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Around SBN: The Most Dangerous Division in Sports

valuing molina


fyi - if you didn't see this article, it's worth checking out. nominally, it's about cardinals "quirkiness" which seems to be a synonym for "crappiness (except for ray lankford) within the last 20 years."

* * *

some time ago, bj rains idly speculated about yadier molina's next contract. shortly thereafter, several cooler heads prevailed and noted that rains was predicting a historic contract for molina, relative to other catchers. see below for a collection of catchers who have managed to score an eight-figure average annual value in free agency.

historically best compensated catchers (AAV)

jorge posada - $13.1m (2008-11) [career wOBA .366]

ivan rodriguez - $10m (2003, 2004-07) [.343]

joe mauer - $23m (2011-18) [.377]

jason kendall - $10m (2002-07) [.333]

jason varitek - $10m (2005-08) [.336]

mike piazza - $13m (1999-2005) [.389]

arguably, molina is difficult to fit into this matrix - or really, difficult to calculate his value at all using the tools available to us. molina is a defense-first catcher by conventional wisdom. and the biggest weakness in conventional WAR is an inability to capture catcher defense.

on the offensive side, molina's career wOBA is .310 according to fangraphs. while his offensive production has improved substantially, he still has a projected .320 wOBA according to Bill James - which is a rough way of addressing some up-and-down recent seasons.

so, our dilemma is that molina is nowhere near an offensive comp to the most well-paid catchers out there, but we have no way to really assess how his defensive value compares to that of the other best-paid catchers. since molina is working on a $7m option, it seems very likely that molina will make more than the $7m in the option.

whatever one thinks of molina's defense, it seems fair to say that any defensive superiority on molina's part does not make up for the offensive gap between him and joe mauer. so, given the salary precedents above, it seems like we're likely talking about something in the vicinity of $10-$13m in AAV for yadier's next contract.

Star-divide

the other question to think about is the aging curve for molina. he'll be in his age-30 season next year, so we're likely talking about putting him under contract for his age 31, 32, 33, and 34 seasons. you might have noticed that some of the contracts above turned out . . . well, kinda terrible.

there's a limit to how much looking at these aging curves will tell us, especially because yadier molina's value lies primarily in his defense. just as there's no good way to measure catcher defense last season, there's no good way to measure it over a career arc. and there's no particularly good reason to think that catcher defense varies at the same rate as offense.

still, even if we're measuring aging curves imperfectly, it might be interesting to see what comes out of a review of WAR from age 26-29 and 31-34 for these players.

jorge posada - 11.4 (fWAR age 26-29)/17.9 (fWAR age 31-34)

ivan rodriguez - 23.4/16.3

jason kendall - 13.5/7.0

jason varitek - 5.8/12.3

mike piazza - 25.9/17.9

sorry - at this point i lost the rest of the draft post due to a computer snafu. to sum up the basic findings, all of the highly-paid guys listed above caught 1000-inning seasons through their early 30's, generally seeing decline in durability only in age 35, 36, or 37 season. in fact, of the highly-paid catchers, the only big standout in terms of subpar innings was joe mauer, who has only put together 2 1000 inning seasons thus far. while such a small cohort is not scientific, i don't see an obvious problem in anticipating that yadier will be more or less capable of keeping up 1000 innings through age 34, though the increased risk associated with a fifth year is probably substantial.

even though the above stats show a mixed result in terms of total WAR, we still should probably expect his offensive production to decline more or less linearly like other hitters. that is, yadier will probably be worth about 2 wins less with the bat in his age 34 season. in other words, by 2016 we will be paying yadier almost exclusively for his defense.

and therein lies the rub. we can only guess what his defense is worth now, much less what it will be worth in 2016. as a shot in the dark, i'd bet he'll be worth at least a win, probably 1.5 wins. 2 wins? 2.5?

depending on how optimistic you are about his defense, the contract obviously becomes more defensible, or even a bargain. generically speaking, a 4y/$40m contract or maybe even a 4y/$48m contract would seem reasonable, and outstanding in terms of AAV for catcher contracts. i'd avoid any substantial entanglements beyond 4 years without a significant discount for the risk.

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4/40 was exactly the number I was thinking, tom

although if it’s much more than that I’d be happy to see him leave. As I see it, we’re basically gambling on the value of his defense. If we simply assume (as the current iteration of WAR pretty much does) that Yadi is only slightly above average defensively, then he’s probably about a 3-3.5 WAR guy now (last four years: 2.7, 3.5, 2.4, 4.1).

Your assumption that he’ll lose about 2 WAR in his bat over 4 years is pretty much in line with the rule of thumb that most players lose about an average 0.5 WAR/yr, post-peak, in the average ageing curve. That means you’re looking at him producing 3, 2.5, 2 and 1.5 WAR (ish) over the course of a four year deal, for a total of 9 WAR. As that’s worth about $45m or so, the $40m-ish deal works well. However, if you assume he’s a better defender than WAR thinks (which I’d think is probably the case), that’s looking like a much stronger deal for us.

As far as I can see, there’s a reasonable evidence that, in actual fact, catcher might be very important defensively, and that Molina is one of the best out there – see http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/catcher-defense-2010/ for general pitch blocking/controlling the running game and http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/evaluating-catchers-framing-pitches-part-3/ for framing. If he’s, say, a +20 defender, rather than a +5 defender, you’re getting a pretty massive bargain with this deal.

My only concern is his body type and the large number of innings he’s caught (most in baseball IIRC in the last 4 years). I think if we hedge the possibility of dramatic decline against the possibility that he’s actually worth a lot more in terms of defense than WAR would suggest, then the 4 year, 40-45m deal sounds about right.

Still bitching to contact.

by Felonius_Monk on Dec 31, 2011 7:42 AM EST reply actions   1 recs

I agree

My only quibble is the uncertainty of Yadi’s defense. Because we have no reliable stats, we assume we can’t tell how valuable he is? I’ve been watching baseball for a long time and Yadi is very good. He’s johnny bench good defensively. Teams don’t run on him and he is wicked good at picking off people at 1b (we’ll see if Lance can be his partner there). Game calling is hard to tell given how much DD and TLR run a game.

As far as aging, you have his older brothers to go by which would indicate he would hold up well.

I’d be happy extending him to even 5 years — especially with very little in the system. Would like to see Yadi finish in a Cards uniform. Show him some respect, Mo!

Just win

by The Duke on Dec 31, 2011 8:25 AM EST up reply actions  

I like Molina also

He is the best I’ve seen in the years I’ve followed the Cards but I don’t give much more than a modest edge over Matheny, Mc Carver or Del Rice.

Molina is 5’ 11" 230 pounds and already slow . To me That warns of a quick decline at about 33 years old. I would be hesitant on over 4 years. As far as “nothing in the system” I think I see and I imphasize, think, (SSS) a fine rising catcher in Tony Cruz.

by ridgesee on Dec 31, 2011 10:49 AM EST up reply actions  

what I mean is that we can't quantify how good he is.

We can probably safely say he’s very good, that he’s among the best defensive catchers, if not the best.

What we don’t know is how much being very good defensively is worth.

That is, if you wanted to trade yadier straight up for a defensively-average catcher (ignoring issues like age and contract), how much better would the other catcher have offensively to make the trade fair? Would it be fair if he was a .360 wOBA hitter? .370? Right now, we can only guess.

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by tom s. on Dec 31, 2011 11:47 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

yup. SABR has been trying to quantify catcher defense for a while

This reminded me of a 2006 BP article saying that yadi simply eliminating the threat of a runner has a lot of value.

Side note: Personally, as much as I want to believe it as I played catcher for +16 years, “handling the pitcher” and “calling the game” at the profesional level probably has nowhere near the value people think.

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by rocKStark5 on Dec 31, 2011 12:00 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm guessing Yadi has at least some impact and value on the pitcher psychologically

They probably don’t worry so much about any runners reaching base because they know he has a good chance of throwing them out. Not saying it’s anything substantial but I definitely think it exists somewhat.

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by cardinalswsbound on Dec 31, 2011 12:31 PM EST up reply actions  

BP covered that whole "pitchers pitch differently" with a stolen base threat on

in their book and couldn’t come up with anything. Has someone found a real correllation or are we still in intangible land on that one?

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by rocKStark5 on Dec 31, 2011 12:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Hmmmmm interesting

It’s funny how many of these storylines that former players trumpet, i.e. pitching differently because of a base runner, that are now being proven wrong or at least not finding evidence of with advanced research.

Manchester City: 44 points, 14-1-2, 1st in EPL, +38 GD
Sergio Aguero: 11 G, 4 A
Edin Dzeko: 10 G, 3 A

by cardinalswsbound on Dec 31, 2011 12:45 PM EST up reply actions  

They do pitch differently

if I am remembering the findings correctly it is just that it doesn’t make the hitter any better or worse.

by Xeifrank on Dec 31, 2011 12:52 PM EST up reply actions  

I thought the conclusion was,

the pitcher is worse- throws less strikes etc, but the hitter is also worse because he is more likely to swing at crap trying to get his RBEYEZZ!!.

"Congratulations to the Cardinals! Such a fun world series." - Salman Rushdie

by hazel on Dec 31, 2011 3:28 PM EST up reply actions  

I, personally

would go with the offensive catcher if he could do three things: 1 catch the ball, naturally, 2-have a strong enough throwing arm that average runners don’t run on him and 3- be able to block balls in the dirt.

Blocking ball in the dirt and handling wide pitches is a duty a catcher has to handle.or he should be behind the plate even if he can hit .340.

by ridgesee on Dec 31, 2011 12:18 PM EST up reply actions  

I tend to use the FSR

from Tom Tango’s site for things like catcher defensive ratings. Actually, I use it for all positions ahead of metrics like UZR. I just don’t trust the input data used for today’s fielding metrics. I would much rather trust a network of human brains and take my chances. That being said, Yadier Molina rates as the second best defensive catcher in MLB on the FSR. My studies have shown that such a rating translates to a 15+ runs saved on the scale we are use to seeing.

by Xeifrank on Dec 31, 2011 12:41 PM EST up reply actions  

interesting point

lance is left-handed so it might be a little more difficult

"He may have been only .213 but they were the clutchest .213 of all time."
Running list of Molina pick-offs | twit

by BVHeck on Dec 31, 2011 4:55 PM EST up reply actions  

I'd go up to 5/55

I wanted to play baseball!
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by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 31, 2011 5:37 PM EST up reply actions  

He is so slow now

he wont be able to move in 5 years. he will be a designated catcher…not required to run.

by setitan on Dec 31, 2011 5:49 PM EST via Android app up reply actions  

plus

it may be that he slows imperceptibly
because he is so slow already

TLR is gone, long live the king

by sportsman on Dec 31, 2011 6:34 PM EST up reply actions  

This

I was pretty much thinking about posting this info as I read the post only to see you beat me to it. Some of the most recent attempts to quantify catcher defense have Yadi’s defense as very valuable. I still believe it’s more valuable than those attempts for a few reasons (some finer points are still unaccounted for like calling a game – which could be more valuable than anything else a catcher does – and I think pitch framing is undervalued in that article, but it is getting much closer). I think 4 at 40-45 mil would be a good deal as well. I wouldn’t mind closer to 15 mil a year on a 2-3 year deal, but the AAV needs to go down the longer the contract is.

by fltfire on Dec 31, 2011 10:44 AM EST up reply actions  

So here's a problem with WAR as it is currently constructed.

