The NL Central Statistical Projection Extravaganza!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 13, 2011 11:57 PM EDT
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PrintWell, I feel fairly confident in who is going to be the (near) every day starters for the top 3 teams in the NL Central. I grew impatient with fangraphs.com, waiting for them to post the zips projections in wOBA form. While I wanted to include that, maybe I'll include those projections at a later date instead. So let me gaze into my crystal ball, or electronic sphere as it were...
The NL Central looks to be a tight 3 team race this year, after Adam Wainwright's season-ending injury. Since Kyle McClellan looks to be rather on track for the "5th starter" role, the Brewers rotation looking pretty solid, and Homer Bailey the likely candidate for the Reds' number 5 spot, here are what the various projections systems are saying.
St. Louis Cardinals projected wOBA: RotoChamp | Bill James | Marcel | Fans| Projection Ave | fWAR
- 1B Albert Pujols .449 | .452 | .414 | .434 | .437 | 7.5
- 2B Skip Schumaker .336 | .321 | .318 | .315 | .323 | .6
- SS Ryan Theriot .310 | .313 | .304 | .300 | .307 | 1.1
- 3B David Freese .319 | .353 | .334 | .341 | .337 | 2.5
- C Yadier Molina .331 | .311 | .317 | .319 | .320 | 3.2
- RF Lance Berkman .380 | .376 | .360 | .367 | .371 | 2.3
- CF Colby Rasmus .344 | .354 | .343 | .361 | .351 | 4.1
- LF Matt Holliday .401 | .399 | .382 | .395 | .394 | 5.6
Notes: Albert Pujols is ridiculous, Schumaker remains in my mind a big concern, Theriot won't be hitting any better than Brendan Ryan, and RotoChamp is not very fond of David Freese, while Bill James thinks a lot higher of his hitting than the other projection systems. Molina is not that great of a hitter, but makes up for it with his unmatched defense. If Berkman can log a lot of innings, he should be a nice factor for the offense! Colby Rasmus is quite possibly the 3rd best player on a team that has Albert Pujols.... and Matt Holliday. Yep. This remains an intimidating lineup for the opposing pitcher to have to experience.
Especially when you average the projections, and then average the lineup... the average wOBA for a starter on this team is .355. Not too shabby, despite the not so impressive hitting capabilities of Yadier Molina (slow), Skip Schumaker (appears to be in decline offensively), and Ryan Theriot (who must go back to his 2008 self to show any value on offense).
Bringing defense a little bit into account, the total projected fWAR for this lineup is 26.9. Factor in a possible bench with Matt Carpenter, Allen Craig, and Jon Jay (with Nick Punto joining the bunch sometime later this season and adding great defense), and this team is pretty good despite the worry of David Freese and Lance Berkman being healthy.
Cardinals starting rotation FIP projections: RotoChamp | Bill James | Marcel | Fans| Projection Ave | fWAR
- Chris Carpenter 3.48 | 3.27 | 3.50 | 3.59 | 3.46 | 4.1
- Jake Westbrook 4.23 | 4.15 | 4.14 | 4.14 | 4.17 | 2.8
- Jaime Garcia 3.44 | 3.87 | 3.57 | 3.93 | 3.70 | 3.1
- Kyle Lohse 4.36 | 4.36 | 4.14 | 4.36 | 4.31 | 1.8
- Kyle McClellan 4.09 | 3.80 | 3.96 | 4.05 | 3.98 | 1.4
The average projected FIP for a St. Louis starter by all projection systems is 3.92, and the total fWAR for this rotation is 13.2. Next I'll list the projected ERA for Cardinals starters:
- Chris Carpenter 3.22 | 3.06 | 3.24 | 3.29 | 3.20
- Jake Westbrook 4.09 | 4.00 | 4.16 | 4.10 | 4.09
- Jaime Garcia 3.52 | 3.86 | 3.36 | 3.75 | 3.62
- Kyle Lohse 4.93 | 4.54 | 4.81 | 4.63 | 4.73
- Kyle McClellan 3.72 | 3.52 | 3.46 | 3.34 | 3.51
Projected ERA for Cards' rotation: 3.83
Cincinnati Reds projected wOBA: RotoChamp | Bill James | Marcel | Fans| Projection Ave | fWAR
- 1B Joey Votto .418 | .426 | .401 | .420 | .416 | 6.5
- 2B Brandon Phillips .340 | .327 | .327 | .332 | .332 | 3.4
- SS Edgar Renteria .311 | .317 | .296 | .296 | .305 | .5
- 3B Scott Rolen .366 | .352 | .342 | .347 | .352 | 3.5
- C Ryan Hanigan .370 | .337 | .329 | .341 | .344 | 2.5
- RF Jay Bruce .349 | .375 | .350 | .369 | .361 | 4.7
- CF Drew Stubbs .341 | .346 | .342 | .345 | .344 | 3.8
- LF Johnny Gomes .343 | .345 | .332 | .327 | .337 | 0
Notes: While Joey Votto is a big producer, and Jay Bruce could have a big season at the plate, they will have to offset Edgar Renteria and Johnny Gomes, who appear to be about replacement value. Still this is a solid starting lineup with Scott Rolen, Brandon Phillips, and the possiblity of Ryan Hanigan living up to projections (RotoChamp seems to think he will be a monster at the plate, while other systems think of him as a much more normal hitter).
The average projected wOBA for a Reds' starter is .349. This is just not as strong of a lineup offensively as the Cardinals'. I don't know the Reds bench really well, but I don't see it being any better than the Cardinals bench.
Let's flip the switch to fWAR projections (of course bringing defense into account): their lineup totals 24.9. Again this isn't as good as the Cardinals lineup, so they need to hope for more injuries, or poor performance from the bench.
While the Cards have the edge, it's not by a LOT. The teams will both roll out competitive offenses.
Reds starting rotation FIP projections: RotoChamp | Bill James | Marcel | Fans| Projection Ave | fWAR
- Bronson Arroyo 4.66 | 4.50 | 4.52 | 4.69 | 4.60 | 1.9
- Johnny Cueto 4.21 | 4.31 | 4.04 | 4.14 | 4.18 | 3
- Edinson Volquez 4.04 | 4.09 | 3.88 | 3.99 | 4.00 | 2.6
- Travis Wood 3.44 | 3.78 | 3.54 | 3.60 | 3.59 | 3.6
- Homer Bailey 4.10 | 4.22 | 3.92 | 3.92 | 4.04 | 2.9
The average projected FIP for a Cincinnati starter by all projection systems is 4.08, and the total fWAR for this rotation is 14. This is undoubtedly a solid rotation with depth in Mike Leake (average projection 4.37; 2.1 WAR is not much of a drop off from Bailey). Cards' have the edge in the rate stat, but I don't think the projections have a lot of confidence in the Cardinals' starters to put in a lot of innings, and their rotation depth is questionable at best.
The projected ERA for Reds starters:
- Bronson Arroyo 4.30 | 3.92 | 4.00 | 4.33 | 4.14
- Johnny Cueto 4.21 | 4.14 | 3.97 | 3.94 | 4.07
- Edinson Volquez 3.78 | 3.91 | 3.89 | 4.05 | 3.91
- Travis Wood 4.08 | 3.58 | 3.49 | 3.72 | 3.72
- Homer Bailey 4.26 | 4.55 | 4.25 | 4.04 | 4.28
4.03 average ERA projection for the Cincin bunch. Again, the Cardinals have the edge in the rate stat department. It would seem that the Cardinals have the more talent, but there are concerns about the endurance of key players. In case Bailey goes down, the Reds have Leake (and other starters that look to be about MLB ready) to step in. Leake's projected ERA looks to be better than his FIP in case you were wondering. When you factor in Chapman, it's hard to say how much edge the Cardinals have.
Milwaukee Brewers projected wOBA: RotoChamp | Bill James | Marcel | Fans| Projection Ave | fWAR
- 1B Prince Fielder .399 |.401 | .383 | .408 | .398 | 5
- 2B Rickie Weeks .360 | .348 | .349 | .366 | .356 | 4.6
- SS Yuniesky Betancourt .308 | .290 | .291 | .289 | .295 | -0.5
- 3B Casey McGehee .350| .346 | .343 | .336 | .344 | 2.3
- C Jonathan Lucroy .302 | .310 | .311 | .317 | .310 | 2.2
- RF Corey Hart .356 | .352 | .339 | .344 | .348 | 1.5
- CF Carlos Gomez .293 | .303 | .301 | .292 | .297 | 1
- LF Ryan Braun .388 | .398 | .378 | .397 | .390 | 4.7
Notes: The NL Central is stacked at first base. When Prince Fielder is a distant third in the first baseman hierarchy, you have some ridiculous players in one division at that position. All three teams are running out some less than thrilling shortstops, but the Brewers take it to a new level of crappy with Betancourt (although he has more power than Renteria and Theriot). Some other holes in their power heavy lineup are Lucroy/whoever ends up being their catcher, and Carlos Gomez, who is barely above average.
The average projected wOBA for a Milwaukee starter (when considering all systems listed here) is .342. So the offense is not as lethal as I thought. Factor in defense with fWAR and their lineup stacks up to be 20.8 wins above replacement level. That just doesn't stack up to the Cardinals' and Reds' projections.
Brewers starting rotation FIP projections: RotoChamp | Bill James | Marcel | Fans| Projection Ave | fWAR
- Zach Greinke 3.10 | 3.31 | 3.15 | 3.07 | 3.16 | 6.3
- Yovani Gallardo 3.29 | 3.34 | 3.39 | 3.40 | 3.36 | 4.9
- Randy Wolf 4.51 | 4.43 | 4.30 | 4.45 | 4.43 | 2.4
- Shawn Marcum 3.87 | 4.25 | 3.94 | 3.81 | 3.97 | 3.7
- Chris Narveson 4.19 | 4.49 | 4.10 | 4.18 | 4.24 | 2.4
The reason Milwaukee is in the conversation is the additions of Zach Greinke and Shawn Marcum. These moves are essential for the Brewers' success, since last season they had a rotation that was the opposite of formidable. This rotation appears to be able to put up some solid WAR numbers, as well as the potential to be ridiculously lights out with the one-two punch of Greinke and Gallardo.
The average projected FIP for a Milwaukee starter is 3.83, and the total fWAR of this rotation is 19.7. This is the best projected WAR total among NL Central teams, and what will carry the Brewers into the playoffs if they are the team to beat. It's also the best FIP... Greinke and Gallardo are that good.
Let's see how ERA projections stack up...
- Zach Greinke 3.41 | 3.45 | 3.38 | 3.17 | 3.35
- Yovani Gallardo 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.68 | 3.45 | 3.56
- Randy Wolf 4.27 | 4.05 | 3.98 | 4.16 | 4.12
- Shawn Marcum 3.69 | 3.77 | 3.70 | 3.59 | 3.69
- Chris Narveson 4.46 | 4.45 | 4.40 | 4.34 | 4.41
Which results in a staff average 3.83 projected ERA from all systems, exactly the same as their projected FIP. Any way you slice it, Milwaukee has the best rotation in the central.
Which brings us to the fun part of WAR totals for the three teams:
- Cardinals 40.1
- Reds 38.9
- Brewers 40.5
That is, indeed, a tight knit race. All three teams have weaknesses: Cards have injury concerns, an overall slow team, a middle infield of Skip Schumaker and Ryan Theriot, and a key bullpen member moved to the rotation (and Ryan Franklin); Reds have a near useless player in Johnny Gomes, an aging Edgar Renteria at shortstop, and a young Ryan Hanigan at catcher (and not a lot of depth there)... as well as the lowest WAR total of the 3 teams. The Brewers may have the best rotation without doubt, but they are also slow, are not very good defensively... their middle infield defense might be even worse than the Cards' dynamic duo. They also appear to have low on-base skills, and terrible players like Betancourt and their catcher(s). Carlos Gomez is quite boring as well. How will the bullpens stack up is anyone's guess (I'd say the Brewers have the worst of the three?)... and I can't think of many notable players on the Reds or Brewers bench other than Craig Counsell and Miguel Cairo.
