Does Yadier Molina Hurt the Cardinals By Being Awesome?
by kindred on Jul 13, 2011 12:02 AM EDT
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PrintIt's generally accepted that in terms of preventing other teams from stealing bases Yadier Molina is one of the best, if not the best, catchers in MLB. Al Hrabosky is fond of saying that Yadi is so good that teams just don't steal on him anymore (and Al's not the only one). Which always made me wonder... Given that base-stealers must be successful at least 75% of the time to benefit their team, is it really a good thing if Yadi's excellence at throwing out stealers prevents teams from running? After all, if teams ran on him more, he'd generate more outs. Perhaps it would be better for the team is Yadi was worse, thus generating more attempts, thus generating more outs.
I had a few hours to kill tonight, so I thought I'd plot some data, all of which comes from Baseball Reference. The first graph shows the percentage of would-be stealers that Yadi has caught in his career, as well as the National League average.
As expected, Yadi has been very good over the course of his career, well better than the league average, although so far this year has been his worst. But has his success had an effect on other teams? In other words, do teams run on Yadi much less than other catchers? This next graph shows the stolen attempts for Yadi (per 162 games) compared to the NL average. (Formulas: (SB+CS)*(162/GP) for Yadi; ((SB/G)+(CS/G))*162 for NL.)
Okay, so teams really don't run on Yadi: he routinely has 50-60 fewer attempts against than the NL average catcher -- or would have, if he played all 162 games. So Yadi has fewer attempts against but more outs per attempt than the average catcher. We might think that the team would benefit if we could maximize the number of outs made (so long as the percentage of caught stealing remains above 25%). How does this translate into outs over the course of a season? (Formulas: CS*(162/GP) for Yadi; (CS/G)*162 for NL. Again this is normalized as if Yadi played in every game.)
The answer is... there's not a huge effect, but Yadi's prodigious ability to catch potential base stealers probably doesn't help the team, and might even hurt it a bit. In four years (2004, 2008, 2009, 2011), Yadi generated fewer outs on the bases than the NL average. In two years (2007, 2010), he generated more. In two years (2005, 2006), he generated almost exactly the same. In no year is the difference all that large. For the stats-minded: I doubt the effect is statistically significant, but in this case a failure to reject the null hypothesis is very interesting, since it contradicts the Hrabosky-esque conventional wisdom. Obviously this is a crude analysis, but often simple stats are the most illustrative.
The broader point that I'm interested in making is that baseball, like all games, is strategic. If a player is really, really good (or bad) at one thing, then other teams will respond by changing their approach to the game in order to neutralize that advantage. Think of NBA teams fouling Shaq intentionally to make him shoot free throws. Or MLB teams walking Barry Bonds 232 times (!) in 2004. In some cases, it might benefit the team if the individual player were a little bit worse, so that their opponents didn't focus so much attention on them.
In other words, Yadi probably hasn't hurt the team with his cannon arm, at least not much. But he hasn't helped the team much either. It would probably be better for the team if he was slightly above average (say, 30-35% caught-stealing rate rather than 40-50%) but not enough for teams to drastically alter their base-running patterns.
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Interesting Argument
But I think you use the wrong metric. While Yadi might generate fewer outs than competing catchers, his higher rate of effectiveness does discourage aggressive baserunners, which likely decreases the number of RISP and in turn runs scored over the course of the game. I don’t have the data to back any of this up, but I think a more interesting comparison might include catchers and RISP. While Yadi may generate fewer outs, I think he probably leaves fewer RISP than the average catcher.
A very good point I think
This data is really interesting, but since it only focuses on caught-stealing outs, it ignores other possible effects that the base stealing pattern might have on the rest of the run prevention game.
The very symbol, the outward and visible expression of the drive, and push, and rush and struggle of the raging, tearing, booming nineteenth century! -- Mark Twain
To really get down in the weeds,
I think one would have to look at run expectancy.
Keeping runners at first base might also lead to more GIDP, as well.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
That's implicitly there...
… both Yadi and the league average are in the zone where the expected value of a SB attempt is negative for the offensive team, using Bill James’ 75% threshold. (I’m not up on the saber lit enough to know whether there’s a more up-to-date number.)
Put it another way. Suppose Yadi threw out 40% of baserunners. All else equal, if Bill James is right the best thing for the Cards would be for every single baserunner to try to run against him.
wat
well, it is an interesting argument. I just don’t think there are a lot of better catchers out there, besides 2-3
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jul 13, 2011 1:15 AM EDT reply actions
This is very interesting
and the graphs are really indicative of how hesitant people are to run on Yadi. Watching him every day I sometimes forget that other teams have opponents attempt stealing nearly twice as often.
