FanPost

End of the Year Analysis of my pre-season predictions

C – Yadier Molina

Prediction: .289/.343/.411 - 7.4% BB rate, 8.8% K rate, .332 wOBA, .298 BABIP, and .122 ISO

40 game Actual: .301/.352/.511 – 6.1% BB rate, 9.5% K rate, .379 wOBA, .304 BABIP, and .211 ISO

81 game Actual: .309/.360/.509 - 6.8% BB rate, 9.9% K rate, .377 wOBA, .307 BABIP, and .201 ISO

120 game Actual: .317/.367/.507 - 6.5% BB rate, 10.2% K rate, .377 wOBA, .323 BABIP, and .190 ISO

Season Actual: .315/.373/.501 - 8.0% BB rate, 9.8% K rate, .375 wOBA, .316 BABIP, .186 ISO

My Grade: B-

Explanation: I discounted Yadi's offense a bit, I guess. I had his walk rate close, but not as good as it was. I had his BABIP close, but not as good as it was. I had nothing else very close listed here. He surpassed in every category (by quite a bit) except for striking out more often than I thought he would. I'll take that for the marked gains elsewhere, though. I had Yadi set at 3.2 WAR for the year - his fWAR was 6.5. I missed that by a TON!

C – Tony Cruz

Prediction: .217/.269/.311 - 6.3% BB rate, 20.0% K rate, .259 wOBA, .262 BABIP, and .093 ISO

40 game Actual: .133/.133/.167 – 0.0% BB rate, 20.0% K rate, .131 wOBA, .167 BABIP, and .033 ISO

81 game Actual: .196/.196/.304 - 0.0% BB rate, 12.5% K rate, .205 wOBA, .208 BABIP, .107 ISO

120 game Actual: .226/.240/.355 - 2.1% BB rate, 13.5% K rate, .248 wOBA, .250 BABIP, .129 ISO

Season Actual: .254/.267/.365 - 2.3% BB rate, 14.5% K rate, .272 wOBA, .282 BABIP, .111 ISO

My Grade: B-

Explanation: Tony Cruz had a higher average and slugging that I had predicted for him, but because the OBP was slightly below, his wOBA was very close. His walk rate and K rate were both lower than I thought they would be, but his BABIP and ISO a bit higher. He finished with 0.2 fWAR, whereas I had him predicted at 0.3 WAR. Pretty close there.

1B – Lance Berkman

Prediction: .280/.396/.499 - 16.0% BB rate, 16.5% K rate, .390 wOBA, .301 BABIP, and .219 ISO

40 game Actual: .333/.429/.571 – 12.2% BB rate, 22.0% K rate, .490 wOBA, .400 BABIP, .392 ISO

81 game Actual: .333/.429/.571 – 12.2% BB rate, 22.0% K rate, .490 wOBA, .400 BABIP, .392 ISO

120 game Actual: .267/.389/.467 - 14.4% BB rate, 18.9% K rate, .368 wOBA, .321 BABIP, .200 ISO

Season Actual: .259/.381/.444 - 14.4% BB rate, 19.6% K rate, .354 wOBA, .317 BABIP, .185 ISO

Grade: Pass

Explanation: Berkman was fairly close to what I had predicted. He started out way better, then tried to come back from injuries multiple times too early and dropped to slightly below by the time it was all said and done. I'm putting this one (with only 97 PAs to his name) as a PASS on the Pass/Fail scale. He finished with 0.4 fWAR, whereas I had him predicted at 5.2 WAR. I also had Berkman at 550 PAs.

1B – Matt Carpenter

Prediction: .240/.325/.349 - 10.5% BB rate, 16.5% K rate, .305 wOBA, .277 BABIP, .109 ISO

40 game Actual: .283/.348/.505 – 8.9% BB rate, 21.4% K rate, .362 wOBA, .338 BABIP, .222 ISO

81 game Actual: .289/.352/.500 - 7.6% BB rate, 21.4% K rate, .359 wOBA, .351 BABIP, .211 ISO

120 game Actual: .311/.382/.503 - 9.5% BB rate, 19.1% K rate, .376 wOBA, .373 BABIP, .192 ISO

Season Actual: .294/.365/.463 - 10.0% BB rate, 18.5% K rate, .355 wOBA, .346 BABIP, .169 ISO

Grade: C+

Explanation: Carpenter's BB and K rates closed in nicely on what I had predicted, by the end of the year. With a little bit higher BABIP help and power than I thought he would have, he was one of the most pleasant surprises in STL this year. He finished with 1.6 fWAR, whereas I had him predicted at 0.0 WAR. Whoops.

