2011 Cardinals, An Odds Thing Happened On The Way To The Championship

by Xeifrank on Nov 12, 2011 1:46 PM EST

Here is a look at how the Cardinals 2011 actual results stacked up compared to what the Vegas odds makers thought of them throughout the season. If you take the win Vegas win expectancy from all 162 of the Cardinals games and add them up, you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.5425 which translates to an expected win total of 87.88 games. If you do the same for my simulation of each Cardinals game you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.5721 or 92.67 wins. The Cardinals actually went 90-72 on the season and of course went on to have a pretty successful post-season. Below is a list of all 162 games with the Vegas odds for every game, the list is sorted by games in which the Cardinals were the largest favorite to win.

Rank	Date	Away SP	Home SP	Away	Home	Fave	Fave Win Perc	STL Win Perc	Sim STL Win Perc	Winning Team	Away Runs	Home Runs	Total Runs
1	08-27-2011	Jeff Karstens	Chris Carpenter	PIT	STL	STL	68.75	68.75	72.301	PIT	7	0	7
2	09-21-2011	Chris Schwinden	Jaime Garcia	NYN	STL	STL	67.532	67.532	69.66	STL	5	6	11
3	09-24-2011	Rodrigo Lopez	Kyle Lohse	CHN	STL	STL	66.499	66.499	67.56	STL	1	2	3
4	09-23-2011	Ryan Dempster	Chris Carpenter	CHN	STL	STL	65.928	65.928	69.33	CHN	5	1	6
5	09-28-2011	Chris Carpenter	Brett Myers	STL	HOU	STL	65.87	65.87	65.809	STL	8	0	8
6	07-27-2011	Bud Norris	Chris Carpenter	HOU	STL	STL	65.812	65.812	68.148	HOU	4	2	6
7	06-19-2011	Danny Duffy	Jaime Garcia	KC	STL	STL	65.517	65.517	74.716	STL	4	5	9
8	07-25-2011	J.A. Happ	Kyle McClellan	HOU	STL	STL	64.851	64.851	65.309	STL	5	10	15
9	03-31-2011	Tim Stauffer	Chris Carpenter	SD	STL	STL	64.602	64.602	60.79	SD	5	3	8
10	07-28-2011	Wandy Rodriguez	Jaime Garcia	HOU	STL	STL	64.349	64.349	70.099	HOU	5	3	8
11	08-22-2011	Nathan Eovaldi	Chris Carpenter	LAN	STL	STL	64.349	64.349	73.017	LAN	2	1	3
12	09-22-2011	Chris Capuano	Jake Westbrook	NYN	STL	STL	64.158	64.158	59.88	NYN	8	6	14
13	09-25-2011	Randy Wells	Edwin Jackson	CHN	STL	STL	63.834	63.834	70.518	STL	2	3	5
14	05-04-11	Javier Vazquez	Chris Carpenter	FLA	STL	STL	63.57	63.57	68.648	FLA	8	7	15
15	06-04-11	Randy Wells	Kyle Lohse	CHN	STL	STL	63.57	63.57	66.745	STL	4	5	9
16	09-20-2011	Mike Pelfrey	Edwin Jackson	NYN	STL	STL	63.57	63.57	64.38	STL	6	11	17
17	04-06-11	Kevin Correia	Chris Carpenter	PIT	STL	STL	63.504	63.504	64.015	PIT	3	1	4
