Thursday Notes: The left-handed backup outfielder bubble
by DanUpBaby on Mar 1, 2012 8:04 AM EST
in St. Louis Cardinals News
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The Cardinals move inexorably toward The Real Spring Training, where instead of hearing about players who are considering playing different positions we hear about them actually playing different positions, or just not playing. Mark Hamilton in the outfield! Alex Cora all over the place! It's happening.
Bubble notes:
- This is probably not the notice I'd want to get if I were a Rule 5 draft pick struggling to get by on a team that's seemed weirdly indifferent to me from the moment I was selected. "... We had some good reports on some things he did in the past, and we'll certainly take a look." "Well, we have your résumé, and, you know, we'll call you, if—." Erik Komatsu isn't a great fit for the 2012 Cardinals, but he's not competing with any great fits for the Cardinals. He's Adron Chambers, only if they go north with him they might end up with two Adron Chamberses.
- The longest-odds position change of the Spring: Mark Hamilton going to the outfield, secure in his conviction that what the Cardinals need most is a left-handed hitting reserve outfielder.
- The second base competition could be resolved early, but won't necessarily be. Right now this seems more like an inertial thing than a tense showdown—with Skip Schumaker apparently locked in as a very odd utility man, this comes down to how much playing time Tyler Greene will steal from Daniel Descalso out of the wide side of a platoon-by-default, or whether both of them will struggle enough that Skip Schumaker suddenly seems like a palatable option.
- Though at that point I wonder where the Cardinals would find another left-handed back-up outfielder.
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its 10 degrees today!
/surprisingly good weather for England
Bursting into song.
Get it? Do You?... cuz he's gay. - VolsnCards5
we have a minivan that has a digital display for the temp
About a year or two ago I had the kids guess what the C or F temp was by giving them the other one. They became surprisingly good at quickly converting temps in their heads.
I smacked Rickey right in the face when he told me this idea.
always remember
-40 is -40 in both scales
Bursting into song.
Get it? Do You?... cuz he's gay. - VolsnCards5
75F is 25C
Then it’s more less 10 degrees F for every 5 degrees C. 9 degrees F if you’re anal. At least that’s how I figured it when I was in Spain for a few months.
Also, Releasing Chris Carpenter would be a good name for a movie about transactions. It would sound like an arthouse flick, and that way you could con your significant other into seeing it. Surprise! The protagonist is Dave Duncan, and he spits a lot.
by fightin'_eyerash on Mar 1, 2012 11:50 AM EST up reply actions
I figured this out in 11th grade physics class while we were discussing temp differences and the conversions
about a minute before my teacher asked us to. I immediately raised my hand. The other math geeks in the class were not happy.
"I actually used about nine pitches--two different fastballs, two sliders, a curve, a changeup, knockdown, brushback, and hit-batsman" - Bob Gibson
Sign Mark Prior!
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Mar 1, 2012 1:00 PM EST up reply actions
that's 50, mate.
"I actually used about nine pitches--two different fastballs, two sliders, a curve, a changeup, knockdown, brushback, and hit-batsman" - Bob Gibson
Sign Mark Prior!
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Mar 1, 2012 1:00 PM EST up reply actions
That's not a knife, that's a spoon.
THE BATMAN|TOWEL BOY.|VP of TG Fanclub
Twitter|Google+|FREE TYLER GREENE!
"I'm sorry, I didn't bring a knife."
Raylan Givens — Justified.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
by fourstick on Mar 1, 2012 3:13 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
call me a limey
and i’ll fucking kill you
Bursting into song.
Get it? Do You?... cuz he's gay. - VolsnCards5
DOO DOO DOO
LITTLE DARLING IT’S BEEN A LONG, COLD, LONELY WINTER.
Fuck you Rui.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Mar 1, 2012 11:10 AM EST up reply actions
Perhaps you'd like this version better
I smacked Rickey right in the face when he told me this idea.
it is quite pleasant in Crestwood right now
I crawled the earth, but now I'm higher, 2010 watch it go to fire!
by First mammal to wear pants on Mar 1, 2012 11:19 AM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
I appreciate that multiple studies are emerging to quantify Yadi's greatness while he's still playing
That statement is completely independent of his contract. Just saying, as a fan that grew up watching Ozzie, it’s hard to get excited about watching other SS’s. I’ve felt sorry for kids watching Yadi thinking that’s what a catcher is like, when he is very much an exception. Since catching metrics have been so hard to measure, it’s nice to see some developed that capture his performance in time so they can be compared quantitatively to the bulk.
That's part of the problem of being a Cards fan.
We have had so many great players (Ozzie, Yadi, Edmonds, Pujols, Rolen, etc.) that anyone not playing those positions at that level seems terrible.
#CardinalNationProblems
I smacked Rickey right in the face when he told me this idea.
I've been watching the Cardinals for 25 years, and we've pretty much had excellent defensive catchers the entire time.
Tony Pena, Tom Pagnozzi, Mike Matheny, and Yadier Molina. It’s not just kids that will be in pain when we wind up with an averagish or below average defensive catcher.
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Mar 1, 2012 9:56 AM EST up reply actions
Adam Erlich is going to be our next catcher
And he’ll be great defensively. Mark it down.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Mar 1, 2012 11:11 AM EST up reply actions
I think Koyie Hill, Alex Cora and Scott Linebrink
have a better chance at making this team than a lot of people realize. In fact, unless Linebrink is a comlete disaster in ST, I’d say he’s a lock for a bullpen spot.
Also, I think Bryan Anderson’s chances of making the team are a bit overstated. I really don’t envision him making the team under any circumstances other than injury.
I think Tyler Greene’s chances of being the everyday 2B are also overstated. A lot of people act like this is just going to be a given. While he’s likely to be amongst the leaders in PA’s during ST, I don’t see him running away with the position. Descalso and Skip will likely scrap their way into major consideration. If you ask me this is the only intriguing battle of the spring. Greene really really really needs to step up and play up to his ability. Not just for his own sake, but it would make the Cardinals a vastly improved team. I like Descalso as a sub, but I really don’t want to see him starting 100+ games at 2B, nor do I want to see Skip playing there at all.
