Cardinals Starting Pitching Comparables

by Xeifrank on Dec 27, 2011 8:21 PM EST

Here is a look at some of the top comparables to the Cardinals top starting pitchers: Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Jaime Garcia, Kyle Lohse and Jake Westbrook.

In this exercise I used 2010-2011 data, looking at the skilled stats of K/9, BB/9 and GB/FB, while coming up with a similarity score based on these three stats for each Cardinals starting pitcher. The cutoff was having pitched at least 150 IP as a starter over the last two years. Here is the top 25 list for each Cardinals starter. There is some bias when comparing NL pitchers with AL pitchers due to the slightly inflated strikeout rate for NL pitchers who don't have to pitch to a DH, so feel free to make a mental adjustment for those pitchers. If you wanted to take something like this to the next level, you could look at age, contract status, handedness etc... but I've chosen to look at these three stats which are highly controlled by a pitchers skill level.

Rank	Name	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB	Name	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB
	Adam Wainwright	8.32	2.19	1.68	Chris Carpenter	7.05	2.25	1.59
1	Felix Hernandez	8.45	2.55	1.72	Hiroki Kuroda	7.23	2.19	1.41
2	Cole Hamels	8.62	2.24	1.37	Gavin Floyd	7.15	2.44	1.36
3	CC Sabathia	8.09	2.56	1.51	Brett Myers	6.93	2.53	1.41
4	James Shields	8.21	2.29	1.18	Bartolo Colon	7.18	2.18	1.24
5	Zack Greinke	8.78	2.3	1.37	Joe Blanton	6.97	2.15	1.22
6	Madison Bumgarner	7.9	2.05	1.3	Roy Oswalt	7.34	2.27	1.25
7	Josh Johnson	8.93	2.51	1.39	Philip Humber	6.59	2.16	1.31
8	Josh Beckett	8.17	2.72	1.09	Ricky Nolasco	7.3	1.91	1.22
9	Chris Capuano	7.88	2.61	1.05	Daniel Hudson	7.18	2.18	0.98
10	Jonathon Niese	7.78	2.89	1.65	John Danks	6.97	2.72	1.18
11	Tommy Hanson	8.52	2.76	0.99	Jordan Zimmermann	7.07	1.92	0.99
12	Justin Verlander	8.88	2.42	0.98	Matt Cain	7.2	2.51	0.91
13	David Price	8.44	2.96	1.16	Jeff Niemann	6.79	2.86	1.21
14	Scott Baker	7.99	2.24	0.8	Shaun Marcum	7.34	2.27	0.88
15	Mat Latos	8.88	2.66	1.07	Alexi Ogando	6.68	2.32	0.92
16	Max Scherzer	8.25	2.9	1.02	Jaime Garcia	7.24	2.87	2.03
17	Jered Weaver	8.43	2.15	0.71	Carlos Carrasco	6.54	2.87	1.56
18	Roy Halladay	8.16	1.21	1.7	Jake Peavy	7.59	2.43	0.99
19	Dan Haren	7.76	1.66	1.05	Johnny Cueto	6.37	2.71	1.35
20	Ian Kennedy	7.92	2.7	0.91	Edwin Jackson	7.26	3.09	1.47
21	Anibal Sanchez	8.26	3.08	1.21	Ervin Santana	6.92	2.89	0.98
22	Homer Bailey	7.69	2.73	1.07	Madison Bumgarner	7.9	2.05	1.3
23	Jake Peavy	7.59	2.43	0.99	Ryan Vogelsong	6.99	3.14	1.34
24	Matt Garza	7.77	2.8	1.04	Brett Anderson	6.26	2.16	2.09
25	Colby Lewis	8.19	2.71	0.77	Homer Bailey	7.69	2.73	1.07

	Name	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB	Name	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB
	Jaime Garcia	7.24	2.87	2.03	Kyle Lohse	5.3	2.47	1.13
1	Ricky Romero	7.28	3.35	1.9	Jeremy Guthrie	5.34	2.48	0.99
2	Edwin Jackson	7.26	3.09	1.47	Rodrigo Lopez	5.13	2.5	0.97
3	Justin Masterson	6.72	3.21	2.25	Freddy Garcia	5.47	2.65	0.98
4	Jonathon Niese	7.78	2.89	1.65	Livan Hernandez	4.95	2.56	1.07
5	Brett Myers	6.93	2.53	1.41	Bronson Arroyo	4.97	2.26	0.99
6	Ryan Vogelsong	6.99	3.14	1.34	Zach Duke	5.23	2.66	1.5
7	Chris Carpenter	7.05	2.25	1.59	Tim Wakefield	5.49	2.75	0.82
8	Gavin Floyd	7.15	2.44	1.36	Dallas Braden	5.47	2.05	0.99
9	Carlos Carrasco	6.54	2.87	1.56	Jason Vargas	5.65	2.58	0.8
10	Derek Holland	7.61	3.2	1.3	Joe Saunders	4.81	2.84	1.23
11	John Danks	6.97	2.72	1.18	Jeff Karstens	5.19	1.82	1.22
12	Hiroki Kuroda	7.23	2.19	1.41	Jeff Francis	4.95	1.96	1.38
13	Jeff Niemann	6.79	2.86	1.21	Mike Pelfrey	4.95	3	1.4
14	Roy Oswalt	7.34	2.27	1.25	R.A. Dickey	5.57	2.24	1.74
15	Derek Lowe	6.45	3.1	2.61	Rick Porcello	4.91	2.19	1.65
16	CC Sabathia	8.09	2.56	1.51	Jair Jurrjens	5.9	2.88	1.06
17	Chad Billingsley	7.66	3.63	1.44	Paul Maholm	5.15	2.9	1.72
18	Bartolo Colon	7.18	2.18	1.24	Tommy Hunter	4.69	1.98	1.01
19	Wandy Rodriguez	8.02	3.19	1.39	Brian Duensing	6.06	2.57	1.34
20	Homer Bailey	7.69	2.73	1.07	Chris Volstad	5.79	2.88	1.62
21	Chris Narveson	7.25	3.3	1.05	Brad Bergesen	4.56	2.79	1.2
22	C.J. Wilson	7.92	3.52	1.51	Wade Davis	5.57	3.2	0.87
23	Ervin Santana	6.92	2.89	0.98	Kevin Correia	5.77	3.1	1.41
24	Johnny Cueto	6.37	2.71	1.35	Mike Leake	6.06	2.48	1.52
25	Joe Blanton	6.97	2.15	1.22	Dustin Moseley	4.74	3.05	1.51