18	08-13-2011	Jason Hammel	Jaime Garcia	COL	STL	STL	63.168	63.168	66.987	COL	6	1	7
19	07-30-2011	Rodrigo Lopez	Kyle Lohse	CHN	STL	STL	62.756	62.756	65.027	STL	5	13	18
20	06-03-11	Ryan Dempster	Jaime Garcia	CHN	STL	STL	62.617	62.617	65.465	STL	1	6	7
21	05-18-2011	Bud Norris	Kyle Lohse	HOU	STL	STL	62.617	62.617	64.56	STL	1	5	6
22	07-10-11	Zach Duke	Jaime Garcia	ARI	STL	STL	62.406	62.406	66.504	STL	2	4	6
23	05-19-2011	J.A. Happ	Kyle McClellan	HOU	STL	STL	62.193	62.193	62.82	STL	2	4	6
24	07-26-2011	Brett Myers	Jake Westbrook	HOU	STL	STL	62.049	62.049	65.007	STL	1	3	4
25	09-27-2011	Jake Westbrook	Henry Sosa	STL	HOU	STL	62.049	62.049	64.5	STL	13	6	19
26	05-02-11	Chris Volstad	Kyle LOhse	FLA	STL	STL	61.686	61.686	68.043	FLA	6	5	11
27	05-22-2011	Jaime Garcia	Sean O'Sullivan	STL	KC	STL	61.686	61.686	68.15	STL	9	8	17
28	05-31-2011	Ryan Vogelsong	Chris Carpenter	SF	STL	STL	61.464	61.464	60.316	STL	3	4	7
29	09-13-2011	Chris Carpenter	Jeff Karstens	STL	PIT	STL	61.464	61.464	62.605	STL	6	4	10
30	04-20-2011	Jordan Zimmerman	Jaime Garcia	WAS	STL	STL	61.39	61.39	66.475	STL	3	5	8
31	04-21-2011	Tom Gorzelanny	Kyle LOhse	WAS	STL	STL	61.165	61.165	63.603	STL	0	5	5
32	06-17-2011	Felipe Paulino	Chris Carpenter	KC	STL	STL	61.089	61.089	65.861	KC	5	4	9
33	06-18-2011	Vin Mazzaro	Jake Westbrook	KC	STL	STL	60.938	60.938	69.209	STL	4	5	9
34	09-04-11	Bronson Arroyo	Edwin Jackson	CIN	STL	STL	60.861	60.861	64.501	CIN	3	2	5
35	08-25-2011	Charlie Morton	Edwin Jackson	PIT	STL	STL	60.861	60.861	66.449	STL	4	8	12
36	08-26-2011	James McDonald	Jake Westbrook	PIT	STL	STL	60.707	60.707	67.049	STL	4	5	9
37	06-05-11	Carlos Zambrano	Chris Carpenter	CHN	STL	STL	60.552	60.552	62.082	STL	2	3	5
38	09-26-2011	Jaime Garcia	Wandy Rodriguez	STL	HOU	STL	59.92	59.92	65.129	HOU	4	5	9
39	08-14-2011	Esmil Rogers	Edwin Jackson	COL	STL	STL	59.759	59.759	59.852	STL	2	6	8
40	09-10-11	Derek Lowe	Jaime Garcia	ATL	STL	STL	59.432	59.432	66.521	STL	3	4	7
41	04-23-2011	Travis Wood	Chris Carpenter	CIN	STL	STL	59.432	59.432	53.936	CIN	5	3	8
42	08-28-2011	Jeff Karstens	Kyle Lohse	PIT	STL	STL	59.432	59.432	66.775	STL	4	7	11
43	09-03-11	Homer Bailey	Jaime Garcia	CIN	STL	STL	59.35	59.35	66.799	STL	4	6	10
44	04-04-11	Charlie Morton	Kyle Lohse	PIT	STL	STL	59.016	59.016	60.583	PIT	4	3	7
45	08-12-11	Aaron Cook	Kyle Lohse	COL	STL	STL	58.932	58.932	58.887	STL	1	6	7
46	04-03-11	Dustin Moseley	Jaime Garcia	SD	STL	STL	58.848	58.848	60.075	STL	0	2	2
