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My Pre-Season Predictions - checking in at the halfway mark.

I'm just checking in on my pre-season predictions again...this time at the halfway mark.

C – Yadier Molina

Prediction: .289/.343/.411 - 7.4% BB rate, 8.8% K rate, .332 wOBA, .298 BABIP, and .122 ISO

40 game Actual: .301/.352/.511 – 6.1% BB rate, 9.5% K rate, .379 wOBA, .304 BABIP, and .211 ISO

81 game Actual: .309/.360/.509 - 6.8% BB rate, 9.9% K rate, .377 wOBA, .307 BABIP, and .201 ISO

Yadi has continued to hit basically the exact same over the second quarter of the season as he did in the first quarter of the season - leaving his totals nearly identical as before. Therefore, my grade will stay constant.

My Grade: B-

C – Tony Cruz

Prediction: .217/.269/.311 - 6.3% BB rate, 20.0% K rate, .259 wOBA, .262 BABIP, and .093 ISO

40 game Actual: .133/.133/.167 – 0.0% BB rate, 20.0% K rate, .131 wOBA, .167 BABIP, and .033 ISO

81 game Actual: .196/.196/.304 - 0.0% BB rate, 12.5% K rate, .205 wOBA, .208 BABIP, .107 ISO

Tony Cruz only has 56 plate appearances to this point. His numbers are getting better and more toward what I projected. Let's get him to at least 75-100 plate appearances before I grade him.

Grade: Incomplete

1B – Lance Berkman

Prediction: .280/.396/.499 - 16.0% BB rate, 16.5% K rate, .390 wOBA, .301 BABIP, and .219 ISO

40 game Actual: .333/.429/.571 – 12.2% BB rate, 22.0% K rate, .490 wOBA, .400 BABIP, .392 ISO

81 game Actual: .333/.429/.571 – 12.2% BB rate, 22.0% K rate, .490 wOBA, .400 BABIP, .392 ISO

We're at the same point with Berk, although it looks like he may come back soon. Let's hope so, especially if he's going to continue to put up that incredible line.

Grade: Incomplete

1B – Matt Carpenter

Prediction: .240/.325/.349 - 10.5% BB rate, 16.5% K rate, .305 wOBA, .277 BABIP, .109 ISO

40 game Actual: .283/.348/.505 – 8.9% BB rate, 21.4% K rate, .362 wOBA, .338 BABIP, .222 ISO

81 game Actual: .289/.352/.500 - 7.6% BB rate, 21.4% K rate, .359 wOBA, .351 BABIP, .211 ISO

An injury to Carpenter led to his only garnering 33 plate appearances in 41 games. Since coming back from the injury, however, those have been 33 good plate appearances, as he continues what he did early on. I'll keep my grade the same here, too.

Grade: C

1B/OF – Allen Craig

Prediction: .282/.338/.483 - 7.5% BB rate, 17.0% K rate, .352 wOBA, .304 BABIP, .202 ISO

40 game Actual: .373/.424/.765 – 10.2% BB rate, 22.0% K rate, .490 wOBA, .400 BABIP, .392 ISO

81 game Actual: .314/.385/.635 - 10.6% BB rate, 20.7% K rate, .426 wOBA, .330 BABIP, .321 ISO

Allen Craig is officially a man child. "The Craigen" continues to tear up pitching at an astonishing rate, although not quite as astonishing as it once was. If Craig can even keep up his current pace all year - and stay healthy - then he will be one of the best players in the league. Even if he falls to earth a little bit more (towards my prediction), he'd have an "All-Star" caliber year.

Grade: C+

2B – Tyler Greene

Prediction: .248/.324/.391 - 8.4% BB rate, 25.2% K rate, .317 wOBA, .316 BABIP, .142 ISO

40 game Actual: .227/.301/.427 – 8.4% BB rate, 27.7% K rate, .325 wOBA, .286 BABIP, .200 ISO

81 game Actual: .229/.288/.382 - 7.0% BB rate, 27.5% K rate, .296 wOBA, .302 BABIP, .153 ISO

Tyler has slumped considerably since his 40-game output was recorded. It seems to me that a lot of that has to do with lack of "choosiness". By that I mean that he has not chosen well on pitches to swing at. It's not quite the same as patience, but close. His BB rate dropped 1.4% thus his OBP dropped .013 - despite a higher average and BABIP. When you're less "choosy", it's harder to drive the ball because you're not getting the pitches to drive. His SLG and ISO have also suffered badly, possibly because of this.