I am still expecting K-Mac to be traded any day now. I don’t see how he fits and I think tendering him may have been the biggest mistake of the offseason – especially if his money in anyway affected the team’s ability to sign Oswalt.
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Mar 1, 2012 9:48 AM EST reply actions
So you think the bullpen will be:
Linebrink
McClellan
Motte
2 of Salas/Boggs/Sanchez/Lynn
Rzep
Romero
I disagree with your assessment. I don’t think Matheny will choose Linbrink over a better pitcher like La Russa did with Batista.
I don’t think anyone has categorized Greene’s standing more strongly than Mozeliak in the Goold article from last weekend.
“I don’t think that’s the ideal model, and my hope is that ‘Greeny’ can take this job and do it,” Mozeliak said. “One of the things myself, Mike and the major-league staff thought was intriguing was giving Tyler Greene an opportunity to take this position. His athleticism and what he brings to the table as far as speed and power … it’s a unique skill set. (That) set is something that traditionally we haven’t had in our lineup.”
In fact, DanUp writes today:
The second base competition could be resolved early, but won’t necessarily be. Right now this seems more like an inertial thing than a tense showdown—with Skip Schumaker apparently locked in as a very odd utility man, this comes down to how much playing time Tyler Greene will steal from Daniel Descalso out of the wide side of a platoon-by-default, or whether both of them will struggle enough that Skip Schumaker suddenly seems like a palatable option.
This is hardly an overstatement.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Did I say "Danup is overstating..."?
No, I didn’t. Obviously, he’s getting the “chance” to win it. I’m just saying that overall people just assume it will be Greene. I want it to be Greene, but I’m not going to just assume that he’s going to be great like a lot of other people do.
As for the bullpen, we’ll see about that…I’m not interested in getting into a drawn out discussion about whether Linebrink will make the team. I think he will and it will be at the expense of K-Mac, and possibly Boggs..or someone might just wind up getting injured or whatever.
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Mar 1, 2012 10:22 AM EST up reply actions
I agree on Linebrink statement
we have no idea what kind of bullpen usage Matheny will prefer. I think we might have a manager that is totally different in his entire preferred use of a roster than with what we’ve come to expect from La Russa.
Then why would you agree that Linebrink will make the roster?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I confused myself on that one. Would have swore I put "with bgh on the"
I do not think Linebrink makes the team unless he has a spectacular ST.
I'm pretty excited to see how Greene and Descalso do
they both seem like they can be 2 WARish if platoon well. I’m also starting to not mind Skip being on the roster that much, as long as he rarely plays second.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Mar 1, 2012 11:13 AM EST up reply actions
Did you mean...
As long as he rarely plays?
bollocks
by SecondHalfMatt on Mar 1, 2012 11:44 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I don't think he's a bad hitter
So I’m fine with him getting some PA against righties now and then at least until Craig comes back.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Mar 1, 2012 11:48 AM EST up reply actions
My guess, assuming Linebrink doesn't suck during ST games, is...
Linebrink
McClellan
Motte
Salas
Lynn
Rzep
Romero
Sanchez and Boggs go to Memphis.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Mar 1, 2012 1:27 PM EST up reply actions
So do I,
but I think it’s pretty likely, barring a K-Mac trade.
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Mar 1, 2012 8:31 PM EST up reply actions
Also,
please don’t mistake anything here for what I want to happen. I’m certainly not interested in having multiple minor-league signings make the team. I think the Linebrink signing was a move made with the intention of him being the “veteran leader”, or whatever the hell they call it, in the bullpen. Mo mentioned several times that he wanted to add a veteran righty…well guess who the only veteran righty he signed was….Linebrink.
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Mar 1, 2012 10:43 AM EST up reply actions
I'm still bitter they didn't bring back Ankiel as a 5th OF/LOOGY dual role.
Swing and a high drive to center field...GET UP BABY...GET UP BABY, GET UP...OH YEAH - Shannon, Gm 6
by OurSaviorAaronMiles on Mar 1, 2012 9:49 AM EST reply actions
It's been years now...I bet pitching is at least somewhere in the back of Rick's mind.
How could it not be? If he can throw the ball over the plate he can prolong his career by another 10 years.
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Mar 1, 2012 9:52 AM EST up reply actions
He could pitch from center and we could employ a 5th infielder
Because anyone can play second base!
"IF CARDS CAN SIGN SUPPAN THEY CAN GIVE ME A HOME"
by Buddhasillegitimatechild38 on Mar 1, 2012 10:34 AM EST via mobile up reply actions 3 recs
Glad I finished my milk before I read this...
or I would be busy cleaning my screen lol.
One effect of no TLR in Spring Training this year:
No Friends of Tony to inspire the troops. How is the team supposed to be inspired without a pep talk from Bobby Knight or Greg Kinnear?
#givelancechants
No Bobby K, but they have Ozzie and Willie back.
Upgrade.
Retire #52!
by The Continental on Mar 1, 2012 10:26 AM EST up reply actions
Yep!
livin fuzzy in a binary world
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 1, 2012 1:40 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
Freese / Craig Complete agree to contracts
It’s fun to stop and see where the Birds are getting their value these days. Hopefully 4-5 WAR for the reasonable cost of about $1M.
I think my IQ dropped a full 20 points after reading the comments section on that article
By gosh!
by hr on Mar 1, 2012 10:18 AM EST up reply actions
never read internet comments
oh, wait. . .
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
by scoot on Mar 1, 2012 11:04 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I love the idiots on there saying the Cards are cheap
Because they aren’t paying Freese and Craig millions this year, no wonder Albert left!
I crawled the earth, but now I'm higher, 2010 watch it go to fire!
by First mammal to wear pants on Mar 1, 2012 11:18 AM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
the tragedy of this
is that had hr not read that article, his full intelligence would have allowed him to go on to invent a revolutionary, highly effective and inexpensive new treatment for heart disease. Now—still a smart guy, but dimmed by his exposure to the unfiltered putrescence of the internet—his inventions will be limited to a n ergonomically improved peanut butter jar and a scheme for packing oddly shaped fruits more densely during shipping.
