Wednesday Appetizer: A Fangraphs Q&A with Gloveman Extraordinaire Brendan Ryan
by bgh on Nov 30, 2011 10:06 AM EST
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I know that I should just get over the Brendan Ryan trade because we won the 2011 World Series (#11in11!) and we have a young starter who throws 100 MPH that will start the season in Memphis. But I enjoyed his defense and his quirks too much to let go so quickly--just look at this photo of him sporting a Fu Manchu mustache, for example. So when Ryan does a fairly long interview with Fangraphs, in which he discusses life in the St. Louis Cardinals farm system, I am still at a point where I will share it with you. Here is a hint of the interview's content:
When you think about the minor leagues, Clinton, Iowa is the type of town that comes to mind. When you drive in, you’re overwhelmed with the smell of dog food — I think that’s what it is — so you really want to wear a mask. With the Cardinals, we always had pretty good cities, though. Springfield is probably as good of a Double-A town as you’re going to find.
Enjoy the Fangraphs Q&A with Brendan Ryan and discuss what you will.
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What is with the Cards and Ryans?
Hope that’s not a trend in terms of results…
Cards fan in Middle East
about the same as with the Carps
who can explain infatuation?
Johnny Gomes could not be reached for comment
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Nov 30, 2011 10:32 AM EST up reply actions
as long as we skip the Todds.
would've.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Nov 30, 2011 10:54 AM EST up reply actions
Stottlemyre had 2.5 good seasons
but you’re right about Burns and Wellemeyer
Beer and Baseball. Baseball and Beer. It's not hard to reevaluate your priorities when you only have two.
by PugetSoundCardsAddict on Nov 30, 2011 11:37 AM EST up reply actions
Todd Helton. . .
had a nice career.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Nov 30, 2011 11:38 AM EST up reply actions
doing it RIGHT
"I got to get Dr. Freeze off my twig right now."-Nyjer Morgan
by flipthebird15 on Nov 30, 2011 11:46 AM EST up reply actions
Big head was a monster.
#HappySeason
by The Continental on Nov 30, 2011 2:54 PM EST up reply actions
go look at the reply in yesterday's thread about nickel creek shows
hint- it will make your 4x as jealous
"Albert hits good pitches hard and bad pitches even harder. And when he gets in the batter's box, if you pray, then you start praying. And if you don't pray, you think about starting."--Brian Bannister
Trevor Rosenthal Update (as of end of regular season)
120 1/3IP, 133 K, 52 BB/HBP, 55 ER, 7 HR, 3.04 FIP
Postseason: 2 Starts- 15 IP, 9 H, 10 K, 2 BB, 3 ER, 19:10 GO:AO
by VolsnCards5 on Nov 30, 2011 12:59 PM EST up reply actions
Sure didn't work for
Theriot.
IHeartIHeartBoog
gibby45 is one of the less creepy people on this blog. - IHeartBoog
Let's see:
Brendan
Franklin
Theriot
I know I’m missing someone…
Oh right – Luddy!
Cards fan in Middle East
I'm gonna apply some synergy with the last thread for a little tribute to Ryan
But I can see you
You mustache shining in the sun
You got your cap tipped back and your
Sunglasses on, baby
I can tell you my love for you will still be strong
After the boys of summer have gone
by mattybobo on Nov 30, 2011 10:26 AM EST up reply actions 12 recs
Don Henley
Gotta love it!
IHeartIHeartBoog
gibby45 is one of the less creepy people on this blog. - IHeartBoog
Don Henley must die!
Don’t let him get back together with Glenn Frey!
Sorry, couldn’t resist the urge to quote Mojo Nixon. Carry on.
youneverknow
by floodOfLove on Nov 30, 2011 10:55 AM EST up reply actions
Let them get back together
They could start their 6th farewell tour.
IHeartIHeartBoog
gibby45 is one of the less creepy people on this blog. - IHeartBoog
by Gibby45 on Nov 30, 2011 12:19 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Elvis is everywhere
he’s in Nutty Buddies!
"I actually used about nine pitches--two different fastballs, two sliders, a curve, a changeup, knockdown, brushback, and hit-batsman" - Bob Gibson
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Nov 30, 2011 1:38 PM EST up reply actions
"It's kind of an improv thing."
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
BJ Rains has posted a Q&A with Mo
Here’s an excerpt of the interview:
FSMidwest: Where are you right now in terms of finding a shortstop?
Mozeliak: We’re open to exploring the shortstop market but we also feel like there is some sentiment to give Tyler Greene a chance. Internally, there is a debate on trying to give him that opportunity, give him that job, and we haven’t ruled that out. We just want to make sure that we have balance offensively and with the club currently constituted, we do think we could score enough runs and we do think he’s a type of offensive player that is a threat at the plate.
I do think it would be a nice confidence boost if he just knew the job was his. We can’t guarantee it today but its certainly something we’re talking about.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Nov 30, 2011 10:35 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
(gasp)
"I still don’t understand what commercial is better than having me on tv" – Chris Carpenter
2011: Boog would've count 78
Reading between the lines:
- “He’s out of options, so if we don’t use him we lose him”
- “Greene OPS’d 1.000 in AAA in July and August and he costs league minimum.”
- “We need Ryan Jackson to play every day in AAA, so a minor league contract is out of the question.”
- “Rafael Furcal can go f*** himself if he thinks that we’re remotely considering giving him 2 guaranteed years.
Pujols or not Pujols. That is the question.
by fourstick on Nov 30, 2011 11:31 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
All of the above
Beer and Baseball. Baseball and Beer. It's not hard to reevaluate your priorities when you only have two.
by PugetSoundCardsAddict on Nov 30, 2011 11:38 AM EST up reply actions
If Ryan Jackson plays full time in Memphis
What does Kozma do?
by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 30, 2011 12:40 PM EST up reply actions
Flips burgers?
Bullpen catcher?
Coverts to a relief pitcher?
I don’t much fucking care what they do with Pete Kozma, but just because he was a #1 pick does not mean he should stand in the way of better players like Ryan Jackson.
Pujols or not Pujols. That is the question.