Grade: B

2B – Daniel Descalso

Prediction: .251/.305/.340 - 7.5% BB rate, 13.5% K rate, .288 wOBA, .280 BABIP, and .089 ISO

40 game Actual: .203/.304/.348 – 11.3% BB rate, 28.8% K rate, .289 wOBA, .289 BABIP, and .145 ISO

81 game Actual: .227/.318/.341 - 10.8% BB rate, 22.7% K rate, .288 wOBA, .289 BABIP, and .114 ISO

He keeps getting closer and closer to prediction perfection!

Grade: A

2B – Skip Schumaker

Prediction: .280/.338/.357 - 7.8% BB rate, 12.3% K rate, .313 wOBA, .314 BABIP, and .077 ISO

40 game Actual: .314/.375/.412 – 8.9% BB rate, 14.3% K rate, .339 wOBA, .372 BABIP, and .098 ISO

81 game Actual: .283/.353/.396 - 10.0% BB rate, 15.0% K rate, .324 wOBA, .337 BABIP, and .113 ISO

Skip's BABIP and BB rate are keeping him above where I had pegged him to be. He is also driving the ball much better than I had predicted, as he is still nearly .040 SLG and ISO higher than I had predicted. Good for him.

Grade: B

SS – Rafael Furcal

Prediction: .263/.328/.390 - 8.6% BB rate, 12.2% K rate, .318 wOBA, .282 BABIP, .127 ISO

40 game Actual: .351/.410/.474 – 9.1% BB rate, 10.3% K rate, .394 wOBA, .382 BABIP, .123 ISO

81 game Actual: .273/.341/.367 - 9.1% BB rate, 10.5% K rate, .315 wOBA, .296 BABIP, .093 ISO

I have no clue what happened to Rafael Furcal over the last 41 games, but he has been absolutely atrocious. Remember, the numbers above are for all 81 games, thus in the 41 games between the "40 game Actual" numbers and the "81 game Actual" numbers, he had to be much worse than the latter to get to those numbers. He has been hitting like Pete Kozma for a quarter of the season. However, that moves him VERY CLOSE to what I had predicted for the year, so yay me?

Grade: B+

3B – David Freese

Prediction: .308/.365/.472 - 7.3% BB rate, 20.8% K rate, .365 wOBA, .368 BABIP, and .164 ISO

40 game Actual: .266/.327/.482 – 7.8% BB rate, 22.9% K rate, .351 wOBA, .299 BABIP, and .216 ISO

81 game Actual: .286/.334/.479 - 6.6% BB rate, 24.8% K rate, .348 wOBA, .347 BABIP, .193 ISO

Freese has continued to do what he was doing over the first 40 games. He has traded some walks for a higher BABIP, leaving his OBP about where it was. His slugging has gotten slightly worse, but not to the point where his ISO is quite as low as I thought it would be for the year.

Grade: B (continued)

LF – Matt Holliday

Prediction: .309/.392/.539 - 10.9% BB rate, 16.0% K rate, .401 wOBA, .336 BABIP, and .230 ISO

40 game Actual: .269/.337/.488 – 9.6% BB rate, 19.1% K rate, .355 wOBA, .288 BABIP, and .219 ISO

81 game Actual: .313/.395/.523 - 11.8% BB rate, 17.3% K rate, .392 wOBA, .348 BABIP, .210 ISO

He's getting there, folks. Just wait for it. Matty is a notoriously slow starter and has just caught fire lately. Now that it has warmed up, watch those balls keep leaving the yard. That ISO is gonna creep upwards soon. (I know, more predictions...)