47	05-12-11	Jaime Garcia	Casey Coleman	STL	CHN	STL	58.848	58.848	64.523	STL	9	1	10
48	07-05-11	Edinson Volquez	Jaime Garcia	CIN	STL	STL	58.763	58.763	60.467	STL	1	8	9
49	05-06-11	Randy Wolf	Jaime Garcia	MIL	STL	STL	58.763	58.763	70.691	STL	6	0	6
50	06-08-11	Jaime Garcia	Bud Norris	STL	HOU	STL	58.592	58.592	59.814	HOU	1	4	5
51	06-25-2011	Carlos Villanueva	Jaime Garcia	TOR	STL	STL	58.592	58.592	68.3	TOR	6	3	9
52	08-24-2011	Hiroki Kuroda	Jaime Garcia	LAN	STL	STL	58.592	58.592	67.224	LAN	9	4	13
53	04-20-2011	John Lannan	Jake Westbrook	WAS	STL	STL	58.506	58.506	54.806	WAS	8	6	14
54	05-30-2011	Madison Bumgarner	Kyle McClellan	SF	STL	STL	58.506	58.506	50.153	SF	7	3	10
55	09-06-11	Yovanni Gallardo	Kyle Lohse	MIL	STL	STL	58.071	58.071	57.932	STL	2	4	6
56	07-31-2011	Ryan Dempster	Jake Westbrook	CHN	STL	STL	58.071	58.071	57.787	CHN	6	3	9
57	08-16-2011	Chris Carpenter	Jeff Karstens	STL	PIT	STL	57.895	57.895	65.703	PIT	4	5	9
58	08-19-2011	Jaime Garcia	Randy Wells	STL	CHN	STL	57.895	57.895	65.068	CHN	4	5	9
59	09-14-2011	Edwin Jackson	Charlie Morton	STL	PIT	STL	57.895	57.895	55.771	STL	3	2	5
60	06-14-2011	Jaime Garcia	Yunesky Maya	STL	WAS	STL	57.717	57.717	65.542	WAS	6	8	14
61	05-17-2011	Roy Oswalt	Jaime Garcia	PHI	STL	STL	57.627	57.627	62.203	STL	1	2	3
62	09-02-11	Johnny Cueto	Chris Carpenter	CIN	STL	STL	57.537	57.537	64.681	CIN	11	8	19
63	07-07-11	Joe Saunders	Kyle McClellan	ARI	STL	STL	57.356	57.356	65.692	ARI	4	1	5
64	04-05-11	James McDonald	Kyle McClellan	PIT	STL	STL	57.265	57.265	57.019	STL	2	3	5
65	07-09-11	Daniel Hudson	Chris Carpenter	ARI	STL	STL	57.173	57.173	60.232	STL	6	7	13
66	04-12-11	Chris Carpenter	Armando Galarraga	STL	ARI	STL	57.173	57.173	60.991	ARI	8	13	21
67	04-28-2011	Kyle McClellan	Neslon Figueroa	STL	HOU	STL	56.803	56.803	58.881	STL	11	7	18
68	06-29-2011	Chris Carpenter	Chris Jakubauskas	STL	BAL	STL	56.803	56.803	49.14	STL	5	1	6
69	07-23-2011	Jaime Garcia	Kevin Correia	STL	PIT	STL	56.616	56.616	63.663	STL	9	1	10
70	04-22-2011	Edinson Volquez	Kyle McClellan	CIN	STL	STL	56.236	56.236	52.463	STL	2	4	6
71	04-27-2011	Kyle Lohse	J.A. Happ	STL	HOU	STL	56.236	56.236	64.05	STL	6	5	11
72	05-23-2011	Kyle Lohse	Dustin Moseley	STL	SD	STL	56.236	56.236	56.39	STL	3	1	4
73	05-03-11	Anibal Sanchez	Kyle McClellan	FLA	STL	STL	56.14	56.14	56.1	STL	5	7	12
74	05-08-11	Chris Narveson	Kyle McClellan	MIL	STL	STL	56.14	56.14	61.277	STL	1	3	4
75	08-15-2011	Jake Westbrook	James McDonald	STL	PIT	STL	56.044	56.044	59.707	PIT	2	6	8