I hope you feel good about what you’ve done for the future of mankind, ESPN.
by Robth on Mar 1, 2012 11:51 AM EST up reply actions 4 recs
Wait, ergonomic peanut butter isn't more important than heart disease?
Oh my god. . .
"IF CARDS CAN SIGN SUPPAN THEY CAN GIVE ME A HOME"
by Buddhasillegitimatechild38 on Mar 1, 2012 11:58 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Now, ergonomic bacon, on the other hand....
Come on, baseball
by Bring Back Tommy Herr! on Mar 1, 2012 12:00 PM EST up reply actions
Fangraphs' Top 10 Broadcasters is up
a couple drinking games
have been made for when broadcasters say certain thing, like this one for the Mets. One could definitely be made for Dan, Al, and Rick. Perhaps I’ll do a fanshot to hash out some details.
Also, I enjoyed reading the analysis on the broadcast teams.
Because Matheny
we made one for Dan and Al, as I seem to recall
but I can’t pull it up through a search
my favorite words are goodbye and my favorite color is red
I didn't remember that.
It would be easy to do. Although, I guess I would feel bad drinking for things that Dan says.
Because Matheny
Oh, Grant.
I’ve never been addicted to cocaine. I’ve never tried to kick it cold turkey. I’d imagine that it’s something like being a Cardinals fan from August through December. One week you’re standing up through the open sunroof of a limo, arms aloft as you speed down Sunset Boulevard, ready to take on the world. The next week you’re naked and crawling around the showers of the YMCA, shivering despite the 100-degree heat.
Retire #52!
by The Continental on Mar 1, 2012 10:17 AM EST reply actions 6 recs
I particularly liked this phrase
And in a division where half of the teams are as likely to win the WNBA championship as they are the NL Central,
Describes the NL Central rather well, wouldn’t you say?
by ArkansasTravs on Mar 1, 2012 11:28 AM EST up reply actions
I liked this one:
Not only did they lose their beloved franchise icon, who should get a lot of playing time at short for the Red Sox, but Albert Pujols left as well.
Because Matheny
Punto a franchise icon?
This made a lot more sense when I first thought he was talking about Renteria. Crack is whack, Grant.
"We're here to defend a championship." - Pumastache
by peppermartin on Mar 1, 2012 12:44 PM EST up reply actions
it's the grit.
grit is the franchise icon.
"That's what I'm talking about! Strike him blind, Lord!" - Berk
Running list of Molina pick-offs | twit
he misspelled "the disabled list."
i used to be disgusted, but now i try to be amused . . . - macmanus
Mark Hamilton's mechanics aren't terrible
I’m not sure what the issue. It seems like it has to be either his eye and/or his plate discipline.
Boog would have made that play.
Hamilton's had a wOBA of over .400 the last couple of seasons in AAA.
He’s had 66 PA in the majors. I think it’s probably just a sample size issue. His true talent has had enough time to show.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
According to Fangraphs
He sure seems to like to chase the slider.
The book on him is increasingly away, away, away.
If he’s trying to pull that pitch, that would explain all the ground-outs.
Boog would have made that play.
It's 66 plate appearances. 55 of which were against RHP.
Are you saying that he was chasing backdoor sliders outside the zone?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Mar 1, 2012 10:39 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
so you ARE saying he was chasing sliders from RHP?
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
Hmmmm
The contract will be added to his existing contract for the 2012 season and guarantee Molina’s place behind the plate through 2017, according to sources with knowledge of the deal.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
good to know that you'll
keep your ear to the ground
Bursting into song.
Get it? Do You?... cuz he's gay. - VolsnCards5
They'll probably replace his 2012 salary.
Makes the contract even more palatable if it’s $75M over 6 years but just a 5 year extension.
Beware: Velociraptors may be present.
i agree that 75 over 6 is better than 5
and i guess it kind of makes sense to say that it’s a 6-year contract, but only a 5-year extension
that’d be a $12.5MM AAV. i think that would be a pretty good contract for both parties.
yeah he's probably likely to get 60 million after next year
unless he has a really bad season.
Still we’re assuming a lot of risk by extending for 5 years before his next year, and I don’t think we’re getting any kind of discount. Whatever.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Mar 1, 2012 11:23 AM EST up reply actions
I'm OK with the AAV
would have liked the last year to be an option, but Yadi probably wouldn’t have gone along with that.
by ArkansasTravs on Mar 1, 2012 11:31 AM EST up reply actions
Right.
From Goold’s write-up:
“Various reports have pegged the deal at five years and $70 million or more. By adding five years to end of this season, the Cardinals would fold his $7-million salary for 2012 into the total value of deal and arrive at an annual average salary of around $12.5 million during the five-year extension.”
Same link as Tbender used btw
11 in '11!! To Infinity and Beyond!!! ...
This sounds much, much better.
Retire #52!
by The Continental on Mar 1, 2012 11:25 AM EST up reply actions
I still don't like it.
- We’re paying him based on his value after a career year.
- I don’t care so much about age as much as I care about games caught. THAT seems to be the real dividing point with catchers. Molina will be over 1000 games caught by the end of 2012. Very few catchers (Fisk and Pudge being the only real exceptions) continued to be productive players past the 1000 games barrier.
- In 2010, he hit .262/.329/.342 which was good for a .299 wOBA. Last year was the only year of his career where he’s slugged above .400.
Considering those three points above, I feel like there’s a lot of people here who will be complaining about this deal before the extension even kicks in after this season. Especially when his offense comes back to earth this season and he hits .260/.320/.360 or something similar.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
by fourstick on Mar 1, 2012 11:45 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I agree
I hate extending him after a career year, that’s such a bad business move. But I think he’ll end being worth fairly close to his contract. Maybe we’ll be overpaying by 10-15 million.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Mar 1, 2012 11:47 AM EST up reply actions
I just don't know if I can even buy that.
I thought that his defense took a real step back last season, and it’s not like he’s an exceptional athletic talent that can overcompensate when he’s no longer able to move or do certain things due to age or declining ability. I think Yadi’s baseball IQ is off the charts, but he can’t outsmart his feet if they continue to get slower.
