choosing up sides 2011 update

by lboros on Jun 6, 2011 12:28 PM EDT

jeff luhnow will be in charge of his seventh draft for the cards this year, which puts him in rare company. only two guys in club history have made more draft picks: george silvey (a holdover from the branch rickey era who ran the first 10 drafts in club history) and the late great freddy mcalister.

a couple years ago i made a little chart to get a read on luhnow’s effectiveness in the draft, focusing on his first four years at the helm (2005-08); i updated it last year at draft time. here’s the latest iteration:

	2005-08	2001-04	1997-00	1993-96
STARS		dan haren	albert pujols j.d. drew	matt morris
REGULARS	colby rasmus jaime garcia chris perez brett wallace	skip schumaker brendan ryan daric barton kyle mcclellan	adam kennedy yadi molina jack wilson chris duncan coco crisp rick ankiel	placido polanco alan benes braden looper
PART-TIMERS	luke gregerson mitchell boggs jon jay dan descalso allen craig	joe mather brad thompson jason motte anthony reyes b hawksworth	bud smith mike crudale pablo ozuna	eli marrero jay witasick cliff pollitte britt reames chris richard kerry robinson brent butler

see the original post for definitions of the categories.

those 05-08 drafts continue to look very solid. i’d expect at least two more guys to graduate to the "regulars" box, maybe more. at the moment craig, jay and descalso look like the likeliest bets to become major-league regulars someday, but guys like lynn and mortensen (who is currently in the rockies’ rotation) will certainly have chances, and there are bound to be some part-time contributors (and maybe an everyday player) among the group that includes guys such as hamilton, ottavino, greene, and tony cruz. (you could make the case that ty greene has already earned his stripes as a "part-timer"; i still think of him as the type of replacement-level fodder that wouldn’t be missed if he’d never been drafted, but it’s just my opinion.) some of us would argue that bryan anderson still has a chance to become a big leaguer one of these days (for some other team, no doubt). and few would be shocked if a dark horse like kozma, chambers, pham, or broderick ended up having some sort of career. ditto adam reifer, if his rehab goes well. so there’s a lot of potential left in those four draft classes; if even a quarter of it pans out, the 05-08 period will stand out as an extremely productive one.

in addition to comparing favorably with earlier cardinal draft cycles, luhnow’s first four drafts have produced good results relative to the teams he was drafting against. i made a very quick count and found only three teams that have produced more than four everyday players so far out of the 05-08 drafts -- the braves, dbacks, and nats. i also did a quick WAR inventory and found that the aggregate WAR from the cardinals’ 05-08 draftees, through saturday’s games, ranks 8th among the 30 mlb teams, 5th among the nl clubs, and first in the nl central, just ahead of milwaukee.

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The numbers cited at the bottom seem particularly good given the Average Draft Position of the Cards

by OCCardsFan on Jun 6, 2011 3:05 PM EDT reply actions

i was just about to post

about how typically, the cardinals would be drafting between 20-30th in the round, not top ten like the dbacks or nationals

get some runs

by OurSaviorAaronMiles on Jun 6, 2011 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Nice writeup, lb.

Looking at those numbers, it’s exciting to realise the Cardinals’ farm system is currently in better shape than it’s ever been during Luhnow’s tenure, with two of the top 25 prospects in baseball (according to Keith Law, at least), working their way up through the ranks, and a draft philosophy which has paid enormous dividends the past couple seasons.

Or die trying.

by the red baron on Jun 6, 2011 3:10 PM EDT reply actions

This is a great graphic

I think what will eventually really separate the 05-08 box is you will see at least 2 and possibly 3 of those regulars become stars. Law of averages tells you at least one will flame out, or have short lived careers.

Comparing this to the 01-04 regulars who none besides maybe Barton (at one time) ever having a legit shot at stardom. I guess we should be clear on Star, but if Haren is a star, I sure see Garcia and one of Wallace/Rasmus at least matching that level.

by thewizard3 on Jun 6, 2011 3:25 PM EDT reply actions

I think you're significantly underrating how good Dan Haren is.

What’s odd is that I see this all the time. Haren doesn’t get nearly the respect he deserves for just how excellent a pitcher he’s been.

Or die trying.

by the red baron on Jun 6, 2011 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions

I just hate to think about it, personally.

http://fuckyeahnouns.com/alex%20fritz

by hazel on Jun 6, 2011 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Dan Haren

is so amazing. I cried the day he was traded.

Proud to be a member of The Night of the Longest Train Wreck Ever (9/10/09)

by slash2049 on Jun 7, 2011 1:12 AM EDT up reply actions

I completely agree.

Haren’s problem is that he has pitched for the A’s, Diamondbacks, and Angels, all clubs that don’t get a lot of media coverage. Haren has had an excellent career and this season he has been lights-out.

"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."

--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

by bgh on Jun 7, 2011 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions

Yes, but,

it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Garcia is approaching his level of greatness.

He doesn’t have the track record yet, but he’s getting there.

by chuckb on Jun 8, 2011 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Count me out on this

until Garcia starts pitching consistently well on the road. He’s unbeatable at home with a 3.18 xFIP in 137 innings there. But his road xFIP is 3.81 in 123 innings.

Haren’s career home and road splits are nearly identical, around 3.50 xFIP, and his two best seasons came in a hitter’s park in Arizona.

