Why Edwin Jackson Makes Sense

by JWO on Jul 27, 2011 2:23 PM EDT

Ok, boys and girls. I've been scanning the interwebs, and noticing a lot of angst regarding the recent Colby Rasmus trade. In the interest of rational dialogue, I thought I'd post a brief explanation of why this trade makes some degree of sense and could work out. Feel free to flame if you wish, but lets try to be civil, shall we?

Right of the bat, I'll acknowledge that Edwin Jackson's career numbers are fairly pedestrian. His career ERA is 4.53. He has a career 55-58 record. His career WHIP is 1.48. These are not the numbers of a world-beater. But consider what Jackson does bring to the club this year:

- Innings Eater. Jackson has started 19 games this season. He has gone for six or more innings in 14 of those contests. He has never pitched fewer than four innings. Jackson in the rotation will reduce the bullpen's workload by about 40-50 innings for the rest of the season. That's not chopped liver, and could pay big dividends.

- Low Home Run Rate. Jackson has given up only eight diners in 121 innings this year. His opponents are not beating him with the long ball.

- A Deceptive Record. Jackson has gotten pretty shabby run support for many of his outings. In four of his seven losses, his team scored zero runs. In another two, his team scored one run. He didn't always pitch well, but his team frequently was doing little to bail him out.

- An Upgrade. I like McClellan, but Jackson is a reasonable upgrade. He's going to go deeper into games. And he's going to pitch with more consistency. He's probably not better than a #3 starter, but should still be enough to keep the Cardinals ahead in the central.

- The Colby Factor. I'm drifting into the land of opinion, but I can only assume this is an example of addition by subtraction. The Cards were frustrated with Colby's randomness, his insistence on working with his father, and some clubhouse surliness. The Cardinals do have other outfield options that include Jay and Craig (when he returns) that could match Rasmus's production. So in theory, this isn't a sinker of a deal.

All of that said, I'm still not convinced this was the best offer we could get. I would have been a lot more content with Shields or Hellickson from the Rays, for example. But as angry as people are, we don't know the full matrix of decisions the Cardinals are working from. I can only assume (hope?) this fits into the long-term plan of the organization. What do you guys think?

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Comments

Thanks for the level-headed analysis

Testicle-exploding shit storms, to date: T.E.S.S. '08, T.E.S.S. '09, T.E.S.S. '10

by dan on Jul 27, 2011 2:34 PM EDT reply actions

Is he a.....

Type A or Type B free agent after this year?

by Stanley1 on Jul 27, 2011 3:11 PM EDT reply actions

B right now - last AL SP on the list, though...close to off

Dotel is a type B, but 2 away from A.

by stlfan on Jul 27, 2011 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions

I have been

going over the history and stats of the players involved in this trade and came close to the conclusions you have put forth.
The puzzle I can’t solve is why the inclusion of Patterson (a player I don’t think we need) but from the way the trade went down, you can tell that the Cardinals considered it important to clear dead weight from the 40 man roster but in the end had to take Patterson to help the jays with the same situation.

Also the 3 players to be named later, and/or cash consideration could mean more to the Cards than is revealed at this time.

by ridgesee on Jul 27, 2011 3:55 PM EDT reply actions

To further explain

The Jays could have said " We’ll take these three guys off your roster right now in a trade that is going to look unbalanced for you right now. But here is a pool of players to select from at the end of the year."
might not be but I can hope.

by ridgesee on Jul 27, 2011 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions

I suppose we should reserve judgement...

till the players to be named later have names. Right now this just doesn’t seem like the best we could do for Rasmus.

Jimmy Ballgame for 2011 RFer!!!

by cardzfanbub on Jul 27, 2011 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions

One possible reason

The Cardinals as an organization (Under TLR anyway) seem to have no concept of OBP. Or that it’s a good thing to have a high one.

If you take Patterson’s crappy OBP out of the equation, he looks like a much better player. Just like Craig Paquette.

by DiscoJer on Jul 27, 2011 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm rather torn on this trade

I don’t like it really, but they young bullpen arm seems exciting. Edwin Jackson I think still has some upside; but will he play like he has been lately? his career numbers are not that good. on the other hand, he at one time got mentioned in the same breath has Verlander a few years ago. (as an aside, isn’t it a novelty that the guy who helped invent the phrase Carp Does Not Give A Fuck is now sharing the rotation with Carpenter? might be an interesting first conversation between the two to overhear).

Having a look at how Jackson’s FIP has progressed over the years leaves some hope for a good remainder of the season. it has grown progressively better the last 4 years… all the way from 4.88 in 2008 to 3.86 last year, to 3.21 one as of right now (despite a really bad start to the season if I remember correctly). he’s even had a .333 BABIP against, which perhaps leaves some room for him to do even better this year. I don’t know why but i’ve always thought this guy would turn into a good pitcher.

Dotel is not much of an inclusion, if he keeps up his more recent statistics. in fact, I hope he doesn’t just get plugged in at closer, which I think might just happen. as ridgesee said, I’m left scratching my head over corey patterson… but it’s not like we are getting players like Tallet and Miller. Patterson I guess could be a good pinch runner; danger is if TLR decides to be a nutjob, which he probably will do, and give Patterson too much playing time. he pretty much just takes up a roster spot.

I know the main concern is down the road in this deal… but the Cards have always made deals at the trade deadline, and when they don’t the average fan gets upset. so yeah, this is another reactionary trade, but most are I suppose.

FIRE TONY RASMUS

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 27, 2011 7:12 PM EDT reply actions