I agree
Ryan Jackson is my favorite prospect right now.
by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 30, 2011 12:59 PM EST up reply actions
It depends on whether he can defeat Donovan Salano in a fight to the death for second base.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Pete Kozma 6-0/170
Donovan Solano 5-8/185
Combined walk rate: 11.9%
"Congratulations to the Cardinals! Such a fun world series." - Salman Rushdie
Kozma's screwed
Secretary of WAR and defense (Tyler Greene Fanclub). PUT TYLER ON THE GREENE.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 30, 2011 12:46 PM EST up reply actions
Sure, but what's their reach?
Do either of them have special skills, such as grappling or jujitsu?
What are their constitution rankings?
Pujols or not Pujols. That is the question.
In that case, get ready to cut them both
As soon as our A and A+ second baseman are ready to move up.
Pujols or not Pujols. That is the question.
Maybe he can become a Cesar Izturis?
His defense is MLB ready isn’t it? Maybe he can still save the Cards money on a defense-first backup MIF.
"I don't want to achieve immortality through my work; I want to achieve immortality through not dying. I don't want to live on in the hearts of my countrymen; I want to live on in my apartment." -- Woody Allen
by Cardinals645 on Nov 30, 2011 2:15 PM EST up reply actions
Go Mo!
Secretary of WAR and defense (Tyler Greene Fanclub). PUT TYLER ON THE GREENE.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 30, 2011 11:42 AM EST up reply actions
Mo is in the know
and he’s letting it show. Which is a really goddamn stupid way to say, every day Mo seems like a more and more competent GM.
my favorite words are goodbye and my favorite color is red
by mattyp on Nov 30, 2011 11:59 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Hooray
Secretary of WAR and defense (Tyler Greene Fanclub). PUT TYLER ON THE GREENE.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 30, 2011 12:02 PM EST up reply actions
I was satisfied with every single answer he said.
Or at least, all of his answers were what I would want to do. Give Greene a shot. Stick with our bullpen. Internal SP options are good enough.
I mean I’ve never seen an interview that said all the right things like that. Things to come now that LaRussa is gone…?
will do ANYTHING for a rec
by stlcardsfan4 on Nov 30, 2011 1:05 PM EST up reply actions
GODAMMIT I WAS NOT PREPARED FOR THIS FRONT PAGE
would've.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
[MOAR EXPLETIVES]
would've.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Nov 30, 2011 10:44 AM EST up reply actions
[DEROGATORY COMMENTS ABOUT RELATIVES]
would've.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Nov 30, 2011 10:48 AM EST up reply actions
WEEP
would've.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Nov 30, 2011 10:48 AM EST up reply actions
hang on, I have rended anything yet.
guess i should put on pants first
would've.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Nov 30, 2011 10:49 AM EST up reply actions
^haven't
would've.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Nov 30, 2011 10:50 AM EST up reply actions
guess I should haven't put on pants first?
hehe
2012 MLB All Star Game FanFest: July 6-10 at the Kansas City Convention Center! Ask me for more info!
since it's an old, old tag
here’s the Boog and Bombs Show
http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/search?tag=boogtv
let’s hope search cooperates.
would've.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
unfortunately search does not cooperate, so here goes
http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2009/8/11/985123/boog-the-mix-tape
would've.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Nov 30, 2011 10:54 AM EST up reply actions
woot has
Some of you alcoholics might enjoy them. Or not. I don’t know. All I know is f’n Flim has me checking woot every day now to see if there is something I don’t need to blow money on.
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
And purchased.
I’ve been eyeing these for some time, and this is a pretty good price.
RE-SIGN ALBERT PUJOLS!
It is.
I think I paid $16 for mine on Amazon.
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Second base….I’ve played second base, how hard can it be? -TLR
Also, Dave Concepcion.
This is the second time you've linked me to something I've bought.
Have you considered giving up your pt career? You’d be a terrific personal shopper.
RE-SIGN ALBERT PUJOLS!
I'll take it
you just have to repay my six figure student loan debt AND pay me six figures. Deal?
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
I can offer you $12 a month and some nice toothpaste (we buy it in bulk).
RE-SIGN ALBERT PUJOLS!
by a fink on Nov 30, 2011 11:25 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I don't remember, but it's not sweet and chemically like those nasty things most people use.
Lemme check.. Bert’s Bees makes it.
RE-SIGN ALBERT PUJOLS!
You don't make your own toothpaste?
animal
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
I see me dropping these a little hard on say round 4
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
You need about 3 sets if you want them to make it to round four.
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Second base….I’ve played second base, how hard can it be? -TLR
Also, Dave Concepcion.
Just grabbed 3 sets for Christmas gifts.
I paid $20 for my set of 5, so this is a really damn good price on these.
Just don’t confuse them with ice cubes….
Pujols or not Pujols. That is the question.
On Amazon, they're between $15 and $20 with some free shipping options, so the woot deal is definitely a good deal.
RE-SIGN ALBERT PUJOLS!
people should know, however, that Woot takes
fooooooorrrrrreeeeeeeverrrrr to ship. Unless they’ve changed, they use that stupid smartpost system, which sometimes takes up to 2 weeks.
my favorite words are goodbye and my favorite color is red
Everything I've ever bought from them gets to me in less than a week.
And I buy a lot of useless crap from them. It’s starting to fill up the basement…
So you’ve apparently had some bad luck.
Pujols or not Pujols. That is the question.
Woot! doesn't ship smartpost
unless you see the little snail logo below the writeup.
by DeWitt4Torty on Nov 30, 2011 5:35 PM EST up reply actions
this would be a good stocking stuffer for my bf
You teach me baseball and I'll teach you relativity. No, we must not. You will learn about relativity faster than I learn baseball. --Albert Einstein
2011 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!
purchased. thanks scoot. i get the daily woot email but i almost never read it.
what happens if you use these for vodka, just out of curiosity?
You teach me baseball and I'll teach you relativity. No, we must not. You will learn about relativity faster than I learn baseball. --Albert Einstein
2011 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!
you have vodka that is not watered down.
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Second base….I’ve played second base, how hard can it be? -TLR
Also, Dave Concepcion.
excellent. i should probably buy two sets
but what if i have like vodka on the rocks with a lemon twist or something? i guess i’m wondering if the lemon/lime/club soda/whatever will wear down the stones.
