Should the Cardinals make a play for Prado?

by salukihoops on Dec 27, 2011 4:49 PM EST

"The Rockies' interest in Cody Ross is based on whether they trade Seth Smith, writes ESPN's Buster Olney."

Should the Cardinals attempt to help facilitate this trade? The Rockies are looking for big league ready pitching as they look to contend this year in the NL West.

A three way trade could send Kyle McClellan to COL, Seth Smith to ATL, and Martin Prado to STL

All three players are arbitration eligible, and will each earn a fairly similar salary in 2012, while also being under team control in 2013. Seth Smith will be under team control one additional year though 2014.

Kyle McClellan would slide into the back end of the COL rotation.

Atlanta appears to be interested in Seth Smith since they are going to play Prado in Left Field anyway, but Smith projects to have more power with an exploitable platoon split (playing everyday vs RHP).

Bill James projects a .822 OPS for Smith vs .762 OPS for Prado. If Atlanta is going to play Prado in Left Field why not trade for a better hitting Left Fielder in Seth Smith? Of course Prado could spell Chipper Jones at 3B, but he can't play LF/3B at the same time (he is not Mark DeRosa, who could actually play 3 positions at once)

The Cardinals could use Prado for about 140 games at second base, boosting their offensive production at the position, and still find some playing time for Greene and Descalso off the bench.

Remember our hero David Freese has been prone to injury so there may be some available innings at 3B for Descalso. The injury risks also apply to Furcal who may only be good for about 120 games a year at this stage of his career. Tyler Greene could backup SS and get and occasional start at 2B even with Prado in the fold.

An STL bench of Greene, Descalso, Schumaker, Cruz/Anderson, and one of Jay/Craig/Beltran/Berkman on any given day would be one of the best in the NL and a real strength over a 162 game season.

Is this a reasonable trade for Mo to pursue? Would it boost the Cardinals win total in 2012?

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Comments

While I would absolutely love to have Prado at the cost of McClellan

I just don’t see why the Rockies would want Kyle.

I realize that DeLaRosa and Nicasio have injury question marks attached to them, but I can’t help but think that they a fungible depth RHP in the McClellan mold sitting around their system somewhere that they could simply call up from the minors if they had to.

Makin' toast!

DING

Butterin' toast!

by dronemc on Dec 27, 2011 7:54 PM EST reply actions

Depth

Kmac is projected at a 3.71 era over 114ip in 2012. They may have some org depth kmac is more of a known quantity for a team who wants to contend in 2012. This may not be a deal col would do, but I think it’d be worth a shot. When you look at an org with rhp depth the spare I think stl is at the top of the list.

by salukihoops on Dec 27, 2011 9:26 PM EST up reply actions

worthy proposal

Somebody’s going to be really surprised that KMac can start. The arm should be stronger and allow him to be more effective deeper into the season than last year. I don’t know if Colorado works with its rarified air, but somewhere this should happen.

play a hard nine

by hugecardfan on Dec 29, 2011 3:57 PM EST up reply actions

The problem with this is that in order for McClellan to be worth something to a team,

they have to think he is not just going to be the player he is (ie Seth Smith is a corner OF with good power, Prado is a MI with an average bat, Kyle McClellan is a mediocre reliever with a bad fastball) but that he is going to be better than you would expect based on his performance and skills (ie Seth Smith will hit 35 HR, Prado will hit .300 with 20 HR, and McClellan will start throwing 2 MPH harder).

"Congratulations to the Cardinals! Such a fun world series." - Salman Rushdie

by hazel on Dec 29, 2011 9:29 PM EST up reply actions

I would love this.

It makes a good amount of sense to me. I would like to see this happen.

Beltran please

by Kyle1016 on Dec 27, 2011 8:55 PM EST reply actions

needs moar Brian Roberts

I wanted to play baseball!
-Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 27, 2011 10:52 PM EST reply actions

fwiw

I don’t think any MLB team in their right mind would use McClellan as a starting pitcher. that said, stranger things have happened I suppose.

I wanted to play baseball!
-Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 27, 2011 10:54 PM EST reply actions

My only contribution to this idea

K-Mac has about a one to one ground ball to flyable ratio, and that’s been consistent over four years. I would think the Rocks were looking for pitchers that keep it out of the air more.

All that said, Prado would be a pretty good upgrade, albeit a bit expensive.

by JWO on Dec 27, 2011 11:18 PM EST reply actions

GB/FB Ratio does seem like a concern but...

COL just added Kevin Slowey and is currently slotting him at their #3 starter

Slowey only gets about 30% ground balls where K-Mac gets around 50% (as you mentioned)

K-Mac projects to a 3.71 ERA over 114 IP in 2012 where Slowey projects to 4.27 over 97 IP.

by salukihoops on Dec 28, 2011 10:13 AM EST up reply actions

Slowey projects to have a lower FIP, meaning that if they had the same defense and park, Slowey would be projected to have the lower ERA.

"Congratulations to the Cardinals! Such a fun world series." - Salman Rushdie

by hazel on Dec 29, 2011 11:49 AM EST up reply actions

This just doesn't seem realistic due to the gigantic gap in value between McClellan and a good baseball player.