The things that we’re learning about catcher defense (e.g. pitch framing) is actually already factored into pitcher valuations both in terms of the $$$ contracts they are getting and the WAR framework for pitchers. When studies make statements that say a catcher has added X WAR through various methods, big picture, that is a zero sum gain that has to come from somewhere else.

WAR makes some worldview assumptions implicitly (e.g. a strikeout is always the result of a pitcher and not a catcher).

Beware: Velociraptors may be present.

by azruavatar on Dec 31, 2011 11:15 AM EST up reply actions   2 recs

So basically

the world “win value” is all accounted for, but it’s not allocated out as accurately as it would be ideally?

"I'll be deep in the cold, cold ground before I recognize Missoura!"

by mattybobo on Dec 31, 2011 11:19 AM EST up reply actions  

Not sure why I said "world" there...

I meant more along the lines of “total” or “aggregate”.

"I'll be deep in the cold, cold ground before I recognize Missoura!"

by mattybobo on Dec 31, 2011 11:19 AM EST up reply actions  

Right.

If Yadi is helping Chris Carpenter out by getting strikes called instead of balls, that is already showing up in the defined event statsitics of Chris Carpenter. Untangling that interdependency is extremely difficult, imo.

Beware: Velociraptors may be present.

by azruavatar on Dec 31, 2011 12:25 PM EST up reply actions  

Same here

Though it’s basically the same thing that DIPS tries to do, it’s just much harder to do it for catchers, apparently, than for the other defensive positions.

"I'll be deep in the cold, cold ground before I recognize Missoura!"

by mattybobo on Dec 31, 2011 2:46 PM EST up reply actions  

yeah, FIP is nice because it eliminates stuff that is influenced by fielders

but as we know (now), K and BB rates are influenced by catchers as well.

I think we first need to study if the catcher framing metrics are actually accurate, and then try to separate catcher framing from pitching.

Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.

by vivaelpujols on Dec 31, 2011 4:17 PM EST up reply actions  

then presumably we could do some sort of study of pitcher's relative values when using a catcher vs not using that catcher

and maybe be able to determine the value that the catcher adds?

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by purple_haze on Dec 31, 2011 4:19 PM EST up reply actions  

that's called WOWY (with or without you)

the problem is that it captures a lot of things that don’t have anything to do with catcher framing, and those things don’t necessarily even out over time.

Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.

by vivaelpujols on Dec 31, 2011 4:21 PM EST up reply actions  

so what you're saying is

since pitchers tend to work with the same catcher over a period of time, measuring their performance between different catchers tends to capture more of the difference between the pitcher’s true talent at different points in his career than the difference between the skills of the catchers involved. so the pitcher would giiiiiiive himself awayyyy. and he gives. and he gives. and he giiiives himself awayy.

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by purple_haze on Dec 31, 2011 5:04 PM EST up reply actions  

I am no expert, but I am guessing that it is still a small component of ERA

A full time catcher like Molina that catches 1100 inning and saves 10 runs (~1 win), would affect ERAs by 0.07. That is probably well within the statistical error when you compare CERA.

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by Zubin on Dec 31, 2011 4:08 PM EST up reply actions  

this makes a ton of sense

although how to separate the catcher’s contributions from those of the pitcher sounds like a tough question. Perhaps there should be a battery WAR statistic of some sort. Then that data could be used to yield “catcher-neutral” pitching stats. For example, how good would Chris Carpenter have been for the last three years with a replacement-level catcher, etc.

It’d be an awful lot of math, though.

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by nota bene on Dec 31, 2011 3:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Uggghhhhh, just give him his money...

….we can afford it now. 4 years @ 40-44 mil seems quite fair to me. I don’t see Cruz or Anderson replacing Yadi at all, and there isn’t anyone else in the pipeline or in the FA market.

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by The MooCow on Dec 31, 2011 3:37 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

You'd have to take into consideration

who the umpire was and if it was a home/away game etc… Lots of things to account for. /ScienceProject

by Xeifrank on Dec 31, 2011 5:20 PM EST up reply actions  

well shit

that’s what i get for not reading the entire thread

and we won the world series.

by YesWeOquendo on Dec 31, 2011 4:14 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, we already know that WAR/FIP isn't perfect
WAR makes some worldview assumptions implicitly (e.g. a strikeout is always the result of a pitcher and not a catcher).

The catcher framing hardly changes that. We already knew that strikeouts, walks, etc. aren’t completely in the pitchers control. This is just another adjustment we should make – it’s the same exact theory as DIPS.

Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.

by vivaelpujols on Dec 31, 2011 4:14 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, I don't Yadi is a +20 defender

As I’m still very skeptical about those framing studies, but I would think he’s at least a +10 defender currently. 4/40 is a good deal, and I think we can probably get him for less.

Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.

by vivaelpujols on Dec 31, 2011 4:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Could you expand on what makes you skeptical about the framing studies?

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by bgh on Dec 31, 2011 4:17 PM EST up reply actions  

They just haven't been verified yet

We need to do some studies with the pitchers, because I could easily that pitchers (movement, etc.) have more to do with extra strike calls than catchers.

Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.

by vivaelpujols on Dec 31, 2011 4:22 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree with this. Thought about bringing it up earlier.

Let’s say you have two pitchers that each throw a curveball. One throws it with more spin and gets more vertical movement on it. If both pitches cross the plate 1 inch below the zone, is one easier to frame because it has vertical movement?

I think there’s a case to be made that you should be normalizing these catcher framing values against pitch data. (Which would be a monumental task but speaks to the idea that it’s about the pitchers or the pitch more-so than the catcher.)

Beware: Velociraptors may be present.

by azruavatar on Dec 31, 2011 4:26 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, it seems like a daunting task

I don’t envy the guy who is eventually going to do it (Mike Fast).

Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.

by vivaelpujols on Dec 31, 2011 4:27 PM EST up reply actions  

the idea of valueing framing is really interesting to me

in the same way that stats capture other intangibles, wouldn’t framing be captured in stats as well? although not for catcher defense, but for pitcher effectiveness?

and we won the world series.

by YesWeOquendo on Dec 31, 2011 4:13 PM EST up reply actions  

In addition to his defensive value, I think it is also hard to quantify Molina's value in working with pitchers

But, in contract negotiations it might be something that the team takes into consideration. FWIW, I hope they can work something out along the lines you are suggesting.

by Il_Duce on Dec 31, 2011 8:56 AM EST reply actions  

I've always likened Molina to varitek, for some reason

Varitek was worth ~3 WAR/year during the time period we are looking at for Yadi. I think yadi’s hit tool will not decline fast enough to overwhelm his glove tool and staff control staying static, if that makes sense. Due to this though process, i willing to go 4/$50. I totally agree with tom; we need to avoid a 5th year like the plague unless wee get it at a pretty big discount ($8M?)

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by VolsnCards5 on Dec 31, 2011 9:24 AM EST via mobile reply actions  

Not trying to start anything

But Varitek is not even in the same ballpark as Molina defensively.

by fltfire on Dec 31, 2011 10:35 AM EST up reply actions  

Now he isn't.

But how do we know he wasn’t when he was Yadi’s age? In a roundabout way, I’m asking what you base this assessment on.

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by bgh on Dec 31, 2011 1:19 PM EST up reply actions  

especially since Mo got his stuff taken care of early

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by MaytheForschbewithyou on Dec 31, 2011 11:18 AM EST up reply actions  

Yeah...

and I don’t buy that he’s necessarily gone if he gets to FA. The “rogue owner” who wants to “change the course of his franchise” is not going to be a factor with Yadier Molina, I don’t think.

Sign Roy O

by guayzimi on Dec 31, 2011 11:37 AM EST up reply actions  

I don't know.

I can see Pujols having a pretty strong pull with him and with the Angels catcher situation being as bad as it’s been, it’s a worry. Moreno could very easily make a strong play for him. Not sure that any other team would have that kind of a chance with him besides us.

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"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.

by MaytheForschbewithyou on Dec 31, 2011 12:08 PM EST up reply actions  

would their friendship even be that big of a factor?

i’d be surprised if you said yes, because it didn’t keep pujols here.

the only scenario i see in which yadi goes to the angels is if it’s about money, but that assumes Moreno would be willing to overpay for both yadi and albert. it’s definitely possible though.

by molina mo problems on Dec 31, 2011 1:47 PM EST up reply actions  

I think it's one of several factors that might drive him to southern california.

Anybody who will try to outbid the cardinals will be bullish on the value of catcher defense generally, and yadi’s defense in particular.

It seems to me that trading napoli away in favor of a clearly inferior catcher shows that scioscia certainly weighs catcher defense heavily. Not that anybody saw napoli’s 2011 coming, but Napoli was clearly an offensively elite catcher even before this season.

It seems like yadi would fit scioscia’s philosophy well.

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by tom s. on Dec 31, 2011 3:26 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

we should make a deadline for extension talks

/pujols’d

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Running list of Molina pick-offs | twit

by BVHeck on Dec 31, 2011 5:15 PM EST up reply actions  

All I have to say is

Ya-di! Ya-di! Ya-di!

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by Buddhasillegitimatechild38 on Dec 31, 2011 10:10 AM EST via mobile reply actions  

What I would like to know is

What does Yadi WANT? This seems to have been one of the break-downs in the Pujols negotiations. Did Albert want years, or did he want AAV? Or did he want both? It might be that Molina would be willing to settle for a contract that pays a bit below market average, if it offers a bit of security.

For example, would the Cardinals offer a six-year deal, if it was along the lines of say $8M a year? Maybe they offer some partial no-trade options too. I’m not saying this is the best strategy, but I am curious what Yadier wants in what is likely his big payday.

by JWO on Dec 31, 2011 10:22 AM EST reply actions   1 recs

Yadi probably wants what we all want

someone to give us a hug and tell us everything’s gonna be alright. That plus a 5 year 10MM/year contract.

Ad Maiorem Tortius Gloriam

by peppermartin on Dec 31, 2011 11:00 AM EST up reply actions  

That's what I got for Xmas

My wife took a photograph of the side of a barn that’s painted. “Everything is going to be OK” and framed it for me. Perfect gift.