76	04-26-2011	Jaime Garcia	Bud Norris	STL	HOU	STL	55.85	55.85	61.14	HOU	5	6	11
77	06-30-2011	Jaime Garcia	Brian Matusz	STL	BAL	STL	55.85	55.85	53.433	STL	9	6	15
78	07-22-2011	Chris Carpenter	Paul Maholm	STL	PIT	STL	55.85	55.85	57.543	STL	6	4	10
79	08-21-2011	Jake Westbrook	Rodrigo Lopez	STL	CHN	STL	55.85	55.85	57.973	STL	6	2	8
80	04-02-11	Clayton Richard	Jake Westbrook	SD	STL	STL	55.556	55.556	50.369	SD	11	3	14
81	08-06-11	Chris Carpenter	Ricky Nolasco	STL	FLA	STL	55.457	55.457	54.403	STL	2	1	3
82	05-07-11	Yovanni Gallardo	Kyle Lohse	MIL	STL	STL	55.457	55.457	63.783	MIL	4	0	4
83	08-11-11	Yovanni Gallardo	Jake Westbrook	MIL	STL	STL	55.457	55.457	56.971	STL	2	5	7
84	07-29-2011	Matt Garza	Edwin Jackson	CHN	STL	STL	55.457	55.457	63.967	STL	2	9	11
85	06-07-11	Jake Westbrook	Brett Myers	STL	HOU	STL	55.257	55.257	59.083	STL	7	4	11
86	09-09-11	Randall Delgado	Edwin Jackson	ATL	STL	STL	55.056	55.056	67.966	STL	3	4	7
87	05-21-2011	Jake Westbrook	Nathan Adcock	STL	KC	STL	54.955	54.955	62.213	STL	3	0	3
88	07-06-11	Bronson Arroyo	Jake Westbrook	CIN	STL	STL	54.853	54.853	59.929	CIN	9	8	17
89	08-10-11	Randy Wolf	Jake Westbrook	MIL	STL	STL	54.853	54.853	62.488	MIL	5	1	6
90	09-12-11	Kyle Lohse	Brad Lincoln	STL	PIT	STL	54.853	54.853	58.742	PIT	5	6	11
91	04-17-2011	Chris Carpenter	Chad Billingsley	STL	LAN	STL	54.649	54.649	50.087	LAN	1	2	3
92	05-20-2011	Chris Carpenter	Jeff Francis	STL	KC	STL	54.649	54.649	57.18	KC	0	3	3
93	05-24-2011	Kyle McClellan	Aaron Harang	STL	SD	STL	54.649	54.649	51.938	STL	3	2	5
94	08-17-2011	Kyle Lohse	Paul Maholm	STL	PIT	STL	54.649	54.649	55.054	STL	7	2	9
95	06-02-11	Jonathan Sanchez	Lance Lynn	SF	STL	STL	54.545	54.545	50.932	SF	12	7	19
96	08-07-11	Jaime Garcia	Javier Vazquez	STL	FLA	STL	54.545	54.545	60.715	STL	8	4	12
97	05-28-2011	Jaime Garcia	Juan Nicasio	STL	COL	STL	54.442	54.442	58.058	COL	4	15	19
98	09-07-11	Zach Greinke	Chris Carpenter	MIL	STL	STL	54.233	54.233	61.079	STL	0	2	2
99	07-16-2011	Chris Carpenter	Bronson Arroyo	STL	CIN	STL	54.233	54.233	58.354	STL	4	1	5
100	07-08-11	Ian Kennedy	Kyle Lohse	ARI	STL	STL	54.023	54.023	63.035	ARI	7	6	13
101	07-04-11	Johnny Cueto	Chris Carpenter	CIN	STL	STL	53.811	53.811	53.796	STL	0	1	1
102	05-25-2011	Chris Carpenter	Mat Latos	STL	SD	STL	53.596	53.596	53.385	SD	1	3	4
103	07-24-2011	Kyle Lohse	Charlie Morton	STL	PIT	STL	53.38	53.38	52.889	PIT	3	4	7
104	08-09-11	Shaun Marcum	Edwin Jackson	MIL	STL	STL	53.162	53.162	63.942	MIL	5	3	8