I think, though, that this argument isn’t quite complete. Generating outs on the basepaths is valuable, but there’s also a value associated with preventing steals, which Yadi does far better than other catchers (both because he throws out a higher percentage and because they run less often). According to the Book, a steal is worth about .19 runs while a caught stealing is worth – .46 runs (for the team running). So to determine whether Yadi helps or hurts the team by shutting down runners we should look at (- .19*SB)(.46*CS) for him versus the league average.
In his career (2004-present) Yadi has allowed 213 stolen bases while catching 173 men. Meanwhile, the National League as a whole allowed 11083 stolen bases and caught 4287.
Stolen base runs + /-:
Yadi: (-.19*213)(.46*173) = 39.11
NL: (-.19*11083)(.46*4287) = -133.75
So immediately we can see that Yadi is better than average, because the average catcher costs their team runs while Yadi has added considerable value for us: 4 WAR over his career. This still isn’t complete, though because our number for the NL is for all of the catchers, and not the average catcher. To find how Yadi stacks up against the average catcher we’d have to normalize the NL numbers to the Yadi numbers which is actually pretty hard because the fact that Yadi has had fewer opponents run on him is important to the accuracy of the comparison, so we can’t just multiply the NL number by a correction factor like (YadiSB+YadiCS)/(NLSB+NLCS).
I might come back to this later, but I think based on this we can agree that Yadi’s consistent embarrassment of would be runners has helped the team over his career.
by jibbers on Jul 13, 2011 3:36 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I would tend to agree with that conclusion...
… and I know I’m leaving stuff out. Basically I wanted to see how much I could get through while the ASG was on, and this was as far as I got. Originally, I’d wanted to include some other stuff as I mention below.
I’m not really trying to make a point about whether Yadi is better for the team than an average catcher would be. It would take a whole lot of very careful work to persuade me that he isn’t, and that’s not what I’m presenting. (Although it isn’t immediately obvious…)
What I’m really interested in is whether Awesome Yadi is as good for the team as a hypothetical Good Yadi would be, once the deterrent effect is taken into consideration. Since the Bill James rule of thumb is that a SB attempt isn’t worthwhile unless it has a ~ 75% expected success rate, an Awesome Yadi that deters a bunch of steal attempts that would otherwise turn into outs could actually hurt the team, if a hypothetical Good Yadi would still throw out > 25% without deterring anybody.
That’s why I don’t think your +/- works as an apples-to-apples comparison. It needs to be weighted by attempts made per game or something. Your +/- is selecting out all the non-attempts that come from deterrence, and therefore misses all the potential outs (and bases gained by the offensive team) that a Good Yadi would generate. My whole thrust is that those lost potential outs are important too, and they hurt the team. That’s what the third graph is (crudely) trying to establish.
Ideally we could look at outs lost via deterrence versus bases saved via deterred successful steal. There’s an elasticity there waiting to be measured. If I’d had a few more hours I would’ve targeted that. Someone want to pick up the ball?
If you are correct that Yadi does actually cost the team some potential defensive out created (or however you want to put it)
then I guess the final question is whether he makes up for it because of other effect, and how much he could improve his value by having a lower caught stealing ratio, assuming that maybe other teams would start running on him more. Or something? I think I’m a little confused now, it’s not even six in the morning as I type this so my brain is still revving up.
Anyway, I love how you go at something from an unconventional angle with this fanpost. Really interesting stuff to think about. Does this count as some form of baseball game theory?
The very symbol, the outward and visible expression of the drive, and push, and rush and struggle of the raging, tearing, booming nineteenth century! -- Mark Twain
Yeah, game theory motivated this...
… I rely on game theory a decent amount in my research, so I tend to think i strategic terms.
Ugh... this is why I shouldn't do math at 2 AM
In my calculation of the numbers, the two terms should be separated by plus signs. As in:
Yadi: (-.19*213) + (.46*173) = 39.11
NL: (-.19*11083) + (.46*4287) = -133.75
Did you count pickoffs in this?
I don’t know if those go down as caught stealing on B-R or not. Yadi’s also led the league in those many times.
Pickoffs aren't included on B-R...