1B/OF – Allen Craig

Prediction: .282/.338/.483 - 7.5% BB rate, 17.0% K rate, .352 wOBA, .304 BABIP, .202 ISO

40 game Actual: .373/.424/.765 – 10.2% BB rate, 22.0% K rate, .490 wOBA, .400 BABIP, .392 ISO

81 game Actual: .314/.385/.635 - 10.6% BB rate, 20.7% K rate, .426 wOBA, .330 BABIP, .321 ISO

120 game Actual: .305/.366/.574 - 9.0% BB rate, 19.5% K rate, .396 wOBA, .333 BABIP, .268 ISO

Season Actual: .307/.354/.522 - 7.2% BB rate, 17.3% K rate, .374 wOBA, .334 BABIP, .215 ISO

Grade: B+

Explanation: Craig moved ever closer to what I had predicted for him but still outpaced it by quite a bit. It looked to me like he became less and less patient (read: NOT less disciplined) at the plate throughout the year (thus the walk rate dropping, but the K rate dropping as well. He did not do nearly as well as when he was more patient earlier in the year. I'll take a 3.4% higher K rate (at the halfway point) for a .144 jump in OPS. He finished with 3.1 fWAR, whereas I had him predicted at 3.0 WAR. Man, that was good.

2B – Tyler Greene

Prediction: .248/.324/.391 - 8.4% BB rate, 25.2% K rate, .317 wOBA, .316 BABIP, .142 ISO

40 game Actual: .227/.301/.427 – 8.4% BB rate, 27.7% K rate, .325 wOBA, .286 BABIP, .200 ISO

81 game Actual: .229/.288/.382 - 7.0% BB rate, 27.5% K rate, .296 wOBA, .302 BABIP, .153 ISO

Traded

Grade: N/A

2B – Daniel Descalso

Prediction: .251/.305/.340 - 7.5% BB rate, 13.5% K rate, .288 wOBA, .280 BABIP, and .089 ISO

40 game Actual: .203/.304/.348 – 11.3% BB rate, 28.8% K rate, .289 wOBA, .289 BABIP, and .145 ISO

81 game Actual: .227/.318/.341 - 10.8% BB rate, 22.7% K rate, .288 wOBA, .289 BABIP, and .114 ISO

120 game Actual: .230/.308/.327 - 9.1% BB rate, 18.2% K rate, .279 wOBA, .278 BABIP, .097 ISO

Season Actual: .227/.303/.324 - 8.7% BB rate, 19.5% K rate, .278 wOBA, .279 BABIP, .096 ISO

Grade: A-

Explanation: Descalso is what we thought he was...(Thanks, Dennis Green) He finished with 0.5 fWAR, whereas I had him predicted at 0.3 WAR.

2B – Skip Schumaker

Prediction: .280/.338/.357 - 7.8% BB rate, 12.3% K rate, .313 wOBA, .314 BABIP, and .077 ISO

40 game Actual: .314/.375/.412 – 8.9% BB rate, 14.3% K rate, .339 wOBA, .372 BABIP, and .098 ISO

81 game Actual: .283/.353/.396 - 10.0% BB rate, 15.0% K rate, .324 wOBA, .337 BABIP, and .113 ISO

120 game Actual: .313/.387/.420 - 10.9% BB rate, 13.9% K rate, .350 wOBA, .369 BABIP, .108 ISO

Season Actual: .276/.339/.368 - 8.9% BB rate, 16.4% K rate, .310 wOBA, .332 BABIP, .092 ISO

Grade: A

Explanation: Schumaker used the final 42 games of the year to slide straight into home on this prediction - unfortunately, this "sliding into home" is not nearly as productive as sliding into actual home plate. He finished with 1.1 fWAR, whereas I had him predicted at 1.4 WAR. Schu was hurt for part of the year.