105	09-05-11	Randy Wolf	Jake Westbrook	MIL	STL	STL	52.719	52.719	62.047	MIL	4	1	5
106	04-11-11	Kyle McClellan	Barry Enright	STL	ARI	STL	52.381	52.381	53.214	STL	8	2	10
107	08-23-2011	Clayton Kershaw	Kyle Lohse	LAN	STL	STL	52.153	52.153	41.133	LAN	13	2	15
108	06-15-2011	Kyle McClellan	Livan Hernandez	STL	WAS	STL	51.807	51.807	46.584	WAS	0	10	10
109	05-10-11	Chris Carpenter	Carlos Zambrano	STL	CHN	STL	51.691	51.691	50.484	STL	6	4	10
110	04-24-2011	Sam LeCure	Jake Westbrook	CIN	STL	STL	51.456	51.456	53.038	STL	0	3	3
111	05-15-2011	Chris Carpenter	Travis Wood	STL	CIN	STL	51.456	51.456	41.174	CIN	7	9	16
112	06-23-2011	Roy Oswalt	Chris Carpenter	PHI	STL	STL	51.338	51.338	50.064	STL	2	12	14
113	06-09-11	Lance Lynn	J.A. Happ	STL	HOU	STL	51.1	51.1	52.302	STL	9	2	11
114	08-03-11	Edwin Jackson	Randy Wolf	STL	MIL	STL	50.86	50.86	57.658	MIL	5	10	15
115	06-24-2011	Brandon Morrow	Jake Westbrook	TOR	STL	STL	50.739	50.739	49.526	TOR	5	4	9
116	08-20-2011	Edwin Jackson	Matt Garza	STL	CHN	CHN	50.249	49.751	52.169	CHN	0	3	3
117	07-17-2011	Jaime Garcia	Homer Bailey	STL	CIN	CIN	50.495	49.505	58.649	CIN	1	3	4
118	06-16-2011	Kyle Lohse	John Lannan	STL	WAS	WAS	50.617	49.383	50.431	WAS	4	7	11
119	06-10-11	Kyle Lohse	Chris Narveson	STL	MIL	MIL	50.739	49.261	53.051	MIL	0	8	8
120	07-19-2011	Kyle Lohse	Dillon Gee	STL	NYN	NYN	50.86	49.14	54.689	NYN	2	4	6
121	07-20-2011	Kyle McClellan	R.A. Dickey	STL	NYN	NYN	51.1	48.9	51.08	NYN	5	6	11
122	05-01-11	Jaime Garcia	Derek Lowe	STL	ATL	ATL	51.22	48.78	57.048	ATL	5	6	11
123	04-29-2011	Chris Carpenter	Tim Hudson	STL	ATL	ATL	51.338	48.662	51.624	STL	5	3	8
124	04-15-2011	Kyle LOhse	Jon Garland	STL	LAN	LAN	52.494	47.506	48.94	STL	11	2	13
125	06-01-11	Tim Lincecum	Jake Westbrook	SF	STL	SF	52.719	47.281	52.674	SF	7	5	12
126	04-13-2011	Jake Westbrook	Ian Kennedy	STL	ARI	ARI	52.719	47.281	47.611	STL	15	5	20
127	07-21-2011	Jake Westbrook	John Niese	STL	NYN	NYN	52.719	47.281	44.866	STL	6	2	8
128	04-14-2011	Jaime Garcia	Hiroki Kuroda	STL	LAN	LAN	52.83	47.17	54.651	STL	9	5	14
129	08-04-11	Kyle Lohse	Anibal Sanchez	STL	FLA	FLA	52.941	47.059	47.093	STL	7	4	11
130	06-26-2011	Ricky Romero	Kyle McClellan	TOR	STL	TOR	52.941	47.059	50.666	TOR	5	0	5
131	09-11-11	Tim Hudson	Jake Westbrook	ATL	STL	ATL	53.38	46.62	58.894	STL	3	6	9
132	09-18-2011	Chris Carpenter	Cole Hamels	STL	PHI	PHI	53.38	46.62	46.11	STL	5	0	5
133	05-13-2011	Kyle Lohse	Bronson Arroyo	STL	CIN	CIN	53.811	46.189	57.901	CIN	5	6	11