	Name	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB
	Jake Westbrook	5.41	3.29	2.35
1	Jason Marquis	5.05	3.16	2.1
2	Ivan Nova	5.45	3.17	1.82
3	Fausto Carmona	5.26	2.98	1.92
4	Trevor Cahill	5.9	3.23	2.07
5	Zach Britton	5.66	3.62	1.86
6	John Lannan	4.86	3.43	2.03
7	Charlie Morton	6.05	3.69	2.43
8	Paul Maholm	5.15	2.9	1.72
9	Tim Hudson	6.02	2.64	2.57
10	Chris Volstad	5.79	2.88	1.62
11	Kevin Correia	5.77	3.1	1.41
12	Jon Garland	5.81	3.79	1.5
13	Tim Stauffer	6.04	2.56	1.89
14	Zach Duke	5.23	2.66	1.5
15	Derek Lowe	6.45	3.1	2.61
16	Mike Pelfrey	4.95	3	1.4
17	Aaron Cook	4.35	3.58	2.32
18	Dustin Moseley	4.74	3.05	1.51
19	Luke Hochevar	6.07	2.96	1.51
20	Matt Harrison	6	2.94	1.44
21	Clayton Richard	6.15	3.46	1.42
22	Jason Hammel	6.05	2.99	1.36
23	R.A. Dickey	5.57	2.24	1.74
24	Mitch Talbot	5	3.91	1.34
25	Clay Buchholz	6.32	3.44	1.5

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Comments

Comps according to Baseball-Reference.com (leaving out players no one has ever heard of)

Wainwright = Tim Lincecum
Carpenter = Dennis Leonard
Garcia = Daniel Hudson
Lohse = Brett Tomko
Westbrook = Bobby Jones

Lineup:
Furcal = Phil Rizzuto (HOF’er)
Jay = Dwight Smith
Beltran = Fred Lynn
Holliday = Chick Hafey (HOF’er)
Berkman = Dick Allen
Freese = Chris Johnson (Current Astros 3B)
Molina = Pat Borders
Schumaker = Steve Ontiveros

Had to use Skip at 2B since no comps yet for Greene or Descalso.

Trade Westbrook

by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Dec 27, 2011 11:27 PM EST reply actions

Molina

I think Molina has had a much better career than Pat Borders.

by Hammer_83 on Dec 30, 2011 2:25 PM EST up reply actions

Interesting comp

Beltran = Fred Lynn

Both lost significant time to injury, both sweet swingers and outstanding fielders.

by gocards62 on Dec 31, 2011 12:21 AM EST up reply actions

I noticed that too

I loved to see Freddie Lynn hit, he indeed had a sweet looking swing. He was one of the few that even looked good striking out.

by ridgesee on Dec 31, 2011 11:08 PM EST up reply actions

I'm really not a fan of Lohse and Westy's most comparables.

I’d really rather not have Jason Marquis and Jeremy Guthrie on this team or anything close to it.

I AM ACTUALLY STLCARDSFAN4 JUST TO CLARIFY YOUR POSSIBLE CONFUSION.

by C@rdball on Dec 28, 2011 10:59 AM EST reply actions

I laughed when I saw the betty comp

paging MooCow

"He may have been only .213 but they were the clutchest .213 of all time."
Running list of Molina pick-offs | twit

by BVHeck on Dec 29, 2011 6:41 PM EST up reply actions

nobody show this to the moocow

he’ll hate westbrook

I wanted to play baseball!
-Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 28, 2011 9:14 PM EST reply actions

Jumping out at me

I’ll say it again – we should re-sign Edwin Jackson.

Reasoning
He is on our #2 and #3 starters’ comp lists.
He is entering his age 28 season.
Since turning 25, he has never had a pitching coach work with him for more than 33 starts in a row.

Once he has stability AND consistency, not to mention a great pitching coach working with him, I think he could take over for Carpenter as a #2 (or #3 if Garcia moves into the #2 role) whenever Carp retires.

by stlfan on Dec 31, 2011 10:26 AM EST reply actions

who would westbrook replace in the bullpen?

I wanted to play baseball!
-Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 1, 2012 4:24 AM EST up reply actions

In my mind, he wouldn't replace anything

in our bullpen. He or Lohse would have to be traded. If not, just let Westy go or see if he’ll accept the Memphis shuttle for the year.

by stlfan on Jan 1, 2012 12:33 PM EST up reply actions

no way. edwin jackson is looking for a 4 or 5 year deal.

we have chris carpenter, adam wainwright, and jaime garcia under contract through the end of 2013. we have a bounty of starting pitching prospects who will be emerging in the next season or two. why would we lock up so much money for so long when we have a good chance of getting very good starting pitching production for league minimum in 2013, 2014, 2015, etc.?

i used to be disgusted, but now i try to be amused . . . - macmanus

by tom s. on Jan 5, 2012 9:51 PM EST up reply actions