So we're a quarter of the way through the 2012 season, I am going to take a look at how well stlfan's predictions have gone thus far.
C - Yadier Molina
Prediction: .289/.343/.411 - 7.4% BB rate, 8.8% K rate, .332 wOBA, .298 BABIP, and .122 ISO
Actual: .301/.352/.511 - 6.1% BB rate, 9.5% K rate, .379 wOBA, .304 BABIP, and .211 ISO
Yadi's walk and strikeout rates are not as good as I had predicted they would be, but his power has more than made up for those rates being slightly lower/higher. He's not doing it by getting terribly lucky, either - as shown by my BABIP prediction being off by only 6 thousandths. His ISO and SLG are simply far better than I would have ever imagined.
My Grade: B-
C - Tony Cruz
Prediction: .217/.269/.311 - 6.3% BB rate, 20.0% K rate, .259 wOBA, .262 BABIP, and .093 ISO
Actual: .133/.133/.167 - 0.0% BB rate, 20.0% K rate, .131 wOBA, .167 BABIP, and .033 ISO
Tony Cruz only has 30 plate appearances to this point. His numbers are flat out atrocious, but 30 PAs is simply to small a sample size to care at this point.
1B - Lance Berkman
Prediction: .280/.396/.499 - 16.0% BB rate, 16.5% K rate, .390 wOBA, .301 BABIP, and .219 ISO
Actual: .333/.429/.571 - 12.2% BB rate, 22.0% K rate, .490 wOBA, .400 BABIP, .392
All that was said about the previous two guys combined applies here. Like Yadi, Lance's BB and K rates are worse than predicted but his power numbers are incredibly inflated. Like Cruz, his sample size is simply too small to know what's going on this year for Lance. He's been hurt and thus has only 49 PAs to his name. He's also getting quite a bit lucky on BABIP.
1B - Matt Carpenter
Prediction: .240/.325/.349 - 10.5% BB rate, 16.5% K rate, .305 wOBA, .277 BABIP, .109 ISO
Actual: .283/.348/.505 - 8.9% BB rate, 21.4% K rate, .362 wOBA, .338 BABIP, .222 ISO
Thank Goodness I was way off on MCarp's predictions - on the low end - as Berkman has had less than 50 PAs at the quarter pole. I predicted 200 PAs for the year for MCarp and he's already at 112 and is earning (not simply receiving) more. I'm glad Jeff Luhnow left our minor leagues so stocked when he departed for Houston. (I don't think this is the last time I'll say that today or otherwise.)
1B/OF - Allen Craig
Prediction: .282/.338/.483 - 7.5% BB rate, 17.0% K rate, .352 wOBA, .304 BABIP, .202 ISO
Actual: .373/.424/.765 - 10.2% BB rate, 22.0% K rate, .490 wOBA, .400 BABIP, .392 ISO
Allen Craig only has 59 PAs to his name in 2012. He has torn the cover off the ball to a ridiculous tune of nearly 1 WAR in 60 PAs - that would put him at a nearly 10 WAR pace over 600 PAs throughout the year. With Craig going on the DL for a second time already this season:
2B - Tyler Greene
Prediction: .248/.324/.391 - 8.4% BB rate, 25.2% K rate, .317 wOBA, .316 BABIP, .142 ISO
Actual: .227/.301/.427 - 8.4% BB rate, 27.7% K rate, .325 wOBA, .286 BABIP, .200 ISO
Good news and bad news here. The bad news, TG's slash line stats look a little more Mark Reynolds-ian than I thought they would. However, my BB and K rate numbers, along with wOBA numbers, look spot on. The good news is that TG is getting an incredible ISO and slightly better numbers than I thought with a BABIP 10% lower than I thought. If his BABIP can get up to my predicted numbers, we could very well see a Rickie Weeks' type line out of TG this year - albeit with worse defense.
2B - Daniel Descalso
Prediction: .251/.305/.340 - 7.5% BB rate, 13.5% K rate, .288 wOBA, .280 BABIP, and .089 ISO
Actual: .203/.304/.348 - 11.3% BB rate, 28.8% K rate, .289 wOBA, .289 BABIP, and .145 ISO
Besides Descalso's batting average and BB/K rates being way off, I have him pegged. Because his average is so low, to get his SLG to where it needed to be, his ISO is a bit higher. I would expect Descalso to bloop in a few more singles and walk less - while not striking out as much the rest of the year.
2B - Skip Schumaker
Prediction: .280/.338/.357 - 7.8% BB rate, 12.3% K rate, .313 wOBA, .314 BABIP, and .077 ISO
Actual: .314/.375/.412 - 8.9% BB rate, 14.3% K rate, .339 wOBA, .372 BABIP, and .098 ISO
Skip has performed well better than I had thought he would, but a regression in BABIP leads his numbers EXACLTY into my range. I'll say I have it pegged OTHER THAN BABIP.
