Separation Anxiety
The full details of the Skip Schumaker signing put me in a bit of an awkward situation. Initially, upon hearing the Cardinals actually went out and resigned Skip to a two-year deal, my reaction was decidedly negative. I wrote yesterday about the prospect of watching Schumaker play another two seasons in a Cardinal uniform, a column which netted me one very angry -- though quite polite -- email from a reader and one thumbs up from my editor.
Now, though, after finding out the particulars of the deal, that Skip will only be making $1.5 million per season, I feel as if my vitriol has really lost some of its potency. After all, the Cardinals are essentially paying Schumaker the market rate for around one-third of a win, and utilised properly I feel fairly confident Skip should be able to manage that. As terrible as he was in 2011, he was still worth twice that, coming in at 0.6 WAR largely while playing a position he should never, ever play. Ever.
So how does one go about faulting the organisation for a signing with so little downside? Schumaker is certainly no great shakes at, well, much of anything on the field, but the level of crapitude one has to sink to in order to fail to reach 0.3 wins is honestly a little tough to fathom. So yes, I will hate watching Skip Schumaker ground out to second base 250 times next year, but at such a modest salary it isn't as if he will be killing the team. Hence my confusion.
I'm certainly not the sort of person who needs everything to be split into good and evil. Not everything is black and white, this or that, great taste or less filling. But I do in general at least like to know how I feel about an issue, and I'm just getting too many mixed signals from myself right now.
But then again, the objections to having Schumaker around aren't really about the money, are they? I mean, they sort of are, in the sense he's exactly the sort of player you should be able to replace pretty much for free, ergo paying him for said production feels like a needless expenditure. But at the very highest end of things, Skip Schumaker is not the sort of player who is going to break the bank.
There are still two problems with keeping a guy like Skip around, though. The first is our old friend opportunity cost. As inoffensive as Skip Schumaker may be at a bare million and a half salary, and as unlikely as he is to underperform that figure, there's also not much in the way of upside above that. Sure, in all likelihood you'll get at least that third of a win from Skip you're paying him to produce. Honestly, though, do you really think there's much of a chance he does much better? That's the problem with keeping Skip Schumaker -- well, one of the two, anyway -- around as a sort of baseline player: you can't really do any better so long as he's taking up that roster spot.
The other issue with paying Skip is, um, the money. I know, I know. I said just a second ago it wasn't really about the money. But, well, yeah.
That million and a half being paid to Schumaker doesn't seem like much, really, until you figure in he's not the only fringe player the Cardinals will be paying a pittance to play like they're making a pittance. Take, for instance, Kyle McClellan, the other returning member of the 2011 team I was desperately hoping we had seen the last of. I'm sure someone is going to say, "But Aaron, Kyle McClellan isn't going to be the closer or anything! He's got his uses, and as long as he's the last guy out of the 'pen I can totally live with him. You could do a whole lot worse."
Leaving aside for a moment whether or not you really could do a whole lot worse, does anyone here think the Cardinals couldn't replace McClellan's performance with one of the myriad other right-handed relievers they have? Because I have to say, I'm willing to lay a fairly large chunk of money on the line that Eduardo Sanchez or Lance Lynn could outpitch K-Mac pretty handily in 2012. Now if the club wants Lynn to start in the minors rather than relieve in the majors, I can understand that train of thought somewhat. Even so, it isn't as if the Cards lack options to the point of needing McClellan around.
So take that $1.5 mil you're paying Schumaker and add whatever Kyle McClellan will get in arbitration. (He made $1.375 last season, and will actually get a raise on that, one would have to think, after making however many starts it was.) I'll just pull a number out of my ass and say he gets $1.7ish million. That $3.2 million would probably come pretty close to getting you someone who's actually good, like, say, Mike Gonzalez. Despite a rather nasty case of homeritis last season, Gonzalez has been one of the better left-handed relievers in the game over the past handful of seasons. His most recent contract, a two-year deal with the Baltimore Orioles, paid him $6 million total for those two seasons.
I guess what I'm trying to say is I still hate seeing Skip Schumaker coming back to the Cards, even though the salary he'll be paid is so low as to make it close to a lock he'll offer at least that much value. There's just no creativity to bringing back Skip. No imagination. Replace him with Tyler Greene or Adron Chambers, replace Kyle McClellan with Eduardo Sanchez, and you've got most of the cost of a quality player in hand, all while substantially increasing your possible upside without risking much more of a downside.
Keeping guys like Schumaker and McClellan on the payroll feels like an attempt to hold together what was a very successful team without properly crediting what ultimately did and did not make that team successful. The man who produced $35 million worth of value per season while being paid less than half that is gone. The Cardinals, if they want to stay competitive and move into the post-Albert world continuing to win, are going to need to be far more efficient with their roster than they have been in the past. There are far more efficient ways to use these two roster spots than Skip Schumaker and Kyle McClellan. But here we are, team holding on to players who do not contribute in a meaningful way, without any good apparent reason.
Maybe they're afraid of the downside. The total collapse that could be around the corner if the team trusted unknown options. Maybe they're just trying to keep the band together in the wake of the team's identity departing. Neither one is a good enough reason for me.
The Baron's Playlist for the 14th of December, 2011 -- A handful of breakup songs for our recent separation
"Your Ex-Lover is Dead" - Stars
"Iodine" - Leonard Cohen
"Beer" - Reel Big Fish
"Valentine's Day is Over" - Billy Bragg
"My Darling, I've Forgotten" - Of Montreal
"Am I That Easy to Forget?" - Skeeter Davis
"Heartbroke" - the Good Life
"Poke" - Frightened Rabbit (this one cuts very, very deeply)
"2002" - Bob Schneider
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Good post
Skip’s being paid too much considering his replacements. Even if he’s not replacement level compared to the league as a whole, he is replacement level compare to the other potential 24th/25th men we have in the minors.
Also, my biggest problem with this is that Skip will be taking away at bats from Matt Carp, who needs to get a reasonable amount of PA at the major league level next year.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
Definitely an unimaginative and very ordinary move
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 6:39 AM EST up reply actions
VEB should really institute a 2 week period from The Signing to purge all Pujols-related profile names, images, etc.
Ad Maiorem Tortius Gloriam
by peppermartin on Dec 14, 2011 8:07 AM EST up reply actions
If Azru will allow me to change my name, I will
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 8:09 AM EST up reply actions
That sucks - I didn't take into account the technical complications
It’s like a divorce. It’s the kids that always end up getting hurt.
Ad Maiorem Tortius Gloriam
by peppermartin on Dec 14, 2011 8:16 AM EST up reply actions
Oooh can I choose the new one?
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
Now when I say "Hello Mr. Thompson" and press down on your foot, you smile and nod.
I smacked Rickey right in the face when he told me this idea.
by Hootie Who on Dec 14, 2011 9:18 AM EST up reply actions 8 recs
Damn it!
I can do no wrong, for I do not know what it is.
by the red baron on Dec 14, 2011 9:29 AM EST up reply actions
2SLO LOLOLOLOLO!!!!
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
Alright, that will be enough out of you.
Aren’t you a Rockies fan anyway? I’m surprised we even let you in the door ‘round these parts at a time like this. You take Beltran and I’ma be pissed.
I can do no wrong, for I do not know what it is.
by the red baron on Dec 14, 2011 9:31 AM EST up reply actions
Well to be fair I root for the Cards in the 150+ games they play
every year they aren’t playing the Rockies. Also Kolten Wong was their top target in the 2011 draft and a certain team took him so evensies+plus we lost our own late round draft steal because he wanted more money and he happens to play LF.
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
I always thought the funniest thing would have been to offer Holliday
7/125 in FA once they already had Cargo in the trade.
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
I'm not interested in your version of the so-called facts.
They contradict my own. Ergo, no deal.
I can do no wrong, for I do not know what it is.
by the red baron on Dec 15, 2011 2:10 AM EST up reply actions
can I be John Elway?
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
by TomCat009 on Dec 14, 2011 9:29 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I think he's talking to you...
I can do no wrong, for I do not know what it is.
by the red baron on Dec 14, 2011 9:29 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
cause i'm too dumb to get the joke
"I still don’t understand what commercial is better than having me on tv" – Chris Carpenter
2011: Boog would've count 78
ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
it’s from one of the best Simpsons episodes (Cape Feare), but when I went to link it the site I always watch the episodes on is gone. Noooo!!!!! The counterpart site for Arrested Development episodes is also gone. Nooooo!!!!!
my favorite words are goodbye and my favorite color is red
BART DO YOU WANT SOME BROWNIES BEFORE YOU GO TO BED!!!???
BART YOU WANNA SEE MY NEW CHAINSAW AND HOCKEY MASK!!!???
by mattybobo on Dec 14, 2011 10:52 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
/checks stern, alligators
/checks bow, electric eels
/checks stern, alligators
“oh yeah”
my favorite words are goodbye and my favorite color is red
we object to the term "urine soaked hell hole"
When you could have said “pee-pee soaked heck hole”
I smacked Rickey right in the face when he told me this idea.
Hello! You forgot my pills.
I’m cold and there are wolves after me.
I smacked Rickey right in the face when he told me this idea.
Streaming media is blocked at my new job.
I can’t wait to get home and watch this episode.
Best. Simpsons. Ever.
There I said it.
I smacked Rickey right in the face when he told me this idea.
I would quibble and say
“Last Exit to Springfield,” the season 4 episode where Homer leads the union strike, but it’s such a close call that there’s really no difference.
my favorite words are goodbye and my favorite color is red
DENTAL PLAN!!
damn, that one is good too.
I smacked Rickey right in the face when he told me this idea.
I think you have to email SBN
maybe dan/bjork would be able to assist. Just don’t ask for collapsible threads.
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
Things that are totally not up to me.
If you want a new screenname, I don’t care. (preserve the avatar though.) If you want to change THIS accounts moniker, that is well beyond my authority.
Beware: Velociraptors may be present.
oh, my bad
i’ll email sbn probably.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 9:47 AM EST up reply actions
"Da Mang who must not be named"
"I don't know, but it works. Doin it for Torty works... He brings us luck and we're gonna roll with it." Allen Craig
"Voldermang"
"I don't know, but it works. Doin it for Torty works... He brings us luck and we're gonna roll with it." Allen Craig
Would rather have Chambers instead
Of Skippy. And the only thing Kmac is good for is batting practice. He sure can “groove” it.
by setitan on Dec 14, 2011 6:44 AM EST via mobile reply actions
Have you actually looked at K-Mac's results?
I absolutely, positively do not understand the loathing for this man. It is NOT justified by his career to date. Yes, he is overextended as a starter. Everybody knows that. He wasn’t re-upped to be a starter. He was re-upped as a middle-innings guy, in which role he has been useful every year except 2011, when he was dog-tired by the time he tried to fill it.
As for all these other guys who are “blocked” by this signing, don’t be ridiculous. They’ll pitch in the bigs, and on average, they’ll pitch 90% as many innings as they would have without K-Mac — maybe more. Right handed relievers are fungible. They are also pitchers, and intrinsically fragile. When somebody goes down with an injury, someone else will be called up.
Find something more important to be enraged about, people.
"That’s what a baseball player does: he uses the glove half of the time." -- Rick Horton regarding the DH.
by StanTheManFan on Dec 14, 2011 9:32 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
You're exactly right.
Right-handed relievers are fungible, so why would we pay McClellan nearly $2 million to be right-handed reliever when we could pay a better pitcher less to do the same thing?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
because he is also SP depth at that price
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
No, he isn't.
If you sign McClellan and keep him on the MLB roster, he will not be conditioned to start. The SP depth will come from Memphis, where the pitchers are conditioned for the task. Now, if you want to argue that signing McClellan allows the Cardinals to keep Lynn down in Memphis starting, I’d be willing to listen.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Well if in Spring Training someithing impossible like say an injury to a
staff that includes 3 guys who will be 33+ this year, Kmac is a nice early season bridge that can always be traded at that price.
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
No, he isn't a nice early season bridge.
Lynn is a better pitcher in the bullpen or rotation right now. I’d hope he would be the likely fill-in. McClellan is a replacement-level relief pitcher and a horribly sub-replacement starter.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Look I would rather have Saito who signed for 1.75
than Kmac for 2 but even if Lynn is a better pitcher this is a staff of a 37yo coming off a 275 inning year, AW coming off TJ, JG probably good here, KL 33 with a history of injury, JW 34 his 4.08 xFIP wasn’t that much better than KMac’s 4.24 so with a staff with that many risks stockpililng 6th,7th and even 8th starters is probably a wise Idea
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
Is there any correlation between pitcher age and injury?
Because I’ve never heard this before. I guess you put more stock in his ability to strike out 4.56 batters per nine innings while walking 2.58 and be effective than I would.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Well injury history is certainly correlated with injury probablility
and while I can’t prove it out right I am guessing that injuries are at the core of the decline most players experience in their 30s
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
I'd have guessed it to be age.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
which does what exactly?
Todd Helton suffered a back injury at 35 that is incredibly rare in 23 yo why is that?
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
One anecdote about a first baseman
does not prove that age corrlates with pitcher injuries. Especially pitcher injuries post-Tommy John surgery, a procedure four of the five starters in our rotations have undergone.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
It isn't one anecdote it was one example of thousands
and it is a silly argument. If I list Roy Oswalt and every other example what do I prove?
You will just say “that doesn’t prove anything” so go ahead and be happy in your belief that age has nothing to do with injury and I will be happy to believe otherwise.
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
the problem is that your "thousands" of examples
don’t prove anything either. Young pitchers get hurt too. Garcia. Wainwright. Thousands of other examples.
btw, im not saying i don't believe age contributes to injury..
I don’t know the answer. I could see the argument for either side. But listing names of players of all ages who have been hurt isn’t going to prove either side.
also, there's survivorship bias at play...
players get to be older players by not getting seriously hurt early and flaming out. so the universe of older players in the league inherently should have more durable players
exactly it's like an actuary friend of mine
showed me that if I make it to 108 statistically I should make 120
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
Except no one here is saying that any STL pitcher will pitch for X more years.
We’re just saying that the risk of an injury to starter in one year, 2012, does not justify keeping McClellan in the bullpen where he won’t be conditioned to be a starting pitcher. Any replacement starter will very likely come from Memphis.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
that makes no sense and is clearly wrong
Sign Hong-Chih Kuo
by tehzachatak on Dec 14, 2011 11:57 AM EST up reply actions
in the sense that the odds
liveing to 108 are so statistically insignificant that the odds of living to 120 are not really that different. It was a theoretical practice
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
See that is a practical application
of statistics that is lacking in Bostons FO you got yourself a job!!
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
I didn't say I believed age had nothing to do with pitcher injuries.
I said I wasn’t aware a connection had been shown. Pitchers get injured. It’s the nature of the job, which requires one to make an incredibly strenuous and unnatural motion thousands of times over a season. That most common injury is probably the elbow. Four of our starters have already undergone Tommy John surgery to repair their elbows. Does this make them more or less likely to sustain a season-ending injury in 2012? I don’t know.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
With elbow problems specifically? No
I doubt that has been linked to age, I suspect things like Arthritis, Tendonitis, Back injuries, and shoulder injuries are likely to correlate pretty strongly with age.
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
all4tookie survivorship bias is an interesting point.
I’m sure there are studies on this.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
yeah if you have survived to 33 in MLB
you are way out in the right tail of the curve. I would guess it is hard to say it is more likely that a 34 yo is injury risk than say a 25 yo is a risk to be ineffective
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
i don't actually know that the older player universe is relatively more durable of course
but I would certainly expect that to be the case. don’t even know one could even go about proving that – looking at DL stints doesn’t really do the trick because of the guys forced out due to diminished post-injury production
I would guess there is also diminishing
returns for every year past 30
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
I seem to remember a pitcher's peak season coming later than a position player's,
but I could be wrong. Still probably a fair guess.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
this is actually a decent argument. i am not in favor of kmac on the roster.
and i would like to see lynn in the BP. however, we are losing westy and lohse after 2012 and it seems likely that lynn will be inserted into the rotation. with that in mind, i do think there’s an argument that it is more valuable for the cardinals’ future to have him start in memphis in 2011 so he is ready for the rotation in 2012.
You teach me baseball and I'll teach you relativity. No, we must not. You will learn about relativity faster than I learn baseball. --Albert Einstein
2011 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!
Do we lack for starting pitching depth right now?
The Cardinals will have Lance Lynn, Rzepcynski, Cleto, Miller and Dickson all in the majors or in Memphis.
Beware: Velociraptors may be present.
I watched the Rockies use 12 starters last year and that from a staff that had one 30 yo
at the start of the season. The Cards have a window of contention right now, Berkman, Furcal and Carpenter in their last years of effectiveness. Yadi and Waino are underpaid for a little while longer it would be shame to miss the playoffs because they were one or two starters short.
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
Well sure, but they traded away a starter last year too.
Not to mention being completely out of the race at the end of July allowed them to test out some arms they might not have otherwise.
Let’s not pick the worst case scenario and plan for that, regardless.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
They traded a starter for three more pitchers
including two of the starters they used. JDLR had TJ, Nicasio got hit in the head after a very nice start to his career, Esmil Rodgers was ineffective, Ditto Aaron Cook, Jason Hammel fell apart coming off two 4 WAR seasons.
They realised that in the years 2015-17 when Cargo and Tulo are making a combined 36-40 million they can’t be giving 7 starts to Clay Mortensen(was surprisingly effective) Greg Reynolds(wasn’t) or Alan Johnson they need cost controlled pitching and went after Chatwood in the Iannetta trade.
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
Yup, let's just keep Kyle McClellan around
in case all this shit happens to the Cardinals and we trade Adam Wainwright for prospects.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
nope clear him out because Cleto is a better option to spot start
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
he's not better but he's in the same ballpark, makes 1/4th of what KMac does and doesn't occupy a major league roster spot!
Sign Hong-Chih Kuo
by tehzachatak on Dec 14, 2011 12:48 PM EST up reply actions
again this is a devil you know move
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
why is that a good thing?
Sign Hong-Chih Kuo
by tehzachatak on Dec 14, 2011 12:50 PM EST up reply actions
why is that a good thing?
Sign Hong-Chih Kuo
by tehzachatak on Dec 14, 2011 12:52 PM EST up reply actions
(i can do this all day!)
Sign Hong-Chih Kuo
by tehzachatak on Dec 14, 2011 12:52 PM EST up reply actions
i totally agree with you.
i’m just trying to be silly.
it is what it is, not what we thought it'd be
i know, i'm just having fun
Sign Hong-Chih Kuo
by tehzachatak on Dec 14, 2011 12:55 PM EST up reply actions
Finally, he gets it
I’m ignoring this attempt at sarcasm and just assuming that you finally came around.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
hey that was very succesful piece of sarcasm
it was fully sarcastic in every neccessary way and I won’t have you minamizing it’s sarcastiness.
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
It would also be a shame to miss the playoffs because we had a useless reliever making 2 million
instead of signing a LOOGY or something.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 10:38 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
you are acting like there is no trade market for KMac at 2 Million
I am guessing they can move him easily at that price
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
Well I'd be all for that
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 10:52 AM EST up reply actions
It would be likely right now teams are just figuring out their rosters
and why give anything for Kmac when there are some many FA around. If it is june and say the Twins are in contention and a starter goes down KMac is a commodity and the market isn’t flooded with replacements. What I really don’t understand is why AZ didn’t take this approach with Saunders?
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
I don't have faith in Mo to eventually trade KMac
Hoping I’m wrong.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 11:07 AM EST up reply actions
Mo has traded a lot of young relievers over the last few years
Gregerson, Todd, Hawk, and Perez all jump to mind all it takes is one team viewing KMac as a starter. Hell the Rockies are paying Slowey 2.3 million this year
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
KMac is not a commodity as a starter
i really don’t understand why you believe a sub replacement level starting pitcher is a trade chip as a SP. the entire point of the replacement level concept is that you can go find a replacement level player with relative ease, and i know of no monumental changes in the MLB environment that have changed this. so if you can go find a replacement level SP for league minimum, why on EARTH would you trade valuable pieces for KMac in addition to paying his well over league minimum salary?
if he’s just a reliever, then he’s a reliever, in which case we have much better options for much less than 2 million on the roster.
Sign Hong-Chih Kuo
by tehzachatak on Dec 14, 2011 12:00 PM EST up reply actions
OK, I'll bite
K-Mac is probably a better 5th starter option than half of MLB’s teams will have on opening day.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Dec 14, 2011 12:02 PM EST up reply actions
please, go look at all the projected 5th starters, and get back to me once you have more than an opinion
Kyle McClellan is sub-replacement level. that means in theory that he is worse than any SP freely available at any time, and i think you will find this to be true.
Sign Hong-Chih Kuo
by tehzachatak on Dec 14, 2011 12:31 PM EST up reply actions
I don't know why GM's do thing like demand
Joe Saunders in the Haren trade he was coming off 186 innings of 5.17 FIP but they do things like that. Go ahead tell me why anyone would trade for Vernon Wells in 2010?
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
This is easy
Joe Saunders > Vernon Wells
by SouthsideCardsFan on Dec 14, 2011 12:05 PM EST up reply actions
i will once again point out that your complete cherry picking of stats and situations makes your evidence almost completely meaningless
but while you’re continuing to do it, i’ll bite: both of those players have had SIGNIFICANT VALUE in the fairly recent future. while i would agree with your assessment that those were extremely poor choices by the GMs, the possibility of Vernon Wells or Joe Saunders putting up a 3 WAR season is within the realm of possibility (and still, Vernon wouldn’t be worth it, which is another reason that was so dumb).
on the other hand, the chances of Kyle McClellan putting up a 3 WAR season, are, um, yeah.
Sign Hong-Chih Kuo
by tehzachatak on Dec 14, 2011 12:34 PM EST up reply actions
I am not cherry picking I am giving examples of largely indefensible moves
by GM’s I am not arguing keeping KMac was a good Idea, I am saying there is a defense for it. The cards have now committed 2.5 million discretionary dollars to KMac and Skip is that how I would do it… no is it going to significantly hurt the cards playoff chances I would argue that it doesn’t and could even see it helping them. You of course can argue that it hurts them but it is a stretch to say it is say it is a make or break move.
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
The Cardinals also have limited resources and roster spots.
You simply can’t plan for every externality and if you focus too much on preventing low probability scenarios, it is likely to the detriment of other problems.