So in conclusion, if the Cards are not nagged by injuries, it looks to be a tight race between the Cardinals and Brewers. The Reds are not far off the pace and could easily swoop in if either team falters. One last note:
FIP/ERA combo average for each team
- Cardinals 3.875
- Reds 4.055
- Brewers 3.83
If Lohse can be more like his FIP projection and less like his ERA projection, that would be a big boost to the rotation. But more importantly, if Garcia can match those projected rate numbers, and McClellan can put in more innings than expected, the Cardinals may just make the playoffs this year.
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This is a very well done post
One thing I might mention on the Reds front: Don’t count on Jonny Gomes and Edgar Renteria to be the full time starters.
Paul Janish is the presumed starter at SS, and while his wOBA projections are weak (my guess is they average out to about a .295 to .300) he is a career 10.6 UZR/150 defender at SS. Far better than Renteria. My guess is that he projects to about a 1 win player.
Gomes is pencilled in to be the everday LFer, but I’ll be shocked (and pissed) if he is. With Fred Lewis as a possible platoon candidate for Gomes (and Chris Heisey also in the fold), I think you’ll see more production out of that spot than simple replacement level. How much depends on how stubborn Dusty Baker is in starting a crappy Gomes against righties.
It’s entirely possible your total WAR projection for the lineup is correct, but it’s also possible that the team gets another win or two out of it.
Either way, it’s going to be a close, fun race this summer!
"Penus, stale beer, and day old hot dogs. Love it"--justin007000
thanks for reading, nycredsfan! I knew I'd be running the risk this early in spring training with starting rosters
but alas, I wanted it to be time sensitive. this division is too close to call!
cmon VEB, I am disappoint. 2 recs and no comments? ridiculous
I like Kyle Lohse and Jon Jay
turn it up to '11
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 14, 2011 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm glad you took the time to do this.
I hope you can do it again when rosters are more set? Sorry I am reaching here to make a comment. Lack of time and brain, you understand. More the second, I’m afraid.
nicely done
I have a feeling the Brew Crew is a bit overrated, but that ’s all it is (feeling/hunch).
youneverknow
nice work
Seems like KMac’s projections come from the bullpen… I wonder if there’s a simple conversion that can be done for the sake of this approximation.
I'm open to anyone adding comments to adjust the basic findings here
I like Kyle Lohse and Jon Jay
turn it up to '11
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 14, 2011 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions
It's very strange to see the starting rotation as the Brewer's strength this year, and the possible reason for their taking the division
Their lineup just isn’t as good as I am used to assuming it to be.
Obviously nycredsfan’s points on the Reds position players are good to keep in mind. Still, I am kind of underwhelmed by the Reds (which is unfair, they are clearly a good team). I just figured they’d to more to improve. Perhaps they are just not trying to do any “mortgaging of the future” and go into a win-now mode.
Anyway, I am still pretty confident the Cardinals will compete with these two teams fairly closely. But good grief, I’d feel so much better seeing Adam Wainwright’s projections up there in place of McClellan’s. Why, GOB, why…
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
I think the Reds will be good and compete for the division
…but I also expect some of the players to regress a bit, production-wise.
youneverknow
Definitely
I still sometimes forget just how much they “over-performed” last year, and how unrealistic it is to expect that to repeat. Not saying it couldn’t happen, but it probably won’t.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
since Renteria isn't starting
the Reds will have two really young starters in Hanigan and Janish. not that this is a bad thing, just an uncertainty for the lineup. add the possibility of replacing Gomes and they are probably just as close. pretty much just did this excercise to see if it is indeed a 3 team race, and it is.
you gotta love those rate projections for St. Louis though… very encouraging. McClellan can of course up his WAR total if he remains healthy all (or most) of the season and doesn’t get too fatigued.
I like Kyle Lohse and Jon Jay
turn it up to '11
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 14, 2011 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree that regression is entirely possible in the Reds lineup
But from management standpoint, they think Drew Stubbs is going to be a star and will actually improve on last year (I don’t necessarily agree). In addition, most thing Jay Bruce is primed for a breakout year. Ryan Hanigan is pretty much guaranteed to give you an OBP above .370. Votto is a question mark (it’s hard for anyone not named Pujols to maintain that kind of production…but I personally believe he will). Phillips is incredibly consistent in what he offers offensively. Paul Janish can’t hit, but neither could Orlando Cabrera. Janish should hit at least as much as he did and also be twice as good at defense. LF will probably not be great, but won’t be replacement level either.
My big concern is 3B. They’ve already said Rolen won’t play more than 120 games, and that’s probably a best case scenario. Right now it looks like the incredibly sucky Miguel Cairo will get those other 42 starts. That’s going to be a huge black hole in the lineup for 1/4 of the year. In some ways it’d be better if Rolen was out for a while, because the team has two guys in AAA who could probably be league average 3B right now (Juan Francisco and Todd Frazier).
And really, the biggest advantage the Reds have in the NLC race is depth. Besides having the potential for 5 league average or better starters, they have a good, deep bullpen and Mike Leake sitting in AAA when the inevitable starter injury occurs. In addition, there will be a legit prospect starting at every position in AAA in case of injury. I don’t know of any other team that can boast of that.
"Penus, stale beer, and day old hot dogs. Love it"--justin007000
Yeah, they definitely have depth. I wish we had that kind of depth, especially with starting pitching.
I don’t know much about Ryan Hanigan. I have to say, the plate discipline looks impressive now that I browse his Fangraphs page.
We can definitely sympathize with Miguel Cairo-type-players sucking up innings and plate appearances at third base. Shudder. A huge part of Cardinals’ fan optimism this year is that maybe Freese will be healthy and effective, and if he isn’t we might actually have a chance of decent fill-ins for him.
Do Reds’ fans not consider Jay Bruce to have already had a “breakout year”? I kind of figured 2010 was considered his breakout year. Not saying he can’t improve on that, but he was pretty awesome last year.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Yeah, Hanigan is one of the most underrated players in the NL
Easily the most underrated catcher. His defense is great (40% CS last year) and his OBP skills are tremendous. I guess that’s what happens when you are an undrafted FA who doesn’t make the bigs until you are 28. OTOH, he’s not super durable, which means he’ll be splitting time with Ramon Hernandez again (who is due for a major regression)
Re: Bruce. He was good, but if you look at his game log, he was phenomenal the last 2 months of the year, and that really boosted his numbers. From August 8th on he OPSed 1.257 with 15 homers. Fair or not, that’s the kind of stuff Cinci fans have been expecting from him since he came up.
He’ll be 24 this year, and his ISO power hasn’t yet touched what it did in the minors, although his plate discipline has gotten better. I think a best case scenario for him would be a .290/.360/.560 type year with 35 homers. That’s the kind of breakout we fans are hoping for.
"Penus, stale beer, and day old hot dogs. Love it"--justin007000
yeah, I knew nothing of this guy until I did this exercise
I’ll still be surprised if he OBP’s above .370, but anything over .360 is quite nice, and it looks like he’ll be able to do that, at catcher no less.
I like Kyle Lohse and Jon Jay
turn it up to '11
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 15, 2011 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't know.
His career minors OBP is .382 and so far in the majors it is .379. I’d say above .370 seems pretty likely.
"Penus, stale beer, and day old hot dogs. Love it"--justin007000
For some reason I thought Bruce slugged over .500 last year
His hitting was basically 2010 Colby Rasmus but with slightly lower OBP. So I can totally see what you’re saying now.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Yeah, it really is all about the power for him
Part of the optimism springs from the fact that he broke his wrist in July of 2009, and for the first half of 2010 he had almost no power. Once he was a full year removed from the injury the power really took off.
We’re hopeful he shows that power all year in 2011.
"Penus, stale beer, and day old hot dogs. Love it"--justin007000
I am really hoping Colby becomes better than Bruce
and you’re not helping!
Just kidding. It’s gonna be really fun to watch those two guys over the years.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Indeed.
I would love it if your manager figured out a way to piss him off enough to demand a trade!
Re: Bruce vs. Rasmus, I don’t think you can say he’s definitely better. He probalby was a bit more valuable in 2010, but to me there are 3 issues that could result in Bruce being a more valuable player. One is defense. Bruce is a definite stud in RF. How good is Rasmus in CF? I think he’s probably pretty good, but the jury seems out on that right now. Second is power. Rasmus seems to have maxed out his power potential (or at least come close). Bruce seems to have a lot more power in the tank, based on his minors numbers. Third is hitting lefties. Bruce turned a huge corner against them in 2010, whereas Rasmus clearly still struggles against them. As it stands right now, Rasmus is probably a bit more valuable, but that could easily change over the next couple seasons. (or not. should be fun to watch!)
"Penus, stale beer, and day old hot dogs. Love it"--justin007000
Did you look at Rasmus's numbers against LHP for last season?
"Sometimes you scare me." - azruavatar
Isolated power
Bruce ’09: .246
Bruce ’10: .212
Rasmus ’09: .156
Rasmus ’10: .222
this seems to support your hypothesis. but Rasmus is a historically slow starter when he jumps up a level (that was his rookie year with the .156 ISO).
and anecdotal evidence: as Cards fans, we’ve all seen Rasmus absolutely crush the ball. I think he can hit it as far as just about anybody when he gets a hold of it.
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 16, 2011 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, he definitely has very good power
But there is a study somewhere on the interwebs measuring the “true distance” of homers, and Bruce had the longest average true distance on his homers in the entire majors last year.
"Penus, stale beer, and day old hot dogs. Love it"--justin007000
http://www.hittrackeronline.com/
Rasmus and Bruce have 401 and 402 ft average home run distance. Reynolds has the longest average true distance at 415.
http://fuckyeahnouns.com/alex%20fritz
Yeah, Rasmus is fine against lefties
In 2009 he was pretty bad, but he wasn’t great at hitting, period, in 2009. He was a rookie.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
I would say as it stands right now, Bruce is more valuable, and I can totally see him being the better player in the long run
I mean, he clearly had a better year in 2010 by the advanced stats. Rasmus was a touch better as a hitter, but they were almost the same. Bruce had awesomely rated defense whereas Rasmus had a badly rated year defensively.
I would probably agree, based on all their past performance (minors and majors) that Bruce has a higher power potential. Colby seems to have better plate discipline numbers, at least based on BB% (I’m eyeballing this so feel free to correct me on any of this stuff if you have done a more detailed calculation or something).
Anyway, positional adjustments should also be made. Colby is a legit center fielder, and I don’t see him moving to right field any time soon.
It would be really cool if they played the same position and the comparison was more correct. As it is, I still can’t help but see them as rivals in a way, especially since the Cardinals are known to have drafted Rasmus because they figured they wouldn’t get Bruce, but wanted a similar player.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
I meant to say "the comparison were more direct" instead of "more correct"
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
This is a good assessment
FWIW, Bruce is considered a CFer playing right by a lot of people (not just fans, I’ve read scouts refer to him that way.)
I imagine if he played CF regularly he’d grade out similar to Rasmus, and vice versa.
"Penus, stale beer, and day old hot dogs. Love it"--justin007000
I don't think switching positions increases your value
Theoretically the loss in UZR would offset the uptick in CF position
"And a boring game for boring people. Did you ever watch golf on television? It's like watching flies FUCK. Think of the intellect it must take to draw pleasure from this activity: hitting a ball with a crooked stick and then WALKING AFTER IT" -George Carlin
by stlcardsfan4 on Mar 23, 2011 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think that he can play CF at an above average level.