"Congratulations to the Cardinals! Such a fun world series." - Salman Rushdie

by hazel on Dec 27, 2011 11:31 PM EST reply actions

Seems like we could package KMac and Mark Hamilton and send them to the Giants for Matt Cain. I hear they're looking for a 1st baseman.

by Willie McGee's Twin on Dec 28, 2011 12:15 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs

And he bats left-handed!

I hear that’s a requirement for all their 1st basemen interests.

by avs18fan on Dec 30, 2011 6:01 PM EST up reply actions

that's funny

I’m glad this was tongue-in-cheek. You do know how good Cain is?! Carlos Martinez and Matt Adams might get you Matt Cain. Still love Willie McGee though!

by Wileyvet on Jan 3, 2012 1:13 AM EST up reply actions

Can you show me some stats to back up that K-Mac is not a good player?

by salukihoops on Dec 28, 2011 10:15 AM EST up reply actions

How about this stat -

According to fWAR, since 2008 (Kmac’s first year in the majors) Kmac is the fourth worst pitcher in the major leagues of those who have pitched at least 300 innings. The only pitchers worse than Kmac are Oliver Perez, Jeff Suppan, and Miguel Batista. (a holy trinity of awfulness)

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=300&type=8&season=2011&month=0&season1=2008&ind=0&team=0&players=0

The two players above Kmac on this list are Brian Tallet and Todd Wellemeyer. And yes, the number of Cards and ex-Cards present here should be concerning to all of us.

by Willie McGee's Twin on Dec 28, 2011 12:08 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

More importantly,

Seth Smith is a relatively good player. If he was a Cardinal, he would be our fifth best hitter (by wRC+, wOBA, and OPS) behind Holliday, Berkman, Craig, and Beltran, and he is better at defense than any of them except possibly Holliday.

Prado is also a rather good player because he is an average hitter (by wRC+, wOBA, and OPS) and defender (by UZR) at an important position. The only middle infielder that might be more valuable for us than him is Furcal, and Furcal is questionable due to health and age.

Kyle McClellan would be the 16th best pitcher on the Braves current 40 man roster and the 18th best pitcher for the Rockies. That means that while Smith and Prado are both starting players on decent teams, McClellan wouldn’t even be the first pitcher called up from the minors in event of an injury, let alone actually being a starter or important bullpen pitcher.

100% of K-mac’s perceived value is based on unsustainably low ERA’s posted early in his career. This value is a mirage.

"Congratulations to the Cardinals! Such a fun world series." - Salman Rushdie

by hazel on Dec 29, 2011 11:48 AM EST up reply actions

Descalso

I may be the only one who really likes DD but I think he is going to be very good. He seems to do well under pressure. He also got some very big hits and they used him in pressure situations. He has some pop in his bat and he has always hit for a decent average. I really believe that he will be very good there and I think that the Cards think so as well or they would just stay with Schumaker there.

by Warcard on Dec 28, 2011 9:52 AM EST reply actions

Either stay with the roster that we have now or trade

I don’t mind if the cardinals trade for either Martin Prado or Brian Roberts, if not then the cardinals are still division champion favorites.

by stllcat7406 on Dec 28, 2011 12:57 PM EST reply actions

Maybe I'm just being dense

but I don’t really see why everybody pisses their pants over Prado. Bill James has him hitting .289/.339/.423. Sorry if that doesn’t just blow me away. I’m not saying that he’s not a decent player, but he won’t be cheap and I get the feeling that we’re just trading for something that we already have a cheaper version of.

Johnny Gomes could not be reached for comment
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.

by MaytheForschbewithyou on Dec 29, 2011 2:27 AM EST reply actions

I don't think you would disagree, that Prado is likely to be better than our current 2B.

The problem is that Prado costs money and prospects. If he could be had for a throwaway like McClellan, then it might be worth it, but even in that case we are already at the upper limit of our projected payroll.

"Congratulations to the Cardinals! Such a fun world series." - Salman Rushdie

by hazel on Dec 29, 2011 11:52 AM EST up reply actions

I can't disagree with any of those points.

it just seems like his name pops up about twice a week and maybe I’m being too optimistic on Greene, but I don’t think that Prado’s offense is significantly better than what Greene can/could do to overcome the defensive edge that I would give to Greene to be worth the trade. I think that Greene can be better than his projections by a good margin. He just has to go out and do it.

Johnny Gomes could not be reached for comment
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.

by MaytheForschbewithyou on Dec 29, 2011 3:21 PM EST up reply actions

Tyler Greene is on the verge of becoming a superstar.

And then I woke up. Yes, the 28 year old will break through this year and ascend to the great highs you all expect him too…………or not! Get over him people. I don’t think he’ll even be a good bench player. Average defense, weak hitter, but he can steal a base in late inning situations. I’ll take Prado for sure, but it’s unlikely for just McClellan. Maybe a more reasonable pickup would be Alberto Callaspo from the Angels for Mitchell Boggs. They need 5th starter insurance and now have too many infielders if Trumbo is going to play 3rd. Callaspo can play 3b,ss,2b and outfield, plus he can steal bases. He would be an excellent platoon with Descalso if though he switch hits.

by Wileyvet on Jan 3, 2012 1:07 AM EST reply actions