Look, I wrote a full defense of Miguel Batista last year. It was one of the dumber things I did in retrospect, not because he sucked but because the risk-averse nature of the move actually creates its own risk. This is much the same case with McClellan. Sure he’s available to be a starter but he’s also available to blow games as long as he’s on the team. We’re spending $2M on someone that is, essentially, a LOOGy. I don’t get that.
Beware: Velociraptors may be present.
I really can't think of a good reason to keep KMac
Besides they think there is a high chance that Sanchez’ arm is about to fall off.
Grit != flat out sucking.
If Sanchez's arm falls off
don’t guys like Reifer, Joe Kelly, Jordan Swagerty, et al mitigate that risk? I don’t see what risk that McClellan is mitigating that isn’t possible to use some else to fix. My most charitable argument is LOOGy but I don’t know that I’d spend $2M on that.
Beware: Velociraptors may be present.
you're right
I got nothing. K-Mac was fine when he was free, at $2M it doesn’t make a lick of sense. I’d blame TLR if he was still around, so instead I think I’ll blame Dunc.
Grit != flat out sucking.
This is the foundation of the argument for letting McClellan leave.
He was fine when he cost the league-minimum, but you shouldn’t pay him $2MM to do what he does.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Thing is...
he should have trade value. Someone is going to want a guy who went 12-7 with a decent-ish era in 150 innings. I would have tendered him a contract too. Now the trade has to happen because if he makes the roster either Boggs or Sanchez won’t.
Sign Roy O
I don't trust Mo
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 10:53 AM EST up reply actions
why??
Someone is going to want a guy who went 12-7 with a decent-ish era in 150 innings.
anyone with a ounce of sense in their skull will realize that promoting their most MLB ready prospect from the minors to start will be superior and cheaper to KMac. Ed Wade is no longer a MLB GM, or maybe this would be possible.
Sign Hong-Chih Kuo
by tehzachatak on Dec 14, 2011 12:01 PM EST up reply actions
there are plenty of miserable GM's still gming
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 12:02 PM EST up reply actions
I think you overestimate
the quality/MLB readiness of at least half of MLB’s best starting pitching prospects.
Pitching the major leagues, even at a replacement level, is hard, and you don’t just hand wave away domeone who has shown an ability to do that.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Dec 14, 2011 12:04 PM EST up reply actions
yes, you do
that’s the point of replacement level, by definition. you don’t wave away an AVERAGE SP, even if they are only average, which is why Jake Westbrook (below average, above replacement level) still has value- but Kyle McClellan is a SUB REPLACEMENT LEVEL starter. i’m not sure why this is such a difficult concept.
Sign Hong-Chih Kuo
by tehzachatak on Dec 14, 2011 12:35 PM EST up reply actions
Actually, no
you are assuming that an organization’s best starting pitching prospect in the minors is automatically a replacement level starter. That is decidedly not true.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Dec 14, 2011 12:42 PM EST up reply actions
Exactly Alex White was worth .08 fWAR in 51 innings
KMac was worth -.06 fWAR over 141 innings and White was really highly regarded
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
sorry it was -0.8
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
awesome, fifty-one innings.
Sign Hong-Chih Kuo
by tehzachatak on Dec 14, 2011 12:48 PM EST up reply actions
if you are saying that this is SSS
and that a 2.63 HR/9 isn’t sustainable then you are just being silly
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
well, i could say that
but i’ll say exactly what i’ve said about 5 times in the past week, what on earth does this have to do with anything we’re talking about?
Sign Hong-Chih Kuo
by tehzachatak on Dec 14, 2011 12:54 PM EST up reply actions
first-
i said no such thing. i said most MLB ready prospect, which is typically a dude with little upside- think a Brad Thompson. perhaps this is a stretch- fine. i think MOST organizations have someone in AAA who could be a replacement level MLB starter. if not- you go acquire one off the free agent market! or acquire someone who is DFA’d during the year! this is the entire point of the replacement level concept, and i do not understand why you are having such a hard time with it.
Sign Hong-Chih Kuo
by tehzachatak on Dec 14, 2011 12:47 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not having. . .
a hard time with the replacement level concept. i completely understand it. The fact is, however, that a bunch of major league teams trot out a bunch of starting pitchers every year who are sub-sub-replacement level (i.e. far worse than Kyle McClellan).
Look, in K-Mac’s 17 starts last year, batters put up a 257/310/412 line against him. That’s good for a batter OPS+ of 97 (i.e. worse hitting than the major league average).
I have neither the time nor the inclination to look at the as-a-Starter splits for every single craptastic 4th and 5th starter that teams threw into the fire for a significant number of major league starts last season, but I guarantee you that many of them performed substantialy worse than K-Mac. They weren’t allowed to generate KMac’s -0.6 fWAR (but 0.5 b-rWAR) because they were worse than KMac. (And it’s also interesting to note that KMac was actually worse as a reliever than he was as a starter last season, although fatigue from the career-high number of IP probably had an effect.)
by SouthsideCardsFan on Dec 14, 2011 2:19 PM EST up reply actions
But why does this happen?
The fact is, however, that a bunch of major league teams trot out a bunch of starting pitchers every year who are sub-sub-replacement level (i.e. far worse than Kyle McClellan).
I think that’s the really interesting thing here. If those guys are so bad, why do they get trotted out there by more than one team? Clearly there are limitations on player movement, bad performance issues, etc. All of those reasons would have a factor.
But I think that paying a guy who’s not likely to ever be BETTER than replacement level more than replacement level salary to be on your roster is probably not a wise decision, right?
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
I personally think that. . .
the level of “Replacement Value” needs re-jiggered.
The concept is fine and all, but I think it’s time that sabremetrics uses replacement value to reflect reality a bit more clearly rather than looking at an idealized world where all GMs have math degrees, pocket protectors, and live in their moms’ basements.
I’m being insulting for comedic effect of course, but time and again we have seen some of sabremetrics more extreme theories reeled back in toward the old-school conventional wisdom side of the equation, not all the way, mind you. I think the concept of replacement value is one that needs to be similarly examined and improved upon.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Dec 14, 2011 2:50 PM EST up reply actions
I agree with this...
the idea is that replacement players are “freely available” which is fine, in theory, but it seems as if, in some cases, these theoretical players are difficult to find. Of course it changes from year to year, and position to position.
Because Matheny
I kinda agree with this
because it’s clear that replacement players aren’t freely available. In actuality, very few players are freely available, and that leads to a ton of below replacement innings from position players and pitchers alike.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
But there's also a ton of above-replacement innings from players and pitchers alike.
So replacement level would be somewhere in between.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
No
Unless you mean a ton of above-replacement-level performance from freely-available talent. Then, sure. Albert Pujols’ performance next year should have little to nothing to do with what is “replacement level”.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Dec 14, 2011 3:05 PM EST up reply actions
I mean the freely-available talent, not Pujols.
Like, say, Tony Cruz.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Agreed
But I’m not sure that really refutes anything that we’re being critical of here.
The issue in question is really whether there is “freely available talent” in major league baseball. The only players who are “freely available” are those on the free agent market, which is generally less than 20% of all players currently playing baseball even in a big free agent year.
It’s really a similar argument to the one about $/WAR on the free agent market — there’s a large fluctuation based on players, positions, teams involved, etc.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
Replacement level players are guys who you could trade your C- level prospects to get
They only have value based on the hole they are filling.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 3:10 PM EST up reply actions
And this doesn't answer my question.
Those players are not “freely available” to sign with whoever they want. If they were, there would be fewer players playing at below replacement value at any one time in the major leagues, because teams could simply dump that guy for a better one, as he is freely available.
The entire concept is flawed from this standpoint. I get the reasoning for the valuation, and it’s important, but it’s by no means perfect and I think we’ve demonstrated here reasons why that is the case. And reasons to look at re-evaluating how it is calculated.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
isn't part of it
that “waiver wire” players are supposed to be grouped in with the valuation.
Because Matheny
based on random variation
some players will perform below replacement level, even if they are true talent replacement level players.
Also managers and GM’s have biases that cause them to below replacement level players.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 3:16 PM EST up reply actions
Still not addressing Freely Available Talent.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
well you can get FA either through the waiver wire or through trades of replacement level players
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 3:17 PM EST up reply actions
Teams will stick with a player who is performing at below replacement level
because they believe he will improve. Based on distributions of performance, some of those players will not improve.
So there will always be players playing below replacement level, we don’t know what the correct percetage should be.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 3:20 PM EST up reply actions
This is true, but. . .
as a theoretical construct, and as currently valued, the replacement player leads to absurd arguments like:
Kyle McClellan should not be paid more than the major-league minimum because freely-available talent will be able to do what he does.
So there is a problem with how the level of replacement player performance is set.
I suspect that McClellan might have been able to get more on the FA market than he would get in arbitration with the Cards.
And don’t even get me started on the WAR positional adjustment.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Dec 14, 2011 4:03 PM EST up reply actions
I don't plan on it
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 4:04 PM EST up reply actions
I would spend that on a LOOGY
But an actually Loogy, one who’ll put up a 2.50 FIP against lefties, not a 3.80.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 10:45 AM EST up reply actions
But when one goes down for the season
It would sure be nice to have an extra. Yes we have other relievers but K-Mac is useful for what he is and fairly cheap.
This is my hope.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I would be for that but
I doubt it. I see us trading another Reliever with real value before we get rid of him.
He's a bit more valuable than Hawksworth, I think
And look what HE brought us!
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
Fink?
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 10:53 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Value in return
Yes, but I don’t know that KMac is more valuable. The Hawk I feel had more possible upside than KMac.
Exactly right Stantheman
It’s just that a certain number of people on this site have to have somebody to beat up on and lord you would think Skip would be enough, but I guess.
Meanwhile sign Aaron Miles.
I'm fine with Skip
I agree with most of your points, Baron, but Skip does offer a positive clubhouse presence (think Berkman on a smaller scale). And at worst, maybe he becomes part of a trade later. Frankly, I want to quote that line from Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy. Skip is “mostly harmless”.
PS – I will refrain from mentioning the Old GRIT chestnut. Cause that’s just silly.
Pretty much how I feel about the contract...
I normally dislike solely clubhouse signings, but $1.5 million a year is an acceptable range to take that into account. As much as many people dislike intangeables as a reason to keep a guy around, I think this is a critical point to do so for the Cardinals. Not only is Pujols gone, but there’s a new, inexperienced manager replacing a strong-willed one and a lot of young guys filling roles on the roster. Having another known personality in the clubhouse who is regarded as a leader is important for that transition.
I have my own issues with Skip (slap hitter who doesn’t work as a defensive replacement), but at that price, you could do worse for a depth bench guy.
I don't buy the Schumaker as leader narrative.
If Schumaker were such a great leader, why didn’t he lead in 2010? Why was Mozeliak openly searching for “a straw to stir the drink” at the trade deadline and then again during the Hot Stove?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Even when players and the people in the clubhouse are saying it?
You could also point to Pujols, Holliday, and Carpenter as failures as leaders in 2010, by your logic.
And I never saw Mozeliak openly searching for a straw to stir the drink; he was openly searching for improvements to the clubhouse. That does not mean the clubhouse was absent in those kinds of players.
Just because everyone tows the company line doesn't make the company line true.
If the argument is that Schumaker is worth a roster spot because he is “a leader” and a “clubhouse guy,” then why didn’t his clubhouse presence and leadership affect the club on the field in 2010? If Schumaker is so well-respected, why didn’t he lead the 2010 club to a record on par with their Pythag record? If Schumaker is such a great clubhouse presence, why was Mozeliak openly shopping for a clubhouse guy at the 2010 trade deadline? If Schumaker is such a great clubhouse presence and leader, why was Mozeliak still shopping for a clubhouse leader in the post-2010 Hot Stove? It doesn’t add up.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
"then why didn’t his clubhouse presence and leadership affect the club on the field in 2010?"
Again, why didn’t Pujols? Why didn’t Holliday? Why didn’t Carpenter? Gee, Carpenter must be a lousy mentor for the rotation, because he obviously didn’t lead in the Cardinals’ 2010 collapse and the rotation stank down the stretch. Duncan must suck too as a coach. That’s a problem with absolutist logic—its focusing the reasoning on a single player and assuming that “locker room leader” means “automatic wins.” It’s also weak caucation thinking: The entire team lost, therefore, this guy is a failure as a leader. This guy’s stats dropped like a stone, therefore he must have been on steroids. It’s reasoning that completely rules out other factors in favor of a pet one.
You’re also missing my point—Mozeiak was looking to improve the clubhouse atmosphere, not find a leader that wasn’t there. From his perspective, there was not enough of x personality and too much of y. It’s a team with 25 guys in the room. One guy is not suddenly going to fix all of their woes. Hence, the word “improve.”
You’re not in the Cardinals’ clubhouse. You’re not even in the hallway. You and I don’t know how Shumaker affects the locker room outside of how players and coaches talk about that influence unprompted. Dismissing those words simply as a “company line” is an action based on ignorance of the actual situation.
You did not address the fundamental question posed by my comment.
If every intangible that is being touted about Schumaker is true, why didn’t it manifest itself on the field?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
No one is arguing that we sign Holliday, Pujols, Carp, etc,
on the basis of their leadership. They get lots of his, homers, walks, or they shut offenses down for us. Their skills are self-evident. Skip’s skills are nonexistent. What you are arguing is that, no wait, his skills aren’t nonexistent, they’re just not self-evident. Okay, well how do you know they exist then? How can you not ascribe the same skillset to any player at any position on any team?
"Congratulations to the Cardinals! Such a fun world series." - Salman Rushdie
you're saying this as if matheny was hired from the outside
he’s no stranger to our vets or your youngsters. at the very least they spend spring training with him
"I still don’t understand what commercial is better than having me on tv" – Chris Carpenter
2011: Boog would've count 78
I don't mind Skip at this price this year
and, as someone pointed out yesterday, sitting Skip on the ML bench as the 24th or 25th man keeps us from having a younger player with some upside in that role. Better that someone like Chambers play every day in Memphis than sit in STL. Could we have found someone better suited to this role (that is, someone with at least a little pop) at the same price? Perhaps, but perhaps not. Overall, I object more to the 2-year contract rather than having Skip back this year.
No,
I’m saying that Matheny is a stranger to the role of manager, which also alters how he approaches and deals with players he’s related either as an individual instructor or teammate. It’s the same kind of adjustment that McGwire had to make when he became hitting coach, but on a bit bigger, more complicated scale.
How desperate would another
team have to be to trade for Skip? Even the Astros or Orioles could cough up their own version of Skip from AAA and pay him league minimum.
Aaron Miles continues to work in MLB I think you are underestimating how much
some managers/GMs love an empty batting average, even if it comes with bad defense
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
by TomCat009 on Dec 14, 2011 9:07 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Not just an empty batting average with bad defense...
An established, steady empty batting average, with veteran bad defense.
Exactly something the AA Giants would have killed for last year
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
The Baron answered this one: Not all that desperate.
Even if he has a repeat of last year (his worst year ever) he would be worth the entire contract in less than full time next year. It’s a team friendly contract, if you need a 4th OF/emergency infielder. We don’t need that, but some team might. We might be able to pay the contract and trade him, essentially buying a half-unterrible prospect. Probably not though. I’d wager Moz just did something dumb.
by Jon S. on Dec 14, 2011 11:44 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
My first thought was that Matheny must like him
Theres that, and maybe the organization wants to hang on to familiar guys that the fans like post-Albert as a PR kind of thing. Casual fans recognize Skip, he’s been around for a while, and see his batting average and ruggedly handsome steez and take various levels of shine to him, and those types of fans are the same ones who think that the team should have paid Albert whatever he wanted (they also think that the government doesn’t need a budget to operate, but that’s only slightly related), so they’re the kinds of fans that are really peeved at the team for letting him leave. My guess is that part of the calculus in keeping Skip was to appease this type of cardinal fan, for very, very little money.
No idea why they kept McClellan though.
"The Mollusk" makes me want to rail LSD crystals off my friends' sternum. Rage."
by ICEYhawtSTUNNAZ on Dec 14, 2011 8:16 AM EST via mobile reply actions
I'm with the idea
that it’s more of a morale issue. Don’t get rid of popular presences in the clubhouse when everyone is already hurting from the Great Defection. And as RB said, they don’t actually damage the team per se.
Cards fan in Middle East
I can understand the points people are making about Skip being a popular player,
and perhaps a good clubhouse presence, but what it comes down to for me is your last sentence. “…they don’t actually damage the team per se.” The problem is, they do damage the team. Not directly, no, but indirectly for sure, by limiting your ability to improve the team with that roster spot.
You don’t bunt because you have a limited number of outs and shouldn’t give them away. You don’t fill roster spots with valueless players because you have a limited number of chances to add wins to your club.
I can do no wrong, for I do not know what it is.
by the red baron on Dec 14, 2011 8:34 AM EST up reply actions
Valid points, of course
unless the FO has gauged the clubhouse mood to be one that won’t survive more cuts, regardless of better replacements available.
And as to your bunt comparison – sometimes you do bunt (unless you are opposed to it in principle, in which case I disagree), when the risk of losing the inning completely (a la GIDP) outweighs the loss of one out.
Cards fan in Middle East
That whole thing where you
bunt with a man on 2nd and 0 outs—a TLR specialty but a move I see a lot of managers make—I could live w/o that one forever. If Matheny starts doing that I’ll sour on him quickly
by MdRedbirdFreak on Dec 14, 2011 8:44 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
but with a man on first
or on first and second, does make sense, especially with a GIDP (GITP?) risk.
that said, the Lohse bunt in the 10th almost blew up in TLR’s face, if Beltre had managed to nab it out of the air (which he almost did and is quite capable of)
Cards fan in Middle East
by Shloz on Dec 14, 2011 8:47 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I've got too much Earl Weaver
in my soul. If you play for one run, that’s probably all you’re going to get.
If I were a manager I’d make sure my team was good at bunting, because sometimes you’ll need to do it and you might even need to win a WS game with a bunt. And I’d ask pitchers to bunt, and I’d ask certain other players in certain other situations to bunt.
But I see way too many mgrs trotting out that strategy in early innings, in tie games at home, etc. TLR got crazy with it. As a manager I might even do it in some of those crazy situations, just to plant the idea in Dusty Baker’s head that I might bunt now and then. But damned if I’d give up outs by the bushel.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Dec 14, 2011 8:53 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Not to mention the "bunt for hit"
that TLR liked to use a heck of a lot as well.
When it worked, it was certainly cool. And it does catch the opposition off guard and make them do goofy things on the field.
Furcal’s half-bunt was even cooler, IMHO
Cards fan in Middle East
If only more guys could pull
off the David Eckstein show-bunt-pull-back-hit-grand slam that we saw a few years ago.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Dec 14, 2011 8:58 AM EST up reply actions
No, it doesn't make sense. It lowers your run expectancy.
Why would you make a move that reduces the amount of runs your club should score? About the only time to bunt is with the pitcher or a player like Schumaker up because they are so likely to make an out anyway or when you are playing for only one run.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
it makes sense in a tie game in late innings
Because it increase your run probability. I haven’t really looked at when “late innings” should come in play. But at the very least in the bottom of the 9th when you are tied. And maybe when you are down by run. I guess the best way to look at it is what that one run would do to win probability in the situation.
Grit != flat out sucking.
Like I said.
It only makes sense if you are playing for one run.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
TLR really didnt have any other choice in that situation
With no bench players available
I crawled the earth, but now I'm higher, 2010 watch it go to fire!
by First mammal to wear pants on Dec 14, 2011 11:49 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
The other problem with bunts
is that you might be afraid of the GIDP, but the chances of that outcome are limited, whereas the chance that your bunt WILL end in an out is extremely high.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Dec 14, 2011 8:46 AM EST up reply actions
yes
it’s like amputating your leg in order to not have the possibility of breaking it if you happen to trip and fall.
Sign Hong-Chih Kuo
by tehzachatak on Dec 14, 2011 12:10 PM EST up reply actions
There's a reason Nick Punto started nearly every postseason game at second base over Schumaker.
That’s because everyone knew he was the better all-around player. The Cardinals would have been much better off bringing Punto back. He is a plus, plus defender. He won’t repeat last year’s offensive performance, but he doesn’t need to because he can take a walk with the best of them and play great defense at three infield positions. That is a great bench player—a player that can do one or two things extremely well. Schumaker, on the other hand, has no skill.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
this means no Punto next year doesn't it?
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
Here's the bench, as I anticipate it:
Schumaker
Cruz/Anderson
Greene
Real Back-Up OF
Back-Up IF
So Punto could return. If the club were sign, say, Beltran, that would fill a bench spot.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
My problem with Skip being "super utility" is that he is really not useful.
He can “play” three or four positions, none of them well, of course (and only one an IF position). If he’s just a token RH PHer, that’s fine by me.
But, it’s only $1.5M and the man does have one sweet ass, so I can’t complain too much.
"He probably misses his old glasses."
Look at it this way
If Skip goes down for the season, we will not have lost much.
Older than any three of you.
by Remember Kenny B on Dec 14, 2011 10:25 AM EST up reply actions
How do you know
the better player that might take Skip’s place on the roster won’t be a great clubhouse guy too?
by MdRedbirdFreak on Dec 14, 2011 8:47 AM EST up reply actions
You don't, but that's not the issue
I would posit that kicking a guy like Skip out would in itself cause disproportional damage to the clubhouse morale, regardless of who came instead.
Cards fan in Middle East
How is it not the issue?
If the entire basis for keeping Schumaker on the roster is his clubhouse presence and there is another player who has baseball skill and is also a good clubhouse presence, wouldn’t you rather have the player that can help you win on the field?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I can tell you that most of my family...
will be much happier about the Skip signing than they were about Furcal. I don’t get it, but it is what it is.
"Progress always involves risk; you can't steal second base and keep your foot on first base." - Frederick Wilcox
On this subject, I'm just going to go out on a limb and assume the organization knows something about Skip's value that we don't
Either that, or Skip must have some compromising photos of BDW.
Ad Maiorem Tortius Gloriam
I'm kind of hoping at a press conference one of these days
someone will ask Mo about why he brought Skip back, and his answer will be, “Well, the guys like him, and he does this really hilarious bit where he tucks his…”
At which point he’ll realise what he’s saying, his eyes will widen, his cheeks will redden, and he’ll immediately try to change the subject.
I can do no wrong, for I do not know what it is.
by the red baron on Dec 14, 2011 8:36 AM EST up reply actions
Skip is personally responsible for the ban on "getting gum on your shorts" in the clubhouse.
by mattybobo on Dec 14, 2011 11:07 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I had to rec that
Also, I’m know going to think of Skip as the metaphoric gum on the team’s collective shorts.