SS – Rafael Furcal

Prediction: .263/.328/.390 - 8.6% BB rate, 12.2% K rate, .318 wOBA, .282 BABIP, .127 ISO

40 game Actual: .351/.410/.474 – 9.1% BB rate, 10.3% K rate, .394 wOBA, .382 BABIP, .123 ISO

81 game Actual: .273/.341/.367 - 9.1% BB rate, 10.5% K rate, .315 wOBA, .296 BABIP, .093 ISO

120 game Actual: .269/.335/.356 - 9.0% BB rate, 10.5% K rate, .308 wOBA, .293 BABIP, .087 ISO

Season Actual: .264/.325/.346 - 8.3% BB rate, 10.7% K rate, .298 wOBA, .289 BABIP, .082 ISO

Grade: B-

Explanation: Last time, I wrote "Rafael Furcal is just now starting to hit again." Then, he went and got hurt again. His numbers dropped slightly, then he received no more PAs. Yuck. He finished with 1.2 fWAR, whereas I had him predicted at 4.0 WAR. This was my BIG MISS in the opposite direction of Yadi. Although he had injuries, he was not on pace for these totals.

3B – David Freese

Prediction: .308/.365/.472 - 7.3% BB rate, 20.8% K rate, .365 wOBA, .368 BABIP, and .164 ISO

40 game Actual: .266/.327/.482 – 7.8% BB rate, 22.9% K rate, .351 wOBA, .299 BABIP, and .216 ISO

81 game Actual: .286/.334/.479 - 6.6% BB rate, 24.8% K rate, .348 wOBA, .347 BABIP, .193 ISO

120 game Actual: .300/.368/.479 - 9.0% BB rate, 22.1% K rate, .364 wOBA, .361 BABIP, .179 ISO

Season Actual: .293/.372/.467 - 10.1% BB rate, 21.5% K rate, .365 wOBA, .352 BABIP, .174 ISO

Grade: A

Explanation: Wowsers! Now, that's prognostication! Although, I do have to note that his BB rate and K rate are (combined) much better than I thought they would be. He finished with 4.1 fWAR, whereas I had him predicted at 5.6 WAR. I was a bit low, but I had him worth a bit more dWAR than he ended up accumulating.

LF – Matt Holliday

Prediction: .309/.392/.539 - 10.9% BB rate, 16.0% K rate, .401 wOBA, .336 BABIP, and .230 ISO

40 game Actual: .269/.337/.488 – 9.6% BB rate, 19.1% K rate, .355 wOBA, .288 BABIP, and .219 ISO

81 game Actual: .313/.395/.523 - 11.8% BB rate, 17.3% K rate, .392 wOBA, .348 BABIP, .210 ISO

120 game Actual: .306/.385/.527 - 10.7% BB rate, 18.4% K rate, .389 wOBA, .340 BABIP, .221 ISO

Season Actual: .295/.379/.497 - 10.9% BB rate, 19.2% K rate, .378 wOBA, .337 BABIP, .202 ISO

Grade: B+

Explanation: Holliday fell off throughout the course of the last half of the year. I'm sure, as always in baseball, there were some nagging injuries. Not to make excuses for the guy, because he just flat out did not hit as well in the second half as the first half. Unfortunately, that took down my Grade from an A- at the 3/4 pole to a B+. He finished with 5.1 fWAR, whereas I had him predicted at 7.2 WAR. My numbers may have been a bit high, but I also had him worth .023 more wOBA in 650 PAs.

CF – Jon Jay

Prediction: .281/.332/.400 - 6.7% BB rate, 14.7% K rate, .321 wOBA, .311 BABIP, and .119 ISO

40 game Actual: .343/.395/.438 – 6.0% BB rate, 9.4% K rate, .370 wOBA, .370 BABIP, and .095 ISO

81 game Actual: .326/.387/.411 - 7.0% BB rate, 12.7% K rate, .360 wOBA, .370 BABIP, .085 ISO

120 game Actual: .304/.388/.407 - 8.9% BB rate, 13.1% K rate, .357 wOBA, .347 BABIP, .103 ISO

Season Actual: .305/.373/.400 - 6.8% BB rate, 14.1% K rate, .341 wOBA, .355 BABIP, .095 ISO

Grade: B

Explanation: Jay did a great job this year. I had his slugging, BB rate and K rate basically pegged. Despite having a lower ISO, he thrived again on BABIP, which rose his AVG, OBP, and wOBA to unthought of highs. He finished with 4.1 fWAR, whereas I had him predicted at 3.2 WAR.