… so they aren’t in here. I don’t think there’s any way to say that those don’t benefit the team.
pickoffs shouldn't be counted in this analysis
Catcher Pickoffs have nothing to do with the running game (at least in the sense of stolen bases and caught stealings). Catcher pickoffs come on secondary leads, when the base runner is not stealing or attempting to steal. They generate extra outs and their collateral effects would show up in runners going 1st to 3rd and 2nd to home on singles and on 1st to home on doubles. They should not have only a marginal effect on stolen base rates and outs – although that might depend on how teams address the problem. Most, I would think, would respond with shorter secondary leads and/or staying in a neutral position or even leaning back to 1st rather than to second on secondary leads. I suppose some might shorten their initial lead so they can still cheat to second on a secondary lead, however.
I should point out the little observation
the ability of the fielder to catch and tag Yadi’s throw significantly affects his effectiveness. if it’s Albert, it might as well be telepathy. if it’s a dodgy middle infield, well…
would've.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
pitchers
In the running game, the pitcher has a huge effect (often greater than the catcher). That inherently is a confounding variable that makes comparisons between catchers difficult without very large sample sizes, which usually aren’t available for caught stealings.
i like the line of thinkinig
but i think you need to adjust the calculation to account for double plays. a certain number of the CS/162 that Yadi loses are probably “recovered” in terms of a higher DP rate -- ie, they’re outs anyway, but they’re outs on the front end of a DP instead of on a CS.
i agree w/ jibbers above too - a runner at 1B carries less scoring potential than a runner at 2B. i grant your point that a runner at 1B carries MORE scoring potential than a man in the dugout who’s been put out on a CS -- but if you balanced out the plusses and minuses, and made an adjustment for DPs, i suspect the Cards would come out ahead on the deal.
Yeah...
… ideally I could add run expectancy or some other stat to this, as bgh suggested. I don’t think the GIDP effect would be large enough to dominate other stuff, but that’s just a guess.
On what has been a predominately...
groundball staff thru-out Yadi’s career I would tend to think the GIDP effect would be greater than with most teams.
Jimmy Ballgame for 2011 RFer!!!
Is quality of base stealers a problem?
Yadi obviously has a great reputation around the league. Therefore only the best basestealers attempt against him, unduly punishing his CS rate.
Conversely, a bad catcher will have everyone thinking swipe, and would get a lot of free outs this way.
Also, unbalanced schedules could distort the data quite a bit (I would think)
For instance, 3 of the top 4 basestealing teams in the NL (in terms of total SB) in 2010 were in the NL East. I don’t know how you begin to correct for that.
But as you said I don’t think your objective was to get into every little detail – at some point diminishing returns would take over. Excellent idea and work.
Yeah, but it's in my direction...
… if teams are selecting out their poor stealers, then that’s even more evidence that it would be better for the Cards if those teams were running more.
Not sure about the unbalanced schedules. The Cards’ schedule will be the same no matter how many base runners Yadi throws out.
unbalanced schedules matter when you are comparing him to league average.
I agree though it doesn’t matter in terms of run expectancy
Here is a link to my google+ profile.
I agree with Kindred here
if teams are selecting against running on him with guys whose running games are a negative, than that is (inadvertently) a positive for those teams. Ergo, Yadi is hurting the Cards with his arm in those cases. It just depends whether the extra 1B pickoffs and the other advantages that his arm provides (holding runners to shorter leads, making the pitcher feel more comfortable, situational advantages in close games) dwarf that loss; I suspect that they do.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 20, 2011 7:06 AM EDT up reply actions
Keep in mind
that those runners not running also keeps the double play in order as well.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Here's another interesting bit of analysis that I don't have time to do:
Do Dave Duncan coached pitching staffs overall have fewer stolen base attempts (and a lower success rate) than a league average pitching staff?
Stolen bases aren’t stolen off of the catcher, they’re stolen off the pitcher (Case in point? Jordan Walden in the ASG last night). Our pitchers do a very good job of checking runners, varying the timing of their deliveries, and holding runners on. Back in the early 90’s, Duncan and other members of his coaching staff figured out the best way to hold runners by picking the brain of really good base stealers, like Rickey Henderson, about things that they didn’t like to see or things that made them uncomfortable when attempting steals.
I think Molina has a lot to do with keeping runners close on secondary leads with his ability to pick runners off of first base, and that this is something that doesn’t get accounted for a lot: Even with weak armed right fielders like Berkman there aren’t a lot of runners that go first to third on a single to right, and losing two steps of a secondary lead has a lot to do with that — that’s all Molina.
