Morning Open Thread: Mike Matheny & the 'Sabermetricians Upstairs'
by bgh on Dec 28, 2011 10:04 AM EST
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Drew Silva of NBC Sports' Hardball Talk and Rotoworld.com gave us an intriguing tweet yesterday:
Matheny told the @ITDMorningAfter he's been gathering info from the "sabermetricians upstairs." It truly is a new era.
Audio from Tuesday's ITD Morning After can be found here. Feel free to use the morning open thread to discuss sabermetricians upstairs as opposed to in their mothers' basements, Matheny's handsomeness, Carlos Beltran, or whatever you like.
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thats a really big watch.
Piss off Tony, get shipped to Canada.
by beer me on Dec 28, 2011 10:08 AM EST via mobile reply actions
If he showed up with a tiny watch on the first day of ST...
he would never win the clubhouse.
Sign Roy O
it's not the size of the watch that matters
it’s all about the hands’ motion.
Mike Shannon: "That strikeout was brought to you by...by...well, I don't know what it was brought to you by!"
John Rooney: "It wasn't brought to you by anything Mike."
only guys with small watches would say this
Sign somebody.
by EinFesteBusch on Dec 28, 2011 11:14 AM EST up reply actions
It's NOT SMALL! It's THIN!
Mike Shannon: "That strikeout was brought to you by...by...well, I don't know what it was brought to you by!"
John Rooney: "It wasn't brought to you by anything Mike."
and that's supposed to help you?
Johnny Gomes could not be reached for comment
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Dec 28, 2011 1:02 PM EST up reply actions
I'll bet they move clockwise
"I actually used about nine pitches--two different fastballs, two sliders, a curve, a changeup, knockdown, brushback, and hit-batsman" - Bob Gibson
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Dec 28, 2011 11:32 AM EST up reply actions
Wait, I'm confused
I thought that the first day of Spring Training, you had to beat the crap out of some other guy’s watch so you’re respected.
"I'll be deep in the cold, cold ground before I recognize Missoura!"
Or just cut the
Head of the watch off and put it in a players bed.
Piss off Tony, get shipped to Canada.
by beer me on Dec 28, 2011 10:41 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Matheny is screwed then. You think he will be shown respect with his low-dollar contract.
"Why does everyone always forget about Trevor Rosenthal?"
-VolsnCards5
by Action Jaxon on Dec 28, 2011 3:42 PM EST up reply actions
I believe the Cardinals will be among the bottom three teams in sac bunts in 2012...
hallelujah.
Sign Roy O
Hallelujah indeed
And an appeal to the “sabermetricians upstairs” is about as good of an appeal to the GOBs as I can think of.
Kumar: I don't know man, I lose my touch, man.
Dignan: Did you ever have a touch to lose, man?
No, read again:
sabermetricians upstairs
Not us in the basements.
The negative waves. Always with the negative waves...
Elation. Sadness. Mayhem. Champagne. Sleepless fury. Never been a night like it. - Joe Posnanski
(Also, we don't have basements in Houston.)
The negative waves. Always with the negative waves...
Elation. Sadness. Mayhem. Champagne. Sleepless fury. Never been a night like it. - Joe Posnanski
You'd be underwater if you did.
Johnny Gomes could not be reached for comment
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Dec 28, 2011 10:34 AM EST up reply actions
I thought sabermetricians only lived downstairs
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
by mysterui on Dec 28, 2011 10:20 AM EST via iPhone app reply actions
It's the guys whose mothers bought them a suit and kicked them out.
Johnny Gomes could not be reached for comment
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Dec 28, 2011 10:35 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Like a week ago Mattheny said on the 101.1
That he thought it would be a good idea to bat Beltran 2nd
How about first?
Against righties:
Beltran
Berkman
Furcal
Holliday
Freese
Jay
Molina
Pitcher
Descalso
Against lefties
Beltran
Holliday
Furcal
Freese
Berkman
Greene
Molina
Pitcher
Jay
Sign Roy O
It would be really great if Matheny would use the Baseball Musings lineup tool to make his lineups.
It might actually trump TLR’s dice-rolling in terms of media reaction to the method behind creating a lineup.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Baseball Musing's tool's "optimal" is probably as inaccurate as "traditional"
You need to run Markov Chains to actually model run scoring where interaction matters so much. Musing’s is just a regression equation that is basically worthless at extrapolating to non-traditional lineups because it ignores the interaction effects.
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Dec 28, 2011 2:31 PM EST via Android app up reply actions 1 recs
Why are you wanting to bat Furcal third?
bollocks
by SecondHalfMatt on Dec 28, 2011 10:43 AM EST up reply actions
Why not?
Itd be better than leadoff
I wanted to play baseball!
-Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 28, 2011 11:06 AM EST via Android app up reply actions
The way he hit last year
he should either bat first, eighth or ninth.
"I actually used about nine pitches--two different fastballs, two sliders, a curve, a changeup, knockdown, brushback, and hit-batsman" - Bob Gibson
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Dec 28, 2011 11:34 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah but leadoff is very important
I wanted to play baseball!
-Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 28, 2011 1:13 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
I was asking for something more than a philosophical reason
bollocks
by SecondHalfMatt on Dec 28, 2011 11:48 AM EST up reply actions
Chitown's big into philosophy, so his answer makes sense.
Johnny Gomes could not be reached for comment
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Dec 28, 2011 1:03 PM EST up reply actions
I think studies showed that thrid is supposed to be the worst of your first five hitters.
Because they often bat with two outs and no one on.
This
I wanted to play baseball!
-Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 28, 2011 1:14 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
I very much like this sabermetrician upstairs concept
Especially coming from the manager
I wanted to play baseball!
-Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 28, 2011 1:18 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
I'm excited to see what Matheny has planned.
i was 11 the last time I saw a non-LaRussa lineup.
Mike Shannon: "That strikeout was brought to you by...by...well, I don't know what it was brought to you by!"
John Rooney: "It wasn't brought to you by anything Mike."
i still sort of can't believe that mike matheny is going to be managing the cardinals
You teach me baseball and I'll teach you relativity. No, we must not. You will learn about relativity faster than I learn baseball. --Albert Einstein
2011 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!
that first game where i don't see TLR & his shades in the dugout is going to be really weird
a good weird, but still very weird. he’s been there since i was a senior in high school. that’s a really long f’ing time
Balls
As a Packers fan that went through the Fabre change a few years ago
It’s really weird but after a couple of months you get over it
"IF CARDS CAN SIGN SUPPAN THEY CAN GIVE ME A HOME"
by Buddhasillegitimatechild38 on Dec 29, 2011 7:29 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Good, that's where I would bat him
He’s the guy with the best combination of OBP and speed.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 28, 2011 3:52 PM EST up reply actions
Beltran gets on base a lot more than Freese
You definitely want him in front of Berkman and Holliday.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 29, 2011 4:09 AM EST up reply actions
Beltran's an even better hitter against lefties than righties
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 29, 2011 5:00 AM EST up reply actions
This is going to be a very handsome Cardinals team.
just ask my girlfriend.
Mike Shannon: "That strikeout was brought to you by...by...well, I don't know what it was brought to you by!"
John Rooney: "It wasn't brought to you by anything Mike."
Either
a) You are a cardinals player
or
b) You suspect she is sleeping with a cardinals player and she refers to her mysterious ‘friend’ as handsome
Bursting into song.
my girlfriend has a growing list of "crushes" on the Cardinals.
Skip
Freese
Carp
Waino, and now
Matheny.
I don’t think I can be jealous, as I think I have man crushes on most of those guys too.
Mike Shannon: "That strikeout was brought to you by...by...well, I don't know what it was brought to you by!"
John Rooney: "It wasn't brought to you by anything Mike."