I do think that Garcia is improving but if he’s going to be an ace like Haren is, I need to be able to count on him to be a stopper on the road and he isn’t that right now.

Can Colby round out our new MV3?

by fourstick on Jun 9, 2011 9:10 AM EDT up reply actions

I'm not convinced that tiny difference in xFIP means much during a little over 100 IP.

and IIRC most players play better at home anyhow (certainly the case for hitters, not seen the stats for pitchers but I’d be surprised if it’s any different overall).

Garcia and Haren’s combined xFIPs are pretty much identical so far. IMO Haren’s big advantage, however, comes in IP – I think Garcia is ALWAYS going to struggle a little bit to get really deep because he does waste a few pitches and I don’t think he’s going to be a groundball artist in the way that Haren has. Also, Haren has been supernaturally good at staying healthy (I think I’m correct in saying he’s either #2 or #3 in total IP since 2005 in all of baseball); makes 33 or 34 starts every single year.

Still bitching to contact.

by Felonius_Monk on Jun 10, 2011 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Tiny difference?

That’s over half a run! That’s the difference between a #3 starter and a #5 starter in terms of xFIP.

Can Colby round out our new MV3?

by fourstick on Jun 13, 2011 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions

I think

FM was addressing the SSS issue, not whether 0.5 xFIP is significant in a vaccuum.

by SouthsideCardsFan on Jun 13, 2011 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions

Article about this very things on Fangraphs today..

Over the past five seasons, Haren ranks as the third best pitcher in all of baseball according to WAR (behind Halladay and Sabathia).

Link

militia mea multiplex

by all4tookie on Jun 9, 2011 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't mind Greene being left off this list

but Hawksworth and Thompson have to be removed, too, then. They both have negative WAR over their careers, according to FG.
the contradiction is built into the “rules,” unfortunately… from the original post:

“part-timers” includes non-closers in the bullpen. i didn’t bother to list replacement-level players

by mikey_mac on Jun 6, 2011 5:30 PM EDT reply actions

also, greene is basically mather at this point

by mikey_mac on Jun 6, 2011 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions

I'll disagree with this point

and few would be shocked if a dark horse like kozma, chambers, pham, or broderick

I would be floored if Kozma became even a part-timer, especially since you don’t consider Greene one. I think calling Kozma a dark horse would be an understatement. I have no hope in him ever being any good.

"And a boring game for boring people. Did you ever watch golf on television? It's like watching flies FUCK. Think of the intellect it must take to draw pleasure from this activity: hitting a ball with a crooked stick and then WALKING AFTER IT" -George Carlin

TWITTER

by stlcardsfan4 on Jun 6, 2011 5:52 PM EDT reply actions

I think it's possible he gets to Greene's current standard

but that’s pretty much his ceiling now IMO.

Still bitching to contact.

by Felonius_Monk on Jun 10, 2011 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Great Post

I’d really like to see that total WAR put in table form with the players listed that are contributing positive WAR for their team from those draft classes. I’m guessing Milwaukee is riding one guy for a lot of their overall WAR (Ryan Braun) while the Cardinals have spread it out over multiple players during the ‘05-’08 time-frame.

What’s most interesting to me is how well Luhnow has done in his first three years….and how much talent is currently in the pipeline for the future that was drafted in ’09 and ’10. Our farm system has as much high ceiling talent as it has in a decade, and plenty of other upside arms and potential regulars to fill it out. Miller, Jenkins, and Martinez are as talented a pitching trio as I can remember in the Cardinal farm system in my lifetime.

From the ‘05-’08 group, Garcia and Rasmus seem likely to make the leap to “stars”, while Jay, Craig, and Boggs are destined to become regulars of some sort, even if it’s not in St. Louis. That’s pretty impressive. My personal opinion is that if you can develop 2 stars from your farm system every decade and graduate 6 regulars over that same span, your farm system is doing it’s job adequately.

Can Colby round out our new MV3?

by fourstick on Jun 6, 2011 10:31 PM EDT reply actions

This can't be true!

Joe Strauss has told me numerous times that Luhnow has done a terrible job and that’s why he was demoted!

by chuckb on Jun 6, 2011 11:13 PM EDT reply actions

Need I actually way what Joe Strauss can go do with himself?

Johnny Gomes could not be reached for comment
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.

by MaytheForschbewithyou on Jun 8, 2011 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions

How much credit. . .

should a GM get for a guy like Pujols, who was drafted so low? I mean, yeah, he took him, but only after passing on him over a dozen times. I would venture to say that’s more luck than GM skill.

by SouthsideCardsFan on Jun 8, 2011 10:06 AM EDT reply actions

Not a whole lot, really.

We’re very fortunate that Pujols hasn’t been beating up OUR pitching for the last decade.

Johnny Gomes could not be reached for comment
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.

by MaytheForschbewithyou on Jun 8, 2011 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions

Some, but not much.

I’ve always wondered how much data and scouting they have for guys when you get that late.

"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."

--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

by bgh on Jun 8, 2011 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Of course

If he’d been drafted in the 3rd, everyone would yell that we could have waited until the 13th to get him. I don’t think you can penalize them too mush for passing on the guy however many times, if the bottom line is that they got him.

by siddfynch on Jun 9, 2011 2:22 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs