FanPost

Recent History and the Cardinals Postseason Chances

I always try to beat optimistic about the Cardinals' chances in the preseason. I really do. But, alas, perhaps it is just my disposition to be a wee-bit too critical about my dearly beloved St. Louis Cardinals. Of course, my intestinal instinct sometimes proves to be ill-founded. Last year I was down on the Cardinals big time, particularly after the Pujols contract debacle and the Wainwright elbow injury. Yet, destiny had other things in store for the Cards last year, and thus it was all the more exciting for me to see the Cardinals wildly out perform my expectations.

This year, similar feelings are bubbling in my gut -- except, they are even stronger this time around. Does this mean I will be even more wrong than last year? Or will the Cardinals struggle and allow (begrudgingly) the foresight of my critical eye to prevail? I did some research to try and make sense of this. Join me after the jump.

Before I begin, lets address this wild off-season transformation. Three Hall of Famers are gone: Pujols, La Russa, and Duncan (who really should be a Hall of Famer and is indeed already one in the book of any half-credible baseball fan). In their stead, we have rookie manager Mike Matheny -- whom I will be rooting for immensely -- and Carlos Beltran, the soon-to-be 35 year-old right fielder who has missed 40% of his respective teams' games the last three years because of injury. Lance Berkman will be playing first base, which is a downgrade both defensively and offensively. Berkman was phenomenal last season, but his power declined in the second half and his lofty .301 average was sustained by an unsustainable .315 BAbip. Matt Holliday is left to be the team's top hitter. We all know can he hit, but will he stay healthy? And is he configured to be The Man, like Albert was? David "Deep" Freese seems to be in line for a career year, but we all must remember he has never held up for a full 162 games. I worry that last year's offensive synergy will escape the Cards this year, not in the least because the man in the middle has departed for Los Angeles' B Team.

Of course, inconsistent offense could be countered by authoritative pitching. Yet, already the pitching staff is prompting questions. Chris Carpenter is already limited by a shady neck injury, Adam Wainwright is returning from Tommy John, and 25 year-old Jaime Garcia increased his innings load by 35% last year, which is a significant increase for any pitcher let alone a young one. The untested -- yet encouraging -- Lance Lynn will be thrown into a prominent role, and Jake Westbrook is still one of our main men. The bullpen could be awesome -- especially if Eduardo Sanchez stays healthy and harnesses his ability -- or the young bullpen that struggled most of the year and blew 24 saves (ok, 20 discarding Ryan Franklin) could return.

I guess the point is that there is a wild spectrum of outcomes for this season, wider than for any Cardinals season in recent memory. So I tried to figure out how teams in the Cardinals position -- a team that made the World Series as a Wild Card and/or with the 3rd or 4th best record among league playoff entrants -- fared the ensuing season.

In the Wild Card era, there have been 16 such teams. 9 of the 16 teams missed the playoffs the following season. The average win-total decline was 6.625 wins, though admittedly six teams did win more games the year after winning the pennant. Exclusively among the 9 Wild Card teams on the list, 7 missed the playoffs the next year. The two that didn't -- the 2002 Giants and the 2004 Red Sox -- did nothing to alter the composition of their core following their pennant season. Among these 9 Wild Card teams, the average win-total decline was 12 games, and only one of these teams -- the 2002 Bondsian Giants -- accrued more wins after winning the pennant.

The sample size is admittedly minuscule. Nonetheless, the recent history does suggest a Cardinals drop-off. Further, my eyes and ears sense a team with a great number of question marks. I've read a lot of posts on this site and others talking glowingly about the prospects of an NL Central championship and a win-total in the low 90s. I'm inclined to reign in this bravado and talk realistically about the prospect that our Vegas-pegged over-under number (I've seen anywhere between 83 and 87, and people are pouncing on the over) may hold some merit. Don't call me a Negative Nancy or a Pessimistic Paul. Just call me a Realistic Rob (or an Informed Isaiah, or whatever).

I'm taking the Brewers to win the division, but I would love to (yet again) be proved wrong. Go Cards!