He’s not Mike Piazza with the bat, so we’re very unlikely to get excess value from him offensively — he’s been above average only a couple of years of his career and about average for a catcher most of the rest of the time. We’re paying him to be an all-star catcher, which he was in 2011. But he wasn’t in 2010, and a good chunk of his value is defensive in nature. If that slips, even a little bit, this becomes an albatross contract.
I think that 4Y$50M would have been more than enough to get the job done. It’s not so much the money that concerns me, it’s that it’s a deal that will put him at age 34 and close to 1500 game played before he’s done. Carlton Fisk is the only catcher I can think of that caught that many games and was still a productive and valuable player, and he was a great offensive player and an athletic freak of nature in terms of durability.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
Don't you think the
advances we’re seeing in catcher evaluation will cause a fundamental shift in thinking about how much to pay these guys?
by MdRedbirdFreak on Mar 1, 2012 11:59 AM EST up reply actions
I agree that his defense took a step back
But his offense also took a step forward (and his BABIP was only .311). So if you’re going to project him as a worse defender next year, you also have to project him as a better hitter.
He’s averaged 3.9 WAR over the past 3 years (FanGraphs just added catcher PB to their defense and that gave Yadi a huge bump). So let’s project him at 3.5 WAR next year. Decline .5 WAR each year, add 5% inflation and you get a fair contract value of 74 million.
Now I agree with you that Yadi should probably be expected to decline more than the average player because of all the wear and tear, but that should be mostly offset by the value we think he gets from framing pitches and such, right?
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Mar 1, 2012 12:01 PM EST up reply actions
A good chunk of that average WAR is tied up in defense
and his career year this season. What’s his wOBA in 2011 with his career average slugging percentage? His .465 slugging in 2011 is nearly 80 points higher than his career mark. You can’t possibly believe that he’s just flipped a switch and become a guy who’s going to hit .290 and slug .450 can you?
I think the “framing pitches” value is dubious. For one thing, it’s not a “skill” that’s static — you think umpires don’t read this stuff? What if they start punishing the “good pitch framers” by not giving them as many calls? Then this advantage goes away. For two: If the market isn’t going to pay catchers more for this skill, why should we? The market continues to reward only catchers that provide above average offense at the position while handing it defensively. You don’t see $10M+ AAV deals for great defenders who are average at best offensively.
I love Yadi as much as the next Cardinals fan. But how many fans are going to love the guy who’s making $12M a season and hitting like a backup infielder? Not many. And I fear that is where we’re headed. I never thought Jason Varitek could have the entire town of Boston turn on him….and after two years of terrible play, they finally did. I don’t want to see that happen here.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
The only way
I come to resent the Cards paying Yadi $3M too much is if they are backed up hard against a $110M payroll ceiling and that $3M prevents us trading for a guy who puts us over the top as a playoff team. Unless that happens I don’t care.
If we assume the Cards payroll ceiling will be $110-115M for each of the next five years (a very good assumption), AND if we assume that $110M is required to field a playoff team each of those years (a dubious assumption), then Yadi’s contract is a problem. If the team’s player development orientation bears fruit and we can make the 2015 playoffs with a $90M payroll, why lose sleep over a Yadi overpay?
This just isn’t something to get too worked up over. I hope it doesn’t become one of those oft-beaten horses.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Mar 1, 2012 12:59 PM EST up reply actions
I absolutely doubt that umpires are reading pitch framing articles on Baseball Prospectus. That’s just not happening. Baseball already has corrective procedures in place to discuss and review pitch calling with umpires. These guys aren’t out looking for criticism on their free time. You can think it’s dubious but, unless you cast doubt on the methodology, what does your dubiousness mean?
You seem to want to pick and choose what parts of Yadi’s performances are real. A $12-15M dollar deal is still only 3WAR a season. I can’t really pluck a coherent argument against it from your comments other than 1) you don’t like a career year negotiation regardless of whether the final numbers are in line with projections 2) you are dubious of new catcher metrics and 3) Yadi is going to decline. None of that seems terrible fact based to me — which is fine — but rather more gut feel.
Beware: Velociraptors may be present.
by azruavatar on Mar 1, 2012 1:13 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I don't think I'm cherry picking stats here, and I think that Yadi is probably a 3 WAR player. But I don't think he'll be a 3 WAR player in 3 years.
It’s the length of the contract that concerns me, and I think it’s a legitimate concern to give a catcher with nearly 1000 career games a deal that guarantees him 5 more seasons. Especially one who doesn’t have surplus offensive value and can’t change positions.
Also, I know for a fact that this is untrue:
I absolutely doubt that umpires are reading pitch framing articles on Baseball Prospectus.
I know Tim McClelland and Eric Cooper personally (they are from Des Moines) and while they don’t directly read BP, they know this type of analysis exists and they discuss it with other umpires frequently.
I think it’s pretty naive to assume that if front offices, managers, and players are paying attention to this stuff that umpires are not doing so.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
Yeah I accounted for aging in my model
-.5 WAR each year. I suppose you think that’s not steep enough. But it assumes he’ll be worth 1 WAR in the last year of the deal – that’s like -5 defense and a .300 park neutral wOBA.
Even if umpires are reading pitch frame articles, they aren’t going to be able to eliminate calling framed pitches. I’m sure they already intentionally try avoid that.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
Of course they're aware of it.
There are umpire reviews that get conducted and this is a topic. While it’s not rocket science, you were originally claiming that they “read this stuff”. Now the claim is that they know about it. I may be splitting hairs but I thought you were trying to say that they are looking up individual umpire reports of themselves on BP and adjusting accordingly. That, I find laughable.
As VEP points out, a good framing catcher would be able to induce calls in spite of an umpire’s best efforts. That’s the whole point of framing.
Beware: Velociraptors may be present.
I disagree with this wholeheartedly.
I’m also not going to explicate the point, because you seem intent on splitting hairs.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
Yes Yadi gets a lot of value from his defense
8.6 runs over the past three years on average, specifically. Do you have any reason to doubt that number? The Fangraphs catcher metric, right now, is just based off PB and SB/CS those are a lot easier to measure than the UZR inputs. The only major thing that could be effecting those numbers is pitcher and fielder biases, but I don’t see any evidence that the Cardinals pitching staff is better at holding runners than average (and Skip and Theriot cost Molina a lot of SBs last year).