You teach me baseball and I'll teach you relativity. No, we must not. You will learn about relativity faster than I learn baseball. --Albert Einstein
2011 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!
no. They're soapstone.
They wash off fine, and won’t wear out.
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Second base….I’ve played second base, how hard can it be? -TLR
Also, Dave Concepcion.
well that's good because apparently i can't go back and buy another set. wtf
You teach me baseball and I'll teach you relativity. No, we must not. You will learn about relativity faster than I learn baseball. --Albert Einstein
2011 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!
yeah, I just discovered that. I called my dad and had him buy 3 more. Shipping is better the more you get, of course.
RE-SIGN ALBERT PUJOLS!
i'm just gonna set up another account.
You teach me baseball and I'll teach you relativity. No, we must not. You will learn about relativity faster than I learn baseball. --Albert Einstein
2011 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!
This all reminds me of Eddie Valiant
“Scotch on the rocks… and I MEAN ICE!”
by mattybobo on Nov 30, 2011 12:14 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
with everyone thanking me
I feel like I should buy myself a set even though I don’t drink. I mean, I could use them in Dr. Pepper, right?
Also, maybe I should report to your next AA meeting as an enabler
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
Eh, I don't drink whiskey (or any hard alcohol regularly save martinis) but I'll have them on hands for my guests.
MY GUESTS THANK YOU, SCOOT!
"He probably misses his old glasses."
Saw this in the local paper today:
LINCOLN SALTDOGS—Signed RHP Wade Mackey and OF CJ Beatty.
Is that Nebraska? poor CJ.
HITTIN UP NEBRASKA, WAT UP LAYDES?
"I got to get Dr. Freeze off my twig right now."-Nyjer Morgan
by flipthebird15 on Nov 30, 2011 11:50 AM EST up reply actions
Boog angst is soooooo. . .
March 2011.
/ obligatory Wooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!
by SouthsideCardsFan on Nov 30, 2011 11:20 AM EST reply actions
I miss boog too.
Sounds like he has grown up and TLR has gone. Can we have a re-do?
TortyCraig
My guess as to the meaning of Yadi's neck tattoos is that they are the symbols from an ancient civilization for "Caught Stealing."
I think I'd prefer to just keep Cleito.
Ryan is 30 years old and a little redundant with Greene and Jackson.
Life is tough, but it's tougher if you're stupid.
- John Wayne
Yup
It was nice while it lasted, but Brendan Ryan is just not the kind of player that you go out of your way to bring back.
Er, what do you mean "go out of your way"?
The only thing that matters is if the players you’d give up to get him are worse than Boog for the team.
If we could get Boog by trading Greene and Cleto, would you do it?
Secretary of WAR and defense (Tyler Greene Fanclub). PUT TYLER ON THE GREENE.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 30, 2011 11:44 AM EST up reply actions
Hm...
I don’t think I could trade both those guys to have Ryan back, no. I might be too optimistic about both of them. But it makes no sense to me. We traded Ryan to get Cleto. Why trade Cleto plus another middle infielder who might actually turn out OK if we give him a chance to get Ryan back?
I agree with you that the phrase “go out of your way” is kind of vague. If we could get him back for cheap then it makes sense, since he’s probably still at least an average player with his defense (it’s not like 30 is 35, even for middle infielders).
Well I think the original trade was very lopsided
So we’d have to trade more than we got to get Boog back. That wouldn’t mean we’d be giving up excessive value for Boog.
Cleto might have value if he becomes a starter, but I’m not very optimistic about that.
Secretary of WAR and defense (Tyler Greene Fanclub). PUT TYLER ON THE GREENE.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 30, 2011 11:54 AM EST up reply actions
I getcha
I just don’t see the point of giving up guys with potential to get Ryan back when we could conceivably end up with Furcal (expensive but we don’t have to trade anybody) or Greene (not expensive at all, already have him) and Jackson down the pipeline (hopefully not that far down) who could be a similar player to Ryan.
Yeah at this point, I'm fine with Greene being the starting shortstop until Ryan Jackson maybe
Furcal is about as good as Boog I think, but judging by the free agent market so far, he’ll cost twice as much as Boog over the next two years. Boog is our best option of we want to keep payroll low and have a high quality shortstop.
Secretary of WAR and defense (Tyler Greene Fanclub). PUT TYLER ON THE GREENE.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 30, 2011 12:09 PM EST up reply actions
well, I could see payroll taking a healthy bump this year
in which case I’d rather have Furcal, but I assume most if not all of that increase will go the Hu-mang Fund.
my favorite words are goodbye and my favorite color is red
I'm starting to come around and concede that you have a very good point
We at least know that Brendan Ryan is (kind of) a sure thing. His defense will be very very good or even league-leading caliber. So he’ll probably be an average player (unless he hits like 2010, but I think even he would be hard-pressed to hit that badly for a whole year again). I don’t like the idea of trading Greene to get Ryan, since Greene is sort of Ryan Insurance. Cleto is interesting but I’d be much more willing to just trade him back for Ryan by himself. Or Greene by himself. Both of them just feels like too much, not based on a careful study or anything.
In 2010, he was still worth 1.4 WAR, according to Fangraphs,
which is probably a little above league-average for WAR.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Does anybody know a reliable way to actually determine a good "league average" WAR figure?
The standard “it’s 2, more or less” answer is really inadequate for this kind of discussion. 1.4 seems low to me, but how much of that is just the bias of assuming it’s about 2 for so long?
So, what is Ryan's per 162 games?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
A lot higher
He’s been 3.0 WAR per 600 PA (about 145 games) over the past 3 years.
Secretary of WAR and defense (Tyler Greene Fanclub). PUT TYLER ON THE GREENE.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 30, 2011 12:22 PM EST up reply actions
about 4...
He played 1000 innings and accumulated 2.6 war, and there are around 1,450 innings in a season…
Sign Roy O
you can't compare to the average shorstop, that's selection bias
you have to compare to all players that have a chance at playing the bigs.