RF – Carlos Beltran

Prediction: .295/.380/.505 - 12.0% BB rate, 14.4% K rate, .383 wOBA, .318 BABIP, and .210 ISO

40 game Actual: .298/.403/.634 – 13.6% BB rate, 21.4% K rate, .443 wOBA, .306 BABIP, and .336 ISO

81 game Actual: .304/.394/.565 - 12.7% BB rate, 17.4% K rate, .400 wOBA, .315 BABIP, and .261 ISO

120 game Actual: .278/.347/.532 - 9.5% BB rate, 19.7% K rate, .367 wOBA, .293 BABIP, and .254 ISO

Season Actual: .269/.346/.495 - 10.5% BB rate, 20.0% K rate, .355 wOBA, .291 BABIP, and .227 ISO

Grade: B

Carlos got back to taking some walks, but his ISO seriously dropped off near the end of the year and his BABIP/AVG dropped as well. He finished with 3.6 fWAR, whereas I had him predicted at 4.2 WAR. Without that late season slump, he might have had it.

OF – Shane Robinson

Prediction: .242/.290/.363 - 6.0% BB rate, 10.0% K rate, .287 wOBA, .247 BABIP, and .121 ISO

40 game Actual: .259/.306/.345 – 6.5% BB rate, 22.6% K rate, .288 wOBA, .326 BABIP, and .086 ISO

81 game Actual: .252/.295/.341 - 6.1% BB rate, 18.9% K rate, .276 wOBA, .299 BABIP, .089 ISO

120 game Actual: .257/.311/.346 - 7.4% BB rate, 18.2% K rate, .286 wOBA, .306 BABIP, and .088 ISO

Season Actual: .253/.309/.355 - 7.7% BB rate, 17.7% K rate, .290 wOBA, .295 BABIP, and .102 ISO

Grade: B+

Explanation: Shane Robinson is also who we thought he was. His ISO wasn't as high as I had expected. He walked at a higher rate, but struck out at a higher rate than I thought. I did not picture him being as much of a slap hitter as he is - of course, I didn't know he was built like Daniel Descalso, either. He finished with 1.0 fWAR, whereas I had him predicted at 0.2 WAR.

As far as pitchers go, I will list them by IP/GS, ERA, WHIP, H/9, K:BB, K/9, BB/9, HR/9, FIP

SP – Adam Wainwright

Prediction: 6.429 IP/GS, 2.60 ERA, 1.122 WHIP, 7.8 H/9, 3.43 K:BB, 8.1 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9, 3.11 FIP

40 game Actual: 5.458 IP/GS, 5.77 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 10.51 H/9, 2.50 K:BB, 8.24 K/9, 3.30 BB/9, 1.44 HR/9, 4.39 FIP

81 game Actual: 6.042 IP/GS, 4.75 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 9.50 H/9, 3.25 K:BB, 8.47 K/9, 2.61 BB/9, 0.93 HR/9, 3.46 FIP

120 game Actual: 6.306 IP/GS, 3.87 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 8.74 H/9, 3.84 K:BB, 8.44 K/9, 2.20 BB/9, 0.71 HR/9, 3.06 FIP

Season Actual: 6.208 IP/GS, 3.94 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 8.88 H/9, 3.54 K:BB, 8.34 K/9, 2.36 BB/9, 0.68 HR/9, 3.10 FIP

Grade: A+

Explanation: Waino's statistics fell off a little over the last 42 games, but his FIP and K:BB landed VERY close to perfect. He finished with 4.4 fWAR, whereas I had him predicted at 4.9 WAR. I just had him throwing a few more innings, is all.