Gotta be BDW. For years I assumed he had photos of TLR
strangling a kitten or something. Now we know better.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Dec 14, 2011 9:00 AM EST up reply actions
If he does, he got them from Aaron Miles...
* sarcasm may be involved in this comment.
by Futility Infielder on Dec 14, 2011 9:53 AM EST up reply actions
KMac is from st louis
And when the cards had 2 St Louisians in the dugout they won the world series. It is what it is.
bollocks
by SecondHalfMatt on Dec 14, 2011 8:42 AM EST via mobile reply actions
Who else is from St. Louis?
I’m pretty sure you’re thinking of Ryan Howard. He’s on the Phillies.
by StillLostinNC on Dec 14, 2011 8:46 AM EST up reply actions
I'll assume you're kidding
but if you’re not, think about one of Howard’s classmates…
Cards fan in Middle East
Why wasn't this brought to my attention earlier?
Freakin’ TBS.
by StillLostinNC on Dec 14, 2011 8:49 AM EST up reply actions
"I know I said earlier that it wasn't really about the money."
I smell a meme here.
Actually, that was completely accidental.
I wish I could claim credit, though, because it’s really very clever. Alas, totally unintentional.
I can do no wrong, for I do not know what it is.
by the red baron on Dec 14, 2011 9:04 AM EST up reply actions
Dang
I would have bet it was intentional. So, the good news is that I have confidence in you. The bad news is that you let me down.
(Oh, I’m just kidding. Gosh you guys, I could never stay made at ya)
I prefer to think of it as
my brilliance is so bright, so impossibly powerful, that I’m brilliant even when I wasn’t meaning to be. I’m accidentally awesome. Or at least unintentionally awesome.
Now when I actually put in an effort, though….things do not go so well.
I can do no wrong, for I do not know what it is.
by the red baron on Dec 15, 2011 2:20 AM EST up reply actions
thanks for the morning post, RB
Especially nice for us east coast dwellers
by wildman on Dec 14, 2011 8:59 AM EST via mobile reply actions
Welcome.
I can do no wrong, for I do not know what it is.
by the red baron on Dec 14, 2011 9:05 AM EST up reply actions
Do you think that Skip will start next year at 2b?
I know Mo alluded to descalso as next year’s second baseman a couple of times, and I feel like he’s smart enough to use schu as a super-utility bench guy.
Anyway, nice post. Thanks for the thoughts.
I'm having a hard time
seeing what Skip does that DD can’t, for 1/3 the money.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Dec 14, 2011 9:01 AM EST up reply actions
I bet Descalso can play the outfield as well as Schumaker.
I bet Greene can play the outfield better than Schumaker.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
no more infielders in the outfield
please Matheny? And while we at it, no more outfielders in the infield, no more infielders on the mound, and no more pitchers in left.
Grit != flat out sucking.
What about Jaime?
I bet HE could play the outfield as well as Schumaker.
I am a college student that sleeps with a St. Louis Cardinals Fredbird Pillow Pet, and I am proud of it.
Ugh.
I can’t imagine he would. The team finally seemed to get their heads around the idea last year that it just wasn’t going to work with Skippy at second. Hopefully Matheny isn’t the one dude in the org. who’s still on board with the notion.
I can do no wrong, for I do not know what it is.
by the red baron on Dec 14, 2011 9:07 AM EST up reply actions
Mo more than alluded....
He’s pretty much said that Descalso going to be the second baseman. That, combined with the team apparently still thinking of bringing back Punto, tells me that Skip won’t see much time at 2nd at all next year, much less start.
I suggest...
a two-day ban for mentioning this.
"Progress always involves risk; you can't steal second base and keep your foot on first base." - Frederick Wilcox
The only smart way to use Schumaker as a super-utility bench guy is to leave him on the bench.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Someone's gotta
hold that sucker down, it could fly off and put someone’s eye out.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Dec 14, 2011 10:32 AM EST up reply actions
Per every 250 times a hit to second base
Skip hits it down the line for a double. At least see the bright side, com’on!
A team would trade for Skip
If they want an OF with a great arm and hits .290
For 2B he does
not so sure for a RF.
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
Yeah, I have a Twitter...big whoop...wanna fight about it?
So a team will trade for him
If they want an OF with a great arm if he was at 2B?
I am a college student that sleeps with a St. Louis Cardinals Fredbird Pillow Pet, and I am proud of it.
Totes...
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
Yeah, I have a Twitter...big whoop...wanna fight about it?
I know I'm in the minority with.....
this line of thinking, but I think there is some intrinsic value in a) maintaining a bit of continuity, and b) keeping guys around that are well liked.
Obviously you have to balance that with bringing in talented players as well, but we have a lot of talent. Sometimes the known (Skip) is better than the unknown (whomever we’d replace him on the roster with).
JMO.
Yeah
I’m with you. I guess I just don’t see the big deal. Shouldn’t we assume Freese will go down at some point and DD will be needed at 3rd? Greene and Schu will be needed to cover 2nd.
Also, we should just be happy Theriot is gone.
you better keep your fingers crossed until he signs with another team
I smacked Rickey right in the face when he told me this idea.
I'm still trying to figure out why we didn't get a pick for him...
that guy was nails…
"I don't know, but it works. Doin it for Torty works... He brings us luck and we're gonna roll with it." Allen Craig
Agreed.
There is “some” value in this. The question is, how much? Enough to justify keeping a replacement-level player around when upgrades are possible? That’s hard enough to call from within an organization, and all but impossible from outside it.
I will say this: IMO, if keeping Skippy (or K-Mac) is the dumbest thing Mozeliak does this year, he will have out-GMed 29 other guys by a wide margin.
"That’s what a baseball player does: he uses the glove half of the time." -- Rick Horton regarding the DH.
by StanTheManFan on Dec 14, 2011 9:37 AM EST up reply actions
Of course you would change your avatar to that.
Also, how much continuity do you need? Our roster is already going to be like 90% the same with or without Schumaker.
Beware: Velociraptors may be present.
I think my avatar is funny.
I don’t know. I’m not saying there is some magic number of continuity that =’s winning. Just saying it should be a factor. From all accounts, Skip is pretty well liked by everybody in the clubhouse.
So Skip continuity is important but everyone else's isn't?
I’m really having a hard time understanding what it is you are actually saying. There’s not a lot of team turnover this year but you seem concerned that one of the worst players on the team needs to be back for “continuity” purposes? Am I reading this right?
Beware: Velociraptors may be present.
Is this a re-post from the post-2006 World Series Hot Stove
when folks were defending Jocketty’s approach of keeping the club together? Obviously, this club is a lot better than the 2006 one but it is not without its weak points. As RB states, when you lose a player who posted so much surplus value in every season, you have to change your approach to roster construction. You can’t afford to waste a spot on a no-talent player like Schumaker who has an upside of 0.6 WAR instead of 0.3 WAR.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
i don't disagree with this
but i’m not sure what the level of value this has IS. i would be willing to bet that it is not particularly high. of course, Skip’s marginal impact on the talent level of this club is also not particularly high. i still think it’s a poor choice, but it’s clearly not a world ending decision.
Sign Hong-Chih Kuo
by tehzachatak on Dec 14, 2011 12:13 PM EST up reply actions
let's see how the season plays out
this is why teachers hand out grades at the end of the semester, not before the semester even starts.
in late august i was convinced cardinals mgmt had not a clue what they were doing. this was the single stupidest organization in sports.
two months later they were world champs.
baseball, it be’s a crazy game
something is happening here but you don't know what it is
I don't think you are taking into account depth and injuries
We can store away the replacement for McCellelan and Skip in the minors in case of injuries. While Skip nor K-Mac are the optimal players that fill a need of depth.
If you want in on the theoretical winter meet-up, put your availability in the fanpost, please. Time is getting short.
VEB WINTER MEET-UP DISCUSSION
SIGN PRINCE FIELDER
Sometimes life calls for a leader, Fritz. You wouldn't understand.
VEB WINTER MEET-UP DISCUSSION
SIGN PRINCE FIELDER
That's why the meet ups I organize are so disjointed. That and I don't really like you people.
"He probably misses his old glasses."
When I was planning this, I thought to myself, "How can I do this better than Fritz's lame attempt during the season?"
Leadership and Love are the two things I knew I had to bring to the table.
VEB WINTER MEET-UP DISCUSSION
SIGN PRINCE FIELDER
I got your love right HERE, brother.
(pointing to my heart, not my crotch)
VEB WINTER MEET-UP DISCUSSION
SIGN PRINCE FIELDER
Well, I don't know that! But once figure out who will be there, I'll make a wise, firm decision.
(or I’ll ask for ideas and put it to a vote)
VEB WINTER MEET-UP DISCUSSION
SIGN PRINCE FIELDER
Wherever you do it, though, you should definitely split everybody up at the event so nobody sits next to each other
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
(But seriously, thanks for organizing it, Fritz)
…and fink
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
Like you came to the 2011 in-season meet up that Fritz organized, Mr. Too-Important.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I HAD TO WORK THE NEXT DAY YOU NERDS
SORRY I CAN’T MEET UP IN ONE OF YOUR MOTHERS’ BASEMENTS FOR SOME FUCKING BROWNIES AND KOOL AID
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
Something brownies something fucking something your mothers basement.
"He probably misses his old glasses."
It was alligator and beer at a bar, workforfreeaholic.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Is it really work
If he’s doing it for free?
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
Yes.
Under the FLSA it is but I don’t feel like getting into all that.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
There are few things better in life than brownies and kool-aid
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 11:19 AM EST up reply actions
It's not only the opportunity cost for upside performance on the field that is lost.
It is the loss of the chance to create a marketable asset. For example, if MCarp has value x now, what is his value to the market if he has a successful season in the role now filled by Skip? Presumably “proving” himself in the majors will increase his value substantially. If that were to happen, MCarp, because of his age and contract situation, would become a very marketable asset to other teams. There is no possibility for Skip to become a similar asset. And there is really no chance for MCarp to become more valuable by playing more in Memphis. (it doesn’t have to be MCarp, by the way, it would be any young player that Skip is replacing)
by Willie McGee's Twin on Dec 14, 2011 9:37 AM EST reply actions
there may not be any chance for Matt Carpenter to increase his value on the market
However; there is a chance for Matt Carpenter to become a better player. Something that may not happen if he is sitting on a bench in the Majors not receiving PAs or Innings in on defense.
Also, Matt Carpenter is a 3rd baseman and plays on the infield. Skip Schumaker is an outfielder now. If he is taking someone’s place in Memphis. It’s Chambers not Carpenter.
Grit != flat out sucking.
I don't think Carp would benefit much from AAA anymore
He needs to be in the majors. I’d rather see him sit on the bench, pinch hit everygame, and get the occasional start at third. And if Freese goes down he should be the primary replacement (along with a little bit of T. Greene).
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 9:51 AM EST up reply actions
ok
I don’t think Carp would benefit much from AAA anymore
But apparently Mo and his minor league (some which are now major league) staff do. And they are the ones that see him play, and talk to him every day throughout the season.
Grit != flat out sucking.
Oh, so we're doing this now
Why ever question a move if the FO has a reason for it?
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 9:55 AM EST up reply actions
No...
…but the word is that the FO wants MCarp to start playing the outfield more—a position he hasn’t played much—to make him more a utility guy and give him a better chance of making the roster. Right now, he’s exclusively a 3rd baseman. It’a quicker and more effective to do that in Memphis, where he can start at those positions and be allowed to make mistakes rather than St. Louis, where he’ll be a depth bench player.
your allowed to question them
I don’t know enough about the minor league players to do so. But I’ve question them before.
As an example, I’ve said many of times that I think the biggest disservice we ever did to Rasmus was bring him up to early. The kid rocketed through the system, and was hurt for half of the his only AAA season. Another year in AAA could have solved those issues of not getting into position to throw, not hitting the cut off man, not throwing to the correct base, all those things that he did which drove Tony nuts.
I think Craig was the player he was last year, because he spent a good portion of the 2010 season in AAA instead of with the big club. When you are looking for a guy to come up and play for the Majors, I feel you should know that they have nothing to benefit from by staying in the Minors. If their solo purpose is going to be to come up and be the 5th outfielder, then I don’t feel that those players are ones that have any value. (IE, the Stavionhas of the world.)
Sure 5th outfielders sometimes end up being your starting CFer after your manager runs the other guy out of town, but more often than not they are just a PHer. And I don’t like the idea of having someone who could be learning something in that position.
Grit != flat out sucking.
If Carpenter's future with St. Louis is as a bench player in the big leagues, why not put him on the big leaguer bench?
He has nothing left to prove in Memphis.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I feel the same way about Chambers.
I don’t think it’s more important for either of them to play everyday in Memphis. Neither of them are likely to be starters in the bigs so just bring them up and let them be who they are.
"He probably misses his old glasses."
Yeah, exactly
Carp isn’t going to have value as an outfielder, or anything else. He’s a backup third baseman and a pinch hitter.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 10:58 AM EST up reply actions
if his future is a bench player in the big leagues
I agree.
Now, if he the club believes he can be a starter, then he should continue to get what he can out of AAA.
The Cardinals have done a great job as an Organization for the most part about bring up talent from the minors to the majors, and having that talent make an impact on the roster. So if you step back and look at this move from the player development side, it makes since.
If the Cardinals only believe Carpenter future is nothing but a bench player, (and in my opinion, the second guy off the bench, not the first one up if someone goes down) then they are making the wrong move.
Grit != flat out sucking.
Because he has played 3rd base
How is he supposed to learn to play the other positions well enough without getting the time to do that?
Schumaker didn't get much time to learn second base.
Moving from third base to the outfield is a lot easier than moving from the outfield to second base. Carpenter has been playing baseball his entire life. I think he can catch a flyball.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
just because schumaker didn't get much time to learn second base
doesn’t mean we should repeat the error with Carpenter.
It’s the same argument for moving Craig from outfield to 2nd.
Yes, it is easier (I assume) to go from 3rd to the outfield then say, outfield to 2nd. But with the limited number of PAs and innings that 25th man should get, it makes sense to leave the guy still learning in AAA.
Grit != flat out sucking.
Exactly...
Jocketty did the same exact thing with Miguel Cairo – two year contract. Took PAs from Todd Frazier and others… Jonny Gomes was brought back – he took PAs from Alonso. If a guy like Matt Carp or Chambers or Greene is given 300 PAs and does well, that becomes a nice little trade chip…
Sign Roy O
The problem with MCarp
…is that he’s only played 3rd base in the minors. The Cardinals have talked about transitioning him to the outfield next season to make him more a utility player, but it hasn’t happened yet. His value as a depth bench player would not increase his value as a starting 3rd AAA basemen.
The real concern with Carpenter is that he’s running out of time. He really was the David Freese back-up plan (he still might be), but until he adapts to other positions he really hasn’t played yet, his chances of making the roster even without Skip were pretty thin. He’ll adapt faster in Memphis, where he’ll get more opportunity to play those positions than he would in St. Louis, where he’ll be mostly limited to defensive replacements and pinch hitting with the occasional start. If Freese goes down with injury again, he’ll probably be called up then.
Of course, if they don’t resign Punto, then he does have a legit shot, because I doubt they want Descalso to be the primary 25-man roster back-up for Freese.
The problem is, from an outside view, it's hard to judge how much value a "good clubhouse guy" brings to the team.
I know a lot of stat heads want to vehemently deny it, but if you assume emotional stability does at least somewhat affect on-field performance, then maybe it’s not too terrible. There are worse 25th bench spots than guys batting .285 (or whatever he’ll do this year). If having Skip around keeps a few of the younger guys from going into slumps because of “I got the my-mang-left-me clubhouse blues”, then the difference in value between those avoided slumps and the increased value of Adron Chambers over Skip Shoemaker may not be that different.
Hard to say, I never know what to make of the whole “clubhouse” presence thing. Half the time I want to say it is BS, but then you look at a lot of the major team collapses over the years (take this year’s Red Sox as an example), and when people start asking “What happened?” in interviews, people often seem to point the finger at clubhouse arguments / tensions being what led to poor play from teams who should have been better on paper.
WWCD? CDGAF.
This, with the possible
exception of the incriminating photos theory, probably explains this move. The only good thing about it is that this 2-year deal is only 2/3 the size of the previous 2-year deal. That fact tells me that both the team and the player have a realistic idea of his actual baseball skills.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Dec 14, 2011 9:46 AM EST up reply actions
I actually believe in the "clubhouse culture" theory...
…same as I believe in corporate culture (having experienced great ones, as well as a cancerous one that led to a severe meltdown of the firm). That being said, I just don’t think there is a dearth of culture-carriers in the club house. Obviously Berkman is folksy, frank & awesome; Holliday gives out scholarships for goodness sake; Waino is a treasure; Furcal appears to be an infectious bundle of happiness (and Carp calls him “Furkie!”); Yadi handles the pitching staff beautifully….the list could go on w/Torty, etc. Skip will probably be “fine” (and I hope he hits more game-winning doubles off of Halladay), but I just don’t think he has exclusive rights to the manstew recipe. At the end of the day, hopefully he can contribute w/o blocking oppty for the others already discussed upthread.
by westsidecards on Dec 14, 2011 10:09 AM EST up reply actions
If Schumaker were such a valuable clubhouse guy,
the Cardinals would not have openly attempted to find “a straw to stir the drink” at the 2010 trade deadline and after the 2010 season. If he were such a good leader, why didn’t he lead in 2010?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Why do you equate "good clubhouse guy" and "leader"?
Seem like 2 different things to me.
I agree.
I’m using the terms that have been used to describe Schumaker by Mozeliak and others. By my reading, they are “leader,” “clubhouse presence/guy/whatever,” and “respected.” I don’t equate them, necessarily, but it seems to me that perhaps the respectedness and clubhouse presence and leadership are all intertwined? I don’t know.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
But we already know
from the Pujols negotiations the Cardinals don’t got no respect for any players. So they gotta sign guys who can generate their own respect. It’s perfectly clear!
by MdRedbirdFreak on Dec 14, 2011 11:35 AM EST up reply actions
To repeat my stance on Skip
1.) He is receiving 1.5 Mil a year for two years. At that price point, Mo can DFA him without any real impact to the payroll. Now, before you say Mo won’t do that, just look back to what happened with Franklin. Huge club house guy. The Cardinals even went as far to say “We love you franky” after they clinched a playoff berth.
2.) The only way that this move makes sense for the club stand point, is that they feel Chambers and Carpenter are better served playing everday in AAA. Rather than sitting on the bench waiting for a PH opportunity. Skip had a .311 wOBA against righties last year. While that isn’t something I would call, um, good. It’s enough for him be useful in pinch hitting situations.
Grit != flat out sucking.
Hell at that price they can trade him
The Pirates, Royals, Astros would all take him at that price in a second might even get a prospect out of him. Skip isn’t a MLB starter 2B but neither is Yuniesky and he keeps getting jobs.
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
Boy, Betancourt
did himself a lot of good by somehow appearing to be a half-decent hitter in the 2011 playoffs.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Dec 14, 2011 9:57 AM EST up reply actions
Maybe his body of work will hurt him but hey SF needs a SS
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
What is with the Giants
and their love for offensively-challenged players? You’d think the org that employed Barry Bonds would know better.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Dec 14, 2011 10:02 AM EST up reply actions
They caught lightning in a bottle and decided it was an ethos?
Going into the 2011 counting on a 37 YO Miguel Tejada to play SS is damn near malpractice and is essentially a throwing up the middle finger at that young pitching staff. If they had gone after Boog they would have at least been saying they cared about the way half the game is played.
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
I also don't get why they
didn’t make a play for Pujols.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Dec 14, 2011 10:06 AM EST up reply actions
Busy trying to lock up Timmy and Cain
With Zito and Rowand making what they make it would be hard to find the money in the short term, Reyes was more reasonable and fills a bigger need with Belt and Posey on the team.
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
For me the single most
frustrating part of the Cardinals’ post season was how they pitched to him. I’m pretty sure I could strike him out, but they kept leaving him crap in the zone.
Because Matheny
by WyoCardsFan on Dec 14, 2011 11:38 AM EST up reply actions
.311 woba vs. righties
That is the entire argument against bringing him back.
.311 woba vs righties
Sign Roy O
I agree with your #2
And that is a point I’ve made for years on this board. Unless you feel like Chambers or Carpenter would be SIGNIFICANTLY better than Skip, this year, why stick them on the bench where they won’t get much time? This is more true with Carpenter, as I feel like he can be a ML starter someday, while Chambers is probably a bench guy at the ML level.
Also.....depth.
If you constantly let players like Skip go, and fill your bench and open spots with AAA players, your depth becomes poop. Think of how many MR’s we called up this past year. If all those guys had started out on the ML roster, and we lost a few of them to injuries, there wouldn’t have been much in AAA to call up. It also probably would have caused a couple of guys that belonged in AA, to have been called up prematurely to AAA. It’s a delicate balancing act.
Actually, that .311 wOBA figure is against lefties in 2011, not righties (also, ridiculous small sample size)
His career splits look a lot better: career .338 wOBA against righties, .245 against lefties
by mattybobo on Dec 14, 2011 11:21 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah, it took me a really long time to be sure I was seeing things correctly
I think the fact that he did “better” against lefties must mean he was heavily protected from them in 2011, and experience a small-sample illusion.
Compare that to his career numbers and I'd say that's a fair conclusion.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
RB, I dig Stars being on the playlist. That's a really good song.
I don’t think that the signings of Skip or KMac are necessarily bad moves, I also don’t count them as good moves. I would say they are just moves. Hopefully, Skip plays better than last year, and KMac provides more value as a reliever than a starter.
There appears to be competition for Beltran. If we don’t sign Beltran, who are some other options for us?
Mike Shannon: "That strikeout was brought to you by...by...well, I don't know what it was brought to you by!"
John Rooney: "It wasn't brought to you by anything Mike."
Agreed....
… Just requested some Stars and Frightened Rabbit albums from the local library. Appreciate the music picks as always, as well as the thoughts regarding Schumaker’s waste of a roster spot, even if it’s not a waste of money.
However, maybe the move can be argued as a positive from a utilitarian point of view. I mean, I get some amount of joy from hearing Mike Shannon saying, “Here comes the SHOE man…” Not much, but a little. Compound that by millions of radio listeners, and maybe Cardinal nation gets enough giggles and grins from Schumaker on the roster to make up for some of the $1.5 million salary.
