Dave Duncan & the First Pitch Strike

Morris did have that great splitter – so good it frequently got away from the catcher.

But you are approaching this from a batter perspective and sure if it’s a good pitch swing away, as you may well not get another as you mentioned earlier. So for the same reason a pitcher should attempt to get a 1st pitch strike the batter should approach with the same knowledge, and attempt to make the most of it.

bgh’s article and the theory it’s discussing is if you follow this approach and have the capability to throw effective pitches in the strike zone with consistency it will result in better outcomes for the defense

“that less than 8 percent of first-pitch strikes turn into base hits.”

And once you get that 1st pitch strike, the batters batting average in that PA drops considerably

If the average count after a first pitch strike is 3-4 pitchers, then yes, I would argue one of them is more likely to be fatter than the first pitch.

This depends on how fat the first pitch is an how good the pitcher is. I’m done with this.

of always or never swinging at certain counts

game situations also matter
need a ground ball to right as a minimum, or fly ball
give the pitcher a chance to give you one you can succeed with

I didn’t really have anybody specific in mind, but I had a vague sense that maybe VEB was tiring of certain speculative talk… was I off base in that? I could be imagining it.

Well we do, because that’s definitely the worse position on our team (besides 5th starter), but there is no one available in free agency who would be an upgrade at second. Besides Descalso and Greene project to be roughly average overall, especially if they are platooned, so really I’m fine with second base going into the season.

A 3 WAR starter who will take a 1 year 10 million dollar contract? Those guys are pretty rare. Edwin Jackson is also a 3 WAR starter, and he’s looking a 4 year 50 million dollar contract or something else ridiculous.

Next year we have a lot coming off the books, and we won’t have that many holes, assuming the starting pitching fills itself out from the minors. Aybar is the only guy I would really want to sing next year.

As was your “trading duncan for cain” one last thread. Darvish will cost 100 million, Madson will cost 30-40. Oswalt will cost 10 and for 1 year. Much different scenario.

The Cardinals had 207 million in revenue last year, and their payroll was half of that. Revenue was 195 million the year before. I’m sure DeWitt is raking in huge profits every year, so he obviously can afford to bump payroll up 10 million for one year.

I personally don’t care how much Oswalt increases revenue, but assuming that’s what DeWitt cares about, you can make the argument that adding Oswalt increases revenue to the 2012 club. He probably adds 10% to our playoff odds. The number we used during the Holliday trade was that a playoff birth on average is worth 25 million to the club in revenue. I forget where we got that number, so I could be wrong there. Either way 10% of 25 is 2.5 – so on that analysis Oswalt isn’t worth it. But I assume DeWitt cares about more than just revenue, or else he’d just take the Loria route and spend 25 million in payroll every year (the Marlins had 143 million in revenue last year according to Forbes).

So I dunno, depending on how much DeWitt values profits and WS odds, you can argue either way as to Oswalts value, but I don’t think it’s a ridiculous “not going to happen” scenario.

This argument started yesterday when I said that I wanted to upgrade the rotation and trade for a 2B with the logic being that we are susceptible to an injury to our big 2 and that 2B is our weakest position. Those aren’t facts, but generally accepted logic on this board. Twisting that to say that we should sign Darvish and Madsen is not the point either I or VEP are making.

The point as VEP has made quite eloquently is that this $10 million for Oswalt has huge leverage in ensuring we make the playoffs. It won’t always be the case that the additional $10 million would do that — we have a set of circumstances where that signing would give us a high percentage chance of making the playoffs with a team that could easily repeat.

or Bring up Shelby?

I meant paying $12MM for a pitcher unlikely to ever top 3.0 WAR again.

Lohse had one season of 3.0-WAR. We were paying Lohse on a level where it suggested that we either expected the free agent market for pitchers to be truly insane, that we thought Lohse was 2008 good, or a little of both. It was a bad contract the day it was signed and has gotten worse.

Jackson has had three straight years as good as Lohse’s 2008 or better. Nonetheless, I’d rather not give him a five-year deal. He’s a good pitcher and probably worth it. It is still bizarre to me that Jackson has accumulated 11.2 Fangraphs WAR over the last seasons (3.6, 3.8, 3.8) and has pitched for five teams over that timespan.

Pineda is a legit starter with three above average pitches. He was worth 3.5 wins last year and struck out over a batter an inning. Martinez is as likely to wind up in the bullpen as he is the starting rotation.

As for my motives, we’re just discussing ways to improve the team. This is one way.

1) Fine. In your hypothetical world, you are correct. The analogy to the Skip signing is incredibly dubious. You are arguing about something that is unlikely and hasn’t happened. The Skip signing was very plausible and did happen. One of these arguments is operating under the premise of how the Cardinals have and will continue to operate. The other (read: yours) is arguing under a premise that must first convince the reader that the implausible is plausible.

2) The fact that you don’t care again points out that you just don’t get the importance of the Cardinals valuing the spirit of a NTC as much as the letter of the agreement. Players talk. These things matter.

3) People have argued that “the trade” in 2011 was upwards of a 2 WAR upgrade between all it’s components. It’s not as if the Cardinals lack for trade pieces right now. It’s entirely plausible that they’ll make a midseason acquisition of impact. More importantly, the Cardinals are already (on paper) the team to beat as you have said. Why spend that 10M now when you could wait and see how much you might really need to spend later. As WMT points out, the club has always been run as a business and from what I can see Oswalt is a nice but unnecessary upgrade at this point in time.