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Around SBN: The Most Dangerous Division in Sports

How Much Does $28M Buy (if not Pujols)?


So we're a mere one month away, give or take, from the start of Spring Training, and the Pujols Doomsday Clock (PDC) continues to tick ominously in the background.  Both sides are tight-lipped, but I'd wager there is a lot of money and years on the table.  And I want Pujols to sign with the Redbirds.  I really, really, do.  But.  Let's just pretend for a moment that the Cardinals and Albert reach an impasse, and the club realizes its not going to work.  What represents "Plan B"?  I thought I'd throw the floor open for discussion on this.

Star-divide

Lets just go ahead and make a wild assumption that the Cardinals are offering Albert something in the neighborhood of $28M per year, for say seven years.  That's $196M, not quite A-Rod territory, but still respectable.  And Albert still says no.  He'd rather head North and lead the Toronto Blue Jays for the next decade or so.  Heck, they gave Vernon Wells all that money, they'll probably pay him the equivalent of $35M for ten years in Canadian duckets.  And now the Cardinals have a black hole in their lineup.  How do we fix this?  Well, here's one idea, using the COTs Page for 2012 Free Agents.  I tried to double-check whether these guys had signed recently, so forgive me if I miss something.  But this is just a fun exercise after all.  Instead of Pujols, we could sign in 2012:

Jose Reyes:
.282 / .321 / .428

Ok, we gave up on Brendan Ryan.  And now we're experimenting with Theriot.  Well, Reyes may be more expensive, but he feels like a huge upgrade from what we've got.  If he's healthy (perhaps a significant if) he is a superior-level leadoff hitter.  Lots of steals, decent walk total.  He hits for good average, and even has a little homerun pop.  His fielding (according to Fangraphs, is slightly above average based on his TZ and UZR).  He's also young, 27 years old, so he should be entering the prime of his playing years.  Assuming he is given a very clean bill of health, he is probably one of the top five shortstops in the game. 

Contract (best guess): 3 Years, $30M
Estimated 2011 WAR: 3.9 

Robinson Cano:
.319 / .381 / .534

We've got money, so lets swing for the fences.  Cano has insane average and power.  He doesn't get injured much.  He is young at 28 years old.  His defense according to TZ and UZR is superb.  And escaping the American League East would potentially make his numbers look even better.  To say he would be an upgrade over Skip would be an understatement.  If he comes and plays in baseball mecca and would dominate.  And yes, he's the centerpiece of this plan.  And honestly, who wouldn't want to "out Yankee" the Yankees?

Contract (best guess): 6 Years, $72M
Estimated 2011 WAR: 5.2

Corey Hart:
.283 / .340 / .525

I ran myself in circles on this one.  What right fielder upgrades us the most and has the most upside?  Part of me thinks bringing back Ludwick would be brilliant.  But I'm not sure Ryan would take the deal.  I also considered Michael Cuddyer, who I think has tremendous upside and tore it up this year in Minnesota.  But Hart was my final selection for a few reasons.  He hits for solid average.  He has great power (31 HRs last year).  And he is young (28 years old) and should have many solid years ahead.  His fielding is a bit subpar, but RF is hardly the most demanding spot to defend. 

Contract (best guess): 3 Years, $18M
Estimated 2011 WAR: 1.6

TOTAL COST OF PLAYERS PER YEAR - $28M

>>>>>>>

There are dozens of other permutations to this that I could have tried.  I thought about trading Pujols mid-season and picking up someone else.  Maybe the Orioles would ship us Nick Markakis and his $11M salary, or we try and get Andre Ethier from the Dodgers, who hits well and is cost-controlled for a bit.  But in the end, I went with this mix.  These guys all appear to be free-agent eligible, and are upgrades from what we've got.   

So let's look at our imaginary lineup, minus Pujols, but with the new adds.  How would this team do?

1. Jose Reyes (SS)
2. Colby Rasmus (CF)
3. Robinson Cano (2B)
4. Matt Holliday (LF)
5. Corey Hart (RF)
6. Allen Craig (1B)
7. David Freese (3B)
8. Yadier Molina (C)
9. Pitcher TBD

To me, this lineup has a very satisfying amount of balance.  We still have premiere hitters in the 3/4 slots.  We have added speed.  We have mostly upgraded defense.  And despite losing Albert, we actually add power.  We've reduced our long-term commitments.  We have gotten considerably younger.  And since 1B is a relatively low-difficulty position as defense goes, we've got some more flexibility

Now... this is the part where you laugh, flame, insult, deride and dismiss me.  I'm perfectly ok with that.  Doubtless, you guys have other ideas about what would make sense.  You'll say that Albert gives us intangibles that can't be replaced by other players.  You'll say that the Mang can will us to win, and that can't be replaced.  And you're probably right.  But I would argue that this team would win the NL Central.  What do you think? 