Free Colby
by Oregonian Redbird on Dec 14, 2011 3:21 PM EST up reply actions
I really like that one.
Also, it was the only breakup song I picked specifically because of the sentiment in the middle, which I thought applied nicely to losing our centerpiece.
I’m not sorry I met you
I’m not sorry it’s over
I’m not sorry there’s nothing to say
I can do no wrong, for I do not know what it is.
by the red baron on Dec 15, 2011 2:25 AM EST up reply actions
Depends on the price. At 3/32, I do it, but that's mostly because I'm more or less ok with 2/28.
I don’t think it’s desperate, I think he fits in well with our team.
VEB WINTER MEET-UP DISCUSSION
SIGN PRINCE FIELDER
I agree
It all comes down to money.
Much like Fink, I’m fine with 2/28…so as such I should be ok with 3/35 or below
3 years?
Only if the third year is somehow contingent on Beltran being healthy. Either a team option, mutual option, or something that vests with, say, at least 400 plate appearances in 2012 and 2013
Free Colby
by Oregonian Redbird on Dec 14, 2011 3:29 PM EST up reply actions
Depends on the price
And also I think Coco Crisp would be a good option if Beltran got to expensive.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 10:18 AM EST up reply actions
This is one of the reasons I want to sign Crisp.
Bring back the centerpiece of the Finley trade.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Can someone plesae explain
the love for Coco Crisp, other than decent defense and a catchy name? I keep looking at his numbers and can’t think of anything he would provide for millions that Chambers wouldn’t provide for league minimum. Oh yeah….he hits right handed..woooo!
You'd be signing him to be a bench player.
He is an excellent defender and baserunner. He also has pretty good upside with the bat, especially if used primarily against left-handed pitchers. Chambers is very, very redundant with Jon Jay and now Skip Schumaker. In fact, this is another reason not to sign Skip Schumaker. When do you play him? He hits lefties worse than Jay, our left-handed hitting center fielder, and is so bad with the glove that he shouldn’t take at-bats away from Descalso, our left-handed hitting primary second baseman.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
That was against lefties in 2011 actually.
Yes, Skip hit better against lefties in 2011 than against righties. He was probably heavily platooned more so than we remembered, and lucked into a small-sample “better” line against lefties.
It's baffling to me...
he’s a pretty sucky hitter. He’s 32 so his defense is going to fall apart momentarily. There’s litttle upside. I could see if we were stretching to fit another guy into the budget, but we aren’t.
Sign Roy O
haha?
Over the past three years Crisp has had wRC+ of 100, 127 and 95. During that span he’s averaged 3.7 WAR per 600 PA.
I can’t believe you made me do the math on that, even eyeballing it its obvious Crisp is still a very good player.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 10:52 AM EST up reply actions
It's trending the wrong way...
he could easily be average defensively or worse and post a 270/320/350. This isn’t the worst thing you could have in CF, but to sign him instead of Carlos Beltran is a serious downgrade.
Sign Roy O
You're not being objective
And trends don’t mean anything.
He could post that line, but he’s more likely to post a league average line (.280/.330/.390) and play average defense. That’s a 2.5 WAR player over a full season. So yeah, he’s worse than Beltran, but that’s why I said “Coco Crisp would be a good option if Beltran got too expensive”.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 11:05 AM EST up reply actions
That sounds like Jon Jay...
and he’s not some lefty masher. Jay does okay against lefties. I’d take Cody Ross over Crisp.
Sign Roy O
I'm a Cody Ross fan also
They will both be 32 next year. Over the past 3 seasons, Ross has been worth 5.1 WAR in 1634 PA, with a .305 BABIP and -10 defense total. Crisp has been worth 7 WAR in 1126 PA with a .284 BABIP and +6.6 defense total.
Like I said, objectively, Crisp projects to be the far better player.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 11:15 AM EST up reply actions
Ross does one specific thing well...
restrict his usage to that one thing and he’s more useful than Crisp imo…
Sign Roy O
Well if we're signing one of those guys in place of Beltran, they are going to be getting a lot of playing time
not just against lefties.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 11:20 AM EST up reply actions
I'd rather have Crisp because he is both a plus defender in CF and a plus baserunner.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
What do you think the probability is that he's no longer a plus defender?
By UZR he was actually negative in last two full(ish) seasons and strongly positive in partial seasons. Given that he’s well past the typical age when guys peak defensively, seems like he might not be that great defensively.
On the other hand we’re sure Ross can crush lefties…
Sign Roy O
He could be.
He has some injury concerns, which I believe may have hurt his defense because he played partially injured. Cutting down on his workload by employing him as a part-time player could remedy that and see a renaissance of his defense. Or, he could just be aging and never be the defender he once was. Even so, he’s still a better defender than Schumaker.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Yeah, if we don't get Beltran
I’d be much more interested in signing a Crisp or Ross type to more or less platoon with Jay after Craig comes back and also provide some defensive back-up at the other outfield spots.
can the third year be just a personal service contract?
Grit != flat out sucking.
by Evilfrog on Dec 14, 2011 10:33 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
We shouldn't be.
I still think we could get Cody Ross on a one year deal with an option for about $5M or so.
Ross vs. LHP (Career): .282/.349.563/.912; .384 wOBA in 759 PA’s
Jon Jav vs. RHP (Career): 299/.348/.436/.784; .343 wOBA in 646 PA’s
Together, that’s not a bad platoon. Both of those guys can play average defense in CF.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
what is this unbearable cuteness
i now want one
"I still don’t understand what commercial is better than having me on tv" – Chris Carpenter
2011: Boog would've count 78
Awesome... simply awesome!
"I don't know, but it works. Doin it for Torty works... He brings us luck and we're gonna roll with it." Allen Craig
I agree. It's about the roster spot, not the money.
Also, if the Cards’ re-sign Skip and let Punto go, from a “clubhouse continuity” perspective wouldn’t that be similar to re-signing Punto and letting Skip walk?
#HappySeason #SadOffSeason
by The Continental on Dec 14, 2011 10:38 AM EST reply actions
Yep.
From what I saw in 2011, in addition to being a better glove, Punto also appeared to be a really fun guy, always on the top step, shredding shirts, etc. Skip is earnest. I’ll bet fun is worth more to the clubhouse than earnestness.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Dec 14, 2011 10:42 AM EST up reply actions
hmmm maybe?
“I’ll bet fun is worth more to the clubhouse than earnestness.”
I don’t know. I suppose it depends on how many “fun” guys vs “earnest” guys are already on the team. I’d rather have Punto than Skip solely for the defense. I think personality-wise neither guy hurts the club any or adds all that much to it
11 in '11!! To Infinity and Beyond!!! ...
Skippy and KMac
Good post. It is tempting to say that if he signing of Skippy and KMac are the Cardinals biggest problems going forward in year 1 AP, that ain’t a bad thing. On the other hand, those signings speak exactly to the problem The Cardinals have in a post Pujols world. The idea of putting together a roster of supporting players like these two guys worked well when the other guys included Albert. With the big guy gone, El Birdos need a new paradigm. They need, for one, to construct a roster with supporting players with reasonable possible upside, gleaned from either the organization or outside. Skippy and KMac, although cheap, are not in this class and they take up two spots on the roster. It’s a problem.
Sorry in advance
@JoeStrauss: It’s that time of year when those w/o a HOF vote start preaching to those w/one. Initially entertaining. Eventually rather pathetic.
@JoeStrauss: Here we go. RT @craigcalcaterra: @JoeStrauss: Because so many people with a Hall of Fame vote have such specialized expertise in the area?
it's that time of year
when those with a HOF vote start bitching about those wo/one preaching to those w/one. Not really entertaining at all, just pathetic.
Grit != flat out sucking.
by Evilfrog on Dec 14, 2011 11:03 AM EST up reply actions 4 recs
Don't pollute a perfectly good thread...
I bet you’re the guy who pukes all over the couch at a quarter to midnight on New Year’s…
Sign Roy O
"Initially entertaining. Eventually rather pathetic."
That sums it up rather nicely, Joe. Oh, you weren’t talking about your schtick?
"He probably misses his old glasses."
How the fuck does that dickweed have a vote?
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 11:07 AM EST up reply actions
please tell me that asshat doesn't have a vote
"I still don’t understand what commercial is better than having me on tv" – Chris Carpenter
2011: Boog would've count 78
i'm sorry
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 11:15 AM EST up reply actions
so does the guy who put Albert 8th in the MVP in 08
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
Tom Haudricourt?
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 11:18 AM EST up reply actions
I believe so
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
I remember getting into a big argument on his site about that in 2008
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 11:24 AM EST up reply actions
Hmm...
actually I mis-remembered, I don’t recognize any of these posts as mine.
http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/34594194.html#!page=1&viewAll=1&sort=function sort() { [native code] }
I do see a danup and a adieuordie.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 11:27 AM EST up reply actions
yes, although I think it might have been seventh
either way, he put three first basemen ahead of Pujols and three Brewers in the top 10. Why do people like this, who so zealously wear their ass upon their head, get to vote?
my favorite words are goodbye and my favorite color is red
I appreciate folks posting Strauss tweets.
It reminds me of why I don’t follow him on Twitter.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
indulge!
@JoeStrauss: The best reaction is when those who dish the condescension see it come back. As w/ postseason awards, it’s really about Ballot Envy
#notevenahumblebrag
I enjoyed Torty's interaction with Strauss.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Refresh my memory plz
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
Here's the back-and-forth.
@JoeStrauss:
@TortyCraig definitely not an October player. #FastballGone
@TortyCraig:
Are you likening me to Kyle McClellan? RT @JoeStrauss @TortyCraig definitely not an October player. #FastballGone
@MatthewHLeach:
@TortyCraig There’s the high heat!
[Leach quickly deleted.]
@JoeStrauss:
@TortyCraig Turning mean, I see. Seat on team charter may be in jeopardy.
@TortyCraig:
@JoeStrauss Not meant to be mean. Just going by the facts as they were reported in the Post-Dispatch & asking for clarification.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Aw snizzap
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
HAH
how did i miss that
Sign Hong-Chih Kuo
by tehzachatak on Dec 14, 2011 12:21 PM EST up reply actions
Joe Strausses HOF or Post season award vote
is similar to watching a 16 get the keys to a Ferrari on My Super Sweet Sixteen here is a person doomed to perpetual adolescence being handed something they don’t understand, they will never get the most out of, don’t respect enough to learn how maximise and are snotty to everyone else because they think they are entitled to it.
Have fun finding an audience when it is just your wit and charm that draws them in Joe!
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
Did you see that massive pileup of ferraris in Japan?
It was a chain reaction crash consisting entirely of one ferrari club…
Sign Roy O
and a prius at the wrong place at the wrong time
by CarpIsMyManCrush on Dec 14, 2011 11:39 AM EST up reply actions
you mean the soon to be richest prius owner in the world?
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
I feel like Joe
is actually a pretty smart guy, and knows baseball pretty well. He’s just an asshole and knows how to stir shit up.
Because Matheny
by WyoCardsFan on Dec 14, 2011 11:51 AM EST up reply actions
I don't put him squarely in the Tim Raines doesn't belong on my ballot types
but he is certainly disrespectful of his role in representing baseball fans.
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
I don't need to be reminded of why I don't follow Joe Strauss on Twitter.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
Meh
I don’t see the love for Adron Chambers, personally, and don’t think that it’s a safe bet that he will provide more value than Skippy in 2011. Making the jump from AAA to the majors is hard, and it’s not like a 277/368/415 line in AAA is overwhelming or anything. In fact, it translates to a wRC+ of 96 which is decidedly underwhelming.
If you want to criticize the Skippy signing, criticize the lack of better free agent signings, like Coco Crisp or maybe Cody Ross (as indicated above), but I doubt anyone is losing any sleep from giving Adron Chambers a chance to master AAA if he indeed has that ability.
As for KMac, that’s less defensible IMHO, but at the additional $1.5M or so that K-Mac will cost the team over a major-league minimum salary, it’s not a killer.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Dec 14, 2011 11:08 AM EST reply actions
Skip Schumaker's 2011 wRC+ was 89. In 2010, his wRC+ was 84.
Who do you think is the better defender?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
It is a legitimate question how well Chambers' offense would translate to the majors, though
He could easily hit as badly as Skip. Well, maybe that’s going too far, I dunno.
yeah, i was going to say this
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 11:37 AM EST up reply actions
SouthSide's point of how underwhelming Chambers' offense is seems legit to me
But Chambers can at least be trusted with outfield defense (I think) and is fast or something (I think).
yeah i don't know anything about chambers, i doubt he's worse than skip though
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 11:39 AM EST up reply actions
I also doubt it
Chambers is at least still young while Skip is no longer young. Chambers will be entering his age 25 year, Schumaker his age 32 year. That’s as old as Pujols and Holliday.
It doesn't matter how good he is, Rally Adron's powers will win us another WS

I am a college student that sleeps with a St. Louis Cardinals Fredbird Pillow Pet, and I am proud of it.
I guess I just assumed it was an MLE.
Although that wouldn’t make sense because Chambers did not have impressive numbers at Memphis, as I remember it. Nonetheless, it isn’t so much Schumaker vs. Chambers as it is Schumaker vs. all alternatives. I know I’d much rather have a viable defensive outfielder for CF, LF, and RF than Schumaker.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Right, I didn't mean to nitpick or anything, I just want to be ready for Chambers' possibly-bad offense.
I still think he, and the other alternative, have more to offer than Schumaker.
And the alternatives probably have a higher potential upside, too.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Which, as I re-read your comment, is probably what you're saying.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Yeah
Chambers might have room for improvement, and he’s (probably) a good pinch runner option, and he could probably play better outfield defense than Skip. He has actual skills.
I hate to beat the dead horse yet again… but I just don’t see what tangible on-field skill Skip brings to the table, even as a bench player.
If the Schu roster spot is in the top 4 OFs on your roster I agree
As the 5th OF, that strikes me as less important.
Of course, if your top 4 OFs are Holliday, Jay, Bletran, Craig, you don’t even have one guy who can play a plus defensive CF IMHO.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Dec 14, 2011 11:55 AM EST up reply actions
I don't actually know anything about Chambers' defense, so I should be up front about that
Does the community think he could play center?
That's what he came up through the system as.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Cool
So he at least can play there. Somehow I kept overlooking that when I saw his stat page so I couldn’t actually remember what his primary position was in the minors. Anybody know how good he is?
Wait, Chambers?
He’s like, plus to plus-plus in center.
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
I think. . .
it’s pretty safe to assume that he can play CF better than Schu, and has probably a 50/50 chance of playing CF better than Jay.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Dec 14, 2011 12:01 PM EST up reply actions
I think Chambers is probably better than any other CF option defensively.
Jay is probably the better player when we take offense into account.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
This all kind of dampens any possible enthusiasm I would have for getting Crisp in a non-Beltran scenario
Although, at least Crisp is a switch hitter.
Chambers is very redundant to Jay because they both hit left-handed.
If Chamber were right-handed, he’s be a perfect platoon partner for Jay.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Chambers should be the all-around defensive backup 5th OF.
But that is Schumaker. Chambers, along with Descalso and Jay, make three current members of the 40-man roster that bring similar profiles to the team as Schumaker and who also have better skill sets. Signing him was such an inexplicable decision.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I assume he'll probably be returned,
but what about this Komatsu guy? Is there anything valuable about him?
Because Matheny
by WyoCardsFan on Dec 14, 2011 12:18 PM EST up reply actions
Komatsu hits left-handed--probably better than Schumaker.
He plays defense poorly—better than Schumaker but not as well as Jay or Chambers so there is not much need for him either.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Komatsu hasn't played above AA
I’m guessing the Cards just give the Nationals some cash to keep him and put him in Memphis.
by Cheeseandcorn on Dec 14, 2011 12:21 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah he seemed like a possibly-useful guy to get for little cost in the Rule 5 draft
It sucks, but I eventually figured out that there usually isn’t much of substance that comes out of the rule 5 draft. Ah well.
That's not how the Rule 5 draft works.
Komatsu has to be on the MLB roster for an entire season or he is returned to his original team. I suspect Komatsu gets returned to the Nationals.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Deals like that have been done for Rule 5 guys before, right?
#HappySeason #SadOffSeason
by The Continental on Dec 14, 2011 12:26 PM EST up reply actions
I'm unaware of a straight cash for player deal.
It’s certainly possible, though.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Yeah, I shouldn't have specifically said cash
Probably more likely a trade for a lesser player, like in this deal.
by Cheeseandcorn on Dec 14, 2011 12:32 PM EST up reply actions
I think they
have to work out a trade with the former team, and then can do whatever they want with him.
Because Matheny
by WyoCardsFan on Dec 14, 2011 12:27 PM EST up reply actions
McDonalds DVD
Hey can any of you tell me the McDonald’s World Series DVD is worth it? Is it comparable to the one MLB puts out? They’re not the same are they?
CliffNotes: "My Dad wanted me to be a baseball player!"
Roy Hobbs: "The Natural"
Only notes I've seen on the web
are positive. I’ve ordered one, but it’s not here yet.
If the Cardinals sign Beltran, and Craig is healthy
Who is the fifth Bench player.
Assuming Beltran in CF and Craig in RF, and Greene at 2nd, that leaves you with a bench of:
Jay (OF Utility)
Schumaker (OF/2nd Utility)
Descalso (IF Utility)
Anderson/Cruz
Who is the fifth player? Hamilton since he can play 1st and OF? Also, that bench is heavily left handed. Granted, on days where Descalso starts at 2nd, and Jay starts in CF, the bench becomes more right handed, but it definitely seems that the 5th bench player needs to be a right handed hitter.
Shredder, I hope.
Also, Descalso is the primary second baseman. Greene is definitely on the bench.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I think the plan of Descalso as the primary 2nd baseman while Greene manned SS
Was assuming Pujols signed. Now that he has left, has Mo come out and said that Descalso is still the 2nd baseman? I’m guessing it will be a competition thing in Spring Training.
Yeah.
Mozeliak has been pretty consistent projecting Descalso as the primary second baseman. I’d bet Descalso starts vs. RHP and Greene vs. LHP.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I've read many of those quotes on Descalso at 2nd
It just seems like they were all pre-Pujols-defection, and Pre-Furcal signing. I would actually like to listen to the BJ rains interview with Greene from yesterday.
He was pretty consistent
with Greene as starting SS. Has he talked about Descalso since the Furcal signing?
Because Matheny
by WyoCardsFan on Dec 14, 2011 11:53 AM EST up reply actions
No way Komatsu or Hamilton make this team...
You can’t have an entirely lefthanded bench. They might carry Cruz and Anderson, but that leaves Cruz as the only bench righty.
Sign Roy O
if the Cardinal signs Beltran
The roster would look like this
LF Holliday
CF Jay
RF Craig
4th OFer Beltran
5th OFer Skip
So I don’t have Jay on the bench at all
Bench:
Beltran
Skip
Anderson
Descalso
I have greene starting at second, however, if it plays out differen’t in spring just switch Dirty D and Greene.
So the fifth bench player is Matt Stairs???
Grit != flat out sucking.
We have to have a RHH somewhere on the bench.
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
Yeah, I have a Twitter...big whoop...wanna fight about it?
Fair enough
but I would like to see an everyday lineup of:
Furcal – S
Beltran – S
Holliday – R
Berk – S
Craig – R
Freese – R
Yadi – R
Greene – R
so that leaves no RH on the bench
Jay – L
Dan – L
Anderson – L
Skip – L
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
Yeah, I have a Twitter...big whoop...wanna fight about it?
Is the left side
Beltran’s power side?
Because Matheny
by WyoCardsFan on Dec 14, 2011 12:04 PM EST up reply actions
According to his career splits
His ISO is better as a lefty, but he’s still a pretty darn good hitter as a righty.
In fact, Fangraphs is telling me his career wOBA splits like this
hitting righty against lefties: .384
hitting lefty against rightie : .370
I really like that lineup
Cruz could be the backup C and is a RHB.
Looks like MCarp, Hamilton, Koz, Komatsu, Chambers, etc. are fighting for that last bench spot.
Really hope we sign Beltran to a not-horrible deal.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Dec 14, 2011 6:05 PM EST up reply actions
There is no way in hell the Cardinals will be signing Beltran to be a 4th OFer
Beltran already said he wants to play nearly every day. Plus, Jay is clearly more suited as a 4th OFer
disagree there
Jay is your starter in CFer. I believe bgh had a break down on how many starts Beltran would get as a 4th outfielder. It was a pretty large amount. Between starting until Craig comes back, starting in CF against lefties, giving Holliday the spot start, and starting in RF when with Craig moving to first for Berkman’s days off.
Grit != flat out sucking.
About that
Craig has already gone on record once saying he hopes to be ready by opening day. Maybe it is ridiculous optimism, but we clearly don’t know yet how much time, if any, he misses.
You don’t sign Beltran unless you plan for him to get full-time at bats. Basically 145+ games barring injury.
Jay should absolutely be the odd man out in the situation. If they plan on leaving Jay in CF fulltime there is no way you pay 10+Mil for Beltran.
I agree. Unless Beltran
is either hurt or can no longer hit anything like he did in 2011, he’s your starting CF once Craig comes back.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Dec 14, 2011 11:38 AM EST up reply actions
Beltran isn't capable of giving you full-time at-bats.
He is going to start when he is healthy, and that won’t be all the time, but he will be great in that time.
"Congratulations to the Cardinals! Such a fun world series." - Salman Rushdie
I think the OF would be pretty much
Holliday
Beltran/Jay
Craig/Beltran
"He probably misses his old glasses."
by Alxfritz on Dec 14, 2011 11:21 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I think there's a good chance Beltran would play center
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 11:21 AM EST up reply actions
Beltran on the bench?
there’s no way they sign Beltran to be a bench player, especially with several other teams involved. He’ll split time with Jay in CF and Craig in RF and probably play 1b on occasion.
11 in '11!! To Infinity and Beyond!!! ...
spilt time with Jay in CF and Craig in RF
sure sounds like a 4th outfielder to me.
Grit != flat out sucking.
Lets see
Beltran……1/2 time in CF + 1/2 in RF = full time
Jay….1/2 time in CF = part time
Who would be the 4th OFer? Surely not the full time guy
The problem with that is...