SS - Rafael Furcal
Prediction: .263/.328/.390 - 8.6% BB rate, 12.2% K rate, .318 wOBA, .282 BABIP, .127 ISO
Actual: .351/.410/.474 - 9.1% BB rate, 10.3% K rate, .394 wOBA, .382 BABIP, .123 ISO
So Furcal's ISO is right in line with what I predicted, but nearly everything else is ridiculously better than what I thought. Go Raffy!
3B - David Freese
Prediction: .308/.365/.472 - 7.3% BB rate, 20.8% K rate, .365 wOBA, .368 BABIP, and .164 ISO
Actual: .266/.327/.482 - 7.8% BB rate, 22.9% K rate, .351 wOBA, .299 BABIP, and .216 ISO
Freese's ISO is a bit higher than what I would have predicted. If more singles were to fall in (thus the much lower BABIP), his ISO would even out and his other numbers would normalize to my predictions. I think I hit Freese on the head pretty well.
LF - Matt Holliday
Prediction: .309/.392/.539 - 10.9% BB rate, 16.0% K rate, .401 wOBA, .336 BABIP, and .230 ISO
Actual: .269/.337/.488 - 9.6% BB rate, 19.1% K rate, .355 wOBA, .288 BABIP, and .219 ISO
Holliday has been coming on quite well as of late. He would be at my approximate numbers with a Holliday-normalized BABIP. With Albert Pujols' struggles - amongst others at this age bracket - this could be a cause for concern. It could also be an early season slump - something we had seen out of Holliday before in his career.
CF - Jon Jay
Prediction: .281/.332/.400 - 6.7% BB rate, 14.7% K rate, .321 wOBA, .311 BABIP, and .119 ISO
Actual: .343/.395/.438 - 6.0% BB rate, 9.4% K rate, .370 wOBA, .370 BABIP, and .095 ISO
Jay is another of the supremely overachieving Cardinals early in the year - that has also had injuries and is now on the DL. We have way too many of those.
RF - Carlos Beltran
Prediction: .295/.380/.505 - 12.0% BB rate, 14.4% K rate, .383 wOBA, .318 BABIP, and .210 ISO
Actual: .298/.403/.634 - 13.6% BB rate, 21.4% K rate, .443 wOBA, .306 BABIP, and .336 ISO
Carlos Beltran is murdering the ball right now. His K rate is much higher than I thought it would be. You would think that his BABIP would be about .450 with that K rate and those numbers, but it is actually LOWER than I thought it would be. With an improved K rate and improved BABIP, Beltran's already-MVP level numbers could actually improve before they get worse! GEEZ!
OF - Shane Robinson
Prediction: .242/.290/.363 - 6.0% BB rate, 10.0% K rate, .287 wOBA, .247 BABIP, and .121 ISO
Actual: .259/.306/.345 - 6.5% BB rate, 22.6% K rate, .288 wOBA, .326 BABIP, and .086 ISO
Shane has gotten on base better than I thought, but has struck out more and slugged better. I'll call it a wash. Pretty similar, despite an incredible BABIP - most likely due to a higher K rate.
OF - Erik Komatsu
Only 21 PAs before losing his job.
As far as pitchers go, I will list them by IP/GS, ERA, WHIP, H/9, K:BB, K/9, BB/9, HR/9, FIP
SP - Adam Wainwright
Prediction: 6.429 IP/GS, 2.60 ERA, 1.122 WHIP, 7.8 H/9, 3.43 K:BB, 8.1 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9, 3.11 FIP
Actual: 5.458 IP/GS, 5.77 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 10.51 H/9, 2.50 K:BB, 8.24 K/9, 3.30 BB/9, 1.44 HR/9, 4.39 FIP
Waino has not bounced back from Tommy John quite how well I would have liked to see. He is striking out people at a higher rate than I thought he would and has gotten very unlucky in the HR category - leading to a much worse ERA and FIP than he should have.
SP - Chris Carpenter
Broken, no pitches thrown.
SP - Jaime Garcia
Prediction: 6.061 IP/GS, 3.29 ERA, 1.325 WHIP, 9.1 H/9, 2.60 K:BB, 7.4 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.39 FIP
Actual: 6.417 IP/GS, 3.68 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 10.52 H/9, 2.57 K:BB, 6.31 K/9, 2.45 BB/9, 0.18 HR/9, 2.64 FIP
Jaime Garcia has given up an exorbitant number of hits this year. He is also not striking out as many people. Despite giving up so many hits, he has given up very few homers, keeping his ERA and FIP lower than they could otherwise be.
SP - Kyle Lohse
Prediction: 6.100 IP/GS, 4.23 ERA, 1.328 WHIP, 9.5 H/9, 2.27 K:BB, 5.5 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9, 4.05 FIP
Actual: 6.25 IP/GS, 2.70 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 8.1 H/9, 4.00 K:BB, 5.76 K/9, 1.44 BB/9, 0.72 HR/9, 3.33 FIP
Kyle Lohse is pitching like the #2/#3 pitcher everyone always thought he could be. He has done this in two of his four seasons with the Cardinals, looking to make it 3 out of 5 seasons with the Cardinals. I don' t mind if he does, even if it screws up my predictions!