Comment 30 comments  |  1 recs  | 

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I think that these type of posts are a bit premature

won’t be that much longer til we find out if there’s a contract to be had this season. but I still gave a rec, because I like the idea of a Cano/Reyes middle infield. not too big on Corey Hart though, but there will be other options.

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 22, 2011 10:46 PM EST reply actions  

You are severely underestimating the amount of money that will be given to Reyes and Cano

They will get closer to twice the AAV you are paying them, and Reyes will get many more years.

by oplaid on Jan 22, 2011 11:23 PM EST reply actions  

yeah

that seemed like a bit much… one of those guys maybe

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 23, 2011 3:31 AM EST up reply actions  

That really depends on how Reyes performs

He hasn’t played a full season since 2008, and he seems to steal bases less and his OBP last year was abysmal. I reckon someone is going to wind up overpaying for him and i hope its not the Cardinals.

Cano will probably get significantly more, and probably from the Yankees.

by Aranathor on Jan 23, 2011 10:11 AM EST up reply actions  

He was still worth 2.8 WAR last season

And that was with a slow start with the bat. I’d bet he’s mostly back to normal this year, with a bit less SBs, but he’s still one of the top SS in the league.

Even if he’s just going to be a 3 WAR player, though, he’s still worth more and going to get paid a lot more than $10 million a year. If he has a bounce back season and gets back up to the 5+ WAR level he was earlier in his career, then he could end up pushing $20 million with the way contracts went this season.

by oplaid on Jan 23, 2011 6:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Possibly

Well, Reyes has had some recent history of injury. And we would be paying him above his going rate by about 10-20%.

You’re right that Cano is worth a lot. But how much then? Do you really see the Yankees offering him some insane six-year, $150M contract? Because even they can’t afford that. Can they?…

by JWO on Jan 23, 2011 1:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Under Estimating

how much money these guys are going to get, especially Cano. The market can change but estimating the 2012 market based on what Crawford & Werth got this year makes me believe that you just about need to double your estimations. Maybe you could get two of the three but no way will you get all three and probably not any two if Cano is one of the two.

by Warcard on Jan 23, 2011 10:10 AM EST reply actions  

If Cano is going to cost $24M per season, as you're suggesting

Then the Cardinals should just give Albert $30M, 8-years, and give up.

by JWO on Jan 23, 2011 1:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Double might be a bit of an exagerration...

but expect Cano to get $20M+ per year and Reyes (if healthy) to get $16M+ for 5+ years.

Jimmy Ballgame for 2011 RFer!!!

by cardzfanbub on Jan 24, 2011 11:36 AM EST up reply actions  

Personally, i would LOVE for the Cards to get a hold of some Orioles

Markakis would be a great pick-up. But his extension makes that seem unlikely; the O’s have Wieters, Matusz and Jones as cost-controlled very promising players. They don’t need the salary dump.

by Aranathor on Jan 23, 2011 10:17 AM EST reply actions  

Cano has no-brainer club options through 2013...

and the other guys are wildly underpaid, as mentioned above. The thing to do now is to completely avoid the free agent market unless you’re going for a Holliday/Crawford/Pujols type. Everything in the middle is a big waste of money.

Sign Carl Pavano!!!

by guayzimi on Jan 23, 2011 10:57 AM EST reply actions  

We should have traded for Uggla and signed him and signed JJ Hardy.

The remaining money we should have committed to going ridiculously over slot for the next Austin Wilson for the next three or four years.

