. His eye has deceived him over the last 40 games and everything has dropped off since then.

Grade: B

OF - Shane Robinson

Prediction: .242/.290/.363 - 6.0% BB rate, 10.0% K rate, .287 wOBA, .247 BABIP, and .121 ISO

40 game Actual: .259/.306/.345 - 6.5% BB rate, 22.6% K rate, .288 wOBA, .326 BABIP, and .086 ISO

81 game Actual: .252/.295/.341 - 6.1% BB rate, 18.9% K rate, .276 wOBA, .299 BABIP, .089 ISO

120 game Actual: .257/.311/.346 - 7.4% BB rate, 18.2% K rate, .286 wOBA, .306 BABIP, and .088 ISO

Despite his not being able to SLG his way out of a paper bag at times, Robinson's ability to take more walks than I thought - and continue to keep a higher BABIP than I thought - has kept him at approximately the same value as I believed he would have to the team this year. I think if he were a bit more assertive defensively that he would be a fantastic 5th outfielder for the Cardinals.

Grade: B+

As far as pitchers go, I will list them by IP/GS, ERA, WHIP, H/9, K:BB, K/9, BB/9, HR/9, FIP

SP - Adam Wainwright

Prediction: 6.429 IP/GS, 2.60 ERA, 1.122 WHIP, 7.8 H/9, 3.43 K:BB, 8.1 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9, 3.11 FIP

40 game Actual: 5.458 IP/GS, 5.77 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 10.51 H/9, 2.50 K:BB, 8.24 K/9, 3.30 BB/9, 1.44 HR/9, 4.39 FIP

81 game Actual: 6.042 IP/GS, 4.75 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 9.50 H/9, 3.25 K:BB, 8.47 K/9, 2.61 BB/9, 0.93 HR/9, 3.46 FIP

120 game Actual: 6.306 IP/GS, 3.87 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 8.74 H/9, 3.84 K:BB, 8.44 K/9, 2.20 BB/9, 0.71 HR/9, 3.06 FIP

OMG, Waino is pitching some of the best ball of his life right now! Look at the trends from 40 to 81 to 120 games! Every single statistic is headed in the right direction - except his K/9 has even out. That's incredible. Look for him to end up very close to my predictions, with the ERA not quite getting there (at least my current guess.)

Grade: B (we're getting there)

SP - Jaime Garcia

Prediction: 6.061 IP/GS, 3.29 ERA, 1.325 WHIP, 9.1 H/9, 2.60 K:BB, 7.4 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.39 FIP

40 game Actual: 6.417 IP/GS, 3.68 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 10.52 H/9, 2.57 K:BB, 6.31 K/9, 2.45 BB/9, 0.18 HR/9, 2.64 FIP

81 game Actual: 6.030 IP/GS, 4.48 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 10.58 H/9, 2.68 K:BB, 6.92 K/9, 2.58 BB/9, 0.27 HR/9, 2.78 FIP

120 game Actual: ditto

Jaime Garcia's first game back will be today (8/19/12), so his stats have not changed.

Grade: Incomplete

SP - Kyle Lohse

Prediction: 6.100 IP/GS, 4.23 ERA, 1.328 WHIP, 9.5 H/9, 2.27 K:BB, 5.5 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9, 4.05 FIP

40 game Actual: 6.25 IP/GS, 2.70 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 8.1 H/9, 4.00 K:BB, 5.76 K/9, 1.44 BB/9, 0.72 HR/9, 3.33 FIP

81 game Actual: 6.43 IP/GS, 2.80 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 8.48 H/9, 3.32 K:BB, 5.19 K/9, 1.56 BB/9, 0.73 HR/9, 3.71 FIP

120 game Actual: 6.48 IP/GS, 2.61 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 8.22 H/9, 3.16 K:BB, 5.61 K/9, 1.78 BB/9, 0.67 HR/9, 3.48 FIP

Lohse continues to outpitch nearly everything I came up with.

