players and money in 2012
by tom s. on Sep 3, 2011 5:45 AM EDT
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looking forward at our plans for next year, money is going to be a big deal, and a substantial limiting factor.
here's a collection of the information on the guys currently on the roster who may figure into the plans for next year. estimates are my best estimates. where a player seems likely to receive a FA offer i've put an estimation in brackets. on the last line of each section i've put in my best guess about how much gets spent in each group.
|
Starting Pitching |
Contract |
Option |
Arbitration Eligible |
Club Control |
|
$11.875m |
||||
|
$9m (club will invoke) |
||||
|
$8.5m |
||||
|
$3.25m |
||||
|
Chris Carpenter |
$15m($1m buyout) |
|||
|
~$450k |
||||
|
~$450k |
||||
|
Best guess: |
$ 23.625m |
$24m (or $10m) |
$900k |
the starting rotation is a terrible place to start, yet i'm starting there. we are committed (by contract and our intent to take up wainwright's option) to pay out more than $34m just on our starting rotation -- $48m if we take up chris carpenter's option, and a tad less than that if we renegotiate it to a 2-3 season deal, maybe $44m.
the next bit is a little better.
|
Relief Pitching |
Contract |
Option |
Arbitration Eligible |
Club Control |
|
~$1m |
||||
|
~$450k |
||||
|
~$450k |
||||
|
~$450k |
||||
|
$3.5m ($750k) |
||||
|
$2-3m |
||||
|
$4m |
||||
|
Best guess: |
$750k |
$3-4m |
~$1.35m |
the bullpen could be a very cheap $5-6m item; even cheaper if we non-tender mcclellan, or trade him after the arbitration. note that i gave up on mcclellan in the rotation; you can put him there if you like. also, i am willing to be corrected on motte being arb eligible for 2012, though $600k doesn't make a big hole in this plan one way or another.
the infield is where our biggest questions lie:
|
Infielders |
Contract |
Option |
Arbitration Eligible |
Club Control |
|
[~$24-26m] |
||||
|
~$3.5m |
||||
|
~$450k |
||||
|
~$450k |
||||
|
[$4m] |
$12m |
|||
|
[$1.5m] |
||||
|
~$4m |
||||
|
~$450k |
||||
|
Best guess: |
$28-$30m |
$0 |
$0 |
$1.35m |
there's a whole bunch of questions here. pujols is the most obvious one. i suspect we re-sign him and to something like the AAV shown above. his 2012 salary may be less than that, but i'm guessing at AAV just because. i'm speculating we resign furcal as well, and go cheap elsewhere. you could see almost infinite variation here; especially if albert is not re-signed, you could see significant money being spent to improve 2B or SS or both.
the catcher corps is almost suspense-free. we'll exercise our option on yadi and have tony cruz as backup.
|
Catchers |
Contract |
Option |
Arbitration Eligible |
Club Control |
|
$7m ($750k) |
||||
|
[$1m] |
||||
|
~$450k |
||||
|
~$450k |
||||
|
Best guess: |
$7m |
~$450k |
the outfield has a big question mark in the form of lance berkman. if he is not re-signed, or if he takes over first from albert, there's definitely room for a further acquisition to round center or right field out.
|
Outfielders |
Contract |
Option |
Arbitration Eligible |
Club Control |
|
$17m |
||||
|
[$11m] |
||||
|
~$450k |
||||
|
~$450k |
||||
|
~$450k |
||||
|
Best guess: |
$28m |
~$900k |
so, we're contractually committed to providing more than $40.5m of salary next year. add in wainwright, and you're up against $50m. add in a further $39-$41m to land albert, berkman, and furcal, then a further $7m to renew yadi, and you're pushing $100m. another $5m to retain our league min guys and motte, and you're busting a budget.
want to beef up the infield? you're going to have to either significantly expand payroll or forego a carpenter signing/option exercise, or find some other explanation of how to cut payroll significantly.
there aren't really any final answers proposed here, just a general notation of what we're facing for the purposes of discussion.
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Comments
The Pirates took 2 of 4 from them just last week
The problem isn’t that they don’t lose to teams that aren’t as good as them. It’s that our Cardinals DON’T BEAT THE TEAMS WE SHOULD BEAT. This has been the story since 2006 — we finish .500 or better against teams with .500 or better records, but continue to shoot ourselves in the foot by have .500 or worse records against teams that struggle to win 45% of their games.