I don’t think he’s going to hit .290 and .450, that’s why I averaged out his past three seasons, which includes his poor 2010.
I’m not even making a strong argument for his value from framing pitches, I’m just saying we have strong evidence to believe it exists and that it adds to Yadi’s value.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
I really don't think that he'll ever have a year as good as 2011 again.
I really don’t. I think that’s as good as he can play offensively. I’d be surprised if he was even able to repeat those numbers at any point in the future.
In terms of on-field value, I think his contract is too long. In terms of value to the franchise, it’s probably about right. With all the young pitching that we have in the minors, I think having an experienced catcher with 2 rings and a ton of respect from veteran pitchers and coaches is a huge asset to our team. He’s a good clubhouse guy by all accounts and, with this deal, becomes the de facto leader in our clubhouse for much of the rest of this decade. We can’t price value those things, but I think that may be the reason we’re overpaying: Our front office feels like having him anchor the new youth movement within the pitching ranks is worth an extra year or two at $12M per season.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
Yep, and the nice
thing about the youts is that they’re cheap.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Mar 1, 2012 3:06 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I'm not saying he'll be as good as 2011
I’m saying, in 2012, he’ll likely be a bit worse than his average over 2009-2011, and then he’ll continue to decline a bit each year.
I think the overall contract is about market value actually, so while I agree that he will be overpayed in the last couple years of it, he will also be underpayed in the next couple of season.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
That's not really what I'm disagreeing with at all.
I’d actually be fine with a 4Y$50M extension, which would be roughly the same AAV. It’s the length that is a huge issue.
In terms of aging curves, most catchers don’t age gracefully and decline a bit each year — they fall of a fucking cliff never to be heard from again. Gary Carter, Jason Varitek, Ted Simmons, Darrell Porter — the list is long. And all of those guys were far better offensive players in their prime than Yadi.
This is what concerns me. I don’t have a problem paying him $12M per season — he’s worth that. I have a problem paying him for 6 more seasons at that price, especially considering that he’s logged more innings than any other catcher in the big leagues in the last 5 years.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
gah!
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/yadier-molinas-potential-payday-and-catcher-aging/
Grit != flat out sucking.
though I understand your concern
since 34-35 is that right where that cliff is, so a four year deal would be better than a 5 year deal.
Grit != flat out sucking.
This is a really flawed way of looking at it.
There are a lot of catchers who end up being out of baseball or limited duty players by age 32 or 33 (Jason LaRue, anyone?). Not to mention, only the REALLY good offensive catchers are still playing at age 34 and 35 because they’re the only ones supplying surplus value as their skills diminish. Sure, Fisk and Bench aged better than some guys at other positions, and they’ll age better than Yadi too — when they’re offensive skills diminish to 75% of where they were at their peak, they’re still 10 runs better than Yadi at his very best.
All this posting about catcher aging curves and such really strikes me as bold rationalization of this deal, rather than looking at the cold hard facts: We just locked up an average offense catcher with nearly 1000 career games played through his age 35 season.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
Great
I’m happy for our club. I like Yadier Molina.
What I really want to do is keep a list of all the SN’s that are defending this extension and re-post them in a FanPost at the end of this year when he hits .260/.325/.375.
That way you can’t come back around and be critical of this deal at that point. You know, like most of you guys do anyway: Revise history.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
then do it
I’ll write down fourstick on my list. That whay you can’t come back around and aprove the deal at the point when he his .280/.340/.410, you know, like most of you guys do anyway.
Grit != flat out sucking.
AKA: The definition of rationalization.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
I'm confused
If you include his 1 year 7 mil into the 5/75 doesn’t that make it a 6/82 deal and not 6/75 as people are saying?
by lopey986 on Mar 1, 2012 1:13 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
6/75
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Mar 1, 2012 1:19 PM EST up reply actions
via goold
Various reports have pegged the deal at five years and $70 million or more. By adding five years to end of this season, the Cardinals would fold his $7-million salary for 2012 into the total value of deal and arrive at an annual average salary of around $12.5 million during the five-year extension
give me arabica or give me death -- spants
I cant help but wonder
How Pujols feels about Molina’s extension. This will probably make him look even worse in some Cardinals fan’s minds since Yadi was willing/able to do what Pujols wasn’t by re-upping with the Cards
We're also likely giving him $20M more than he would get on the open market.
Whereas Pujols got $30M more than we were offering him.
I don’t see the correlation.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
by fourstick on Mar 1, 2012 11:50 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
that's cause you can't have a correlation with two data points, mwahahaha!
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Mar 1, 2012 11:51 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
uh no
Yadi took, in all likelihood, a big raise to stay with the Cardinals. Pujols would have had to take a big discount.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Mar 1, 2012 11:51 AM EST up reply actions
honestly, this is why I'm a little pissed off at Yadi
He definitely used the Pujols situation to get himself a big extension.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Mar 1, 2012 12:02 PM EST up reply actions
I like having players
who are smart enough to use the Pujols situation to get themselves big extensions.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Mar 1, 2012 12:05 PM EST up reply actions
this
"We're here to defend a championship." - Pumastache
by peppermartin on Mar 1, 2012 12:33 PM EST up reply actions
Que?
The team is likely paying him fair market value. Fair market value for Pujols was out of the Cardinals’ price range.
#givelancechants
Here we go again.
Bidding against ourselves on Holliday and Molina is leveraging the Cardinals in negotiations. You love to spitball on these kinds of things despite no real evidence of what you say.
Beware: Velociraptors may be present.
Glad that you mentioned Holliday...
I remember a ton of similar wailing over Holliday’s deal. Funny how that deal looks really good now….
Not really...
I mean he could go Mo Vaughn and then maybe it would look bad, but the wisdom of these kinds of deals is usually determined in the first couple of years. You expect to get an elite player early in the contract and nothing or close to nothing in years 6-7. Holliday has pretty much fulfilled his end of the bargain by being an elite player for the first two years. Certainly he needs to do a bit more to make the contract “worth it” but the heavy lifting is pretty much done.