Grade: B+

CF – Jon Jay

Prediction: .281/.332/.400 - 6.7% BB rate, 14.7% K rate, .321 wOBA, .311 BABIP, and .119 ISO

40 game Actual: .343/.395/.438 – 6.0% BB rate, 9.4% K rate, .370 wOBA, .370 BABIP, and .095 ISO

81 game Actual: .326/.387/.411 - 7.0% BB rate, 12.7% K rate, .360 wOBA, .370 BABIP, .085 ISO

Jay spent a little more time on the DL, but is back now and still hitting. If everything goes like I predicted, most of his numbers should keep falling off a bit as his BABIP goes down, but he should start to slug a little better as his body regains it's health.

Grade: C+

RF – Carlos Beltran

Prediction: .295/.380/.505 - 12.0% BB rate, 14.4% K rate, .383 wOBA, .318 BABIP, and .210 ISO

40 game Actual: .298/.403/.634 – 13.6% BB rate, 21.4% K rate, .443 wOBA, .306 BABIP, and .336 ISO

81 game Actual: .304/.394/.565 - 12.7% BB rate, 17.4% K rate, .400 wOBA, .315 BABIP, and .261 ISO

Carlos is also falling back to earth a bit. His numbers are falling into line of what I predicted a bit more and more. It is my hope that his numbers stay a bit higher than where I had predicted. The groove he's gotten himself into shows me that he's capable of having a season slightly better than what I had though, much like his current line.

Grade: B

OF – Shane Robinson

Prediction: .242/.290/.363 - 6.0% BB rate, 10.0% K rate, .287 wOBA, .247 BABIP, and .121 ISO

40 game Actual: .259/.306/.345 – 6.5% BB rate, 22.6% K rate, .288 wOBA, .326 BABIP, and .086 ISO

81 game Actual: .252/.295/.341 - 6.1% BB rate, 18.9% K rate, .276 wOBA, .299 BABIP, .089 ISO

His minor league numbers would suggest that he will continue to walk at about this rate, while continuing to lower his K rate and adding a bit more power to the mix. We'll see if the hot weather contributes to his bat being a bit more lively, even if it doesn't mean an increased BABIP or OBP.

Grade: B+

As far as pitchers go, I will list them by IP/GS, ERA, WHIP, H/9, K:BB, K/9, BB/9, HR/9, FIP

SP – Adam Wainwright

Prediction: 6.429 IP/GS, 2.60 ERA, 1.122 WHIP, 7.8 H/9, 3.43 K:BB, 8.1 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9, 3.11 FIP

40 game Actual: 5.458 IP/GS, 5.77 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 10.51 H/9, 2.50 K:BB, 8.24 K/9, 3.30 BB/9, 1.44 HR/9, 4.39 FIP

81 game Actual: 6.042 IP/GS, 4.75 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 9.50 H/9, 3.25 K:BB, 8.47 K/9, 2.61 BB/9, 0.93 HR/9, 3.46 FIP

Oh goodness, it's nice to see you again, Wagonmaker (Wainwright...get it?).

Grade: C+ (we're getting there)

SP – Jaime Garcia

Prediction: 6.061 IP/GS, 3.29 ERA, 1.325 WHIP, 9.1 H/9, 2.60 K:BB, 7.4 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.39 FIP

40 game Actual: 6.417 IP/GS, 3.68 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 10.52 H/9, 2.57 K:BB, 6.31 K/9, 2.45 BB/9, 0.18 HR/9, 2.64 FIP

81 game Actual: 6.030 IP/GS, 4.48 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 10.58 H/9, 2.68 K:BB, 6.92 K/9, 2.58 BB/9, 0.27 HR/9, 2.78 FIP

Jaime threw only a couple of more games before going down with an injury. I'll keep my grade as is and mention that it might be a bit "incomplete."