Beltran isn't too hard on the eyes
but I get a little freaked out when that mole starts talking.
Beware: Velociraptors may be present.
no he isn't
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 28, 2011 4:00 PM EST up reply actions
I don't get the love for Freese at least "crushes" wise.
I guess Game 6 will do that for you. Albeit my sister has had a crush on him since way before the playoffs so maybe it’s not just that.
I AM ACTUALLY STLCARDSFAN4 JUST TO CLARIFY YOUR POSSIBLE CONFUSION.
Yadi is missing
Every Yadi shirt that I’ve seen has been worn by a female.
Irish provenance of the schwa pronunciation of vowels in weakly stressed syllables -> Missoura
yep
my daughters would confirm Sheckie’s list above w/ the addition of Yadi and Jaime, possibly even Craig.
by ArkansasTravs on Dec 28, 2011 11:57 AM EST up reply actions
Hey now, I have a Yadi jersey and I am certainly not female
That being said, I do know a lot of women who find Yadier very attractive. A friend of mine coined the term “Yadi the Hottie.”
I am a college student that sleeps with a St. Louis Cardinals Fredbird Pillow Pet, and I am proud of it.
Women like Yadi for a different reason than attractiveness
He is like a really cute puppy.
"I don’t like the feeling of losing."---Chris Carpenter
with neck tatoos.
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Second base….I’ve played second base, how hard can it be? -TLR
Also, Dave Concepcion.
that gets all dirty & sweaty, takes control & is in charge
chicks dig a sweaty, dirty, inked up take charge kind of guy
Balls
They'll do outreach to female fans by filming commercials
with Matheny and Schumaker just casting smoldering gazes at the camera for 30 seconds.
then berkman comes running across
In banana costume.
Piss off Tony, get shipped to Canada.
by beer me on Dec 28, 2011 10:33 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Or like this
"I actually used about nine pitches--two different fastballs, two sliders, a curve, a changeup, knockdown, brushback, and hit-batsman" - Bob Gibson
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Dec 28, 2011 11:39 AM EST up reply actions
Ole!
"I actually used about nine pitches--two different fastballs, two sliders, a curve, a changeup, knockdown, brushback, and hit-batsman" - Bob Gibson
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Dec 28, 2011 11:42 AM EST up reply actions
A strong fart could probably topple you over
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 28, 2011 12:06 PM EST up reply actions
force exerts in equal and oppisote directions
so, no. It wouldn’t topple you over. Because the thrust provided would cancel out the drag that would result from it.
Grit != flat out sucking.
I don't get the Schumaker attraction
Waino, Carp, Freese, Matheny, those I get.
"I don’t like the feeling of losing."---Chris Carpenter
That'd be funny if they did it right.
Better than last year’s commercials (sans Red and Berkman picking a number)
I AM ACTUALLY STLCARDSFAN4 JUST TO CLARIFY YOUR POSSIBLE CONFUSION.
GOBs>Tebow
I am a college student that sleeps with a St. Louis Cardinals Fredbird Pillow Pet, and I am proud of it.
Also
I think this quote raises the possibility that Matheny’s housing troubles have led him to move into John Mozeliak’s basement.
by Robth on Dec 28, 2011 10:28 AM EST reply actions 2 recs
Question
Does anyone have interest in a series of fanposts of the greatest cardinals all-time at each position?
I did these for another site I am working on and would be willing to share them if there is interest.
Yeah, absolutely
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
I would definitely read 'em!
Mike Shannon: "That strikeout was brought to you by...by...well, I don't know what it was brought to you by!"
John Rooney: "It wasn't brought to you by anything Mike."
no, keep it to yourself
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
by scoot on Dec 28, 2011 11:00 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
4 out of 5 dentist
You’re being that one jerk dentist.
Piss off Tony, get shipped to Canada.
by beer me on Dec 28, 2011 11:03 AM EST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
Didn't DanUp do this during the season?
But excluding HOFers?
"I actually used about nine pitches--two different fastballs, two sliders, a curve, a changeup, knockdown, brushback, and hit-batsman" - Bob Gibson
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Dec 28, 2011 11:52 AM EST up reply actions
I don't think it was a fanpost, I think it was a main post
"I actually used about nine pitches--two different fastballs, two sliders, a curve, a changeup, knockdown, brushback, and hit-batsman" - Bob Gibson
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Dec 29, 2011 12:08 AM EST up reply actions
Given the subject line, the actual comment was very disappointing
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
Also, very possible the first time "pimp" and "VEP" have been in the same sentence
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
by mysterui on Dec 28, 2011 10:36 AM EST up reply actions 7 recs
Bitch
http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2010/12/12/1872548/brendan-ryan-was-traded-overflow#54336914
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 28, 2011 4:05 PM EST up reply actions
link is to comment about Rui's article that contains sexy men pics and a bonus picture of Rui which is also at the link in the comment
Is the lady your, now wife, Rui?
11 in 11' √
12 in 12', WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!.
by I-Musial-ly-Am on Dec 28, 2011 5:10 PM EST up reply actions
Aw this was a good VEB late night
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
not enough dating Ariane
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 28, 2011 7:35 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
did you see the comments on that?
Most of them calling the kid a brat for crying. The real meanie was the aunt/whatever that gave the present and was filming. She kept egging the kid on, asking what it was, etc. until she made the girl cry. It was a good troll, but probably a bit too young of a target, if you ask me.
by ArkansasTravs on Dec 28, 2011 12:02 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah....
Because Christmas morning is the perfect time to play a prank like that on a kid. Especially so you can record it and post your child’s distress on YouTube for the world to see.
Sometimes, I miss the pre-Internet days. This is one of those times.
I want to shake this girls hand
"IF CARDS CAN SIGN SUPPAN THEY CAN GIVE ME A HOME"
by Buddhasillegitimatechild38 on Dec 29, 2011 7:40 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Alex Rodriguez
reportedly underwent an experimental knee surgery in Europe.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Sounds like the worlds most random surgery
“Spin some blood and stick it in his knee! STAT!”
Although i’d like to hear if Scoot or Volsn knows anything about this
Bursting into song.
tiger woods had a similar 'blood spinning' surgery
after his ACL tear, IIRC
by zoomzoomj88 on Dec 28, 2011 10:56 AM EST up reply actions
I wonder if Tiger will now have an inverted W in his legs
on his follow-through?
"I actually used about nine pitches--two different fastballs, two sliders, a curve, a changeup, knockdown, brushback, and hit-batsman" - Bob Gibson
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Dec 28, 2011 11:45 AM EST up reply actions
I want to say Bartolo Colon did a similiar thing with his shoulder
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 28, 2011 10:52 AM EST up reply actions
I believe it was.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
same thing
we already do PRP procedures in the states. The theory with the centrifuging is that it concentrates the plasma (stem cells) more, IIRC.
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
Seems like something a cyclist would try
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 28, 2011 11:03 AM EST up reply actions
I meant it as a person that rides bicycles
Not a euphemism for a person doing steroids
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 28, 2011 12:04 PM EST up reply actions
I know
thought you were making a Lance Armstrong/blood doping joke
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
that's how I read it
Johnny Gomes could not be reached for comment
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Dec 28, 2011 1:07 PM EST up reply actions
And they participate in a sport with spinning wheels and pedals
11 in 11' √
12 in 12', WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!.
by I-Musial-ly-Am on Dec 28, 2011 5:15 PM EST up reply actions
No research out there yet
That’s why he did it in Europe…they don’t have the FDA frowning on such procedures.
yes, exactly
when sufficient research is available, these procedures won’t be nearly as cool because players wont have to sneak off to Europe to have them done. That assumes that the procedures are actually helpful and will have enough positive research to warrant them being FDA approved.
Thanks for weighing in, we need more PT’s here!