Like most Little League teams, we play to the level of our competition. For all the preaching about being “professional” by our clubhouse staff, this is the most immature behavior I can think of.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
I think $2M of Holliday's contract is deferred, so his number should be $15M
Per Cots $2M isn’t a huge deal, but it might be the difference in bringing back McClellan or Furcal. Motte is arb eligible, and I think you’re probably spot on with what his number will be.
Theriot will not be back, but I’m not sure that the club doesn’t try to work out something with Schumaker, as much as we’d like them not to. I get the feeling that he will be back and be starting in 2012, as the club will use him for one more season as a bridge to (hopefully) Kolton Wong grabbing the reins in 2013. I don’t see us cutting him to let Tyler Greene or Nick Punto start at 2B, no matter how happy that would make all of VEB or the aforementioned pitching staff.
I also think there’s another option that hasn’t been discussed much regarding the pitching staff: Buying out Carp and signing Edwin Jackson. The issues at hand are these:
- You really can’t offer Carpenter arbitration because he would probably accept. This route would be forgoing extra draft selections in the 2012 draft, which continues to look better all the time. I’m ok with this, some others probably aren’t.
- I would expect Jackson to get something in the AAV range of what Kyle Lohse got from us after 2008, except that he’s probably worth twice what Lohse is. There aren’t any #1 starters in this FA class but there are quite a few 2’s, 3’s, and 4’s (Buerhle, Harang, Kuroda, Maholm, Vazquez, Wilson, Young). I would put Jackson at or near the top of that class. He’s been traded 4 different times, so there can’t be a lot of faith in him as a #2 starter, even though he’s pretty much put up #2 starter value through his arbitration years.
- Jackson is a much better bet to stay healthy and pitch well for the next 3-5 seasons than Chris Carpenter is.
- Jackson is more likely to be worth better than 3.5 WAR in any of the next 2 seasons than Chris Carpenter is.
If you were running the Cardinals and you could get Edwin Jackson for 4Y$46M ($10M, $10M, $12M, $14M) or Carpenter for 3Y$30M ($10M each year), which one would you choose? I’d have a hard time not going for Jackson.
Or you could just decline Carp’s option, offer arb to Jackson, let them both leave, and then sign Hiroki Kuroda and Mark Buerhle to Jake Westbrook’s contract. Which might be the best option of all, actually.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
by fourstick on Sep 3, 2011 9:20 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
For the purposes of the luxury tax, yes
That’s really the only place it would count towards our current payroll number. The MLBPA even considers it deferred and updated the present value of the contract to reflect this.
We’re not getting anywhere near the lux tax threshold, so I don’t see any reason to put that extra $2M on here. The actual exercise seems to be the amount of money being spent by ownership next season, which would not count the $2M being deferred to Holliday. So for this analysis I think it should be left off, since we’ll no doubt have to include it when it is being paid out in 15 years or so.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
The expense should be booked during the time period...
when service is rendered, not when cash goes out the door. The expense is about half the stated amount after discounting, so he’s getting about $16 million for 2012.
Again
You seem to be missing the point here. This is NOT an accounting exercise as to what gets expensed when.
The analysis is trying to determine how much physical money that ownership will be paying out next year to help determine what the roster might look like on opening day 2012.
From this perspective, we’re paying Holliday $15M next season. The reason for ownership deferring those dollars was to make the year-to-year dollars paid less, in order for the team to use that money elsewhere. They have promised to pay that money at a later date, which means it is an expense, but not one that is paid within the stated period.
So for the purpose of this analysis, his number should be $15M as that is what he will receive in payments from the team for next season.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
No...
we want the actual expense, not cash flow. Ownership needs to budget for salary whenever it’s paid. The team incurs Holliday’s salary expense when he takes the field in 2012. The fact that it’s paid in the future is taken into account when we discount.
Jim Edmonds’ 07-08 extension involved deferred money paid through 2019. Is that in the matrix? No of course not – it was accounted for in 07-08.
This analysis is interested only in cash flow
By your standards, the fact that Fred Wilpon has to pay Bobby Bonilla NOW from a contract signed a decade ago doesn’t have any impact on whether he signs Jose Reyes to an extension. Of course it matters.
Fancy accounting principles don’t apply here. Matt Holliday will be paid $15M in salary for 2012. He will then receive deferred payments for the rest later on, following the agreed schedule. Regardless of when they are accounted for, that is when they will be paid.