Just win

by The Duke on Dec 31, 2011 5:40 PM EST up reply actions  

Getting any extension at all

Will give Yadi no trade protection (10 and 5). So there’s a leg up the Cards have in that any other team would probably have to include a no trade clause if he wanted that part of “security”.

by Cardsray on Dec 31, 2011 1:10 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

excellent point.

"He may have been only .213 but they were the clutchest .213 of all time."
Running list of Molina pick-offs | twit

by BVHeck on Dec 31, 2011 5:21 PM EST up reply actions  

The more I know about the Albert negotiations

the more I think that what Albert wanted was to leave.

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by purple_haze on Dec 31, 2011 4:22 PM EST up reply actions  

yeah

Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.

by vivaelpujols on Dec 31, 2011 5:25 PM EST up reply actions  

evidently

Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.

by vivaelpujols on Dec 31, 2011 5:37 PM EST up reply actions  

I think 240 would have sufficed

Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.

by vivaelpujols on Dec 31, 2011 5:44 PM EST up reply actions  

There were reports that Team Pujols wouldn't go below 10 years, $270MM, IIRC.

"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."

--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

by bgh on Dec 31, 2011 5:47 PM EST up reply actions  

that's above what the Angel's offered

Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.

by vivaelpujols on Dec 31, 2011 5:51 PM EST up reply actions  

Right.

But Pujols was not a free agent at that point in time. They were bilateral talks between the Cardinals and Team Pujols on an extension. I can’t find the report (or maybe it was a tweet), but apparently Pujols would not go below 10 years, $270MM during extension talks.

"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."

--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

by bgh on Dec 31, 2011 5:53 PM EST up reply actions  

yeah, then that's ridiculous

Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.

by vivaelpujols on Dec 31, 2011 5:54 PM EST up reply actions  

*If* it's true, it's ridiculous.

But it also shows how much hot air the national baseball press was spewing when they were attempting to fault the Cardinals for not extending Pujols before he hit free agency.

"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."

--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

by bgh on Dec 31, 2011 5:55 PM EST up reply actions  

Trade Yadi...

…to the Angels. Possibly at the deadline. If the Angels are in it and we have had some injury issues this would be a solid match. Let Pujols campaign for him, see if we can extract a good price.

by BigJawnMize on Dec 31, 2011 10:19 PM EST up reply actions  

that would be implying we are not in the race next season

Which would be a little surprising

I wanted to play baseball!
-Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 1, 2012 1:52 AM EST via Android app up reply actions  

like BJM said tho

if all the risks we’ve taken (berk misses a lot of time, beltran misses a lot of time, craig misses a lot of time, freese misses a lot of time, carp misses a lot of time, waino misses a lot of time, etc.) get the better of us, we will end up dealers. this is worst case scenario. but if it happens, you gotta believe molina will be on the chopping block.

"He may have been only .213 but they were the clutchest .213 of all time."
Running list of Molina pick-offs | twit

by BVHeck on Jan 1, 2012 2:13 AM EST up reply actions  

Right on

I think that may be the thing mozeliak excels at is contingencies

I wanted to play baseball!
-Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 1, 2012 2:25 AM EST via Android app up reply actions  

yes, when the Cards asked TP(heh) what kind of contract they were thinking

I believe the answer was the A-rod contract.

Johnny Gomes could not be reached for comment
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.

by MaytheForschbewithyou on Dec 31, 2011 11:48 PM EST up reply actions  

not when sleezano said the negotiation started at ARod's $275

how was the team supposed to negotiate when they took such a hard line?

Balls

by gdm426 on Dec 31, 2011 5:52 PM EST up reply actions  

or, or....

and this is a crazy notion, pujols just decided to take the offer that would give him much more money.

Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.

by vivaelpujols on Dec 31, 2011 5:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Nah, it was all about "commitment."

Or, the most money over the longest term.

"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."

--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

by bgh on Dec 31, 2011 5:47 PM EST up reply actions  

It didn't work.

"I don’t like the feeling of losing."---Chris Carpenter

by cardsfan59 on Dec 31, 2011 5:57 PM EST up reply actions  

It did? How?

"I don’t like the feeling of losing."---Chris Carpenter

by cardsfan59 on Dec 31, 2011 5:58 PM EST up reply actions  

because he didn't have to say

answer questions on why he was so greeded or why he was going to leave saint louis for a full year.

Trade Westbrook

by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Dec 31, 2011 5:59 PM EST up reply actions  

see below

"I don’t like the feeling of losing."---Chris Carpenter

by cardsfan59 on Dec 31, 2011 5:59 PM EST up reply actions  

jeeez....try that again..

Because he didn’t have answer questions on why he was being so greedy or why he was going to leave saint louis for an entire year.

Trade Westbrook

by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Dec 31, 2011 6:00 PM EST up reply actions  

he sure looks great now

like a great big fake, lying, greedy jerk

Balls

by gdm426 on Dec 31, 2011 5:57 PM EST up reply actions  

oh..

well all that bullshit is just him trying to protect the lie he told for a couple years.

Trade Westbrook

by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Dec 31, 2011 6:03 PM EST up reply actions  

And like I said, it didn't work

"I don’t like the feeling of losing."---Chris Carpenter

by cardsfan59 on Dec 31, 2011 6:03 PM EST up reply actions  

it doesn't matter to whom?

Would you find me more attractive if I were more attractive?
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by purple_haze on Dec 31, 2011 6:08 PM EST up reply actions  

because it clearly matters to Albert or he wouldn't have said it

and it VERY clearly matters to us fans or we wouldn’t be so pissed.

Would you find me more attractive if I were more attractive?
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by purple_haze on Dec 31, 2011 6:09 PM EST up reply actions  

see, i doubt it really is this simple

at least in Albert’s head. i think his comments have shown that this is not just a simple cold economic calculation. there seems to be some sort of resentment at play (perhaps a case of familiarity breeds contempt?) and some strange money/love equivocation going on here.

Would you find me more attractive if I were more attractive?
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by purple_haze on Dec 31, 2011 6:08 PM EST up reply actions  

right, all of the "diresepect" was caused over money

Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.

by vivaelpujols on Dec 31, 2011 6:09 PM EST up reply actions  

sure, yeah

i mean a contract discussion is about dollars. but i don’t think that he just took the Angels contract because it was a lot more. I think he took it because, over a long period of negotiations with the Cardinals he had grown resentful of the team and wanted out.

this is all completely speculative of course but that’s my working theory.

Would you find me more attractive if I were more attractive?
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by purple_haze on Dec 31, 2011 6:22 PM EST up reply actions  

100%.

People leave jobs all the time because they feel unappreciated/disrespected or their boss is an ass. The relationship was at fault and he wanted a divorce.

by Forsch's2nohitters on Dec 31, 2011 6:45 PM EST up reply actions  

100% really?

you’re going to say that with absolutely no evidence to back it up? you got balls.

Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.

by vivaelpujols on Dec 31, 2011 6:55 PM EST up reply actions  

well, can't beat this, really

none of us will know what pujols felt until he comes out and says it. i bet 50% of us or more have left jobs for less of a reason.

"He may have been only .213 but they were the clutchest .213 of all time."
Running list of Molina pick-offs | twit

by BVHeck on Jan 1, 2012 2:16 AM EST up reply actions  

I think he had a not entirely unreasonable assumption that the Cards' final offer

was going to be something significantly higher that what it ended up being. Honestly, 10/210-220 with 30 million deferred was certainly lower than what I thought the Cardinals would end up at.

I think early on he realized this to be the case and more of a sign that the team didn’t really want him back and was just going through the motions for the fans.

I would imagine that the Cardinals saw things rather differently, and ultimately made the flawed assumption that no one was going to offer Albert anything close to the mega-deal he wanted.

Ultimately the situation fell apart because the two sides apparently went into negotiations with two very different ideas of what the final deal would look like.

by bailorg on Dec 31, 2011 8:59 PM EST up reply actions  

i can't fault the Cardinals for being careful with Albert

especially considering how he & the Mrs are acting like they’re the victims here because they didn’t get the ARod deal they wanted.

Balls

by gdm426 on Jan 1, 2012 2:55 AM EST up reply actions  

yeah he's been acting like the team wronged him somehow

and the only thing i can think of is he was pissed he didn’t get an ARod like extension when Lego was signed

Balls

by gdm426 on Dec 31, 2011 6:10 PM EST up reply actions  

agree, lot of emotion and unmet "needs"

think the cards offered albert his future worth in their projections
as it turns out they offered albert more on a per fWAR basis than miami paid for arey and for many more years

moreno wanted a splash pr-wise, i doubt they metricians predicted a much different 10 yr performance

and i suspect the personal service contract was something moreno insisted on—i would not pay that kind of money for a player on the back end of his career unless he promised to not run back to stl when he was done playing

TLR is gone, long live the king

by sportsman on Jan 1, 2012 1:56 PM EST up reply actions  

indubitably

Kumar: I don't know man, I lose my touch, man.
Dignan: Did you ever have a touch to lose, man?

by lightbulb on Dec 31, 2011 5:50 PM EST up reply actions  

I think the career wOBAs for some of the comps

skew the comps just a bit because of the stat-inflated times of the late nineties and early aughts. Ivan Rodriguez’ 1998 and 1999 seasons were comparable to Yadi’s 2011 by wRC+, unbelievably. In 99, Ivan had a line of .332/.356/.558, with 35 HRs.

In any event, it’s fair to say that all of those guys are still better hitters than Yadi. It’ll be interesting to see this year whether Yadi’s change in hitting profile and increased power is a sustainable and real improvement. I think it probably is, though I would still expect his numbers to go down just a bit.

by Willie McGee's Twin on Dec 31, 2011 10:30 AM EST reply actions   1 recs

The changes in offensive environment really are stunning once you wrap your head around them

Yadi in 2011: .305/.349/.365, .349 wOBA, 123 wRC+ Average wOBA = .316
Pudge 1996: .300/.342/.373, .351 wOBA, 98 wRC+ Average wOBA = .335

In 1999 and 2000 the average wOBA (per Fangraphs anyway) was .341. It was actually pretty stable from 1993 to 1998, hovering a little over .330, then it spiked in 1999/2000, then went back down to ~.330 (but a touch lower I think than the 93-98 level) until 2010, when it dropped to .321 and then to .316 last year.

"I'll be deep in the cold, cold ground before I recognize Missoura!"

by mattybobo on Dec 31, 2011 11:29 AM EST up reply actions  

I've mentioned this before...

but if you take into account park, league, and environment, the 2011 Cardinals’ offense was historically good. I think the Cards’ team OPS+ was top 5 in NL history since 1945.

Sign Roy O

by guayzimi on Dec 31, 2011 11:39 AM EST up reply actions  

Interesting stuff.

I haven’t found a way to sort single-season team totals like that for multiple years… Fangraphs has a cumulative feature. Just for fun I ran all teams from 2001 to 2011 (The Pujols Era) and the Cards still lead in WAR during that time (Fangraphs did a story about this before the 2011 season I think and we were the “surprise” highest WAR team of the first ten years of the 21st century, and now the first eleven years). The top five is Cardinals, Phillies, Braves, Yankees, Red Sox (and then a pretty sizable drop down from the sixth place Giants onward).

One thing I noticed: during this time period, the Cardinals are the only team with a wRC+ over 100 (102 to be exact which is pretty darn high since only the Yankees and Red Sox have a figure significantly over 100) and positive numbers for both the Fangraphs defense (Fld) and base running (BsR) numbers. The only one.

As for the team offenses during that 11-year period, it goes like this:
Yankees 113
Red Sox 110
Cardinals/Rangers 102
Indians 101
Phillies 100

Every other team is below 100. So not only do the Cardinals have a unique all-around level of quality during that time, but they are also the only team in the NL with a wRC+ above 100.

"I'll be deep in the cold, cold ground before I recognize Missoura!"

by mattybobo on Dec 31, 2011 11:51 AM EST up reply actions  

Certainly is a golden age...

glad we managed a couple of WS titles out of it…

Sign Roy O

by guayzimi on Dec 31, 2011 12:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Also, you might end up being right about the "top 5" bet

I went year-by-year on Fangraphs for the same period as my above post (2001 to 2011). Unless I missed something, here are the best NL offenses during that time, by wRC+:

2003 Braves 112
2011 Cards 111
2003 Cards 109
2002 Giants 109
2008 Cards 107
2007 Phils 107
2001 Giants 107

I arbitrarily stopped at 107, because, eh.

"I'll be deep in the cold, cold ground before I recognize Missoura!"

by mattybobo on Dec 31, 2011 12:13 PM EST up reply actions  

I just looked at league batting on BR and manually went back in time...

it doesn’t take long because they have a link to the previous year on each page.

Sign Roy O

by guayzimi on Dec 31, 2011 12:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Ah

So, looking at team OPS+?

"I'll be deep in the cold, cold ground before I recognize Missoura!"

by mattybobo on Dec 31, 2011 12:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Nononononono

the wRC+ means that the offense is measured against league average. So in the 1990s when Pudge was below average for posting an offensive year better than Yadi’s best by far, teams would not be that far from average unless their offense was even more ridiculous than the already ridiculous average offense of the league at large.

"Congratulations to the Cardinals! Such a fun world series." - Salman Rushdie

by hazel on Dec 31, 2011 4:09 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm aware of how wRC+ works, I just didn't bother to look through teams earlier than 2001

So I am pleading ignorance about which, if any, NL teams compare to the teams above in terms of how they compare to the league average of their (hypothetical) respective years. That’s all.

"I'll be deep in the cold, cold ground before I recognize Missoura!"

by mattybobo on Dec 31, 2011 4:16 PM EST up reply actions  

My question for the more Saber-savvy:

Was it “easier” for an NL team to put up a wRC+ of 112 in 2003 than it is for an NL team to do the same in 2011?

"I'll be deep in the cold, cold ground before I recognize Missoura!"

by mattybobo on Dec 31, 2011 12:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes

Assuming that offense was greater in 2003. It is because as averages rise, so does variation.

The St. Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champions!

by Zubin on Dec 31, 2011 4:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Well, it depends on how you define easier.

For an NL team to put up a wRC+ of 112 in 2003 their wOBA would have to be around .360 while an NL team could do the same in 2011 with a wOBA of .336.

Kind of like the Cardinals could put up a wRC+ over 9000 in a softball league, because it measures how far they are from average instead of how good their counting stat ratios were.

"Congratulations to the Cardinals! Such a fun world series." - Salman Rushdie

by hazel on Dec 31, 2011 4:16 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, it was kind of hard to even come up with my own definition of "easier"

So I guess that’s a much more complicated question than I originally realized.

Wait a minute… OVAH NINE THOU-SAAAAAND????

"I'll be deep in the cold, cold ground before I recognize Missoura!"

by mattybobo on Dec 31, 2011 4:17 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Yes, but as averages rise

so does variation. You typically see such trends in indivual stats (BA or home runs most notably) but the same rationale applies to team statistics.

The St. Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champions!

by Zubin on Dec 31, 2011 4:26 PM EST up reply actions  

I thought I might have noticed a little higher variation in the eleven year look I was taking earlier

But it’s kind of a small sample, so it might not be meaningful. The top team was usually either 116 or 117 wRC+ during those year. I think in 2008 it was only 112. But the 2007 Yankees and 2003 Red Sox put up 120 wRC+.

"I'll be deep in the cold, cold ground before I recognize Missoura!"

by mattybobo on Dec 31, 2011 4:31 PM EST up reply actions  

But since we are talking about NL offenses...

I also found the 1998 Astros (114 wRC+) and the 2000 Giants (112, which actually led all of baseball).

"I'll be deep in the cold, cold ground before I recognize Missoura!"

by mattybobo on Dec 31, 2011 4:37 PM EST up reply actions  

re: '11 Cards offense being historically great

there was so much roster turnover and DL time that you almost have to specify the post-Rasmus trade/postseason edition of the offense. But yeah, I think we are not likely to see an offense with the likes of Pujols/Holliday/Berkman in the middle any time soon….we were definitely privileged to watch that.

The Cardinals and their fans were privileged to get the best of Pujols. It truly was an honor. And now the Cardinals and their fans don't have to worry about paying for the worst of Pujols.--Miklasz

by nota bene on Dec 31, 2011 3:14 PM EST up reply actions  

Not to mention how much better Molina was than he usually is

Craig was fantastic in a short period of time, Jay and Freese were both well above average but without much fanfare (until Freese’s post-season but that doesn’t count for these numbers), and Punto was way, way better than he usually is. All those extras add up. The Big Three on their own could not have made the team’s offense that good.

"I'll be deep in the cold, cold ground before I recognize Missoura!"

by mattybobo on Dec 31, 2011 3:23 PM EST up reply actions  

We led the NL in almost every major statistical category.

I don’t see much of a need to specify.

"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."

--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

by bgh on Dec 31, 2011 3:39 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, interesting...

April and September are almost mirror images of each other.

If the roster changes had any effect I suspect it was largely balanced out. Holliday and Berkman both started out red hot while Pujols struggled. Pujols really turned it on for the second half in time for those two to come back to Earth (and still be awesome, just not hitting .400 anymore). Craig was hot for spurts but had that bad injury that seemed to take forever. Somewhere along the line we acquired Furcal, who probably offset Craig’s absense, at least somewhat (though I don’t remember the specific dates involved with that so maybe not).

"I'll be deep in the cold, cold ground before I recognize Missoura!"

by mattybobo on Dec 31, 2011 4:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Colby did most of his damage earlier in the year, so trading him away (for pitching) right around when we got Furcal

probably made our offense better at the time.

"I'll be deep in the cold, cold ground before I recognize Missoura!"

by mattybobo on Dec 31, 2011 4:21 PM EST up reply actions  

That's something to consider

(Yadi’s ‘improved’ hitting last year). He had one of his best years with the bat (if not the best, I’m too lazy to look it up) last year so it just might be that his 0.5 WAR/yr slide won’t start until his age 32 or 33 season (probably not, but it’s something to consider).

I’d certainly be willing to go with at least an option for the 5th year, if that’s what it takes, at maybe a somewhat reduced salary over years 1-4. Maybe a mutual option so he could opt out if he wanted to.

by ArkansasTravs on Dec 31, 2011 11:42 AM EST up reply actions  

It was most definitely his best hitting season

wRC+ of 123, which tops his 2009 figure of 106 quite comfortably. Those are his only two years above 100, but he had a 95 wRC+ in 2008. The improvement in 2011 was almost entirely due to extra power. Everything else about his offensive profile looks pretty close to the preceding few years.

If he could combine the power of 2011 with the walk rates of his other decent years, I think Yadi might get past 5 WAR. Then take into account the problems with quantifying defense and Yadi could actually have a pretty awesome peak.

"I'll be deep in the cold, cold ground before I recognize Missoura!"

by mattybobo on Dec 31, 2011 11:56 AM EST up reply actions  

"Could" is an important word in that second paragraph...

"I'll be deep in the cold, cold ground before I recognize Missoura!"

by mattybobo on Dec 31, 2011 11:57 AM EST up reply actions  

there's nothing about Yadi's performance with the bat last year that screams "unsustainable"

except in comparison to his career numbers. What he got was a boost in power. The BABIP boost compared to his career BABIP was reflected mostly in fly balls and line drives, i.e. where you would expect to get a boost when you’re hitting the ball harder as opposed to having a lot of extra ground balls finding holes.

Would you find me more attractive if I were more attractive?
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by purple_haze on Dec 31, 2011 4:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Compared to the last few years his BABIP doesn't look out of line at all

His career BABIP is .286, but going backwards the last four years look like this: .311, .281, .309, .310. It’s not like there is a hugely “lucky” looking outlier. His terrible BABIP in 2005 and 2006 weigh down the total also.

"I'll be deep in the cold, cold ground before I recognize Missoura!"

by mattybobo on Dec 31, 2011 4:59 PM EST up reply actions  

well yeah.

i said that.

Would you find me more attractive if I were more attractive?
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by purple_haze on Dec 31, 2011 5:07 PM EST up reply actions  

I think his out-of-nowhere power increase and BABIP seem pretty unsustainable.

His ISO will likely decrease and his BABIP will likely decrease. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if this leaves him with a .320ish wOBA in 2012.

"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."

--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

by bgh on Dec 31, 2011 5:31 PM EST up reply actions  

ZIPS projects a .330 wOBA

Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.

by vivaelpujols on Dec 31, 2011 5:32 PM EST up reply actions  

This seems largely driven by a projected increase in walk rate for Yadi.

Last season, he had a low walk rate of 6.4% (in the vein of Jay, Freese, and Schumaker). I really hope it increases by 1.5-to-2%. It will need to in order to make up for his lower BA and lower ISO.

"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."

--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

by bgh on Dec 31, 2011 5:35 PM EST up reply actions  

This is what I'm really worried about

I would love if the power remains, or at least somewhat continues. But his walk rate went down at the same time his power went way the heck up. Assuming he doesn’t repeat the power (a healthy assumption) he better do other things to get on base.

"I'll be deep in the cold, cold ground before I recognize Missoura!"

by mattybobo on Dec 31, 2011 11:00 PM EST up reply actions  

Where's the out-of-nowhere BABIP increase?