134	08-01-11	Chris Carpenter	Zach Greinke	STL	MIL	MIL	54.338	45.662	50.679	MIL	2	6	8
135	05-11-11	Jake Westbrook	Matt Garza	STL	CHN	CHN	54.442	45.558	45.571	CHN	4	11	15
136	06-11-11	Chris Carpenter	Zach Greinke	STL	MIL	MIL	54.545	45.455	48.91	MIL	3	5	8
137	08-05-11	Jake Westbrook	Anibal Sanchez	STL	FLA	FLA	54.649	45.351	46.544	STL	3	2	5
138	05-14-2011	Kyle McClellan	Johnny Cueto	STL	CIN	CIN	54.649	45.351	45.326	CIN	3	7	10
139	08-02-11	Jaime Garcia	Shaun Marcum	STL	MIL	MIL	54.853	45.147	58.131	STL	8	7	15
140	07-01-11	Jake Westbrook	Wade Davis	STL	TB	TB	55.457	44.543	46.829	STL	5	3	8
141	05-29-2011	Kyle Lohse	Jhoulys Chacin	STL	COL	COL	55.457	44.543	45.209	STL	4	3	7
142	07-02-11	Kyle McClellan	Jeff Niemann	STL	TB	TB	55.85	44.15	44.959	TB	1	5	6
143	05-16-2011	Cliff Lee	Jake Westbrook	PHI	STL	PHI	55.85	44.15	47.791	STL	1	3	4
144	08-31-2011	Jake Westbrook	Randy Wolf	STL	MIL	MIL	56.427	43.573	51.313	STL	8	3	11
145	06-28-2011	Kyle Lohse	Zach Britton	STL	BAL	BAL	56.616	43.384	39.615	STL	6	2	8
146	09-16-2011	Jaime Garcia	Vance Worley	STL	PHI	PHI	56.803	43.197	49.496	STL	4	2	6
147	05-05-11	Josh Johnson	Jake Westbrook	FLA	STL	FLA	57.082	42.918	49.917	STL	3	6	9
148	04-10-11	Kyle LOhse	Barry Zito	STL	SF	SF	57.173	42.827	44.116	STL	6	1	7
149	09-17-2011	Jake Westbrook	Roy Oswalt	STL	PHI	PHI	57.627	42.373	44.12	PHI	2	9	11
150	04-30-2011	Jake Westbrook	Brandon Beachy	STL	ATL	ATL	57.806	42.194	50.117	STL	3	2	5
151	07-03-11	Kyle Lohse	Jeremy Hellickson	STL	TB	TB	58.159	41.841	45.093	TB	3	8	11
152	06-22-2011	Cliff Lee	Kyle Lohse	PHI	STL	PHI	58.246	41.754	39.686	PHI	4	0	4
153	04-16-2011	Kyle McClellan	Clayton Kershaw	STL	LAN	LAN	58.42	41.58	38.453	STL	9	2	11
154	04-09-11	Jaime Garcia	Matt Cain	STL	SF	SF	59.267	40.733	43.395	SF	2	3	5
155	08-30-2011	Edwin Jackson	Shaun Marcum	STL	MIL	MIL	59.432	40.568	51.73	STL	2	1	3
156	06-12-11	Jake Westbrook	Shaun Marcum	STL	MIL	MIL	59.677	40.323	48.698	MIL	3	4	7
157	05-27-2011	Jake Westbrook	Ubaldo Jimenez	STL	COL	COL	59.759	40.241	41.474	STL	10	3	13
158	07-15-2011	Jake Westbrook	Johnny Cueto	STL	CIN	CIN	60.239	39.761	46.399	CIN	5	6	11
159	04-08-11	Jake Westbrook	Jonathan Sanchez	STL	SF	SF	61.089	38.911	39.136	SF	4	6	10
160	06-21-2011	Roy Halladay	Kyle McClellan	PHI	STL	PHI	61.464	38.536	37.722	PHI	10	2	12
161	09-01-11	Brandon Dickson	Yovanni Gallardo	STL	MIL	MIL	63.168	36.832	43.769	STL	8	4	12
162	09-19-2011	Kyle Lohse	Roy Halladay	STL	PHI	PHI	65.812	34.188	36.23	STL	4	3	7