Grade: C

SP - Jake Westbrook

Prediction: 5.654 IP/GS, 4.41 ERA, 1.435 WHIP, 9.6 H/9, 1.61 K:BB, 5.3 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.25 FIP

40 game Actual: 6.542 IP/GS, 2.58 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 8.77 H/9, 2.62 K:BB, 5.85 K/9, 2.24 BB/9, 0.52 HR/9, 3.22 FIP

81 game Actual: 6.188 IP/GS, 3.91 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 9.73 H/9, 2.50 K:BB, 5.91 K/9, 2.36 BB/9, 0.73 HR/9, 3.65 FIP

120 game Actual: 6.431 IP/GS, 3.50 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 9.16 H/9, 2.32 K:BB, 5.54 K/9, 2.39 BB/9, 0.58 HR/9, 3.60 FIP

Despite his strikeout numbers coming down and his walk rate rising, Westy's sinker has kept the fly balls from leaving the park - keeping 59.2% of the batted balls on the ground. His IP/GS and ERA went in the right direction, which helps a team whose bullpen has struggled immensely.

Grade: C+

SP - Lance Lynn

Prediction: 5.000 IP/GS, 3.67 ERA, 1.328 WHIP, 8.7 H/9, 2.47 K:BB, 8.0 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9, 3.52 FIP

40 game Actual: 6.333 IP/GS, 2.31 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 6.22 H/9, 3.06 K:BB, 8.70 K/9, 2.84 BB/9, 0.53 HR/9, 2.81 FIP

81 game Actual: 6.063 IP/GS, 3.62 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 8.07 H/9, 2.88 K:BB, 9.09 K/9, 3.15 BB/9, 0.84 HR/9, 3.43 FIP

120 game Actual: 5.931 IP/GS, 3.73 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 8.35 H/9, 2.70 K:BB, 9.04 K/9, 3.35 BB/9, 0.82 HR/9, 3.54 FIP

I'm still rocking this prediction!

Grade: A

SP - Joe Kelly

Late Prediction: 6.000 IP/GS, 5.13 ERA, 1.986 WHIP, 12.75 H/9, 1.34 K:BB, 6.875 K/9, 5.125 BB/9, 0.625 HR/9, 4.26 FIP

120 game Actual: 5.72 IP/GS, 3.41 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 9.83 H/9, 1.96 K:BB, 5.90 K/9, 3.01 BB/9, 0.79 HR/9, 4.01 FIP

Kelly would have far outpitched what I would have predicted had I predicted the moment he came up to the majors. The prediction at that point would have been better than what I would have predicted before the season. He has been a bright spot and I hope he shines in the bullpen.

Grade: D

RP - Mitchell Boggs

Prediction: 3.80 ERA, 1.408 WHIP, 9.1 H/9, 2.00 K:BB, 7.1 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.70 FIP

40 game Actual: 2.70 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 8.10 H/9, 2.71 K:BB, 10.26 K/9, 3.78 BB/9, 0.00 HR/9, 2.13 FIP

81 game Actual: 2.02 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 7.32 H/9, 3.00 K:BB, 6.81 K/9, 2.27 BB/9, 0.50 HR/9, 3.21 FIP

120 game Actual: 2.13 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 7.20 H/9, 3.07 K:BB, 7.04 K/9, 2.29 BB/9, 0.65 HR/9, 3.41 FIP

While Boggs HR rate keeps going up slightly, his FIP will follow. Howver, his other peripherals (H/9, K/9, BB/9) are all doing quite well. It has kept his ERA and WHIP low. To become elite, he's going to have to figure out a way to strike out more batters - like he was doing in the first 40 games - while keeping his walk rate relatively low (where it is at now).

Grade: C

RP - Fernando Salas

Prediction: 2.92 ERA, 1.065 WHIP, 6.8 H/9, 3.38 K:BB, 9.5 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.19 FIP

40 game Actual: 5.52 ERA, 1.91 WHIP, 11.66 H/9, 2.22 K:BB, 12.27 K/9, 5.52 BB/9, 0.61 HR/9, 2.97 FIP

81 game Actual: 5.60 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, 10.54 H/9, 1.88 K:BB, 9.88 K/9, 5.27 BB/9, 0.66 HR/9, 3.58 FIP

120 game Actual: 4.30 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 8.59 H/9, 2.19 K:BB, 9.41 K/9, 4.30 BB/9, 0.61 HR/9, 3.39 FIP

Salas is doing much better lately. His ERA still isn't sterling, but it's dropping like a rock. He has continued to walk less people, while striking out people at a good rate for relievers (over one per inning). His FIP is following suit - my prediction could be really close if he is simply lights out over the last 40 games.