Jay is better defensively and will start against almost all RH. The Cards will face more RH than LH so therefore…
Jay…2/3 time in CF = not full time
Craig…2/3 outfield 1/5 1B = close to full time
Beltran…2/3 time = not full time
Beltran wouldn’t be a full time player, and that is why I’m with those who are on the platoon situation in CF (and try to upgrade at 2B…IMO).
Craig will not be playing 1/5 time at 1st
unless Berkman gets hurt. Berkman will be playing 90+% of the games there.
The simple truth is this…if the Cardinals sign Beltran and pay him 10+Mil/year, they are signing him to be a fulltime player.
agreed
and of course we’ve already got one guy in the OF/1b mix hurt and are likely to have other injuries surface over the course of the season, so he’d be playing plenty. The best scenario is he somehow proves capable in CF again and Jay is the 4th OFer (not that I’m betting on Beltran magically getting his range back).
Plus, Beltran isn’t signing with a team that doesn’t assure him of a starting gig
11 in '11!! To Infinity and Beyond!!! ...
Which is why I'm not really on this bandwagon
I don’t think he will prove to be a capable CF, and as such he is just a nice additional RF/LF option. Don’t get me wrong, I think we could stick him out there to play a few games, but not as a regular CF. As such we are paying the dude 10 mil to have him steal AB’s from Craig over 2 or 3 years.
I’m not opposed to them getting Beltran, but if the Cards do I don’t think you can just pencil him in to CF. Obviously, you are always better off when you can acquire a talent like Beltran, however I’d hate to see Craig pulled from a regular time in RF.
Again, I think legit CF or improve 2B through trade.
And if Carlos Beltran is being pitched this scenario,
Carlos Beltran will sign somewhere that will let him play everyday.
See, TLR might be able to get away with this shit with veteran players, but Matheny won’t, because he doesn’t have 2500 wins and 30 years in the manager’s office.
If we sign Beltran, he’s going to play everyday in CF. Mark it down. Jay becomes the 4th outfielder/platoon partner with Allen Craig, and occasionally replaces Beltran defensively in the late innings.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
Way, way OT, but I thought I'd pass this along.
Have you folks seen these Firefly posters in the art nouveau style?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Pretty sure my wife does...
#HappySeason #SadOffSeason
by The Continental on Dec 14, 2011 11:45 AM EST up reply actions
Hadn't seen all of them yet
My sister got me Stargate coasters from that company. Stable wormholes are pretty useful.
They're on Fangraphs for some players
Or you could calculate it out yourself
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
well email got hacked again
apologies to any VEBers who received spam from me.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
Bro you gotta start using private browsing for porn
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
by mysterui on Dec 14, 2011 11:39 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
WHAT THE FUCK LUHNOW HOW DID YOU DO THIS
@Ken_Rosenthal: Source: Lowrie, Weiland from #RedSox to #Astros for Melancon. #MLB
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
Is that bad?
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 11:48 AM EST up reply actions
Melancon was the last closer standing in the Astros bullpen, I believe.
I know nothing about Weiland.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Sickels had him as the #16 prospect
16) Kyle Weiland, RHP, Grade C+: Got knocked around in major league trial, has the stuff to be a four/five starter if he improves his location. Like Wilson, he could end up in relief.
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
So, Luhnow got a good-hitting infielder and a potential back-of-the-rotation starter for a pseudo-closer.
Nice work.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
has Mo made a move better than that?
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 11:57 AM EST up reply actions
He signed Berkman for $8M
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
Which was what, like 4 million expected surplus value?
I think this trade is a lot more than that.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 11:58 AM EST up reply actions
Yup
Continuing to ignore “marginal utility to the team” as a value principle.
You are soooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo predictable.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
that still doesn't mean it was a better deal
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 1:14 PM EST up reply actions
Hmmmmmm.
Maybe. I value well negotiated free agent signings and buyouts of arbitration years over trades where you ass rape the other team. Mainly because the latter case usually involves a stupid GM on the other side of the trade.
Unfortunately, most of the stupid GM’s in the past decade HAVE BEEN IN OUR OWN DIVISION.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
I don't know what you mean by the thing in all caps
I’m just talking about surplus value.
Mo and Luhnow can’t control where they fall on the marginal win curve, so I’m not going to give Mo credit just because the Cards were projected at 88 wins before Berkman signed.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 1:19 PM EST up reply actions
But you consistently negate that "surplus value"
is also impacted by the marginal utility of the traded player to the team acquiring him.
There’s a reason why there aren’t prospect for prospect trades: Very little marginal utility to either team. There’s a reason why prospects are traded for veteran star players all the time despite the fact that the team acquiring the star player nearly always gives up surplus value: marginal utility to the team. The team acquiring that star player believes that the marginal utility value of that player right now is a reasonable value for giving up the utility and projection of surplus value in the future.
You whine about EVERY trade made in this fashion and how the team giving up prospects is getting fucked. Every time. It’s annoying to see someone so smart not look at this situation and think: “There must be a reason why this happens…” and not come up with the answer of “I must just be smarter than everyone else”.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
I didn't disagree with any of that
Berkman signed for 1 year 8 million, he projected to be a 2.5-3 WAR player. He replaced a combination of Craig, Chambers, Jay, whatever – lets say about 1 WAR. So the Cardinals “marginal utility” of Berkman was about 1.5 WAR for 8 million.
The Astros should be getting about 9 total WAR out of Lowrie over the next 4 years – 3 WAR for Melancon. And he’ll cost maybe 8 million total in arbitration. So that’s 6 WAR for 8 million.
Now I agree that wins now are more important than wins later. I also agree that playoff odds matter when discussing a trade.
But that has nothing to do with the “skill” involved in a trade.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 1:34 PM EST up reply actions
Explain what "skill" we're talking about here.
Valuing players? Fucking over another GM? The art of the deal?
I mean, as I alluded to earlier, it seems far easier to fuck over bad GM’s, but even bad GM’s avoid intra-division trades (and sometimes intra-state trades) so the Cardinals have been basically voided of dealing with Ed Wade, Jim Hendry, anyone in Milwaukee, and Dayton Moore for the better part of the last decade.
When 75% of the bad GM’s in baseball won’t trade with you, it’s awful hard to fuck them over, that’s all I’m saying.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
What I mean
is that a GM’s main job is to increase the amount of wins he can get each year given his payroll restraints. he can do that in any way he wants, screwing over bad GM’s is a very good and efficient way of doing that. Maybe you have a point about the sample from which mozeliak and luhnow can tap, but i don’t think GM’s 100% avoid intra-divisional trades, so you can’t completely take that out of the equation.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 1:42 PM EST up reply actions
Is that really his main job?
What I mean is that a GM’s main job is to increase the amount of wins he can get each year given his payroll restraints.
I’m honestly asking. Because if I was an owner, this is not how I would define his job. Defining it in this manner leads to Jim Hendry.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
alright, i disagree with the hendry comment
but i’m not going to argue anymore.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 1:58 PM EST up reply actions
Why?
If the goal is to maximize the marginal wins each season, that leads your GM to trade future value for present value NEARLY ALL THE TIME.
You have to have a better mission statement than that. Because if you don’t, you end up with what the Cubs have done, which is destroy their farm system to try and win each year. And the Rays were happy to help them do so.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
no, balancing future and present value is important I agree
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 2:02 PM EST up reply actions
We both agree on that
but your mission statement above doesn’t reference that point at all. Which is why everything is not so black and white, cut and dry. It’s hard to operate with those type of parameters.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
but it's still easy to see that the Lowrie trade was better for the Astros than the Berkman signing was for us
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 2:16 PM EST up reply actions
Sure
But why are we comparing one to the other? What’s the point of the exercise?
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
to see who is a better gm
at least, in that area.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 2:50 PM EST up reply actions
From one trade?
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
no, obviously, i wasn't making a conclusive statement
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 3:01 PM EST up reply actions
It's easy to argue the way you do on paper....
but when you have to apply those principles to real world situations, the logic gets a lot more murky, because you can’t just dictate to everyone like you do on here.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
And...
Maybe you have a point about the sample from which mozeliak and luhnow can tap, but i don’t think GM’s 100% avoid intra-divisional trades, so you can’t completely take that out of the equation.
I’d really like you to go look and see how many intra-divisional trades happen vs. how many other trades happen. I would guess that fewer than 10% of all trades within the last 15 years (since the current divisions were put in place) have been between division rivals.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
why don't you go look and report the numbers here
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 2:01 PM EST up reply actions
Because I'm not the one challenging the assertion, that's why.
This is pretty common knowledge, actually. You seem to be asserting that it’s incorrect. So, well, prove it.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
Nit-picking math check
If you were to randomly pair up teams as trading partners, only 14% of the trades would be intra-divisional. As such, 10% wouldn’t seem to suggest a particularly strong effect.
It may be common knowledge that intradivision trades don’t happen, but people are generally really bad at evaluating skewed distributions like this, so I wouldn’t place much stock in it.
by brackenthebox on Dec 14, 2011 2:20 PM EST up reply actions
Even if it is a small effect
It’s still pretty huge if three or four of the guys you can fleece don’t want to deal with you because you play them every season.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
my point is that someone needs to actually look at the numbers
because humans are awful at determining the difference between 10 and 15%
To even get statistical significance (<0.05) on that kind of difference you need to consider 130+ trades.
by brackenthebox on Dec 14, 2011 2:48 PM EST up reply actions
and for the record
I’m pretty sure that on balance, being in a division filled with dumb GMs is a net benefit.
by brackenthebox on Dec 14, 2011 2:52 PM EST up reply actions
for sure
I was fine with the Cards not getting the opportunity to trade much with Hendry and Wade. The benefit of facing their teams on the field made up for it.
Because Matheny
Oh, no doubt that it is
I’m just saying that most of the trades where one team fleeces the other are made by really poor GM’s who don’t evaluate their talent properly (VEP would give one John Mozeliak as an example of this). Jim Hendry isn’t making trades with the Cardinals and the Cardinals in turn, probably aren’t making trades with the Cubs. While that’s good for us on the field, it’s bad for us in terms of fleecing other GM’s.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
you speak the trueth
because humans are awful at determining the difference between 10 and 15%
To even get statistical significance (<0.05) on that kind of difference you need to consider 130+ trades.
My wife will automaticily round $285.00 to $295.00 and $305.00 to $300. I mean, she is frugal with money, so that’s okay most of the time. But still, it baffles me sometimes.
Grit != flat out sucking.
every additional win for a player
ends up costing more. for example, teams are typically willing to spend more $/war on one 10 war players than they are on two 5 war players. i’m also not sure where you get 9 war over 4 years for lowrie. to me that seems pretty optimistic. i think the furcal signing is better than this trade, though it’s really hard to compare since the cardinals are contenders and the astros aren’t and perhaps wouldn’t even look into signing someone like furcal. i’m not saying luhnow didn’t do a great job on the deal, but it seems a bit overstated to me here.
is this true?
teams are typically willing to spend more $/war on one 10 war players than they are on two 5 war players
i’m not saying it isn’t true, just that I don’t recall it being shown
what i really mean is
top players require longer contracts over which they’ll be overpaid, so to obtain such a player you’ll have to pay more for him over his contract, ala albert. people won’t go so far above and beyond for a merely good player.
eh, maybe not
just my impression. but i would’ve guessed that the longer the contract the worse it ends for teams, and typically only top players get really long contracts.
i could buy that..
but certainly there are a lot of 1- and 2-year deals that don’t work out well at all.
i have just only ever seen that $/war is spent linearly – doesn’t disprove your point though.
no it's not true, all studies have shown that teams spend money linearly
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 4:13 PM EST up reply actions
all the ones i've seen
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 4:15 PM EST up reply actions
this is likely true
many of them presumably failed to comment on the matter
by brackenthebox on Dec 14, 2011 4:17 PM EST up reply actions
Perhaps the Red Sox feel that Lawrie doesn't add any value to their team
because he’s not going to play. At that point, they should shop around for the best value they can find for him.
Do I think Melancon was the best value? No, I don’t. However, Boston clearly thinks that he will provide them with more value than Jed Lowrie will next year.
Oh, and Bill James is projecting him at .341 wOBA for next year, so maybe we should temper those expectations JUST a little bit, eh? James always has inflated value for hitters.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
It was a great value for the Astros
I’m not saying anything about the Red Sox.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 1:20 PM EST up reply actions
Sure it is.
Would you have traded Jason Motte for those two players?
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
Yes
Because A) Lowrie can play second and B) Lowrie has more trade value than Motte.
But the GM’s job is to increase wins. Houston replacing their 0 WAR shortstops with a 2 WAR one for the next 4 years brings a greater increase in wins per $ than any move Mo has made.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 1:36 PM EST up reply actions
So, why didn't this happen?
Is it because Mo is a bad GM? Because that’s what you seem to be alluding to.
Also, we should have fired Mo and hired Luhnow? Because that’s the other thing you seem to be alluding to.
I just want to get these things on the record, because you’re dancing around these points pretty clearly in this thread.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
I don't think Mo is a bad GM, I think he's a slightly above average GM
And given how shitty the average GM is, that isn’t that good.
I’ve established that I think Luhnow will be a better GM than Mo.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 1:43 PM EST up reply actions
Good.
Now, you realize that the organization can’t replace Mozeliak with Luhnow in 2011, right? You do know the reasons why that can’t happen? That there are ramifications for making that decision that might be worse for the general state of the organization at this time?
You seem to live in a world where someone always has to lose one side of a deal. I do think the Cardinals lose by no longer having the services of Jeff Luhnow. However, Mozeliak brought Luhnow into the organization and I think he’s competent enough to find another person who can fill that role. So if the choice is Luhnow or Moz, I choose Moz and wish Luhnow well.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
Like what?
That there are ramifications for making that decision that might be worse for the general state of the organization at this time?
And how can you say that those counterract that difference in ability between Mo and Luhnow?
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 2:07 PM EST up reply actions
I don't have time to teach you principles of management
You’ll just need to take a course on it at community college or something. Start with Maslow and work your way to Jeffords.
Plus, you’ll just nitpick everything to death anyway, so what the fuck is the point. You can’t possibly be wrong, even when you don’t know what the hell you’re talking about or have no experience managing people.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
With regards to relievers, no way
We release and pay closers, not sell high.
Kumar: I don't know man, I lose my touch, man.
Dignan: Did you ever have a touch to lose, man?
that was not a good move
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 1:03 PM EST up reply actions
You're still sticking to that huh?
Ok….
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
BGH will back me up
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 1:14 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe
But this move looks better and better and better and better each and every day.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
no it doesn't
the signing looks better. the intial trade still looks meh. and the two had nothing to do with eachother.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 1:37 PM EST up reply actions
I said NOTHING about the signing
NOTHING. ZERO. NADA. ZILCH. So why bring that up? I’m talking specifically about the trade itself:
Matt Holliday provided 2.6 WAR from the time of the trade to the end of the ’09 season. In the next TWO FULL SEASONS the guys we sent back in that trade (Wallace, Mortenson, Peterson) have accounted for exactly – 0.2 WAR at the major league level. Not to mention that none of the players we traded get on the field for us except for maybe Mortenson as a bullpen pitcher in 2010.
Hindsight isn’t totally 20/20, and you can rationalize this fucking thing any way you want. But there’s absolutely, unequivocally no reason to keep busting the balls of that trade when it’s clear that we got the best end of it.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
I have no idea why you are using hindsight at all
The only thing that matters in a trade is what you can project based off the information at the time. We traded Wallace for less than he was worth at the time.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 1:51 PM EST up reply actions
No
LESS THAN VEP THOUGHT HE WAS WORTH AT THE TIME.
There’s a really distinct difference between those two things. And, it turns out, that we had Wallace valued correctly, and got the very best piece on the trade market, that happened to fit our club perfectly.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
by fourstick on Dec 14, 2011 2:06 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
i don't my valuation, which was in the same range as everyone elses at the time
was too far off from the truth.
You seem to think that what happened after means anything. that’s just one of a million possible iterations.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 2:08 PM EST up reply actions
Possibly the Cardinals knew something other teams didn't.
Like Wallaces ability to play 3B and hit for power? Hmmmmmmm. Possibly. Maybe Wallace’s market value wasn’t what “everyone” thought it was. Mostly due to the “everyone” you speak about having FUCK ALL to do with negotiating trades. They just sit back and criticize.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
by fourstick on Dec 14, 2011 2:18 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
This is a fucking idiotic argument in which you can never be wrong.
So if the three players that we traded never amount to jack shit you’re still right? That’s fucking ludicrous, and you know it.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
while i disagree with VEP, and i think you are largely correct here
i don’t think his characterization of the trade is “ludicrous”- he just had the package we traded for Holliday pegged at a higher value than Holliday, and OF COURSE nothing since the trade happens will have changed that opinion, or by definition he’s inconsistent with himself.
Sign Hong-Chih Kuo
by tehzachatak on Dec 14, 2011 2:09 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
It's not his characterization of the trade I have a problem with
It’s the fact that nothing that occurs after the trade itself matters at all. So, by extension, VEP’s original valuation of the trade can never be wrong. It will always be right, even if the three players we traded were arrested for running a drug ring 3 days after the trade and our front office knew about it the whole time. Since it occurred after the trade, VEP is still right.
If he thinks that this kind of rationale will stand up the first time he totally fucks up a deal for his future employer, he’s pretty much dead wrong on that front. “But, but, but, I was RIGHT at the time of the trade, boss!!!” “Doesn’t matter, the deal was bad for us, now go clean out your desk”.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
This is especially negligent
when you consider that his valuation:
- Doesn’t present or reflect all the relevant information
- Is based on the fallacy that we could acquire other, better, more valuable players with a different trade.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
i'm just not sure what you're asking for
acceptance that his initial valuation was wrong? it seems to me that he could be correct in his valuation of the trade initially and have the results pan out this way- i don’t think that’s a reason to change his thinking. sometimes proper, logical thinking does not lead to the proper outcomes.
Sign Hong-Chih Kuo
Thing is,
his method of thinking has been disproven a number of times involving prospect for player trades. But instead of looking at the methodology of his valuations and adjusting accordingly, he concocts this doozy of a rationalization for his methods in which he can never be wrong. That he has no control over what happens and that he never has to account for anything that happens afterward.
Metaphorically, how would this work at your job every day? There are no consequences!!!! If you value something as a net positive or net negative and can put together a spreadsheet proving your point, then it doesn’t matter what happens afterward because YOU are RIGHT. There’s no need for contingencies. You’re just correct. Despite evidence to the contrary. Despite incorrect assumptions in your original model.
Making this claim is implying that his initial valuation was perfect, and never needs to be adjusted due to the fact that he can’t control outcomes.
This, from the same person that uses projection systems. I mean, really, it’s absurd
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
...
So if the three Ferrari’s you sold for a burrito never amounted to jack because they were blown up by a suicide bomber, you’re still right?
That’s fucking ludicrous.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 2:11 PM EST up reply actions
Uh-huh
Because that’s a relevant comparison.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
it's the exact same thing you are arguing
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 2:20 PM EST up reply actions
No it's not
It’s you going to an illogical extreme again.
Point is, what matters after the fact certainly matters. I don’t care how many iterations there are on that fact, YOU ARE JUDGED ON HOW THE TRANSACTION WORKS OUT FOR YOUR SIDE OF THE TRANSACTION. In the million possible iterations of this conversation, I can’t think of one fucking time you would ever admit that you might have been wrong about the trade at the time, that your valuation may not have been accurate. Because instead of looking at the relevant information, you just concoct a reasoning in which your initial valuation is always right no matter what happens afterward.
Good for you. Good luck keeping your job the first time you fuck something up with this arrogant, irrational attitude.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
i'm not saying my initial valuation was right
i’m saying that using information after the trade happened is wrong, because neither I nor mo had has access to that information because it happened in the future.
unless you’re arguing that mo can see the 4th dimension of time. that would make sense actually. he’s always looked a bit like a plunger-head to me.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 2:31 PM EST up reply actions
But I can certainly grade you on whether you were right or wrong
by looking at what happened after the fact. I’m showing YOU that your original projection was wrong. Way wrong. Could you have known that at the time? Of course not. Could Mo? Of course not. However, Mo looks a lot better than you because he made a risk based on his valuation of the trade and it turns out that he was correct.
You continue to maintain that the trade was bad for the Cardinals. Which not only defies logic and outcome, but is really fucking annoying to have to listen to day in and day out.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
projections don't work like you think they do
would i have been wrong to project Brady Anderson not to hit 59 homers?
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 2:37 PM EST up reply actions
You can't simultaneously
defend projections and also claim that what actually happens is worthless noise. Which is what you are doing.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
for the individual projection, its' worthless
for the mass of projections, it’s not.
just like how you can’t make a correlation out of one data point.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 2:51 PM EST up reply actions
Which is what you're doing
evaluating Mozeliak and Luhnow based on one trade.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
different scenarios
one is influenced by random chance, the other is not.
I’m also not saying that Luhnow is better on the basis of this trade.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 3:09 PM EST up reply actions
Mo does have additional information on the prospects in the trade, yes?
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
yes, but that doesn't have anything to do with what happened after the trade
and Mo may have additional information, but that doesn’t mean he’s good at utilizing it.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 2:37 PM EST up reply actions
Mo most likely has way more information than VEP or most other valuing that trade.
Not to mention having the actual conversations with other GM’s about possible trades of said players to know what the value is.
VEP has a spreadsheet with numbers on it. Good numbers, but numbers none the less, and paper value doesn’t necessarily equate to actual value.
This is where he and I butt heads every time. The difference between us is that I’m willing to admit that my method of evaluation may be flawed. His is never flawed. Not even two years after the fact when any fucking person looking at the data for the four players would conclude that the Cardinals won this trade. Hands down.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
My method of evaluation is flawed
I think that Mo’s is more flawed, despite him having more information.
VEP has a spreadsheet with numbers on it. Good numbers, but numbers none the less, and paper value doesn’t necessarily equate to actual value.
Are you saying that Mo is not making a specific numerical value? Because he definitely is, that’s what allows him to say that Holliday is worth more than Wallace.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 2:40 PM EST up reply actions
Let me put it this way
The Red Sox and Cardinals are surely more likely to be trading for a Holliday or Melancon than the Astros or the Athletics, right? They’re successful teams with $$$ who are in the prime marginal win curve location.
Teams of this ilk, across the board, make prospects-for-veterans trade, which you uniformly depict as stupid. You often use this particular trade as an example of Mo being a bad GM, which I believe is incredibly unfair. If he were the Astros making that trade, he is a bad GM.
