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Around SBN: The Most Dangerous Division in Sports

A Bullpen Dilemma

 

The season is quite young, but it is already evident that this Cardinals team is flimsier than overcooked spaghetti in the bullpen. Now, one must not forget about the positives – namely the superb offensive production of Lance Berkman, Colby Rasmus, and David Freese, and Jaime Garcia’s decision to channel his inner Cliff Lee – but as fans, it is our job to dwell on the negatives. It builds up are emotional investment and makes winning only so much sweeter.

But, Oh My! The bullpen. Of course, Ryan Franklin’s inconsistencies, or rather, consistently abysmal play deserves much of the attention, but the problem is admittedly more than this. Just as a primer, I present the members of the St. Louis Cardinals bullpen:

  • Ryan Franklin, a closer who expresses neither power nor command, instead relying on contact and luck that appears to have finally run out
  • Jason Motte, a one dimensional pitcher whose one-dimension, a 94-97 fastball, has a bi-polar nature in terms of success
  • Mitchell Boggs, a starter/reliever tweener whose name has hung around in the lingo of Cardinal fans for a few years now, but has failed to promote excitement or exude confidence, at any time.
  • Bryan Augenstein, a right handed pitcher who fools no one, as his 8.34 career ERA and .354 BAA exhibits. Perhaps to the benefit of the Cardinals, he finds himself on the DL just two weeks in to the season
  • Brian Tallet, an aging lefty with injury problems, as he, too, finds himself on the DL early in the season
  • Miguel Batista. Oh Please No, we didn’t sign him, did we? Regardless of what his early numbers may indicate, a 1.4 WHIP suggests a quick regression to the mean.

That was our opening day bullpen, minus one name: Trever Miller. I left Miller’s name off the list because, simply, his persona and his value do not correlate with the names mentioned before him. Trever Miller is a classic lefty reliever: a wiry sidearmer, unkempt and mysterious, with a track record of experience and success. As such, he encourages confidence in even the most casual of Cardinal fans. And with good reason, as Miller has been consistently successful with the Cardinals and handles his team role – neutralizing tough lefty batters in the 7th and 8th innings – ably. He does this while also filling a defined personality role on the team that fans and players alike can latch on to.  Frankly, in an element of the game, the bullpen, that is all about confidence and character, Trever Miller is the only Cardinal that emits the vibes of these crucial traits.  This is the Cardinal bullpen’s crucial problem.

The way I see it, while a bullpen does not need "character" from all its members, it does need it from their guys with defined roles: 7th and 8th inning guys, a lefty, and a closer. And not all character is created equally, mind you. It helps to have one 7th or 8th inning man of the fiery, emotional variety, who packs heat with results, and another with a diverse set of pitches, calmer in nature that pitches to the model of efficiency, minimizing walks and pitches thrown. The 7th guy can be fiery and the 8th calm, or vice versa. Whatever works. A good bullpen also requires a wily lefty, a veteran in years and in MLB service who performs well under immediate entry into a big situation Essentially, the Trever Miller mold. Finally, a major league bullpen needs a shutdown closer who either has an unhittable, often  trademarked pitch, i.e. a Mariano Rivera cutter or a K-Rod slider, or so much personality (and firepower) that opposing teams and fans legitimately fear his entrance into the game. I’m talking Eric Gagne in his record saves streak, or a Brian Wilson or Heath Bell of today.

Don’t buy my broad "prototyping analysis" of relievers. Check out these current MLB examples.

  • San Diego has arguably the best pen in baseball. Their 7th inning guy Mike Adams is a fireball totin’ (95+ fastball) strike out machine. 8th inning man Luke Gregerson (former Cardinal draft pick) is a game-face sportin’ slider/fastball combo user, and also a strike out machine. Yes, they lack a go to lefty, but with Gregerson and Adams sporting .180 and .185 BAA’s against left handed hitters, this position is unneeded. Then there is Heath Bell, fastball aficionado and lockdown closer.
  • San Francisco also has a stellar pen, with crafty old lefty Javier Lopez, a poised out machine in Ramon Ramirez, charismatic Brian Wilson look alike Sergio Romo, and the man himself, Brian Wilson doing the closing.
The examples could continue but the fact remains that this Cardinals team needs help in the bullpen efficacy and charisma department. It appears that one, maybe two pieces – with the arrival of Eduardo Sanchez, fiery strike out guy (8 Ks, 3 IP, no runs) – are in place, but the Cardinals need help securing a calm, diverse and dependable outs guy (the role Kyle McClellan has filled the last couple years) and, of course, the all elusive closer. Internal solutions could include Fernando Salas or, more likely, a focused Mitchell Boggs, who has a fastball with movement and a nasty sinker. While a guy like Boggs filling the 7th or 8th inning role doesn’t solve the closer problem, it delays our need to rush out and overspend on a closer of average quality.

Bullpens require confidence, and confidence, among fans, players, and individual pitchers alike, starts with a certain level of unique bullpen character. 

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Good first post, Eli

Don’t really agree with your assessment on Augenstein; it’s an extremely small sample size with poor results based on batted ball luck, with good peripherals, to boot.

