FanPost

Inherited Runners Scored - The Film

 

Since we've got a couple of baseball-less days before the WS, I thought I'd share with VEB this short film I recently made (and also hopefully provide some analysis of the Cardinals bullpen this year.)  I thought you guys would get a kick out of this film.  It's called Inherited Runners Scored and it's about a baseball statistician who invents a stat called Inherited Earned Run Average, or IERA.  It also features a lot of drinking (and a Mike Shannon bottle opener).  Here's the film (click on the 720p setting for best quality):

 



 

So, I thought it would be fun to apply this made-up stat to the Cardinal's 2011 bullpen (although I'm not sure how edifying it will be.).  Now, this stat is basically trying to incorporate inherited runs allowed by a reliever into their ERA. This would probably have been a great stat in the 80's, before sabermetrics.  Like my character in the film, it's wallowing a bit in its own obsolescence.  But, what the hell, let's give it a whirl...

 

In the film, the formula for this fictional stat is 9 * (ER + Inherited Runners Scored) / IP

 

However, when I think about this more and try to apply it to the Cardinals' 2011 bullpen, I realize that it doesn't take into account the percentage of inherited runners scored.  For example, Jason Motte gave up a lot of inherited runs (18), but he also inherited a shit-ton of runners (56).   Therefore, I decided to multiply the inherited runs scored by the percentage of runners scored.  So, then the formula is:

 

9 * (ER + (Inherited Runners Scored * Inherited Scored %)) / IP 

 

So, admittedly,  this is kind of a ham-fisted stat that mashes ERA and IS% into one completely non-predictive metric. And I'm sure there are massive holes in my logic/math here.  

 

Obviously there are much better stats to give us an idea about whether our relievers will be good going forward, but I have to admit that I still look at ERA before I look at the walk rate, K rate, WHIP etc for a reliever, perhaps more out of habit than anything else.  I don't think I would mind having this makeshift stat presented to me by some hack announcers on a TBS broadcast.

 

Here's the Cardinal's numbers:

 

Pitcher ERA ER Inherited Baserunners Inherited Runners Scored Inherited Scored % IP IERA
Salas 2.28 19 30 9 30% 75 2.60
Motte 2.25 17 56 18 32% 68 3.01
Boggs 3.56 24 17 3 18% 60.2 3.64
Lynn 3.12 12 2 0 0% 34.2 3.12
Sanchez 1.80 6 5 2 40% 30 2.04
Dotel 3.28 9 18 3 17% 24.2 3.47
Scrabble 3.97 10 12 4 33% 22.2 4.49
Franklin 8.46 26 5 3 60% 27.2 9.04
Batista 4.60 15 12 5 42% 29.1 5.25
1989 Tom Gordon (as a reliever) 3.14 23 33 16 48% 66 4.18

 

Nobody fairs as poorly as '89 Tom Gordon.  Motte has the biggest disparity between ERA and IERA for the 2011 Cards.  Making this table, I realized that I had blocked out just how bad Franklin and Batista had been this year.  26 earned runs in 27 and 2/3 innings for Franklin.  Jesus.

It's been fun to watch this bullpen in the postseason and hopefully they keep it up for another week.  I think with Motte, Salas, Sanchez, Lynn, Boggs, and Scrabble the Cardinals should have a really good, affordable bullpen for the next few seasons.  

 

 

 

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Viva El Birdos

You must be a member of Viva El Birdos to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Viva El Birdos. You should read them.

Join Viva El Birdos

You must be a member of Viva El Birdos to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Viva El Birdos. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker