Cardinals Rotation vs. Reds Rotation - 2012
by AC Slider on Feb 2, 2012 10:49 AM EST
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PrintHowdy folks!
I posted this yesterday over at Red Reporter. I thought I'd share it with the kind souls at Viva El Birdos as well...
While we all know that projections are typically flawed, especially when it comes to pitchers, I found the following projections from Bill James to be quite surprising. According to James' projections, the Reds' rotation is just about as good as the Cards'....
The following projections can be found at FanGraphs. I’m using Bill James’ 2012 projections for this exercise. First, the projections, then some notes:
“ACE”
- K/9 – 7.09; BB/9 – 2.82; ERA – 3.77; FIP – 4.02
- K/9 – 7.49; BB/9 – 2.28; ERA – 3.27; FIP – 3.24
Differential (ERA): 0.5, Cardinals advantage
#2 Starter
- K/9 – 8.79; BB/9 – 2.73; ERA – 2.99; FIP – 3.11
- K/9 – 7.04; BB/9 – 2.17; ERA – 3.25; FIP – 3.25
Differential (ERA): 0.26, Reds advantage
(the rest... after the jump)
- K/9 – 7.43; BB/9 – 2.60; ERA – 3.96; FIP – 3.88
- K/9 – 7.38; BB/9 – 2.70; ERA – 3.64; FIP – 3.47
Differential (ERA): 0.32, Cardinals advantage
#4 Starter
- K/9 – 6.22; BB/9 – 2.33; ERA – 4.04; FIP – 4.47
- K/9 – 5.45; BB/9 – 2.28; ERA – 4.02; FIP – 4.09
Differential (ERA): 0.02, Cardinals advantage
#5 Starter
- K/9 – 5.70; BB/9 – 2.22; ERA – 4.00; FIP – 4.68
- K/9 – 5.16; BB/9 – 3.39; ERA – 4.33; FIP – 4.35
Differential (ERA): 0.33, Reds advantage
Total Differential (ERA): 0.25, Cardinals advantage
Summary: The Cardinals project to have an advantage at 3 of the 5 spots in the rotation, and a slight advantage overall. Obviously, several factors can/will change all of this. MLB teams rarely (never) make it through an entire season using only 5 starting pitchers. In the end, the health of each rotation will determine the overall advantage.
My Take: I was surprised by how closely these rotations project for the 2012 season. The addition of Latos goes a long way in bridging the gap between the two rotations. I don’t take issue with any of James’ projections here. However, it will be interesting to see how Wainwright recovers from major surgery. When he’s right, he’s a top 5 pitcher in the NL, but as we all know, Tommy John surgery can have have a lingering impact on performance.
X-Factors: Two pitchers could dramatically change the overall dynamics of these rotations. For the Cardinals, Roy Oswalt would offer a significant upgrade over Jake Westbrook. As of now, Oswalt is not signed, and the Cardinals look like they are among the finalists in the Oswalt sweepstakes. For the Reds, Aroldis Chapman could offer an upgrade similar to that of Oswalt. Should Chapman transition to the role of starting pitcher effectively, he will be pitching in this rotation. The big question is: who would he replace? The easy answer is Arroyo, but due to his large salary that seems unlikely. Nonetheless, Chapman and Oswalt represent the wildcards for 2012. Here’s what James expects from them this season:
- K/9 – 7.00; BB/9 – 2.26; ERA – 3.47; FIP – 3.52
- K/9 – 12.17; BB/9 – 6.17; ERA – 3.33; FIP – 3.51
Thoughts?
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If I were you, I'd adjust Latos and Wainwright both downward due to moving from Petco and injury respectively.
Also, why not use the FIP differential and IP instead of ERA? ERA is going to be unkind to Reds pitchers in general due to the offensive park in which they play. Also, none of the pitchers listed above reached 200 innings last season except Chris Carpenter (Arroyo and Garcia almost made it), and he’s in his late 30s, so you might go deeper to project 6th and 7th starters because they will likely see quite a few innings.
In any case, I don’t think it’s unabashed homerism that makes me say the Cardinals have the better rotation. Much depends on Latos’s transition to the smaller park, although he is probably the best pitcher on either team at this point, and the Reds’ pitchers are in general much less proven and more volatile. If Chapman doesn’t transition to primarily starting this season, either Dusty Baker is a complete idiot or Chapman really needs to get his control issues sorted out in the minors.
"Congratulations to the Cardinals! Such a fun world series." - Salman Rushdie
All good points...
I didn’t go any further in-depth (innings pitched) for simplicity reasons. Projections are already unreliable, and predicting health takes that even one step further. Same reason for using ERA over FIP. I know that most of the people here are familiar with FIP, but for the average fan, ERA is much easier to understand.
And I agree, the Cardinals have the better rotation, especially if they add Oswalt. The success of the Reds rotation is dependent on 2-3 young guys reaching their potential, specifically, Homer Bailey. Like you said, the Reds rotation is more volatile. They could be very good, or (like last year) very bad.
Barry Larkin > Ozzie Smith
Projections might be "unreliable" but using their career ERA is worse still...
Arroyo is much worse than his career ERA indicates. He was worth about -1.5 wins last year.
Sign Roy O
Debatable...
Who used career ERA? Certainly no me.
Even the most die-hard members of the sabermetrics crowd will tell you that pitching metrics are far less reliable than offensive metrics.
There are several players who don’t fit the mold. It’s one thing when a pitcher out-performs his xFIP/FIP over one season. But Arroyo has out performed his FIP and xFIP consistently throughout his career.
We’re talking about nearly 2,000 innings pitched. Clearly, there’s something he does that advanced predictors don’t account for.
Randy Wolf is in the same category. Consistently better than xFIP/FIP suggest.
Having said that, I will admit that Arroyo is not very good. I’m simply stating that there are various pitchers for whom the saber-rules simply don’t apply.
Barry Larkin > Ozzie Smith
And...
You can make a strong case that Arroyo was the victim of some very bad luck last year…
His K/BB was the best he has posted in 4 years.
The major problem was his HR/FB rate, which was 15.9% – 50% higher than his career HR/FB of 10.6%.
That increase in HR/FB cost Arroyo nearly 20 HRs in 2011.
And yes, most believe that HR/FB is mostly a function of luck
Barry Larkin > Ozzie Smith
As the others have said
FIP just makes more sense overall. But in every comparison you list, ERA just so happens to be more favorable to Reds pitchers than FIP.
When you compare FIPs, the Cardinals’ advantage jumps from 0.25 to 1.76 (0.3 per starter), which really puts the Cardinals’ rotation on another level from the Reds.
by Cheeseandcorn on Feb 2, 2012 2:37 PM EST up reply actions
Fair point
As I pointed out, I do believe the Cards rotation is better than the Reds rotation.
One thing to consider however…. FIP analyzes pitchers in a vacuum (hence, “fielding independent.”) So yes, all other things equal, the Cardinals rotation looks far better than the Reds.
But in reality, the Reds have a much better defensive team than the Cardinals, and that’s probably the main reason the projected ERAs are closer than the projected FIPs.
So sure, the Cardinals individual pitchers are better than the Reds, but by the end of the season the end result (runs allowed) could be nearly identical.
Barry Larkin > Ozzie Smith
but then this really doesn't show that the rotations are comparable, just that their ERAs might be comparable.
a better way to restate the outcome might be that the cardinals rotation projects to be better than the reds’, but that the reds excellent defense mitigates that factor. or better yet, the cardinals’ rotation + the cardinals’ defense is roughly equal in total value to the reds’ rotation + the reds’ defense.
because i can readily see someone using the way you’ve framed the conclusion of the post and to innocently double-count the defense effect: “our rotations are equal, according to the projections, our defense is better, and our offense is comparable. ergo, the reds are better.”
i used to be disgusted, but now i try to be amused . . . - macmanus
I suppose I worded it wrong
When I said I was “quite surprised” by James’ projections, I’m saying I think the Cardinals rotation is better. I suppose I was just intrigued by the fact that he had the overall ERA so close. As been pointed out, ERA is not the best measure of pitcher performance. Perhaps what I should’ve said is… Due to various factors, it’s plausible for the Reds rotation to prevent runs at a similar rate to the Cardinals rotation.
Barry Larkin > Ozzie Smith
by AC Slider on Feb 2, 2012 9:43 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
I wouldn't say they are that much better in the infield
who will be the reds shortstop?
VEL starts Tuesday
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 5, 2012 11:56 PM EST up reply actions
well, i'm assuming (perhaps incorrectly) that bill james uses last year's defense to adjust these ERA
projections. which means we had a season that was about 70% schumaker at second and 60% theriot at short used for our projections.
i used to be disgusted, but now i try to be amused . . . - macmanus
i noticed the same thing (the reds ERA outpacing their FIP) and was totally perplexed. unless James' model is factoring
in what it thinks will be outstanding infield defense – it would have to be to overwhelm a pretty substantial park factor – i don’t see why you’d like the reds to be better by ERA than FIP.
i used to be disgusted, but now i try to be amused . . . - macmanus
Comparing Latos' FIP to xFIP
it appears he benefited greatly from SD’s homerun depression environment. With that in mind, I think his FIP projection is much too bullish (although he is admittedly a very solid pitcher), as his HR/9 will regress more towards the league average at GAB.
my favorite words are goodbye and my favorite color is red
Well...
His HR/9 might regress a bit, but his road numbers are basically the same as home. He gave up 8 HR in 91.2 IP at Petco last year, and 8 HR in 102.2 IP on the road last year. His HR/FB rate was actually higher at Petco than on the road…
So sure, GABP is a launching pad, and most pitchers see some regression when joining the Reds. But I wouldn’t expect a huge regression from Latos in that department. In addition, any regression in HRs allowed will likely be offset by pitching in front of the best defense in the National League (The Reds).