However, I think the lower rate of steals is a combination of Molina’s prowess and the ability of our pitchers to hold runners better than other pitching staffs. This is something I’ve seen Duncan and Marty Mason working on with pitchers at Spring Training before when throwing out of the stretch.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Good points..
I wonder if it could be done by aggregating case by case – ie a pitchers’ steals conceded pre/with/post Duncan. With so many players over so many years, I would think that a dataset could be built where individual catcher effects would be immaterial. Would probably have to adjust for league environment though.
Watching Walden last night clarified one point that needs to be said over and over when coaching pitchers
It doesn’t matter how hard a pitcher can throw or how good the catcher’s throws are, if the pitcher takes forever to release the pitch a fast runner can steal the base fairly easily. Rule of thumb is 1.3 seconds or less for lower levels (not sure what pro coaches teach, but it’s something similar I’d guess) and anything more than that is going to require a slow runner, bad jump, or the runner sliding off the base to nab the baserunner.
"...Or we could make L.A.N.C.E. into a recursive acronym, like, 'Lance: Adam Needs Cartilage from your Elbow." -- Quote by our very own DanUpBaby
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 13, 2011 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Time to home plate is important
but it’s not nearly as important as varying the amount of time you spend between coming set and either releasing a pitch to home plate or throwing over to first base.
Most good base stealers are fast, but they are also keenly aware of a pitcher’s timing in that they nearly always “get a good jump” — i.e. they have an intuition about when a pitcher is going to throw the ball to the plate, so much so that they are sometimes running a split second before the pitcher ever moves towards the plate. I think that Duncan, et al have come up with a very good mechanism for disrupting that timing by varying the time in the set position.
In the case of Walden, yes, he takes a very long time to get to home plate. But if you replay the game, you’ll also notice that his rhythm of coming set and then throwing home is just about the same amount of time each time. Some pitchers will come set, look once, then throw home…and they’ll do that EVERY SINGLE PITCH. Much like tracking betting or raising patterns in poker, good base stealers (and just about anyone now with the advent of video) will pick up on that pattern and exploit it. Greg Maddux thought it was more important for him to stay in his rhythm than to worry about holding runners. Maddux was also one of the easiest pitchers to steal off of during his career. So was Nolan Ryan. They were more concerned about the guy at the plate since, as Maddux put it: “If give up a single and that guy steals second, he’s still not scoring 80% of the time unless I give up another hit”.
They could have had Molina behind the plate and his CS would have gone up in those starts because they were just awful at holding runners on.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
One other comment
I was chatting with a colleague from Canada who used to watch a lot of Expos games recently. He made the claim that in all the years of watching Tim Raines play, he never saw him get a bad jump. He also said that numerous times Raines would fake running or take two steps and stop if he got a bad jump, only to steal the bag on the very next pitch to the plate (usually after 4 or 5 pick-off attempts). He thought this was interesting, so he asked Raines about it one time at a card signing. Raines told him that he would sometimes take a big lead or fake going on a pitch early in a game so that he could see the pitchers move to first, and a lot of times they would throw over there multiple times in a row. Once he saw what he thought to be the pitcher’s “best move”, he would then take an extra half step or full step because he knew how far he could stretch his lead. In the course of this, he also was able to pick up a cue as to when the pitcher was likely to be going home. Hence, he never got a bad jump, and if he did, he was always able to stop after 2 steps and then return to the bag, knowing that he’d get 2-3 throws over to judge it again.
Seems plausible to me. And Raines was one of the best base-stealers of all time in terms of success rate.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Raines should be in the HOF IMO
"...Or we could make L.A.N.C.E. into a recursive acronym, like, 'Lance: Adam Needs Cartilage from your Elbow." -- Quote by our very own DanUpBaby
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 13, 2011 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions
When I played ball many years ago in college
Our pitchers had a system where they would look to the shortstop who would tell them the number of looks they would give to second. Sometimes it would be none, sometimes two, other times one, and it all goes along with what you noted in this comment. There was another system with men on first where sometimes the pitcher would come set for three seconds and then pitch, step off, or pick depending on the signal. It worked fairly well too. It really takes the guys legs out from under him, and if he does decide to steal it won’t be a very good jump at all. I was a kid back in the late 70s and early 80s when guys stole all the time, and back then pitchers didn’t seem to have the foggiest idea that holding a runner was more than just picking over occasionally. Combine that with turf fields and a different philosophy about offense and its no surprise that stolen bases were so high, it was a perfect storm for those type of players.