You can’t compare Luhnow to Mozeliak in this case. You just can’t. The teams are in entirely different positions to make trades like this
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
Which is what I mean by
marginal utility to the organization making the trade. But apparently I’m just the asshole who’s an idiot despite being an adult.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
I did the playoff odds thing with the holliday deal at the time
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/7/24/961426/matt-holliday-to-st-louis
So I’m not disregarding the win curve. I still think it was a bad trade.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 2:55 PM EST up reply actions
But do you believe that almost all prospects-for-veteran trades are bad?
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
no, i believe they are bad when i think they are bad
you’ve been reading too many of fourstick’s comments.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 2:57 PM EST up reply actions
Firstly, what kind of language in my question prompted this response?
Secondly, do you have an example?
I’m usually on the prospect side of the argument, but there are situations where you just have to go for it
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
You assumed that I thought all prospect for veterans trades are bad
There are situations when you go for it when the increase in playoff odds in year 1 is worth the decrease in wins in playoff odds in other years.
Usually GM’s overvalue the playoff odds in year 1, IMO.
Of course it all depends on how highly you value a playoff appearance or a WS win. Usually I use increase in revenue.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 3:04 PM EST up reply actions
Ohhhhhhhhhh jesus
Name one that you thought was good. ONE.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
i can't think of any trades off the top of my head
why don’t you name your top 5 prospect for 1 year rental trades.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 3:05 PM EST up reply actions
Thank you, thank you.
Bows. The defense rests it’s case.
And no, I’m not going to give you my top 10 for you to nitpick apart. LOL.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
give me your top 10 and i'll tell you if i think any of them favored the rental team
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 3:11 PM EST up reply actions
You won't find any of them that will
I know this. Which is also why I say it all the time.
I’ve seen you criticize every veteran for prospects trade in the last 4 years on this very blog, why in the hell would I need to then prove my point even more?
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
humor me
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 3:17 PM EST up reply actions
Seems to me
That fourstick must not be a poker player. If so, then he’d recognize that making a decision that ends up losing you the hand can still be the right move.
I would argue the same here. The fact that Mo caught an inside straight does not make his “all-in” call correct. It just means he got lucky.
by arch support on Dec 14, 2011 5:53 PM EST up reply actions
I'll risk getting shredded on this
How about the Sabathia trade. According to this analysis, the value was about even, and if ever there was a team for whom “going for it” was important, it’d be those Brewers.
by brackenthebox on Dec 14, 2011 3:23 PM EST up reply actions
Well I agree with that analysis on quick glance
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 3:34 PM EST up reply actions
I couldn't disagree more.
The only way that makes sense is if you have complete and accurate information on the front end (and have the same shorterm or longterm horizon for achieving the same goals) which the parties to baseball trades never have.
This is why the “dick in a toaster” idea is so stupid when used as an analogy for baseball trades.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Dec 14, 2011 6:14 PM EST up reply actions
You pretty roundly derided the Holliday signing at the time
so this is a pretty incredible piece of revisionist history from you.
Beware: Velociraptors may be present.
i just thought we bid against ourself
i said it was about market value at the time.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 2:52 PM EST up reply actions
Folks keep repeating the "bid against ourselves" line but what supports this?
I haven’t seen any reports to support this. I may have missed them, though.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
there's nothing really to support it
but that’s how i felt at the time. i’m not sure if i still believe it.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 3:05 PM EST up reply actions
More of an absence of reports of competing offers.
Chief Economist of Tyler Greene Fanclub
by Cardinals645 on Dec 14, 2011 6:40 PM EST up reply actions
Kyle Lohse for $4.5M in '08
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
same deal as Berkman
decent surplus for one year, but not nearly as much as 4 years of Lowrie over Melancon.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 1:03 PM EST up reply actions
Melancon's not even that good!
7.99 K/9, 3.15 BB/9, 3.25 FIP
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
I know.
I wound up with him on my fantasy baseball team last year. I can’t believe Boston made this trade.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
boston isn't planning on using him as a closer, are they?
that’s a piss-poor replacement for papelbon.
it is what it is, not what we thought it'd be
Even assuming they are, it's still a horrible trade.
He’s a reliever no matter what role in the bullpen they give him.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Hey man, 20 saves
And he only blew…5 of them. 80% success rate!
Kumar: I don't know man, I lose my touch, man.
Dignan: Did you ever have a touch to lose, man?
That's a decent return
Nothing gangbusters though. I think Lowrie is a good player, but Weiland wouldn’t rank in the top 25 prospects for the Cardinals.
I’m wondering what the Red Sox are planning to do at SS if they’re just dumping Jed Lowrie for a bullpen pitcher they don’t really need.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
They must think that Iglesias wins the job out of spring training this year or something
Lowrie > Scutaro at this point in his career.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
Lowrie's projected for a .341 wOBA next year
Melancon is a reliever
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
Yeah I just looked it up
TOLD YOU GUYS.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 11:50 AM EST up reply actions
Altuve and Lowrie for the next 5 years sounds awesome
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
Role Model
Luhnow is avant-garde, hip, and cool; He’s just the kind of person I could model myself after. And I just wanted to share how something as simple as his hiring as Astros GM has affected my life.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Dec 14, 2011 11:57 AM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Future meme alert
And I just wanted to share how something as simple as [INSERT BASEBALL-RELATED ITEM HERE] has affected my life.
Kumar: I don't know man, I lose my touch, man.
Dignan: Did you ever have a touch to lose, man?
you guys are all gonna be eating your words in a year
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 12:05 PM EST up reply actions
...When Houston finishes 5th and not 6th?
The negative waves. Always with the negative waves...
Elation. Sadness. Mayhem. Champagne. Sleepless fury. Never been a night like it. - Joe Posnanski
they'll be better than the Mariners
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 12:10 PM EST up reply actions
Wow
Talk about damning with faint praise
Beer and Baseball. Baseball and Beer. It's not hard to reevaluate your priorities when you only have two.
by PugetSoundCardsAddict on Dec 14, 2011 12:24 PM EST up reply actions
well they have nothing right now, so that would be an achievement of sorts
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 12:25 PM EST up reply actions
What words
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
the words people said about how it's absurd to claim that luhnow
is a massively better gm than mozeliak because we don’t as of yet have any evidence that would be the case.
it is what it is, not what we thought it'd be
No no no
I just said I thought Luhnow would be a better GM than Mo. That’s called a prediction. I admitted there was no hard evidence, but ya’ll didn’t admit that Luhnow was super-smart.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 12:10 PM EST up reply actions
Who didn't admit that?
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
prophetjohn, whoever else was arguing with me
either that or they were just making some ridiculous “we don’t KNOW” argument.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 12:11 PM EST up reply actions
I think it was the latter
at least with me. I love Luhnow.
Chief Economist of Tyler Greene Fanclub
by Cardinals645 on Dec 14, 2011 1:06 PM EST up reply actions
um. yes we did.
pretty much everyone did. do you even remember the conversation?
everyone said that luhnow was pretty much a savant at player evaluation and the draft. there are other things a gm is responsible for, however, so it seems premature to label him better than mozeliak.
it is what it is, not what we thought it'd be
whatever man
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 12:12 PM EST up reply actions
eventually we all admit you are smarter than us vep, you'll see...
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
oh i will, will i?
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 12:14 PM EST up reply actions
oh yeah, just keeping posting we are getting there
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
oh, sorry
i missed the referendum, so i’ll just state my opinion now, as has always been: Luhnow is super smart. there!
Sign Hong-Chih Kuo
by tehzachatak on Dec 14, 2011 12:16 PM EST up reply actions
thereinliesthegag.bmp
VEB WINTER MEET-UP DISCUSSION
SIGN PRINCE FIELDER
by a fink on Dec 14, 2011 12:19 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
.bmp!
shit, fink! move into the next millennium why don’t ya!
Sign Hong-Chih Kuo
by tehzachatak on Dec 14, 2011 12:27 PM EST up reply actions
Thegagcontinues.txt
The negative waves. Always with the negative waves...
Elation. Sadness. Mayhem. Champagne. Sleepless fury. Never been a night like it. - Joe Posnanski
see archaic format humor now that is the kind of jokes
we can all get behind
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
valide is, of course,
the italian for valid. sorry guys.
it is what it is, not what we thought it'd be
FRAG-EE-LEIGH
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
Abort, Retry, Fail?
#HappySeason #SadOffSeason
by The Continental on Dec 14, 2011 12:34 PM EST up reply actions
fink knows that thereinliesthegag.bmp
would be much less funny after compression.
#HappySeason #SadOffSeason
by The Continental on Dec 14, 2011 12:29 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Watch Lowrie go all Bagwell
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
Lowrie at SS and Altuve at 2B
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
Oh, I didn't know Lowrie played short. What on earth are the Red Sox thinking?
VEB WINTER MEET-UP DISCUSSION
SIGN PRINCE FIELDER
the dropoff from theo to whoever they have now must be pretty steep
compensating for losing paplebon, probably. Melancon is gonna get hit hard in the AL East.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 12:15 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I don't think he's all that good, and even if he is an adequate closer for them (which is probably his upside)
this isn’t a good trade.
VEB WINTER MEET-UP DISCUSSION
SIGN PRINCE FIELDER
Cherington I believe is his name.
Chief Economist of Tyler Greene Fanclub
by Cardinals645 on Dec 14, 2011 1:09 PM EST up reply actions
does Lowrie really have 5 years of control left?
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 12:13 PM EST up reply actions
Per B-R
Jed Lowrie
2011 – $450k
2012 – Arb-1
2013 – Arb-2
2014 – Arb-3
2015 – FA
The negative waves. Always with the negative waves...
Elation. Sadness. Mayhem. Champagne. Sleepless fury. Never been a night like it. - Joe Posnanski
Someone who didn't leave town fast enough.
The negative waves. Always with the negative waves...
Elation. Sadness. Mayhem. Champagne. Sleepless fury. Never been a night like it. - Joe Posnanski
Who went to my friend's high school.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
your friend owns a high school?
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
The English Language
I love it.
I am a college student that sleeps with a St. Louis Cardinals Fredbird Pillow Pet, and I am proud of it.
...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ben_Cherington
masters in sports management, fraternity, looks kind of like a toolhead. sounds like your typical gm.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 12:17 PM EST up reply actions
Oh yeah this is a totally fair statement
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
sorry, i must be generalizing again
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 12:19 PM EST up reply actions
you're so capable of being civil.
and yet you choose not to be.
it is what it is, not what we thought it'd be
c'mon, don't take it so seriously
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 12:23 PM EST up reply actions
I honestly think you have been
considerably more civil over the last couple months
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
he did stop telling people to go fuck themselves
Sign Hong-Chih Kuo
by tehzachatak on Dec 14, 2011 12:28 PM EST up reply actions
I've still yet to figure it out.
How do people physically do that? I feel like I’m missing something.
I am a college student that sleeps with a St. Louis Cardinals Fredbird Pillow Pet, and I am proud of it.
about four inches?
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
Not quite what I meant,
but possibly quite true I suppose.
I am a college student that sleeps with a St. Louis Cardinals Fredbird Pillow Pet, and I am proud of it.
dude, he was married to wendi nix!
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 12:21 PM EST up reply actions
here's an interview with him if anyone has a BPro account
http://dev_old.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7852
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 12:27 PM EST up reply actions
Probably not gonna read that.
Synopsis?
Chief Economist of Tyler Greene Fanclub
by Cardinals645 on Dec 14, 2011 1:12 PM EST up reply actions
i don't have a bpro account
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 1:14 PM EST up reply actions
THEORY: The Red Sox don't have a GM
so Luhnow figured out he can make any trade he wants to.
"He probably misses his old glasses."
That's a good theory, see where it goes.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 12:18 PM EST up reply actions
Heyman likes it
For the Sawx:
Jon Heyman @JonHeymanCBS Close
melancon nice pickup for #redsox. cant be their closer, tho. they still need someone for the 9th.
The negative waves. Always with the negative waves...
Elation. Sadness. Mayhem. Champagne. Sleepless fury. Never been a night like it. - Joe Posnanski
i am starting to realise why this community dislikes heyman.
it is what it is, not what we thought it'd be
no this is just him being stupid
that makes him no different than 80% of the sportwriters.
Heyman also has a mean streak though, and he argued Morris > Blyleven.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 12:35 PM EST up reply actions
I don't dislike the guy, he's just dumb.
I bring this up all the time, but he argued that Don Mattingly should be in the Hall of FAME because he is FAMOUS. McGwire however, should NOT be in the Hall because of the roids, despite his incredible amount of fame.
Chief Economist of Tyler Greene Fanclub
by Cardinals645 on Dec 14, 2011 1:13 PM EST up reply actions
They do?
I assumed Daniel Bard was going to get that role.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
Bard is reportedly moving to the rotation
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
How much better is Melancon than McClellan?
K-Mac for Pedroia!
"Congratulations to the Cardinals! Such a fun world series." - Salman Rushdie
McDonalds DVD
Has any one ordered the McDonald’s WS dvd? Is it worth it? It’s not the same as the MLB dvd is it?
CliffNotes: "My Dad wanted me to be a baseball player!"
Roy Hobbs: "The Natural"
Haven't seen it but I know it's different.
I talked to someone who said it was pretty short. They also have a bonus bit about larussa.
by Cheeseballs on Dec 14, 2011 12:03 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Thanks
I appreciate it.
CliffNotes: "My Dad wanted me to be a baseball player!"
Roy Hobbs: "The Natural"
You reminded me to get it
I’m watching it now.
by Cheeseballs on Dec 14, 2011 12:53 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I follow some Reds bloggers and they are all shit in their pants scared the Cards are going to get Beltran
All the more reason for Mo to start throwing the heat.
"I don’t like the feeling of losing."---Chris Carpenter
After we sign Beltran
We could offer them Beltran for Votto, if they are that scared of him.
by rumors on Dec 14, 2011 12:18 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Another benefit of signing Beltran
i have several friends that are Royals fans. They are all admittedly anti-Cardinals due to our successful decade. During the ‘04-’06 run, many of them cheered for any team that played the Cardinals in the playoffs. They did so most passionately during the 2004 & 2006 NLCS. Their reasoning “Beltran! We love Beltran!”
The rumors of the Cardinals pursuing Beltran is much to these folks’ chagrin. I will take immense pleasure in being able to cheer for Beltran and pointing out that they should also be cheering for Beltran’s, and thus the Cardinals’, success.
Oh yeah, Carlos Beltran was pretty good last year.
Mike Shannon: "That strikeout was brought to you by...by...well, I don't know what it was brought to you by!"
John Rooney: "It wasn't brought to you by anything Mike."
Yes, because Beltran > Pujols.
Um. No.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
I realize it take a more comprehensive argument (than just re: Beltran) to make this point
but assuming we get Beltran, and with Furcal back for the whole season (hopefully) and Waingwright back, what is the expected drop-off in win expectancy from last year. 2 wins? 3, maybe, even without Pujols?
The Beltran singing would be huge because I think it would give us those last few marginal wins to put us on basically an equal footing with last year’s team.
my favorite words are goodbye and my favorite color is red
If we get Beltran, Furcal and Wainwright
I think we’re a better team on paper than we were last year.
This is, in part, because the projections for Craig, Freese and Berkman for 2012 will be much better than they were at the start of 2011.
I’m guessing we were something like an 85, maybe 87-win true-talent team last year after Waino went down, and we’re closer to 90 this year with Beltran.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 14, 2011 2:00 PM EST up reply actions
I think we're closer to 90 now, considering infield and bullpen upgrades from the first half of last season.
And the obvious Wainwright improvement. And Berkman shifting to 1B. With Belran, I think it puts the team closer to 93+ wins.
Chief Economist of Tyler Greene Fanclub
by Cardinals645 on Dec 14, 2011 2:03 PM EST up reply actions
good to know
my one concern is that Pujols did have the ability to almost single-handedly win games for us, for example the back-to-back walkoff games against Chicago.
my favorite words are goodbye and my favorite color is red
Skip was worth exactly 1 win in 2011....
…1 real win (vs theoretical ones) when he hit that GW walk-off dinger. That actually won a game for us. How much is that worth to everyone? Seriously, it probably won’t happen again, at least not in such a dramatic fashion, but I am ok with Skip being on the club as long as Theriot and Corey Patterson are not.
2011 World Series Champions!
And that is NERTLERB!!!!!!!!!!
:=8D
OT: Food
I downloaded an Android app called “Alfred” that gives recomendations for places to eat/drink etc. at and it recomended a place called Fozzie’s Sandwich Emporium. Any VEB members been to this place?
by CarpIsMyManCrush on Dec 14, 2011 12:19 PM EST reply actions
Wocka wocka wocka!
Chief Economist of Tyler Greene Fanclub
by Cardinals645 on Dec 14, 2011 1:15 PM EST up reply actions
TO THOSE WANTING THE COLUMBIA TRIBUNE W.S. FRONT PAGE: Sorry!
Hey Aaron, so I finally figured out what the problem was with people getting back to me. As it turns out, there was such a high demand for that paper, the ad department decided to confiscate all of them and sell them as “collectors items.” This explains why no one was getting back to me and why I couldn’t locate any of them,
VEB WINTER MEET-UP DISCUSSION
SIGN PRINCE FIELDER
So if they are selling them and I wanted 10 copies
would it cost me 254M ?
Beer and Baseball. Baseball and Beer. It's not hard to reevaluate your priorities when you only have two.
by PugetSoundCardsAddict on Dec 14, 2011 12:31 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
No. $5.00 per paper
And $253,999,950 for shipping to California.
The negative waves. Always with the negative waves...
Elation. Sadness. Mayhem. Champagne. Sleepless fury. Never been a night like it. - Joe Posnanski
I think I'd rather have 2 copies of the Belletran News Democrat
with an option for a third
Beer and Baseball. Baseball and Beer. It's not hard to reevaluate your priorities when you only have two.
by PugetSoundCardsAddict on Dec 14, 2011 12:42 PM EST up reply actions
I think you mean 254₨
#HappySeason #SadOffSeason
by The Continental on Dec 14, 2011 12:38 PM EST up reply actions
yeah, they make you purchase prints of the front page at the Columbia Tribune website
Il rosso, I think you were the 3rd person to request a copy from me. I need to check, but I think that I have an additional copy (please don’t get hopes up though)
Mike Shannon: "That strikeout was brought to you by...by...well, I don't know what it was brought to you by!"
John Rooney: "It wasn't brought to you by anything Mike."
don't worry about it.
i’d like it if you have one, but please don’t make any special effort on my part.
it is what it is, not what we thought it'd be
then screw you, i'm gonna step on your head raise my hand and shout
I WANT IT
"I still don’t understand what commercial is better than having me on tv" – Chris Carpenter
2011: Boog would've count 78
perhaps i understated how much i want it.
i really want it! but i didn’t want sheckie to feel guilty if he can’t get one.
it is what it is, not what we thought it'd be
yes, but did you use CAPS?
CAUSE I DID!
"I still don’t understand what commercial is better than having me on tv" – Chris Carpenter
2011: Boog would've count 78
well, if it's just gonna be reprints, go to my fanpost
and click on the culombia tribune cover picture
to get to a large printable pdf and print it yourself somewhere for 2 bucks
"I still don’t understand what commercial is better than having me on tv" – Chris Carpenter
2011: Boog would've count 78
Fangraphs article up on Rasmus trade...
unfortunately it’s just about the worst article I’ve ever seen on the site. Rotoworld updates are more comprehensive.
If I’m Dave Cameron I keep that writer after school for a re-write.
Sign Roy O
And it doesn't bother to mention the draft picks we are getting.
"He probably misses his old glasses."
Agreed, it was pretty bad.
There was just nothing … there.
The guy who wrote it is a Brewers blogger who’s usually pretty solid, but he should probably stick to that – his quality drops quite a bit whenever he writes about any other team.
by Cheeseandcorn on Dec 14, 2011 12:40 PM EST up reply actions
I treat Jim Breen articles on fangraphs pretty much the way most of VEB treats Burwell articles.
There’s just nothing there I wouldn’t have thought of myself or is actually of any value.
"Nothing Motte does is quiet. It's mostly screamy and intense." - sheckiezx
"I'm a graduate of the Mike Shannon School of Diction" - Al Hrabosky
by monkeysareblue on Dec 14, 2011 6:45 PM EST up reply actions
yeah, that was a terrible article
Sign Hong-Chih Kuo
by tehzachatak on Dec 14, 2011 12:40 PM EST up reply actions
i figured this was your typical hyperbole,
but you weren’t lying. that is an awful article.
i like rui’s comment. paraphrase:
first of all, thanks for taking the time to write this. fangraphs is awesome. secondly, this article is terrible in almost every way.
it is what it is, not what we thought it'd be
hyperbole is a type of metaphor
Sign Hong-Chih Kuo
by tehzachatak on Dec 14, 2011 12:53 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
poorly worded.
sometimes you are sarcastic and as i am bad at detecting sarcasm, i wasn’t initially sure if you were serious in your critique.
it is what it is, not what we thought it'd be
I didn't think it was terrible
Just really pointless.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 12:42 PM EST up reply actions
Goddamnit, I hate circlechange
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 12:44 PM EST up reply actions
I kind of miss your interactions
angry vep is pretty amusing to wind up and watch go.
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
so is self righteous tomcat
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 12:46 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
nevermind
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 12:47 PM EST up reply actions
Does this mean that I should cross off revisiting the Rasmus trade as a potential winter main post?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
please don't (cross it off).
it would be nice to see a real article.
it is what it is, not what we thought it'd be
I keep expecting Azru to write such a post so I never do.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
WE WON THE WORLD SERIES
/not defending trade, simply trying to make feel better
"He’s not a great golden god come from the sky. He’s a fucking baseball player."
-the red baron
by stlcardinalsfang on Dec 14, 2011 3:52 PM EST up reply actions
#azrucrieswhen we win the world series without colby
You teach me baseball and I'll teach you relativity. No, we must not. You will learn about relativity faster than I learn baseball. --Albert Einstein
2011 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!
by IHeartBoog on Dec 14, 2011 4:20 PM EST up reply actions 5 recs
i'm glad you made this joke instead of me.
i had a comment about getting you rust-proofed all lined up and then canceled it.
i used to be disgusted, but now i try to be amused . . . - macmanus
I've tried a couple times to write about it
and I’ve decided I just don’t want to. I could but I don’t want to.
The frame work is easy. Get projections for each player from the time of the trade and compare those projections to their replacements. You could also compare it to what actually happened to get a better sense of who over or underperformed compared to the time of the trade.
