FanPost

2011 Cardinals, An Odds Thing Happened On The Way To The Championship

Here is a look at how the Cardinals 2011 actual results stacked up compared to what the Vegas odds makers thought of them throughout the season.  If you take the win Vegas win expectancy from all 162 of the Cardinals games and add them up, you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.5425 which translates to an expected win total of 87.88 games.  If you do the same for my simulation of each Cardinals game you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.5721 or 92.67 wins.  The Cardinals actually went 90-72 on the season and of course went on to have a pretty successful post-season.  Below is a list of all 162 games with the Vegas odds for every game, the list is sorted by games in which the Cardinals were the largest favorite to win.

Rank Date Away SP Home SP Away Home Fave Fave Win Perc STL Win Perc Sim STL Win Perc Winning Team Away Runs Home Runs Total Runs
1 08-27-2011 Jeff Karstens Chris Carpenter PIT STL STL 68.75 68.75 72.301 PIT 7 0 7
2 09-21-2011 Chris Schwinden Jaime Garcia NYN STL STL 67.532 67.532 69.66 STL 5 6 11
3 09-24-2011 Rodrigo Lopez Kyle Lohse CHN STL STL 66.499 66.499 67.56 STL 1 2 3
4 09-23-2011 Ryan Dempster Chris Carpenter CHN STL STL 65.928 65.928 69.33 CHN 5 1 6
5 09-28-2011 Chris Carpenter Brett Myers STL HOU STL 65.87 65.87 65.809 STL 8 0 8
6 07-27-2011 Bud Norris Chris Carpenter HOU STL STL 65.812 65.812 68.148 HOU 4 2 6
7 06-19-2011 Danny Duffy Jaime Garcia KC STL STL 65.517 65.517 74.716 STL 4 5 9
8 07-25-2011 J.A. Happ Kyle McClellan HOU STL STL 64.851 64.851 65.309 STL 5 10 15
9 03-31-2011 Tim Stauffer Chris Carpenter SD STL STL 64.602 64.602 60.79 SD 5 3 8
10 07-28-2011 Wandy Rodriguez Jaime Garcia HOU STL STL 64.349 64.349 70.099 HOU 5 3 8
11 08-22-2011 Nathan Eovaldi Chris Carpenter LAN STL STL 64.349 64.349 73.017 LAN 2 1 3
12 09-22-2011 Chris Capuano Jake Westbrook NYN STL STL 64.158 64.158 59.88 NYN 8 6 14
13 09-25-2011 Randy Wells Edwin Jackson CHN STL STL 63.834 63.834 70.518 STL 2 3 5
14 05-04-11 Javier Vazquez Chris Carpenter FLA STL STL 63.57 63.57 68.648 FLA 8 7 15
15 06-04-11 Randy Wells Kyle Lohse CHN STL STL 63.57 63.57 66.745 STL 4 5 9
16 09-20-2011 Mike Pelfrey Edwin Jackson NYN STL STL 63.57 63.57 64.38 STL 6 11 17
17 04-06-11 Kevin Correia Chris Carpenter PIT STL STL 63.504 63.504 64.015 PIT 3 1 4
18 08-13-2011 Jason Hammel Jaime Garcia COL STL STL 63.168 63.168 66.987 COL 6 1 7
19 07-30-2011 Rodrigo Lopez Kyle Lohse CHN STL STL 62.756 62.756 65.027 STL 5 13 18
20 06-03-11 Ryan Dempster Jaime Garcia CHN STL STL 62.617 62.617 65.465 STL 1 6 7
21 05-18-2011 Bud Norris Kyle Lohse HOU STL STL 62.617 62.617 64.56 STL 1 5 6
22 07-10-11 Zach Duke Jaime Garcia ARI STL STL 62.406 62.406 66.504 STL 2 4 6
23 05-19-2011 J.A. Happ Kyle McClellan HOU STL STL 62.193 62.193 62.82 STL 2 4 6
24 07-26-2011 Brett Myers Jake Westbrook HOU STL STL 62.049 62.049 65.007 STL 1 3 4