I would also argue that it is Gagne’s changeup/fastball combo, Wilson’s fastball, and Heath Bell’s changeup that make opposing fans/players fear them, and not their personality

Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
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by mysterui on Apr 24, 2011 4:08 PM EDT reply actions  

It seems like a defining characteristic of most, if not all of this year's team

is the sort of quiet, ’I’m just gonna go out and do my business and not show anybody my emotions’ type of character. Perhaps this is a result of the team leaders (I assume Pujols, Holliday, Carpenter, and Molina are the leaders in the clubhouse) that are the type of personalities who have quiet off-field lives and don’t excite the fans with outward showing of what they are feeling when they are on the field. We have very few guys (maybe Motte and perhaps Sanchez) like Brian Wilson, Carlos Zambrano, or Brandon Phillips that have loud personalities that bleed through onto the field, for better and for worse. It might make the team somewhat less interesting to follow but perhaps more steady in their production. I have no idea. But it does appear that there has been an effort to collect players that match a certain model. I think I believe that the personality of the player affects his performance, especially in clutch and high-leverage situations, but assume that their successes would be capture in the stats.

Now what am I going to spread on my toast? Your tears?

by jacksonian on Apr 24, 2011 4:41 PM EDT reply actions  

I don't understand what the supposed "problem" is with the bullpen

Is it just a general complaint that our bullpen needs more character or personality? Seems like an odd complaint given people like Motte, Tallet and Batista.

Florida has had perhaps the best bullpen in the NL so far, with the lowest bullpen WHIP and lowest OBA against. Looking at the composition of their bullpen doesn’t make me think “character,” “charisma,” or “personality.”

The bottom line is that the Cards have a decent bullpen. The Cards are 10th in the ML in bullpen ERA (5th in the NL, and better than the 9th place SF Giants, which you used as an example to prove your point), 14th in avg., 13th in K/BB, and 13th in WHIP. They are average or just a bit above it. What they are worst at is successful save percentage. Which can be laid overwhelmingly at Franklin’s feet. In other words, but for Franklin, the bullpen is fine.

Basically, all of the hand-wringing about the bullpen is the result of a recent series of bad performances by one guy - Franklin.

by Willie McGee's Twin on Apr 24, 2011 4:42 PM EDT reply actions   5 recs

Frankly, in an element of the game, the bullpen, that is all about confidence and character

I’d probably add “pitching baseballs really well” to that list. Maybe even to the top of it.

Still bitching to contact.

by Felonius_Monk on Apr 24, 2011 5:28 PM EDT reply actions  

A minor point
San Diego has arguably the best pen in baseball. Their 7th inning guy Mike Adams is a fireball totin’ (95+ fastball) strike out machine. 8th inning man Luke Gregerson (former Cardinal draft pick) is a game-face sportin’ slider/fastball combo user, and also a strike out machine. Yes, they lack a go to lefty

They’ve got Joe Thatcher, who might be pretty much the best LOOGY in baseball. He’s been injured but likely to be back soon.

Well-written post btw, although I don’t really buy into your opinion on bullpen make-up particularly.

Still bitching to contact.

by Felonius_Monk on Apr 24, 2011 5:34 PM EDT reply actions  

great first post

but “flimsier than overcooked spaghetti” is a bit too harsh. Franklin is the only one I would classify as such, and he’s already been demoted. I think the bullpen will at the least be average or middle of the pack. I wouldn’t go so far as to say it’s the main weakness of the team. this is a ’pen that has already survived two injuries (although that, arguably, improved the bullpen) and a closer implosion… and as WMT mentioned, they are still 10th in MLB

dingers

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 25, 2011 12:29 AM EDT reply actions  

I take issue with the Franklin not having command comment

when he is on he definitely hits his spots. You can see the catchers glove barely has to move and he consistently paints the bottom of the strike zone.

I don’t think Franklin is anything special, but he does have some useful talents.

by TheBirds on Apr 25, 2011 1:22 AM EDT reply actions  

agreed

his main problem is that, despite having four pitches, none of them are above average, so if he’s not hitting his spots he remains very hittable.

Still bitching to contact.

by Felonius_Monk on Apr 25, 2011 5:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

I appreciate the feedback

And yes, the bullpen is not looking so bad with Salas, Sanchez, Boggs doing their thing (but hey, thats a formidable 7th inning, 8th inning, and closer line up right there, is it not?).

Can we agree not to be sold on Miggy Batista though?

by Eli Katz on Apr 25, 2011 2:29 AM EDT reply actions  

One interesting point that you leave out here

All the bullpens you mention were built from the club’s farm system. There were few free agent signings to add to any of those bullpens, and I think you’re now seeing a similar situation with the Cardinals as Sanchez, Salas, and Boggs have taken the top three spots in the pen.

Atlanta has been doing this for the better part of two decades. It’s about time our club did the same.

Can Colby round out our new MV3?

by fourstick on Apr 25, 2011 8:38 AM EDT reply actions  

That's one of my favorite things about Mo.

He believes in not spending big dollars in the bullpen and building that area through the draft. In recent years, it seems like a team can take a college closer and quickly move him up the ranks and into a useful bullpen arm (Huston Street, Chris Perez, Drew Storen, Chad Cordero – the pre-injury one). I think the biggest cost in doing this is the value in the draft that could be obtained for a higher ceiling level player. I also believe that there is a lower risk for this type of planner to not pan out, which also has its benefits.

I would rather save the 5-10M from the pen and use it to upgrade the everyday players that will provide the lead for the bullpen to protect. A loogy (1-1.5M), setup (2-3M), closer (5-12M), 2nd loogy (1-1.5M) is 9-18M in cost, plus you still have 2-3 more spots to fill. That’s part of the reason why the Cardinals were content with Franklin and his lower salary because it enabled the team to re-sign a guy like Westbrook. If you have a closer that is being paid 10M per year, that really limits your abilities to acquire a more reliable 4th-5th starter. Fortunately, the arms that have been developed in the system recently are covering up a massive hole that would have been costly to fill (in terms of prospects midseason).

by Jumsy on Apr 25, 2011 9:58 AM EDT reply actions  

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