Getting the projections (that don’t include any post trade data) would be the trick.
Still sad.
Beware: Velociraptors may be present.
I get at least one email a week
from RFT readers who want me to admit how wrong I was about the trade and publicly flagellate myself. So far I’ve resisted doing a response article, only because I’m not sure if I could keep from being overtly adversarial, and I don’t really want to go that direction.
I can do no wrong, for I do not know what it is.
by the red baron on Dec 15, 2011 2:55 AM EST up reply actions
As long as you don't write "we wouldn't have won the WS without the trade"
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 12:57 PM EST up reply actions
I think you're just being semantic
People obviously mean “The trade helped us win the WS.”
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
now YOU'RE being anti-semantic
"He probably misses his old glasses."
by Alxfritz on Dec 14, 2011 1:00 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
well than why don't they say that?
the trade improved our odds of winning the world series, that’s all.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 1:05 PM EST up reply actions
For the same reason you didn't specify the 2011 WS
they’re being #lazy and assuming people will catch their meaning.
Chief Economist of Tyler Greene Fanclub
by Cardinals645 on Dec 14, 2011 1:19 PM EST up reply actions
Here's what circlechange said
But that won’t account for StL not having a chance at the 2011 title without the Rasmus trade.
maybe that’s just hyperbolic, but either way, it’s not true.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 1:23 PM EST up reply actions
I think we have an awful hard time making the playoffs
without Dotel and Jackson. There, I said it.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
I think we had an awful hard time making the playoffs anyway
Not having Dotel and Jackson would have lowered our odds from 4% to 2.2% or something.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 1:38 PM EST up reply actions
Just once I wish you would stop rationalizing....
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
Just once I wish you would be consistent
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 1:51 PM EST up reply actions
Right.
I’m the one that’s not being consistent.
Whatever dude. You’re consistently annoying to debate with, because you take your position to the logical extreme all the time.
If you can’t admit that the Rasmus trade helped the Cardinals make the playoffs, but constantly rely on a shitload of stats that have obvious flaws in them, then I find it hard time to label you “consistent” on much of anything. As usual, there is no one right answer unless you’re you. Then your answer is always the “one right answer”.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
where did i deny that the rasmus trade helped the cardinals make the playoffs?
you’re consistently annoying to debate with because you are insane.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 1:56 PM EST up reply actions
That's what you're arguing against, isn't it?
I’m insane? You’re the clown that plays fucking semantics all the time. To most of us “helped make the playoffs” and “improved odds of making the playoffs” ARE THE SAME MOTHERFUCKING THING. So why go about being a prick about it? Why not just let people voice their opinion and move on.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
Yeah, I never argued that it didn't help making the playoffs
I argued against the idea that we wouldn’t have made the playoffs without the trade.
Re-read the thread from the top.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 2:13 PM EST up reply actions
I did -- but thanks for assuming that I don't read.
Then why in the hell are you arguing with me?
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
uh, you were arguing with me
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 2:41 PM EST up reply actions
No I wasn't
I think we have an awful hard time making the playoffs without Dotel and Jackson. There, I said it.
Then you say:
I think we had an awful hard time making the playoffs anyway
Not having Dotel and Jackson would have lowered our odds from 4% to 2.2% or something.
So the trade improved our chances. What you’re doing is rationalizing your view by using semantics to make “raising odds of playoffs” and “helping make the playoffs” to mean two entirely separate things when that is clearly NOT how they were intended by the original posters.
This nitpicking does not make the community better, and you do it all the fucking time. Just knock it off.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
I was arguing against people who said that that we wouldn't have made the playoffs if it weren't for the trade
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 2:55 PM EST up reply actions
But doubling our chances means nothing?
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
never said it meant nothing
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 3:05 PM EST up reply actions
Can I just say that this part of the exchange is HILARIOUS:
Fourstick: Then why the hell are you arguing with me?
VEP: uh, you were arguing with me
Fourstick: No I wasn’t.
CLASSIC!
Chief Economist of Tyler Greene Fanclub
by Cardinals645 on Dec 14, 2011 6:44 PM EST up reply actions
It's just that there were other influences, too...
Like picking up Fuscal to stabilize the defense up the middle. And the bullpen improving with not just Scrabble but with Lynn, Motte’s ascension to sorta closer, etc.
However, I think it’s true to say that the Ramus trade definitely had an influence on the Cardinals’ run, and because they make the playoffs by a razor-thin margin, it’s not false or hyperbolic to say without that trade the Cardinals don’t make it. Especially when you consider Jake Westbrook—4th starter; Kyle McClellan—Starting Pitcher; and Miller and Tallet—Your LOOGYs for Rent. It’s just untrue to say it was the only reason.
It's just really faulty logic
We won the division by a game. You can say that if we didn’t have Jake Westbrook (1 WAR last year) we wouldn’t have made the playoffs.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 1:45 PM EST up reply actions
you can also say that if we played the season over again, and made the trade again, we wouldn't have made the playoffs
that’s why i don’t like this line of reasoning justifying the trade. i am happy with the outcome, yes, and i think perhaps the trade favors the Blue Jays less than i originally thought, because Rzep is better than i thought he would be, but i think it’s just not good logic.
Sign Hong-Chih Kuo
Exactly, thank you
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 1:48 PM EST up reply actions
And I'm not justifying the trade by saying that
I’m saying that I think we have a really hard time making a playoff run of any kind without the trade.
That doesn’t justify it, that merely states that the players we got back were helpful and did perform.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
we had a really hard time making a playoff run with the trade
they improved our odds, that’s all. I know this, you know this.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 1:57 PM EST up reply actions
It is what it is.
Chief Economist of Tyler Greene Fanclub
by Cardinals645 on Dec 14, 2011 1:59 PM EST up reply actions
i would agree with this, yes
but, as VEP points out above, we had a very hard time making the playoff run WITH the trade. i agree, if you can somehow swap what Colby’s projected performance was with the actual performance of the people we got back, and hold everything else constant, we probably don’t make the playoffs- that’s kind of the argument you’re implying, and i would imagine it’s correct- i just don’t think that’s useful of an argument.
Sign Hong-Chih Kuo
not only is it not useful, it's fallacious
because when you replay the season, you can’t hold everything constant.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 2:01 PM EST up reply actions
you hold nothing constant
muhahahaha
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 2:01 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think any of this matters actually.
Did the trade improve our team for the reasons we made the trade? Yes.
Moving on…..
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
Sure
I think the Furcal trade probably helped more than the Rasmus trade. But it’s really hard to disqualify how much better our bullpen was after the trade vs. before the trade. And how good our bullpen was in the playoffs compared to how it was in, say, July.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
Hyperbolic?
Hyperbollocks more like.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 14, 2011 1:55 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
we don't win the world series without the trade. we just don't. period.
"He’s not a great golden god come from the sky. He’s a fucking baseball player."
-the red baron
by stlcardinalsfang on Dec 14, 2011 3:52 PM EST up reply actions
you are the worst accounting major ever
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 3:53 PM EST up reply actions
wat
"He’s not a great golden god come from the sky. He’s a fucking baseball player."
-the red baron
by stlcardinalsfang on Dec 14, 2011 3:54 PM EST up reply actions
there is obviously a chance we win the ws without the trade
pujols could have had a .500 wOBA the rest of the year, or the braves could have lost 40 in a row.
what you’re saying is that given the way each player performed the rest of the year, the trade was the deciding, but that’s conflating two different realities. if your going to say the trade worked, that you have to replay the rest of the season with and without rasmus.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 3:58 PM EST up reply actions
....you don't wanna do that
it may result in an absense of woooooos.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 4:03 PM EST up reply actions
the other parts can
be the ESPN director’s cut, but we can know what ACTUALLY happened.
Because Matheny
actually, I think this is a pretty common perspective within accounting
frequentists to accounting
bayesians to economics
by brackenthebox on Dec 14, 2011 4:06 PM EST up reply actions
i don't even think fang's process would go under frequentist
although i could be very wrong.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 4:12 PM EST up reply actions
i'm actually both.
"He’s not a great golden god come from the sky. He’s a fucking baseball player."
-the red baron
by stlcardinalsfang on Dec 14, 2011 4:47 PM EST up reply actions
No, it means you shouldn't be lazy about it though
Do ample research on marginal win curves and playoff probabilities added, though!
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
I'll be as lazy as Rasmus if I want.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Dec 14, 2011 1:02 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
make sure to value that properly, instead of just throwing it out there like it means something
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 1:05 PM EST up reply actions
rasmus in the future also adds to our win curve
we’re always going to be in that sweet spot.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 1:06 PM EST up reply actions
apparently it gives you a nice, low threshold to aim for
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
Monk did a fairly complete fanpost on it, IIRC.
The negative waves. Always with the negative waves...
Elation. Sadness. Mayhem. Champagne. Sleepless fury. Never been a night like it. - Joe Posnanski
Ah I love the mystery team
apparently two of them are in on beltran
by CarpIsMyManCrush on Dec 14, 2011 12:43 PM EST reply actions
Ruh Roh
Off to the Mystery Machine to solve the case
Beer and Baseball. Baseball and Beer. It's not hard to reevaluate your priorities when you only have two.
by PugetSoundCardsAddict on Dec 14, 2011 12:46 PM EST up reply actions
who's beltran's agent again?
(please not boras)
"I still don’t understand what commercial is better than having me on tv" – Chris Carpenter
2011: Boog would've count 78
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
"I still don’t understand what commercial is better than having me on tv" – Chris Carpenter
2011: Boog would've count 78
hey danny, i know you screwed us the previous time we dealt with you
but you seem tired, how about you take a break and go have a drink with that nice stripper over there and we’ll just sit here with carlos and not discuss any terms like at all
"I still don’t understand what commercial is better than having me on tv" – Chris Carpenter
2011: Boog would've count 78
by d-dee on Dec 14, 2011 12:51 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
you mean hookers?
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 12:50 PM EST up reply actions
hey, i was going to make this joke!
Sign Hong-Chih Kuo
by tehzachatak on Dec 14, 2011 12:51 PM EST up reply actions
you don't know Lozano joker
Sign Hong-Chih Kuo
by tehzachatak on Dec 14, 2011 12:52 PM EST up reply actions
i fully expect nightengale to write a story about the mystery teams
and the inside negotiations
by CarpIsMyManCrush on Dec 14, 2011 12:51 PM EST up reply actions
lozano
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 12:48 PM EST up reply actions
MLB 12 The Show's Developers are just cruel
by CarpIsMyManCrush on Dec 14, 2011 12:53 PM EST reply actions
get that filth off my blog
Sign Hong-Chih Kuo
by tehzachatak on Dec 14, 2011 12:53 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
let me fix that for you

"I still don’t understand what commercial is better than having me on tv" – Chris Carpenter
2011: Boog would've count 78
by d-dee on Dec 14, 2011 12:58 PM EST up reply actions 16 recs
I see what you did there
Beer and Baseball. Baseball and Beer. It's not hard to reevaluate your priorities when you only have two.
by PugetSoundCardsAddict on Dec 14, 2011 1:00 PM EST up reply actions
better yet

"I still don’t understand what commercial is better than having me on tv" – Chris Carpenter
2011: Boog would've count 78
by d-dee on Dec 14, 2011 1:06 PM EST up reply actions 15 recs
The sun is setting in the North East next year?
We’re screwed, people.
"He probably misses his old glasses."
They had to move it, otherwise Pujols would cry.
The negative waves. Always with the negative waves...
Elation. Sadness. Mayhem. Champagne. Sleepless fury. Never been a night like it. - Joe Posnanski
by TBender on Dec 14, 2011 1:08 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
+1 this is awesome
Cards fan in Seoul.
Albert Pujols is the hero saint louis deserves, but not the one it can afford right now. So we'll strike him out out because he can take it. Because he's not our hero. He's an A-Rod
by letsgostlcardinals on Dec 14, 2011 1:12 PM EST up reply actions
I wonder if Pujols changes his walkup song to "respect" by Aretha Franklin
by CarpIsMyManCrush on Dec 14, 2011 1:13 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Honestly
If not, then someone should use it. It is the greatest entrance song of all time.
Mike Shannon: "That strikeout was brought to you by...by...well, I don't know what it was brought to you by!"
John Rooney: "It wasn't brought to you by anything Mike."
Who's that skinny guy who kind of
looks like APu?
by MdRedbirdFreak on Dec 14, 2011 3:07 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
@Buster_ESPN
Rival executives expect that Michael Cuddyer will land with the Colorado Rockies.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
good new for us re: Beltran
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
Yeah, I have a Twitter...big whoop...wanna fight about it?
news too
Chicago Cubs: The first century was funny...this second one is just sad...
Yeah, I have a Twitter...big whoop...wanna fight about it?
Fuck yeah!
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 1:06 PM EST up reply actions
Two Mystery Teams
According to CBS:
The market for Carlos Beltran is heating up, with at least five clubs and possibly more seriously talking with the free agent outfielder. Among them, according to sources: The Toronto Blue Jays, St. Louis Cardinals and, as CBSSports.com’s Jon Heyman reported earlier Tuesday, the Colorado Rockies.
At least two other unidentified clubs are said to be engaged in talks with Beltran, with most of the clubs talking multi-year deals.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
To be honest
I wonder if Cody Ross isn’t looking like a more sensible option right now. Much less upside but it wouldn’t surprise me if the bidding on Beltran gets stupid, given he’s the only impact FA OF on the market,.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 14, 2011 1:11 PM EST up reply actions
I agree with this
Far cheaper, and won’t require a 3 year commitment. Could be a full time CF if need be, and I think he’s undervalued as well.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
I at least see it as a really logical alternate plan
I’d still prefer Beltran given an acceptable cost, but I’m beginning to be a little nervous about what it might take to acquire him.
And he mashes the fuck out of lefties
which we really need when we’re running Descalso/Berkman/Jay out there most days.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 14, 2011 1:56 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah
I really think he might be the better value play for us rather than getting in a bidding war over Beltran. Although, we could just sign them both, it’s not like we don’t have $22 – $30M sitting around that was earmarked for someone else….
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
Is there a reason the giants aren't trying to get him back?
Maybe that is one of the mystery teams?
Cards fan in Seoul.
Albert Pujols is the hero saint louis deserves, but not the one it can afford right now. So we'll strike him out out because he can take it. Because he's not our hero. He's an A-Rod
by letsgostlcardinals on Dec 14, 2011 1:17 PM EST up reply actions
Toronto has no reason to sign Beltran
I heard one of the mystery teams are the St. Louis Brown Stockings
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 14, 2011 1:19 PM EST up reply actions
If Toronto signs Beltran, where does he play?
They’re pretty loaded in the OF as it is, unless they’re dumping Rasmus after spending considerable resources to acquire him in July.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
Maybe they don't believe in Thames...
which makes me even madder that we couldn’t get someone like that.
Sign Roy O
I'd sign Beltran over playing Thames I think
But replacing Travis Snider? Probably not.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
word on the street was Albert was returning too
I’ll believe it when it’s done.
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
ok, let's sanity check this shit.
Why is carlos beltran signing AFTER cuddyer, and why is he likely to get 2 years if cuddyer’s getting 3?
i used to be disgusted, but now i try to be amused . . . - macmanus
by tom s. on Dec 14, 2011 2:24 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I mean, don't some of us have jobs? I mean I'm done for the semester, but what are you all supposed to be doing?
RE-SIGN EVERYONE
by Notorious PSC on Dec 14, 2011 1:13 PM EST up reply actions
Mind your own business
and clean up your room.
Beer and Baseball. Baseball and Beer. It's not hard to reevaluate your priorities when you only have two.
by PugetSoundCardsAddict on Dec 14, 2011 1:32 PM EST up reply actions
Quality Control on a data analysis team
gee I wonder why I would rather be cyber bullied by tehzachattack and fourstick
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
ah, yes. i'm cyber bullying you now. that's what it's called when you point out flaws in someone's reasoning.
Sign Hong-Chih Kuo
stop! just stop alright!
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
oh, i'm really sorry that i responded when you called me out completely out of context later in the thread
next time i’ll just sit on my hands and let you say whatever the hell you like.
Sign Hong-Chih Kuo
now i am crying, does that make you feel like a big man?
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
/veb is serious business
See you guys in ST!!!
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
Fair precis I think
It’s the opportunity cost, as you say, that rankles. Even if Skip is the 25th guy on the roster, and we only add one more free agent OF (Beltran or Ross for instance) and, say, Nick Punto, then we’re keeping Matt Carpenter (arguably a more useful player than Skip on both the offensive and defensive ends) in AAA at the start of the year. Then when Allen Craig is back, we have to DFA somebody if everyone’s healthy.
Same with KMac – assuming we add a junkyard lefty, we’re looking at an 8-man bullpen at the start of the year, or having Eduardo Sanchez languishing in Memphis. These aren’t indefensible options, but realistically they’re not good ones. My one hope, however, is that they’re looking to trade KMac. I expect there’s no market for Skip but plenty of teams would probably give up a C-level prospect or a very middling LOOGY for a guy like McClellan at ~$2m.
Still bitching to contact.
/Budweiser commercial?
The negative waves. Always with the negative waves...
Elation. Sadness. Mayhem. Champagne. Sleepless fury. Never been a night like it. - Joe Posnanski
I thought it was the Joker's line from the Dark Knight
RE-SIGN EVERYONE
by Notorious PSC on Dec 14, 2011 1:15 PM EST up reply actions
never can go wrong with a Wayne's World II reference.
Mike Shannon: "That strikeout was brought to you by...by...well, I don't know what it was brought to you by!"
John Rooney: "It wasn't brought to you by anything Mike."
But the shopkeeper and his son, they were a different story altogether...
I had to beat them to death with their own shoes.
one of my favorite lines
I use it too often. Never appreciated
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 14, 2011 3:57 PM EST up reply actions
All in favor of bringing Schumaker back,
you stand with Jeff Gordon.You really have to read this. It’s as much a lamentation about not bringing back Theriot as it is a thumbs up to bringing back Schumaker.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Actually, re-reading this column makes it even weirder and more nonsensical.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
In conclusion: The Cardinals should have kept the entire 40 man roster intact.
"He probably misses his old glasses."
Apparently keeping Gerard Laird could have helped the clubhouse?
Cards fan in Seoul.
Albert Pujols is the hero saint louis deserves, but not the one it can afford right now. So we'll strike him out out because he can take it. Because he's not our hero. He's an A-Rod
by letsgostlcardinals on Dec 14, 2011 1:27 PM EST up reply actions
That is awesome.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 14, 2011 1:57 PM EST up reply actions
MLB Network radio
was ripping Gordon’s piece about how Albert owed it to St. Louis to come back. Some idiot called in and tried to defend Gordon. I wanted to call and let them know that Gordon (and Burwell) are unreadable and ignored by the majority of Cardinals fans.
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
You seem odd
they were talking about Gordon’s piece from the Post-Dispatch yesterday.
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
Right. Gordon is a blogger for the Post-Dispatch.
His “columns” do not appear in print.
"He probably misses his old glasses."
oh
they made it sound like it was in the paper. So the P-D pays Gordon to blog? No wonder they’re bankrupt.
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
Why did I talk myself into reading this?
The grit… it burns! It burns!
Stupid UCL's.
by Bring Back Tommy Herr! on Dec 14, 2011 1:29 PM EST up reply actions
Jeff Gordon
get paid to write this right?
I haven’t been this confused since the end of “No Way Out”
11 in '11!! To Infinity and Beyond!!! ...
You really have to read this.
Jeff Gordon.
No, thank you.
#HappySeason #SadOffSeason
by The Continental on Dec 14, 2011 4:25 PM EST up reply actions
Reel Big Fish's "Beer"
A song that should be listened to and danced awkwardly to (usually alone in your house/apartment) at least once a month.
I once shot a man just to see him die...then I got distracted and missed it.
heh
Why Jeff Bagwell Should Not Make the Hall of Fame: An In-Depth Study
Sign Hong-Chih Kuo
by tehzachatak on Dec 14, 2011 1:45 PM EST reply actions 3 recs
lol
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 1:47 PM EST up reply actions
months of research!!
"I still don’t understand what commercial is better than having me on tv" – Chris Carpenter
2011: Boog would've count 78
More than these moves themselves,
I hate the justification: You don’t sign the 25th man to your roster in december. The 25th man is just the last guy to make it out of spring training. Signing the 25th man today means you’re assuming you couldn’t do better, and with Matt Carp, Eduardo Sanchez, Adam Reifer, Kolten Wong, etc, there is no reason to expect you can’t.
"Congratulations to the Cardinals! Such a fun world series." - Salman Rushdie
I step out to the post office and to drop off some stuff at work, and this place goes plum crazy!
’tis the season!
VEB WINTER MEET-UP DISCUSSION
SIGN PRINCE FIELDER
Dear Danbjork,
Fix this too.
Thanks,
VEB
The negative waves. Always with the negative waves...
Elation. Sadness. Mayhem. Champagne. Sleepless fury. Never been a night like it. - Joe Posnanski
Greene at 2nd
Matheny has already communicated with Greene since the Furcal signing and told him to come into Spring Training prepared to compete for playing time at second.
by Fleabottom on Dec 14, 2011 2:01 PM EST reply actions 8 recs
hey matheny, i like your style
"I still don’t understand what commercial is better than having me on tv" – Chris Carpenter
2011: Boog would've count 78
communicating expectations?
what is this?
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
greene it people
You teach me baseball and I'll teach you relativity. No, we must not. You will learn about relativity faster than I learn baseball. --Albert Einstein
2011 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!
FWIW, I think the categorisation of KMac as replacement-level is probably slightly harsh
He’s been a +ve as a reliever so far in his career (albeit only a very slight one). He was a bit unlucky on HR last year as a starter, although I think he’s a stretch to be even replacement-level in that role, and one year of having stretched out might help a bit (pretty sure he was above-replacement through his first 100 or so IP). His xFIP (4.16) also has out-performed his FIP (4.36) thus far in his career.
I’m kinda hoping we trade the guy, mind you, as his utility is hugely marginal, and I think tendering him was only worthwhile if he was going to be traded. But I think he’s done enough to suggest that he’s slightly better than Brandon Dickson or PJ Walters.
Still bitching to contact.
it's a harsh characterization as a reliever- i think he's above replacement level as a reliever, albeit very slightly
but i think he’s definitely at or below replacement level as a starter.