"I'll be deep in the cold, cold ground before I recognize Missoura!"

by mattybobo on Dec 31, 2011 10:59 PM EST up reply actions  

After watching ESPN for about an hour this morning

I remember why I don’t watch ESPN anymore…

Piss off Tony, get shipped to Canada.

by beer me on Dec 31, 2011 11:06 AM EST reply actions  

I would prefer not to but there isn't a SBN channel so there isn't a good alternative that I know of

Manchester City: 44 points, 14-1-2, 1st in EPL, +38 GD
Sergio Aguero: 11 G, 4 A
Edin Dzeko: 10 G, 3 A

by cardinalswsbound on Dec 31, 2011 12:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Haven't see anybody talk about it

But does anybody else really love Clubhouse Confidential on MLB network. I could watch it all day! Seriously…..all day.

by Cardsray on Dec 31, 2011 1:13 PM EST up reply actions  

It's grown on me.

I wasn’t impressed when it first came out, but it’s much better than most stuff out there.

Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Second base….I’ve played second base, how hard can it be? -TLR
Also, Dave Concepcion.

by RiverRat on Dec 31, 2011 2:05 PM EST up reply actions  

I think they also were a bit gentler at the very beginning

Maybe to ease viewers into some of the stats. Only a guess though.

"I'll be deep in the cold, cold ground before I recognize Missoura!"

by mattybobo on Dec 31, 2011 2:47 PM EST up reply actions  

I just like

how it’s mostly analytics based discussion. It’s not just guys gushing over the Red Sox and Yankees and they have no problem saying a player is going to blow ass based on projections or that a club signed a player to a terrible contract.

by Cardsray on Dec 31, 2011 2:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Slightly OT, but has anyone seen

this article in today’s PD? Seems that Albert took a $4M paycut for ‘12 going back to $16M for ’13 (so they could sign Wilson). He’ll be getting over $30M/yr in the final years of his contract.

Looks like a “win now” move if I ever saw one.

by ArkansasTravs on Dec 31, 2011 11:46 AM EST reply actions  

not really. maybe I should have gone with my other thought

And talked about backloading contracts.

Basically, it’s always a good idea to backload contracts. Backloading a contract is a sound financial idea, not a win-now move.

i used to be disgusted, but now i try to be amused . . . - macmanus

by tom s. on Dec 31, 2011 11:51 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

I recognize that

(backloading) but this seems rather extreme. Of course, I’m probably letting my familiarity with $100-120M rosters cloud my judgment too since, to me, $30M sounds like 1/4-1/3 of payroll for one player (not leaving much for the rest of the roster). I don’t know what the Angels payroll was this year, or what it looks like going forward. The $30M probably doesn’t look as big to them as it would to us.

(Also, the advantage of back-loading in the current/recent economic environment is not as high as in more inflationary times)

by ArkansasTravs on Dec 31, 2011 11:58 AM EST up reply actions  

yea, hadn't thought about a more restricted definition

I wonder what the inflation rate currently is in sports contracts? Undoubtedly, as you noted, higher than general inflation.

When we were still discussing possible Albert contracts I put together a simple spreadsheet to compute present value of a contract. Unfortunately, it’s on my computer at work and I don’t have time to recreate it now. It’d be interesting to see what Albert’s LAAofA contract looks like vs. a straight $25/yr deal (depending, of course on what you use for the inflation rate).

by ArkansasTravs on Dec 31, 2011 12:04 PM EST up reply actions  

This touches on it...

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/salary-inflation-estimates-for-2012/

I would think this kind of backloading shaves $15 million or more off the NPV, but that’s just eyeballing it.

Sign Roy O

by guayzimi on Dec 31, 2011 12:11 PM EST up reply actions  

neither of the models used there were very accurate

for 2011 at least. Any model that predicts deflation in baseball salaries is suspect. The actual number for average salary in 2011, 1.2%, is more in line with overall inflation than I would have suspected. Using a modest 2% discount rate, $30M payed nine years from now is worth $25+ today so, back-loading is still valuable, but not as much as traditionally. (I didn’t do a complete contract structure but you’re estimate of $15M is probably a bit low since they are “saving” $13.4M in the first year alone).

If you use a (probably) more accurate discount (inflation) rate of, say, 6%, it makes a huge difference with the same $30M now worth only $17.6M today. I wonder what model the clubs use (i.e. how they determine the expected discount/inflation rate) in calculating salaries?

by ArkansasTravs on Dec 31, 2011 1:50 PM EST up reply actions  

i don't think they pay a lot of attention to the value of money

but a lot to revenue growth

if they used albert’s money to sign wilson, they did not invest it
so not really a factor in paying albert 10 yrs from now

TLR is gone, long live the king

by sportsman on Dec 31, 2011 6:42 PM EST up reply actions  

NPV Difference is about $13M

Je n'ai fait celle-ci plus longue parceque je n'ai pas eu le loisir de la faire plus courte

by alberich on Dec 31, 2011 7:05 PM EST up reply actions  

... using a 5% discount rate

Je n'ai fait celle-ci plus longue parceque je n'ai pas eu le loisir de la faire plus courte

by alberich on Dec 31, 2011 7:06 PM EST up reply actions  

regardless, back end loading is the same as deferring money

albert deferred 25m in the first 2 yrs of the contract, and he won’t get that back for 10 yrs

not that much different from cards 30m deferred

TLR is gone, long live the king

by sportsman on Jan 1, 2012 1:59 PM EST up reply actions  

the whole theory of why backloading works means there's no

Such thing as “extreme” backloading – at least with regard to the club, which is what you were referring to by calling it a win-now move. The club’s best interest would be to pay him a lump sum of $254m in 2021. Obviously, albert wouldn’t want that, which is why it doesn’t happen.

i used to be disgusted, but now i try to be amused . . . - macmanus

by tom s. on Dec 31, 2011 12:58 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

but now that albert and moreno are such buds

i’m sure albert will renegotiate

TLR is gone, long live the king

by sportsman on Dec 31, 2011 6:40 PM EST up reply actions  

LOLchester United

Manchester City: 44 points, 14-1-2, 1st in EPL, +38 GD
Sergio Aguero: 11 G, 4 A
Edin Dzeko: 10 G, 3 A

by cardinalswsbound on Dec 31, 2011 12:43 PM EST reply actions  

I do this every time.

After being under the weather for a couple of days I’ll feel especially lousy, but not sick exactly. Then I realize I haven’t had caffeine in days. After a cup of coffee, all systems go.

Coffee fixes everything!

#HappySeason #SadOffSeason #ImFeelingBetterThough

by The Continental on Dec 31, 2011 12:46 PM EST reply actions  

Was thinking that this morning.

Now if I can just get this fucking dog to shutup.

Beware: Velociraptors may be present.

by azruavatar on Dec 31, 2011 12:54 PM EST up reply actions  

This describes the morning I had perfectly.

"I'll be deep in the cold, cold ground before I recognize Missoura!"

by mattybobo on Dec 31, 2011 2:48 PM EST up reply actions  

My mom got me a new coffee maker for Christmas.

I brewed my first pot with it this morning. Very tasty.

"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."

--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

by bgh on Dec 31, 2011 3:40 PM EST up reply actions  

and that's when you know you're addicted to coffee

Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.

by vivaelpujols on Dec 31, 2011 5:39 PM EST up reply actions  

I CAN QUIT ANY TIME!

#HappySeason #SadOffSeason #ImFeelingBetterThough

by The Continental on Dec 31, 2011 5:45 PM EST up reply actions  

Olney's top 10 lineups in baseball

1.) Red Sox 2.) Rangers 3.) Yankees 4.) Cardinals (Number 4 in the charts number 1 in our hearts) 5.) Rockies 6.) Tigers 7.) Blue Jays 8.) Royals 9.) D-Backs 10.) Reds

Manchester City: 44 points, 14-1-2, 1st in EPL, +38 GD
Sergio Aguero: 11 G, 4 A
Edin Dzeko: 10 G, 3 A

by cardinalswsbound on Dec 31, 2011 12:49 PM EST reply actions  

That's pretty amazing

to be #4 having lost arguably the best hitter in baseball to free agency. My guess is that even with him (minus Beltran) they still don’t crack the top three.

by Xeifrank on Dec 31, 2011 12:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Is this the real buster olney or the one that's tripping balls?

Where are the Rays at? And Rockies at 5?

Beware: Velociraptors may be present.

by azruavatar on Dec 31, 2011 12:56 PM EST up reply actions  

I wouldn't put too much weight into that, he also had them in the top OFs.

That would be the OF made up of Alex Gordon, Jeff Francoeur, and Melky Cabrera/Lorenzo Cain

Manchester City: 44 points, 14-1-2, 1st in EPL, +38 GD
Sergio Aguero: 11 G, 4 A
Edin Dzeko: 10 G, 3 A

by cardinalswsbound on Dec 31, 2011 5:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Oh where did he go?

Manchester City: 44 points, 14-1-2, 1st in EPL, +38 GD
Sergio Aguero: 11 G, 4 A
Edin Dzeko: 10 G, 3 A

by cardinalswsbound on Dec 31, 2011 6:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Giants

#HappySeason #SadOffSeason #ImFeelingBetterThough

by The Continental on Dec 31, 2011 6:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Whoa, did not see this.

My gut reaction is that Sanchez is a bit much to give up for Cabrera

Manchester City: 44 points, 14-1-2, 1st in EPL, +38 GD
Sergio Aguero: 11 G, 4 A
Edin Dzeko: 10 G, 3 A

by cardinalswsbound on Dec 31, 2011 6:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Okay maybe not, Melky put up 4 WAR last year.... I'm stunned.

Manchester City: 44 points, 14-1-2, 1st in EPL, +38 GD
Sergio Aguero: 11 G, 4 A
Edin Dzeko: 10 G, 3 A

by cardinalswsbound on Dec 31, 2011 6:12 PM EST up reply actions  

only 1 year like that though.

Sanchez isn’t all that great either though.

Trade Westbrook

by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Dec 31, 2011 6:14 PM EST up reply actions  

also #1 in the NL!

I wanted to play baseball!
-Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 31, 2011 6:20 PM EST up reply actions  

guh, new year's eve

i’m getting too old for this holiday

by Pegasus on Dec 31, 2011 12:50 PM EST reply actions  

almost was going to stay in this year

but I’m headed out to some party at the usual spot I go to each year

I wanted to play baseball!
-Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 31, 2011 6:21 PM EST up reply actions  

You are a good man TC

Also, I suggest putting a $50 bill in a “Papillon tube” pocket of your wallet (which you save for emergencies/cab fare – not extra drinking money!)