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
I read a 2 year study on it
And the results seem very positive.
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 28, 2011 1:37 PM EST up reply actions
Here is an article about Bartolo Colon getting stem cell treatment
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 28, 2011 12:07 PM EST up reply actions
Brendan Ryan approves of this procedure.
The negative waves. Always with the negative waves...
Elation. Sadness. Mayhem. Champagne. Sleepless fury. Never been a night like it. - Joe Posnanski
i really like Axford's shirt.
Mike Shannon: "That strikeout was brought to you by...by...well, I don't know what it was brought to you by!"
John Rooney: "It wasn't brought to you by anything Mike."
berkman and motte win best beard & beard relationship
You teach me baseball and I'll teach you relativity. No, we must not. You will learn about relativity faster than I learn baseball. --Albert Einstein
2011 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!
I hadnt
Realized how much he struggled this year. Guess he isn’t breaking bonds homerun record.
Piss off Tony, get shipped to Canada.
by beer me on Dec 28, 2011 11:02 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Let's see
He got paid $32 M this year, and managed 4.2 fWAR (2.7 bWAR), that’s ~ $7.62 M per WAR ($11.85 M per in bWAR). A tad high payment….f* you, Yanquis!
"I actually used about nine pitches--two different fastballs, two sliders, a curve, a changeup, knockdown, brushback, and hit-batsman" - Bob Gibson
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Dec 28, 2011 11:50 AM EST up reply actions
I was told there would be no math.
Piss off Tony, get shipped to Canada.
by beer me on Dec 28, 2011 12:20 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Fritz....
Hopslam is being released again next month. You need to hook me up.
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Second base….I’ve played second base, how hard can it be? -TLR
Also, Dave Concepcion.
Sounds like it has too much Hops
bollocks
by SecondHalfMatt on Dec 28, 2011 11:57 AM EST up reply actions
no such thing.
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Second base….I’ve played second base, how hard can it be? -TLR
Also, Dave Concepcion.
by RiverRat on Dec 28, 2011 12:04 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
My sister's friend is allergic to hops
Breaks out in hives
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 28, 2011 1:50 PM EST up reply actions
Just because you make it hoppy doesn't mean its going to be good
So many microbrewers have been trying to outdo each other in this quest for the hoppiest beer ever. I can’t wait for another trend to happen.
Disclaimer: I also dislike most IPAs
bollocks
by SecondHalfMatt on Dec 28, 2011 2:12 PM EST up reply actions
I'm the opposite.
IPA’s are my go to, and I’ve heard nothing but great reviews of this, and have no way to try it, as they don’t distribute to MT.
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Second base….I’ve played second base, how hard can it be? -TLR
Also, Dave Concepcion.
I love IPAs and I still agree with this.
Stone’s Ruination IPA is a hoppy bridge too far for me.
#HappySeason #SadOffSeason #ImFeelingBetterThough
by The Continental on Dec 28, 2011 2:38 PM EST up reply actions
I rather liked it.
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Second base….I’ve played second base, how hard can it be? -TLR
Also, Dave Concepcion.
Sure. It's very popular.
I really like IPAs, ESBs, etc., but Ruination tastes like crushed pine needles to me. Too much of a good thing.
#HappySeason #SadOffSeason #ImFeelingBetterThough
by The Continental on Dec 28, 2011 3:54 PM EST up reply actions
thanks.
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Second base….I’ve played second base, how hard can it be? -TLR
Also, Dave Concepcion.
If I was somehow lucky enough to make it to the majors as a knuckleball pitcher
I think I would think probably think twice about pulling this stunt. Talk about pushing your luck.
Ad Maiorem Tortius Gloriam
by peppermartin on Dec 28, 2011 12:51 PM EST up reply actions
I thought that too,
but it seems like Kilimanjaro is less of a mountain climb and more of a high altitude hike. The risk of significant injury is greater than zero, but doesn’t look to be terribly high.
/not a climber
#HappySeason #SadOffSeason #ImFeelingBetterThough
by The Continental on Dec 28, 2011 1:03 PM EST up reply actions
I wonder what a knuckleball thrown on Kilimanjaro would do?
Would it have any crazier movement then usual?
bollocks
by SecondHalfMatt on Dec 28, 2011 2:13 PM EST up reply actions
Less movement probably.
Higher elevation, less air.
The negative waves. Always with the negative waves...
Elation. Sadness. Mayhem. Champagne. Sleepless fury. Never been a night like it. - Joe Posnanski
FWIW
the layovers in Detroit and Amsterdam on the way are probably more dangerous than climbing the mountain.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Dec 28, 2011 2:18 PM EST up reply actions
What about walking in downtown Detroit on a Sunday looking for a liquor store?
Because I’ve done that and survived.
bollocks
by SecondHalfMatt on Dec 28, 2011 2:24 PM EST up reply actions
It's a Christmas Miracle!
The negative waves. Always with the negative waves...
Elation. Sadness. Mayhem. Champagne. Sleepless fury. Never been a night like it. - Joe Posnanski
I like this pickup for the Cubs
Cubs Agree To Sign Andy Sonnanstine. He got released by the Rays but think he will fair better in the NL. I would rather have him than Westbrook.
Andy Sonnanstine is barely a MLB pitcher anymore.
And he wouldn’t be an upgrade on Westbrook, who’s GB rate is above average and more than 10 percentage points above Sonnanstine’s, who’s HR/9 of .79 last season Sonnanstine has never approached, and who’s xFIP last season is lower than any recorded for Sonnastine’s career. Sonnastine is much more of a flyball pitcher than groundball one, and last season, he was killed with home runs (22.2% HR/FB ratio in 35.2 innings).
He also hasn’t been a starting pitcher in two seasons. He hasn’t pulled more than 100 innings since 2008, and he’s seriously a pitcher in a bad decline after one decent season. Sonnanstine’s a guy you take a flyer on in spring training, not somebody with whom you replace your halfway competent 5th starter.
i'm just gonna leave this here..
"I still don’t understand what commercial is better than having me on tv" – Chris Carpenter
2011: Boog would've count 78
by d-dee on Dec 28, 2011 11:58 AM EST reply actions 10 recs
question: it has been said many times lately
that the number of baseball players who perform statistically significantly better in “clutch” situations is very small. what about those who perform statistically significantly worse? has that been studied? just curious because it seems more likely that people would tend to “fold” under pressure, rather than succeed.
You teach me baseball and I'll teach you relativity. No, we must not. You will learn about relativity faster than I learn baseball. --Albert Einstein
2011 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!
I'd think baseball players who can't handle pressure rarely make it to the majors
Probably a few do. But if you really couldn’t handle pressure, my guess is you have trouble making it that high, as problems crop up earlier.
i sort of agree, but its one thing to handle pressure in a general sense
its another to handle it in a particular high leverage situation where you are personally singled out as the one who will win or lose the game.
You teach me baseball and I'll teach you relativity. No, we must not. You will learn about relativity faster than I learn baseball. --Albert Einstein
2011 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!
Small Sample Size
These occurrences would be few.
Why?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
There are people who just don't handle high pressure well
People aren’t machines. They don’t handle every instance of an event the same. In baseball, you can sometimes see hitters start swinging for the fences or pitchers losing control by throwing as fast as they can in high leverage situations. I believe golf came up one of these discussions earlier. There are plenty of times, especially at the end of majors, where you see someone who played so well in a tournament, just have a horrendous performance at a critical hole. I just don’t believe that is all due to random chance.
Wouldn't the high-pressure nature of making it to MLB and staying there weed out a lot of these types?