Sign Roy O
I don't expect it to go bad
but there’s still 5 years left on that contract, it’s possible a major injury and ineffectiveness could still make it not look so good
very unlikely IMO
even if holliday never takes another AB with the cardinals now, the deal doesn’t look nearly as bad since we just won a Championship. From a public standpoint at least.
Grit != flat out sucking.
very possible
given the catcher aging curve, the Molina deal isn’t that bad. Hell, Yadi just took over front runner to be the face of the Cardinals franchise over for this ERA of Cardinals baseball from Pujols.
Grit != flat out sucking.
ok, well since this is a pre-free agency extension
the Cards are in fact bidding against themselves. So this isn’t the same situation as the Holliday contract.
Also I’m not arguing that the Cardinals were pressured by external factors into paying more for Yadier. I’m saying that Yadier seemingly used the Pujols situation to attempt to get himself a larger contract, or at the very least put extra pressure on the Cardinals to extend him by comparing himself to Pujols.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
it's called leverage.
big factor in almost every negotiation ever. holding a perceived usage of a situation against molina makes no sense.
give me arabica or give me death -- spants
Ok well it's either needlessly whiny or Borasy
either way it’s kind of annoying.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
i wish the cardinals bid against themselves with pujols
instead of letting the angels in on it.
Grit != flat out sucking.
by Evilfrog on Mar 1, 2012 2:53 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
The complaint about Holliday's contract
Was that the Cardinals bid against themselves and needlessly overpaid him when nobody else seemed to match the Cardinals’ initial offer. In my view, it’s the same situation—the Cardinals probably paid more than they had to, but to be blunt, they’ve done this in the past when they really like the player.
All I think Molina did was that he got the Cardinals to pay him his market value, perhaps a bit more (depending on how much or little you value a catcher’s value behind the plate and where you feel Molina stands). He was going to get a larger contract regardless.
I would like to see proof that the Cardinals bid against themselves
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
This is such a crazy storyline
Matt Holliday coming off of a .313 .394 .515 year in which he hit .357 .420 .628 in the 2nd half wasn’t going to get paid?
Not afraid to nitpick
not a single other offer emerged that was higher than the Cardinals
that’s evidence that they bid against themselves.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
We didn't hear about the Angels offer to Pujols until it was agreed to.
If you think every offer to player’s leak in the media, you are kidding yourself.
You’re saying the lack of evidence is evidence. It’s crazy talk.
Beware: Velociraptors may be present.
I loved when Yadi just came out and said...I want to get paid..
very refreshing and it pretty much puts the ball in Mos court to step up or move on without all the drag out bullshit…
If you like baseball...you'll love my ROKU !!!
I'm not pissed at Yadi
I’m still just mildly annoyed that the one guy they played hardball with is Pujols, while with seemingly almost everyone else they gave and continue to give people deals at the high end of their value projections, especially at the time the deals were signed.
I just think its because the Pujols deal was so long
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
Length and age, most likely.
Molina’s deal, not only shorter, will end when he’s 35 (July birthday), not counting the mutual option. Pujols’ contract will end when he’s 43.
I don't think it is really fair to characterize the Cards' negotiation with Pujols as "playing hardball"
They offered him a historically big contract which was at least his 3rd largest offer, and which he was reportedly willing to accept before the last minute intervention of the Angels with a sky high offer.
Playing "hardball" isn't really the same thing as getting blown out of the water by an offer you couldn't/wouldn't match.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Mar 1, 2012 2:24 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
It's more just the little things in the negotiations
Especially considering who they were negotiating with, i.e. a person who’s had a massive chip on his shoulder since the day he was drafted in the 13th round.
If you are going to offer the last two years as pure player option years, why not just make it a full 10 year contract instead of sending the message, “we think there’s a decent chance you won’t want to play those last ten years and rather than just giving you the opportunity to retire early and returning the money, we’re going to insist on making those years option years.”
Plus deferring 30 million dollars seemed like overkill. If you absolutely needed that money in the later years, then go back and try to restructure the deal.
when there's a ~$40m difference between your offer and someone else's,
it’s not the “little things.”
also, i have no idea what you mean by albert having a massive chip on his shoulder since he was drafted.
and i’ve never heard of a player being “offended” by a player option. it doesn’t generally mean, “you might prefer to retire” — because, you know, you can retire anytime you like (it’s a little thing called the 13th amendment). it means “you might get paid more elsewhere and prefer to test the market.”
i used to be disgusted, but now i try to be amused . . . - macmanus
Chip on Albert's shoulder
is quite well documented as a very good theory.
One example was from Joe Posnanski here.
that's not documentation. that's a collection of stories about slights; an observation that
pujols is really, really good; and a hypothesis that the two are linked. but there’s not any evidence of that link in the article, just pos saying he thinks they’re related.
i used to be disgusted, but now i try to be amused . . . - macmanus
I don't think he got a big raise at all over what the open market may pay.
Won’t the Yankees be looking for a catcher after this year?
Yadi has been durable. He’s smart, he’s a fair hitter, and he’s one of the top 4 or 5 catchers in baseball.
halfway through it I thought, "this is a really nerdy thing I'm posting." but I just had to power through to the end.
Danup
There's a world of difference
between a 10-year and a 5-year deal. Big enough IMO that it’s not fruitful to compare them, and that’s not even taking into account the differences in AAV. Whatever negative effects Yadi’s deal has on the Cardinals near future will be much less damaging than what AP’s contract would have wrought.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Mar 1, 2012 11:56 AM EST up reply actions
Especially when that difference...
…will include nearly a 10-year difference in the ages of the two players when the contract ends.
all of the living HOFers are getting rings too!
I crawled the earth, but now I'm higher, 2010 watch it go to fire!
by First mammal to wear pants on Mar 1, 2012 11:21 AM EST via iPhone app reply actions
Probably in their personal services contract
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
I feel this would have been more fitting as insanity wolf
"IF CARDS CAN SIGN SUPPAN THEY CAN GIVE ME A HOME"
by Buddhasillegitimatechild38 on Mar 1, 2012 12:08 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I don't mind the Molina si9gning at all
but am I the only one that thinks Cruz would be an adequate replace for him after this year?