Secretary of WAR and defense (Tyler Greene Fanclub). PUT TYLER ON THE GREENE.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 30, 2011 12:23 PM EST up reply actions
Well...
there’ s always going to be a long tail of crap players like Kozma… I guess that makes just about any everyday player this side of Yuni above average.
My feeling is that those players are irrelevant given their minuscule playing time.
Sign Roy O
Well those players should be weighted down because of their miniscule playing time
If we’re talking “average”, we’re talking about average among all players, not just those who we’re starters.
Secretary of WAR and defense (Tyler Greene Fanclub). PUT TYLER ON THE GREENE.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 30, 2011 12:36 PM EST up reply actions
The league average WAR is always set at around 20.something runs over replacement level per 600 PA
So that’s where the 2 WAR comes from. But you have to adjust for plate appearances if you’re going to do that. Ryan had 486 PA in 2010, so league average WAR in that amount of PA would be about 1.6.
Secretary of WAR and defense (Tyler Greene Fanclub). PUT TYLER ON THE GREENE.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 30, 2011 12:21 PM EST up reply actions
HFS
someone on the internet just admitted that someone else might be right. This marks a new advance in human evolution. It’s a brave new world, people.
my favorite words are goodbye and my favorite color is red
next up, spaceships
Secretary of WAR and defense (Tyler Greene Fanclub). PUT TYLER ON THE GREENE.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 30, 2011 12:19 PM EST up reply actions
No I agree, Cleto and Greene are worth more than Ryan I think
Especially because they have many more cost controlled years (cleto won’t even be paid over the next 3 years). But because Greene plays the same position as Ryan and his not much cheaper, I would absolutely make that one for one swap. And if Cleto ends up being a reliever, he is the definition of fungible. It’s not hard to find a hard throwing reliever with control problems.
Secretary of WAR and defense (Tyler Greene Fanclub). PUT TYLER ON THE GREENE.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 30, 2011 12:19 PM EST up reply actions
I would totally trade Greene alone to get Ryan back
But I also would not say that such a trade would not be “going out of our way”. I don’t see such a quick-and-easy swap happening in the real world.
No,
I guess “going of our your way” would be having to find another player to even out the deal (because Greene for Ryan is lopsided).
I think Cleto is the perfect player to even out the deal. Because he has value, but will likely end up fungible to us in the near future.
Secretary of WAR and defense (Tyler Greene Fanclub). PUT TYLER ON THE GREENE.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 30, 2011 12:24 PM EST up reply actions
I see
Well put. Also, I realize I might seem to be contradicting myself because earlier I said I don’t like the idea of trading Greene in order to get a shortstop, but then I said I would “totally” do it. What I meant by that was that I would definitely pull the trigger but wouldn’t feel great about it. I think I am both more optimistic about Greene and Cleto than some. Anyway, hope that clears up that point if it was confusing.
I'm optomistic about Greene also
And I would really like to give him a shot next year, but I do think Ryan is better also. So I guess I’m on the same page is you.
Secretary of WAR and defense (Tyler Greene Fanclub). PUT TYLER ON THE GREENE.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 30, 2011 12:37 PM EST up reply actions
I wouldn't trade Greene and Cleto for Boog.
I think if they just gave the SS job to Greene he could put up the same WAR as Boog (plus he’s cheaper).
I think we’re underrating Cleto as a prospect. He’s as good a prospect as Delin Betances, for example. I have high hopes for him this year in AAA.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Nov 30, 2011 12:21 PM EST up reply actions
No way Greene should be expected to put up the same WAR as Ryan
As I said above, Ryan’s averaged 3 WAR per 600 PA over the past 3 years. Regress and age that and Boog is still a 2.5 WAR player next year. Greene is likely to be 1.5 WAR per 600 PA and that’s pushing it considering his performance (MLE adjusted) over the past 3 years. And Greene really isn’t much cheaper than Boog – the difference is less than 2 million per year I would think.
So I would trade Greene for Ryan in a heartbeat, but we’d need more to get Ryan. I picked Cleto to even out the deal (and for the symmetry), but it obviously depends on how much you value Cleto.
Secretary of WAR and defense (Tyler Greene Fanclub). PUT TYLER ON THE GREENE.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 30, 2011 12:28 PM EST up reply actions
why is greene only a 1.5 WAR player
none of really know what he can do. his MLE is .276/.358/.471. boog has never OPS’d anywhere near .800. greene provides a much higher offensive upside without significant defensive decline.
You teach me baseball and I'll teach you relativity. No, we must not. You will learn about relativity faster than I learn baseball. --Albert Einstein
2011 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!
Well that was his MLE repeating AAA at age 28
It’s also one partial season. Every other season of his career has been worse than that. Where do you find MLEs?
Secretary of WAR and defense (Tyler Greene Fanclub). PUT TYLER ON THE GREENE.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 30, 2011 12:44 PM EST up reply actions
i found the ones i cited on our fan page.
they were posted on 11/22
You teach me baseball and I'll teach you relativity. No, we must not. You will learn about relativity faster than I learn baseball. --Albert Einstein
2011 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!
Oh, I miss minorleaguesplits
Secretary of WAR and defense (Tyler Greene Fanclub). PUT TYLER ON THE GREENE.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 30, 2011 12:48 PM EST up reply actions
There's a zombie minorleaguesplits out there
Maybe even a couple. I can’t remember if all the features are there though.
and you're right that its based on 1/2 season of ABs
i didn’t catch that before.
You teach me baseball and I'll teach you relativity. No, we must not. You will learn about relativity faster than I learn baseball. --Albert Einstein
2011 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!
A lot of it comes down to expected defensive contribution
ZiPS hasn’t come out yet, but Bill James projects Ryan for a .278wOBA next year and Greene for a .316wOBA.
Ryan has been a +10UZR/150 SS and in Tyler’s limited chances at SS he’s been a +.8UZR/150 (not much to glean from the numbers – but I think Greene’s got plus range and arm at SS and will be above average.
In any event, I’m optimistic about Greene’s offense and defense if he’s given a chance. I still wouldnt trade Greene and Cleto for Ryan.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Nov 30, 2011 12:42 PM EST up reply actions
Would you trade Greene for Ryan?
