FanPost

Saturday Game Simulation, Cubs vs Cardinals

Here is the simulation output of today's game. The game was simulated 100K times with today's actual lineups. The simulator has the Cardinals winning this game 61.04% of the time with the Cubs averaging 3.06 runs per game and the Cardinals 3.79. As always, the win expectancy results of my simulations can be found here.

Hitters
Name AB Hits H1 H2 H3 HR RBI BB SO wOBA
David DeJesus 4.286 1.157 0.789 0.238 0.032 0.099 0.323 0.403 0.8 0.328
Darwin Barney 4.321 1.122 0.852 0.214 0.025 0.03 0.268 0.183 0.674 0.28
Starlin Castro 4.259 1.234 0.949 0.209 0.026 0.05 0.33 0.193 0.676 0.312
Alfonso Soriano 4.129 0.991 0.597 0.244 0.008 0.142 0.491 0.236 1.003 0.298
Ian Stewart 3.996 0.969 0.647 0.24 0.015 0.067 0.375 0.293 0.826 0.29
Bryan LaHair 3.823 1.014 0.67 0.234 0.012 0.098 0.419 0.348 0.734 0.325
Geovany Soto 3.738 0.845 0.549 0.205 0.002 0.088 0.347 0.302 1.03 0.283
Marlon Byrd 3.503 0.937 0.666 0.197 0.011 0.062 0.311 0.424 0.662 0.328
Pitchers Spot 3.708 0.474 0.387 0.074 0.003 0.01 0.146 0.132 1.61 0.146
Name AB Hits H1 H2 H3 HR RBI BB SO wOBA
Rafael Furcal 4.219 1.154 0.783 0.274 0.026 0.071 0.303 0.342 0.587 0.322
Jon Jay 4.142 1.241 0.846 0.265 0.042 0.088 0.425 0.301 0.641 0.347
Matt Holliday 3.957 1.174 0.707 0.293 0.004 0.17 0.575 0.404 0.806 0.373
Carlos Beltran 3.809 1.122 0.686 0.27 0.043 0.122 0.531 0.468 0.645 0.373
David Freese 3.921 1.12 0.784 0.232 0.012 0.092 0.499 0.246 0.826 0.329
Yadier Molina 3.787 1.092 0.771 0.225 0.006 0.089 0.458 0.251 0.455 0.331
Matt Carpenter 3.657 0.95 0.641 0.202 0.008 0.098 0.414 0.272 0.683 0.313
Daniel Descalso 3.525 0.959 0.628 0.236 0.047 0.047 0.344 0.321 0.599 0.326
Pitchers Spot 3.589 0.486 0.393 0.077 0.004 0.012 0.162 0.139 1.515 0.155


Pitchers
Name IP SO BB Hits HR PC FIP
Chris Volstad 6.167 4.513 1.755 6.709 0.574 96.873 3.799
Carlos Marmol 0.4 0.532 0.209 0.296 0.016 6.711 2.631
Kerry Wood 0.404 0.428 0.15 0.371 0.029 6.522 3.122
Rafael Dolis 0.592 0.449 0.194 0.629 0.049 9.404 3.728
James Russell 0.271 0.186 0.078 0.304 0.035 4.273 4.382
Randy Wells 0.202 0.129 0.068 0.23 0.023 3.226 4.383
Manuel Corpas 0.463 0.348 0.187 0.497 0.043 7.546 4.112
Lendy Castillo 0.239 0.17 0.104 0.262 0.022 3.936 4.268
Name IP SO BB Hits HR PC FIP
Lance Lynn 6.634 5.311 1.629 6.432 0.465 101.055 3.246
Jason Motte 0.473 0.559 0.102 0.36 0.018 7.108 1.967
Fernando Salas 0.409 0.458 0.106 0.336 0.029 6.279 2.651
Marc Rzepczynski 0.586 0.657 0.221 0.47 0.032 9.312 2.807
Kyle McClellan 0.244 0.177 0.072 0.242 0.022 3.762 3.821
J.C. Romero 0.129 0.123 0.068 0.114 0.008 2.151 3.684
Victor Marte 0.534 0.456 0.221 0.519 0.056 8.645 4.088
Mitchell Boggs 0.297 0.274 0.096 0.27 0.018 4.638 3.094


Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores
Cubs Cardinals #
2 3 4938
1 2 4926
3 4 3891
0 1 3073
3 2 2999
1 3 2998
2 1 2957
0 2 2548
2 4 2489
1 4 2316
4 5 2288
4 3 2212
0 3 2189
3 1 2188
4 2 1967
2 5 1920
1 0 1897
3 5 1779
1 5 1658
0 4 1641
2 0 1634
4 1 1536
5 3 1384
5 4 1358
5 2 1348
5 6 1330
0 5 1320
3 0 1308
1 6 1233
2 6 1175
3 6 1157
5 1 1014
0 6 988
4 6 969
6 3 932
4 0 925
2 7 902
6 2 887
1 7 868
6 5 808
6 4 770
3 7 759
6 1 691
4 7 669
5 0 660
6 7 648
0 7 616
2 8 588
7 3 587
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