FanPost

World Series Game #7 Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate every single game in the major leagues this season and am doing so for the World Series. I am posting the output of today's simulation, giving you a box score along with a table of the top 150 most likely final scores and the win expectancy of each team. My simulator incorporates a set of proprietary hitter and pitcher projections along with defense, park factors, weather, speed, splits, estimated actual lineups, a model for tiring pitchers and an engine for relieving pitchers based off of the score and the leverage index of the game (among many other things...). I simulated the game 100,000 times. You may notice that in the distribution of the likely final scores there are many one run home team victories near the top. This is due to the rules of baseball, with the home team batting last and sometimes winning by one run in walk off fashion.  Below is the data.

Simulation last ranFriday at 3:34 PM PST

Away Home Starting Pitchers Favorite Vegas Win% Vegas Runs Simulator Win% Simulator Runs
TEX STL M.Harrison vs C.Carpenter STL 55.56% 7.8 53.70% 7.11

 


Note: These are the actual starting lineups

Box Score

NameABHitsH1H2H3HRRBIBBSOwOBA
Ian Kinsler 4.314 1.126 0.74 0.248 0.018 0.12 0.333 0.341 0.661 0.318
Elvis Andrus 4.254 1.156 0.907 0.204 0.017 0.026 0.235 0.264 0.731 0.296
Josh Hamilton 4.246 1.257 0.804 0.297 0.04 0.116 0.454 0.276 0.958 0.349
Michael Young 4.158 1.262 0.951 0.239 0.018 0.053 0.416 0.221 0.709 0.33
Adrian Beltre 4.106 1.183 0.744 0.299 0.004 0.136 0.553 0.172 0.704 0.336
Nelson Cruz 3.96 1.004 0.643 0.233 0.007 0.122 0.45 0.206 1.071 0.303
Mike Napoli 3.773 0.98 0.646 0.224 0.003 0.107 0.408 0.286 1.019 0.315
David Murphy 3.539 0.774 0.55 0.146 0.01 0.067 0.3 0.443 1.312 0.287
Pitchers Spot 3.729 0.433 0.354 0.069 0.002 0.008 0.124 0.108 1.927 0.131
 
Ryan Theriot 4.257 1.207 0.83 0.323 0.022 0.033 0.273 0.326 0.532 0.323
Allen Craig 4.098 1.096 0.722 0.265 0.005 0.104 0.364 0.344 0.846 0.323
Albert Pujols 3.938 1.157 0.744 0.265 0.003 0.145 0.468 0.449 0.459 0.367
Lance Berkman 3.7 1.021 0.69 0.205 0.016 0.109 0.457 0.557 0.71 0.356
David Freese 3.907 1.116 0.753 0.285 0.013 0.065 0.457 0.289 0.787 0.33
Yadier Molina 3.774 1.067 0.735 0.266 0.006 0.06 0.419 0.297 0.456 0.327
Rafael Furcal 3.628 0.995 0.65 0.261 0.032 0.052 0.397 0.293 0.52 0.324
Skip Schumaker 3.583 1.009 0.753 0.199 0.026 0.031 0.362 0.257 0.511 0.315
Pitchers Spot 3.587 0.49 0.389 0.089 0.003 0.008 0.163 0.161 1.478 0.159

 

NameIPSOBBHitsHRPCFIP
Matt Harrison 6.247 4.19 2.119 6.622 0.424 98.682 3.759
Neftali Feliz 0.455 0.422 0.156 0.407 0.022 7.146 3.011
Mike Adams 0.427 0.388 0.099 0.403 0.026 6.515 2.857
Alexi Ogando 0.663 0.477 0.18 0.697 0.054 10.279 3.637
Mike Gonzalez 0.309 0.265 0.146 0.308 0.03 5.123 4.159
C.J. Wilson 0.47 0.407 0.191 0.457 0.029 7.606 3.48
Scott Feldman 0.224 0.139 0.077 0.248 0.021 3.564 4.186
Darren Oliver 0.015 0.012 0.005 0.015 0.001 0.239 3.584
 