Which is part of the reason he got moved to RF. He’s got a cannon for an arm, but he doesn’t move all that well.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
He got moved to RF because it's less wear and tear
and he’s not blazing fast. But he’s definitely an above average runner. I feel pretty confident he’d grade out as about average in CF.
My point is that if Rasmus and Bruce played the same OF position they’d probably end up with about the same total defensive value.
"Penus, stale beer, and day old hot dogs. Love it"--justin007000
Meh -- I disagree
Rasmus covers a ton of ground, Bruce just doesn’t do that.
Less wear and tear? He played a grand total of 285 innings out there in his rookie season then moved to right field — not much time to determine “wear and tear”. I think it’s much more likely that Dickerson and Stubbs were just better defensively in CF and Bruce is an elite defensive right fielder.
You’re making the same case that Astros fans made when they moved Berkman out of CF in the middle of the last decade. Except they moved him because he was killing them defensively in CF and was much more valuable to them playing 1B or corner outfield.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
You clearly don't watch him play
He’s not as fast as Rasmus, but he gets great jumps and isn’t slow by any means. Over his career he’s been a +15 UZR/150 in RF, 51 RAA per season according to BPro, and the fan scouting report graded him as about 10 RAA. There’s no way a corner outfielder who is that good wouldn’t be at least an average CF.
And by wear and tear I meant future. It’s a lot harder on the body to play CF and the Reds want him to be a mid-lineup force for years. Being in RF makes that more likely. Bryce Harper could probably handle CF too, but there’s a reason the Nats aren’t putting him there.
"Penus, stale beer, and day old hot dogs. Love it"--justin007000
So now I get insulted
Dude — I’VE PREDICTED HIS BREAKING OUT THE LAST TWO SEASONS. Why would I do that if I hadn’t watched him play? It’s quite possible I’ve seen him play more than any non-Red fan out there — I like Jay Bruce, I’m just not sold that he’s every going to be a superstar player. As I said above, I think he’s a JD Drew type — .280/.360/.500 and great defense in a corner outfield spot. That’s a 4 WAR player every year.
Are you saying that Jay Buhner would have been a great CF? Vlad Guerrero? Ryan Ludwick? Matt Holliday? Carl Crawford? All those guys are/were elite corner outfielders who can’t play CF. You’re making an assertion that is not backed up by evidence. This is turning into an objective vs. homer-ific discussion.
Are you really saying that Bryce Harper is playing RF because the Nationals don’t want him playing in CF due to “wear and tear”? You’ve got to be kidding me. For one thing, he’s still probably going to make the bigs as a CF (due to the fact that Jayson Werth is going to be their RF for the foreseeable future), and for another, they moved him to the outfield from behind the plate to reduce wear and tear, a move that I agree with given his skills. Quote:
Though Harper has predominantly played catcher, the Nationals drafted him as an outfielder. Nationals General Manager Mike Rizzo explained that Harper playing the outfield will “accelerate his development in the minor leagues and extend his career in the major leagues”.
Show me the part where he’s playing corner outfield to “reduce wear and tear”.
The Twins should have done the same thing with Joe Mauer.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
That's not insulting. It just seems evident you haven't seen him play. He was really good in CF when he played there as a rookie.
So you disagree that CF is harder on the body than RF?
They moved him from C to reduce wear and tear, but they still didn’t put him in CF. They put him in RF. Why? Because CF would still be a ton of wear on the body.
"Penus, stale beer, and day old hot dogs. Love it"--justin007000
Or perhaps he's just not a good CF?
I don’t know, I’ve never seen Harper play outfield. I’ve only seen him play catcher.
Sorry, if he was really good in CF and they moved him to “reduce wear and tear” then your organization is making a huge mistake. A 3.5 WAR bat with above average defense in CF is a 6 WAR player. Same guy in RF is a 4.5 WAR player.
I guess Dusty is your manager so it’s entirely possible that this is the line of thinking, even though it’s beyond stupid.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Still waiting for the quote from anyone
stating that Harper is playing RF to “reduce wear and tear” or that Bruce was moved to RF to “reduce wear and tear”. I think the more likely scenario is that they were moved because that’s the best position for them on the field and others can play the CF position better than they can.
And if this is the case with Bruce, then why were the Reds trying to move Joey Votto to LF for 3 years? Seems hypocritical to me, considering that Votto can’t even play LF.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Sure, I never said they were world beaters in CF.
I said Bruce was about an average CF, maybe slightly above. Stubbs is a much better CF, Bruce’s offense plays at RF, and it’ll be easier for him to maintain it in RF. That was my original point.
And my point about Harper is that he could also handle CF (according to scouts I’ve read) but that they feel his offense will be stronger and his body hold up more in RF. Sluggers with a bit of speed always do better in a corner.
"Penus, stale beer, and day old hot dogs. Love it"--justin007000
Still waiting for quotes.
As far as I’m concerned, this is your crusade to move future HOF centerfielders off of their positions and make them future hall-of-very-good right fielders. :-D
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
And the original point was, the jury is out on how good Rasmus is in CF
If he’s a true talent +6-8 run defender there, he’s clearly better than Bruce. I’m not convinced that’s the case.
"Penus, stale beer, and day old hot dogs. Love it"--justin007000
I'm not convinced on Rasmus either -- lots of fluctuation year to year.
But how can you be convinced that Bruce is a ~2 win outfielder in RF and not convinced that Rasmus is a ~1 win outfielder in CF?
They have nearly the same number of innings played in both positions and statistically Rasmus is a 0.6 run guy over those innings, while Bruce is a 1 win guy over those two innings. Your position seems to be that Bruce is twice that good even though the metrics don’t indicate that over a significant sample size, and that Rasmus isn’t as good as the numbers say he is over the same sample size. How can you possibly make that case?
By the metrics, I’d say that Rasmus has a far better chance of being a 1 win CF than Bruce has of being a 2 win RF over the next 2000 innings played.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
I mean, I doubt Bruce is a true 2 win RFer, but he's really damn good
And there’s something to be said for improvement.
Still, even if the difference is .6 win in CF to 1 win in RF, my contention is that Rasmus would probably grade out to a little less than 1 win in RF (his arm isn’t all that great) and Bruce would grade out to somewhere between 0 and .3 wins or so in CF (his range would probably be average to slightly below, and his arm well above)
Point being, their total defensive value is probably roughly the same.
"Penus, stale beer, and day old hot dogs. Love it"--justin007000
Rasmus > Bruce defensively
no doubt
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 24, 2011 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Based on what?
Fangraphs Aggregate Defensive Ratings has him at about a +4 run defender total over the last 2 years (or about +2 runs a year)
Bruce is a total of a +23 run defender in RF over the last 2.5 seasons, or about +9 or 10 runs a season. With the different defensive valuations between RF and CF, I’d say that makes them pretty damn similar.
"Penus, stale beer, and day old hot dogs. Love it"--justin007000
The difference between CF and RF is about 10 runs a season
Skip Schumaker is a scapegoat
by vivaelpujols on Mar 24, 2011 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Right. So we're talking about a difference of fewer than 2 runs a season
Like I said, pretty damn close.
"Penus, stale beer, and day old hot dogs. Love it"--justin007000
That assumes UZR ratings of Bruce and Rasmus are accurate
They likely aren’t. A proper projection would regress them to the mean, which would favor Rasmus.
Skip Schumaker is a scapegoat
by vivaelpujols on Mar 24, 2011 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions
My runs ratings aren't UZR
they are an aggregate of UZR, TotalZone, Fan Scouting Report, and Defensive Runs Saved (from Fangraphs new Aggregate Defensive Rating). It accounts for standard deviation and a margin of error. And these numbers are a three year aggregate of that. It’s probably about as accurate a number as we can get.
"Penus, stale beer, and day old hot dogs. Love it"--justin007000
Using multiple data sources doesn't necessarily reduce the error
And you always need to regress defensive stats due to the variability of what you are measuring.
Rasmus is likely a better defender going forward based off of his defensive stats and his position. Scouting is another matter.
Skip Schumaker is a scapegoat
by vivaelpujols on Mar 24, 2011 9:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Sure, but using multiple sources
and accounting for some of the natural error in them surely creates for a more accurate number, probably lessening the need for regression.
I mean, if you are going to regress Bruce, you have to regress Rasmus too. I think, at the end of the day, you are looking at 2 guys who are likely within a couple runs of each other in total defensive value.
"Penus, stale beer, and day old hot dogs. Love it"--justin007000
....
Sure, but using multiple sources and accounting for some of the natural error in them surely creates for a more accurate number, probably lessening the need for regression.
And I’m saying this might not be true. If TZ or DRS is systematically worse than UZR, then it would actually greaten the error.
I mean, if you are going to regress Bruce, you have to regress Rasmus too. I think, at the end of the day, you are looking at 2 guys who are likely within a couple runs of each other in total defensive value.
I agree, but since Bruce’s defensive stats deviate higher from the mean, his would get regressed more than Rasmus’.
Rasmus might be regressed to +1 compared to other centerfielders, whereas Bruce might be regressed to +6.
Skip Schumaker is a scapegoat
by vivaelpujols on Mar 24, 2011 10:19 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah, I'm not saying it's out of the question by any means
nice player!
I like Kyle Lohse and Jon Jay
turn it up to '11
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 15, 2011 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions
the reds' lineup will be fierce
i’m not convinced that your rotation will be though….maybe i am biased (i am) but a rotation of arroyo, cueto, volquez, wood, bailey, and sometimes leake does not strike fear in my heart….i think they all have the potiential to regress (arroyo, cueto, volquez, leake), not live up to projections (wood), or continue to just not have it figured out (bailey)
of course, I though last year’s cardinals team was going to win 95 games, and that didn’t happen
"Albert hits good pitches hard and bad pitches even harder. And when he gets in the batter's box, if you pray, then you start praying. And if you don't pray, you think about starting."--Brian Bannister
RIP Boog. FIRE TLR NOW
This is an unnecessarily pessemistic statement
That’d be like me saying that your rotation has the ability for serious injury (Carpenter, Waino, Westbrook), regression (Garcia) or continued suckiness (Lohse). Is it possible that the worst case scenario happens with all of these guys? Sure. Likely? Definitely not.
The difference is the Reds pitchers (save Arroyo) are all young and have room for improvement, where as the Cards starters (save Garcia) all seem to have maxed out their potential, and Carpenter is entering the “fall off a cliff” range of a pitcher’s career. Seems much more likely that regression could happen in the Cards rotation.
"Penus, stale beer, and day old hot dogs. Love it"--justin007000
I think you're being overly optimistic about all your young starters outperforming their projections.
I would guess that Vols is pretty pessimistic about our starting rotation at this point — most of us here at VEB are more than a little concerned.
However, he’s not being “overly pessimistic” about your rotation.
- Homer Bailey has been good for about 8 weeks (August ‘09, September ’10) of his big league career, and sub-par or injured the rest of the time….and he’s the only guy in your rotation with a projected xFIP below 4.00!
- Arroyo is due for a massive regression
- Cueto is as inconsistent as they come and rarely gets out of the 6th inning.
- Wood is due some massive regression considering that he’s a fly ball pitcher that’s pitching in that popsicle stand you call a ballpark. I mean 30.3% GB rate and 48% FB rate with only 6% of those fly balls going out of the ballpark? Something has to give — he started only 4 of his 17 games at GAB last year, which is just incredibly lucky considering that type of pitcher that he is.
- Volquez walked 5 hitters per nine innings last year — he has major control problems. Even in his breakout season he walked 4+ batters per 9. His strand rate was 75%, which is not horribly above average, but even a small regression when you’re walking one out of every 3 guys you face would be a significant amount of runs. I think he’s a great talent, but so is Chapman, and he walked the same amount of guys per 9 in AAA last year.
Aroldis Chapman is a left handed Nuke LaLoosh (which is to say, there’s no hot dog vendors or mascots hanging around the backstop when he’s pitching). He’s not ready for prime time yet, unless Ramon Hernandez is the Spanish speaking Crash Davis.
Now take all of that….and then add in the fact that the one and only Dusty F. Baker is your manager and that’s a recipe for disaster. The man has ruined more arms than Tom House.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
by fourstick on Mar 24, 2011 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I never said they would outperform their projections
I’m just saying that assuming every member of any starting rotation will either regress or get injured, especially when most of them are young, is overly pessimistic.
Also, you do a fine job of cherry picking numbers to support your ideas, but there are plenty of numbers to disagree. Look at Bailey’s K and BB percentages over the last 3 years. Arroyo looks like he’s due for a massive regression, but he is also a guy who has very consistently outperformed his FIP. There’s more than a small chance he’ll continue to do so. Wood’s FB and GB rates are a bit concerning, but he had much better rates in the minors and you are talking about a pretty small MLB sample size. It’s entirely possible his GB and FB rates will normalize, which could offset any regression of HR/FB rates. Your right, Volquez is wild. But he managed a low 3s ERA in 2008 with high walk rates. And quoting a walk rate for a small period right after a guy returns from TJ surgery is extremely unfair. Everyone is wild right after TJ.
I also love your analysis of Chapman. Very well reasoned and supported.
"Penus, stale beer, and day old hot dogs. Love it"--justin007000
I'm cherry picking?
- Where are you getting he batted ball rates for Wood in the minors? His minor league scouting report labels him a fly ball pitcher. So either you’re making stuff up or you have some data that I can’t find.
- Homer Baileys K/BB for the last three years is 1.85. Is that supposed to make me shudder? It jumped to 2.50 in 2010, mostly on the back of 4 starts. The other 15 starts were right about where he was the previous season. Has it improved? Yes. Has he ever thrown more than 100 innings without breaking down? Um, no. Plus, Dusty Baker, Dusty Baker, Dusty Baker. I heard that Mark Prior guy was awesome too….
- So as long as you strike out 11 guys per 9 and keep your ERA in the low 3’s, it’s ok with walk 5 hitters every 9 innings? You’re quoting rate stats to defend Bailey (albeit poorly I might add) and then throwing them out the window with Volquez, stating that “he’s good because his ERA is good”. And yes, most guys have trouble with wildness after Tommy John. You should be concerned about his wildness his entire career before Tommy John though.
I was trying to make a joke about Chapman (sorry, apparently all humor is lost on you when criticizing the Reds), but there’s a lot of baseball scouts far better at this than myself concerned about whether he can harness his control well enough to become a starter. There’s a long line of hard throwers who had trouble doing exactly that. I think he’s a one of a kind talent, but he’s not fucking Sandy Koufax just yet either, ok?
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
We both are cherry picking. The point is there's no way to know for sure if guys are going to get worse or better. Assuming all 6 will get worse is kind of dumb.
Wood is a flyball pitcher, but not nearly as extreme as he was last year in the bigs.
I agree Homer could be fool’s gold. Still his K/BB rates have steadily improved each of the last three years. And seriously, put the “Baker ruins arms” thing to rest. It’s really a tired argument at this point. Is TLR to blame for Wainright?
I’m not saying Volquez is going to be an ace, but he has been effective with the walks because he Ks so many. He’s no superstar, but he can be a very effective pitcher.
"Penus, stale beer, and day old hot dogs. Love it"--justin007000
I'm not assuming anything, just stating that there are some red flags, and you don't have a true #1 starter on your team.
If they perform EXACTLY as projected, you’ll have 6 starters make 12 or more starts and none of them will be worth 3 WAR. So, why is Vols being “overly pessimistic” again?
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Because 6 league average starters seems really, really good to me.
Yet people are talking like it’s a bad thing.
There isn’t another rotation in the NL, save maybe the Phillies, who have 5 league average starters with a 6th just waiting in reserve.
"Penus, stale beer, and day old hot dogs. Love it"--justin007000
It is a good thing, but having a staff full of #3 starters doesn't win you divisions either, if history is a guide.
Depth is a good thing. Comparing to the Phillies though? Come on. Their 5th starter (Blanton) would be the #3 starter on the Reds staff, not to mention that they have 4 pitchers projected to be better than 4.4 WAR this season. The Reds have nobody projected to be worth a full run less than that.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
x
It is a good thing, but having a staff full of #3 starters doesn’t win you divisions either, if history is a guide.
It did last year.
"Penus, stale beer, and day old hot dogs. Love it"--justin007000
by nycredsfan on Mar 24, 2011 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
It did
They also scored more runs than anyone else in the National League. Are you saying that the Cincy offense is going to be as good or better than last year? Because the Reds were .500 in 1 run games last year and went 27-16 in blowouts. Those numbers could break the opposite direction this year and you end up an 80 win team.
Historically, it just isn’t done very often, and you think your team is going to do it for two years in a row? I doubt it — not without at least one starter having an ace type season.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
not saying anything.
You said a staff full of #3 starters doesn’t win you divisions. I’m saying there’s more than one way to skin a cat.
"Penus, stale beer, and day old hot dogs. Love it"--justin007000
Also, it's very typical for good teams to be about .500 in 1 run games and very good in blowouts
It’s when a team has an exceptionally good record in close games but a bad record in blowouts that you should be concerned.
"Penus, stale beer, and day old hot dogs. Love it"--justin007000
You're right, the Cardinals have a lot of guys with track records.
But we also aren’t projecting incredible leaps in talent from any of our starters either. We know the hand we’ve been dealt. The difference is that if our guys all hit their projections we’ll have a 4 WAR starter in Carpenter and a 3 WAR starter in Garcia. Westbrook projects to be a 2.5 WAR guy (but was a 4 WAR guy for Cleveland for 3 years straight before getting hurt), Lohse hopefully a 1 WAR guy, and who knows about our fifth starter. Our top 3 project at 9.5 WAR. Your top 3 project at 7.4 WAR, and we have a better pitcher’s park on our side too.
Sure, you have younger pitchers who have some talent, but that doesn’t mean that we should ignore the projections when comparing staffs. I’m pessimistic that Garcia can throw 200 innings and really worried about our depth considering all the injury problems our staff has had and the fact that we really only have one other MLB ready starter in AAA to start the year (Lance Lynn).
FWIW, TLR and Duncan don’t have a track record of overusing young arms to the point where they fall off. Dusty Baker does. He ran Jason Schmidt and Russ Ortiz into the ground. Same with Wood, Clement, and Prior. Aaron Harang looked very promising but has lost a good amount of zip on his fastball. Sure, there’s no evidential causation here, but that’s a lot of good young pitchers who were done by the time they turned 30, all managed by a guy who has stated repeatedly that “he doesn’t care about pitch counts” and “he likes his young starters to learn how to finish games”.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
The stuff with the Cubs pitchers is WAY overrated by a bunch of Cubs fans bitter that their team keeps sucking
Prior was a time bomb.
Dusty has been really good about managing the workload of the Reds’ young starters. Very rarely do they go more than 110 or so pitches, and they have been very willing to give guys extra rest or shut them down if they are showing signs of fatigue. They’ve done it with Cueto and Leake already.
I just think ever blaming a manager for pitcher injury is kind of ridiculous. Pitchers get injured, period. It’s just a convenient meme that’s been started that gets trotted out anytime someone gets injured.
And FTR, Harang’s FB velocity was fine the last couple years. He just became extremely hittable. I’m sure that’s Dusty’s fault, though.
"Penus, stale beer, and day old hot dogs. Love it"--justin007000
FTR - You're wrong on Harang, but hey, whatever.
2005 -2007 his fastball averaged 92.7 mph (Scouting report since I don’t have pitch F/X data).
Post – 2007 his fastball averaged 90.6 mph.
That’s a pretty significant drop off from his 4+ WAR days. You can also see that the pitch isn’t as effective as it once was here. I generally don’t put a lot of stock in those pitch values on Fangraphs, but that one seems especially damning year to year.
I think he’s lost some steam and it’s not allowing him to throw the ball by guys in the middle of the plate anymore — those balls are now getting hit. It’s also quite possible that he doesn’t hide the ball as well as he used to and that further complicates the loss of velocity.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Your data isn't accurate
According to fangraphs, his FB velo has been very consistent between 90-91 mph every year since 2004.
Also, his FB was never his out pitch. It was always his slider, and I agree that it lost a lot of bite the last couple seasons. I’m not ready to blame that on Dusty though. Pitchers lose their effectiveness. I happens. Dusty is just a convenient scapegoat.
"Penus, stale beer, and day old hot dogs. Love it"--justin007000
I only see velo data from 2007 to present
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
Twitter | Gas House Graphs
you guys are looking at different data
pitch f/x says one thing, fangraphs says another.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of fang are Asian." -Mike Shannon
I'm not sure where Fangraphs gets their data
but it doesn’t match up with pitch f/x data from 2007-2010, so I’ll trust me source.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Every year
I think that Arroyo is going to regress and he keeps on keepin on. I’m assuming he won’t so maybe that means he will.
he might be endurant
but his numbers are not all that impressive imo
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 24, 2011 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions
His peripherals sure aren't
But he somehow just keeps being effective (sub 4 era the last 2 years)
I’ll be the first to admit he seems like a ticking timebomb, but at a “crafty” type who has never relied on velocity, I’d say it’s at least possible he continues to outperform his FIP (something he has done 4 of his 5 seasons as a Red)
Also, there’s a lot to be said for a guy who has thrown over 200 innings each of the last 6(!) seasons.
"Penus, stale beer, and day old hot dogs. Love it"--justin007000
yeah, he's definitely an overachiever type
I remember not so long ago that he wasn’t that great, but I am impressed by his endurance and gameface, for lack of a better term.
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 24, 2011 7:17 PM EDT up reply actions
FWIW, he's about due for a regression
He’s now had two sub-4.00 ERA seasons in a row despite having a worse FIP than ‘07-’08 when his ERA was 4.77 and 4.23.
And believe it or not, he hasn’t outperformed his FIP his whole career. In just ’08, he had a 4.77 ERA (4.50 FIP), ’05 with a 4.51 ERA (4.43 FIP), ’04 with a 4.03 ERA (3.82 FIP), ’02 with a 4.05 ERA (3.49 FIP), and lastly 2000 with a 6.40 ERA (5.23 FIP)
That would be 5 times in his 11-year-career. Only two of those seasons does he have less than 70 innings and one is outperforming and one is under performing.
The fact that Arroyo has significantly outperformed his FIP two years in a row does not really mean much. Certainly doesn’t mean he’ll do it again and defy logic and stats.
I would have him at a 4.50 ERA for this season with 200 IP. That is extremely valuable though so he’ll probably be worth same as past (Amazing he pitches 200 IP and is only 1.7 fWAR)
"And a boring game for boring people. Did you ever watch golf on television? It's like watching flies FUCK. Think of the intellect it must take to draw pleasure from this activity: hitting a ball with a crooked stick and then WALKING AFTER IT" -George Carlin
by stlcardsfan4 on Mar 25, 2011 4:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Not for nothing,
but Bruce has “been primed for a breakout” each of the last two years (and I’ve fallen for this both times)….and has failed to come up with one. I think he’s getting to the “he is what he is” point of his career — he’s not a superstar, just an above average 3TO guy with average/slightly-above-average defense in RF. FWIW, I think Rasmus may fall in this category as well, but he’s quite a bit younger than Bruce, so there’s still some superstar potential there — I think that he might be more Andy Van Slyke than Jim Edmonds, but Andy Van Slyke was still a valuable player for just short of a decade, so things could be worse.
I think Votto is a .410-.420 wOBA guy when healthy, and I think his health is the major concern, not a regression. I also can’t believe that Todd Frazier is not the backup at 3B (he can play some SS too, can he not?) in favor of the worthless Cairo — but then again, Dusty loves his worthless veteran players with heart and no head (Gomes!!!) almost as much as TLR loves his gritty worthless middle infielders with smarts but no talent (Gallego, Miles).
I think the depth of your team is it’s biggest advantage, as you said. But I think it’s an advantage for a different reason: It gives you multiple assets to make that splash deal around the All-Star break, and you have the OF flexibility to acquire one of the potential year end FA as a rental (Beltran, Cuddyer, DeJesus, Willingham) and upgrade that position for the stretch run. If I’m Jocketty, I’m calling the Nationals every day starting on June 1st trying to pry Josh Willingham away for a couple of minor leaguers — he’s the perfect guy to play LF for you: He’s very good defensively, can hit second or sixth, gets on base at a high rate, and doesn’t have horrible platoon splits so he can play every day.
What scares me most about the 2011 Reds is that they have a lot of high upside pitching (although with Dusty in control, it’s possible that this could be a weakness as well) and the available studs on the potential trade market fit very nicely into their current roster and have the minor league talent to be able to get one of those guys.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
by fourstick on Mar 21, 2011 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Ummm
Rasmus is 8 months older than bruce
"Albert hits good pitches hard and bad pitches even harder. And when he gets in the batter's box, if you pray, then you start praying. And if you don't pray, you think about starting."--Brian Bannister
RIP Boog. FIRE TLR NOW
by VolsnCards5 on Mar 22, 2011 8:01 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Willingham looked clumsy on defense
at least to me and he seems pretty slow although that might have had to do with his health. Nats are the wrong team to call though.
Defensive metrics beg to differ with you
“Looking clumsy to ol Pete” is about as anecdotal as evidence gets.
BTW — would you still rather have your bevy of shitty catching prospects or Buster Posey?
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
"Defensive metrics" sure does sound convincing
Of course its laughably bad in conception and its execution is unknown. But if you want to have faith in it, go for it. Its not like my opinion on Willingham is unique.
I have no idea what you’re talking about with the Posey thing, you’re probably confusing me with someone else. I can’t even name the prospects in the system at catcher. They have one starter who I like, a backup they picked up on waivers and some guy in rookie ball who supposedly impresses scouts.
Comparable to other players at his position, he turns an above average number of balls hit to LF into outs.
He just doesn’t look good doing it. Well, neither did Vlad Guerrero for a lot of years, but he was pretty good in RF in his younger days. I’ll trust metrics before I trust your anecdotal opinion. One of them is based on science. The other one could be based on that game that you saw him play that one time when they were playing the Brewers.
As far as Posey, I proposed last year that the Brewers should look to deal Prince Fielder for Posey and Bumgarner and you made the case that you didn’t like Posey or Bumgarner and that the Brewers had 2 catchers in the high minors that were better than Posey was. Just wondering if you still feel that way…
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
FOURSTICK NEVER FORGETS
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of fang are Asian." -Mike Shannon
by Alxfritz on Mar 24, 2011 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Holliday looks rather clumsy on defense
and we know he’s not that bad.
by WizardofOz1982 on Mar 28, 2011 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not sure why health would be a concern with Votto
He missed time 2 years ago due to anxiety, but that is, by all accounts, past him now. Physically, he’s a much better bet to hold up than Pujols is.
Bruce is way higher than slightly above average in RF. Look at ANY defensive metric and he grades out as top 5 in the entire MLB. And FWIW, Bruce has steadily improved his plate discipline, BB rate, etc each year in the bigs. He hit more homers against lefties last year than all but a few players in the bigs. He’s putting it together, and he’s not yet 23 (like Vols said, younger than Rasmus), way too soon for the “he is what he is” part of his career.
"Penus, stale beer, and day old hot dogs. Love it"--justin007000
Could he break out? Sure, he could...
…I’m just saying that he seems more likely to be a .280/.360/.500 guy going forward, and that’s a pretty valuable guy. With his defense in RF, that’s a 3.5-4 WAR player — basically JD Drew without all the injuries. He might have an 8 WAR season in his prime, like Drew did, but I think he’s going to be a 4 WAR guy consistently, not a 6-7 WAR guy.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
That line you posted is almost exactly what he did in 2010 (.281/.353/.493) and he was a 5.3 WAR player
And if you think there’s no room for offensive improvement from a 23 year old with a career minors OPS of .917 (all before age 20), then you are very pessimistic about offensive aging curves.
"Penus, stale beer, and day old hot dogs. Love it"--justin007000
Like I said, a pretty valuable guy
But I don’t think he’s ever going to be Jim Edmonds (‘01-’05), which is what you seem to be saying. I’m not sayin there’s no room, I’m saying that I think he’s a guy who’s not going to improve much more than that.
- He’s not likely to hit .300 in the MLB, even though he did this in the minor leagues. This is not unheard of.
- He’s not likely to improve his walk rate to better than 12%. His highest in the minors was 10%.
- He has the ability to slug .550 or better but hasn’t done it yet.
I think you’re entire line of reasoning is based off of his last 6 weeks of 2010, when he had a 1.100 OPS. Well, he did the same thing the last 4 weeks of 2009….and the last 4 weeks of 2008. Matt Holliday is a great second half player too. Maybe you can put fallen leaves in his locker with college football scores and convince him it’s September every month of the season or something.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Oh, and that 5.3 WAR is based mostly on a 19.6 UZR
I think he might be a one win player consistently in RF, but he’s more than likely NOT a 2 win player out there defensively. In 2500 innings, Total Zone has him at +10 runs and UZR has him at +10 runs. That’s really, really good, but it’s not 2 wins worth.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Fine, I'll grant your completely unsupported opinion that he's not as good in RF as the metrics indicate.
Still, that makes him easily over a 4 win player, without improving on offense one bit.
He slugged .587 over three minors levels as a 20 year old. He hasn’t approached that as a big leaguer yet, but his SLG has risen each year as a Red. Of course he may not ever slug .550, but to assume he won’t is folly. If he puts up a .280/.350/.580 with +10-15 RAA defense that is an extremely valuable player. It’s not definite, but it’s entirely possible he’ll do that.
"Penus, stale beer, and day old hot dogs. Love it"--justin007000
Um, the metrics indicate that he's a 10 run RF, so it's you who has the unsubstantiated opinions here, not me.
I also never said that he wasn’t going to be a valuable player, I’m saying that he’s not likely to ever be a consistent 6-7 WAR player. Hey, I’d love to have a healthy JD Drew for the next 10 years.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Again with the strawman.
I never said anywhere in this thread that he’d be a 6-7 WAR player.
"Penus, stale beer, and day old hot dogs. Love it"--justin007000
You said he's not a "he is what he is" guy
He is projected to be a 4 WAR player this year. He was a 5 WAR player last year. Sorry if I implied by your statement that you were making the case that he could be a 6 WAR player in the future.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
I'm saying that, offensively, he hasn't maxed out, which is what you claim.
All this about a guy who OPSed .917 in the minors, has improved each year in the bigs, and is not yet 24. Seems overly pessimistic.
"Penus, stale beer, and day old hot dogs. Love it"--justin007000
Then you're saying that at some point he's going to be a 6 WAR player
consistently. So you’re refuting what you’re claiming, or what?
This is an endless circular argument.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Especially considering that I've been saying the same thing the whole time and you keep changing your tune.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
I missed you, fourstick.
http://fuckyeahnouns.com/alex%20fritz
by hazel on Mar 24, 2011 10:59 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Also
What’s the MLE for sluggin .587 in the minors? Oh, right, around .520 or so.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Wow. MLE is about the most useless stat ever.
And even if we go by MLE, that means he should be SLG .520 in the bigs as a 20 YEAR OLD. I think as he gets older a bit more slugging is entirely possible.
"Penus, stale beer, and day old hot dogs. Love it"--justin007000
It is entirely possible.
I would guess maybe he does get a bit more power than he’s shown as of yet. Again, it’s like you make an argument and then you refute your own argument and then apply your original argument to me.
If you want to keep arguing with yourself, just reply to your posts.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Whatever, man. This was a civil discussion, no need to get pissy.
"Penus, stale beer, and day old hot dogs. Love it"--justin007000
No, a civil discussion is one where
both parties have a point and go about proving those points. I think I’ve done a very good job of asserting my position with good evidence
Your position continues to change with the wind and you keep quoting statistics that either aren’t predictable (i.e. “he slugged this in the minors”) or are subjective in nature (i.e. he’s better than defensive metrics suggest because “he just looks good out there, gets good jumps, etc.” (anecdotal) or “elite corner outfielders should be able to play average defense in center field” (unsubstantiated by evidence) or “I saw Bruce in CF and he was really good out there”(anecdotal).
My position, as it’s been from the beginning:
- Defensively, he’s a one win corner outfielder after 2500 innings by two different defensive metrics. That’s pretty good and it’s also pretty definitive. I don’t see how you can argue that he will always be better than that, when history shows that’s simply not true for multiple players. Very, very few guys can every consistently be 2 win defensive players in the outfield.
- Offensively, I think he’s a moderate 3TO guy with above average BA ability than most 3TO guys have. Like I said, I think his ceiling is JD Drew, which is a consistent 4-5 WAR corner outfielder, who might frustrate the shit out of his fans because they always think he’s going to have the breakout season and never does. I do think that he’s probably not ever going to have an OBP above .380 in the big leagues and he’s not likely to ever slug .600 either. But a good defensive .900 OPS guy in the corner outfield is nothing to shake a stick at either.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
FWIW, if his ceiling is Drew, like I believe it is
Then it also substantiates my other point, in that he’s already at that level.
Sure, he might have that one great outlier 8 WAR season, but he’s not going to have a 5 year span where he’s 6-7 WAR guy either.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Ok, fine. Take the 1 win value on defense.
But your offensive assertion has no evidence. You say he’s a 3TO guy. Based on what? He has always hit for high average, hasn’t struck out an obscene amount, and until recently hasn’t walked that much either.
His numbers indicate he’s a high BA guy (due to very good BABIP skills) with above average power. You haven’t really provided ANY evidence that he has maxed out his offensive potential, other than some vague feeling that he’s another Stephen Drew. Based on what? The fact that he tore up the minor leagues as a teenager? The fact that he has steadily progressed and improved as one of the youngest players in the bigs? The fact that he’s at least 3 years away from his prime still, but is already a 4 win player? I don’t see any evidence that he won’t improve, but lots that he could.
"Penus, stale beer, and day old hot dogs. Love it"--justin007000
You've provided no evidence that he'll get any better at the big league level.
Other than, he’s young, he’ll get better!!!! Yeah, Cubs fans said the same thing about Jerome Walton too.
Unless you want me to take his hitting in the minors at full value, in which case I’d point you to about a thousand guys who’ve just crushed minor league pitching and couldn’t hit that well in the big leagues.
I’ve quoted tons of evidence to support my opinion:
- He’s unlikely to hit .300 (or even .290) consistently in MLB. His .281 last year was driven by some BABIP luck (.331 last year), and his minors OBP was driven by massive BABIP inflation (over .400?!?!) Some of that is talent, but a good portion of it is also just luck, and he hasn’t had that type of luck in the MLB until last year. I don’t think this is a huge issue as you can be really valuable without hitting for a high average. Also, I don’t know where you’re getting this BABIP “skill” — you need a much longer MLB track record to start attributing skill to having an above average BABIP. Considering Bruce wasn’t above .300 in the majors until last year, I’d say we have a way to go before we can start calling this a skill.
- His walk rate at any point in his career has never been higher than 10%. Sure, it could improve, but it’s unlikely it gets to 12% on a consistent basis. The cases of players suddenly improving their plate discipline by an order of magnitude, even when they’re young like Bruce, is fairly rare. They do exist, but they are rare.
- He DOES strike out quite a bit. He’s not Mark Reynolds, but a 25+ K% is quite a bit, especially when you don’t walk a ton either. Rasmus is the same way, but he walks at around a 12% clip since the start of his minor league career, with a minor blip during his rookie season.
- Bruce hits some tape measure home runs, that’s true, and I think he can hit 30 homers in the show. His ISO would have to get to around .250 consistently if he’s going to slug at a high rate. He did this in his cartoonish stint in the minors, and he did it last year, so I would be willing to concede that he could be a 30-40 HR .550-.600 slugger in the future. But it’s not what I think is going to happen and he’s not done it yet in the big leagues, so projecting that he’s going to do that is really just you extrapolating his minor league numbers into your own subjective opinion. You can do that, but you can’t argue with someone who doesn’t share that opinion then either.
I’ve just been waiting for you to go: “Hey, wait, I think I’m ok with having a healthy JD Drew in my team’s RF spot for the next decade”. Because I’d take that guy every day of the week for what you’re paying Jay Bruce.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
I mean
either refute what I’m saying point by point or just concede that his ceiling might be a 5 WAR player (again, there were only about, what, 12 of those guys in the MLB last year?) but that you think he could make some drastic improvements to get to that next level.
I’m perfectly ok with that. What I can’t stand is someone saying: “I disagree that his ceiling is a 5 WAR player, but I’m not saying he’s a 6 WAR player.” Well, what is your point then?
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
So,
—The fact that his minors BABIP was .357 in 1359 ABs doesn’t constitute some sort of skill? Obviously he had some BABIP issues as a very young MLBer, but I think that is somewhat normal. It’s possible that his .331 BABIP last year was lucky, but I don’t think there’s anything in the numbers to indicate that it DEFINITELY is lucky (or even likely is). I’m not saying he’s going to BABIP .360 the rest of his career, but your assertion that he’s not likely to repeat his BABIP skill from 2010 doesn’t have any statistical support either.
—I don’t think his walk rate will get to 12% necessarily, but the last 2 years he has almost 1000 PAs of a 10% walk rate. At some point you have to accept that that is his skill level. To assume he won’t maintain that is, again, not supported by evidence.
—Fine, he strikes out a lot (around 25%). That doesn’t matter if he has very good power, which brings me to my original, consistent, and repeatedly stated point….
-His power is the key. I think around .280/.355.360ish is probably about where he’ll sit as a hitter. But I’m saying the power could easily take off. We’re talking about a guy who had a minors ISO of .243 as a mostly teenager and who had a .246 ISO in the bigs in 2009 as a 22 year old. He hurt his wrist in July of 2009, but once he was a full year removed from that, his power absolutely took off last summer. It’s entirely reasonable to think that he’ll be able to slug .530-550, which would give him a .280/.355/.540ish type line. That’s much better than anything he’s done so far. Ergo, he hasn’t maxed out offensively.
As far as WAR, I don’t really care what he gets. Maybe he ends up with that line but UZR rates him badly one year. Or maybe they rate him +20 again and you call it a fluke. Whatever. Point is, there is much more evidence that he’s got a lot more offense in him than there is that he has already peaked.
"Penus, stale beer, and day old hot dogs. Love it"--justin007000
You're just grasping at straws here:
- As far as BABIP goes, you have to consider one year of BABIP lucky until proven otherwise. Take this guy for example: He has a minor league BABIP of .340 — I’m just supposed to assume that he’ll be able to carry that over to the big league level? I mean, as Cardinals fans, we’d love to do that (we’d have no need for Lance Berkman to play against lefties). As baseball people trying to make a prediction, that’s just a ludicrous assumption. You could say the same thing about this guy. I don’t really care what age he did it at, the plain fact is that above average BABIP is not predictable from the minors to the majors or even in the majors until a significant sample of AB’s is reached. Regressions have been run on this and have not shown any correlation. You can use it to support your argument, but it’s easy to refute because it’s not a predictable measure in any statistically relevant way.
- I never said he couldn’t maintain a 10% walk rate. So this is straw man. I did say he most likely won’t get to 12%, and that’s going to be detrimental to his OBP if he can’t maintain an above average BABIP to hit better than .250. As it is, he’s got to hit .280 or better to have an OBP above .350. If he has a .250 BA, his OBP drops to about .320 or so. So he’d then have to slug around .600 to be worth 4+ wins on offense. About that….
- I agree that his power is key. I do think that he could slug .550 in the majors, I’ve basically conceded that point. However, as I’ve noted above, I don’t think he can maintain a .280 average or a .350 OBP consistently without significant BABIP luck due to his walk rate, although it’s within the realm of possibility.
So again, we’re back to: His upside is probably JD Drew. And JD Drew, when healthy, IS A REALLY VALUABLE PLAYER. His downside? Probably late career Andre Dawson: Lots of power, but limited plate discipline and limited ability to hit for average.
Lastly, I didn’t say that he’d already peaked, I said that he is what he is — he’s not going to be a 1.000 OPS guy except in short stretches where his BABIP gets north of .360. He’s probably a 4-5 WAR player given his good defense. You seem to think that I’m saying that he’s not going to hit more home runs or something. I think he could hit 40 consistently at some point, actually. But I DON’T think that he’s going to OBP at .380+ or hit better than .290 for a full season. So his offensive improvement is tied strictly to his power, and if he’s not able to ISO .250 or better he has limited upside. In other words, he’s never going to turn in a season like Joey Votto had in 2010.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Also, I'm not interested in a pissing contest here, but
Civility has nothing to do with being right. It has everything to do with being civil and respectful.
"Penus, stale beer, and day old hot dogs. Love it"--justin007000
I'm trying to be a civil as possible
It’s just really difficult when you position keeps changing all the time, and when you use one set of statistics to make one point and then refute those same statistics to make your next point.
You can’t have it objectively both ways. Your judgment that he’s going to get better is purely subjective in nature. That’s all I’m saying.
And yes, I’d call him a marginal 3TO guy, in that he’s not going to be a high average hitter at the big league level. In fact, he’d probably be a more valuable player by trying to work more walks and focus on crushing his pitches. But that’s just my opinion.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
I don't think anyone who hits .280 can be considered a 3TO guy
"Penus, stale beer, and day old hot dogs. Love it"--justin007000
My definition is different from yours then:
K% > 25%
Slug > .500
BB% > 10%
I mean, guys like Cust, Dunn, and Reynolds are EXTREME 3TO guys, but I think the Mark McGwire was a 3TO guy and he hit .300 one year — mostly because a lot of his hits were going over the fence.
Honestly, I think he’d be a better player if he was more of a 3TO guy. I think if his plate discipline could improve and get him north of a 12% BB rate, his slugging would go way up as well, because he could sit on pitches he can drive and just crush the shit out of them.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
"both parties have a point and go about proving those points"
To be fair, fourstick, that describes an argument in the classical sense. But a “civil discussion” is one where tone stays respectful and polite, and I don’t know if that’s an accurate way to describe this discussion between you two. I’m not saying either one of you is to blame or something, but it’s clearly not entirely civil.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
I don't where I'm attacking him and not his argument
And of the comment in question here, this is pretty much exactly what he’s been doing through most of this argument.
I’ve laid out the relevant points pretty well — I’ve yet to see any of them refuted with evidence that holds up to scrutiny and is not just subjective and anecdotal.
And I remain fascinated that a person with Joey Votto on their roster is not ok with having a guy with JD Drew’s ceiling as the second fiddle. It’s like a healthy JD Drew isn’t good enough or something…
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
I mean
I thought I was being complimentary by comparing him to Drew talent wise. Drew is one of the most talented left handed hitters I’ve seen in person He does everything well, his swing is flawless. It’s just too bad that he couldn’t have stayed healthy.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
If that is his ceiling, I'm totally OK with it.
I’m not OK with arbitrary comparisons that don’t really have any statistical backing.
I mean, Jay Bruce has a career .800 OPS with 68 HR at the age of 23.
At age 23 Drew had 18 career homers and OPSed .763 in his age 23 season.
"Penus, stale beer, and day old hot dogs. Love it"--justin007000
This is amazing:
I’m not OK with arbitrary comparisons that don’t really have any statistical backing.
I, nrcredsfan, will now MAKE ONE OF THOSE to prove how much I hate them.
Drew also went to college, got drafted, played I-League ball for a year so he didn’t have to play for the Phillies, then got drafted by the Cardinals, THEN hit the big leagues 5 months later and had a .576 wOBA for the month of September. Now, if you compare them at the same point in their big league careers, Drew hit .295/.401/.479 in his second full season and .323/.414/.613 in his third season and WAS WORTH 5.9 WAR IN 109 GAMES. If he had played a full season of games that year, he projects to have been worth around 8 WAR.
I mean, you either just really fucking hate JD Drew, or you would should accept that this is a compliment of Jay Bruce.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
It could just be yet another "hard to tell one's tone on the internet" thing
It seemed to me it was getting a little more heated than necessary, that’s all.
Anyway, I don’t usually leap into stuff like this but I’ve been following the conversation (a very good one I think).
Hope I didn’t offend or anything.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
I just took whatever they had on fangraphs.com
I wonder how you’d adjust on that. I think the exercise still illustrates the point that it’s a 3 team race. I welcome any revisions.
I like Kyle Lohse and Jon Jay
turn it up to '11
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 14, 2011 8:19 PM EDT up reply actions
as a general rule one estimates that a reliever will be one run per 9 innings pitched worse as a starter.
what a turd
I like Kyle Lohse and Jon Jay
turn it up to '11
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 15, 2011 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I like how I can undrstand this.
A lot oftimes I don’t really get all of the statistical stuff but I understood this post very well. Very well-written!
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
"If I do it wrong just break another toe. Three's my lucky number anyway." -Evan Lysacek: 2010 Olympic Gold Medalist ♥
thanks!
I go for trying to explain with clarity, as if I had not had much exposure to sabermetrics. the only thing I left out was an explanation of wOBA, but I think most of us have a grasp of what that is by now (most similar to OPS but with statistical weights and other accuracy correcting measures)
I like Kyle Lohse and Jon Jay
turn it up to '11
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 15, 2011 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions
well, it's not like I understand it all that well
I feel fairly confident I get the basic concepts. but I’m not good at going beyond and tweaking the stats to be more accurate, or prove a point, etc. It was fun doing the Offensive Ability Rating exercise though. I’m glad I got it to the point of being about as accurate in OPS, as VEP once said. I was going to do it again this year, but A it was too much work, B wOBA is already there, and C this exercise is pretty fun (finding the average of the projections, much less time consuming).
and thanks for reading!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 15, 2011 11:25 PM EDT up reply actions
matt holliday will be worth more than joey votto this summer.
follow me on twitter @nickg105
by stlcardinalsfang on Mar 16, 2011 11:54 AM EDT reply actions
Only if Matt Holliday spikes Votto while rounding first in April...
and Votto throws a huge hissy fit, throws out his back, and is out for 3 months.
Votto is the real deal — he just has to stay healthy.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Greinke will not put up 6.0 fWAR this year
i just have a feeling…he won’t be a bust….but he won’t be a super-stud either
How’s that for backing up my opinion with factual analysis?
"Albert hits good pitches hard and bad pitches even harder. And when he gets in the batter's box, if you pray, then you start praying. And if you don't pray, you think about starting."--Brian Bannister
RIP Boog. FIRE TLR NOW
This really highlights the disaster that was the Wainwright injury.
You replace McClellan with WW and we’re the best team on paper easily. With him out, we’re now behind the Brewers (who I think may be underrated here, due to Hart, Weeks, and whoever catches for them likely to outperform those projections, imo) and barely ahead of Cincy.
The Brewers team is downright scary due to the things I mentioned above, and the phenomenal upgrade they made to their pitching staff. They went from “Gallardo & Pray for Rain” to what might be the 3rd or 4th best staff in the NL (with Philly, Atlanta, and SFO right there too). Marcum is a good bet to be a 4.5+ WAR pitcher if healthy — he’s pitched his whole career in the AL East, so transitioning into the NL Central should bump him a bit without any improvement in performance. If the Greinke/Marcum K/BB can rub off on Yovani Gallardo at all you’ll have a top 3 that nobody in the league is going to want to face in any series.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
they're starting rotation is a monster
fwiw, Marcum has had “shoulder tightness” all spring
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 21, 2011 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions
No way Marcum is a 4.5+ WAR pitcher if healthy
His best season ever (last year) was 3.5 WAR in ~200 innings. For him to be 4.5+ WAR he would need to stave off any regression to the mean (and his past performance) and get 1+ WAR bump from moving to the NL. Neither are likely.
Skip Schumaker is a scapegoat
by vivaelpujols on Mar 22, 2011 1:16 AM EDT up reply actions
I will remember this post when it happens.
The track record of pitchers moving from the AL East to the NL shows a significant aggregate bump in WAR.
FWIW — “a good bet” doesn’t mean “will happen”, just that if you were betting on someone to have a career year this year, he would be a very good bet. The fans at Fangraphs have him pegged at 3.8 WAR in 31 starts and 195 innings. So it’s not a huge stretch to say that he could get to 4.5 with another start and a small improvement in performance from last year.
You’re saying that he can’t bump himself ~0.7 WAR by changing leagues? 15 of his 31 starts last year were against Boston, NYY, Tampa, Minnesota, or Texas. Those teams were 5 of the top 6 run scoring teams in MLB in 2010 (The Reds were 4th). For the most part, he dominated league average offenses last year and struggled mightily against the elite offensive clubs, as nearly any pitcher not named Roy Halladay would.
I’ll stick with my prediction, thanks, even if it doesn’t work on a spreadsheet.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
I agree that players who move from the Al East to the NL Central will experience a significant bump in performance
You could probably even say it’s as high as 1 WAR per 200 innings. But that would require a 3.5 WAR baseline projection, which I think is far too optimistic. The only time he has ever reached that level of performance was last year – before that he was more a 2 WAR guy. The Fans projections don’t mean particularly much to me, The Hardball Times’ projection system has him at 3.7 WAR, and I’m almost 100% sure that already includes the league adjustment.
I’d say he’s about as good a bet to be worth 4.5 WAR as Jaime Garcia is. Regardless I don’t know why you would discuss a projection of player other than his median one.
Skip Schumaker is a scapegoat
by vivaelpujols on Mar 24, 2011 3:11 AM EDT up reply actions
Maybe because I think he's a candidate to break out this season.
So I don’t really give a shit what the projection system says is his “baseline”, which, funny as it may seem, isn’t worth a hill of beans for guys like this (one full season off an injury) Projection systems are built to be the “least wrong”, so they play it safe for the most part. I think you need far more of a track record for Marcum before you can start saying definitively that he’s “going to be worth X”.
Sure, if you want to be 78.57643% sure that something is going to happen, I should count on the metrics. Except that if we did this with Chris Carpenter prior to the 2005 season you would be giving me the exact same line:
- He’s never BEEN a 4 WAR starter.
- His best season didn’t sniff that.
- How can you project a guy to be a 4.5 WAR guy when he’s never been a 4 WAR guy?
Then he goes out and is a 4.5+ WAR starter the next two seasons. Projection systems are great, but they cannot project a breakout season. They aren’t designed to.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
In other words
You’re stating that what I’m saying “isn’t the most likely course of action”. I know that. That doesn’t mean I’m WRONG. It means that I think, after looking at his peripherals and noting that he pitched one of the toughest schedules as a starting pitcher last year, that he has a better than average chance of having a career year if he doesn’t succumb to injury.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
What is this based on?
Maybe because I think he’s a candidate to break out this season.
Saying projections can be wrong is not a valid reason. His peripherals and the fact that he pitched in the AL East are already taken into account in his projection.
Skip Schumaker is a scapegoat
by vivaelpujols on Mar 24, 2011 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Do the projections factor in that half his starts were against the top 5 offenses in baseball last year?
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Yes they factor in that he will be moving from the AL East to the NL Central
Skip Schumaker is a scapegoat
by vivaelpujols on Mar 25, 2011 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions
No, I'm talking SPECIFICALLY
which is something that the projection system isn’t going to be able to do.
I can’t remember a pitcher throwing half his starts against the 5 of the top 6 offenses in the entire major leagues in one season. I just think that’s a huge outlier. His peripherals look as good to me than someone like Cole Hamels, who’s projected as a 4.4 WAR pitcher.
Just call it a hunch. I think he has a very good year for them not facing murderers row type teams every other time out.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
You are arguing that Marcum has faced tougher competition than other AL East pitchers?
Skip Schumaker is a scapegoat
by vivaelpujols on Mar 25, 2011 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm arguing that no other AL East
pitcher threw 15 half his starts against 5 of the top 6 teams in runs scored last year. I’d venture to say that no pitcher in MLB threw half his starts against the top TEN teams in runs scored.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
FYI
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=672131
NOW WHAT?!
Skip Schumaker is a scapegoat
by vivaelpujols on Mar 26, 2011 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions
13/50 among AL starters with at least 150 innings pitched
Skip Schumaker is a scapegoat
by vivaelpujols on Mar 26, 2011 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions
What the fuck is a VORP
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
Twitter | Gas House Graphs
Bad WAR*10
Skip Schumaker is a scapegoat
by vivaelpujols on Mar 26, 2011 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Now THAT'S what I'm talking about
Had you put that up at the beginning this conversation would have been different.
Now, how many of the pitchers ahead of him changed leagues for 2011? I can’t find many: Shields, Davies….I don’t see any others. And, um, wow Clay Buchholz. ’Nuff said.
Also, it looks to me like, outside of Buchholz and Price, that Marcum had the 3rd best OPS against while facing the 13th toughest OPS against schedule. Pretty impressive, right? I mean, if you put him down near the average OPS against, it’s more than likely his performance could improve?
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
I never argued anything to the contrary
Skip Schumaker is a scapegoat
by vivaelpujols on Mar 29, 2011 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions
But you also didn't provide proof of your argument.
So I’m just stuck at taking your word for it…..when you won’t take mine.
FWIW, he did face a significantly tougher schedule than 70% of the starting pitchers in the AL East, and had the toughest schedule of any pitcher on the Blue Jays.
I stand by my original statement — I think he’s due for a career year and is a good bet to be a 4.5 WAR pitcher this season. I don’t see anything here that changes that.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Chris Carpenter also markedly changed his pitching style and skill.
It wasn’t the league adjustment that made him start poking his fastball up into the mid 90s and throwing a cutter. He also changed his approach under DD and became a ground ball pitcher as well.
Shaun Marcum is a marginal fly ball pitcher who already throws five or six pitches because he has to since he works in the mid to upper 80s. I can see him really bedeviling the Cardinals but I think the Reds will murder him in that small park.
http://fuckyeahnouns.com/alex%20fritz
I don't disagree with the analysis of Carpenter
My point was that the projection systems aren’t designed to account for this because statistically they can’t, and in the long run it really doesn’t matter as they’ll adjust to order of magnitude changes in performance if they happen. They’re predicting the most likely outcome — and that’s fine, I don’t have a quibble with it.
But to state that anyone projecting him to be better than that, while stating good evidence of his tough pitching schedule the previous season, is wrong is using the projection system as a weapon that it simply isn’t designed to be used for.
I think I made a pretty compelling case above.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
You have provided no evidence that Marcum should be expected to beat his projection
The only thing you’ve said is that he’s moving from the AL East to the NL Central, and the projections – at least the Hardball Times one – already take that into account.
Skip Schumaker is a scapegoat
by vivaelpujols on Mar 25, 2011 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Forget it
I’m not going to argue this with you. It gets old. Really old.
And no, the projection system isn’t doing what I’ve pointed out. It’s just taking an average based on league and adjusting. Well, he pitched half his starts against 5 of the best 6 offenses in baseball. Show me another pitcher who’s done that in the last 10 years and didn’t suffer because of it. Marcum had the best year of his career pitching that schedule. Therefore, I think that against weaker competition he’s going to be worth nearly a win more than he was last year. Key phrase: I think. I’m not doing some fancy mathematical model to prove it to you, I’m just expressing an opinion, just like the projection systems are.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
As an aside
I’m not a BP subscriber, but what is Marcum’s 75th percentile in PECOTA? How close is his 75 to 4.5 WAR? I’d guess that it’s pretty close.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
I love how quickly you resort to taking your ball and going home
And no, the projection system isn’t doing what I’ve pointed out. It’s just taking an average based on league and adjusting
It’s not league adjusting, it’s adjusting by division. Anyone who pitches in the AL East will get similar adjustment from moving to the NL Central. So unless you arguing that Marcum has faced tougher competition than other AL East pitchers, your argument does not hold.
I already said Marcum should get a huge bump in performance. I’ve also said that the bump is not enough to make him a 4.5 WAR pitcher. For that to happen he would have to sustain his career best performance from last year, and there is no evidence that he could do that.
Skip Schumaker is a scapegoat
by vivaelpujols on Mar 25, 2011 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Which, actually, IF YOU ACTUALLY READ MY COMMENTS, is the point I'm making.
So unless you arguing that Marcum has faced tougher competition than other AL East pitchers, your argument does not hold.
FFS!!!! Here’s my comment WAY BACK AT THE BEGINNING, which you’ve not alluded to at all, mostly because I think you have no way of refuting it with some spreadsheet induced number.
15 of his 31 starts last year were against Boston, NYY, Tampa, Minnesota, or Texas. Those teams were 5 of the top 6 run scoring teams in MLB in 2010 (The Reds were 4th
I take my ball and go home because:
- It’s pointless to argue with someone who’s made up his mind that he’s right and nobody else’s opinion can ever be more than DEAD WRONG unless he can come up with his own projection system that shows he’s right.
- There’s simply no reason I should have to prove THAT MY OPINION fits into your model. I don’t give a fuck about your model, I think I’ve made it abundantly clear.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
You still have not shown this
So unless you arguing that Marcum has faced tougher competition than other AL East pitchers, your argument does not hold.
All you’ve said is that he has faced tough competition, you haven’t shown that he has faced tougher competition than the average AL East starting pitcher.
Skip Schumaker is a scapegoat
by vivaelpujols on Mar 26, 2011 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions
FWIW
Stupid fucking arguments like this are why I don’t bother posting stuff anymore. I get tired of having to prove everything I post to the 99.9999999th percentile to not be considered ignorant and wrong. It just gets old.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
I don't give a shit Fourstick
Skip Schumaker is a scapegoat
by vivaelpujols on Mar 25, 2011 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions
God I love you guys
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
Twitter | Gas House Graphs
by mysterui on Mar 25, 2011 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Like the first Robin of Spring.
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Second base….I’ve played second base, how hard can it be? -TLR
Also, Dave Concepcion.
Then leave me the fuck alone
I think you’re wrong, and guess what — IF I’M RIGHT, I WILL RUB YOUR FACE IN IT. Because that’s exactly what you’re doing when you start throwing all your numbers around.