I think it would be highly unlikely that there are more players in MLB who wilt under pressure than players who thrive under pressure. By it’s very nature, playing in the big leagues is a high-pressure profession.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
perhaps its the idea of different types of pressure situations
and i’m not really thinking of “clutch” as a concept here, but that’s the only term i can think of. i think we can measure it better with pitchers. for instance, aren’t there some pitchers who pitch statistically significantly worse with men on base that with the bases empty? or with a runner at third rather than a runner at first? perhaps those differences are not statistically significant – i am not sure. but i am more interested in this idea from the pitching perspective, rather than the hitting perspective.
You teach me baseball and I'll teach you relativity. No, we must not. You will learn about relativity faster than I learn baseball. --Albert Einstein
2011 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!
There's a mechanical reason that pitchers pitch worse when men on base, though
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
because of working from the stretch?
You teach me baseball and I'll teach you relativity. No, we must not. You will learn about relativity faster than I learn baseball. --Albert Einstein
2011 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!
Yeah
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
you don't think that hitters change their approach based on game situations?
i mean, i am sure they do, it just isn’t as easy to see.
You teach me baseball and I'll teach you relativity. No, we must not. You will learn about relativity faster than I learn baseball. --Albert Einstein
2011 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!
Of course they do
But it hasn’t been shown in the data that players hit worse in “clutch” situations
It’s shown in the data that players change their approach with, say, a man on third with less than 2 outs
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
well thanks for finally answering my question
You teach me baseball and I'll teach you relativity. No, we must not. You will learn about relativity faster than I learn baseball. --Albert Einstein
2011 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!
When did I not answer your question?
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
i wasn't trying to single you out per se
my only question was whether the studies on “clutch” also included the idea of “choking”
You teach me baseball and I'll teach you relativity. No, we must not. You will learn about relativity faster than I learn baseball. --Albert Einstein
2011 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!
it spawned a much larger subthread than i anticipated
i just wanted to know if anyone has studied the opposite of clutchiness. i imagine the results would be the same in any event, but that was all i wanted to know.
You teach me baseball and I'll teach you relativity. No, we must not. You will learn about relativity faster than I learn baseball. --Albert Einstein
2011 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!
On every fangraphs page
there is a clutch stat. It can be negative.
Beware: Velociraptors may be present.
I think those values proves that its not predictive
Pujols went from -1.65 in ’05 to 3.3 in ’06.
I smacked Rickey right in the face when he told me this idea.
...
i just wanted to know if anyone has studied the opposite of clutchiness.
The answer is “yes,” and I linked a study looking at that issue to your original comment.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Dec 28, 2011 1:48 PM EST up reply actions
sorry, the subject line of your comment made me think you were kind of being facetious
i didn’t realize that is what you were linking to.
You teach me baseball and I'll teach you relativity. No, we must not. You will learn about relativity faster than I learn baseball. --Albert Einstein
2011 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!
I think that those effects are overblown
Batters say they do but this is often hard to verify in a meaningful way.
More importantly, is there any evidence that changes in approach produce changes in results? Intent doesn’t necessitate a variance in outcomes and if it is the same outcomes who cares what the intent was.
Beware: Velociraptors may be present.
From Kevin Davidoff
A.J. requested the 2011 Yankees’ performance with runners in scoring position when they’re up by two, down by two and everything in between.
Thanks to my friends at Baseball-Reference.com, I was able to deliver: Here are the numbers .
Overall, in 6,306 regular-season plate appearances, the 2011 Yankees tallied a .343 OBP and .444 SLG. 1,053 of those plate appearances fit A.J.’s “clutch” definition. In those opportunities, they put up a .370 OBP and .431 SLG.
Pretty much what we’d expect, right? Opponents pitch more carefully with runners in scoring position, and the Yankees worked their at-bats more carefully, walking more often and settling for a base hit over extra bases. In all, they delivered 351 RBI in their 854 “clutch” at-bats, a vastly superior ratio to their overall 836 RBI in 6,306 at-bats.
I agree it’s hard to verify, but I also don’t think the idea that batters change their approach when runners are in scoring position is something that can be easily dismissed, either.
I disagree that this shows a change in intent (certainly for the batters).
This is conflating results with approach.
I think you’d have to look at things like pitch selection, swing/miss rates and other process inputs rather than the outcome of an at bat. Even then you have to normalize for a lot of things (e.g. in clutch situations you are more likely to see a better batter at the plate as a pinch hitter).
Beware: Velociraptors may be present.
Not sure I agree with this
Why do some relievers pitch only from the stretch then? Sorry if I’m missing your point.
Kumar: I don't know man, I lose my touch, man.
Dignan: Did you ever have a touch to lose, man?
To simplify mechanics, especially when they pitch so often with runners on base.
Also, it is not the case that all pitchers pitch worse out of the stretch, only that some do.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Dec 28, 2011 1:20 PM EST up reply actions
To expand on that...
The stretch helps to get the ball to the catcher faster to protect against an easy steal. Pitching out of a windup takes longer, and doing so with a runner going also can distract the pitcher into a balk.
Yes, of course. That;'s the reason pitchers pitch out of the stretch.
I’m sure lightbulb’s comment was directed to the fact that some relief pitchers pitch out the stretch even when there are no runners on base.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Dec 28, 2011 1:51 PM EST up reply actions
doesn't effect velocity
not neccesarily disagreeing though.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 28, 2011 4:07 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe Cliff Lee--until the 2011 NLDS.
That is the problem with this exercise. Is Cliff Lee less clutch because of the 2011 NLDS? Or, did he just get really unlucky on grounders? Does one game in the 2011 NLDS disprove his cold-bloodedness?
Mariano Rivera is another example. But then how do we explain Game 7 of the World Series?
There very well could be physiological differences that make players better under pressure. But I think this trait would manifest itself so many times before the biggest situations in the postseason that most of the chokers have been weeded out in the minor leagues and regular season.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Obviously one or two instances doesn't prove that someone folds under pressure
What I am talking about is the idea that certain people just perform worse under high pressure. Also, I should add that I don’t think this is some immutable, permanent characteristic, but instead something that can be fixed over time as people get used to being in high-pressure situations. In other words, practice makes perfect, but it just takes some people some effort in order to teach themselves how to remain calm in some situations.
that is probably true that "chokers" are weeded out earlier
of course, i also agree that the sample sizes are simply too small for us to meaningfully measure anything.
You teach me baseball and I'll teach you relativity. No, we must not. You will learn about relativity faster than I learn baseball. --Albert Einstein
2011 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!
Agreed.
There’s a big difference between a regular season game (which, if you lose, you’ve got more than 100 chances to make it right), and a post-season game (which, if you lose, could end your season). I would think baseball in April is far different than baseball in late August and September, especially for those teams who are either fighting for a playoff spot or are so far out of the running. Plus, some cities are far more difficult to play in than others; whether you’re comparing a town like New York or Boston, where the media and fanbase scrutiny is at an extreme, to a town like San Diego or Seattle, where there’s some attention but the outside pressure and attention to players’ every action is far less.
Remember that Khalil Greene became a major leaguer while dealing with anxiety disorder. He had a decent career with the Padres before his trade to the Cardinals. While baseball is a high-pressure sport, there are different kinds and levels of pressure, and baseball players, who approach the game like we approach our jobs or hobbies (or both), react to those levels and types differently.
These are professionals. They are paid to deal with the rigors of 162 games.
I really, really hate the argument of baseball in August being demonstrably different than baseball in April. I think that’s a fan’s creation. We’re talking about whether of not a player swings differently at a fastball in August in that <1 second time span between leaving the pitcher’s hand and the ball reaching the plate. So much of this is reflex that I think (outside of a few cases) this is overblown.
Beware: Velociraptors may be present.
just curious if you read the espn article on david freese when he described in some detail his thought processes in the bottom of the 9th and the bottom of the 11th in game 6
i mean, i think they are clearly different approaches. now, who knows if that’s just after the fact pandering or not.