11 in 11' √
12 in 12', WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!.

by I-Musial-ly-Am on Dec 31, 2011 1:05 PM EST up reply actions  

i will probably not have any alcohol tonight

in fact, there’s a significant chance i won’t participate. new year’s eve isn’t much fun if you don’t consider being drunk to be a recreational activity

by prophetjohn on Dec 31, 2011 1:15 PM EST up reply actions  

The wife and I are going to some pretentious restaraunt with friends out of town.

I’m sure I’ll stick out like a sore thumb. But they do have over 60 beers. Half of which are probably fruited.

Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Second base….I’ve played second base, how hard can it be? -TLR
Also, Dave Concepcion.

by RiverRat on Dec 31, 2011 2:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Did you inspire this RR?

use of term Asshatery …Video postdates your sig link

Start at about 2:98 if bored

I’m sure it’s nexdef’d but I just found it after watching the how to piss in public video from the other day. Also the video is funny

11 in 11' √
12 in 12', WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!.

by I-Musial-ly-Am on Dec 31, 2011 3:06 PM EST up reply actions  

I doubt it. But it is funny.

Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Second base….I’ve played second base, how hard can it be? -TLR
Also, Dave Concepcion.

by RiverRat on Dec 31, 2011 3:17 PM EST up reply actions  

I have to leave my new years party to pick up my godmother from the airport

so yeah, no drinky for me.

Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.

by vivaelpujols on Dec 31, 2011 4:20 PM EST up reply actions  

It doesn't matter now. You've reached the age of majority.

"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."

--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

by bgh on Dec 31, 2011 5:36 PM EST up reply actions  

huh?

Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.

by vivaelpujols on Dec 31, 2011 5:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Godparents exist to take custody of children in the event a tragedy takes the lives of the parents.

So, Azru not knowing who his godparents are doesn’t matter because he’ll never need godparents.

"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."

--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

by bgh on Dec 31, 2011 5:48 PM EST up reply actions  

i probably won't either

i’ll probably do nothing but sit in the basement & cry. it’s tradition i celebrate every night

Balls

by gdm426 on Dec 31, 2011 5:50 PM EST up reply actions  

So speculation to what he gets, but have there been any rumors about

the Cards and him negotiating? I’m not thinking he stays until he resigns to do so.

because TLR

by punchinjudy on Dec 31, 2011 2:23 PM EST reply actions  

I dont get what the hell they are trying to do

They play in a pretty weak division and are still stuck with some really huge contracts (peavy, konerko, dunn, rios)…..they also have a pretty weak farm system. Not really sure what direction they are trying to go. I guess Danks is still pretty young, but if they really wanted to go into rebuild mode, trading away Floyd and Danks would have been the best way to restock the farm considering what Gonzalez and Latos brought in.

by mick311 on Dec 31, 2011 3:00 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

the only reason i can think they didnt trade

danks or floyd was asking price…they were asking for a “ubaldo” type offer

because TLR

by punchinjudy on Dec 31, 2011 3:14 PM EST up reply actions  

Personally, I think Danks is prob better than

Gonzalez. I guess it prob would have been a little more difficult for them to get the kind of return OAK got for him or Floyd considering their respective salaries and lack of team control.

by mick311 on Dec 31, 2011 3:42 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

that picture will never. get. old.

The Cardinals and their fans were privileged to get the best of Pujols. It truly was an honor. And now the Cardinals and their fans don't have to worry about paying for the worst of Pujols.--Miklasz

by nota bene on Dec 31, 2011 3:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Has anyone posted this before?

I don’t remember seeing it. That’s a terrific photo.

"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."

--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

by bgh on Dec 31, 2011 3:42 PM EST up reply actions  

The "TEBOW!" one, or a newer SI?

"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."

--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

by bgh on Dec 31, 2011 5:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Maybe it wasn't the most recent one.

It’s the one with Eric Legrand on the front. The college football player who is in a wheelchair. The issue where the fans picked the cover photo.

by Cheeseballs on Dec 31, 2011 5:47 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Okay, I think we still have that one at the office.

"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."

--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

by bgh on Dec 31, 2011 5:49 PM EST up reply actions  

Relevant

The negative waves. Always with the negative waves...

Elation. Sadness. Mayhem. Champagne. Sleepless fury. Never been a night like it. - Joe Posnanski

by TBender on Dec 31, 2011 4:02 PM EST up reply actions  

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOG

#HappySeason #SadOffSeason #ImFeelingBetterThough

by The Continental on Dec 31, 2011 3:06 PM EST up reply actions  

loved the shot of Soto with a Cardinals celebration in the background

what’s even sweeter about it is I can’t immediately tell which game that’s from, cause the Cards had three walkoffs on the Cubs this year….

The Cardinals and their fans were privileged to get the best of Pujols. It truly was an honor. And now the Cardinals and their fans don't have to worry about paying for the worst of Pujols.--Miklasz

by nota bene on Dec 31, 2011 3:25 PM EST up reply actions  

You mean the one posted upthread?

That’s game 6 vs. the rangers – Napoli walking off. See the beard which Soto couldn’t grow if his life depended on it.

Sign Roy O

by guayzimi on Dec 31, 2011 3:28 PM EST up reply actions  

no, from the LL post you linked

The Cardinals and their fans were privileged to get the best of Pujols. It truly was an honor. And now the Cardinals and their fans don't have to worry about paying for the worst of Pujols.--Miklasz

by nota bene on Dec 31, 2011 3:29 PM EST up reply actions  

Yup...

I gotcha… I can’t believe I missed that one. It must have been from one of the back-to-back Pujols walkoffs. Those were both day games iiirc.

Sign Roy O

by guayzimi on Dec 31, 2011 3:31 PM EST up reply actions  

I think so

might have been this game, too.

Just look at that line score. It’s so perfect. Vintage Cubs.

also, for shits and giggles:

Berkman F8
Holliday 1B; Greene PR for Holliday
Greene SB, advances to 3rd on E2
Freese K
Molina BB; Chambers PR for Molina
Schumaker BB
Theriot BB, scores Greene
WP w/ Furcal at bat, scores Chambers, commence fireworks.

2011 in a nutshell. What a year.

The Cardinals and their fans were privileged to get the best of Pujols. It truly was an honor. And now the Cardinals and their fans don't have to worry about paying for the worst of Pujols.--Miklasz

by nota bene on Dec 31, 2011 3:44 PM EST up reply actions   2 recs

MARMLOL

The negative waves. Always with the negative waves...

Elation. Sadness. Mayhem. Champagne. Sleepless fury. Never been a night like it. - Joe Posnanski

by TBender on Dec 31, 2011 4:04 PM EST up reply actions  

Also, aftermath...

The negative waves. Always with the negative waves...

Elation. Sadness. Mayhem. Champagne. Sleepless fury. Never been a night like it. - Joe Posnanski

by TBender on Dec 31, 2011 4:06 PM EST up reply actions  

And if a human sized Adron Collider can lift Yadi off the ground...

just imagine what the one in Cern can do.

The negative waves. Always with the negative waves...

Elation. Sadness. Mayhem. Champagne. Sleepless fury. Never been a night like it. - Joe Posnanski

by TBender on Dec 31, 2011 4:08 PM EST up reply actions  

AIR!

11 in 11' √
12 in 12', WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!.

by I-Musial-ly-Am on Dec 31, 2011 5:00 PM EST up reply actions  

Nevermind...

I see what you’re talking about now. How did I miss that?

Sign Roy O

by guayzimi on Dec 31, 2011 3:29 PM EST up reply actions  

Az, where are the last two stars on Kingdom Rush?

i only got 60
and damn you for posting a link to that game

"I still don’t understand what commercial is better than having me on tv" – Chris Carpenter
2011: Boog would've count 78

by d-dee on Dec 31, 2011 3:38 PM EST reply actions  

oh, an i also don't know how to free the sasquatch

"I still don’t understand what commercial is better than having me on tv" – Chris Carpenter
2011: Boog would've count 78

by d-dee on Dec 31, 2011 3:44 PM EST up reply actions  

fire attack on the ice that he's in, then I think you have to pay him.

Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Second base….I’ve played second base, how hard can it be? -TLR
Also, Dave Concepcion.

by RiverRat on Dec 31, 2011 3:53 PM EST up reply actions  

where?

i got all levels 3 stars on normal, plus all challenges on normal and that’s 12*5=60/62 (it says 62)
i am missing 8 achievements though, maybe i get the last two when i have all of the achievements?

"I still don’t understand what commercial is better than having me on tv" – Chris Carpenter
2011: Boog would've count 78

by d-dee on Dec 31, 2011 5:39 PM EST up reply actions  

pretty sure

look

"I still don’t understand what commercial is better than having me on tv" – Chris Carpenter
2011: Boog would've count 78

by d-dee on Dec 31, 2011 11:48 PM EST up reply actions  

That's weird. The thirteenth level is at Sarelgaz's lair.

It involves a big ass spider. Don’t know why it didn’t send you there after level 12.

by Willie McGee's Twin on Jan 1, 2012 1:41 AM EST up reply actions  

Stolen from a message board

You need to click the link to facebook and twitter and you’ll get 2 stars. It should pop-up after a mission.

Beware: Velociraptors may be present.

by azruavatar on Jan 1, 2012 1:44 PM EST up reply actions  

i thought you get stars for being perfect on a level?

Swing and a high drive to center field...GET UP BABY...GET UP BABY, GET UP...OH YEAH - Shannon, Gm 6

by OurSaviorAaronMiles on Dec 31, 2011 4:01 PM EST up reply actions  

hahaha

I only have like 35 stars or something so I don’t know.

I’ve beaten all the levels and am working through the first challenge waves now (not the iron fist but the olive branch ones).

Beware: Velociraptors may be present.

by azruavatar on Dec 31, 2011 4:19 PM EST up reply actions  

Heh

I’ve only piled up 30 stars so far. I’ve finished the first ten maps and kept going back to get three stars at each. I figured this would be advantageous because I could have relatively more upgrades. However, I am somewhat lacking in the strategy department and keep getting stuck.

"I'll be deep in the cold, cold ground before I recognize Missoura!"

by mattybobo on Dec 31, 2011 4:25 PM EST up reply actions  

Also, I just discovered this game William and Sly 2 today so hopefully I don't spend all of New Year's Eve playing these two games

William and Sly 2 is kind of like Metroid, only there are not enemies, no guns, you play as a fox, and you’re in a forest with caves the mood alternates between very peaceful and a little creepy.

