Inherited Runners Scored - The Film
Since we've got a couple of baseball-less days before the WS, I thought I'd share with VEB this short film I recently made (and also hopefully provide some analysis of the Cardinals bullpen this year.) I thought you guys would get a kick out of this film. It's called Inherited Runners Scored and it's about a baseball statistician who invents a stat called Inherited Earned Run Average, or IERA. It also features a lot of drinking (and a Mike Shannon bottle opener). Here's the film (click on the 720p setting for best quality):
So, I thought it would be fun to apply this made-up stat to the Cardinal's 2011 bullpen (although I'm not sure how edifying it will be.). Now, this stat is basically trying to incorporate inherited runs allowed by a reliever into their ERA. This would probably have been a great stat in the 80's, before sabermetrics. Like my character in the film, it's wallowing a bit in its own obsolescence. But, what the hell, let's give it a whirl...
In the film, the formula for this fictional stat is 9 * (ER + Inherited Runners Scored) / IP
However, when I think about this more and try to apply it to the Cardinals' 2011 bullpen, I realize that it doesn't take into account the percentage of inherited runners scored. For example, Jason Motte gave up a lot of inherited runs (18), but he also inherited a shit-ton of runners (56). Therefore, I decided to multiply the inherited runs scored by the percentage of runners scored. So, then the formula is:
9 * (ER + (Inherited Runners Scored * Inherited Scored %)) / IP
So, admittedly, this is kind of a ham-fisted stat that mashes ERA and IS% into one completely non-predictive metric. And I'm sure there are massive holes in my logic/math here.
Obviously there are much better stats to give us an idea about whether our relievers will be good going forward, but I have to admit that I still look at ERA before I look at the walk rate, K rate, WHIP etc for a reliever, perhaps more out of habit than anything else. I don't think I would mind having this makeshift stat presented to me by some hack announcers on a TBS broadcast.
Here's the Cardinal's numbers:
| Pitcher | ERA | ER | Inherited Baserunners | Inherited Runners Scored | Inherited Scored % | IP | IERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salas | 2.28 | 19 | 30 | 9 | 30% | 75 | 2.60 |
| Motte | 2.25 | 17 | 56 | 18 | 32% | 68 | 3.01 |
| Boggs | 3.56 | 24 | 17 | 3 | 18% | 60.2 | 3.64 |
| Lynn | 3.12 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 34.2 | 3.12 |
| Sanchez | 1.80 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 40% | 30 | 2.04 |
| Dotel | 3.28 | 9 | 18 | 3 | 17% | 24.2 | 3.47 |
| Scrabble | 3.97 | 10 | 12 | 4 | 33% | 22.2 | 4.49 |
| Franklin | 8.46 | 26 | 5 | 3 | 60% | 27.2 | 9.04 |
| Batista | 4.60 | 15 | 12 | 5 | 42% | 29.1 | 5.25 |
| 1989 Tom Gordon (as a reliever) | 3.14 | 23 | 33 | 16 | 48% | 66 | 4.18 |
Nobody fairs as poorly as '89 Tom Gordon. Motte has the biggest disparity between ERA and IERA for the 2011 Cards. Making this table, I realized that I had blocked out just how bad Franklin and Batista had been this year. 26 earned runs in 27 and 2/3 innings for Franklin. Jesus.
It's been fun to watch this bullpen in the postseason and hopefully they keep it up for another week. I think with Motte, Salas, Sanchez, Lynn, Boggs, and Scrabble the Cardinals should have a really good, affordable bullpen for the next few seasons.
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This is awesome
Incredibly high production value. Good writing. Good Acting. Great job.
check out VEB on facebook...just search groups for Viva El Birdos
Hey, thanks.
Glad you liked it.
Time and again we see the reliance on a proven methodology... a methodology separate from human experience... built upon figures, not feelings... which encourages our dependence on the empirical world... a world with no room for ground-rule doubles... Inherited Runners Scored
Great!
I had the pleasure of randomly meeting the filmmaker at a neighborhood bar in San Francisco during Game 6 against the Brewers on Sunday. We discovered we were both Cardinals fans, and then he asked “Do you ever read the blog Viva El Birdos?” and told me about this film. I have been waiting anxiously to see the film ever since (has it really only been 48 hours since Jason Motte’s last strikeout?), and it’s even better than I expected (good use of local musicians, too!). Totally great. Thanks for posting it. Hope to watch another game together in the future!
Patience is a virtue, until it's too late

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