"...Or we could make L.A.N.C.E. into a recursive acronym, like, 'Lance: Adam Needs Cartilage from your Elbow." -- Quote by our very own DanUpBaby
by redbirdnation8206 on Jul 13, 2011 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions
This was discussed the other day
but I think this is a pretty well-known phenomenon (excellent post though, and rec’d). But Yadi’s arm helps the team in two main ways:
1) By throwing out a lot of base-stealers, he prevents runners taking long leads. Less 1st-to-3rds and less guys scoring from 2nd on singles. Also takes some pressure off the pitcher.
2) Pickoffs at first – 10 or so free outs per year that basically no other catcher makes.
Those things are the real benefit IMO.
Still bitching to contact.
Great post
I’ve wondered about this myself. One thing that I think would have to be factored into the equation is the situational element. I don’t know how you would go about quantifying that exactly, but I have looked at the stolen base leverage index on B-Ref before (under advanced fielding – baserunning), and Yadi ranks very high on the list usually, for obvious reasons. I just went through some of the regular catchers this year that have some length to their careers and marked their career SB leverage and CS leverage.
Name sb lev cs lev
Molina 1.44 1.36
Ruiz 1.39 1.31
Pierzynsk1.33 1.31
Ianetta 1.31 1.41
Suzuki 1.28 1.23
Montero 1.28 1.16
Martin 1.27 1.21
Soto 1.27 1.15
Torrealba 1.26 1.38
McCann 1.25 1.31
Olivo 1.25 1.23
Buck 1.2 1.23
All stolen base opportunities are not created equal. Though the breakeven point is around 75% overall, there are situations where the runner needs to be successful 99% within a game to make it worth it to try, and others that are in the 60’s. Again, I don’t exactly what a tenth or 2 on this metric means, other than that more people are attempting a steal on Yadi when the breakeven point is a lower percentage (close and tight situations), and less often when it is higher.
Think those numbers add a little support your argument though.
by Merry CRasmus on Jul 14, 2011 12:31 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
This is a great point
But I disagree with your conclusion. If these numbers indicate that opposing teams dispurpotionally run on Yadi in high leverage situation, I would think that shows why a slightly less good Yadi would not be more valuable. He might get a few more outs in low leverage situations because teams are more willing to run, but will get fewer outs in high leverage situations (because he isn’t as good). That will result in a few more outs in less valuable situations, but fewer outs and more runners in scoring position in the most important situations that are more likely to determine the outcomes of individual games.
John Buck has only thrown out 25% in his career
And it appears that a result of that is that teams push the envelop, and counterbalance his weakness a bit, by attempting steals in situations that make less sense. In Yadi’s case, it seems runners pick their spots more intelligently than against anyone.
You’d always want the better arm at catcher, but I do buy into Kindred’s thought that the adjustments teams make tends to narrow the gap between the best and worst a bit.
by Merry CRasmus on Jul 14, 2011 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions
happened to Jason Kendall a couple of years back as well
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 14, 2011 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Great post
And a number of great points, ideas for follow up in the comments as well. I think the analysis needs to try to include GIDP, run expectancy (which I’m not a huge fan of, but its some way to try to quantify the value of keeping guys put at 1st), normalizing for the unbalanced schedule and the quality of base stealers attempting to steal (i.e. Yadi generaly throws out 45+% of base stealers and generally those are made up only of the best base stealers in the league), and trying to normalize pitching staffs (which may be very difficult). Even the quality of middle infielders could come into play (I think it’s very arguable that the mostly subpar middle infielders Yadi has had in his career may cost him a runner or two every year). I think most of those factors would add value to “shutting down” the running game.
Honestly, however, I think the real value comes from things that are much more difficult to quantify. A brief list: 1) less “stress” on the defense, 2) added confidence of the pitcher that he does not need to be obsessed with potential base stealers and can focus on the batter, 3) fewer runners breaking to second out of the corner of the pitcher’s eye, 4) forcing teams out of their normal gameplan – causeing them to play ball outside of how they would like to, and 5) other managers calling more sacrifices and hit and runs because they can’t try to steal that base.