SP – Jaime Garcia

Prediction: 6.061 IP/GS, 3.29 ERA, 1.325 WHIP, 9.1 H/9, 2.60 K:BB, 7.4 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.39 FIP

40 game Actual: 6.417 IP/GS, 3.68 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 10.52 H/9, 2.57 K:BB, 6.31 K/9, 2.45 BB/9, 0.18 HR/9, 2.64 FIP

81 game Actual: 6.030 IP/GS, 4.48 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 10.58 H/9, 2.68 K:BB, 6.92 K/9, 2.58 BB/9, 0.27 HR/9, 2.78 FIP

120 game Actual: ditto

Season Actual: 6.083 IP/GS, 3.92 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 10.06 H/9, 3.27 K:BB, 7.25 K/9, 2.22 BB/9, 0.52 HR/9, 2.97 FIP

Grade: B

Explanation: Jaime Garcia ended throwing about the amount of innings I would have expected were I to know he was going to make 20 starts. His ERA was slightly worse, but his FIP was much better than I had expected. His WHIP and K/9 were nearly right on, but his K:BB was helped by an unforseen low in BB rate. To keep his WHIP on track, however, that meant a higher H/9 - thus the higher ERA, most likely. He finished with 2.9 fWAR, whereas I had him predicted at 2.1 WAR. Garcia's going down with an injury just knocked him lower.

SP – Kyle Lohse

Prediction: 6.100 IP/GS, 4.23 ERA, 1.328 WHIP, 9.5 H/9, 2.27 K:BB, 5.5 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9, 4.05 FIP

40 game Actual: 6.25 IP/GS, 2.70 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 8.1 H/9, 4.00 K:BB, 5.76 K/9, 1.44 BB/9, 0.72 HR/9, 3.33 FIP

81 game Actual: 6.43 IP/GS, 2.80 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 8.48 H/9, 3.32 K:BB, 5.19 K/9, 1.56 BB/9, 0.73 HR/9, 3.71 FIP

120 game Actual: 6.48 IP/GS, 2.61 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 8.22 H/9, 3.16 K:BB, 5.61 K/9, 1.78 BB/9, 0.67 HR/9, 3.48 FIP

Season Actual: 6.394 IP/GS, 2.86 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 8.19 H/9, 3.76 K:BB, 6.10 K/9, 1.62 BB/9, 0.81 HR/9, 3.51 FIP

Grade: C-

Explanation: Lohse pitched like a boss this year. He just kept getting better as the year went on, basically. I truly went from worried about offering him arbitration (because he might accept it and we'd be stuck with him) to worried that we are simply going to offer him arbitration because we want the draft pick (and he won't sign.) My predictions for him next year (after two great seasons) will be slightly higher, I presume. He finished with 3.6 fWAR, whereas I had him predicted at 0.7 WAR. Thank goodness I was wrong here.

SP - Jake Westbrook

Prediction: 5.654 IP/GS, 4.41 ERA, 1.435 WHIP, 9.6 H/9, 1.61 K:BB, 5.3 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.25 FIP

40 game Actual: 6.542 IP/GS, 2.58 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 8.77 H/9, 2.62 K:BB, 5.85 K/9, 2.24 BB/9, 0.52 HR/9, 3.22 FIP

81 game Actual: 6.188 IP/GS, 3.91 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 9.73 H/9, 2.50 K:BB, 5.91 K/9, 2.36 BB/9, 0.73 HR/9, 3.65 FIP

120 game Actual: 6.431 IP/GS, 3.50 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 9.16 H/9, 2.32 K:BB, 5.54 K/9, 2.39 BB/9, 0.58 HR/9, 3.60 FIP

Season Actual: 6.238 IP/GS, 3.97 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 9.84 H/9, 2.04 K:BB, 5.46 K/9, 2.68 BB/9, 0.62 HR/9, 3.80 FIP

Grade: A-

Explanation: Jake basically pitched how I thought he would, but got quite a bump by going later into games (nearly a full inning longer into games than I thought) and by lowering his walk rate severly (cutting it by 20% off of my expectations). Other than that, he was exactly who I predicted. He finished with 2.3 fWAR, whereas I had him predicted at 0.6 WAR. (And here)

SP – Lance Lynn

Prediction: 5.000 IP/GS, 3.67 ERA, 1.328 WHIP, 8.7 H/9, 2.47 K:BB, 8.0 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9, 3.52 FIP

40 game Actual: 6.333 IP/GS, 2.31 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 6.22 H/9, 3.06 K:BB, 8.70 K/9, 2.84 BB/9, 0.53 HR/9, 2.81 FIP

81 game Actual: 6.063 IP/GS, 3.62 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 8.07 H/9, 2.88 K:BB, 9.09 K/9, 3.15 BB/9, 0.84 HR/9, 3.43 FIP