Cruz was just mediocre in his limited duty last season
and while that’s not enough of a sample to judge him, he’s also been only mediocre in the minors.
He had a few games last year where he looked like a major league baseball player, but that’s far from what I’d want to see before I’d say he’d be a adequate starter.
Isn't it amazing how one of our biggest prospects used to be Bryan Anderson
Who doesn’t even make an adequate starting catcher? Thank god we have a real farm system now
"IF CARDS CAN SIGN SUPPAN THEY CAN GIVE ME A HOME"
by Buddhasillegitimatechild38 on Mar 1, 2012 12:12 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
To be fair, we'd be pretty happy with a 19 year old in AA putting up a .937 OPS now, too.
"He probably misses his old glasses."
by Alxfritz on Mar 1, 2012 12:17 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
(Of course, he was probably promoted too early after that, which may have hurt?)
"He probably misses his old glasses."
Ok, this is a good point
"IF CARDS CAN SIGN SUPPAN THEY CAN GIVE ME A HOME"
by Buddhasillegitimatechild38 on Mar 1, 2012 12:56 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
He was 21 when he did that
and it was only 19 games’ worth of stats.
"I actually used about nine pitches--two different fastballs, two sliders, a curve, a changeup, knockdown, brushback, and hit-batsman" - Bob Gibson
Sign Mark Prior!
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Mar 1, 2012 1:34 PM EST up reply actions
Oh yeah, I'm dumb.
His 18 & 19 year old seasons were very promising, though!
"He probably misses his old glasses."
/catcherintagiblesarehardtoquantify
"We're here to defend a championship." - Pumastache
by peppermartin on Mar 1, 2012 12:18 PM EST up reply actions
just shows how differently people see things
which is normal.
I thought Cruz looked good defensively in his limited playing time last year.
I can think off hand of one game in which he handled Garcia very well and two
games in which he caught Carpenter. In fact after the first game, Carpenter actually
asked for Cruz to catch him in the second game. A nod of approval from Carpenter is enough for me.
Apparently not the Cardinals
Boog was sent packing and Yadi has the truck backed up
"IF CARDS CAN SIGN SUPPAN THEY CAN GIVE ME A HOME"
by Buddhasillegitimatechild38 on Mar 1, 2012 12:55 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
So I asked last thread, but
What are the chances that Matt Carpenter gets shipped off to the Athletics? It makes sense, right? Matt Carpenter is basically the create-a-player that Billy Beane makes in MLB: The Show and their current plan for 3b in 2012 is to play the lucky fan in Section 372, Row 14, Seat 9.
And we’ve got nowhere for MCarp to play (yet). Do we end up with Grant Green or something?
I would hate to see what Billy Beane could do on MLB: The Show...
I feel like his franchise would never lose…
you mean the guy
who hasn’t finished over .500 since ‘06?
Beane’s kinda disinterested baseball these days, right?
MCarp...
makes sense for Oakland, but I doubt we would be able to get Grant Green in return, even though Green is now considered an OF (a drop in value for a former SS – moved off of SS because of errors).
he makes sense...
a little TOO MUCH sense if you ask me
Bursting into song.
Get it? Do You?... cuz he's gay. - VolsnCards5
Green...
is supposed to be a high average hitter, with little power and is not a burner. He does play CF now and projects to be a solid defensive CF going foward.
The new post Dispatch baseball app is awesome.
by Cheeseballs on Mar 1, 2012 1:21 PM EST via mobile reply actions
maybe I should check that out...
every time i try to read an article on the pd on my android phone it boots me out after opening the article.
If you like baseball...you'll love my ROKU !!!
Does it still cost money?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Mar 1, 2012 1:30 PM EST up reply actions
Oh, my word
A.J. Burnett has been diagnosed with an orbital fracture of his right eye…He will undergo surgery tomorrow in Pittsburgh.
— Pittsburgh Pirates (@Pirates) March 1, 2012
I am so sorry, Pirates fans.
By gosh!
damn...
I know the Pirate are not his first choice but I don’t think it’s bad enough to merit injuring yourself to avoid playing for the Bucs…
If you like baseball...you'll love my ROKU !!!
...how the hell?
did he get into a bar fight?
Bursting into song.
Get it? Do You?... cuz he's gay. - VolsnCards5
great, another reason people will have to hate on the NL.
THE BATMAN|TOWEL BOY.|VP of TG Fanclub
Twitter|Google+|FREE TYLER GREENE!
At least, they never stood a chance anyway
livin fuzzy in a binary world
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 1, 2012 1:43 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
To add insult to injury, this happened yesterday afternoon
And this was reported soon afterwards:
First word from Hurdle, exiting trainer’s room, on AJ: “He’s all right.” #Pirates #MLB
— Tom Singer (@Tom_Singer) February 29, 2012
apparently wasn’t the case…
By gosh!
by hr on Mar 1, 2012 1:39 PM EST up reply actions
Orbital just means one of the many bones around the eye, right?
Are some orbital bones worse than others to break?
HALP VEB DOCTOR TYPEZ
Yeah, there is a difference
Some people refer to a zygomatic arch fracture (think the upper cheekbone just below your eye) as an orbital fracture and those usually aren’t huge deals unless they’re displaced. But a fracture of the bones inside the orbit of the eye is usually a bigger deal since the eyeball itself and the eye muscles and the optic nerve are all in there as well. So it kind of depends exactly where the fracture is located.
Come on, baseball
by Bring Back Tommy Herr! on Mar 1, 2012 3:46 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Sickels is doing a Q&A get in on it while you can.
THE BATMAN|TOWEL BOY.|VP of TG Fanclub
Twitter|Google+|FREE TYLER GREENE!
Molina press conference
Anyone have a link to watch online?
get the torches, boys
we got us a stadium to burn
by Robth on Mar 1, 2012 2:18 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
any numbers/years yet? are they counting the $7M for 2012 in the $70M?
probably not getting into that in the presser though
11 in 11' √
"2011 is dead. Long live 2012!." ... Az.
crazy
Molina’s new deal starts for 2013. Contract for 2012 stays in place at $7 million. New deal guaranteed thru 2017, option for 2018
I smacked Rickey right in the face when he told me this idea.