Secretary of WAR and defense (Tyler Greene Fanclub). PUT TYLER ON THE GREENE.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 30, 2011 12:45 PM EST up reply actions
Straight up, yes, because there's more risk associated with Greene.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Nov 30, 2011 3:03 PM EST up reply actions
yes, and ryan has a higher median projection IMO
So how much would you be willing to trade on top of Greene to get Ryan?
Secretary of WAR and defense (Tyler Greene Fanclub). PUT TYLER ON THE GREENE.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 30, 2011 4:17 PM EST up reply actions
Frankly, not much (remember that I think Greene will put up the same WAR as Ryan if given the chance)
Maybe some money to cover Greene’s (low) salary? A C-level prospect outside our top 40?
Ryan does have a higher median projection but I think Greene has more upside (and I think it’s worth seeing if he can reach it).
by Willie McGee's Twin on Nov 30, 2011 4:50 PM EST up reply actions
No.
Because Ryan Jackson is Brendan Ryan v. 1.1 and is a half decade younger.
Boog is in arbitration, so I would give up less to get him back than we got for him in the first place.
Pujols or not Pujols. That is the question.
But we traded Boog for way less than his value in the original trade
Secretary of WAR and defense (Tyler Greene Fanclub). PUT TYLER ON THE GREENE.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 30, 2011 12:28 PM EST up reply actions
I agree
But that doesn’t mean I’m going to pony up as much or more to get him back. The ship has sailed, time to move on.
Pujols or not Pujols. That is the question.
eh, that's a platitude
Secretary of WAR and defense (Tyler Greene Fanclub). PUT TYLER ON THE GREENE.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 30, 2011 1:22 PM EST up reply actions
Eh, it's also how I feel about the situation
Apparently I’m just supposed to agree with you, even though I vehemently disagree with you. And if I don’t I get called irrational.
Pujols or not Pujols. That is the question.
You don't have to agree
But don’t resort to arguments like “we shouldn’t go out of our way to get boog” or “the ship has sailed”. Those are worthless.
Secretary of WAR and defense (Tyler Greene Fanclub). PUT TYLER ON THE GREENE.
I don't think Ryan is at all redundant with Jackson.
Jackson hasn’t played an inning in the majors and still has some developing to do—which is why no one is suggesting he will start at SS in St. Louis. If anything Ryan would have been the perfect bridge to Jackson. Yes, Ryan is 30. He’s a truly elite defensive shortstop. He cost $1.75MM last season and is arbitration eligible through 2013. He would have been a far superior option to any of the free agent shortstops available over the next two years both due to his defense and price.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
He is also. . .
A) injury prone
and
B) prone to long bouts of offensive ineptitude
and
C) whether deserved or not, and whether he’s grown up or not, has a reputation for being a problem in a major league clubhouse and a college clubhouse.
I realize I’m in the minority here, but guys with those attributes are relatively fungible.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Nov 30, 2011 11:45 AM EST up reply actions
...
a) who cares? so is Furcal and Greene. The only thing that matters is expected playing time, and don’t think Ryan is particularity deficient in that area.
b) who cares? all players have long bouts of offensive ineptitude at some point. The only thing that matters is total offense and defensive value.
c) bullshit. his clubhouse problems have only ever been where TLR’s been. I’ve heard no bad things about him in Seattle.
Secretary of WAR and defense (Tyler Greene Fanclub). PUT TYLER ON THE GREENE.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 30, 2011 11:48 AM EST up reply actions
He got kicked off his college team
in addition to getting run out of St. Louis.
This is NOT just a TLR problem. Maybe he’s grown up. I hope he has.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Nov 30, 2011 11:56 AM EST up reply actions
he has, FFS.
he’s a leader in that clubhouse. not a respected veteran. leader.
would've.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Nov 30, 2011 11:58 AM EST up reply actions
Leader in the Mariners' clubhouse = Captain of the Titanic ?
Beer and Baseball. Baseball and Beer. It's not hard to reevaluate your priorities when you only have two.
by PugetSoundCardsAddict on Nov 30, 2011 12:23 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah. . .
leader in the clubhouse of a team that lost 95 games isn’t going to make Boog any more money in arbitration.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Nov 30, 2011 12:26 PM EST up reply actions
if you're going to make a statement like "I hope he's grown up"
don’t bring in his monetary value to muddy the waters.
we paid Ryan Theriot more than Brendan Ryan this season.
would've.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
"run out of st. louis"
by tlr.
Secretary of WAR and defense (Tyler Greene Fanclub). PUT TYLER ON THE GREENE.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 30, 2011 11:59 AM EST up reply actions
to be fair, we don't know that it was Tony. he had dinner with him after the trade.
I think it was a combination of the coaching staff being incredibly inept, and unnamed veterans objecting to his attitude. particularly when losing.
would've.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Nov 30, 2011 12:00 PM EST up reply actions
Like Ryan Franklin.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
tweeter of Pu' pants.
would've.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Nov 30, 2011 12:01 PM EST up reply actions
If shortstops like Brendan Ryan are so fungible,
we ought to have no problem finding another shortstop that will post 1.0-to-3.0-WAR in each of 2012 and 2013 for $5-to-6MM in salary combined over those two years.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Sigh. . .
He ranked 15th among SS in WAR in 2011, behind such lesser lights as Emilio Bonifacio, Clint Barmes, Asdrubal Cabrera, et al
AND
He ranked 23rd in WAR among SS in 2010, behind Reid Brignac, Orlando Cabrara, Ramon Santiago, Jed Lowrie, Jerry Hairston, Jamey Carroll, et al.
He’s 30, so chances are he ain’t getting any A) healthier, or B) better.
Like him because of his moustache, or his devil-may-care attite or whatever, but he is not a SS that you go out of your way to get.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Nov 30, 2011 12:01 PM EST up reply actions
Amen.
think of this thread like I do, as a gift of time. By introducing a subject that I’m heartily sick of hearing or thinking about, VEB has given me a full 24 hours of respite. My time and attention can be spent elsewhere.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Nov 30, 2011 12:05 PM EST up reply actions
Ryan's been the 17th most valuable shorstops in baseball over the past 3 years
With 7 WAR in 1409 PA, or 3.0 WAR per 600 PA (!!!). You let me know where we can find another 3 WAR shortstop who will cost less than 6 million for two years.