120 game Actual: 5.931 IP/GS, 3.73 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 8.35 H/9, 2.70 K:BB, 9.04 K/9, 3.35 BB/9, 0.82 HR/9, 3.54 FIP

Season Actual: 5.828 IP/GS (plus 7 innings in relief), 3.78 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 8.59 H/9, 2.81 K:BB, 9.20 K/9, 3.27 BB/9, 0.82 HR/9, 3.49 FIP

Grade: A+

Explanation: That's as good as it gets, I believe. I was off by like 3% or so total. Woohoo! He finished with 2.9 fWAR, whereas I had him predicted at 2.1 WAR. That's what happens when you throw MORE innings than I predict.

SP - Joe Kelly

Late Prediction: 6.000 IP/GS, 5.13 ERA, 1.986 WHIP, 12.75 H/9, 1.34 K:BB, 6.875 K/9, 5.125 BB/9, 0.625 HR/9, 4.26 FIP

120 game Actual: 5.72 IP/GS, 3.41 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 9.83 H/9, 1.96 K:BB, 5.90 K/9, 3.01 BB/9, 0.79 HR/9, 4.01 FIP

Season Actual: 5.708 IP/GS (plus 15 2/3 innings in relief), 3.53 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 9.42 H/9, 2.08 K:BB, 6.31 K/9, 3.03 BB/9, 0.84 HR/9, 4.00 FIP

Grade: D

Explanation: Kelly would have far outpitched what I would have predicted had I predicted the moment he came up to the majors. The prediction at that point would have been better than what I would have predicted before the season. He has been a bright spot and I he shined in the bullpen both at the end of the regular season and in the playoffs.

RP – Mitchell Boggs

Prediction: 3.80 ERA, 1.408 WHIP, 9.1 H/9, 2.00 K:BB, 7.1 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.70 FIP

40 game Actual: 2.70 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 8.10 H/9, 2.71 K:BB, 10.26 K/9, 3.78 BB/9, 0.00 HR/9, 2.13 FIP

81 game Actual: 2.02 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 7.32 H/9, 3.00 K:BB, 6.81 K/9, 2.27 BB/9, 0.50 HR/9, 3.21 FIP

120 game Actual: 2.13 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 7.20 H/9, 3.07 K:BB, 7.04 K/9, 2.29 BB/9, 0.65 HR/9, 3.41 FIP

Season Actual: 2.21 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 6.87 H/9, 2.76 K:BB, 7.12 K/9, 2.58 BB/9, 0.61 HR/9, 3.42 FIP

Grade: C

Explanation: Boggs continued to far out pitch how I thought he would this year. I think that everyone believed he could do what he did, but nobody had seen it at the major league level as of yet.

RP – Fernando Salas

Prediction: 2.92 ERA, 1.065 WHIP, 6.8 H/9, 3.38 K:BB, 9.5 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.19 FIP

40 game Actual: 5.52 ERA, 1.91 WHIP, 11.66 H/9, 2.22 K:BB, 12.27 K/9, 5.52 BB/9, 0.61 HR/9, 2.97 FIP

81 game Actual: 5.60 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, 10.54 H/9, 1.88 K:BB, 9.88 K/9, 5.27 BB/9, 0.66 HR/9, 3.58 FIP

120 game Actual: 4.30 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 8.59 H/9, 2.19 K:BB, 9.41 K/9, 4.30 BB/9, 0.61 HR/9, 3.39 FIP

Season Actual: 4.30 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 8.59 H/9, 2.22 K:BB, 9.20 K/9, 4.14 BB/9, 0.77 HR/9, 3.59 FIP

Grade: C-

Explanation: The exact opposite of what happened to Boggs happened here. We knew Salas was capable of this drop off, but did not expect it to come this year.