Grade: C+

SP – Kyle Lohse

Prediction: 6.100 IP/GS, 4.23 ERA, 1.328 WHIP, 9.5 H/9, 2.27 K:BB, 5.5 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9, 4.05 FIP

40 game Actual: 6.25 IP/GS, 2.70 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 8.1 H/9, 4.00 K:BB, 5.76 K/9, 1.44 BB/9, 0.72 HR/9, 3.33 FIP

81 game Actual: 6.43 IP/GS, 2.80 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 8.48 H/9, 3.32 K:BB, 5.19 K/9, 1.56 BB/9, 0.73 HR/9, 3.71 FIP

Kyle Lohse is continuing to pitch like the #2 pitcher everyone always thought he could be. He has done this in two of his four seasons with the Cardinals, looking to make it 3 out of 5 seasons with the Cardinals. I don’ t mind if he does, even if it screws up my predictions!

Grade: C

SP - Jake Westbrook

Prediction: 5.654 IP/GS, 4.41 ERA, 1.435 WHIP, 9.6 H/9, 1.61 K:BB, 5.3 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.25 FIP

40 game Actual: 6.542 IP/GS, 2.58 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 8.77 H/9, 2.62 K:BB, 5.85 K/9, 2.24 BB/9, 0.52 HR/9, 3.22 FIP

81 game Actual: 6.188 IP/GS, 3.91 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 9.73 H/9, 2.50 K:BB, 5.91 K/9, 2.36 BB/9, 0.73 HR/9, 3.65 FIP

So Westy's IP/GS, ERA, WHIP, H/9, and HR/9 are all regressing to my prediction, however his strikeout numbers are better than the first 40 games and his BB rate and K:BB have stayed similar. His FIP is regressing a bit, but is still fabulous. Go Westy!

Grade: B-

SP – Lance Lynn

Prediction: 5.000 IP/GS, 3.67 ERA, 1.328 WHIP, 8.7 H/9, 2.47 K:BB, 8.0 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9, 3.52 FIP

40 game Actual: 6.333 IP/GS, 2.31 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 6.22 H/9, 3.06 K:BB, 8.70 K/9, 2.84 BB/9, 0.53 HR/9, 2.81 FIP

81 game Actual: 6.063 IP/GS, 3.62 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 8.07 H/9, 2.88 K:BB, 9.09 K/9, 3.15 BB/9, 0.84 HR/9, 3.43 FIP

WE HAVE A WINNER! I MAY JUST QUIT NOW!

Grade: A++++++

SP - Joe Kelly

Not predicted

Grade: N/A

RP – Mitchell Boggs

Prediction: 3.80 ERA, 1.408 WHIP, 9.1 H/9, 2.00 K:BB, 7.1 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.70 FIP

40 game Actual: 2.70 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 8.10 H/9, 2.71 K:BB, 10.26 K/9, 3.78 BB/9, 0.00 HR/9, 2.13 FIP

81 game Actual: 2.02 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 7.32 H/9, 3.00 K:BB, 6.81 K/9, 2.27 BB/9, 0.50 HR/9, 3.21 FIP

Boggs continues to look like a shutdown MLB reliever this year. He has improved his WHIP and K:BB, while keeping his FIP at a respectable rate. Notice that he was able to improve his K:BB, even whilst dramatically dropping his K/9, by nearly 1/3. That shows how much "pitching" he's doing this year instead of "throwing."

Grade: C

RP – Fernando Salas

Prediction: 2.92 ERA, 1.065 WHIP, 6.8 H/9, 3.38 K:BB, 9.5 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.19 FIP

40 game Actual: 5.52 ERA, 1.91 WHIP, 11.66 H/9, 2.22 K:BB, 12.27 K/9, 5.52 BB/9, 0.61 HR/9, 2.97 FIP

81 game Actual: 5.60 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, 10.54 H/9, 1.88 K:BB, 9.88 K/9, 5.27 BB/9, 0.66 HR/9, 3.58 FIP

Fernando's numbers are getting better, like I said they would. However, he's still not getting results and that's what the big leagues are all about. Statisticians can guess all they want about how a pitcher SHOULD do based on peripherals - the peripherals suggest to just leave him in the pen because his results WILL balance out - but at some point, you have to retire hitters without blowing games and giving up a ton of runs.