Secretary of WAR and defense (Tyler Greene Fanclub). PUT TYLER ON THE GREENE.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 30, 2011 12:07 PM EST up reply actions
He has never gotten 600 PA
That is important.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Nov 30, 2011 12:50 PM EST up reply actions
neither has Greene
in fact Greene’s only gotten 130 PA per season! I guess that means we should project him to do that next year. It’s not like playing time is effected by things other than the player’s health and talent.
Secretary of WAR and defense (Tyler Greene Fanclub). PUT TYLER ON THE GREENE.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 30, 2011 12:52 PM EST up reply actions
Barking up the wrong tree with me
I think Tyler Greene will stink on ice if/when given the opportunity. I don’t want either him or Brendan Ryan as the starting SS on my contending team.
If I’m the Mariners and contending isn’t really a possibility, then sure, having Boog around to give fun interviews and sport a neat moustache is fine – maybe it will help distract the fans from the crappy product I’m putting on the field.
But neither player IMHO should be anything more than the 25th man on the roster for a contender.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Nov 30, 2011 12:56 PM EST up reply actions
Lol, your opinion completely contradicts facts
Have a nice day.
Secretary of WAR and defense (Tyler Greene Fanclub). PUT TYLER ON THE GREENE.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 30, 2011 12:57 PM EST up reply actions
?
Which opinion? That Tyler Greene, in an admittedly small sample size, with his 218/307/313 major league line and meh major league defense, will stink on ice when/if given the opportunity?
OR
That I don’t want Brendan Ryan, who has never been the starting SS on a contending team, to be the starting SS on my contending team?
by SouthsideCardsFan on Nov 30, 2011 1:04 PM EST up reply actions
Not sure at all why this part is relevant.
That I don’t want Brendan Ryan, who has never been the starting SS on a contending team, to be the starting SS on my contending team?
Wait. First of all, that’s just wrong. As frtiz pointed out, he was our starting SS in ‘09. Second of all, how the fuck does that matter? You’re blaming him for the team’s performance now?
will do ANYTHING for a rec
by stlcardsfan4 on Nov 30, 2011 1:15 PM EST up reply actions
That Brendan Ryan shouldn't be more than a 25th man
That’s laughable.
Secretary of WAR and defense (Tyler Greene Fanclub). PUT TYLER ON THE GREENE.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 30, 2011 1:23 PM EST up reply actions
It is what it is.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Brendan Ryan was our everyday starting shortstop when we won the division.
It is what it is.
"He probably misses his old glasses."
by Alxfritz on Nov 30, 2011 12:59 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
If you call starting 95 games. . .
an everyday starting SS, sure.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Nov 30, 2011 1:06 PM EST up reply actions
After his last injury in August, he started 41 of the final 51 games of the season, and appeared in 7 others.
That’s pretty much an everyday player.
"He probably misses his old glasses."
I don't have time to run the #s myself
but this looks like a very fundamental misuse of a counting stat. You should really convert WAR to a rate stat and make these types of rankings. Alternately, you convert to a rate stat and then normalize based on expected PA for each player taking into consideration age and injury risk.
Your list looks like it suffers from a very basic flaw though.
[My comment is not weighing in on the BRyan debate — just trying to adjust what appear to be misued numbers.]
Beware: Velociraptors may be present.
Except that. . .
being able to stay on the field is (sort of) a skill.
If you are sitting on the bench or the DL, then you can’t provide value. Ryan has had trouble staying on the field for a variety of reasons: injuries, attitude, can’t hit his way out of a paper sack, etc.
To put it another way, if you are paying Boog (or Furcal, for that matter) for WAR/PA, and expecting 600 PA, you are betting on something that has never happened in his career.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Nov 30, 2011 12:23 PM EST up reply actions
So you are blaming the player
when the manager sits him on the bench even though he isn’t hurt. Your premise is that every other shortstop would get along fine with LaRussa except for BRyan.
You are blaming BRyan for externalities outside of his control. Injuries I understand, the random benchings, I do not think are attributable.
It seems to me you’re either making some questionable assumptions or mis-using statistics to prove a point.
Beware: Velociraptors may be present.
Interesting names to cherrypick, I guess.
Emilio Bonifacio isn’t an everyday shortstop and played 67 games at the position in 2011, 9 games in 2010, and 20 in 2009. He also had a .372 BABIP in 2011.
Asdrubal Cabrera is a poor defensive shortstop who derives all of his value with his bat. He is a nice player who is still under club control. In fact, he’s quite comparable to Ryan and a shortstop that would be nice to have. Cabrera’s 2009-2011 fWAR was 7.5; Ryan’s was 6.9. It’d be nice to have either of them at their respective low salary levels.
Barmes just signed a two-year $10MM contract with Pittsburgh. This makes my point. Right now, we are looking for a bridge to Ryan Jackson. That bridge will almost assuredly cost more than Barmes and will assuredly cost more than Ryan. You may not “go out of your way to get” Brendan Ryan but, if you have a him and a groundball-pitch-to-contact staff, why wouldn’t you keep him?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
"why wouldn't you keep him?"
That’s the whole problem—we didn’t keep him, and maybe we should have. To get Brendan Ryan back we would have to give up something in return. Does anybody realistically think that we would be happy with the cost, in the real world, of trading for Brendan Ryan? I suspect we would give up a little more than we would want. Maybe I’m too pessimistic, though. I pretty much always feel like we give up more than we want to when we make trades (and I know of a few instances where I was definitely incorrect, so I at least try to have some healthy self-skepticism).
We should not trade to re-acquire him.
We traded him when he was at his lowest value. Now, his value has gone up. We’d have to give up more than we received in the initial Ryan trade. I’m just saying that dismissing him as fungible is a misleading statement. There are not many proven 1.4-to-3.0-WAR shortstops who are under club control for two years. Especially ones with elite defense.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Why shouldn't we trade to re-acquire him?
