Cardinals Offense vs. Reds Offense - 2012

by AC Slider on Feb 3, 2012 12:25 PM EST

Continuing our comparison of the 2012 Reds to the 2012 Cardinals, let's see how each offense projects...

One important caveat...

The following comparisons don't account for playing time. Players like Allen Craig figure to be a major part of the Cardinals offense, despite not being represented here. Likewise, for the Reds, Ryan Hanigan, Ryan Ludwick, and other "role players" will likely see significant playing time. However, in the interests of simplicity, I used only the players I expect to get the majority of the playing time at their respective positions.

Today, we’ll look at offense only. The following projections can be found at FanGraphs. I’m using Bill James’ 2012 projections for this exercise. First, let’s look at how the two teams match up by position…

Second Base

Brandon Phillips (2B)

BILL JAMES: AVG/OBP/SLG – .279/.334/.435; wOBA – .332

Skip Schumaker (2B)

BILL JAMES: AVG/OBP/SLG – .282/.340/.363; wOBA – .309

Differential (wOBA): +.23 Reds

Short Stop

Zack Cozart (SS)

BILL JAMES: AVG/OBP/SLG – .256./.306/.404; wOBA – .315

Raphael Furcal

BILL JAMES: AVG/OBP/SLG – .270/.338/.394; wOBA – .324

Differential (wOBA): +.09 Cardinals

First Base

Joey Votto (1B)

BILL JAMES: AVG/OBP/SLG – .310./.412/.547; wOBA – .403

Lance Berkman (1B)

BILL JAMES: AVG/OBP/SLG – .279/.396/.498; wOBA – .380

Differential (wOBA): +.23 Reds

Right Field

Jay Bruce (RF)

BILL JAMES: AVG/OBP/SLG – .270./.349/.510; wOBA – .363

Carlos Beltran (RF)

BILL JAMES: AVG/OBP/SLG – .279/.369/.480; wOBA – .367

Differential (wOBA): +.04 Cardinals

Third Base

Scott Rolen (3B)

BILL JAMES: AVG/OBP/SLG – .268./.338/.434; wOBA – .334

David Freese (3B)

BILL JAMES: AVG/OBP/SLG – .299/.357/.452; wOBA – .353

Differential (wOBA): +.19 Cardinals

Left Field

Chris Heisey (LF)

BILL JAMES: AVG/OBP/SLG – . 267/.328/.485; wOBA – .346

Matt Holliday (LF)

BILL JAMES: AVG/OBP/SLG – .307/.390/.533; wOBA – .394

Differential (wOBA): +.48 Cardinals

Center Field

Drew Stubbs (CF)

BILL JAMES: AVG/OBP/SLG – . 258/.336/.403; wOBA – .331

Jon Jay (CF)

BILL JAMES: AVG/OBP/SLG – .287/.340/.414; wOBA – .328

Differential (wOBA): +.03 Reds

Catcher

Devin Mesoraco (C)

BILL JAMES: AVG/OBP/SLG – . 262/.324/.457; wOBA – .332

Yadier Molina (C)

BILL JAMES: AVG/OBP/SLG – .282/.340/.394; wOBA – .320

Differential (wOBA): +.12 Reds

Combined Differential: +.29 Cardinals

Summary: The Reds project to have an offensive advantage at 5 of the 8 position, yet the Cardinals project to be slightly more productive overall due to huge offensive advantages at third base and left field.

My take: I think these projections are slightly pessimistic with Cozart. While I don’t expect Cozart to be great, I do believe he can produce at-or-above Furcal’s projection. Likewise, James seems to be very low on Drew Stubbs. I’m expecting Stubbs to be at least as good as he was in 2010, if not better. On the flip side, I’m not as optimistic about Devin Mesoraco for 2012. I expect great things from the young catcher, but an OPS approaching .800 is a lot to expect from a rookie. I believe Mesoraco is certainly capable of that kind of year, but I find it unlikely.

For the Cards, I expect Jon Jay to be better than these projections suggest. James has Jay's SLG and OBP below his career average. Conversely, I'd be surprised if David Freese put up these numbers. I expect a slight regression from Freese in the power department, and overall wOBA slightly under his 2011 numbers.

Your thoughts?

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Comments

If anything, Freese's BABIP will regress down and his ISO/SLG will regress up

Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
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by mysterui on Feb 3, 2012 2:06 PM EST reply actions

perhaps...

But his HR/FB rate was almost 17% last year, well above his career average.

Barry Larkin > Ozzie Smith

by AC Slider on Feb 3, 2012 2:14 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions

His BABIP has been very high his whole career, all levels...

That’s mainly because he hits a ton of line drives and very few fly balls. I wouldn’t expect a major dip in BABIP, if any at all.

Barry Larkin > Ozzie Smith

by AC Slider on Feb 3, 2012 2:23 PM EST up reply actions

If Skip Schumaker is our primary second baseman then something will have gone terribly wrong

We’re basically hoping/assuming a combination of Tyler Greene (Bill James projected wOBA .316) and Daniel Descalso (.300) will get the bulk of the PAs. We’re also hoping those two outperform their projections, but at the very least they will be way better defensively than Skip and Greene at least has a much higher ceiling.

"I'll be deep in the cold, cold ground before I recognize Missoura!"

by mattybobo on Feb 3, 2012 3:53 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

Yeah...

I wasn’t sure what the situation was a 2B for the Cardinals so I just based this off the depth-chart on the MLB page.

As I look at Green’s career, I’m perplexed… Dude has crushed the ball in AAA, but it certainly hasn’t translated to the MLB just yet… He does strike out an awful lot. In many ways, he’s similar to Drew Stubbs, with slightly less speed and power.

Barry Larkin > Ozzie Smith

by AC Slider on Feb 3, 2012 4:09 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, he hasn't put it together in the majors

The jury is still out, as he’s never had more than a hundred or so PAs at the majors in the same year (greatest to least PAs in a season: 122, 121, 116). It seems like he might get a real chance to finally prove if he can hit this year… but that has been said before too.

"I'll be deep in the cold, cold ground before I recognize Missoura!"

by mattybobo on Feb 3, 2012 4:42 PM EST up reply actions

One of the PD scribes

I believe it was Goold, did a piece where he showed that when Greene got even a semblence of consistant playing time, he had some decent numbers. They were few and (even farther) between, but in his 3 seasons of time at the ML level, there were like 3 separate times where he played like 5 full games out of 7, or something like that, and his numbers (albeit SSS) were good. Maybe he just needs a stretch of consistant playing time (which Tony never gave him) to get going.

by Cardsray on Feb 3, 2012 4:48 PM EST up reply actions

I actually think he's pretty close to Stubbs in both speed and power

Maybe a bit less speed and a bit more power, but that’s not a bad comp

Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
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by mysterui on Feb 3, 2012 4:49 PM EST up reply actions

interesting

I haven’t seen enough of Green to compare the speed. All I know is that Stubbs is the fastest player I’ve seen since Deon Sanders.

Greene hasn’t shown the same power as Stubbs at this point, and Greene is a year older. But it’s quite possible Stubbs’ power surge in 2010 was due to GABP. A lot of his HR are opposite field to the shortest fence in the park.

Either way, they are both blessed with decent pop and great speed. Both fail to make contact too often but walk at a decent rate. Very similar

Barry Larkin > Ozzie Smith

by AC Slider on Feb 3, 2012 5:50 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions

As far as career ML Spd scores (fangraphs):

Stubbs has a 7.0 score and Greene has a 6.8. Stubbs has 80SB/20CS and Greene has 16SB/0 CS. (of course, successfully stealing bases has a lot to do with timing/technique, as well as speed.)

In any event, I think Stubbs is a very good comp to Greene – similar athletes, high K hitters with decent walk rates, and their batted ball profiles are very, very similar (e.g. 18.6% LD % for Greene and 18.2% for Stubbs). The primary difference is HR/FB (14% to 6% in favor of Stubbs) and BABIP – a whopping 51 point differential in favor of Stubbs. But given the very similar batted ball profile and very similar speed, the BABIP would appear to be an anamoly caused by primarily by Greene’s limited PAs. Also, I would say the power differential on HR/FB is also a function of SSS – Greene’s HR/FB was double digits in AAA, in a park that suppressed HRs.

Plus, Greene does in fact have good power (like Stubbs): http://stlouis.cardinals.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=9589211&c_id=mlb

by Willie McGee's Twin on Feb 4, 2012 12:24 PM EST up reply actions

Wondering...

Who are the likely bench players for the Cardinals in 2012? Obviously Craig, Greene and Descalso… Who else?

Barry Larkin > Ozzie Smith

by AC Slider on Feb 3, 2012 4:15 PM EST reply actions

Well, I think the current assumption is that Craig will probably be given the chance to be the primary right fielder whenever he ends up healthy and ready

Which would probably put Beltran at center and Jay as the primary back up outfielder. Other bench outfielders could theoretically be Erik Komatsu (rule 5 guy), Adron Chambers, maybe even a Shane Robinson or something.

I am guessing Matt Carpenter has a decent chance of getting some time, I am not really sure which other infielder might be in the mix.

"I'll be deep in the cold, cold ground before I recognize Missoura!"

by mattybobo on Feb 3, 2012 4:45 PM EST up reply actions

.

velez

by Willie McGee's Twin on Feb 3, 2012 5:43 PM EST up reply actions

anderson or cruz will take one of the five bench spots.

craig and komatsu/chambers should be filling other roles in the outfield.
descalso and greene will fill the infield positions.

i think carpenter will get a spot (at the expense of komatsu/chambers) if the club in fact plans schumaker to take over 5th OF duties more so than second base work.

i used to be disgusted, but now i try to be amused . . . - macmanus

by tom s. on Feb 3, 2012 9:36 PM EST up reply actions