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Playing Guaranteed-Moneyball with the 2012 Cardinals

It's still possible that the Cardinals will make the playoffs in 2011, but it's not plausible enough that I want to talk about it as though I'm expecting something. If this is it, I'm glad the Cardinals came back for the most fun I (and presumably we) (and presumably they) have had all season here in September.

The 2012 Cardinals, then-they look a lot like this model. A little less than $77 million is currently devoted to four-fifths of the starting rotation-Kyle Lohse, Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, and Jake Westbrook, in that order, along with Yadier Molina to call the pitches-and Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman, so the pitching staff and the protection for a notably absent bat are both set for the moment.

Combine all that with the money it's going to take to sign Albert Pujols, who has been charitable enough to push his numbers most of the way back up after a human (and presumably cheaper) first half, and the 2012 Cardinals are going to look like the 2011 Cardinals with Adam Wainwright instead of Kedwin McJackson, which is-well, it looks like that team would compete in the Wild Card, at least judging by the last few weeks.

A full season from Rafael Furcal would be a significant upgrade at shortstop, and a signing seems plausible enough that I'll talk about it as though I'm expecting something, but a full season from Rafael Furcal would also be a significant upgrade for Rafael Furcal. Aside from that the Cardinals are going to be stuck looking for cheap solutions at the positions where they're weak.

The bad news: This team doesn't have a lot of obvious hole. The bench-a half-season of Jon Jay, Daniel Descalso or David Freese depending on whether you're talking about technical or practical roles, Allen Craig's 145 OPS+, Nick Punto's 113 OPS+, even Gerald Laird's 82 OPS+-has been better-than-expected to a man. Theriot and Patterson are below replacement level, but not a long way below replacement level.

The cheapest place for this team to improve is the bullpen, where for just -$4 million they'll be able to leave behind the highly leveraged, sub-replacement stylings of the Veteran Relievers. The bullpen's ERA this year is 3.76, against a league average of 3.56, which adds up to something like 10 runs over 450 innings (if my calculator watch is behaving.)

Remove those 10 runs from Ryan Franklin's 27 innings and his ERA is still 5.20.

The 2012 Cardinals (with Pujols) are a difficult team to make into a 100-win powerhouse, but it'll require less late-season overachieving to reach 86. 

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I was just reading through some Moneyball related stuff

And came across this.

I think the worst thing that happened during that era derived from the growing tension between the front office and the field level. A young man named Doug Jennings, who had outstanding minor-league translations (especially in OBP) was put on the 25-man roster. Tony La Russa apparently took the position that you can force me to have him, but you can’t force me to play him. Jennings was on the big club’s roster for parts of four seasons, and never accomplished anything; but it is hard to accomplish anything when in four seasons you get 323 plate appearances. A precious few men can still be productive with scant and irregular play, but most cannot (that’s an analytic fact). The needless barriers between modern and old-time cost Doug Jennings a career—probably a pretty good career.

by Merry CRasmus on Sep 24, 2011 1:42 AM EDT reply actions   3 recs

Whats moneyball

Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter | Gas House Graphs

by mysterui on Sep 24, 2011 1:48 AM EDT up reply actions  

Is this a game

Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter | Gas House Graphs

by mysterui on Sep 24, 2011 1:48 AM EDT up reply actions  

its what holliday does when he's bored

He wads up a lot of his money and then plays badminton with it….because he’s matt freaking holliday

by CarpIsMyManCrush on Sep 24, 2011 1:52 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

its what holliday does when he's bored

He wads up a lot of his money and then plays badminton with it….because he’s matt freaking holliday

by CarpIsMyManCrush on Sep 24, 2011 1:52 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Lance Berkman is Moneyball

"I got to get Dr. Freeze off my twig right now."-Nyjer Morgan

Articles I Wrote about Beisbol. | Twitta | Googer+

by flipthebird15 on Sep 24, 2011 2:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

Jack Cust is Moneyball

"I got to get Dr. Freeze off my twig right now."-Nyjer Morgan

Articles I Wrote about Beisbol. | Twitta | Googer+

by flipthebird15 on Sep 24, 2011 2:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