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Comments

WOW

This is really awesome. Have you been doing posts like this for recent championship teams or are we just special?

Also, given the crazy late-season run, it’s a little weird to see that the Cardinals basically fell nicely in the middle between the simulations and the Vegas odds. Baseball is a strange game sometimes.

by mattybobo on Nov 12, 2011 6:54 PM EST reply actions

Posts

this is the first year I’ve done posts like these. It is easy for me to do for all teams now. I’ve done a few other Fanposts for other teams. If it wasn’t for that late season hot streak, the actual win total would’ve been close in line with Vegas (or maybe below).

Dodger Sims | Twitter | Xei On Sports

by Xeifrank on Nov 12, 2011 10:59 PM EST up reply actions

So the Cards lost the game they were most likely to win

and won the two games they were most likely to lose. Sounds about right.

#HappySeason

by The Continental on Nov 12, 2011 11:20 PM EST reply actions

basebol

Sign Roy O

by guayzimi on Nov 13, 2011 10:05 AM EST up reply actions

that's how they do it!

11!

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 13, 2011 11:46 AM EST up reply actions

yep, was going to make that comment.

and i thought the lohse v halladay game might be the most unwinnable of the year.

i fail at teh subjunctive

by stlcardinalsfang on Nov 15, 2011 1:33 PM EST up reply actions

Some extra data...

Cardinals actual wins vs Vegas/Sim expected wins by thirds of the regular season.

First third of the season:
Vegas Expected Team Wins: 28.81
Simulator Expected Team Wins: 30.03
Actual Team Wins: 32

Middle third of the season:
Vegas: 29.16
Simulator: 30.51
Actual: 25

Last third of the season:
Vegas: 29.91
Simulator: 32.21
Actual: 33

My simulator was closer than Vegas to the actual win total in the first third of the season. Then in the middle third of the season, both Vegas and my simulator expected a slight uptick in wins from the first third of the season, but that did not happen. In the last third of the season, Vegas and my simulator once again saw an improving team but the Cardinals still outplayed the simulator by three quarters of a win and Vegas by over three wins.

Dodger Sims | Twitter | Xei On Sports

by Xeifrank on Nov 20, 2011 4:33 PM EST reply actions 3 recs

Individual pitchers

how many team wins the Cardinals got with each starting pitcher vs how many Vegas expected from their starts.

1. Chris Carpenter
Vegas Expected Team W/L: 19.3 – 16.7
Actual Team W/L: 15-18

2. Jaime Garcia
Vegas: 20.1 – 11.9
Actual: 19-13

3. Edwin Jackson
Vegas: 7.4 – 4.6
Actual: 8-4

4. Kyle Lohse
Vegas: 16.6 – 13.4
Actual: 17-13

5. Jake Westbrook
Vegas: 18.3 – 15.7
Actual: 19 – 15

6. Kyle McClellan
Vegas: 9.5 – 8.5
Actual: 10-8

Notes: Carpenter was really the only starting pitcher who the Cardinals win total differed a lot from what Vegas expected. The Cardinals got 4.3 less wins from Carpenters starts than expected. Every other pitcher was pretty much right in line with Vegas.

Dodger Sims | Twitter | Xei On Sports

by Xeifrank on Nov 20, 2011 4:40 PM EST reply actions 3 recs

Games Cardinals should've won

Now let’s break down the season in thirds by the games the Cardinals were the largest favorites to win in.

Top third of favored games:
Vegas Expected Team Wins: 33.43
Simulator Expected Team Wins: 35.67
Actual Team Wins: 33
Notes: The Cardinals pretty much performed as expected in the games they were the largest favorites to win.

Middle third of favored games:
Vegas Expected Team Wins: 29.97
Simulator Expected Team Wins: 31.44
Actual Team Wins: 29
Notes: Once again right in line with Vegas. Slightly below but not by too much.

Bottom third of favored games:
Vegas expected team wins: 24.48
Simulator expected team wins: 26.13
Actual Team Wins: 28
Notes: This is where the Cardinals team shined. They won 3.5 more games than what Vegas expected from them in the games where they were the least favored.

Dodger Sims | Twitter | Xei On Sports

by Xeifrank on Nov 20, 2011 4:48 PM EST reply actions 3 recs