Draft Concern...

by Jumsy on Dec 14, 2011 4:18 PM EST

As everyone knows, the Cardinals traded Colby Rasmus for a couple of players who will be free agents and likely generate draft pick compensation (Edwin Jackson and Octavio Dotel). They also had possible Free Agents who would also generate more draft picks in Albert Pujols and Lance Berkman. Mo was able to bring Berkman back, but now the team is looking at 4 draft picks due to compensation, the 1st and 2nd round picks we already have, as well as a possible extra pick somewhere at the end of the first or second round due to the small market/lousy team lottery. That is 7 total picks available next June in the first 2.5 rounds.

With the recent drafts the Cardinals have had, I would consider this to be a great opportunity to really put the farm system over the top, however, with Jeff Luhnow calling the shots in Houston, will the Cardinals be able to continue their excellent drafts? Part of the success of recent drafts was the Cardinals ability to spend money on tougher signs and get greater value from the back end of the draft (Shelby Miller). With the new slotting system, this doesn't seem feasible. Does the front office still have people in place to make the draft day decisions to be successful? Will the extra picks enable the Cardinals to find the talent equivalent to Colby Rasmus (can't say Pujols because that is too big of an expectation)? Does the new draft setup force teams to be that much better at drafting the best players available? Every year you see teams draft duds and take chances on players who could be the next superstar but never quite put it together. Is luck going to count more than ever now?

All of these things are concerns I have going forward without Jeff Luhnow. Am I giving Luhnow too much credit for turning the farm system around, or will the pipeline of talent continue to produce without him?

I don't have the answers to this, but is this a valid concern? I know there is not a lot of player analysis here, but I hope there will be some good discussion on the topic(s).

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Comments

In basic

terms, teams will be unable to just throw money at a draft board anymore and so scouting will be even more important.

If the Cardinals scout well, and the seemingly have recently, they will continue to draft well. Remember, drafting is only a part of the equation. Development is probably more important, especially for high school guys.

Speaking of high school guys, significantly less will sign, meaning college talent will eventually get better. From that, I believe the draft will be weird in the next few years.

Buried Treasure - #19 Pirates Prospect - Zach Von Rosenberg
Buried Treasure - Reaction: Veras for McGehee
Shenanigans

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 14, 2011 5:51 PM EST reply actions

Good point about the college crop getting better.

How do you think the idea that great HS players will now probably go to college affects the quality/quantity of team controlled players? More great players spend their peak with the drafting team?

by Jon S. on Dec 14, 2011 6:16 PM EST up reply actions

Hmm

never really thought of that. I don’t think it will have that much effect. Presumably a great HS player will make the majors quickly, still take a few years to “peak” and then be with that team for ~6 teams. If anything, it actually will mean you will see players hitting free agency later than in the past (in terms of age). Basically it may end up being rarer to see a guy like Prince Fielder, an elite player hit free agency at age 28.

I still think the elite HS players will get drafted and get paid. Your Starling, Lindor, Baez, and Norris type guys. Josh Bell will go to college unless he is drafted in the top 10. The guys who will go to college en masse instead of going pro will be the guys who used to get high 6 figure – low 7 figure bonuses, such as Matt Dean, Clay Holmes, Zach Von Rosenberg (look at my sig for an example) and Charles Tilson (I know less about him, but I believe he fits that mold). Tilson still might sign since he was drafted in the 2nd round, but the other 3 guys I named were all drafted in the 6th round or later.

I also think rounds 3-10 are going to be very, very college heavy, as most HS players worthy to be drafted in those rounds will expect more money. You will also won’t see any “back-up plan” picks because of the rule where alotment money is forfeited if the player doesn’t sign.

Buried Treasure - #19 Pirates Prospect - Zach Von Rosenberg
Buried Treasure - Reaction: Veras for McGehee
Shenanigans

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 14, 2011 6:34 PM EST up reply actions

I hope

this isn’t frowned upon, but I plan on writing a very in-depth article about the draft, its effects, and possible strategies for “exploiting” it in the future. I’ll be putting it on my blog and can check back later when I have it up if people would like to read it.

FWIW, I’m not an expert per se, but I love the draft and have followed it very carefully the last two years and have read exhaustively about the new CBA. Plus it’s Christmas break so I have plenty of time!

Buried Treasure - #19 Pirates Prospect - Zach Von Rosenberg
Buried Treasure - Reaction: Veras for McGehee
Shenanigans

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 14, 2011 6:36 PM EST up reply actions