You teach me baseball and I'll teach you relativity. No, we must not. You will learn about relativity faster than I learn baseball. --Albert Einstein
2011 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!
...
You teach me baseball and I'll teach you relativity. No, we must not. You will learn about relativity faster than I learn baseball. --Albert Einstein
2011 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!
What Freese did there is what players do multiple times in every game.
I don’t think the situation had much to do with it.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Right. This quote seems important (emphasis mine)
“People ask if I was trying to hit a home run, but every time in my life I’ve tried to do that, I’ve grounded out to third,” says Freese. “I was just trying to put the ball in play.”
I don’t see him changing his approach based on the outcome.
Beware: Velociraptors may be present.
i was talking more about how in one AB he's looking for a changeup
in another he’s looking for a fastball. and about how he swung through a fastball that allowed him to adjust his timing. i agree with bgh that batters do this multiple times in a game. but i wonder if freese faces feliz in the 4th inning of a game the cardinals are up 7-0, if he’s going through the same processes. maybe he is. i really don’t know, just posturing.
You teach me baseball and I'll teach you relativity. No, we must not. You will learn about relativity faster than I learn baseball. --Albert Einstein
2011 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!
ok.
I see what you’re saying and that’s certainly possible. I don’t think I can argue that it isn’t.
But I bet he guesses at pitches all the time (/waves at Jim Edmonds) so I would think this is a normal process and we shouldn’t over-emphasize one instance of him guessing right (in spite of the extraordinary results) as indicative of clutchiness or his ability to handle pressure.
Beware: Velociraptors may be present.
yes, i don't think that is indicative of an ability to handle pressure or clutchiness
You teach me baseball and I'll teach you relativity. No, we must not. You will learn about relativity faster than I learn baseball. --Albert Einstein
2011 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!
BS
The swing before the home run he looked like he was trying to hit a ball to Illinois, which he never looks like that. Even in the game thread I commented on that.
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Dec 28, 2011 2:38 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
doesn't necessarily mean it effected his performance
don’t most players say they more often hit homeruns when they are not trying to swing as hard as they possibly can?
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 28, 2011 4:09 PM EST up reply actions
It's really well written but I'm not sure what you're driving at.
Let me ask this question. We know that balls in play contain a certain amount of luck. So Freese’s triple in the ninth was, to some extent, lucky. (You can decide how much or little luck was involved so long as we agree there was some.) Let’s say that Freese got super unlucky on that ball and the fielder actually catches it. It should have dropped, he hit it well but the fielder makes a great game.
Do you think that, given his fielding flub in the 6th, anyone would argue for him being clutch in game 6 after that?
My answer is no despite a torrid offseason. To me, a significant portion of what fans ascribe as clutch is based on results that contain the variable luck. When a binary outcome (out/not out) can change an interpretation so drastically, I question how much of that initial quality (clutchiness) could exist in the first place.
Beware: Velociraptors may be present.
understand i am not defending the concept of clutch
You teach me baseball and I'll teach you relativity. No, we must not. You will learn about relativity faster than I learn baseball. --Albert Einstein
2011 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!
the point of my linking to that story was to refute your thought that most of what a batter does is just reflex.
You teach me baseball and I'll teach you relativity. No, we must not. You will learn about relativity faster than I learn baseball. --Albert Einstein
2011 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!
Most of it IS reflex
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
oh.
Well we’re talking past each other a bit then. To clarify (1) I do think clutch exists both as a descriptive and predictive trait (2) I think the effects of it as predictive trait are incredibly small and negligible for most players.
As far as whether or not that is reflex, I still think it’s mostly reflex and I don’t think that he alters his swing (in a significant way) based on what he thinks the pitch is going to be. To measure that, you’d have to ask a player to guess at a pitch beforehand, tape his swing, and try to identify variances based on when they guess right/wrong for each pitch type.
Beware: Velociraptors may be present.
So what.
I don’t care you really hate the argument. I’ve known professional baseball players in my life, both major league and minor, and yes, it does affect them. Not everybody is a robot.
O wow.
You know ballplayers? I’m suddenly convinced! Great argument.
One thing that I think should be strongly stressed (and which is born out by various studies across various fields) is that just because humans THINK they made a change or PERCEIVE a change in intent/outcome does not mean that change actually exists.
I do not think human interpretation of situations where they asked to reflect are representative of reality. Too much of their interpretation is clouded by the outcome of the event and/or their inability to gauge non-quantifiable events that are separated by time. Recency bias immediately comes to mind as an example why this would be.
Beware: Velociraptors may be present.
i mean, philosophically speaking
if someone thinks they are doing something different, even if they aren’t, isn’t that still a change? i mean, even if the physical outcome is not meaningfully different from a measurable outcome, doesn’t the fact that the person who produces the outcome THINKS he is doing something different enough to actually have an effect?
You teach me baseball and I'll teach you relativity. No, we must not. You will learn about relativity faster than I learn baseball. --Albert Einstein
2011 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!
Philosophically, I've always been disinclined to consider intent
but especially when it is reliant on a single person’s recollection. (I want to avoid law cases where person X tells person Y they are going to commit an act ahead of time. Baseball intent is, I think, always evaluated in a retrospective manner.)
This is the argument that is made with guys like Jack Morris for the hall of fame. “Pitching to the score” and stuff like that. I don’t think baseball cares about what players want to do but rather what they do do. So if intent doesn’t affect outcome, then I’m not sure what it should matter.
I’m open to being persuaded otherwise though.
Beware: Velociraptors may be present.
the idea i am trying to articulate is difficult to describe on the internet
but i will try. and i’m no philosopher, either. but the idea is this: if i always think i’m acting differently to produce a particular outcome, but in reality, i’m not actually making any changes, what would happen if i stopped thinking i was acting differently? in other words, because it seems natural in baseball to have that “intent” you are talking about, we don’t necessarily know what happens if we stop THINKING we are changing something. the thought alone may produce the outcome. would the outcomes start changing if i started to believe that i could not do anything to change them?
god this is a terrible explanation. i should probably just stop here.
You teach me baseball and I'll teach you relativity. No, we must not. You will learn about relativity faster than I learn baseball. --Albert Einstein
2011 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!
This is getting really abstract
Do you disagree with what has been found in the data?
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
She is saying that the data only includes points
where intent exists. So in her hypothetical there is a player somewhere who is actually performing worse because they did not go to the plate with a specific intent in mind.
Beware: Velociraptors may be present.
I understand what you are saying.
And it’s probably completely unverifiable. (I don’t know how you’d collect the “stop thinking things” data.) So I think we’re left with subjective opinions on this.
Beware: Velociraptors may be present.
that's fine with me. i am not interested in persuading anyone on this point
just enjoy the discussion
You teach me baseball and I'll teach you relativity. No, we must not. You will learn about relativity faster than I learn baseball. --Albert Einstein
2011 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!
some things are better left to interpretation
and subjectivity. even in baseball.
You teach me baseball and I'll teach you relativity. No, we must not. You will learn about relativity faster than I learn baseball. --Albert Einstein
2011 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!
right, news flash
players are human
they are the same everyday
not the same in every situation
not the same adrenalin in every situation
clutch to me is those who best shut out the tenseness of the situation, but still utilize their adrenalin to move a little faster, be a little stronger
etc
TLR is gone, long live the king
Not necessarily
It’s one thing to succeed against HS/college/minor league players in some tiny ballpark in some game that no one but the players involved will ever remember, it’s quite another when the cameras are on, in a MLB ballpark, on TV, in front of tens of thousands of people, and in a situation which could possibly get replayed over and over again on nationally televised highlight shows.
Here is a great article on it from BPro.
