FanPost

Cardinals Starting Pitching Comparables

Here is a look at some of the top comparables to the Cardinals top starting pitchers: Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Jaime Garcia, Kyle Lohse and Jake Westbrook.

In this exercise I used 2010-2011 data, looking at the skilled stats of K/9, BB/9 and GB/FB, while coming up with a similarity score based on these three stats for each Cardinals starting pitcher. The cutoff was having pitched at least 150 IP as a starter over the last two years. Here is the top 25 list for each Cardinals starter. There is some bias when comparing NL pitchers with AL pitchers due to the slightly inflated strikeout rate for NL pitchers who don't have to pitch to a DH, so feel free to make a mental adjustment for those pitchers. If you wanted to take something like this to the next level, you could look at age, contract status, handedness etc... but I've chosen to look at these three stats which are highly controlled by a pitchers skill level.

Rank Name K/9 BB/9 GB/FB Name K/9 BB/9 GB/FB
Adam Wainwright 8.32 2.19 1.68 Chris Carpenter 7.05 2.25 1.59
1 Felix Hernandez 8.45 2.55 1.72 Hiroki Kuroda 7.23 2.19 1.41
2 Cole Hamels 8.62 2.24 1.37 Gavin Floyd 7.15 2.44 1.36
3 CC Sabathia 8.09 2.56 1.51 Brett Myers 6.93 2.53 1.41
4 James Shields 8.21 2.29 1.18 Bartolo Colon 7.18 2.18 1.24
5 Zack Greinke 8.78 2.3 1.37 Joe Blanton 6.97 2.15 1.22
6 Madison Bumgarner 7.9 2.05 1.3 Roy Oswalt 7.34 2.27 1.25
7 Josh Johnson 8.93 2.51 1.39 Philip Humber 6.59 2.16 1.31
8 Josh Beckett 8.17 2.72 1.09 Ricky Nolasco 7.3 1.91 1.22
9 Chris Capuano 7.88 2.61 1.05 Daniel Hudson 7.18 2.18 0.98
10 Jonathon Niese 7.78 2.89 1.65 John Danks 6.97 2.72 1.18
11 Tommy Hanson 8.52 2.76 0.99 Jordan Zimmermann 7.07 1.92 0.99
12 Justin Verlander 8.88 2.42 0.98 Matt Cain 7.2 2.51 0.91
13 David Price 8.44 2.96 1.16 Jeff Niemann 6.79 2.86 1.21
14 Scott Baker 7.99 2.24 0.8 Shaun Marcum 7.34 2.27 0.88
15 Mat Latos 8.88 2.66 1.07 Alexi Ogando 6.68 2.32 0.92
16 Max Scherzer 8.25 2.9 1.02 Jaime Garcia 7.24 2.87 2.03
17 Jered Weaver 8.43 2.15 0.71 Carlos Carrasco 6.54 2.87 1.56
18 Roy Halladay 8.16 1.21 1.7 Jake Peavy 7.59 2.43 0.99
19 Dan Haren 7.76 1.66 1.05 Johnny Cueto 6.37 2.71 1.35
20 Ian Kennedy 7.92 2.7 0.91 Edwin Jackson 7.26 3.09 1.47
21 Anibal Sanchez 8.26 3.08 1.21 Ervin Santana 6.92 2.89 0.98
22 Homer Bailey 7.69 2.73 1.07 Madison Bumgarner 7.9 2.05 1.3
23 Jake Peavy 7.59 2.43 0.99 Ryan Vogelsong 6.99 3.14 1.34
24 Matt Garza 7.77 2.8 1.04 Brett Anderson 6.26 2.16 2.09
25 Colby Lewis 8.19 2.71 0.77 Homer Bailey 7.69 2.73 1.07