SP - Jake Westbrook
Prediction: 5.654 IP/GS, 4.41 ERA, 1.435 WHIP, 9.6 H/9, 1.61 K:BB, 5.3 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.25 FIP
Actual: 6.542 IP/GS, 2.58 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 8.77 H/9, 2.62 K:BB, 5.85 K/9, 2.24 BB/9, 0.52 HR/9, 3.22 FIP
Westbrook's IP/GS shows exactly how well he's been doing this year - to average over an inning more per game than I had thought he would earn. Wow. Good for you Westy. All of the numbers are slightly better than I thought they would be. He is also throwing like a #3 starter, which is needed with the top three men either not pitching or pitching poorly!
SP - Lance Lynn
Prediction: 5.000 IP/GS, 3.67 ERA, 1.328 WHIP, 8.7 H/9, 2.47 K:BB, 8.0 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9, 3.52 FIP
Actual: 6.333 IP/GS, 2.31 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 6.22 H/9, 3.06 K:BB, 8.70 K/9, 2.84 BB/9, 0.53 HR/9, 2.81 FIP
Damn. These numbers are awfully similar to the numbers I had Lynn at as a reliever only. When I found out Carpenter was hurt and added 20 starts to Lynn's totals, I dropped his numbers significantly. I'm gonna call this a draw and give myself:
RP - Mitchell Boggs
Prediction: 3.80 ERA, 1.408 WHIP, 9.1 H/9, 2.00 K:BB, 7.1 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.70 FIP
Actual: 2.70 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 8.10 H/9, 2.71 K:BB, 10.26 K/9, 3.78 BB/9, 0.00 HR/9, 2.13 FIP
So Boggs has been well better than I predicted. I am glad Mitch is putting it together. I thought he was a lot better than he had shown the previous few years, just had nothing to hang that hat on.
RP - Brandon Dickson
1 inning thrown
RP - Fernando Salas
Prediction: 2.92 ERA, 1.065 WHIP, 6.8 H/9, 3.38 K:BB, 9.5 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.19 FIP
Actual: 5.52 ERA, 1.91 WHIP, 11.66 H/9, 2.22 K:BB, 12.27 K/9, 5.52 BB/9, 0.61 HR/9, 2.97 FIP
Fernando Salas has turned into a very hittable (okay, smashable) version of Eduardo Sanchez when he doesn't have his control. UGH. His FIP is much better than the rest of his numbers because of a low HR rate and VERY high K rate. Don't let if fool you, Fernando is lost right now. He'll get better.
RP - Jason Motte
Prediction: 2.63 ERA, 1.077 WHIP, 7.1 H/9, 3.32 K:BB, 8.7 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9, 2.92 FIP
Actual: 2.30 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 5.74 H/9, 4.50 K:BB, 10.34 K/9, 2.30 BB/9, 1.15 HR/9, 3.10 FIP
Just by regressing Motte's HR/9 rate, it takes his FIP down 0.35 points! Take away his unluckiness and Motte becomes quite possibly the best (single season) Cardinals' reliever in the last decade or more. He has been on fire this year, continuing what he did in the post-season last year. Applesauce returns!
RP - Eduardo Sanchez
2 2/3 IP
RP - Victor Marte
RP - Marc Rzepczynski
Prediction: 3.92 ERA, 1.387 WHIP, 8.4 H/9, 2.14 K:BB, 8.7 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9, 3.65 FIP
Actual: 2.45 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 6.14 H/9, 3.00 K:BB, 5.52 K/9, 1.84 BB/9, 1.23 HR/9, 4.13 FIP
Scrabble's FIP drops 0.75 points if you regress his home run rate...wowzers. He has struck out and walked significantly less people than I had predicted. He has simply been much better than I would have ever thought. It's been pretty incredible.
RP - Kyle McClellan
Prediction: 3.05 ERA, 1.246 WHIP, 7.9 H/9, 1.96 K:BB, 6.5 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.04 FIP
Actual: 5.30 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 10.51 H/9, 2.50 K:BB, 8.24 K/9, 3.30 BB/9, 1.44 HR/9, 4.39 FIP
Again with the ridiculous homer rate; KMac's FIP drops by over 1 whole point if you regress his HR rate to a normal range. Other than that, he has still been quite hittable in his return to the bullpen. It's been a disappointing start to the season, culminated by a recent trip to the DL.
RP - JC Romero
So, I did much better on the hitters than on the pitchers. It seems to go that way quite often. I have yet to hone in my skills in pitcher performance. Go figure, there is less data on it than hitters, as far as I can tell - it at least seems like an imprecise science. Keep winning the NL Central, Cards!