RP – Jason Motte

Prediction: 2.63 ERA, 1.077 WHIP, 7.1 H/9, 3.32 K:BB, 8.7 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9, 2.92 FIP

40 game Actual: 2.30 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 5.74 H/9, 4.50 K:BB, 10.34 K/9, 2.30 BB/9, 1.15 HR/9, 3.10 FIP

81 game Actual: 3.25 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 5.75 H/9, 3.00 K:BB, 9.00 K/9, 3.00 BB/9, 1.25 HR/9, 3.96 FIP

120 game Actual: 2.79 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 6.10 H/9, 3.93 K:BB, 10.28 K/9, 2.61 BB/9, 1.22 HR/9, 3.56 FIP

Season Actual: 2.75 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 6.13 H/9, 5.06 K:BB, 10.75 K/9, 2.13 BB/9, 1.13 HR/9, 3.12 FIP

Grade: B+

Explanation: Motte finished the year with an incredible mix of a higher K rate than his already high rate throughout the year and a lower BB rate than his already expected 2.61 from the 3/4 point in the season. His K:BB rose over 1 point in the final 1/4 of the year, dropping his FIP to close to levels which I had predicted.

RP – Eduardo Sanchez

Prediction: 2.55 ERA, 1.117 WHIP, 6.0 H/9, 2.74 K:BB, 11.1 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, 0.5 HR/9, 2.71 FIP

81 game Actual: 6.60 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 6.60 H/9, 1.00 K:BB, 7.80 K/9, 7.80 BB/9, 1.20 HR/9, 5.87 FIP

120 game Actual: ditto

Season Actual: ditto

Grade: F

Explanation: Sanchez got sent down because he was struggling so badly. We'll see him again in September if he can do okay in the minors for a bit longer.

RP - Victor Marte

Not predicted, now gone.

Grade: N/A

RP – Marc Rzepczynski

Prediction: 3.92 ERA, 1.387 WHIP, 8.4 H/9, 2.14 K:BB, 8.7 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9, 3.65 FIP

40 game Actual: 2.45 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 6.14 H/9, 3.00 K:BB, 5.52 K/9, 1.84 BB/9, 1.23 HR/9, 4.13 FIP

81 game Actual: 5.86 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 11.06 H/9, 2.00 K:BB, 5.86 K/9, 2.93 BB/9, 1.95 HR/9, 5.56 FIP

120 game Actual: 4.93 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 8.92 H/9, 1.73 K:BB, 6.10 K/9, 3.52 BB/9, 1.64 HR/9, 5.29 FIP

Season Actual: 4.24 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 8.87 H/9, 1.94 K:BB, 6.36 K/9, 3.28 BB/9, 1.35 HR/9, 4.72 FIP

Grade: C+/B-

Explanation: I had the ERA, WHIP, H/9, K:BB all close. He could not strike people out to save his life this year, but lowered his walk rate to balance out the K:BB a bit. He allowed double the homers I would have expected. All of that lead to a ridiculous FIP - that dropped off a lot from the midway point of the year.

RP – Kyle McClellan

Prediction: 3.05 ERA, 1.246 WHIP, 7.9 H/9, 1.96 K:BB, 6.5 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.04 FIP

40 game Actual: 5.30 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 10.51 H/9, 2.50 K:BB, 8.24 K/9, 3.30 BB/9, 1.44 HR/9, 4.39 FIP

Injured for remainder of season.

Grade: Incomplete

RP - Sam Freeman

Prediction: 3.50 ERA, 1.611 WHIP, 9.0 H/9, 1.18 K:BB, 6.5 K/9, 5.5 BB/9, 1.0 HR/9, 5.01 FIP

81 game Actual: 6.00 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 7.5 H/9, 1.43 K:BB, 7.50 K/9, 5.25 BB/9, 1.50 HR/9, 5.57 FIP

Minors for last 1/4 of year.

Grade: B+

RP - Maikel Cleto

Prediction: 5.00 ERA, 1.611 WHIP, 10.0 H/9, 1.67 K:BB, 7.5 K/9, 4.5 BB/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.46 FIP

81 game Actual: 5.14 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 14.14 H/9, 11.00 K:BB, 14.14 K/9, 1.29 BB/9, 3.86 HR/9, 6.35 FIP

120 game Actual: 7.00 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 13.00 H/9, 7.50 K:BB, 15.00 K/9, 2.00 BB/9, 4.00 HR/9, 6.54 FIP

Well, Cleto threw 2 more innings. He was a 2 outcome pitcher - he either gave up a homer or struck a guy out - basically.

Grade: incomplete, 9 IP

I ended up being fairly close on a lot of players. I'll tweak the formula a bit and try again next year.

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