Grade: C+

RP - Jason Motte

Prediction: 2.63 ERA, 1.077 WHIP, 7.1 H/9, 3.32 K:BB, 8.7 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9, 2.92 FIP

40 game Actual: 2.30 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 5.74 H/9, 4.50 K:BB, 10.34 K/9, 2.30 BB/9, 1.15 HR/9, 3.10 FIP

81 game Actual: 3.25 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 5.75 H/9, 3.00 K:BB, 9.00 K/9, 3.00 BB/9, 1.25 HR/9, 3.96 FIP

120 game Actual: 2.79 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 6.10 H/9, 3.93 K:BB, 10.28 K/9, 2.61 BB/9, 1.22 HR/9, 3.56 FIP

The numbers would have looked better last week - before the last two outings. I'd love to see Motte just go on a tear and not allow another HR the rest of the year to get his HR/9 total near what I predicted. Were that to happen, with his K rate and BB rate staying close to where it is currently located, Motte's FIP could drop by 0.5 or so and my prediction would be pretty darn close - unless he continues to only allow 6 hits per 9, in which case I would still be a bit off...

Grade: B-

RP - Eduardo Sanchez

Prediction: 2.55 ERA, 1.117 WHIP, 6.0 H/9, 2.74 K:BB, 11.1 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, 0.5 HR/9, 2.71 FIP

81 game Actual: 6.60 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 6.60 H/9, 1.00 K:BB, 7.80 K/9, 7.80 BB/9, 1.20 HR/9, 5.87 FIP

120 game Actual: ditto

Sanchez got sent down because he was struggling so badly. We'll see him again in September if he can do okay in the minors for a bit longer.

Grade: F

RP - Victor Marte

Not predicted, now gone.

Grade: N/A

RP - Marc Rzepczynski

Prediction: 3.92 ERA, 1.387 WHIP, 8.4 H/9, 2.14 K:BB, 8.7 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9, 3.65 FIP

40 game Actual: 2.45 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 6.14 H/9, 3.00 K:BB, 5.52 K/9, 1.84 BB/9, 1.23 HR/9, 4.13 FIP

81 game Actual: 5.86 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 11.06 H/9, 2.00 K:BB, 5.86 K/9, 2.93 BB/9, 1.95 HR/9, 5.56 FIP

120 game Actual: 4.93 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 8.92 H/9, 1.73 K:BB, 6.10 K/9, 3.52 BB/9, 1.64 HR/9, 5.29 FIP

There's not a single lefty who is pitching well enough to be the shut down LOOGY in the pen. Scrabble's problem has either been getting hit hard or missing the zone - and even THAT hasn't been consistent throughout the year - jumping from one to the other.

Grade: D+

RP - Kyle McClellan

Prediction: 3.05 ERA, 1.246 WHIP, 7.9 H/9, 1.96 K:BB, 6.5 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.04 FIP

40 game Actual: 5.30 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 10.51 H/9, 2.50 K:BB, 8.24 K/9, 3.30 BB/9, 1.44 HR/9, 4.39 FIP

Injured for remainder of season.

Grade: Incomplete

RP - Sam Freeman

Prediction: 3.50 ERA, 1.611 WHIP, 9.0 H/9, 1.18 K:BB, 6.5 K/9, 5.5 BB/9, 1.0 HR/9, 5.01 FIP

81 game Actual: 6.00 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 7.5 H/9, 1.43 K:BB, 7.50 K/9, 5.25 BB/9, 1.50 HR/9, 5.57 FIP

Minors for last 1/4 of year.

Grade: A-

RP - Maikel Cleto

Prediction: 5.00 ERA, 1.611 WHIP, 10.0 H/9, 1.67 K:BB, 7.5 K/9, 4.5 BB/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.46 FIP

81 game Actual: 5.14 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 14.14 H/9, 11.00 K:BB, 14.14 K/9, 1.29 BB/9, 3.86 HR/9, 6.35 FIP

120 game Actual: 7.00 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 13.00 H/9, 7.50 K:BB, 15.00 K/9, 2.00 BB/9, 4.00 HR/9, 6.54 FIP

Well, Cleto threw 2 more innings. He was a 2 outcome pitcher - he either gave up a homer or struck a guy out - basically.

Grade: incomplete, 9 IP

The Cardinals have also tried Barret Browning, JC Romero, and Brian Fuentes from the left side in the pen this year - Browning is still up. They have had Chuckie Fick, Brandon Dickson, and Trevor Rosenthal try from the right side (with Rosenthal still up) and have traded for Edward Mujica, who has been great in just over 7 innings since coming over from the Marlins.

That's the end of my 3/4 pole look at my pre-season predictions, however. Can't wait to see how they end up as I have inched closer and closer to greatness, I believe.

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