If Bill DeWitt deferred ALL of the 2012 salaries to 2015, by your method, the club in 2015 would not be affected by the fact that those salaries are paid in that period. It would make a significant difference in the amount of money the club could spend in 2015. Similarly, if DeWitt is incapable of paying Matt Holliday in 2027, Matt Holliday is $1.6M poorer in 2027, even though that was accounted for in 2012.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
i dont think the card's
need to follow GAAP – its a privately held organization and they can write their own rules, pretty much. no need for uniformity for investors
Beefing up the infield?
You’ve already got Furcal figured in. Forgetting 1st base for a moment, we’ll have Freese, Descalso, Greene, and Craig plus a callup (Carpenter?) if you like. Seems OK to me.
stupid game, lost a bet with a Reds fan...
Now I have to fly a Reds flag for week at the old farmstead for losing the season series. Curse you Cardinals! I blame Tony.
Theriot = what my dog poops out...
by arthropodtodd on Sep 3, 2011 10:12 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
It could be worse.
They could offer Skip and Eriot.
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Second base….I’ve played second base, how hard can it be? -TLR
Also, Dave Concepcion.
Committing $8 million to those two...
would be nuts. Theriot isn’t even allowed to play his position. No way he’s tendered a contract.
8th? 9th? inning
Seeing that ball hit right at Theriot and pop out of his glove resulting in a botched double play that should have ended the inning followed by a 3 run homer made me want to turn the game off.
Then Holliday hit a homer in the bottom of the 9th that should have tied the game. Oh well.
Johnson City gets to the Appy League finals.
Colby in TOR: .216/.239/.398 3HR 22K/3BB 8/25 - And on the DL
by The Continental on Sep 3, 2011 10:51 AM EDT reply actions
Cleto's back.
CardsInsider St. Louis Cardinals
#stlcards recall RHP Maikel Cleto from Memphis (AAA). He was 5-3, 4.29 ERA, .218 opp. BA for Redbirds. Has 2 relief app. for STL in 2011.
Colby in TOR: .216/.239/.398 3HR 22K/3BB 8/25 - And on the DL
by The Continental on Sep 3, 2011 11:05 AM EDT reply actions
what's the deal with that?
there’s no way he’s ready for MLers. he’s pitched at 4 different levels this year after being a fringe prospect at best with 6org. why?
To show the media jackasses, the statheads, and all the other doubters that they did well when they traded Ryan...
Cardinals magic number: 33
Brewers magic number: 16
2.2 WAR
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Second base….I’ve played second base, how hard can it be? -TLR
Also, Dave Concepcion.
He's been the third best starter in Memphis this year, behind Lynn and Dickson
And he’s on the 40man. Don’t see what’s so unexpected here.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Sep 3, 2011 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions
the 40 man thing makes it feasible
being the 3rd best starter out of a weak crop of starters doesn’t make it obvious. his control is suspect at best. we don’t need another starter, and any pitcher we call up is going straight to the pen.
is the 40 man full?
I don't mind him coming up, but he's not going to be a savior.
It’s good to get a longer look at him in a reliever setting because he has typical reliever “stuff.”
Saying that he has pitched at 4 different levels this year is not and indictment of him, it says a lot OF him.
just seems a little much for someone
who wasn’t considered much of anything by the team we got him from, and since he’s not exactly the next coming of pedro i think he’s in the majors too soon. but i guess that’s more a complaint left over from when they brought him up earlier this year. arb clocks already running now, guess he’ll be riding the tyler greene express for a year or two now
I'm curious why you keep saying he's a fringe prospect or who wasn't considered "much of anything" by the Mariners
For example, he was in the Mariners top 10 prospects according to Fangraphs in 2010. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/seattle-mariners-top-10-prospects/
I consider fringe guys those who are grade C or guys outside the top 25 or 30. Someone who is still young and throws 100mph is not a fringe guy, IMO.
He’s not ready for full time ML service, but as a Sept. call-up who’s already on the 40man, he’s fine.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Sep 3, 2011 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I've played around with the figures quite a bit, tom
and, I get a total of around $115m., with signing Pujols for $25, picking up Carp’s option, and signing Furcal for $4-5m. That does not include signing Berkman. I’ve also included Schu but only for $2 m. I don’t think they’ll offer Schu arb this year; rather, they hopefully will give him a take-it or leave-it offer appropriate for a part-time player. In any case, if the Cards sign Pujols, I don’t see any way they can also sign Berkman and pick up Carp’s option – even rolling the option into a lower average value but more years doesn’t help significantly. The only other place to cut that would free up significant dollars is to trade Westbrook, which could happen (since Lohse has a no-trade clause). It will be an interesting off-season financially.