Name K/9 BB/9 GB/FB Name K/9 BB/9 GB/FB
Jaime Garcia 7.24 2.87 2.03 Kyle Lohse 5.3 2.47 1.13
1 Ricky Romero 7.28 3.35 1.9 Jeremy Guthrie 5.34 2.48 0.99
2 Edwin Jackson 7.26 3.09 1.47 Rodrigo Lopez 5.13 2.5 0.97
3 Justin Masterson 6.72 3.21 2.25 Freddy Garcia 5.47 2.65 0.98
4 Jonathon Niese 7.78 2.89 1.65 Livan Hernandez 4.95 2.56 1.07
5 Brett Myers 6.93 2.53 1.41 Bronson Arroyo 4.97 2.26 0.99
6 Ryan Vogelsong 6.99 3.14 1.34 Zach Duke 5.23 2.66 1.5
7 Chris Carpenter 7.05 2.25 1.59 Tim Wakefield 5.49 2.75 0.82
8 Gavin Floyd 7.15 2.44 1.36 Dallas Braden 5.47 2.05 0.99
9 Carlos Carrasco 6.54 2.87 1.56 Jason Vargas 5.65 2.58 0.8
10 Derek Holland 7.61 3.2 1.3 Joe Saunders 4.81 2.84 1.23
11 John Danks 6.97 2.72 1.18 Jeff Karstens 5.19 1.82 1.22
12 Hiroki Kuroda 7.23 2.19 1.41 Jeff Francis 4.95 1.96 1.38
13 Jeff Niemann 6.79 2.86 1.21 Mike Pelfrey 4.95 3 1.4
14 Roy Oswalt 7.34 2.27 1.25 R.A. Dickey 5.57 2.24 1.74
15 Derek Lowe 6.45 3.1 2.61 Rick Porcello 4.91 2.19 1.65
16 CC Sabathia 8.09 2.56 1.51 Jair Jurrjens 5.9 2.88 1.06
17 Chad Billingsley 7.66 3.63 1.44 Paul Maholm 5.15 2.9 1.72
18 Bartolo Colon 7.18 2.18 1.24 Tommy Hunter 4.69 1.98 1.01
19 Wandy Rodriguez 8.02 3.19 1.39 Brian Duensing 6.06 2.57 1.34
20 Homer Bailey 7.69 2.73 1.07 Chris Volstad 5.79 2.88 1.62
21 Chris Narveson 7.25 3.3 1.05 Brad Bergesen 4.56 2.79 1.2
22 C.J. Wilson 7.92 3.52 1.51 Wade Davis 5.57 3.2 0.87
23 Ervin Santana 6.92 2.89 0.98 Kevin Correia 5.77 3.1 1.41
24 Johnny Cueto 6.37 2.71 1.35 Mike Leake 6.06 2.48 1.52
25 Joe Blanton 6.97 2.15 1.22 Dustin Moseley 4.74 3.05 1.51

Name K/9 BB/9 GB/FB
Jake Westbrook 5.41 3.29 2.35
1 Jason Marquis 5.05 3.16 2.1
2 Ivan Nova 5.45 3.17 1.82
3 Fausto Carmona 5.26 2.98 1.92
4 Trevor Cahill 5.9 3.23 2.07
5 Zach Britton 5.66 3.62 1.86
6 John Lannan 4.86 3.43 2.03
7 Charlie Morton 6.05 3.69 2.43
8 Paul Maholm 5.15 2.9 1.72
9 Tim Hudson 6.02 2.64 2.57
10 Chris Volstad 5.79 2.88 1.62
11 Kevin Correia 5.77 3.1 1.41
12 Jon Garland 5.81 3.79 1.5
13 Tim Stauffer 6.04 2.56 1.89
14 Zach Duke 5.23 2.66 1.5
15 Derek Lowe 6.45 3.1 2.61
16 Mike Pelfrey 4.95 3 1.4
17 Aaron Cook 4.35 3.58 2.32
18 Dustin Moseley 4.74 3.05 1.51
19 Luke Hochevar 6.07 2.96 1.51
20 Matt Harrison 6 2.94 1.44
21 Clayton Richard 6.15 3.46 1.42
22 Jason Hammel 6.05 2.99 1.36
23 R.A. Dickey 5.57 2.24 1.74
24 Mitch Talbot 5 3.91 1.34
25 Clay Buchholz 6.32 3.44 1.5
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