Heyman says 2018 mutual option is 15 million
By gosh!
by hr on Mar 1, 2012 2:20 PM EST up reply actions
Called it!
(easiest prediction ever)
Retire #52!
by The Continental on Mar 1, 2012 2:54 PM EST up reply actions
Not as good
Burn it down
livin fuzzy in a binary world
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 1, 2012 2:28 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
So the Cards turned a 1yr/$7MM deal into a 6yr/$82MM deal with a NTC?
by Willie McGee's Twin on Mar 1, 2012 2:32 PM EST reply actions
Yadiiiiiiiiiiiiiii
livin fuzzy in a binary world
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 1, 2012 2:33 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
Very doubtful. Mutual options aren't counted because they're not guranteed.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Mar 1, 2012 2:37 PM EST up reply actions
yes, and included a mutual option for the 7th year worth 15 million
By gosh!
by hr on Mar 1, 2012 2:34 PM EST up reply actions
lets be fair
the mutual option doesn’t affect the quality of the deal unless there’s a vesting clause or a buyout. Cards can just decline to pick up their half of the option if his play doesn’t figure to be worth the $ in 2018.
That said, this deal is slightly worse than the version I had imagined. Silly Cardinals, why can’t you sign the contracts I imagine instead of the contracts you sign?
It doesn't affect the deal at all IMO
I just added that to get the entire deal straight
By gosh!
by hr on Mar 1, 2012 3:03 PM EST up reply actions
I think they turned it into a 6/75
by outraged on Mar 1, 2012 2:45 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
nope
The deal, which starts with the 2013 season, is worth $75 million over the five years, as first reported by FoxSports.com. Molina’s current contract stays in place at $7 million for 2012, bringing the potential annual average value of his contracts for the next seven years to $13.6 million.
I smacked Rickey right in the face when he told me this idea.
6/82, potentially 7/97 if option is exercised.
Ntc doesn’t matter, he had 10/5 rights next year anyway.
by lopey986 on Mar 1, 2012 2:52 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
ugh
After reading the Goold article and his twee that the option is worth 15 million, I think it’s 7/95 with the option. 6/80 without the option. Essentially adding 5 years and 73 million.
1 WAR doesn't cost any more now
than it cost in 2007. 1 WAR in 2000 actually cost MORE than 1 WAR in 2005.
We need to stop pretending that this is a fact. It isn’t.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
who's pretending?
The fact of the matter is, the value of a dollar has been deceasing for a while now. Ticket prices will go up (in turns of face value). Payroll will go up. (in turns of face value). Deal will stay the same.
Grit != flat out sucking.
Apparently you are...
The fact of the matter is.
Well, it’s not a fact. That’s the point.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
a point which is wrong
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/a-retrospective-look-at-the-price-of-a-win-part-two/
Estimated $/WAR in 2000 was 3.0
Estimated $/WAR in 2005 was 4.3
Estimated $/WAR in 2011 was 6.1
Grit != flat out sucking.
Oh, so now we're including draft picks and a whole bunch of other shit too?
I didn’t realize that. This gets more and more flawed as we go.
At the top of your link:
2007 Estimated $/WAR: 4.5
2011 Estimated $/WAR: 4.5
Ahem. That’s EXACTLY THE POINT I WAS MAKING. Sheesh. Now you want to add layers and layers of complexity on TOP of that.
FWIW — this is an analysis that is looking at whether teams are paying non-linear salaries for players IN THE PAST. They aren’t, and I think we’d all agree that the data demonstrates this.
What I disagree with is that fact that $/WAR will just continue to climb at a linear rate forever. It won’t, and it hasn’t. So making the assumption that it will is like throwing your life savings into the S&P500 and just ASSUMING that it will grow at 6% per year FOREVER. It’s a fucking fools errand, and it’s really piss poor to assume that this is a “fact”, especially when the raw data suggests that the 2010 market had a lower valuation of actual dollars paid than the 2007 market.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
not gonna panic until all the details are solidified...
not gonna panic until all the details are solidified… not gonna panic until all the details are solidified…
Why are people 'panicking'
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
Way to just start following me, asshole
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
Because a successful franchise has now crumbled due to a devestating behemoth of a contract
Just as it foretold in the Bible.
#givelancechants
I have no idea...
people like it when teams do something clever like get a Beltran for 2/26 or Madson for 1/8. Paying retail for a high end product is not popular.
Sign Roy O
he'll be 34 at the end of this contract...
if he’s still hitting homers by then, they might need to take commercial breaks while he’s rounding the bases.
…but I’m still glad he’s not going to the Angels.
I don't understand...
you mean you’re holding judgment until you find out if the deal starts in 2012 or 2013?
Sign Roy O
wait, i think i did a math fail.
6/82 would just be the 5/75 on top of the 7 million in 2012… I get it now.
FYI
St. Louis Cardinals @Cardinals
Watch @CHConfidential on @MLBNetwork at 4:30pm & 6:30pm CT for an interview with @Cardinals GM John Mozeliak.
It's Spring Again! ...witch
i don't like the deal.
call it a gut feeling, call it whatever. i just don’t think this will turn out well in 2015 and beyond.
taking copious amounts of undeserved crap since early 2006
by stlcardinalsfang on Mar 1, 2012 3:00 PM EST reply actions
is this time for you to take more undesevered crap?
cause i think you’re wrong.
Bursting into song.
Get it? Do You?... cuz he's gay. - VolsnCards5
yeah no shit it will be bad in the last 2 years of the contract
but your getting a bargain over the next few years.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
is 'World'
capitalised when talking about the World, as in the place where we all live?
Bursting into song.
Get it? Do You?... cuz he's gay. - VolsnCards5
No.
It’s only capitalized in “World Series” and capitalised in “World Cup.”
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Mar 1, 2012 3:03 PM EST up reply actions
I like how you
responded to our Brit friend by including both American and British spelling of capitalized.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Mar 1, 2012 3:05 PM EST up reply actions
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- Benches clear at Fenway as Red Sox-Rays rivalry heats up
- Keeping good company: Albert Pujols becomes fourth-youngest player to hit 450 home runs