Grade: D-

RP – Jason Motte

Prediction: 2.63 ERA, 1.077 WHIP, 7.1 H/9, 3.32 K:BB, 8.7 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9, 2.92 FIP

40 game Actual: 2.30 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 5.74 H/9, 4.50 K:BB, 10.34 K/9, 2.30 BB/9, 1.15 HR/9, 3.10 FIP

81 game Actual: 3.25 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 5.75 H/9, 3.00 K:BB, 9.00 K/9, 3.00 BB/9, 1.25 HR/9, 3.96 FIP

Last time I wrote: "Just by regressing Motte’s HR/9 rate, it takes his FIP down 0.35 points!" Well, his HR/9 has gotten worse and his FIP has suffered for it. You know what else hurts? His K:BB has dropped by 1/3, mostly due to a wild streak that has driven up his BB/9. He'll come back around on his walks and homers, but probably give up a few more hits in the process.

Grade: B-

RP – Eduardo Sanchez

Prediction: 2.55 ERA, 1.117 WHIP, 6.0 H/9, 2.74 K:BB, 11.1 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, 0.5 HR/9, 2.71 FIP

81 game Actual: 6.60 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 6.60 H/9, 1.00 K:BB, 7.80 K/9, 7.80 BB/9, 1.20 HR/9, 5.87 FIP

Eduardo has looked horribly inconsistent and wild this year. He's Salas, with less innings pitched and having been asked to intentionally walk 4 people in

Grade: F

RP - Victor Marte

Not predicted

Grade: N/A

RP – Marc Rzepczynski

Prediction: 3.92 ERA, 1.387 WHIP, 8.4 H/9, 2.14 K:BB, 8.7 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9, 3.65 FIP

40 game Actual: 2.45 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 6.14 H/9, 3.00 K:BB, 5.52 K/9, 1.84 BB/9, 1.23 HR/9, 4.13 FIP

81 game Actual: 5.86 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 11.06 H/9, 2.00 K:BB, 5.86 K/9, 2.93 BB/9, 1.95 HR/9, 5.56 FIP

So Scrabble has gotten quite unlucky. His BB/9 have regressed, although not horribly badly. His H/9 and HR/9 have gotten wildly out of control, while his K/9 are staying way down. This has all happened despite his fastball speed slightly increasing and his slider and changeup speeds staying constant. The only thing I can see is that he is throwing has fastball much more often - but that could be due to him facing more RHP than he did under TLR.

Grade: D+

RP – Kyle McClellan

Prediction: 3.05 ERA, 1.246 WHIP, 7.9 H/9, 1.96 K:BB, 6.5 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.04 FIP

40 game Actual: 5.30 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 10.51 H/9, 2.50 K:BB, 8.24 K/9, 3.30 BB/9, 1.44 HR/9, 4.39 FIP

Injured for second quarter of season.

Grade: Incomplete

RP - Sam Freeman

Prediction: 3.50 ERA, 1.611 WHIP, 9.0 H/9, 1.18 K:BB, 6.5 K/9, 5.5 BB/9, 1.0 HR/9, 5.01 FIP

81 game Actual: 6.00 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 7.5 H/9, 1.43 K:BB, 7.50 K/9, 5.25 BB/9, 1.50 HR/9, 5.57 FIP

Again with the damn homers. If you regress his HR down by a third, his numbers look better than what I had predicted - all the way across the board.

Grade: A-

RP - Maikel Cleto

Prediction: 5.00 ERA, 1.611 WHIP, 10.0 H/9, 1.67 K:BB, 7.5 K/9, 4.5 BB/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.46 FIP

81 game Actual: 5.14 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 14.14 H/9, 11.00 K:BB, 14.14 K/9, 1.29 BB/9, 3.86 HR/9, 6.35 FIP

Look at that HR rate. WOW. I've never seen one that high. It's higher than Romero's before he was cut. Cleto is getting hit hard when people touch the ball...like, every. time. they. touch. the. ball. They aren't touching it much, though. That's the good news.

Grade: incomplete, 7 IP

Well, that's my look at the half-way point. I've done a lot better overall. The pitching needs to regress soon. They're due for a month of no home runs or so. Sheesh.

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