Chris Carpenter 6.613 5.93 1.404 6.741 0.515 101.734 3.055
Jason Motte 0.462 0.578 0.102 0.371 0.025 7.067 2.052
Octavio Dotel 0.47 0.629 0.136 0.399 0.049 7.493 2.742
Marc Rzepczynski 0.662 0.759 0.305 0.614 0.057 11.105 3.41
Edwin Jackson 0.343 0.33 0.11 0.338 0.031 5.469 3.398
Lance Lynn 0.577 0.665 0.203 0.543 0.061 9.387 3.326
Fernando Salas 0.173 0.198 0.056 0.163 0.019 2.791 3.276
Jake Westbrook 0.007 0.005 0.003 0.007 0.001 0.115 3.961

 


Top 150 Most Likely Final Scores

1 STL 3-2   51 TEX 7-1   101 TEX 11-2
2 STL 4-3   52 STL 6-0   102 STL 9-7
3 STL 2-1   53 STL 7-5   103 TEX 10-6
4 STL 5-4   54 STL 8-7   104 STL 11-3
5 TEX 3-2   55 TEX 8-2   105 STL 11-2
6 TEX 4-3   56 TEX 8-3   106 STL 10-5
7 TEX 2-1   57 STL 8-2   107 STL 10-6
8 STL 4-2   58 TEX 6-0   108 TEX 11-4
9 STL 3-1   59 STL 8-3   109 TEX 11-1
10 TEX 4-2   60 TEX 8-4   110 STL 10-0
11 TEX 3-1   61 STL 8-1   111 TEX 11-5
12 STL 6-5   62 TEX 8-5   112 TEX 10-7
13 TEX 5-4   63 STL 8-4   113 TEX 10-0
14 TEX 5-3   64 STL 7-0   114 STL 10-9
15 STL 4-1   65 TEX 8-1   115 STL 10-7
16 STL 5-3   66 STL 8-5   116 STL 11-4
17 STL 5-2   67 STL 9-2   117 TEX 12-2
18 STL 1-0   68 TEX 8-6   118 STL 11-5
19 TEX 5-2   69 TEX 7-0   119 TEX 12-3
20 TEX 4-1   70 TEX 9-3   120 TEX 10-8
21 STL 2-0   71 TEX 9-2   121 STL 12-1
22 STL 5-1   72 TEX 9-1   122 STL 12-2
23 TEX 2-0   73 TEX 8-7   123 TEX 11-6
24 STL 6-3   74 STL 9-3   124 STL 12-3
25 TEX 6-3   75 TEX 9-4   125 TEX 11-0
26 STL 3-0   76 STL 8-6   126 TEX 12-1
27 TEX 6-5   77 STL 9-1   127 STL 12-4
28 STL 6-4   78 STL 8-0   128 TEX 12-4
29 TEX 6-4   79 STL 9-4   129 STL 11-6
30 TEX 5-1   80 STL 9-8   130 STL 10-8
31 TEX 1-0   81 TEX 9-5   131 STL 11-0
32 STL 6-2   82 STL 9-5   132 TEX 11-7
33 TEX 6-2   83 TEX 8-0   133 TEX 12-5
34 STL 7-6   84 TEX 9-6   134 STL 12-5
35 TEX 3-0   85 TEX 10-2   135 TEX 13-2
36 STL 4-0   86 TEX 10-3   136 TEX 11-8
37 STL 6-1   87 TEX 10-4   137 TEX 10-9
38 TEX 6-1   88 STL 10-1   138 STL 11-10
39 TEX 7-3   89 STL 10-2   139 STL 13-2
40 TEX 7-4   90 STL 9-6   140 TEX 13-3
41 STL 5-0   91 STL 10-3   141 STL 11-7
42 TEX 4-0   92 STL 10-4   142 STL 12-0
43 TEX 7-2   93 TEX 9-7   143 STL 13-3
44 STL 7-3   94 TEX 10-1   144 STL 13-4
45 STL 7-2   95 STL 9-0   145 TEX 12-6
46 TEX 7-5   96 TEX 10-5   146 TEX 13-1
47 STL 7-4   97 TEX 9-0   147 TEX 13-5
48 STL 7-1   98 TEX 9-8   148 TEX 12-0
49 TEX 5-0   99 TEX 11-3   149 STL 12-6
50 TEX 7-6   100 STL 11-1   150 STL 13-1



Note: Starting pitchers are not likely going to last as long as my simulator says they will. I don't have a switch in my program to allow for Game #7 World Series managing.

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