25 09-27-2011 Jake Westbrook Henry Sosa STL HOU STL 62.049 62.049 64.5 STL 13 6 19
26 05-02-11 Chris Volstad Kyle LOhse FLA STL STL 61.686 61.686 68.043 FLA 6 5 11
27 05-22-2011 Jaime Garcia Sean O'Sullivan STL KC STL 61.686 61.686 68.15 STL 9 8 17
28 05-31-2011 Ryan Vogelsong Chris Carpenter SF STL STL 61.464 61.464 60.316 STL 3 4 7
29 09-13-2011 Chris Carpenter Jeff Karstens STL PIT STL 61.464 61.464 62.605 STL 6 4 10
30 04-20-2011 Jordan Zimmerman Jaime Garcia WAS STL STL 61.39 61.39 66.475 STL 3 5 8
31 04-21-2011 Tom Gorzelanny Kyle LOhse WAS STL STL 61.165 61.165 63.603 STL 0 5 5
32 06-17-2011 Felipe Paulino Chris Carpenter KC STL STL 61.089 61.089 65.861 KC 5 4 9
33 06-18-2011 Vin Mazzaro Jake Westbrook KC STL STL 60.938 60.938 69.209 STL 4 5 9
34 09-04-11 Bronson Arroyo Edwin Jackson CIN STL STL 60.861 60.861 64.501 CIN 3 2 5
35 08-25-2011 Charlie Morton Edwin Jackson PIT STL STL 60.861 60.861 66.449 STL 4 8 12
36 08-26-2011 James McDonald Jake Westbrook PIT STL STL 60.707 60.707 67.049 STL 4 5 9
37 06-05-11 Carlos Zambrano Chris Carpenter CHN STL STL 60.552 60.552 62.082 STL 2 3 5
38 09-26-2011 Jaime Garcia Wandy Rodriguez STL HOU STL 59.92 59.92 65.129 HOU 4 5 9
39 08-14-2011 Esmil Rogers Edwin Jackson COL STL STL 59.759 59.759 59.852 STL 2 6 8
40 09-10-11 Derek Lowe Jaime Garcia ATL STL STL 59.432 59.432 66.521 STL 3 4 7
41 04-23-2011 Travis Wood Chris Carpenter CIN STL STL 59.432 59.432 53.936 CIN 5 3 8
42 08-28-2011 Jeff Karstens Kyle Lohse PIT STL STL 59.432 59.432 66.775 STL 4 7 11
43 09-03-11 Homer Bailey Jaime Garcia CIN STL STL 59.35 59.35 66.799 STL 4 6 10
44 04-04-11 Charlie Morton Kyle Lohse PIT STL STL 59.016 59.016 60.583 PIT 4 3 7
45 08-12-11 Aaron Cook Kyle Lohse COL STL STL 58.932 58.932 58.887 STL 1 6 7
46 04-03-11 Dustin Moseley Jaime Garcia SD STL STL 58.848 58.848 60.075 STL 0 2 2
47 05-12-11 Jaime Garcia Casey Coleman STL CHN STL 58.848 58.848 64.523 STL 9 1 10
48 07-05-11 Edinson Volquez Jaime Garcia CIN STL STL 58.763 58.763 60.467 STL 1 8 9
49 05-06-11 Randy Wolf Jaime Garcia MIL STL STL 58.763 58.763 70.691 STL 6 0 6
50 06-08-11 Jaime Garcia Bud Norris STL HOU STL 58.592 58.592 59.814 HOU 1 4 5
51 06-25-2011 Carlos Villanueva Jaime Garcia TOR STL STL 58.592 58.592 68.3 TOR 6 3 9
52 08-24-2011 Hiroki Kuroda Jaime Garcia LAN STL STL 58.592 58.592 67.224 LAN 9 4 13
53 04-20-2011 John Lannan Jake Westbrook WAS STL STL 58.506 58.506 54.806 WAS 8 6 14
54 05-30-2011 Madison Bumgarner Kyle McClellan SF STL STL 58.506 58.506 50.153 SF 7 3 10
55 09-06-11 Yovanni Gallardo Kyle Lohse MIL STL STL 58.071 58.071 57.932 STL 2 4 6
56 07-31-2011 Ryan Dempster Jake Westbrook CHN STL STL 58.071 58.071 57.787 CHN 6 3 9
57 08-16-2011 Chris Carpenter Jeff Karstens STL PIT STL 57.895 57.895 65.703 PIT 4 5 9
58 08-19-2011 Jaime Garcia Randy Wells STL CHN STL 57.895 57.895 65.068 CHN 4 5 9
59 09-14-2011 Edwin Jackson Charlie Morton STL PIT STL 57.895 57.895 55.771 STL 3 2 5
60 06-14-2011 Jaime Garcia Yunesky Maya STL WAS STL 57.717 57.717 65.542 WAS 6 8 14
