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Cards Starting Pitching

I am still amazed that the Cardinals are World Champions given the ineffectiveness of their starting pitching. Obviously the relief pitchers were great and their effectiveness overshaddowed the ineffectiveness of the starters. In my opinion, Chris Carpenter turned in one of the best Cardinal performances of all time with his terrific game five victory in Philly. He seemed to have to gut it out in the Series and he did just that giving the Cards just enough to put away the Rangers.

I am very hopeful that Wainright and Carpenter will have great years and set the tone for the front of the Cardinal rotation. Maybe Garcia will also show some more maturity and durabilty and be able to get deeper into games. If we are really fortunate maybe Lohose will return to his pre-injury form and be a 15 game winner. Maybe these things will happen, but it seems to me that even the most optimistic fan should be very concerned about the ability of the starters to go deep into games.

If I may play the devil's advocate for a moment and present some what if's from a negative point of view. I certainly think that going deep into the games is going to be the big issue because while it was a great formula for a seven game series, it will be a disaster over a 162 game schedule. So I am going to throw out the negative possibilty of why this is possible and I hope that some of you great Cardinal fans can respond with some positives that will make me feel a lot better. I ,like many Cardinal fans, am very excited about the everyday line-up and I believe that this team is going to be very good if the starting pitching holds up.

Getting Wainright back is very exciting and the fact that many pitchers who have had similar surgeries are stronger than prior to the surgery is also so very encouraging. I hope this is the case with Wainright but I think it would be wise to remember that he is coming back from serious surgery and expecting him to immediately head up the rotation and go deep into games might be stretching it a little bit. Seems to me that it would be better to count on him for a middle of the order performance and if you get more then that would just be great.

Carpenter was simply great in the post season this past year. It seems like it took him forever to win a game in the regular season and then he pitched with some bad luck and should have had more wins than what he actually got. Once they got to the playoffs he really provided the leadership and without his great game five performance against Philly then the season would have ended that night. Carpenter gives me great hope that he can have another solid year and avoid the injury bug that plagued him early in his career. He is getting on up there in age and one has to wonder if he will decline any in the coming season. I hope he is able to give us another good year, but if the decline does happen then I fear that the number of innings that he is able to pitch is where it will rear its ugly head.

Garcia was very good but faded down the stretch and could not get deep in most of the post season games. Maybe he is maturing and just maybe he can get deeper into games and maybe he can now be counted on to be a durable pitcher in the final couple of months. Of course there is also the possibility that he just cannot develop this stamina and that he is that five or six inning pitcher. I certainly hope that his durability and stamina improve but getting deep into the games and having something left in the tank at the end has to be a concern.

The durability and stamina concerns of the top three starters is probably further complicated by the lack of stamina and durability of both Lohose and Westbrook. I know both have been durable pitchers in the past and maybe they will return to form in the coming season, but odds are that they will both be hard pressed to give more than five or six quality innings. I think this puts so much pressure on the front of the pitching staff to go deep into games, and as alluded to previously, that is the one issue that is most concerning.

Edwin Jackson was not very good for the Cards during the post season, but he was really durable and effective after they acquired him in the trade. It is my opinion, that he is absolutely perfect for the Cardinal rotation going forward because he provides that stamina and durability that is such a concern.

I know that the Cards have a lot of money tied up in Lohose and Westbrook and that each have a NTC, and I also know that Lynn and McClellan give us some starting pitching depth, but I really would like this starting staff a lot better if Jackson was a starter and Westbrook was the long man in the pen. Lynn might could be really effective starting but he is also very effective out of the pen and once again how long could he last as a starter?

I am really hoping that the Cards can find a way to shed some salary in some type of trade that would allow them to try to sign Edwin Jackson. Many have advocated Oswalt but once again he is injury prone and might not be able to give you those innings that this staff may really need someone to deliver. Jackson might not get you as many wins as Oswalt but I would bet money that he will get you innings.

Maybe this team is set just the way it is, but just maybe there is another upgrade in mind. I find it hard to believe that the recent memories of the World Series would not inspire the Cardinal brass to try to add some pitching durability and depth either by a free agent signing or via a trade. It seems that everything else is pretty well covered and maybe starting pitching durability will not be a problem, but why take the risk when there are options out there.

It is not my money and it is easy for me to spend someone else's money, but they have about 110 million invested and I believe that it is prudent to protect that investment by strengthing the starting staff.

It does not appear that Edwin Jackson has had a lot of interest so I am hopeful that he could be had for a very reasonable contact. I think he would be a very good insurance policy and well worth the investment.

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Is "Lohose" a meme?

‘Cause I’m not familiar with it.

"I actually used about nine pitches--two different fastballs, two sliders, a curve, a changeup, knockdown, brushback, and hit-batsman" - Bob Gibson

by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Dec 24, 2011 9:30 PM EST reply actions  

Yeah that was weird

*Lohse

I wanted to play baseball!
-Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 25, 2011 11:48 AM EST via Android app up reply actions  

I too am a little concerned about the starters and total innings

If we were in another division id be surprised if they make the playoffs. since the bullpen will be used more (probably), im kind of hating on the kmcc and jc signings… bad moves

I wanted to play baseball!
-Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 25, 2011 11:51 AM EST via Android app up reply actions  

jackson will never be affordable

i think he would be a great fit as well —let’s hope he has no suitors and has to sign for a year. I’d definitely throw some money at him for a one year contract.

Just win

by The Duke on Dec 24, 2011 9:51 PM EST reply actions  

I wonder what Billy Beane would want for Brett Anderson

He’s due back from TJ in midsummer, which likely means he could be a help by playoff time and then add to our depth from 2013 – 2015. He’s due $1M next year, $3M in 2013, and then has club options ($1.5M buyout) for 2014 and 2015 for much higher salary.

I realize the OP is mainly about 2012, but I just found myself thinking about Beane’s fire sale and realizing how team-friendly Anderson’s contract is, even as his trade value has probably dropped quite a bit.

by siddfynch on Dec 25, 2011 12:30 PM EST reply actions  

One guy's take

I feel like at this time of year, existing question marks about the rotation are about 50% likely to manifest next year. Just a spitballing estimate there. Whatever the rate, the Cards seem to have a fairly number of questions right now, some of which will surely surface and thus be nice to buffer for. Will Carp start needing to be protected a little more? When will Wagonmaker really return, and how long will it take for him to be effective? And will the glasses on Lohse and Westbrook be 1/4 full or 3/4 empty? And who will get injured out of the blue?

I’d love to see the Cards go after one solid, 4th starter type as a preventive measure; would help buffer against injury or (un)expected craptitude from someone, while lessening the reliance on a Waino or Carp to take up the slack (we love those guys because they will never refuse an assignment, but face it, they need some protection next year). I also don’t think this precludes trying Lynn or Cleto as a starter also (the first two on the AAA conveyor belt). The situation with Rzepeczinski is unfortunate – he valuable as an SP, but would be best converted during the offseason, obviously, which is hard to justify while there is no hole on paper and no track record to think he’d be successful enough to bump Lohse or Westy. Ughhh.

So with that, I’d love to see them go after either of two groups of players: healthy FAs reasonably projected to make 30 starts as a 4th starter this year, OR guys who are talented question marks, signed to incentive laden deals.

solid 4th starter types who might be too expensive (but might not)
Javier Vazquez – 32 GS with a 3.9 xFIP last year. But can we lure him away from the East Coast? Perhaps Yadi’s PR connection would help?

Hiroki Kuroda – 32 GS with a 3.6 xFIP last year. But can we lure him away from the West Coast?

Roy Oswalt – 23 GS last year (plus 3 in MiLB rehab), with a 4.0 xFIP last year. He closed out 2011 healthy, going 6 to 7 innings each start (though knocked around sometimes).

Edwin Jackson – 30+ GS the last five seasons, with a 3.7 xFIP each of the last 2. He’d be an upgrade for sure (and still has further upside), but will he be affordable? And would we be better taking the pick for him and trying to get one of Vazquez, Kuroda, or Oswalt on a cheaper (shorter) contract? I kind of think so.

Joe Saunders – 33 GS last year, with a 4.4 xFIP. I can him being largely redundant with Westy/Lohse, so unlikely to be worth what he’d cost.

Guys to sign to cheap, incentive-laden contracts (the Chris Carpenter / Wade Miller crapshoot)

Rich Harden. Yes, I said it. The thing about Harden is that when he’s out, he’s out for blocks of time. When he’s in, you may catch lightning in a bottle. And if we have no roster opening (a pleasant problem), he’d be lights out as a swingman. I say sign him to a $1.M contract (he made $1.5M in 2011), with incentives for both innings and appearances.

Kevin Millwood. looked good at the end of 2011 for CO. Will he come cheap? And be content to share time until someone else breaks?

I can’t really think of any other incentive type guy who has good upside and a shot at being healthy this year. Feels like there must be more out there though.

Other pitchers who might be worth pursuing? I ignored EJax

by siddfynch on Dec 25, 2011 1:43 PM EST reply actions  

You ignored EJax?

then what do you call this?

Edwin Jackson – 30+ GS the last five seasons, with a 3.7 xFIP each of the last 2. He’d be an upgrade for sure (and still has further upside), but will he be affordable? And would we be better taking the pick for him and trying to get one of Vazquez, Kuroda, or Oswalt on a cheaper (shorter) contract? I kind of think so.

"I actually used about nine pitches--two different fastballs, two sliders, a curve, a changeup, knockdown, brushback, and hit-batsman" - Bob Gibson

by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Dec 25, 2011 8:49 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, I meant to exclude him, but then realized how nicely he stacks up to the rest of the first group

Too nicely, though, in the sense that he’d probably want a lengthy commitment that it sounds like is out of our range right now.

by siddfynch on Dec 26, 2011 1:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Edwin Jackson has been very effective for three full seasons.

Yet, for some reason, he has played on five teams during those three seasons. He has been worth over 10 WAR over that timespan, too. It’s really bizarre.

"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."

--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

by bgh on Dec 25, 2011 4:47 PM EST reply actions  

I think its because he takes 40 seconds between each pitch

Teams grow tired of him quickly.

Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.

by vivaelpujols on Dec 25, 2011 9:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Jaime's 'durabilty'

is not really a provable concern. It was more LaRussa jerking him out of games (not suggesting undeservedly so). Garcia tending to get the ball up in the strike zone more from the 4th or 5th inning on is probably not a durability issue. What it is, I don’t know.
Similar could be said of Westbrook. He had a number of games where he sailed through the order the first time around and then had an inning where he imploded. Also probably not a question of being in shape.
Whatever the reasons, there is concern on the horizon, yes.

by the Tewk on Dec 26, 2011 1:40 AM EST reply actions  

Kyle Lohse was fine for a #4 starter last year

We can complain about his contract all we want, but that’s a sunk cost, and if Carp and Wainwright are back, and Garcia doesn’t have some huge regression, I don’t see what your issue with Lohse is. Especially when you’re complaining about him not being a 15 win pitcher when he’s coming off of a 14 win season (not that I’m advocating evaluating pitchers based on wins).

They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...

by Valatan on Dec 26, 2011 11:56 AM EST reply actions  

Lohse

What worries me about Lohse is that 2011 was so much better than 2010 and 2009. Granted, I’d rather his best season be the one just past, but I worry that his 2012 is due for some regression unless there were some explanations for 2011 that can reasonably be carried forward. New pitches, or just healthier?

Keep in mind, 2011 was his lowest xFIP ever, even if just by a bit.

by siddfynch on Dec 26, 2011 2:02 PM EST up reply actions  

Sure

But the OPs assertion that if we get 2011 Lohse again we have some sort of problem is ridiculous. If we get three year averages from carp, waino and garcia, and 2011 Lohse from Lohse, we’ve got one of the best rotations in baseball.

They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...

by Valatan on Dec 27, 2011 9:56 AM EST up reply actions  

Lohse was injured in 2009 and 2010 - that's the explanation.

His 2011 wasn’t materially different than his 2008, his last healthy year.

by Willie McGee's Twin on Dec 29, 2011 11:13 AM EST up reply actions  

I don't understand, going deep into games was a non-concern in the regular season
If I may play the devil’s advocate for a moment and present some what if’s from a negative point of view. I certainly think that going deep into the games is going to be the big issue because while it was a great formula for a seven game series, it will be a disaster over a 162 game schedule.

Why is it all of a sudden a concern just because Tony decided to take out every starter at a moment’s notice?

I AM ACTUALLY STLCARDSFAN4 JUST TO CLARIFY YOUR POSSIBLE CONFUSION.

by C@rdball on Dec 27, 2011 12:31 PM EST reply actions  

Going Deep In Series

The going deep question did not rear its ugly head until the WS. It was present all year long but the LaRussa rope was just much longer during the regular season. I guess that maybe the quick hook during the series made it seem like a larger problem than maybe it really is, but it was very disappointing that everyone not named Carpenter could not seem to get past the fifth inning. Maybe the problem was there all year long and it took the pressure of the WS to bring it front and center. It just seems to me that it is a huge potential weakness that should be addressed if at all possible.

by Warcard on Dec 28, 2011 9:34 AM EST reply actions  

Also remember

We were playing one of the most potent lineups in the majors in the WS.

Older than any three of you.

by Remember Kenny B on Dec 28, 2011 10:11 AM EST up reply actions  

Also, it was the end of the season

and we had a good bullpen. Tax those arms!

They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...

by Valatan on Dec 28, 2011 7:31 PM EST up reply actions  

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