Sign Hong-Chih Kuo
he had a 4.25 xFIP in the rotation last year in 104 innings
I don’t think he’ replacement level as a starter.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 2:16 PM EST up reply actions
for someone without an intuitive understanding of what FIPs correspond to what WARs over what amount of IP
you’re saying he’s above replacement level as a starter?
Sign Hong-Chih Kuo
I think so
4.25 xFIP is slightly below league average for a starting pitcher. It’s only 100 innings, but that’s enough to raise our projection of KMac to “above replacement level” in the rotation.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 2:21 PM EST up reply actions
ok, i guess i could maybe buy that
i have an irrational hatred of KMac that biases all my arguments toward him, which probably came from my irrational support of KMac as a starter, and then him spitting it in my face
Sign Hong-Chih Kuo
So far all I can find it the 2010 league average xFIP on Fangraphs, and that was 4.23
However, I’m assuming the 2011 average will be lower than that for 2011, since the league-average FIP went from 4.20 in 2010 to 4.12 in 2011.
Blah. I meant that I assume the average xFIP will be lower for 2011 than it was for 2010
because that’s what regular FIP did.
You can say that again.
oh, wait….
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
FWIW, I think the categorisation of KMac as replacement-level is probably slightly harsh
He’s been a +ve as a reliever so far in his career (albeit only a very slight one). He was a bit unlucky on HR last year as a starter, although I think he’s a stretch to be even replacement-level in that role, and one year of having stretched out might help a bit (pretty sure he was above-replacement through his first 100 or so IP). His xFIP (4.16) also has out-performed his FIP (4.36) thus far in his career.
I’m kinda hoping we trade the guy, mind you, as his utility is hugely marginal, and I think tendering him was only worthwhile if he was going to be traded. But I think he’s done enough to suggest that he’s slightly better than Brandon Dickson or PJ Walters.
Still bitching to contact.
Looks like it was a productive lunch hour for VEB
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
i just think at this point people pretty much know who stands where on the rasmus
and wallace trades. it doesn’t seem particularly fruitful to have this argument again.
it is what it is, not what we thought it'd be
hey

"He probably misses his old glasses."
by Alxfritz on Dec 14, 2011 2:24 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
This might be the most offensive thing post here today
The negative waves. Always with the negative waves...
Elation. Sadness. Mayhem. Champagne. Sleepless fury. Never been a night like it. - Joe Posnanski
posted
The negative waves. Always with the negative waves...
Elation. Sadness. Mayhem. Champagne. Sleepless fury. Never been a night like it. - Joe Posnanski
Speaking of WS jerseys.
Bought Berkman’s and Yadi’s from MLB.com while they had their buy one get one 50% off. Both are back ordered for a month. Yadi’s is going to be a late Christmas present
bollocks
by SecondHalfMatt on Dec 14, 2011 3:35 PM EST up reply actions
No
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
I just glanced at it
I mean, yeah, it’s not a terrible trade for the Red Sox, given their needs and roster construction. It’s just a really good one for the Astros
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
i've been convinced its a pretty good deal for both sides.
I never realized the extent of Lowrie’s problems – guy can’t stay on the field. But if Weiland can stick as a starter for the ’Stros he might be worth Melancon by himself
But the Sox surely could've found a 3.5 FIP pitcher for less, correct?
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
I don't know. Probably? I really don't know anything about Weiland besides a two-sentence blurb.
The Sox are obviously concerned with $$$ as part of the rationale is that Melancon costs peanuts and is under team control for the next 5 years. And Normandin made a comment that Lowrie has been on the block for like 3 years so the Sox had a pretty good idea of his value.
It’s also decent leverage in Madson negotiations (if they are still in it – speculation on my part).
It seems like Atlanta might have dealt them a better arm for Lowrie
than what they got, but maybe Boston and Atlanta don’t talk trade much other than over Edgar Renteria.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
The Reds are interested in Ryan Theriot
"I don’t like the feeling of losing."---Chris Carpenter
by cardsfan59 on Dec 14, 2011 2:28 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
YAY!!!!
Go get ’em Walt!
Mike Shannon: "That strikeout was brought to you by...by...well, I don't know what it was brought to you by!"
John Rooney: "It wasn't brought to you by anything Mike."
Hey...
if you’re “frustrated” in your pursuit of Jair Jurrjens, there’s nothing left to do but contact the agents for Ryan Theriot and Joe Saunders…
It’s not like Brandon Phillips, Todd Frazier, and Cairo can cover second all by themselves.
Sign Roy O
If you can't sign the pitcher you want
you can at least sign someone who hits like the pitcher you want.
by brackenthebox on Dec 14, 2011 2:36 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
god that's almost as bad as braun
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 2:32 PM EST up reply actions
Do not share this now!
Wait until after he signs with the Reds!
The negative waves. Always with the negative waves...
Elation. Sadness. Mayhem. Champagne. Sleepless fury. Never been a night like it. - Joe Posnanski
Good news everyone!
Bursting into song.
by Aranathor on Dec 14, 2011 2:43 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
everybody be real quiet
maybe they’ll really take him if we don’t say anything
"I still don’t understand what commercial is better than having me on tv" – Chris Carpenter
2011: Boog would've count 78
we were in first place when he was the starting shortstop. i know that!
it is what it is.
Mike Shannon: "That strikeout was brought to you by...by...well, I don't know what it was brought to you by!"
John Rooney: "It wasn't brought to you by anything Mike."
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
"He’s not a great golden god come from the sky. He’s a fucking baseball player."
-the red baron
by stlcardinalsfang on Dec 14, 2011 3:44 PM EST up reply actions
Of course they are.
He’s a former Cardinal.
#HappySeason #SadOffSeason
by The Continental on Dec 14, 2011 4:29 PM EST up reply actions
fourstick
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 2:35 PM EST up reply actions
...would like VEP to admit, for once,
that he might have been wrong about the Holliday trade. Just once. I don’t think it’s that hard. Oh, and that Mo is a pretty good GM and that the club didn’t have much choice but to let Luhnow take the Astros job.
Alas, no. It was not to be. Stubborn and arrogant as ever, he sidles on.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
by fourstick on Dec 14, 2011 2:41 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Man
you guys are like an old married couple, its pretty endearing.
Bursting into song.
by Aranathor on Dec 14, 2011 2:42 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
There's absolutely no way we could have grown old together in this analogy
I would have killed him and ended up in prison by age 40 I’d imagine. But now he’ll just argue that he would have killed me and then show me some spreadsheet that will favor him in a street fight with weapons by 1.46%. And that even when I win the fight, he’ll still be right because he “should have won”.
Question Answered: Not Pujols. Not Luhnow either. WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO MY TEAM?!?!?!
by fourstick on Dec 14, 2011 2:57 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I wish he would. That would be an entertaining spreadsheet.
I hope that it would have different win probabilities for different weapons. I would give him an advantage with most throwing and shooting weapons. Fourstick an advantage with slashing or stabbing weapon. Even odds on blunt force weapons and explosive weapons.
Mike Shannon: "That strikeout was brought to you by...by...well, I don't know what it was brought to you by!"
John Rooney: "It wasn't brought to you by anything Mike."
by SheckieZx on Dec 14, 2011 3:22 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Skip...meh.
Simpsons reference
Politics!
No Politics!
KMac…why?
Luhnow gets Lowrie and Weiland for Melancon
VEP v fourstick
Bad Fangraphs article about Rasmus trade is bad
The Angelic Pujols in videogame form
Beltran? Ross? Crisp?
Reds want Theriot
The negative waves. Always with the negative waves...
Elation. Sadness. Mayhem. Champagne. Sleepless fury. Never been a night like it. - Joe Posnanski
I think I am getting a Flow-Bee for Christmas
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 14, 2011 3:55 PM EST up reply actions
You mean
Suck-Cut!
The negative waves. Always with the negative waves...
Elation. Sadness. Mayhem. Champagne. Sleepless fury. Never been a night like it. - Joe Posnanski
Addendum:
Fritz still lives in high school.
The negative waves. Always with the negative waves...
Elation. Sadness. Mayhem. Champagne. Sleepless fury. Never been a night like it. - Joe Posnanski
Some people argued, some people laughed...
but in the end, everyone secretly planned to go buy a tub of Ben & Jerry’s after work, cry about Pujols left us because we’re fat, and secretly wish Beltran would text us for a rebound.
WWCD? CDGAF.
Rebound?
Fuck, I’d settle for just a Beltran reacharound at this point.
Hmm. Ever wish you hadn’t said something, but couldn’t quite bring yourself to delete it, either?
I can do no wrong, for I do not know what it is.
by the red baron on Dec 15, 2011 4:03 AM EST up reply actions
Let's just all say a prayer
that at some point the post count trends back down . I can’t keep up with the site since the PUjols brouhaha started.
Projecting Furcal
So I was looking at Furcal’s numbers over the past few years, and a few things jumped out at me.
First, in 2008 he played in only 36 games but put up a whopping 2.2 WAR. Sheesh, that is nuts.
In 2009 and 2010, he put up 3.5 and 4.2 WAR.
Obviously in 2011 his WAR fell off a cliff, but he also had multiple injuries including a thumb injury which might have hampered his hitting after he returned.
Anyways, I suppose I’m saying I’m more optimistic now about him after looking a bit deeper.
The Cardinals are paying him to be worth about 3.11 WAR combined over the next two seasons.
If he is healthy, he has the potential to be much, much better than 3.11 WAR over the next two seasons. That is a big “if,” though.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I think even if he is only relatively healthy
He can surpass that.
by Cheeseballs on Dec 14, 2011 3:12 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
it's also true that even if he is healthy
he’s older every year. so he’s likely for some regression there anyhow. regardless, it’s a great signing imo.
not sure if nexdef'd
but Twins wth?
"I still don’t understand what commercial is better than having me on tv" – Chris Carpenter
2011: Boog would've count 78
by d-dee on Dec 14, 2011 2:59 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Fuck the heck?
Kumar: I don't know man, I lose my touch, man.
Dignan: Did you ever have a touch to lose, man?
spurs that jingle jangle jingle?
Cards fan in Seoul.
Albert Pujols is the hero saint louis deserves, but not the one it can afford right now. So we'll strike him out out because he can take it. Because he's not our hero. He's an A-Rod
by letsgostlcardinals on Dec 14, 2011 3:10 PM EST up reply actions
Can we get one of these with TLR?
Cards fan in Seoul.
Albert Pujols is the hero saint louis deserves, but not the one it can afford right now. So we'll strike him out out because he can take it. Because he's not our hero. He's an A-Rod
by letsgostlcardinals on Dec 14, 2011 3:11 PM EST up reply actions
personally I would have liked to see us drop
The kmac money on jo-jo reyes, who has the makings of an excellent second left-handed reliever (if we’re going to have one anyway), and could be a credible sixth or seventh starter if needed. Reyes was nontendered by the jays.
i used to be disgusted, but now i try to be amused . . . - macmanus
by tom s. on Dec 14, 2011 3:20 PM EST via mobile reply actions
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
what
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 3:39 PM EST up reply actions
ah damnit
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 3:41 PM EST up reply actions
Wait, this is kind of weird in the context of the Lowrie deal, right?
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
I guess Punto is cheaper than a 3.5 FIP reliever would have been, thereotically
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
not for the next 4 years though
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 3:45 PM EST up reply actions
I suspect it's a familiarity breeds contempt thing.
Bosox got tired of lowrie being injured and had general disatisfaction with him individually.
i used to be disgusted, but now i try to be amused . . . - macmanus
by tom s. on Dec 14, 2011 3:48 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
FUCK that's schumaker
God I hate you Mo.
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 3:45 PM EST up reply actions
same i think
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 3:48 PM EST up reply actions
NOOOOOOooooo
damnit
You teach me baseball and I'll teach you relativity. No, we must not. You will learn about relativity faster than I learn baseball. --Albert Einstein
2011 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!
Goddamnit, Mo.
#HappySeason #SadOffSeason
by The Continental on Dec 14, 2011 4:31 PM EST up reply actions
puntogone.
god i’d love to have him on the team rather than schumaker. that’s probably at least a 1.5 win difference.
"He’s not a great golden god come from the sky. He’s a fucking baseball player."
-the red baron
by stlcardinalsfang on Dec 14, 2011 3:41 PM EST reply actions
poop.
i agree. i loved me some Punto.
Mike Shannon: "That strikeout was brought to you by...by...well, I don't know what it was brought to you by!"
John Rooney: "It wasn't brought to you by anything Mike."
He's 34
And just had the highest wOBA of his career.
I’ll miss the Shreader, but I’m quite certain he won’t ever come close to hitting like that again.
better than skip though
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 3:48 PM EST up reply actions
Yes, but
technically, Skip isn’t replacing him, Descalso or Greene are.
Its been made clear that Skip is going to be an OF bench player. Punto is an IF bench player. Whichever of Descalso or Greene are sitting the bench will assume the Punto role.
That makes sense, and I'd actually rather give Descalso and Greene a shot
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 3:52 PM EST up reply actions
i don't give a shit what he does with the bat.
the difference between him playing second base and skip “playing” second base is enough.
"He’s not a great golden god come from the sky. He’s a fucking baseball player."
-the red baron
by stlcardinalsfang on Dec 14, 2011 3:50 PM EST up reply actions
and the fact punto plays two infield positions well.
skip plays one infield position and two outfield positions poorly and his bat doesn’t justify him ever playing outfield anyway.
"He’s not a great golden god come from the sky. He’s a fucking baseball player."
-the red baron
by stlcardinalsfang on Dec 14, 2011 3:50 PM EST up reply actions
I would suggest not comparing Skip and Shreader
Since Skip will likely see very, very little time at 2nd and clearly won’t see any time at the other positions.
why not though?
we were probably going to sign one and not the other and punto is a better player. period.
"He’s not a great golden god come from the sky. He’s a fucking baseball player."
-the red baron
by stlcardinalsfang on Dec 14, 2011 3:55 PM EST up reply actions
I disagree
I feel the team felt that Greene/Descalso covered Punto, so it wasn’t an either/or scenario between Punto or Schumaker.
Basically, they see Schumaker as a Chamber/Patterson replacement and Greene/Descalso as the Punto replacement.
by Fleabottom on Dec 14, 2011 3:56 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Obviously
I just mean the utility OF replacement. It just happens to be that Patterson had that role at the end of the season.
I don't miss Punto as much as you guys
He lead baseball in LD% last year.
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 14, 2011 3:59 PM EST up reply actions
he definitely played over his head offensively last year
but he is a smooth fielder, which is appreciated ’round these parts.
He would be taking at bats away from Tyler Greene
It is time to make a decision on him.
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 14, 2011 4:02 PM EST up reply actions
too much pine tar, it was stuck to his hand!
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
Watched the first episode of Homeland
I knew I would like the show the instant Captain Winters appeared than fell in love when Anara was his wife.
The negative waves. Always with the negative waves...
Elation. Sadness. Mayhem. Champagne. Sleepless fury. Never been a night like it. - Joe Posnanski
That one is worth
ALL OF THE WORDS.
The negative waves. Always with the negative waves...
Elation. Sadness. Mayhem. Champagne. Sleepless fury. Never been a night like it. - Joe Posnanski
A cellist and a marsupial walk into a bathroom...
The negative waves. Always with the negative waves...
Elation. Sadness. Mayhem. Champagne. Sleepless fury. Never been a night like it. - Joe Posnanski
They look at each other and both say at the same time:
“Well, at least you’re not a viola player”
by mattybobo on Dec 14, 2011 4:18 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
So much for team chemistry!
Laird first , then Theriot. Now Punto. So much for a loose clubhouse. These guys filled the gaps in more ways than the production players could provide. Stats aren’t everything! Chemistry kept the magical run moving!
CliffNotes: "My Dad wanted me to be a baseball player!"
Roy Hobbs: "The Natural"
are you saying...
we blinded them science?!?
Mike Shannon: "That strikeout was brought to you by...by...well, I don't know what it was brought to you by!"
John Rooney: "It wasn't brought to you by anything Mike."
Chemistry!
Exactly! Thomas Dolby sang it well!
CliffNotes: "My Dad wanted me to be a baseball player!"
Roy Hobbs: "The Natural"
I don't remember Thomas Dolby singing about chemistry
Ad Maiorem Tortius Gloriam
by peppermartin on Dec 14, 2011 4:20 PM EST up reply actions
Thats cause he didn't play baseball
CliffNotes: "My Dad wanted me to be a baseball player!"
Roy Hobbs: "The Natural"
Fun fact
Another thing Thomas Dolby DIDN’T do was invent Dolby digital surround sound. It’s a common misconception.
Ad Maiorem Tortius Gloriam
by peppermartin on Dec 14, 2011 4:29 PM EST up reply actions
Right
Ray Dolby was the inventor. He had a son named Thomas who was not a rock musician.
Beer and Baseball. Baseball and Beer. It's not hard to reevaluate your priorities when you only have two.
by PugetSoundCardsAddict on Dec 14, 2011 4:34 PM EST up reply actions
Matheny?
I think Mike’s going to have his hands full trying to earn players respect!
CliffNotes: "My Dad wanted me to be a baseball player!"
Roy Hobbs: "The Natural"
pujols and holliday chemistried the fuck out of the baseball too
by all4tookie on Dec 14, 2011 4:14 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
No, that's physics actually.
If we’re talking about chemistry, that’s Ryan Braun
by mattybobo on Dec 14, 2011 4:16 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
chemistry is just applied physics
so it all evens out
by brackenthebox on Dec 14, 2011 4:18 PM EST up reply actions
because I can't turn down a chance to post xkcd
by brackenthebox on Dec 14, 2011 4:21 PM EST up reply actions
if i may be so bold,
once mathematicians can explain the laws of the universe, they’ll always be lower than physicists. full disclosure: i’m a physicist.
yeah but physics can only explain what we can detect
with philosophy we can make wild, unverifiable guesses about what lays beyond!
Secretary of WAR and Defense of the Tyler Greene Fanclub.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 14, 2011 4:28 PM EST up reply actions
I'd say that "laws" start to break down around the time you go from chemistry to biology
sadly, I’m on the other side of that line, but at least we still have experiments
by brackenthebox on Dec 14, 2011 4:30 PM EST up reply actions
You have to be one charming guy
For me to want you more than a winner.
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 14, 2011 4:16 PM EST up reply actions
yeah, i also consider Molina and Laird screaming at each other good chemistry
oh wait…
"I still don’t understand what commercial is better than having me on tv" – Chris Carpenter
2011: Boog would've count 78
Can someone explain babip to me?
batting average balls in play right? So does that just reflect how often someone strikes out?
Baseball was designed to break your heart
It is a measure of how often the balls hit into play turn into hits
So it leaves out both K’s and walks.
So, the average hitter has a BABIP of something like .300, usually
Which means that about 30% of the time a ball is hit into play it turns into an actual hit instead of an out.
Batting average on balls in play
so, if every ball you put into play is a hit, your babip would be 1.000. If every ball you put into play becomes an out, your babip would be .000.
Because Matheny
That is what I thought
which leads me to my next question… How can you say that someone with a high babip is getting lucky… or even someone with a high linedrive percentage is getting lucky? Arent those good measurements of a hitter being on his game…. (aside from the punch and judys of course)
Baseball was designed to break your heart
It's like any other stat... have to look at it in combination with other things.
If a batter has a higher power stats in addition to an above average BABIP, it’s probably less likely it’s luck. But if a batter with low power has one season that they had a significantly higher BABIP than the rest of their seasons… there’s a good chance they just got really lucky.
WWCD? CDGAF.
Best example of BABIP was Aaron Miles last year.
When he had his ridiculously high batting average a good way through the season. I remember talking about one of his games with a coworker, where I think he had 3 hits, and they were all ungodly slow dribblers to a gap where he got in base because fielders were almost running in to get to the ball. How a guy manages to get on base 3 times in one game with little blip hits like that is just plain luck.
WWCD? CDGAF.
Here's a really long article
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
It's the % of times you hit the ball into fair play and get on base without an error.
So if you have 4 bats in a game, ground out twice, get one hit, and strike out once, your BA would be .250 but your BABIP would be .333.
WWCD? CDGAF.
by JStymie on Dec 14, 2011 4:16 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I was given these... now I give them to you... use them wisely.
"I don't know, but it works. Doin it for Torty works... He brings us luck and we're gonna roll with it." Allen Craig
The debate comes down to oppuruntity cost vs depth
Most of you seem to be coming in the opportunity cost side of the equation. While the organization sided with depth. I tend to agree with the organization. While I am not necessarily in favor of keeping Skip and K-Mac. The idea of relative small cost to provide depth for Spring Training and 162+ games. We got the money. Plus, it still allows us to find the value of Descalo and Greene. With still room for Beltran and a solid LOOGY. The Cardinals are shaping up for another run. When you factor in the minor league depth we will still be solid if we get some injuries.
So, I'm bringing out the dead horse again
but have we been deceived, as Deidre Pujols says? I’m inclined to think there’s a possiblity, and that BDW already made up his mind on shedding Pujols after he rejected the initial 9-year offer from spring training.
Ad Maiorem Tortius Gloriam
I actually agree with you Peppermartin
I am not ruling out the possibility that Albert had a good reason to be upset… I do not think we will ever really know
Baseball was designed to break your heart
maybe dewitt didn't want pujols in the end (thought i think he did)
but that doesn’t change the fact that he offered him huge contracts over the past two years.
ya I am not happy with Albert regardless
Think what he did was wrong
Baseball was designed to break your heart
Deidre never said what the final contract was on the table
combine that with the quickness that they signed with the angels, Im going to say it had a lot to do with the 254 Million, and the Cardinals would have never been able to come close to that number.
Grit != flat out sucking.
No, no, no.
I don’t buy it at all. You have to look at the context of her statement — by making that statement, she’s pretending the original 9 year, $22m AAV offer in January never happened. Saying that the Cardinals’ Front Office came out the gate with a 5 year open is being deceiving. The Cardinals offered $22m per year for nine years first, Albert rejected it. So they tried higher AAV @ 5 years, Albert once again rejected it and apparently was offended. They they came back with the final 10 year offer.
It’s stupid for them to be pretending the January offer never happened. What was BDW supposed to do, repeat the same offer Albert already rejected?
WWCD? CDGAF.
Well the perceived problem is that the 9-year deal wasn't the basis for opening discussions this offseason
Of course I have no idea what was specifically communicated, in addition to the “no” from the Pujols camp, between the parties in between the time the initial 9-year offer was made and when the 5 year offer was made.

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