61 05-17-2011 Roy Oswalt Jaime Garcia PHI STL STL 57.627 57.627 62.203 STL 1 2 3
62 09-02-11 Johnny Cueto Chris Carpenter CIN STL STL 57.537 57.537 64.681 CIN 11 8 19
63 07-07-11 Joe Saunders Kyle McClellan ARI STL STL 57.356 57.356 65.692 ARI 4 1 5
64 04-05-11 James McDonald Kyle McClellan PIT STL STL 57.265 57.265 57.019 STL 2 3 5
65 07-09-11 Daniel Hudson Chris Carpenter ARI STL STL 57.173 57.173 60.232 STL 6 7 13
66 04-12-11 Chris Carpenter Armando Galarraga STL ARI STL 57.173 57.173 60.991 ARI 8 13 21
67 04-28-2011 Kyle McClellan Neslon Figueroa STL HOU STL 56.803 56.803 58.881 STL 11 7 18
68 06-29-2011 Chris Carpenter Chris Jakubauskas STL BAL STL 56.803 56.803 49.14 STL 5 1 6
69 07-23-2011 Jaime Garcia Kevin Correia STL PIT STL 56.616 56.616 63.663 STL 9 1 10
70 04-22-2011 Edinson Volquez Kyle McClellan CIN STL STL 56.236 56.236 52.463 STL 2 4 6
71 04-27-2011 Kyle Lohse J.A. Happ STL HOU STL 56.236 56.236 64.05 STL 6 5 11
72 05-23-2011 Kyle Lohse Dustin Moseley STL SD STL 56.236 56.236 56.39 STL 3 1 4
73 05-03-11 Anibal Sanchez Kyle McClellan FLA STL STL 56.14 56.14 56.1 STL 5 7 12
74 05-08-11 Chris Narveson Kyle McClellan MIL STL STL 56.14 56.14 61.277 STL 1 3 4
75 08-15-2011 Jake Westbrook James McDonald STL PIT STL 56.044 56.044 59.707 PIT 2 6 8
76 04-26-2011 Jaime Garcia Bud Norris STL HOU STL 55.85 55.85 61.14 HOU 5 6 11
77 06-30-2011 Jaime Garcia Brian Matusz STL BAL STL 55.85 55.85 53.433 STL 9 6 15
78 07-22-2011 Chris Carpenter Paul Maholm STL PIT STL 55.85 55.85 57.543 STL 6 4 10
79 08-21-2011 Jake Westbrook Rodrigo Lopez STL CHN STL 55.85 55.85 57.973 STL 6 2 8
80 04-02-11 Clayton Richard Jake Westbrook SD STL STL 55.556 55.556 50.369 SD 11 3 14
81 08-06-11 Chris Carpenter Ricky Nolasco STL FLA STL 55.457 55.457 54.403 STL 2 1 3
82 05-07-11 Yovanni Gallardo Kyle Lohse MIL STL STL 55.457 55.457 63.783 MIL 4 0 4
83 08-11-11 Yovanni Gallardo Jake Westbrook MIL STL STL 55.457 55.457 56.971 STL 2 5 7
84 07-29-2011 Matt Garza Edwin Jackson CHN STL STL 55.457 55.457 63.967 STL 2 9 11
85 06-07-11 Jake Westbrook Brett Myers STL HOU STL 55.257 55.257 59.083 STL 7 4 11
86 09-09-11 Randall Delgado Edwin Jackson ATL STL STL 55.056 55.056 67.966 STL 3 4 7
87 05-21-2011 Jake Westbrook Nathan Adcock STL KC STL 54.955 54.955 62.213 STL 3 0 3
88 07-06-11 Bronson Arroyo Jake Westbrook CIN STL STL 54.853 54.853 59.929 CIN 9 8 17
89 08-10-11 Randy Wolf Jake Westbrook MIL STL STL 54.853 54.853 62.488 MIL 5 1 6
90 09-12-11 Kyle Lohse Brad Lincoln STL PIT STL 54.853 54.853 58.742 PIT 5 6 11
91 04-17-2011 Chris Carpenter Chad Billingsley STL LAN STL 54.649 54.649 50.087 LAN 1 2 3
92 05-20-2011 Chris Carpenter Jeff Francis STL KC STL 54.649 54.649 57.18 KC 0 3 3
93 05-24-2011 Kyle McClellan Aaron Harang STL SD STL 54.649 54.649 51.938 STL 3 2 5
94 08-17-2011 Kyle Lohse Paul Maholm STL PIT STL 54.649 54.649 55.054 STL 7 2 9
95 06-02-11 Jonathan Sanchez Lance Lynn SF STL STL 54.545 54.545 50.932 SF 12 7 19
