Adam Wainwright replacement options freakout tread

There's good news and there's bad news. The bad news seems to be that Adam Wainwright has torn the UCL in his pitching elbow and will have to have tommy-john surgery. That sound you're hearing is some combination of the brick that John Mozeliak is dropping, the gasps and wails of a few hundred thousand Cards fans, and the dollar signs turning up in a Kevin-Millwood's-head-shaped slot machine.

So, is the season over? Is Waino's career in danger? Well, the logical answer to both of those questions is no. But damnit if it doesn't feel like my dog just died. If Waino has surgery tonight, he is a 90% bet to recover, but it will be at least four months before he can even start rehabilitating his elbow, and 6-8 months after that before he will be realistically able to even attempt to actually pitch baseball games again. That's March April May June July August September October November December January minimum.

The Cardinals were a just-over 90 win team and were projected basically within the margin of error with the Reds and perhaps just above that against the Brewers. Waino was worth 6.1 WAR in last year. If Wainwright's replacement is the old man Batista, I fully expect them to finish third. The remainder of the depth chart falls below.

In-house:

Ian Snell is technically a major-league pitcher. Ian Snell was sub-replacement level in 2010. He's a bit of depth, but the team just isn't constructed to give him a chance to find his way at the ML level.

Kyle McClellan has long been rumored as a starting candidate, and he has looked like the poor-man's Adam Wainwright at times. Unfortunately that poor man is an unemployed college student who drinks too heavily, or at least he would need to be to mistake McClellan for Waino. He throws a bunch of pitches and one of them is a curveball, and he has been reasonably not-terrible in the bullpen but he would need to sustain his bullpen numbers and take a big step forward to be a frontline starter. He has decent odds of being put into the rotation, and he could be an average pitcher for us this season.

Minor leaguers:

Lance Lynn could be one of the most exciting or most terrifying pitchers on this list, depending on your opinion on the reality of his 97 MPH fastball from late last year. His stuff sounds a lot like Brad Penny. His minor league stats look like the kind that would translate into a major leaguer like Kyle McClellan. He seems like the favorite for the job at this point.

PJ Walters. Nah I'm just messing with you.

Shelby Miller was good in A-ball last year. He was born in 1990 which, if my math is correct, makes him 14 years old. That kind of a thing hasn't been done since that movie about that kid on the Cubs and we all know how that turned out. Plus if we're doing movie stereotypes, we could just bring up Samuel to do a Charlie Sheen impression.

Kevin Millwood:

Kevin Millwood seems like the only free agent of any value. He's a year older than Chris Carpenter. He was crappy last season. His fastball hit a career low in velocity at 89.0 MPH. He just started giving up more flies than grounders and has a K/BB right around 2.0. His swinging strike % dropped to 5.9. He would need a strong dose of Dave Duncan's magic to get his GB rate up, walks down, and HR rate down.

Ugh.