We know we’re going to pay more than the Mariners paid to get him, both because his value is higher now and the Mariners got a steal at the time.
But if we can trade for Boog with players who are less valuable to our team, why wouldn’t we do it?
Secretary of WAR and defense (Tyler Greene Fanclub). PUT TYLER ON THE GREENE.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 30, 2011 12:31 PM EST up reply actions
I disagree with this
He’s in Arb II now, and while his performance was better, he’s also more expensive. I’m not sure that he has more value now than he had before, actually. The problem is that we shipped him out for far less than he was worth the first time. So THAT actually is more valid then him being more valuable now.
I think his overall value has been diminished a bit due to age and compensation from Arb II than it was a year ago.
Pujols or not Pujols. That is the question.
He'll still only make 2 million or so in arbitration
Ryan is never, ever going to be valued as highly as he should as long as his offense is bad.
Secretary of WAR and defense (Tyler Greene Fanclub). PUT TYLER ON THE GREENE.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 30, 2011 12:34 PM EST up reply actions
What are the chances that Brendan Ryan is worth more than Tyler Greene in 2012?
Someone run the numbers on this.
I would bet that they are within the standard deviation error in UZR of each other.
Pujols or not Pujols. That is the question.
I don't have numbers on Greene
But Ryan’s been worth 3 WAR per 600 PA over the past 3 years (assuming his UZR/150 of 10.5 during that span is right – I think it’s pretty close given what we’ve seen). His 30, so you’d age a little off of that performance, but he’s still an above average player going forward.
I don’t think Greene’s average projection is nearly that good.
Secretary of WAR and defense (Tyler Greene Fanclub). PUT TYLER ON THE GREENE.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 30, 2011 12:33 PM EST up reply actions
But he's never had 600 PA.
That’s important, and I think you’re glossing over it.
I’m not saying Greene has, but Greene also doesn’t have a long track record of injuries over the course of his career either. Ryan does.
You would have to admit that Greene’s upside is much better than Ryan, would you not?
Pujols or not Pujols. That is the question.
This
Except for the part about Greene > Ryan.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Nov 30, 2011 1:09 PM EST up reply actions
With Greene's increased plate discipline
I think he’s a good bet to be better offensively than Ryan. Defensively, he has all the tools to be an above average SS — his issue is with being consistent and making the routine plays routine.
If you factor in Greene’s baserunning over 600 PA’s, he’s likely to be WAY more valuable if he can get on base at even a .320 clip.
Pujols or not Pujols. That is the question.
I understand your viewpoint. . .
I just think that Greene’s bat will never translate well to the major leagues. He’s like Brandon Wood, a high K hitter with some pop at SS, except Wood has/had more power and Greene is a better defensive SS.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Nov 30, 2011 5:37 PM EST up reply actions
Brandon Wood was never a good defensive SS
Which is why he got moved to third base.
Pujols or not Pujols. That is the question.
He's injury prone?
That seems to be an overused phrase when describing players. Erik Bedard? Injury prone. Brendan Ryan? Er what… He’s had 400+ PAs for three years in a row now.
will do ANYTHING for a rec
by stlcardsfan4 on Nov 30, 2011 1:13 PM EST up reply actions
Part time players average around 400 PA's
Everyday players average around 600 PA’s. So he’s missing a LOT of time with injuries or he’s sitting down a lot due to other reasons.
Either way, assuming 600 PA’s for him when HE’S NEVER HAD THAT MANY in any season at the major league level is silly. There’s a reason why he’s never had that many.
Pujols or not Pujols. That is the question.
Maybe so, but I wouldn't call him injury prone.
I really think 400+ PAs for a part-time player is not as common as you think. In 2011, every player with more than 400 plate appearances (7 players only) was a starter for at leasts two months on Cards(Pujols, Holliday, Berkman, Molina, Schumaker, Jay, Theriot – Rasmus would also qualify if he were here all year)
And anyway what I said was a little misleading since he basically had 500 PAs the past two years. Most players would reach 500 PAs.
will do ANYTHING for a rec
by stlcardsfan4 on Nov 30, 2011 1:23 PM EST up reply actions
I should also add that I'm very intrigued by Cleto, which makes the trade somewhat acceptable.
I hope he is able to stick as a starter, otherwise we gave up three cost-controlled seasons of an elite defensive shortstop for a reliever with control problems.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
And next year is an even numbered year. We don't want even numbered year Boog.
"He probably misses his old glasses."
by Alxfritz on Nov 30, 2011 12:28 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Brendan Ryan has really grown up a lot the last year or so.
I would not have expected this type of depth from him in an interview with his gas house gang personality that he had here in St. Louis. Perhaps the trade really did him some good in terms of coming to grips with being a professional and how lucky he is to be an everyday player in the big leagues.
Pujols or not Pujols. That is the question.
I am going to draw a picture of Brendan Ryan playing SS for the Quad Cities Swing in Clinton, Iowa wearing a gas mask.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
FooManchu on the outside of the gas mask please...
"I don't know, but it works. Doin it for Torty works... He brings us luck and we're gonna roll with it." Allen Craig
my 1944
Stan musial jersey is in. Holy shit is thing cool.
Piss off Tony, get shipped to Canada.
by beer me on Nov 30, 2011 11:40 AM EST via mobile reply actions
Mine still hasn't shipped.
It hasn’t cancelled either, which, from what I hear, is a good thing.
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Second base….I’ve played second base, how hard can it be? -TLR
Also, Dave Concepcion.
I still havent been charged yet.
I think they got way overwhelmed. I’m still waiting for my Gibson one.
Piss off Tony, get shipped to Canada.
by beer me on Nov 30, 2011 12:01 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I would guess that a lot of these aren't even manufactured yet
Which is why you haven’t been billed. They can’t legally bill you for goods that are not currently available for sale.
Pujols or not Pujols. That is the question.
according to the email my wife got
there are no plans to continue the Hornsby Browns jersey. As soon as she gives me permission I’m going to make life a living hell for someone for about 5 minutes. . . or however long they will listen to me piss and moan.
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
So you're going to make life a living hell for someone
over a jersey worn by a guy who made life a living hell for just about everyone that he ever met?
You should request a Ty Cobb jersey while you’re at it, lol.
Pujols or not Pujols. That is the question.
isn't it ironic, dont you think?
a little too ironic
the spirit of “The Raja” lives on!
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
The jerseys my wife ordered me arrived this morning
as did her new Dizzy Dean jersey. Raja and my new Packers snow cap are hanging out in Earth City, it appears.
"He probably misses his old glasses."
I have one of the jerseys I ordered in my hands
The other will be here today.
Piss off Tony, get shipped to Canada.
by beer me on Nov 30, 2011 1:22 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
did you see the link I posted for the whiskey rocks?
perhaps you could buy some AND CHOKE ON THEM
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
I didn't even order one...
and it arrived today!
The negative waves. Always with the negative waves...
Elation. Sadness. Mayhem. Champagne. Sleepless fury. Never been a night like it. - Joe Posnanski
completely possible
as awful as their website is
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
SOB
You teach me baseball and I'll teach you relativity. No, we must not. You will learn about relativity faster than I learn baseball. --Albert Einstein
2011 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!
And then Pujols signs for 9/200
Secretary of WAR and defense (Tyler Greene Fanclub). PUT TYLER ON THE GREENE.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 30, 2011 11:55 AM EST up reply actions
Baseball Prospectus Holiday Gift List
I would like a hand-made replica of Busch Stadium, autographed by Cardinals greats including Willie McGee (signed on his birthday!), Tim McCarver (hard to get!), Stan Musial (HOF), Tom Pagnozzi (Tom Pagnozzi) and Fredbird. This is $150,000, but thank you in advance, I appreciate your generosity.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I want Busch II, personally.
it has that pretty symmetry.
would've.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Nov 30, 2011 11:59 AM EST up reply actions
oh i take it back, that is Busch II
would've.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Nov 30, 2011 12:01 PM EST up reply actions
Yes, carved out of "OOAK."
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
shipping is a steal at only $1.
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Second base….I’ve played second base, how hard can it be? -TLR
Also, Dave Concepcion.
so if you could inscribe a VEB thread on a baseball
which would it be
would've.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Nov 30, 2011 12:02 PM EST up reply actions
the magic thread
RE-SIGN EVERYONE
by Notorious PSC on Nov 30, 2011 12:08 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
free danup.
i fail at teh subjunctive
by stlcardinalsfang on Nov 30, 2011 12:14 PM EST reply actions
Would you want:
.226/.348/.456/.804 w/ a .269 BABIP making ~$10M?
or
.299/.366/.541/.906 w/ a .277 BABIP for ~25M?
"He probably misses his old glasses."
Is the first one Rollins?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Yes.
If, for instance, both of those players get 500 PA, but one of them pitches every fifth day with a FIP of, say 2.50, that guy is more valuable. Maybe there are less extreme examples that also illustrate the point. . .
by SouthsideCardsFan on Nov 30, 2011 12:40 PM EST up reply actions
I was more along the lines of:
If Player A is a SS or CF and Player B is a 1B and assuming both are age 27 and are league average defensively, I’d rather have Player A because Player A is a hell of a lot harder to find.
Pujols or not Pujols. That is the question.
I see what you did here
yes, I still want #2
my favorite words are goodbye and my favorite color is red
I thought for sure that player A was Carlos Pena
And it looks really close, but the numbers don’t quite match what I am finding
I'd rather have Player Composite A
if I were a few years away from competing.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Is 100 OPS points worth an extra ten or more million?
(obviously there is a lot more going on here and this is an exercise in futility, just something I wanted to look up this morning and got me thinking.)
"He probably misses his old glasses."
no. it's not.
the additional production player B gives you is not worth $15 million more. however, i’d still much rather have B at first base than a revolving door.
it is what it is, not what we thought it'd be
I dunno
A 100 point difference is not the same everywhere. If you have a player who is 50 points below average in OPS and another player who is 50 points above average, that seems to be a very different comparison than, say, the highest OPS in baseball compared to a player who is 100 points below him. I don’t know which is a greater difference in terms of value.
Anyway, I expect a sizable improvement from Player B, with better defense than Composite Player A. It is a pretty cool thought exercise though.
by mattybobo on Nov 30, 2011 12:50 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
yeah, we still need to figure out how value works, because I can't believe that it's nonlinear (even if teams think it is)
Secretary of WAR and defense (Tyler Greene Fanclub). PUT TYLER ON THE GREENE.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 30, 2011 12:51 PM EST up reply actions
I don't see why the Cubs would want to pay 2011 Pujols 25 million dollars, since that's what you're comparing
So there’s that.
Cubs signed David DeJesus
Reportedly for 2 years, $10MM
This is like the anti-Soriano contract. I think it’s a decent signing.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Did you look at DeJesus' line for 2011?
Pretty awful
Looking specifically at LD% and BABIP, however, he seems like a good candidate to bounce back to form, although I’m not too keen on assuming a guy was unlucky FOR A WHOLE SEASON.
I might have given him one year, but certainly not two.
Pujols or not Pujols. That is the question.
The Cubs are going to gut the roster, they have plenty of money, and not much on the farm...
DD will just be a warm body for two years.
Sign Roy O
Yeah.
With an unlucky 2011, he was still worth 2.2 Fangraphs WAR because of his defense. I think he is a safe bet to be a surplus value.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
His offense wasn't even all that terrible given the declining run environment throughout baseball
He has a 95 wRC+ with darn good defense.
I think DeJesus will his closer to .300 than .250 each of the next two seasons,
especially playing his home games in Wrigley.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
the b in bgh stands for Baron?!!!?!?
MIND BLOWN
I smacked Rickey right in the face when he told me this idea.
When you think about the minor leagues, Clinton, Iowa is the type of town that comes to mind. When you drive in, you’re overwhelmed with the smell of dog food — I think that’s what it is — so you really want to wear a mask.
my grandma lives up there, it’s so nasty. not sure why she likes it so much but she’s lived there a very long time… I’ll always remember the holidays up there, and the smell, which would subside once we were inside the house enjoying good food…. then you’d be hit with that stench when you went back outside. such a weird city.
11!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 30, 2011 10:30 PM EST reply actions
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