Tom Brady is Moneyball

"I got to get Dr. Freeze off my twig right now."-Nyjer Morgan

Articles I Wrote about Beisbol. | Twitta | Googer+

by flipthebird15 on Sep 24, 2011 2:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

he pretty much bitchslapped Bill James in that

Johnny Gomes could not be reached for comment
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.

by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 24, 2011 3:03 AM EDT up reply actions  

reply fail. this was supposed to go under the second post

Johnny Gomes could not be reached for comment
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.

by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 24, 2011 4:06 AM EDT up reply actions  

is it the consensus here that we will not re-sign BOTH Pu and Berk?

that the signing of one of them would make it prohibitive to also sign the other?

by the Tewk on Sep 24, 2011 3:08 AM EDT reply actions  

Whew

I thought Berkman resigned for $12 Billion…..making Alberts return improbable..

by Iowa on Sep 24, 2011 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions  

Well

Supposedly the $12 million Berkman will cost next year doesn’t matter, it’s the $25 million when Pujols is 40 that is the big deal.

Never mind thanks to inflation, it will be about $17 million on today’s dollars. (I wish I were using hyperbole here, but food prices have gone up about 10% the last 3 years, so figure more of that…)

by DiscoJer on Sep 24, 2011 3:42 AM EDT up reply actions  

everybody clinched, by the way.

would've.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Sep 24, 2011 3:23 AM EDT reply actions  

yep. my buttcheeks still haven't relaxed from that loss.

Johnny Gomes could not be reached for comment
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.

by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 24, 2011 3:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'm sorry, but

“Theriot and Patterson are below replacement level, but not a long way below replacement level.”

If this is true, then replacement level has no meaning, or at least “replacement” means someone off the street, not a generic AAA minor leaguer. Patterson is the worst player in baseball. Theriot isn’t much better.

by DiscoJer on Sep 24, 2011 3:40 AM EDT reply actions  

Man, talk about a choke job

We blow a 5 run lead in the ninth in a game where a win would put us within a game of the playoffs, and then lose to the Cubs the next day. I’m glad I haven’t been on VEB for this.

Secretary of WAR and defense (Tyler Greene Fanclub). PUT TYLER ON THE GREENE.

by vivaelpujols on Sep 24, 2011 5:20 AM EDT reply actions  

Few sports fans love their team as much, while generating such invective for it as Cubs fans.

Here’s a fun take-down of the Cubs season from Yahoo sports (also, handily, linked in the sidebar).

Highlights:

Tyler Colvin (…) Your OPS plus is 42. Forty-two! Juan Pierre’s is 83. If you were twice as good as you are now, you’d still be as useless as Juan Pierre. Juan makes outs for a living. The good news is, you’ve now played in 217 big league games, that’s enough to qualify for the MLB dental plan. Do everyone a favor. Use it.

Dempster (…) I’m not sure how Zambrano gets an unending stream of crap thrown at him, while you don’t pitch any better and people act like you’re Roy Halladay around here. You’re just as overpaid as Zambrano is, but you never get any crap. It’s not like you ruined the 2008 season by walking seven guys in game one of the playoffs or anything. You should be very proud of extending your streak of allowing more hits than the season before to four, and the fact that your strikeout-to-walk ratio continues to get worse every year. But you just keep kissing up to the media and maybe nobody will notice. On the bright side you didn’t break anything trying to get to the handshake line after a game this year. So there’s that.
Starlin Castro (…). I almost excused you from this today. Almost. You son, are good at baseball. You were born to hit. You were also born to turn routine grounders into balls that rattle around the first base dugout, but you can work on that. You’re going to get 200 hits and you’re only 21. (…) The reason I can’t let you out is because that one Sunday night you let your mind wander for three full innings and you committed the worst sin any player … nay, any human can make. You made Bobby Valentine’s observations correct. I can’t forgive that of anyone.

#FireTLR

by The Continental on Sep 24, 2011 11:21 AM EDT reply actions  

I'm over Rafael Furcal...

I want us to either sign Pujols and play the youngsters (Greene, Descalso, Ryan Jackson, whatever) – OR – I want us to trade for a real starting shortstop. I think that Furcal has shown us that his arm strength is still there, but not much else is.

by stlfan on Sep 24, 2011 2:10 PM EDT reply actions  

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