96 08-07-11 Jaime Garcia Javier Vazquez STL FLA STL 54.545 54.545 60.715 STL 8 4 12
97 05-28-2011 Jaime Garcia Juan Nicasio STL COL STL 54.442 54.442 58.058 COL 4 15 19
98 09-07-11 Zach Greinke Chris Carpenter MIL STL STL 54.233 54.233 61.079 STL 0 2 2
99 07-16-2011 Chris Carpenter Bronson Arroyo STL CIN STL 54.233 54.233 58.354 STL 4 1 5
100 07-08-11 Ian Kennedy Kyle Lohse ARI STL STL 54.023 54.023 63.035 ARI 7 6 13
101 07-04-11 Johnny Cueto Chris Carpenter CIN STL STL 53.811 53.811 53.796 STL 0 1 1
102 05-25-2011 Chris Carpenter Mat Latos STL SD STL 53.596 53.596 53.385 SD 1 3 4
103 07-24-2011 Kyle Lohse Charlie Morton STL PIT STL 53.38 53.38 52.889 PIT 3 4 7
104 08-09-11 Shaun Marcum Edwin Jackson MIL STL STL 53.162 53.162 63.942 MIL 5 3 8
105 09-05-11 Randy Wolf Jake Westbrook MIL STL STL 52.719 52.719 62.047 MIL 4 1 5
106 04-11-11 Kyle McClellan Barry Enright STL ARI STL 52.381 52.381 53.214 STL 8 2 10
107 08-23-2011 Clayton Kershaw Kyle Lohse LAN STL STL 52.153 52.153 41.133 LAN 13 2 15
108 06-15-2011 Kyle McClellan Livan Hernandez STL WAS STL 51.807 51.807 46.584 WAS 0 10 10
109 05-10-11 Chris Carpenter Carlos Zambrano STL CHN STL 51.691 51.691 50.484 STL 6 4 10
110 04-24-2011 Sam LeCure Jake Westbrook CIN STL STL 51.456 51.456 53.038 STL 0 3 3
111 05-15-2011 Chris Carpenter Travis Wood STL CIN STL 51.456 51.456 41.174 CIN 7 9 16
112 06-23-2011 Roy Oswalt Chris Carpenter PHI STL STL 51.338 51.338 50.064 STL 2 12 14
113 06-09-11 Lance Lynn J.A. Happ STL HOU STL 51.1 51.1 52.302 STL 9 2 11
114 08-03-11 Edwin Jackson Randy Wolf STL MIL STL 50.86 50.86 57.658 MIL 5 10 15
115 06-24-2011 Brandon Morrow Jake Westbrook TOR STL STL 50.739 50.739 49.526 TOR 5 4 9
116 08-20-2011 Edwin Jackson Matt Garza STL CHN CHN 50.249 49.751 52.169 CHN 0 3 3
117 07-17-2011 Jaime Garcia Homer Bailey STL CIN CIN 50.495 49.505 58.649 CIN 1 3 4
118 06-16-2011 Kyle Lohse John Lannan STL WAS WAS 50.617 49.383 50.431 WAS 4 7 11
119 06-10-11 Kyle Lohse Chris Narveson STL MIL MIL 50.739 49.261 53.051 MIL 0 8 8
120 07-19-2011 Kyle Lohse Dillon Gee STL NYN NYN 50.86 49.14 54.689 NYN 2 4 6
121 07-20-2011 Kyle McClellan R.A. Dickey STL NYN NYN 51.1 48.9 51.08 NYN 5 6 11
122 05-01-11 Jaime Garcia Derek Lowe STL ATL ATL 51.22 48.78 57.048 ATL 5 6 11
123 04-29-2011 Chris Carpenter Tim Hudson STL ATL ATL 51.338 48.662 51.624 STL 5 3 8
124 04-15-2011 Kyle LOhse Jon Garland STL LAN LAN 52.494 47.506 48.94 STL 11 2 13
125 06-01-11 Tim Lincecum Jake Westbrook SF STL SF 52.719 47.281 52.674 SF 7 5 12
126 04-13-2011 Jake Westbrook Ian Kennedy STL ARI ARI 52.719 47.281 47.611 STL 15 5 20
127 07-21-2011 Jake Westbrook John Niese STL NYN NYN 52.719 47.281 44.866 STL 6 2 8
128 04-14-2011 Jaime Garcia Hiroki Kuroda STL LAN LAN 52.83 47.17 54.651 STL 9 5 14
129 08-04-11 Kyle Lohse Anibal Sanchez STL FLA FLA 52.941 47.059 47.093 STL 7 4 11
130 06-26-2011 Ricky Romero Kyle McClellan TOR STL TOR 52.941 47.059 50.666 TOR 5 0 5
131 09-11-11 Tim Hudson Jake Westbrook ATL STL ATL 53.38 46.62 58.894 STL 3 6 9