If we sign Pujols
there are really two scenarios:
- Payroll goes to near $120M for the next couple of seasons
- Payroll stays where it is, and we have little depth, fewer veteran players, and play a lot of untested young players who are cheap.
I’m betting on #1. Because? TLR.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Actually, next year is the real problem financially
(I think lboros made that point 2-3 years ago.) Both Lohse’s and Westbrook’s contracts are up after next year. Even if we keep one of them, I can’t imagine keeping both. Instead, we all hope Shelby will be ready in 2013. In 2013, Garcia and Waino will both go up a few million and the only new player arb eligible is Freese, who we may not keep (with Cox on the horizon). So payroll could possibly come down a little in 2013 as we shed Lohse or Westy’s contract (or both). BTW, both Motte and Boggs are arb eligible according to Cots. Perhaps Boggs isn’t any more with his trip to Memphis this year (since tom still has him under team control)?
And, even a payroll of $120 m. will not be enough to sign Pujols, Furcal, Carp and Berkman unless some big pruning is done elsewhere. More like $125 m. (unless a number of players settle for below-market contracts) But, you might be right in your general view that Tony may insist on signing everyone as a condition of staying.
an old roommate, you say?
mmmhmmmm…………
Johnny Gomes could not be reached for comment
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 3, 2011 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions
it seems like we're off by aboiut $5m.
Are you assuming that we sign both skip and mcclellan? Because I thought one of the things the exercise showed was how tight the budget is and why it would be a terrible idea to pay 2 guys $5-6m to be replacement value.
For instance, some people have been talking about eating half westrbrook’s salary and trading him. All that benefit would be eaten up (and then some if we sign those two).
"the less I think of it, the more certain I am." beckett
by tom s. on Sep 3, 2011 1:28 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I don't disagree
but I think we’re kidding ourselves that Tony won’t push for both K-Mac and Skip to be signed – I think the former is almost 100% – I also think they will offer Skip a contract at a lower amount than he earned this year (but still a few million) and then not sign him if he wants more
This is the problem with the Cards' version of
“stars and scrubs” – they forgo stars by paying too much for scrubs.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Sep 3, 2011 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I was at about 80-90% that they will sign Skip
then he pitched. The grittiness and “team player” aspect of it was too much for this manager and FO to ignore….he’s getting a contract.
My favorite words are goodbye, and my favorite color is red
business wise i don't think it is smart to
pay apu 25 for 6-7 yrs
or to pick up carp’s option
sentimentally yes, but business wise, neither is a good bet
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
...to DFA TLR
While this is true
In your 2012 scenario, we will presumably have holes at C (Molina would be a FA) and SS (assuming Furcal on a one year deal) and possibly one in the rotation, possibly two depending on where Miller is at that point.
Lohse and Westbrook (who still has an option for 2012, remember) combined make just north of $20M. I can easily see us spending $20M on a C, SS, and SP combined, and it will be north of that if we fill those spots with good players.
Greene is out of options after 2011, so he either is on the roster for all of next season or he goes elsewhere. Kozma just plain sucks and hopefully Ryan Jackson can hit at least the Brendan Ryan level of putrid at the MLB level. I don’t think Stanley or Anderson are future catchers.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
The 1.6 oWAR Brendan Ryan?
"Go crazy, folks, go crazy! It's a home run, and the Cardinals have won the game, by the score of 3 to 2, on a home run by the Wizard! Go crazy!" - Jack Buck (my earliest baseball memories)
by WizardofOz1982 on Sep 5, 2011 8:11 PM EDT up reply actions
I did the arithmetic while I was pretty tired, so let's try this:
Omitting albert, berkman, carp, furcal, and mcclellan (and using round numbers):
We will likely pay:
$34m for the rotation
$3m for the bullpen
$7.5m for the catchers
$1.75m for the infield
$18.5 for the outfield
That gives me $64.75m
Then you can mix and match as you choose.
So, albert and berkman would give us about $100m in payroll. Albert and carp only would give us more like $104. Albert and carp and furcal gives me $108. Albert and carp and furcal and berkman gives me almost $120m.