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Second base….I’ve played second base, how hard can it be? -TLR
Also, Dave Concepcion.
I think what IHB is saying and that I agree with
is not that “clutch” performing, as in certain people rising to the occasion, exists in MLB, but that the opposite occurs. There are just certain people who seem to perform worse than normal when the game is on the line.
There is very, very little evidence to show that this is true
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
well that was my original question
i know there have been studies about whether people are “clutch” performers. curious whether there have been studies about whether people are the opposite.
You teach me baseball and I'll teach you relativity. No, we must not. You will learn about relativity faster than I learn baseball. --Albert Einstein
2011 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!
Yes, lots of people choke (most especially when doing a task that they don't do habitually or professionally). The question is whether there are ML baseball players
who, when faced with particularly pressured-filled circumstances (presumably beyond the normal pressure-filled circumstances that go along with playing ML baseball in front of tens of thousands of people against the best baseball players in the world) regularly “choke” in some way that could be measured (i.e., that it could be differentiated from the norm, where a baseball player is already “failing” at a rate of ~70%).
In sum, I doubt you could reliably identify such a phenomenon, even assuming a population of such players.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Dec 28, 2011 1:36 PM EST up reply actions
Bernard Gilkey is clutch (but maybe not as clutch as Eddie Murray)
http://cyrilmorong.com/FULD.pdf
For discussion purposes….
by Willie McGee's Twin on Dec 28, 2011 1:07 PM EST up reply actions
You know that aliens ruined his batting average, right?
"I actually used about nine pitches--two different fastballs, two sliders, a curve, a changeup, knockdown, brushback, and hit-batsman" - Bob Gibson
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Dec 28, 2011 1:52 PM EST up reply actions
The problem with analyzing "clutch" situations
is that you have to also consider the performance of the pitcher. If clutch really existed, what would happen when a clutch pitcher meets a clutch batter?
I smacked Rickey right in the face when he told me this idea.
i'm not saying i believe in clutchiness
i am simply asking if people have studied the opposite idea
You teach me baseball and I'll teach you relativity. No, we must not. You will learn about relativity faster than I learn baseball. --Albert Einstein
2011 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!
you'd have the same problem, but backwards
what would happen if Theriot faced Franklin? They both suck, but they can’t both suck at the same time. Someone has to “win” that at bat.
I smacked Rickey right in the face when he told me this idea.
"sucking" is not the same as "choking"
You teach me baseball and I'll teach you relativity. No, we must not. You will learn about relativity faster than I learn baseball. --Albert Einstein
2011 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!
ahahaha
"He may have been only .213 but they were the clutchest .213 of all time."
Running list of Molina pick-offs | twit
haha
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 29, 2011 4:10 AM EST up reply actions
WPA would explode from the pressure of the situation?
Johnny Gomes could not be reached for comment
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Dec 28, 2011 1:18 PM EST up reply actions
Another question
Why does a site like FanGraphs provide data like wpa when it is meaningless?
I wanted to play baseball!
-Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 28, 2011 1:23 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
why is it meaningless?
I find it incredibly informative. It tells you what players came through when it matters. A 3-run home run in the fifth inning of a 10-0 win is not as important as a walk of solo shot in a 1-0 game.
That said, I know its not predictive, but it does show you what happened.
I smacked Rickey right in the face when he told me this idea.
That sort of touches upon somethimg ive always thought a little weird
Results based stats do not get used much, even though i think they are nearly as important
I wanted to play baseball!
-Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 28, 2011 1:34 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
It depends on whether your are looking at what has happened or what is likely to happen in the future.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
But projections are based on predictive stats right?
They dint seem to be super accurate… I guess question is, how much more accurate are they
I wanted to play baseball!
-Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 28, 2011 1:49 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
I'd say it's very likely that David Freese's 2012 will be closer to the projections for him than his 2011 postseason line.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
How much more accurate are they compared to what?
ERA is a results based stat. FIP is a predictive stat
FIP is a better predictor of future ERA than ERA
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
So is xFIP (another predictive stat).
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I don't know about meaningless.
I find it kind of interesting as to what situations they put out as being more important to the outcome of a game. It may not tell you very much in the way of which player is better at what. I’d say it’s just the brainchild of somebody having fun with numbers.
Johnny Gomes could not be reached for comment
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Dec 28, 2011 1:37 PM EST up reply actions
Also chalk it up to the randomness of the game
I wanted to play baseball!
-Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 28, 2011 1:47 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
There's a statistical case out there that clutch does exist
and, in my opinion the more important point, can be considered a skill. Generally the effects are small though.
http://www.tangotiger.net/clutch.html
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/clutch_skill_does_exist/
Beware: Velociraptors may be present.
clutch definitely exists
its just impossible to tell with actual data until a players career is like 10 years in.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 28, 2011 4:11 PM EST up reply actions
Buster Olney
STL’s first-half ERA: 3.97. Second-half ERA: 3.44. AW coming back (to what degree, we don’t know), Motte settled. Could be a strong staff.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Could be?
I don’t think Buster put the Cards in his top 10 list. But it sure seems like they should be there with AW, Carp, Garcia as a top 3.
The only way to use KMac correctly out of the pen, is to not summon KMac from the pen.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Dec 28, 2011 1:11 PM EST up reply actions
I'll disagree
In 2008, looking back at the statistics, I would have felt more comfortable with only Springer (against righties) and Chris Perez coming out of the pen. Once they were called up at the very end of the year I’d add Kinney and Motte to that list.
In 2009, he was probably the best option from the right side besides Franklin.
In 2010, you can make an argument for Franklin and a weaker one for Motte – but KMac was probably the best out of the pen.
K-Mac's 2010
K-Mac had a 90% strand rate in 2010. Whenever he came out, I was terrified that, due to his soft-throwing with too many walks, his strand rate would begin its regression to his career average of 75%. It never did in 2010 but he was unable to duplicate it last season and never will again. That’s because it was largely luck and not skill that created his unsustanably low ERA.
Jason Motte was by far the best Cardinals’ reliever in 2010. Boggs was also probably better than McClellan, but it was close.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
shrug
Your appeal to strand rate would be more convincing if someone was appealing solely to K-Mac’s 2.27 ERA. He limited hitters to a 210/277/344 batting line against that season, which is pretty darn good.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Dec 28, 2011 1:59 PM EST up reply actions
...based on a .237 BABIP
Literally nobody is a .237 true talent BABIP pitcher
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
Of course not. . .
and no one is saying that he is (although he has consistently had a better than league-average BABIP). His 7.2 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 were also good.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Dec 28, 2011 2:05 PM EST up reply actions
Not really, for a reliever
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
50/134
“qualifying” MLB relievers in 2010 in K/BB. If by “good” you mean “better-than-average” (which I did), then K-Mac was “good” in 2010. Better than Mitchell Boggs, anyway.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Dec 28, 2011 2:17 PM EST up reply actions
Opponent batters' slash line is directly linked to opponent batters' BABIP
If you point to his slash line and state that K-Mac “limited hitters” to that line, you are implicitly suggesting that it was his skill and not BABIP luck. His strand rate and BABIP regressed toward a more average level (compared to K-Mac’s career and MLB) in 2011. This is what most expected. When this happened, his results were pretty mediocre.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Seriously.
Kmac is a soft-tossing righty who’s relative “success” (if you want to call it that) so far is based almost entirely on a lucky .268 career BABIP against, over a tiny sample of 359 innings. (far lower than Greg Maddux, Roy Halladay, Johan Santana, etc., etc.)
I’m sure he’s a great guy and all that, but he’s about as fungible as you can get for a RH reliever. He better get his K rate back above 7 and his BB rate well below 3, and even then I expect him to be barely servicebale.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Dec 28, 2011 2:15 PM EST up reply actions
FWIW,
K-Mac’s BB rate in 2011 was a career low 2.73, and that as a starter. I agree that to be an effective reliever he needs a K-rate better than 7, which he has done on average in his career when in the bullpen (2008: 7.02, 2009: 6.89, 2010: 7.17). If he does that he will be better than “barely serviceable”.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Dec 28, 2011 2:22 PM EST up reply actions
What?
Jason Motte was by far the best Cardinals’ reliever in 2010. Boggs was also probably better than McClellan, but it was close.
After looking more closely, I’ll give you Motte – but not “by far.” Boggs was a distant third comparing those three.
McClellan had 1.9 bWAR (75 1/3 IP)
Motte had 1.5 bWAR (52 1/3 IP)
Boggs had 0.3 bWAR (67 1/3 IP)
Motte had a 0.6 fWAR
Boggs had a 0.2 fWAR
McClellan had a 0.1 fWAR
McClellan had a 1.075 WHIP
Motte had a 1.127 WHIP
Boggs had a 1.292 WHIP
Motte had a 3.00 K/BB
McClellan had a 2.61 K/BB
Boggs had a 1.93 K/BB
Motte had a 3.29 FIP
Boggs had a 3.88 FIP
McClellan had a 4.07 FIP
Motte had a 3.52 xFIP
McClellan had a 3.77 xFIP
Boggs had a 4.02 xFIP
McClellan had an 89.6% strand rate
Motte had an 88.5% strand rate (nearly as ridiculous!)
Boggs had a 73.8% strand rate
If you’re gonna look at the luck factor (in strand rate and BABIP against) then you also have to look at this:
Motte gave up 7.9% HR/FB
Boggs gave up 8.2% HR/FB
McClellan ave up 11.7% HR/FB
The numbers you listed don't look right.
A spot check has (reliever only) mcclellan at a 5.97 FIP, 4.59 xFIP and his K/BB under 2.
Beware: Velociraptors may be present.
Even his season totals don't match up with what you are typing.
Not sure what is going on.
Beware: Velociraptors may be present.
gob i can't wait to see adam wainwright pitch again
You teach me baseball and I'll teach you relativity. No, we must not. You will learn about relativity faster than I learn baseball. --Albert Einstein
2011 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!
by IHeartBoog on Dec 28, 2011 12:56 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
amen to that
despite the defection of our former 1B, I’m exciting about the coming season. How many days till pitchers and catchers report?
by ArkansasTravs on Dec 28, 2011 12:59 PM EST up reply actions
52 days
You teach me baseball and I'll teach you relativity. No, we must not. You will learn about relativity faster than I learn baseball. --Albert Einstein
2011 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!
they report on feb 18
that is less than two months
You teach me baseball and I'll teach you relativity. No, we must not. You will learn about relativity faster than I learn baseball. --Albert Einstein
2011 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!
I was thinking of opening day
by Cheeseballs on Dec 28, 2011 1:37 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Fixed
despite the
defectiondefecation of our former 1B, I’m exciting about the coming season.
Beer and Baseball. Baseball and Beer. It's not hard to reevaluate your priorities when you only have two.
by PugetSoundCardsAddict on Dec 28, 2011 2:41 PM EST up reply actions
If freese is not clutch and hot streaks are not important
How does one explain his postseason?
I wanted to play baseball!
-Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 28, 2011 1:28 PM EST via Android app reply actions
they happen, but they aren't predictive
Freese was hot and he was clutch, but that doesn’t mean that in the WS in ’12 he will repeat that performance.
#InMyOpinion
I smacked Rickey right in the face when he told me this idea.
For a younger player they should not be written off
Imo (its not as if projections are that accurate)
I wanted to play baseball!
-Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 28, 2011 1:38 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
Why does player age matter?
I mean, it goes into the bucket with everything else when doing season projections. But no matter how old a player is, you can’t use one great postseason to predict future clutchiness.
I think part of what made the post season great
was that we got to see how important Freese and Craig can be. I don’t mean just in game 6, but the whole post season. I am looking forward to a full season of both of them.
I smacked Rickey right in the face when he told me this idea.
Me too
Very exciting time to be a cardinal fan
I wanted to play baseball!
-Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 28, 2011 1:48 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
wait, we just lost pujols.
aren’t we supposed to be sad?
I smacked Rickey right in the face when he told me this idea.
I'm over Pujols
Good for him for getting his 20 yr contract. I hope he never gets to a WS again.
Good for the Cardinals for sticking to their plan and not get into a huge bidding war. I hope we get to and win the WS more than Pujols does in the next ten years.
bollocks
by SecondHalfMatt on Dec 28, 2011 2:20 PM EST up reply actions
I completely agree
I think its funny that I’m still excited about the 2012 Cardinals.
Aw hell, who am I kidding? I’ll always be excited about Cardinal baseball.
I smacked Rickey right in the face when he told me this idea.
Concur with this
I’m not nearly the statistician many are on this site, but I’ve found Mlodinow’s book on randomness, “The Drunkard’s Walk”, very helpful in explaining ‘hot streaks’; try Chapter 9 — Illusions of Patterns and Patterns of Illusion
"You've got to have an attitude if your going to go far in this game." -- Bob Gibson
Awesome. I just found it at our library.
Have you read Freakonomics or Outliers? Is it similar to those at all?
I smacked Rickey right in the face when he told me this idea.
It's not really similar to Freakonomics (except for the whole "fun with numbers" thing)
But it does boil down some of the more useful ideas about stats into consumable, understandable prose. There are plenty of useful tidbits; I enjoyed it a lot.
"You've got to have an attitude if your going to go far in this game." -- Bob Gibson
Freese WAS clutch this past postseason and he DID have a hot streak
Does that mean he will be clutch in the future and will he continue his hot streak in the future?
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
Understanding descriptive versus predictive statements is vital to this comment.
Beware: Velociraptors may be present.
Perhaps we need to look at the context of stat usage more
I wanted to play baseball!
-Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 28, 2011 1:50 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
I think most folks are on firm ground in the context they are looking at Freese's stats.
Freese is not as good as he played during the 2011 postseason. His 2012 stats will more closely resemble his career numbers than his 2011 postseason numbers. But he was great during the 2011 postseason which was a big part of the Cardinals winning the World Series and it was really, really awesome.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Maybe
Freese is not as good as he played during the 2011 postseason. His 2012 stats will more closely resemble his career numbers than his 2011 postseason numbers
But I believe that if he can stay healthy, he’ll see some more of the power he has shown in the minors and in the post season return. So when his BABIP does drop off a bit, the power increase might actually help his overall numbers.
Grit != flat out sucking.
Context
My comment was in reply to the comment on “the context of stat usage.” If we’re attempting to predict Freese’s 2012, I’m more inclined to look at his projections than his 2011 postseason performance. The 18-game postseason run was a beautiful thing to watch but that doesn’t mean I think Freese is going to destroy NL pitching next season.
I hope we see an increase in power and walk rate. I really, really hope this is what we see.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
i mean, no one is "as good" as freese was in the post season
so that’s not a completely fair assessment.
but he was really really good and it was really really awesome.
You teach me baseball and I'll teach you relativity. No, we must not. You will learn about relativity faster than I learn baseball. --Albert Einstein
2011 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!
Freese's postseason hot streak was hugely important.
David Freese will almost certainly not repeat that performance in future postseasons, and in fact is as likely to be awful in future postseasons as he is to be great again.
so its not that clutch doesn't exist
it is that it is not sustainable or predictable
You teach me baseball and I'll teach you relativity. No, we must not. You will learn about relativity faster than I learn baseball. --Albert Einstein
2011 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!