132 09-18-2011 Chris Carpenter Cole Hamels STL PHI PHI 53.38 46.62 46.11 STL 5 0 5
133 05-13-2011 Kyle Lohse Bronson Arroyo STL CIN CIN 53.811 46.189 57.901 CIN 5 6 11
134 08-01-11 Chris Carpenter Zach Greinke STL MIL MIL 54.338 45.662 50.679 MIL 2 6 8
135 05-11-11 Jake Westbrook Matt Garza STL CHN CHN 54.442 45.558 45.571 CHN 4 11 15
136 06-11-11 Chris Carpenter Zach Greinke STL MIL MIL 54.545 45.455 48.91 MIL 3 5 8
137 08-05-11 Jake Westbrook Anibal Sanchez STL FLA FLA 54.649 45.351 46.544 STL 3 2 5
138 05-14-2011 Kyle McClellan Johnny Cueto STL CIN CIN 54.649 45.351 45.326 CIN 3 7 10
139 08-02-11 Jaime Garcia Shaun Marcum STL MIL MIL 54.853 45.147 58.131 STL 8 7 15
140 07-01-11 Jake Westbrook Wade Davis STL TB TB 55.457 44.543 46.829 STL 5 3 8
141 05-29-2011 Kyle Lohse Jhoulys Chacin STL COL COL 55.457 44.543 45.209 STL 4 3 7
142 07-02-11 Kyle McClellan Jeff Niemann STL TB TB 55.85 44.15 44.959 TB 1 5 6
143 05-16-2011 Cliff Lee Jake Westbrook PHI STL PHI 55.85 44.15 47.791 STL 1 3 4
144 08-31-2011 Jake Westbrook Randy Wolf STL MIL MIL 56.427 43.573 51.313 STL 8 3 11
145 06-28-2011 Kyle Lohse Zach Britton STL BAL BAL 56.616 43.384 39.615 STL 6 2 8
146 09-16-2011 Jaime Garcia Vance Worley STL PHI PHI 56.803 43.197 49.496 STL 4 2 6
147 05-05-11 Josh Johnson Jake Westbrook FLA STL FLA 57.082 42.918 49.917 STL 3 6 9
148 04-10-11 Kyle LOhse Barry Zito STL SF SF 57.173 42.827 44.116 STL 6 1 7
149 09-17-2011 Jake Westbrook Roy Oswalt STL PHI PHI 57.627 42.373 44.12 PHI 2 9 11
150 04-30-2011 Jake Westbrook Brandon Beachy STL ATL ATL 57.806 42.194 50.117 STL 3 2 5
151 07-03-11 Kyle Lohse Jeremy Hellickson STL TB TB 58.159 41.841 45.093 TB 3 8 11
152 06-22-2011 Cliff Lee Kyle Lohse PHI STL PHI 58.246 41.754 39.686 PHI 4 0 4
153 04-16-2011 Kyle McClellan Clayton Kershaw STL LAN LAN 58.42 41.58 38.453 STL 9 2 11
154 04-09-11 Jaime Garcia Matt Cain STL SF SF 59.267 40.733 43.395 SF 2 3 5
155 08-30-2011 Edwin Jackson Shaun Marcum STL MIL MIL 59.432 40.568 51.73 STL 2 1 3
156 06-12-11 Jake Westbrook Shaun Marcum STL MIL MIL 59.677 40.323 48.698 MIL 3 4 7
157 05-27-2011 Jake Westbrook Ubaldo Jimenez STL COL COL 59.759 40.241 41.474 STL 10 3 13
158 07-15-2011 Jake Westbrook Johnny Cueto STL CIN CIN 60.239 39.761 46.399 CIN 5 6 11
159 04-08-11 Jake Westbrook Jonathan Sanchez STL SF SF 61.089 38.911 39.136 SF 4 6 10
160 06-21-2011 Roy Halladay Kyle McClellan PHI STL PHI 61.464 38.536 37.722 PHI 10 2 12
161 09-01-11 Brandon Dickson Yovanni Gallardo STL MIL MIL 63.168 36.832 43.769 STL 8 4 12
162 09-19-2011 Kyle Lohse Roy Halladay STL PHI PHI 65.812 34.188 36.23 STL 4 3 7
X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Viva El Birdos

You must be a member of Viva El Birdos to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Viva El Birdos. You should read them.

Join Viva El Birdos

You must be a member of Viva El Birdos to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Viva El Birdos. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker