FanPost

Projections... How Accurate?

The last two seasons I did some statistical projection averaging (mixing each type of projection together, to find what the average projection of a player was; including Bill James, Marcel, RotoChamp, and Fans systems). Here are the projections, with an update; that is what really happened.

St. Louis Cardinals proj wOBA: RotoChamp | Bill James | Marcel | Fans| Projection Ave | fWAR | actual

  • 1B Albert Pujols .449 | .452 | .414 | .434 | .437 | 7.5 | 5.1 @.385 (Marcel closest)
  • 2B Skip Schumaker .336 | .321 | .318 | .315 | .323 | .6 | .6 @.300 (Fans)
  • SS Ryan Theriot .310 | .313 | .304 | .300 | .307 | 1.1 | .7 @.292 (Fans)
  • 3B David Freese .319 | .353 | .334 | .341 | .337 | 2.5 | 2.7 @.348 (Bill James)
  • C Yadier Molina .331 | .311 | .317 | .319 | .320 | 3.2 | 4.1 @.349 (RotoChamp)
  • RF Lance Berkman .380 | .376 | .360 | .367 | .371 | 2.3 | 5.0 @.402 (RotoChamp)
  • CF Colby Rasmus .344 | .354 | .343 | .361 | .351 | 4.1 | .8 @.302 (Marcel)
  • LF Matt Holliday .401 | .399 | .382 | .395 | .394 | 5.6 | 5.0 @.393 (Ave Proj/Fans)

Cardinals starting rotation FIP projections: RotoChamp | Bill James | Marcel | Fans| Proj Ave | fWAR | actual

  • Chris Carpenter 3.48 | 3.27 | 3.50 | 3.59 | 3.46 | 4.1 | 5 @3.06 FIP (Bill James)
  • Jake Westbrook 4.23 | 4.15 | 4.14 | 4.14 | 4.17 | 2.8 | 1.1 @4.25 (RotoChamp)
  • Jaime Garcia 3.44 | 3.87 | 3.57 | 3.93 | 3.70 | 3.1 | 3.6 @3.23 (RotoChamp)
  • Kyle Lohse 4.36 | 4.36 | 4.14 | 4.36 | 4.31 | 1.8 | 2.5 @3.67 (Marcel)
  • Kyle McClellan 4.09 | 3.80 | 3.96 | 4.05 | 3.98 | 1.4 | -.6 @4.92 (RotoChamp)
For projecting the Cardinals, RotoChamp is the champ. It was particularly adept at projecting pitching. Fans projection system knew the hitters best. Speaking of fangraphs, its WAR projections were pretty hit and miss. Skip, Freese, Holliday, and Garcia were predicted pretty well. Carp was greater than expectations, as was Lohse & Berkman. Holliday almost exactly match the averaged projection in wOBA. No one saw the precipitous drop in production from Pujols and Rasmus. RotoChamp was not fooled by Westbrook last season. More on the other teams...

Cincinnati Reds projected wOBA: RotoChamp | Bill James | Marcel | Fans| Proj Ave | fWAR | actual

  • 1B Joey Votto .418 | .426 | .401 | .420 | .416 | 6.5 | 6.9 @.403 (Marcel)
  • 2B Brandon Phillips .340 | .327 | .327 | .332 | .332 | 3.4 | 6 @.351 (RotoChamp)
  • SS Edgar Renteria .311 | .317 | .296 | .296 | .305 | .5 | .9 @.291 (Marcel/Fans)
  • 3B Scott Rolen .366 | .352 | .342 | .347 | .352 | 3.5 | 1.3 @.294 (Marcel)
  • C Ryan Hanigan .370 | .337 | .329 | .341 | .344 | 2.5 | 1.8 @.320 (Marcel)
  • RF Jay Bruce .349 | .375 | .350 | .369 | .361 | 4.7 | 3.3 @.346 (Marcel)
  • CF Drew Stubbs .341 | .346 | .342 | .345 | .344 | 3.8 | 2.6 @.314 (RotoChamp)
  • LF Johnny Gomes .343 | .345 | .332 | .327 | .337 | 0 | 1.5 @.319 (Fans)

Reds starting rotation FIP projections: RotoChamp | Bill James | Marcel | Fans| Proj Ave | fWAR | actual

  • Bronson Arroyo 4.66 | 4.50 | 4.52 | 4.69 | 4.60 | 1.9 | -1.3 @5.71 (Fans)
  • Johnny Cueto 4.21 | 4.31 | 4.04 | 4.14 | 4.18 | 3 | 2.8 @3.45 (Marcel)
  • Edinson Volquez 4.04 | 4.09 | 3.88 | 3.99 | 4.00 | 2.6 | -.3 @5.29 (James)
  • Travis Wood 3.44 | 3.78 | 3.54 | 3.60 | 3.59 | 3.6 | 1.1 @4.06 (James)
  • Homer Bailey 4.10 | 4.22 | 3.92 | 3.92 | 4.04 | 2.9 | 1.5@4.06 (RotoChamp)

Marcel predicted the Reds hitting quite well. James wasn't the closest on any of the Reds hitting, however. One thing I noticed about the Reds pitching, is that that ballpark is hurting them a lot. Cueto seemed to figure out how to work around it quite well, though. -1.6 WAR from two of your best 3 starters is some EPIC FAIL. Especially when they were projected to be at 4.5; over 6 WAR lost lol. Only Phillips and Votto fulfilled or exceeded expectations.

Milwaukee Brewers projected wOBA: RotoChamp | Bill James | Marcel | Fans| Projection Ave | fWAR

  • 1B Prince Fielder .399 |.401 | .383 | .408 | .398 | 5 | 5.5 @.408 (Marcel)
  • 2B Rickie Weeks .360 | .348 | .349 | .366 | .356 | 4.6 | 3.7 @.358 (RotoChamp)
  • SS Yuniesky Betancourt .308 | .290 | .291 | .289 | .295 | -0.5 | .5 @.278 (Fans)
  • 3B Casey McGehee .350| .346 | .343 | .336 | .344 | 2.3 | .3 @.272 (Fans)
  • C Jonathan Lucroy .302 | .310 | .311 | .317 | .310 | 2.2 | 1.9 @.310 (Proj Ave/James)
  • RF Corey Hart .356 | .352 | .339 | .344 | .348 | 1.5 | 4.2 @.373 (RotoChamp)
  • CF Carlos Gomez .293 | .303 | .301 | .292 | .297 | 1 | 2 @.307 (James)
  • LF Ryan Braun .388 | .398 | .378 | .397 | .390 | 4.7 | 7.8 @.433 (James)

Brewers starting rotation FIP projections: RotoChamp | Bill James | Marcel | Fans| Proj Ave | fWAR | actual

  • Zach Greinke 3.10 | 3.31 | 3.15 | 3.07 | 3.16 | 6.3 | 3.9 @2.98 (Fans)
  • Yovani Gallardo 3.29 | 3.34 | 3.39 | 3.40 | 3.36 | 4.9 | 3.1 @3.59 (Marcel)
  • Randy Wolf 4.51 | 4.43 | 4.30 | 4.45 | 4.43 | 2.4 | 1.4 @4.29 (Marcel)
  • Shawn Marcum 3.87 | 4.25 | 3.94 | 3.81 | 3.97 | 3.7 | 2.7 @3.73 (Fans)
  • Chris Narveson 4.19 | 4.49 | 4.10 | 4.18 | 4.24 | 2.4 | 1.5 @4.06 (Marcel)

Huh, Braun really outperformed that projection. Also, their starting rotation wasn't quite as impressive as projected in WAR. Wolf and Marcum were better in FIP, but it seems the WAR was not as much as expected. Probably because the Milwaukee bullpen was so good this year, they did not need to leave them in the game as long. Overall, Marcel looks to be a pretty good system.

Although this study isn't very scientific, it proves to some extent a couple things: RotoChamp is pretty decent, and Marcel is the other system I'd look at. Fans ain't too shabby either, but Bill James projections would seem to be the least accurate; although sometimes they worked quite well. My averaging of the systems proved to be more of a novelty and/or for fun... seems that it's kind of a waste of time, but it was fun to see what the general consensus was at the time; and it still proves slightly useful to see what expectations overall were, when going by statistical projections. No system is perfect or even super close, but it's good to know which ones are a little more accurate.

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