It's that it describes what happened, not that it's a repeatable skill
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
there is a stat
WPA – WPA/LI.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 29, 2011 4:11 AM EST up reply actions
nope
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1177&position=1B#winprobability
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 29, 2011 5:01 AM EST up reply actions
There is even a stat called clutch on fangraphs
I wanted to play baseball!
-Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 29, 2011 1:56 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
Lance Berkman is a nice guy.
The giving back fund s an organization that tracks celebrity charity donations. They released their top 30 celebrity contributions (size, not percentage) on the 19th.
Lance Berkman and his wife came in 7th on the list, with $2,412,245 donated in 2011.
Grit != flat out sucking.
I guess I expected Albert to be on there.
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Second base….I’ve played second base, how hard can it be? -TLR
Also, Dave Concepcion.
I think that list is only for people who use The Giving Back Fund
to manage their philanthropical-ity-ness-ish….stuff.
I smacked Rickey right in the face when he told me this idea.
maybe
But many of Albert’s contributions were in the form of fund raising first. (like his golf tournament). Obviously giving time is very important as well. But harder to put a dollar about on. (then again, Albert Pujols. The again, Albert now makes $2,877.53. So 40 hours worth of his time is about $115,101.29
Albert makes more money than I do. I should have tried to be better at baseball.
Grit != flat out sucking.
On an open market he wouldn't get near that
He just so happens to benefit from working in a protected monopoly and being really good at what he does.
bollocks
by SecondHalfMatt on Dec 28, 2011 2:34 PM EST up reply actions
if this off season has taught us anything is that things are not what they seem especially with athletes
Albert has finally had his true self shown, and it ain’t pretty
Balls
I was number 15 on the list.
bollocks
by SecondHalfMatt on Dec 28, 2011 2:29 PM EST up reply actions
Anybody know the story about Mike Matheny's majestic pants?
I haven’t been around in a while, and this post reminded me of Tyrell Jenkins’ tweet right after Matheny was hired.
@TyrellJenkins14 Mike Matheny gave me his majestic pants! #Rightmanforthejob
I believe Majestic is a brand. He may very well given Tyler his pants.
bollocks
by SecondHalfMatt on Dec 28, 2011 2:22 PM EST up reply actions
The minor leaguers get hand me downs from St. Louis.
They are made from a different material than the typical minor league uniforms and apparently breathe better. If you see a minor leauger on the field with a bunch of rips or patches on their pants you can bet they are clinging to some major league uni that is more comfortable despite it’s well worn condition.
Beware: Velociraptors may be present.
Interesting
I need to see more minor league games. I should be going to Springfield more often seeing as how my cousin lives within walking distance of their stadium.
bollocks
by SecondHalfMatt on Dec 28, 2011 2:35 PM EST up reply actions
I'm shooting for 20 minor league games next year.
I love them. Springfield is awesome.
Beware: Velociraptors may be present.
Who are the players on Springfield's roster to watch this coming season?
bollocks
by SecondHalfMatt on Dec 28, 2011 2:51 PM EST up reply actions
Cox and Wong will probably both be there at some point
Shelby’s probably starting there.
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
Martinez should be there at some point.
Not sure Shelby will repeat (I only count 4 starters in Memphis right now: Additon, Blazek, Ottaivno, Broderick). If Wong isn’t there, Starlin Rodriguez should be and I’ve heard good things about him. Joe Kelly & Jordan Swagerty should be back.
I don’t see Oscar Taveras making the jump to AA in 2012. Trevor Rosenthal is a maybe.
Springfield’s bullpen will probably be a mess again. Cardinals are holding up to a bunch of chaff in AA lately for the pen. Huge weak spot in 2011. No real power arms coming through there next year.
Beware: Velociraptors may be present.
I think Ottavino is going to the pen more permanently.
I guess maybe he tries to make it to the ML pen, but if he fails he goes back to AAA as a starter.
Also, I’m pretty sure Cleto will be starting in Memphis.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Dec 28, 2011 3:41 PM EST up reply actions
Trey Hearne.
Haven’t read that name in forever. And I completely biffed on Cleto. Lynn and Dickson could windup there as well depending on how things play out.
Beware: Velociraptors may be present.
My guess as to the Memphis rotation:
1. Dickson (no room in the ML bullpen – on the Memphis shuttle to serve as an emergency starter for the big club)
2. Miller (won’t be called up before Super 2 cutoff, unless there are major injury issues)
3. Cleto (same as Dickson)
4. Additon (not a loogy – won’t see ML this year, or probaby ever)
5. Blazek/Broderick (who cares. Broderick may be the Memphis longman if Blazek doesn’t go back to SPR)
I think Lynn stays in the ML pen all year. No chance he starts a game or goes back to Memphis, IMO.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Dec 28, 2011 4:55 PM EST up reply actions
Who do you think will be in the St. Louis bullpen on Opening Day with Lynn?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
My guess:
Motte (closer)
Lynn (primary set-up)
Rzep
Salas
K-Mac
Romero (LOOGY)
Boggs
Sanchez will be in Memphis, IMO.
One prediction that I have for next year is that Motte loses the closer role to Lynn.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Dec 28, 2011 5:33 PM EST up reply actions
I hope whomever falters first
out of the final three, will make way for Sanchez pretty quickly – assuming he’s healthy.
Waino is such a goofball.
he provided many laughs during the playoffs as well.
Mike Shannon: "That strikeout was brought to you by...by...well, I don't know what it was brought to you by!"
John Rooney: "It wasn't brought to you by anything Mike."
Maybe this is why they kept Skip around
Someone has to do these crazy handshakes with Waino
bollocks
by SecondHalfMatt on Dec 28, 2011 2:26 PM EST up reply actions
Any chance the 'sabermatricians upstairs'
has a slightly negative connotation? I mean, gathering information sounds like he may actively be seeking it, and that would be great. But what if he’s merely receiving it unsolicited? The phrase does have a distancing effect to it.
Here's an article with a bit more information...
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/mike-matheny-saber-friendly-cardinal/
Honestly, he doesn’t appear to an intuitive understanding of what the data-analysis guys are providing. But it’s tough to tell from a couple of quotes and we don’t know what information he’s being given. At least he appears open to listening to it.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Dec 28, 2011 3:32 PM EST up reply actions
It's pretty obvious..
That Moe is in charge now, Matheny is just his puppet.
On the flip side, I would have more faith in the sabermetricians upstairs if they hadn’t given Skip a 2 year deal.
"Puppet" seems a little over-the-top.
I don’t think Mozeliak is going to be phoning down in-game decisions to Matheny. This sounds more like Joe Maddon’s relationship with the Tampa Bay front office, where they give him some advanced statistics to help him. For example, Tampa Bay uses the speed of the ball off a hitter’s bat against a pitcher as one of the considerations when determining a lineup against a given pitcher.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
That sounds pretty dumb, re: speed of ball
Sample size is still way too small.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 29, 2011 2:58 PM EST up reply actions
I'd suggest it's smarter than going by batting average over eight or twelve PAs like TLR did.
It speaks more to the quality of contact a player makes against a specific pitcher than results-based stats. Also, the Hit F/X data tells us that the faster the speed of the batted ball off the bat, the more likely it is to be a hit.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Yeah, it's definitely more predictive than outcomes
But I still don’t think it tells you anything meaningful, and if your basing decisions off of it in contrast to projections/handednesssplits that’s bad.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 29, 2011 9:47 PM EST up reply actions
is anyone here applying for the mlb fancave?
You teach me baseball and I'll teach you relativity. No, we must not. You will learn about relativity faster than I learn baseball. --Albert Einstein
2011 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!
already did.
Trade Westbrook
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Dec 28, 2011 8:20 PM EST up reply actions
Next thread
The negative waves. Always with the negative waves...
Elation. Sadness. Mayhem. Champagne. Sleepless fury. Never been a night like it. - Joe Posnanski
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