"I'll be deep in the cold, cold ground before I recognize Missoura!"

by mattybobo on Dec 31, 2011 4:26 PM EST up reply actions  

i don't really like wordpress. i don't feel like i have enough control

as far as i can tell, to change the font size or style, i have to either pay $30 or wrap every paragraph in every post in a <div> or <span> and set the styles

does anyone know if i’m wrong and just missing it?

by prophetjohn on Dec 31, 2011 3:51 PM EST reply actions  

It's the internet, not a book

Let the user set the font size and style. What is readable on an iPhone is not on a 19" 1080p widescreen monitor

by DiscoJer on Dec 31, 2011 11:58 PM EST up reply actions  

With Tony Cruz and Bryan Anderson around the corner

Is it wise to invest in a 30 year old catcher? Don’t get me wrong, Yadi may be better than either despite his age, but is that difference worth the ~$8-9 million marginal cost?

The St. Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champions!

by Zubin on Dec 31, 2011 4:22 PM EST reply actions  

I find myself thinking the same thing.

Assuming those two can approximate league average, could that Yadier money be better spent elsewhere? With Aybar, Phillips, and other MIFs coming up for FA we might be better off spending there.

Still, I’d like to see the Cards offer 5/40 to Yadi- at that rate and with a backloaded deal we could come out considerably ahead even if Cruzderson is average.

"Congratulations to the Cardinals! Such a fun world series." - Salman Rushdie

by hazel on Dec 31, 2011 6:18 PM EST up reply actions  

Tablet advice, please!

I’ve been fooling around with my mom’s Galaxy tab, and I really enjoy it. I really just want something I can play simple games on and browse the web. I’m leaning toward the playbook 16gb, which is $199 from some places. Any thoughts on that?

11.4

by a fink on Dec 31, 2011 4:25 PM EST reply actions  

thanks much

Would you find me more attractive if I were more attractive?
Twitter | Google+

by purple_haze on Dec 31, 2011 4:57 PM EST up reply actions  

your welcome very much

Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.

by vivaelpujols on Dec 31, 2011 5:00 PM EST up reply actions  

Timing of a Molina extension

I realize that the last year before a contract is over is the best time to extend someone, but wouldn’t the Cards be ‘buying high’ on Yadi right now? I’d prefer to wait until August and see what kind of year Yadi is having and then extend him similar to how they handled Carp or Berk (similar in timing, not in contract terms, of course).

At that point, Yadi may want to just wait and become a FA, so that’s a risk of this approach. I suppose ultimately if he’ll take 4 years and $42M or so, I’d do it this offseason anyway.

by awpierce on Dec 31, 2011 4:39 PM EST reply actions  

Why would you even bother risking losing him?

It didn’t work with Albert. It didn’t work with Edgar Renteria. It certainly won’t work with Yadier Molina.

Trade Westbrook

by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Dec 31, 2011 4:52 PM EST up reply actions  

in a negotiation right now

He has enormous leverage coming off of last year. I think it will be tough for the Cards to offer enough to keep him from waiting to hit the market. I think it probably will take something like 4 yrs/54M per to do it.

So risking losing him may ultimately mean simply refusing to meet his demand for a deal that would pay him much greater than his value over the next several years.

Don’t get me wrong — I’d love to extend the guy, I just think Yadi’s in a strong position and so accomplishing a reasonable deal might be more challenging than it would seem.

by awpierce on Dec 31, 2011 5:19 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Its not necessarily a slam dunk,

but they’d be foolish not to make an attempt. A strong attempt. He may very well be intent on just “pulling an Albert” and then it is out of their hands.

Trade Westbrook

by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Dec 31, 2011 5:26 PM EST up reply actions  

Carpenter and Berkman are old.

Yadi is in his peak years and will get a fat fat contract if he hits free agency. If the Cardinals bid tops out at 4/42…someone will just come along and offer him 4/48 or 4/50 (if not more). If the Cardinals would like to keep Yadier Molina they better get it done soon. If they don’t give a shit about keeping him or not….then, yeah…let him hit free agency. I imagine they’d like to keep him.

Trade Westbrook

by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Dec 31, 2011 4:55 PM EST up reply actions  

yadi going to free agency doesn't mean the org doesn't want him

they signed matt holiday to the largest contract in franchise history after “letting” him get to free agency

how do you know that cardinals haven’t offered yadi an extension already? how do you know he doesn’t want to test free agency?

and we won the world series.

by YesWeOquendo on Dec 31, 2011 5:27 PM EST up reply actions  

He might want to test free agency.

That would be him deciding he
A) wants to get the largest deal imaginable by getting teams to bid against each other.
B) wants to leave.

The team cannot control these two options.

The other option is to try to sign him now. This is the option that has the highest percentage chance of retaining him. If the Cardinals want to retain him, they should start this process ASAP. Not doing so often leads to their desired player no longer being with the team.

Matt Holliday is pretty much the only example of the Cardinals winning a bidding war for a player. Getting into an unncessary bidding war leads to paying more than you though you would, or losing your player.

Do I know whether or not the Cardinals have already offered Molina a deal? No, I don’t. But I do know that this kind of stuff leaks out all the time and it would actually be somewhat surprising if they did offer him a deal that he rejected and the media never found out about it. This stuff doesn’t stay very secret anymore.

Trade Westbrook

by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Dec 31, 2011 5:42 PM EST up reply actions  

I mean I could understand this position if:

A) Bryan Anderson, Tony Cruz, or Robert Stock were LEGITIMATE catching prospects. They are not and I don’t understand why anyone would pretend that they are.
B) If the Cardinals had a terrible farm system and need the money for starting pitching. They do not. The future of the Cardinals rotation looks amazing (Waino needs an extension, but we can afford that too)
C) The Cardinals were broke. They are not. They’ll have more financial flexibility in the next couple years than they’ve had in quite a long time.
D) If Yadi was 35 and not 30. Plenty of catchers…in fact MOST elite catchers are still starting regularly at ages 34 and 35. FFS, Yadi’s fatter and even slower brother Benji was still starting plenty at age 34-35. Can we please quit acting like Yadi is some decrepit old man? After his new 4 or 5 year deal is over then we can start legitimately questioning if we want to keep him around.
E) If Yadier Molina wouldn’t garner any free agent interest. He will. Every team in baseball would love to have Yadier behind the plate.

Trade Westbrook

by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Dec 31, 2011 5:10 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree with basically all of this

there are lots of reasons for the Cards to try to sign him and now is the window for that.

However, Yadi and his representation are certainly aware of all these things, too, which drive up the number of dollars and years they can ask for. it’d be great if he took less than he could reasonably expect to get on the open market, but I am not confident he would.

by awpierce on Dec 31, 2011 6:00 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree with you, but on D

Although Bengie is in fact fatter and slower, he didn’t catch nearly as many innings as Yadi has going into his age 34 and 35 seasons. Bengie’s age 34 season was his fifth 1000+ inning year, while Yadi already has 5 and is only 28. Bengie’s avg. innings per season is 826 while Yadi’s is 958, which does concern me a little.

In any case, however, I do agree we should sign him to an extension and am fine with a 4/48 or even 5/50.

Manchester City: 44 points, 14-1-2, 1st in EPL, +38 GD
Sergio Aguero: 11 G, 4 A
Edin Dzeko: 10 G, 3 A

by cardinalswsbound on Dec 31, 2011 6:03 PM EST up reply actions  

"What

Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.

by vivaelpujols on Dec 31, 2011 5:34 PM EST reply actions  

"What's the name if this gastropod?"

“Simpsons, sir, one of your chair-moisteners from sector 7G”.

Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.

by vivaelpujols on Dec 31, 2011 5:34 PM EST up reply actions  

"Who's that goat-legged fellow, Smithers? I like the cut of his jib."

“Prince of Darkness, sir. He’s your eleven o’clock.”

"I'll be deep in the cold, cold ground before I recognize Missoura!"

by mattybobo on Dec 31, 2011 11:06 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

there's no way to make my G+ totally private is there?

i know i can only make posts & stuff just been seen by people in my circle or whatever it’s called, but if you still search my name you can see it can’t you?

and yes i know no one uses G+, i’ve never even used it, but i got an email today from a relative inviting me & i just don’t want anyone i’m related to having access to my stuff online

Balls

by gdm426 on Dec 31, 2011 5:42 PM EST reply actions  

she gave you her ticket?

that was nice of her. I guess she is busy packing their bags?

Trade Westbrook

by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Dec 31, 2011 6:15 PM EST up reply actions  

My dad is friends with her

and she offered him 8 tickets (apparently 400 level, but free)

RE-SIGN EVERYONE

by Notorious PSC on Dec 31, 2011 6:26 PM EST up reply actions  

getting sick of all the NYE wishes already

it’s going to be a looooooooooooong night

Balls

by gdm426 on Dec 31, 2011 6:14 PM EST reply actions  

happy new year!

see you next year!
Don’t drink and drive!
So glad 2011 is over!
#everytweet

www.stlgatekeepers.com
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"

by rocKStark5 on Dec 31, 2011 6:58 PM EST up reply actions  

Get er done mo!

Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.

by vivaelpujols on Dec 31, 2011 6:29 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

We've signed some of their/their former gritty veterans over the years, and KMac could help with their rebuilding let's do it

Like this would happen, but I’d be for it

Yes of course they signed Edmonds

11 in 11' √
12 in 12', WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!.

by I-Musial-ly-Am on Dec 31, 2011 6:30 PM EST up reply actions  

We don't need him right now

I’d like to have him, but its just not a need with a full rotation and Miller/Martinez as top guys, plus Lynn/Scrabble as potentials

RE-SIGN EVERYONE

by Notorious PSC on Dec 31, 2011 6:28 PM EST up reply actions  

From the Land of the Morning Calm, A Happy New Year to all you good folks.

2012 is The Year of the Dragon which signifies Luck.. With that I hope everyone has a successful and great 2012. Goooooo CARDS!!
This was one excellent read this morning VEBer’s, once again thanks for the enlightenment.

by Tuning in from Korea on Dec 31, 2011 6:18 PM EST reply actions  

Well, so far so good in 2012, it's pretty cloudy and foggy where I'm at this morning, so I'm

glad I didn’t get up before the crack of dawn for a hike up mountain top to see the first sunrise for 2012. Feels like it can snow today.
I do wish I jet-pack or some high speed beam me up tech to get around, though I am lucky that I can take the subway to work and back every day, I haven’t driven the car in ages.

I finished up listening to game 7 of the 64 WS, and boy, that double play Shannon made to kill a Yankee rally was top notch, also liked it when he and McCarver were on the corners, and make the double steal.. Damn that was great, the whole game was great!

by Tuning in from Korea on Dec 31, 2011 7:03 PM EST up reply actions  

So in the future you can watch and listen to classic cardinals games at will? Can you alter the outcomes?

Do you know if Waino comes back healthy, Carp’s toe heals in time for him to be ready for Spring Training, and how Berk and Beltran will fare? It’s amazing to speak to someone from the future, what else awaits us TK?