A pitcher’s confidence and focus and the other team not getting to do what they want have very nebulous and possibly unquantifiable effects on a game. But, I think you’d be hard pressed to find anyone involved in any sport who doesn’t think having more confidence, more focus, and taking the other team out of what it wants to normally do doesn’t help you win games. Puttin “stress” on a defense might be slightly more quantifiable. I know it sounds like a throw-away term like “grit,” but it really does have an affect (just ask Whitey). When a team is worried about bases being taken for free, it changes the pitcher’s approach to the plate, divides his focus, it can change the way the catcher calls the game with runners on, the manager will end up calling pitch-outs, which can give hitters counts and are simply extra throws the pitcher has to make, and it puts the defense in motion anytime someone runs (middle infielder breaking to the back and centerfielder moving to backup).
The most likely quantifiable theory on my list is the theory that opposing managers would have to call more sacrifices and hit and runs than they would against a lesser catcher. While I don’t completely agree with SABR views of those two plays, I think it’s hard to argue that its better for the defense if the offense tries to sacrifice than if the offense feels they can steal second with a successful rate.
One more point
I forgot to mention, a catcher can’t throw out runners at a high rate and frame pitches on those steal attempts. In fact, as the catcher moves to throwing position, he’ll often block the ump’s view. The more times you throw to second, the more likely you are to lose strike calls for your pitcher.
Win expectancy
That seems like the way to go, since certain runs scored bring a lot more value than others. That run in a close and tight game translates to a much bigger share of a win than others, and is the primary driver for deciding when to run.
Agree on the hard to quantify stuff. I always appreciate these conversations that revolve around the running game – the ones that try to quantify how much value can be created from it. Just as a pure fan, I’d prefer running to have a more prominent place in the game. Maybe because I grew up on the 80’s teams. Not sure.
by Merry CRasmus on Jul 14, 2011 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Kindred has been around a long time and used to post a lot more often.
I was excited to see that he had put together a Fanpost, especially one that is thought- and discussion-provoking.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I've been coming here every day since 2005...
… but stopped posting as much as a) I got busier; b) the site got much less about baseball. When I have something to contribute, I try to. But I don’t have the time to sort through 2,000 animated unicorn gifs most days.
I was going to say
I thought Kindred was basically a regular (?)….
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Jul 20, 2011 7:12 AM EDT up reply actions
My poor math in trying to explain how many runs Yadi gives us for a season
Using the run expectancy chart from 1999-2002
NON STEAL ATTEMPTS
Runner at 1st and 0,1,2 outs average = .592 runs
SUCCESSFUL STEALS
Runner at second and 0,1,2 outs average =.753 runs
UNSUCCESSFUL STEALS
No Runners and 1,2, or 3 outs average = .138
Now we do the players themselves
YADI (normalized to season based on charts)
70 attemps (45% CS) and 55 non-attempts (relative to the league)
Unsuccessful steals + successful steals + non-attempts= (70)(.45)(.138) + (70)(.55)(.753) +55*(.592)
=65.89 runs/162 games
LEAGUE AVERAGE CATCHER
125 attempts (28% CS)
unsuccesful attempts + successful attempts = (125)(.28)(.138) + (125)(.72)(.753)
= 72.6 runs/162 games
Now I know there were a ton of assumptions made here that probably shouldn’t be made if you are trying to find a real good approximation (the biggest being steals occur at equal frequency for all outs and that there are never any other runners on base). But if this is at all accurate then it suggests that yadi is around 6.71 runs allowed below the average for 162 games. I don’t know how to equate that to WAR, or if it’s even significant.
It is pretty awesome that there may be some sweet spot of being a good enough catcher to have a high CS% but not good enough as to develop a reputation that deters people from stealing. So while Yadi might be the best defensive catcher in the league, he may not in fact be the most valuable in terms of defense!?!?!
I Just can't buy it
If I can shut down a team’s running game without affecting my pitchers, I’m doing it. If teams are running, it’s because they think they get an advantage doing so. Now I know there’s a lot of belief that people running baseball teams don’t know anything, but I don’t think they are idiots and are going to be doing something that is noticably a detriment to the team (certainly not on the consistent, pervasive basis that would be necessary for this theory to be valid).
Anecdotally…. does anyone think we lose Sunday’s game against the Pirates with Yadi behind the plate? Laird is a decent to good defensive catcher, and it killed us that he lacked Yadi’s awesomeness.
This doesn't really make a lot of sense.
If he was worse and teams were running on him, he wouldn’t be able to stop some of them and they’d be advancing more runners and probably scoring more runs. The fewer bases runners get, the less likely they will be to cross home plate.
Ole Miss: #1 in partying, mediocre in athletics and academics since 1848.
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