"the less I think of it, the more certain I am." beckett
by tom s. on Sep 3, 2011 1:17 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
my only quibble with your figures is that the bullpen
will cost more than $3m. if the Cards keep K-Mac – probably more like $6m. ($2.5 for K-Mac, perhaps $1.38 for Motte, that is, what K-Mac got paid this year – and 5 more pitchers at somewhat over $400 th. per year – (and neither of us is including keeping Rhodes, which we all know Tony will want to do)
otherwise, our figures are pretty close (I’m also including $850 th. for Cox, which is what he gets this year for the contract he signed but that could be put in the minor-league budget) – and I do include Schu for about $2 m.
and I think the numbers cited in your post make it clear
that keeping McClellan isn’t worth it. That $2.5 is way better spent elsewhere.
My favorite words are goodbye, and my favorite color is red
I dunno, he was basically replacement level over
130 innings. Can’t we get that production out of a league-minimum slaray or near to it?
My favorite words are goodbye, and my favorite color is red
I suppose...
seems like a nice 6th starter, but you probably don’t have to pay that much, especially considering Scrabble and Lynn are better.
Cardinals magic number: 33
Brewers magic number: 16
Line up.
CardsInsider St. Louis Cardinals
STL Lineup vs CIN (9/3): Furcal, ss; Jay, cf; Pujols, 1b; Holliday, lf; Berkman, rf; Freese, 3b; Schumaker, 2b; Laird, c; Garcia, lhp.
Colby in TOR: .216/.239/.398 3HR 22K/3BB 8/25 - And on the DL
...
BJRains B.J. Rains
Cardinals lineup is pretty much the same as last few games but Molina is out with a sore left calf. Gerald Laird starts behind the plate.
Colby in TOR: .216/.239/.398 3HR 22K/3BB 8/25 - And on the DL
by The Continental on Sep 3, 2011 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Got my beerstein
Last time I was in an all inclusive ticket area Jaime had his nearly perfect game. Maybe I can get a repeat
bollocks
by SecondHalfMatt on Sep 3, 2011 2:47 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Carp's last 2 starts against 2 teams he has dominated
historically is really disturbing. I know we are talking SSS but the NL Central at first blush seems to be hitting average wise Albert Pujols 2011. That’s not the Chris Carpenter I know. He’s been 5-5 this year with 4 ND against the NL Central. If you want a big indicator of why the Cardinals are 8.5 games back, look no further than a guy whose amassed a record of 44-20 in 98 starts vs the NL Central ending up with a .500 record thus far against them and some truly uncompetitive games.
Just frustrating to see him lose such a dominant edge.
a lot of those were hard-luck losses
and I’m wondering if Duncan’s absence has affected his prep.
would've.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
if you want to talk big indicators
just the games blown by about three guys in the bullpen will land you in big indicator land.
would've.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
That may be true
however last night and his last start vs Pittsburgh have been big eggs he has laid out on the mound. Although last Saturday wouldn’t have mattered with that run support.
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 3, 2011 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Serious Question
Have Pujols, Holliday, Berkman had any sequences this year where all three got hits?
"Gibson drilled the Rookie for having the impertinence to hit a long foul ball off of him"
Thanks
I guess all this other bs is getting to me.
"Gibson drilled the Rookie for having the impertinence to hit a long foul ball off of him"
I wonder if there's anywhere online where there is a simple search
to find something like that query?
So, anybody want to continue the Shakespeare thread from yesterday?
And thus the Beuhrle-gig of time brings in his revenges.
Ceterum censeo La Russa ire necesse est.
Shelby Miller
allowed just 2 HRs all year, according to Leach. is he corresponding HR rate something that should regress at this level or is it more a product of skill?
HR rate is generally considered to be a function of the #of flyballs a pitcher allows.
Approx 10% of a players FBs turn into HRs. (That’s the basis for xFIP.) So players that allow more flyballs will allow more HRs.
Beware: Velociraptors may be present.
HR rate is going to regress to what Azru said pretty hard
But his K/BB and groundball rates are much more likely to stay at the same level.
Secretary of WAR and defense (Tyler Greene Fanclub). PUT TYLER ON THE GREENE.
How can the team look forward at all anymore?
Tony will even run top prospects out of town. he will dictate who gets drafted. Luhnow will select certain players, which will probably be good to great selections. then Larussa will parse out who he thinks is worthwhile, without any (or not enough) consultation or reseearch on which players will be good, or should be considered someone to not disregard (in an authoritarian sense I suppose). If he were more reasonable about which players he played, and when, the Cards would be much better off. At least he is at least average and able to navigate the postseason. the regular season, however, seems to be a great mystery to him over the past few years. I wonder what he will philosophize next, utilizing his not-so-good logistics.
low in the zone
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 4, 2011 4:52 AM EDT reply actions
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