11 in 11' √
12 in 12', WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!.

by I-Musial-ly-Am on Dec 31, 2011 7:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Like Pujols, Molina has more value with the Cardinals

In fact, possibly more so. Molina is arguably more popular than Pujols (prior to his defection, of course) and one of the undisputed leaders in the clubhouse. I don’t think Molina’s glove-first/bat-second resume will have the same kind of importance that it has in St. Louis, where Cards fans are absolutely nuts for him.

Still, I really have a hard time saying “okay” to a contract worth more than $10M AAV for any catcher, and especially one with tricky knees over 30 years old.

www.stlcardinalbaseball.com

by Ray DeRousse on Dec 31, 2011 6:37 PM EST reply actions  

Please don't blow this Illini

we haven’t won in 6 games, please don’t blow this bowl

RE-SIGN EVERYONE

by Notorious PSC on Dec 31, 2011 6:51 PM EST reply actions  

One of my New Year's resolutions is to let go of the whole "Albert to Angels" thing

He’s a douchebag. That’s all. Time to move on.

Ad Maiorem Tortius Gloriam

by peppermartin on Dec 31, 2011 7:11 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

mine is to get azruavatar banned.

If I was going on a picnic, I'd invite Ryan Theriot, and I would ask him to bring the lunchables.

by stlcardinalsfang on Dec 31, 2011 8:15 PM EST up reply actions  

good one, i'll help

Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.

by vivaelpujols on Dec 31, 2011 8:47 PM EST up reply actions  

sweet. always nice to have an ally.

If I was going on a picnic, I'd invite Ryan Theriot, and I would ask him to bring the lunchables.

by stlcardinalsfang on Dec 31, 2011 9:03 PM EST up reply actions  

You win the pot

11 in 11' √
12 in 12', WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!.

by I-Musial-ly-Am on Dec 31, 2011 9:21 PM EST up reply actions  

where is this pot that you speak of?

Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.

by vivaelpujols on Dec 31, 2011 9:29 PM EST up reply actions  

Was an homage to Biloxi Blues

Best fantasy wins the pot

11 in 11' √
12 in 12', WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!.

by I-Musial-ly-Am on Dec 31, 2011 10:19 PM EST up reply actions  

A very Happy New Year, VEB

May 2012 bring all what you desire and much more. Mis mejores deseos para todos ustedes.

When the Cardinals won the World Series, Ryan Theriot was batting lead-off.
Bilingual Twitter

by Paulspike on Dec 31, 2011 7:13 PM EST reply actions  

Happy New Year, VEB!

"I was a victim of a series of accidents, as are we all."

twitter @sirensofsilence

by sirensofsilence on Dec 31, 2011 7:25 PM EST reply actions  

happy 2012, shitlords.

If I was going on a picnic, I'd invite Ryan Theriot, and I would ask him to bring the lunchables.

by stlcardinalsfang on Dec 31, 2011 8:15 PM EST reply actions  

people were talking about an ultimate dream concert last night?

mine would be this one:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thelonious_Monk_Quartet_with_John_Coltrane_at_Carnegie_Hall

Lady Day, Monk, COLTRANE COLTRANE COLTRANE, Ray Charles, Chet Baker, Sonny Rollins, Dizzy Gillespie.

i would empty my bank account to see this.

Would you find me more attractive if I were more attractive?
Twitter | Google+

by purple_haze on Dec 31, 2011 9:09 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

Happy New Year's y'all

2011 was awesome, here’s to an even better 2012!

I wanted to play baseball!
-Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 31, 2011 9:19 PM EST reply actions  

so i kinda checked out of baseball topics the last couple weeks

so this has probably been discussed but can someone explain to me the reasoning behind structuring pujols’ contract like they have? i mean paying a 40 year old dh 30 mil seems unorthodox to say the least…

"I still don’t understand what commercial is better than having me on tv" – Chris Carpenter
2011: Boog would've count 78

by d-dee on Dec 31, 2011 11:26 PM EST via Android app reply actions  

Marketing

I wanted to play baseball!
-Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 1, 2012 1:53 AM EST via Android app up reply actions  

Backloading costs less

It is in effect deferring a large portion of Years 1and 2, and smaller portions of 3 and 4, until Years 6 through 10 … mostly 9 and 10.

Je n'ai fait celle-ci plus longue parceque je n'ai pas eu le loisir de la faire plus courte

by alberich on Jan 1, 2012 2:35 AM EST up reply actions  

late response,

but the article I read implied that it was so they could also sign Wilson (and let Albert’s pay go way up once Wilson’s deal is done). I agree, paying any 40 y/o $30+ seems a stretch, but it does make the total NPV of the contract a bit less (not enough less for it to make sense in my opinion).

by ArkansasTravs on Jan 1, 2012 11:27 PM EST up reply actions  

ugh Ceelo, you had to sing the cheesiest song ever written?

way to ring in the New Year, buddy.

Would you find me more attractive if I were more attractive?
Twitter | Google+

by purple_haze on Dec 31, 2011 11:57 PM EST reply actions  

thank god for JB Smoove

Would you find me more attractive if I were more attractive?
Twitter | Google+

by purple_haze on Jan 1, 2012 12:02 AM EST up reply actions  

I am watching some sort of network New Years Eve programming

There’s this weird twangy sounding guy on. I’m listening to Bobby Brown instead.

"I'll be deep in the cold, cold ground before I recognize Missoura!"

by mattybobo on Jan 1, 2012 12:04 AM EST up reply actions  

And now Billy Squier

"I'll be deep in the cold, cold ground before I recognize Missoura!"

by mattybobo on Jan 1, 2012 12:10 AM EST up reply actions  

Jesus Christ, NBC is just an unrepentant whore

Would you find me more attractive if I were more attractive?
Twitter | Google+

by purple_haze on Jan 1, 2012 12:17 AM EST up reply actions  

Not a Tony Bennett fan?

"I'll be deep in the cold, cold ground before I recognize Missoura!"

by mattybobo on Jan 1, 2012 12:24 AM EST up reply actions  

Well apparently it's their best tasting shakes ever!

Doesn’t that make you excited???

"I'll be deep in the cold, cold ground before I recognize Missoura!"

by mattybobo on Jan 1, 2012 1:08 AM EST up reply actions  

is he a living tribute to onion icon Smoove B?

i used to be disgusted, but now i try to be amused . . . - macmanus

by tom s. on Jan 1, 2012 1:51 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

he's this guy

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KUu6Y5_xysQ

you’re welcome

Would you find me more attractive if I were more attractive?
Twitter | Google+

by purple_haze on Jan 1, 2012 2:56 AM EST up reply actions  

Smoove B is a national treasure

"I'll be deep in the cold, cold ground before I recognize Missoura!"

by mattybobo on Jan 1, 2012 10:13 AM EST up reply actions  

I don't know about y'all,

but I am partying!

By “partying” I mean that I am sitting in my basement, alone (wife works New Years Eve and New Year’s Day, yipeeeee) watching the rest of Ghostbusters II and drinking beer.

"I'll be deep in the cold, cold ground before I recognize Missoura!"

by mattybobo on Dec 31, 2011 11:58 PM EST reply actions  

Also, I'm bored

So here’s a gratuitously “internet” kind of picture. I think it does a good job of representing a certain portion of the cultural oeuvre, so to speak:

"I'll be deep in the cold, cold ground before I recognize Missoura!"

by mattybobo on Jan 1, 2012 12:06 AM EST reply actions  

So

I literally just spent the 2011/2012 transition helping my daughter get cleaned up from vomiting in her bed.
HAPPY NU YAER EVERBUDDY

"I'll be deep in the cold, cold ground before I recognize Missoura!"

by mattybobo on Jan 1, 2012 1:10 AM EST reply actions  

this is why you don't let infants drink champagne.

bad bobo.

"Our son Dick was sitting in his high chair, and I looked at that money, and I knew I could never look my son in the face again, if I took that money" (to leave the Cardinals) -Stan Musial, 1946
Why trade "The Mang"for "El Salmon", for less than $2M/yr, after taxes?

by SleepyCA on Jan 1, 2012 1:43 AM EST up reply actions  

WHATEVER YOU DO, DON'T PUT HER BACK.

They like to wait till the bed is made, then puke again. Just hold her, maybe over the tub, till you’re sure she’s done.

i used to be disgusted, but now i try to be amused . . . - macmanus

by tom s. on Jan 1, 2012 1:49 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

The funny thing is, it wasn't even that kind of vomiting

That is, she doesn’t have a bug that makes her nauseous and throw up directly. She has had a bad cough, though, and yesterday both during her nap and around 11:45 at night when she was in bed for the night the cough woke her up and made her gag so badly she just spewed.

"I'll be deep in the cold, cold ground before I recognize Missoura!"

by mattybobo on Jan 1, 2012 10:15 AM EST up reply actions  

So as soon as she was done, she was done.

"I'll be deep in the cold, cold ground before I recognize Missoura!"

by mattybobo on Jan 1, 2012 10:15 AM EST up reply actions  

just went thru that, not fun

Johnny Gomes could not be reached for comment
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.

by MaytheForschbewithyou on Jan 1, 2012 11:54 AM EST up reply actions  

hopefully you won't have to do this again

for another 15+ years…

"He may have been only .213 but they were the clutchest .213 of all time."
Running list of Molina pick-offs | twit

by BVHeck on Jan 1, 2012 2:23 AM EST up reply actions  

I want a CCDGAF New Years picture.

"I don’t like the feeling of losing."---Chris Carpenter

by cardsfan59 on Jan 1, 2012 1:45 AM EST reply actions  

Happy F'ing New Year, everybody!

Johnny Gomes could not be reached for comment
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.

by MaytheForschbewithyou on Jan 1, 2012 2:09 AM EST reply actions  

Happy Effin' new year to veb

From Alafrigginbama. And welcome Mizzou to the SEC…

Here’s to number 12 in 2012!

by RollBirdsRoll on Jan 1, 2012 2:20 AM EST reply actions  

happy new year everyone

here’s to those who wish us well, and those who don’t can go to hell!

#12in12

Balls

by gdm426 on Jan 1, 2012 3:27 AM EST reply actions  

If anyone is on

Hello and Happy New (Civil) Year

Cards fan in Middle East

by Shloz on Jan 1, 2012 5:30 AM EST reply actions  

HAPPY NEW YEAR VEBsters!!!!!!!!!

11 in 11' √
12 in 12', WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!.

by I-Musial-ly-Am on Jan 1, 2012 8:02 AM EST reply actions  

Something from the past

11.11.11

11 in 11' √
12 in 12', WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!.

by I-Musial-ly-Am on Jan 1, 2012 9:04 AM EST reply actions  

Good times

"I'll be deep in the cold, cold ground before I recognize Missoura!"

by mattybobo on Jan 1, 2012 10:19 AM EST up reply actions  

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