Barry Larkin > Ozzie Smith
To be fair
the Padres had the 2nd best defense in baseball last year, so the upgrade in defenses is probably minimal.
expectations are premeditated resentments - cheshirecat
All I can think of
when I look at Chapman’s line is:
“Holy walks chap-man” in my best robin voice.
even with that K rate
the walks he will issue in all likelihood make bill james’ projections seem a little crazy for chapman… he hasn’t really been that impressive so far, right?
VEL starts Tuesday
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 5, 2012 11:58 PM EST up reply actions
Impressive?
Hard to say…
At times, Chapman looks unhittable with pinpoint control. At other times, it looks as if he can’t throw a strike,
Barry Larkin > Ozzie Smith
Thanks for these btw
Good to get the ball rollin
VEL starts Tuesday
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 6, 2012 1:46 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
Interesting stuff here
I don’t have much to add in substance. The FIP/ERA/defense thing and the fact that we are only looking at one projection are just necessary limitations for a piece like this. Cool to see, and I always think it’s cool when fans from another site offer good-faith content. The inter-fandom snark gets tiring to me.
"I'll be deep in the cold, cold ground before I recognize Missoura!"
Indeed
I also put together a similar piece comparing the projections for the Reds offense vs the Cardinals offense. I may post that here as well… You know, I didn’t even realize how good the Cardinals offense was last year, and it might be even better this year…
Barry Larkin > Ozzie Smith
Cool, you should post it
Anyway, your comments about the offense were spot-on. I think a lot of people failed to realize how good and balanced the Cardinals offensive attack was, despite Pujols’ “down” year. Molina, Punto, Jay, and Craig may all have hit better than anybody expected.
Will be fun to see what continues into 2012.
"I'll be deep in the cold, cold ground before I recognize Missoura!"
Don't forget Berkman...
I remember laughing when the Cards signed Berkman. Thoughts were, “good luck with that! Dude is done!” Boy was I wrong…
Regarding Molina… It looks like his power numbers made a huge jump last year. Do you think that was “flukey” or is it possible that last year was a sign of things to come?
Barry Larkin > Ozzie Smith
Hard to say if I think Molina was flukey.
He didn’t really have a spike in any of his other numbers besides homers and doubles (compared to the previous few years anyway). So it might not be a fluke. It didn’t really look like “luck” anyway. That doesn’t mean the power surge is here to stay either, in fact, I would definitely assume he’ll be closer to 2008-2010 version of himself, which was awesome anyway. If he can hit around an average level and provide the defense he provides he is a pretty awesome combination.
"I'll be deep in the cold, cold ground before I recognize Missoura!"
No doubt...
As good as he is behind the plate, anything he does as a hitter is just a bonus.
It’s crazy (at least to me) that the dude isn’t even 30 yet… I feel like he should be closer to 35… I guess that’s what happens when you debut in the bigs at 21…
Barry Larkin > Ozzie Smith
He has logged a shitload of innings behind the plate though
It seems like La Russa rode him pretty hard the past few years.
Something like a .750 OPS seems like a reasonable expectation for him offensively (pretty close to the Bill James projection of .734 in your other FanPost) – better than his entire career average but not quite as impressive as last year.
by BTown Birds fan on Feb 3, 2012 4:10 PM EST up reply actions
would like to see some substance to the argument that the reds defense is significantly better than the cards'
basically because, I don’t know how good the stats say the reds defense is… would be nice to see that.
VEL starts Tuesday
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 5, 2012 11:59 PM EST reply actions
Defensive metrics aren't all that reliable...
It’s just really difficult to quantify defense.
Having said, here’s what the metrics say.
Last year, as a team the Reds defense post a UZR of 43.8 compared to the Cardinals UZR of -29.8.
In terms of DRS, “Defensive Runs Saves,” the Reds were best in the NL with a DRS of 54 while the Cards DRS was -14.
Again, I wouldn’t put a ton of stock in defensive metrics, but I think it’s fair to say the Reds had a very good defense last year while the Cardinals were below average.
Barry Larkin > Ozzie Smith
Fair enough
Should be much closer without theriot and schu as Tom s points out above. Im not familiar with your ss, who is he?
VEL starts Tuesday
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 6, 2012 1:47 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
Zack Cozart
He won the job last year around the All Star break but had a season ending injury shortly thereafter.
Strong defender, will be a huge upgrade over Renteria both offensively and defensively. All scouting reports rate him as a solid-to-good defensive SS with an average bat. He has some decent power, which should translate well give GABP is a hitter’s paradise.
Barry Larkin > Ozzie Smith
by AC Slider on Feb 6, 2012 3:27 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
cool post, and thanks for the nice discussion topic- sorry i didn't see this until now.
are Reds ZiPS projections not out yet? i’d use the ZiPS for this comparison- and I will join in people calling for you to use FIP or xFIP (although i like FIP better) instead of ERA.
i thought James projections were pretty well known to be less accurate than others- CFIC did a great FanPost on that here
mumble mumble Peter Bourjos mumble mumble
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