FanPost

Saturday Game Simulation, Cubs vs Cardinals

Here is the simulation output of today's game. The game was simulated 100K times with today's actual lineups. The simulator has the Cardinals winning this game 61.04% of the time with the Cubs averaging 3.06 runs per game and the Cardinals 3.79. As always, the win expectancy results of my simulations can be found here.

Hitters
NameABHitsH1H2H3HRRBIBBSOwOBA
David DeJesus4.2861.1570.7890.2380.0320.0990.3230.4030.80.328
Darwin Barney4.3211.1220.8520.2140.0250.030.2680.1830.6740.28
Starlin Castro4.2591.2340.9490.2090.0260.050.330.1930.6760.312
Alfonso Soriano4.1290.9910.5970.2440.0080.1420.4910.2361.0030.298
Ian Stewart3.9960.9690.6470.240.0150.0670.3750.2930.8260.29
Bryan LaHair3.8231.0140.670.2340.0120.0980.4190.3480.7340.325
Geovany Soto3.7380.8450.5490.2050.0020.0880.3470.3021.030.283
Marlon Byrd3.5030.9370.6660.1970.0110.0620.3110.4240.6620.328
Pitchers Spot3.7080.4740.3870.0740.0030.010.1460.1321.610.146
NameABHitsH1H2H3HRRBIBBSOwOBA
Rafael Furcal4.2191.1540.7830.2740.0260.0710.3030.3420.5870.322
Jon Jay4.1421.2410.8460.2650.0420.0880.4250.3010.6410.347
Matt Holliday3.9571.1740.7070.2930.0040.170.5750.4040.8060.373
Carlos Beltran3.8091.1220.6860.270.0430.1220.5310.4680.6450.373
David Freese3.9211.120.7840.2320.0120.0920.4990.2460.8260.329
Yadier Molina3.7871.0920.7710.2250.0060.0890.4580.2510.4550.331
Matt Carpenter3.6570.950.6410.2020.0080.0980.4140.2720.6830.313
Daniel Descalso3.5250.9590.6280.2360.0470.0470.3440.3210.5990.326
Pitchers Spot3.5890.4860.3930.0770.0040.0120.1620.1391.5150.155


Pitchers
NameIPSOBBHitsHRPCFIP
Chris Volstad6.1674.5131.7556.7090.57496.8733.799
Carlos Marmol0.40.5320.2090.2960.0166.7112.631
Kerry Wood0.4040.4280.150.3710.0296.5223.122
Rafael Dolis0.5920.4490.1940.6290.0499.4043.728
James Russell0.2710.1860.0780.3040.0354.2734.382
Randy Wells0.2020.1290.0680.230.0233.2264.383
Manuel Corpas0.4630.3480.1870.4970.0437.5464.112
Lendy Castillo0.2390.170.1040.2620.0223.9364.268
NameIPSOBBHitsHRPCFIP
Lance Lynn6.6345.3111.6296.4320.465101.0553.246
Jason Motte0.4730.5590.1020.360.0187.1081.967
Fernando Salas0.4090.4580.1060.3360.0296.2792.651
Marc Rzepczynski0.5860.6570.2210.470.0329.3122.807
Kyle McClellan0.2440.1770.0720.2420.0223.7623.821
J.C. Romero0.1290.1230.0680.1140.0082.1513.684
Victor Marte0.5340.4560.2210.5190.0568.6454.088
Mitchell Boggs0.2970.2740.0960.270.0184.6383.094


Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores
CubsCardinals#
234938
124926
343891
013073
322999
132998
212957
022548
242489
142316
452288
432212
032189
312188
421967
251920
101897
351779
151658
041641
201634
411536
531384
541358
521348
561330
051320
301308
161233
261175
361157
511014
06988
46969
63932
40925
27902
62887
17868
65808
64770
37759
61691
47669
50660
67648
07616
28588
73587
X
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