Good god — all this bullshit because I expressed an opinion and backed it up with evidence. You just don’t like my evidence. Well goody for you, I don’t give a shit.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
You expressed an opinion
I disagreed with it, and asked you to provide evidence to back it up.
You provided no such evidence, refused to further elaborate your opinion, and then got pissed off.
Skip Schumaker is a scapegoat
by vivaelpujols on Mar 26, 2011 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Bronson Arroyo-2006
Red Reporter: Driving that train high on cocaine.
by justin007000 on Mar 27, 2011 9:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Do you really think that your statistical arrogance
makes VEB a more fun place to be? Because I don’t.
I’ve noticed this around here lately — lots of jokes and running commentary, which are all fine, not as much analysis. You know why? Because nobody can do any analysis of performance that has even the slightest amount of reasonable doubt without having you jumping down their throat about how they’re wrong, will always be wrong, and how you’re right because of this model and this model and this model, and if you don’t believe me, well then build a model and show me where I’m wrong.
You take all the fun out of analysis. So I quit doing it. Even your own models aren’t better than 75% accurate, so knock it off with the arrogant “I’m always right” crap. You’re not, and neither is anyone else, but listening to someone else’s opinion might be beneficial. When you make it impossible to do that there’s no point in taking the time to do analysis either.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
by fourstick on Mar 26, 2011 9:39 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
That's a load of crap
You know why there’s a lot of running jokes and commentary? Because it’s the fucking offseason. Why don’t you check how many of my comments since you’ve been gone are arguments against someone else’s opinion.
Just because you made a shitty argument and failed to back it up, doesn’t mean there is something wrong with me.
Skip Schumaker is a scapegoat
by vivaelpujols on Mar 26, 2011 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions
We each had like 100 on the beatles alone, so......
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
Twitter | Gas House Graphs
That has nothing to do with statistical arrogance
Skip Schumaker is a scapegoat
by vivaelpujols on Mar 26, 2011 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions
...
Why don’t you check how many of my comments since you’ve been gone are arguments against someone else’s opinion.
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
Twitter | Gas House Graphs
I mean in response to Fourstick's comment
Which clearly was only relating to baseball related topics.
And you started a 100 comment argument with me about education, so don’t talk.
Skip Schumaker is a scapegoat
by vivaelpujols on Mar 26, 2011 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I am merely interjecting myself where I can maximize my trolling abilities
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
Twitter | Gas House Graphs
I understand
Skip Schumaker is a scapegoat
by vivaelpujols on Mar 27, 2011 4:00 AM EDT up reply actions
You're really quite a jerk.
You’re a smart guy, but you’re a fucking asshole. It keeps people from making arguments.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of fang are Asian." -Mike Shannon
I don't think I'm being an asshole
I didn’t do anything but disagree with his opinion, and then Fourstick escalated it to a personal level. It’s nothing that hasn’t happened a thousand times.
Skip Schumaker is a scapegoat
by vivaelpujols on Mar 27, 2011 3:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Oh no, I don't think you are now, either.
But it happens.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of fang are Asian." -Mike Shannon
Alright, fourstick I love you and your analysis
But you kind of just did the exact same thing to nycredsfan. Pretty much the exact same thing.
nycredsfan says he believes Bruce will breakout and that it is his opinion and he gives no evidence and you call him out on it. All that is fine.
But this is almost the exact same thing as you state Marcum will be 4.5 with little evidence (moreso than nyrcredfan granted) and then VEP calls you out on it and then you complain about how he’s arguing your opinon… even tho you just did the same thing to nycredfan.
Kind of being a hypocrite and I’m sure you’ll find some flaw in what I said here, because you’re good at that.
"And a boring game for boring people. Did you ever watch golf on television? It's like watching flies FUCK. Think of the intellect it must take to draw pleasure from this activity: hitting a ball with a crooked stick and then WALKING AFTER IT" -George Carlin
by stlcardsfan4 on Mar 26, 2011 7:16 PM EDT up reply actions
All I asked from nycredfan
Was that his argument was consistent, which was really my main problem: I said I thought Jay Bruce was a 4-5 WAR player and he disagreed with that. Then I said that I see no evidence that he could be a 6 WAR player and he disagreed with that. So, what’s the argument then? That’s he’s 5.2586792 WAR player? That’s all I was saying, and we finally did get to a point where I got an answer — he thinks that he could slug .600 in the big leagues. I disagree, but I can see how one could make that argument. But that’s wasn’t his point in the beginning, or if it was, it wasn’t evident.
I put together some pretty good proof on Marcum that simply got ignored because the “projection system covers that already”. So I went and read how Marcel gets calculated (as best we know) and, well, I didn’t see that data included. So I reposted it. Then got told the same thing. Well, I’m not trying to PREDICT better than the projection system (like nycredfan was doing), I’m simply pointing out that:
- Projection systems aren’t good with players who have a significant gap in output due to injury within a 3 year window.
- Someone like Marcum, who had a very difficult game schedule last year might actually improve more than league adjusted average.
Therefore: I feel he is a good bet to be better than his projection, and a good bet to be worth 4.5 WAR this season. I could be wrong, sure, but to say that methodology is totally off really isn’t correct, and doing so without demonstrating how rare 1 WAR swings are for starting pitchers like Marcum really isn’t saying much at all. We’re just relying on VEP’s expert opinion, and I’m not ok with that.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Your argument for Marcum in this post
Ignores all of the points that I’ve made throughout this entire thread. Actually, my entire argument can be summed up in the second post:
The only way that Marcum would project to be a 4.5 WAR player – even factoring in the bump in performance that he would receive by moving from the AL East to the NL Central – would be if he was projected to sustain the level of performance displayed last season (3.5 WAR over 200 innings – his career best).
The basic tenets of projections are to use multiple seasons worth of data and regress to the mean. Doing so would have Marcum a worse player going forward than he was in 2010.
His fWAR per 200 innings over the past 3 years are 3.6, 2.7 and 1.8. A 5-4-3-2 weighted average of that (the 2 being weighted on league average performance) yields a 2.7 WAR projection. He’s 30 now, and the data used to build his projection are his prime years, so let’s bump that down .3 WAR. Now how much has pitching in the AL East hurt his past performance. The standard league adjustment is about .4 points of ERA, so let’s give Marcum .6 points of ERA back. That’s good for an extra 1.3 WAR per 200 innings.
His projection, based on regressed multi-year data and an adjustment factoring in switching from the AL East to the NL Central, would be around 3.7 WAR per 200 innings – this is the exact number the Hardball Times has, which I quoted earlier, and I came up with it independently using rough calculations. In other words, based on the stats, he is most likely to be a 3.7 WAR player if healthy.
You have not yet shown, or even explained, why he should be expected to exceed that projection by nearly a win. Saying “Projection systems aren’t good with players who have a significant gap in output due to injury within a 3 year window” is not an affirmative defense of that position, I’m sorry.
Skip Schumaker is a scapegoat
by vivaelpujols on Mar 31, 2011 7:26 AM EDT up reply actions
I've also yet to make the case that I even care about proving why I think this way by coming up with my own statistical projection.
Even though I’ve provided ample ancillary evidence to show why I think the way that I do. You want me to do it in some mathematical formula just like the projection systems do. I’m not going to do that better than the projection systems, so why should I try?
What is Marcum’s 75% PECOTA? I would guess that it’s in the neighborhood of 4.5 WAR, but I don’t know that for sure because I don’t know where to find his PECOTA projection for this year.
You seem to think that if you crunch enough numbers enough times that your performance projections will get closer and closer to EXACTLY what someone’s performance will be. I just don’t buy that — human performance cannot be summed up by crunching statistics at an exponentially granular rate. What I do buy is pitchers who have significant injury history coming through with a career year after the injury and then having a different level of performance after that. There are examples of this occurring multiple times. I think Marcum is one of those guys.
So you can disagree with me all you want, I don’t really care. What I DO care about is the unequivocal statement that I’m wrong, when there’s no possible way, statistical or otherwise, that you can prove me wrong. You can just throw out predictive statistics, which give the “best possible solution”. But not the “correct” solution. That’s your fallacy — projection systems aren’t “correct”, they are the “best possible educated guess based on past performance and league wide trends”.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
No you're not "wrong"
That Marcum is a good bet to be a 4.5 WAR pitcher if healthy – the thing is, he’s a much better bet to be a 3.5 WAR pitcher.
I have no idea why you would talk about a player in any other way than his median projection – that is unless you think he has a higher chance of a breakout, which I have no idea why you would in Marcum’s case.
Skip Schumaker is a scapegoat
maxed out wOBA for the Cards
“in the red” average: .366
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 23, 2011 6:26 PM EDT reply actions
I'm kinda surprised by this
although the Cards are boosted by Berkman, who likely won’t play as much as a normal starter
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 23, 2011 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions
But how about those Beatles huh?
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
Twitter | Gas House Graphs
I don't know, I'm listening to a preview of the new Gorguts
the members of Dysrhythmia that have been added to lineup have certainly made there mark!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 25, 2011 7:15 PM EDT up reply actions
*their
I need to start paying attention more.
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 25, 2011 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't consider the Cubs to be a legitimate threat
Sure they could win the division, but so much has to go right for them and even if it does, something (else in the Cards’ case) has to go wrong with the Brewers/Cards/Reds.
"And a boring game for boring people. Did you ever watch golf on television? It's like watching flies FUCK. Think of the intellect it must take to draw pleasure from this activity: hitting a ball with a crooked stick and then WALKING AFTER IT" -George Carlin
by stlcardsfan4 on Mar 26, 2011 3:36 AM EDT up reply actions
yeah, they could win if the Brewers, Cardinals and Reds all fuck up
and they over achieve. would have to be a perfect storm for them. but I’ll relist the projections:
Brewers: 40.5
Cardinals: 40.1
Reds: 38.9
Cubs: 35.9
They are certainly off the pace by a fair deal. the Cards could get a boost from McClellan if he logs a lot of innings. I was hoping someone like VEP would jump in and extrapolate on these projections, maybe even including bullpens and benches, because they are certainly a factor, especially when the top 2 teams are that close. and as someone said, the Reds could get a boost if Janish starts a lot over Renteria.
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 26, 2011 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions
On that note, I am comfortable with our bench and bullpen now
And our immediate replacements seem to also be good as well (Augenstein, Sanchez, Carpenter, Chambers). So I’m not saying our bench/bullpen will be any better but it most likely – barring a ‘10 like collapse in Mo’s thinking – will not hurt us. We’ll hold our own on those spots is basically what I’m saying.
Also as to your last point, it’s Dusty fucking Baker and Renteria is a vet so I wouldn’t count on that. (Tyler Greene, Allen Craig, David Freese, Rasmus could all have significantly better years as well but again I won’t count on any of those)
"And a boring game for boring people. Did you ever watch golf on television? It's like watching flies FUCK. Think of the intellect it must take to draw pleasure from this activity: hitting a ball with a crooked stick and then WALKING AFTER IT" -George Carlin
by stlcardsfan4 on Mar 26, 2011 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions
If we're going to win the wild card
we’ve got to be a lot better at beating the Astros and Pirates than we have been in previous years.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Our record against those two bottom feeders last year was just north of horrific.
The good teams beat up on the bad teams and aim to split series with the other good teams. We beat up on the Reds pretty handily last year, but while they beat the hell out of the Pirates and Astros, we were playing sub-.500 baseball against those two teams.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
if I remember the season negatively
which I no doubt will, I will imagine them playing Aaron Miles, Pedro Feliz, and Nick Stavinoha in every game vs them, just to make it more interesting. oh yeah and skip schumaker. thanks, tony
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 30, 2011 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions
que?
wrong thread? or a what the hell to the entire post?
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 30, 2011 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions
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