Holliday/Ras/Jay in the OF

Freese/Hardy/Uggla/Craig or Hamilton in the IF

and a steady stream of ten foot tall atomic supermen with octagonal bodies eughahahehehe….(trails off)

Enter vivaelpujols
My great wit allows me to interject that by assuming the partakers of this conversation are inbedded and perhaps romantically entangled, rather than indeed, the truthful observation that they are both platonic and standing upright. Great comedy may be produced!! -Aranathor

by hazel on Jan 23, 2011 3:25 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

Viva El Bar

of course

…no, I can’t seem to contribute intelligently. Sticking to my strengths.

would've.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Jan 23, 2011 5:36 PM EST reply actions  

Don't see $28 million going to anyone but Albert

DeWitt would increase the payroll $12 million for Albert. If Albert doesn’t sign, payroll would probably stay just over $100 million. That means the Cards would only have $16 million to buy replacements.

by ubeddie on Jan 23, 2011 7:36 PM EST reply actions  

i agree with this 100%

payroll isn’t going up without Albert. With Albert i’d say it goes up $12-15 million.

by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Jan 23, 2011 10:52 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Hart just signed an extension

that takes him through 2013. Cano will make much more than $72 million (in all likelihood) when he’s a free agent after 2013 and Reyes, if he’s good this year, will sign a much bigger contract than 3/30. If he’s not good, he won’t be worth that sort of deal.

And Albert’s not signing w/ the Jays. If he’s not a Cardinal, it’ll probably be the Angels, Dodgers or Cubs.

by chuckb on Jan 24, 2011 7:59 PM EST reply actions  

Going from Pujols to Allen Craig...

would be the biggest downgrade at any position in the history of baseball. We dont want that

"I don't take no anesthetic. Did Lincoln ask for any girlie gas when they blowed his head off?"

by boba schrute on Jan 26, 2011 10:23 PM EST reply actions  

Actually,

if we were to take Pujols prospective salary of $28M and actually turn it into Reyes and Cano as the author describes, Reyes/Cano/Craig is quite a bit better than Theriot/Schu/Pujols.

It really doesn’t matter if we downgrade a position. The point is that the aggregate talent needs to stay the same or get better. Of course Craig is worse than Pujols. We don’t need a fanpost to point that out.

Enter vivaelpujols
My great wit allows me to interject that by assuming the partakers of this conversation are inbedded and perhaps romantically entangled, rather than indeed, the truthful observation that they are both platonic and standing upright. Great comedy may be produced!! -Aranathor

by hazel on Jan 27, 2011 10:34 AM EST up reply actions  

Jack Clark to Bob Hoerner in '88

was pretty bad. Hoerner was overweight and had been playing in Japan.

Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose and sometime it rains.

by garden nome on Feb 2, 2011 10:31 AM EST up reply actions  

espn saying AP will veto trades

Do you know the list of 11 free agents?

This guys so good(Pujols) He should be illegal-Pirates announcers

by punchinjudy on Jan 29, 2011 8:58 AM EST reply actions   1 recs

hoping they re-sign him, but heres thoughts

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/03/2012-mlb-free-agents.html

this list doesnt excite me at all. Bunch of guys at the midway point.

Get wainos Option
see how carp does this year, re-sign 2 year contract or so. Not bad for a older injury risk guy
-if AP leaves..1b options

-maybe, cantu, kotchman or Nady….or Bring up Mr anderson and have him play 1st.

I wonder if at the deadline if AP isnt signed if they trade sme of the young guys for a 1b.

all this said…re-sign please

This guys so good(Pujols) He should be illegal-Pirates announcers

by punchinjudy on Jan 29, 2011 9:48 AM EST up reply actions  

2012 Free Agent Class

If Pujols were available and the Red Sox bought on him then that means that Adrian Gonzalez would be available.

I don’t want to see Pujols leave but Adrian Gonzalez manning first base for about 10 million less per year would certainly soften the sting.

by WizardofOz1982 on Jan 31, 2011 6:46 PM EST up reply actions  

not sure why that got struck

This guys so good(Pujols) He should be illegal-Pirates announcers

by punchinjudy on Jan 29, 2011 9:49 AM EST reply actions  

dashes

If you don't want my foot on your throat, I'll need to hear the safe word.

by spants on Jan 29, 2011 11:29 AM EST up reply actions  

Something that isn't being talked about much..

(Well, I haven’t seen it anyway…) Is the fact that AP is contributing all that he does while just taking-up one slot in the lineup. We talk about replacing his production, but you’ll be doing so by eating up the production at other positions.

If we consider AP’s production as some sort of “baseline” production for the offense, we then have seven (not counting P) slots left by which to build upon. If you are thinking you can replace Pujols’ production with three players (none of which, by the way, are we guaranteed to be able to sign; definitely not without greatly overpaying for each individual), you are only able to improve upon your baseline production with five more spots in the lineup.

This is related, I guess, to saying that a Reyes/Cano/Hart trio would rate better than AP/Schu/Theriot… but perhaps the issue there is spending $6MM to “enjoy” Schu and Theriot and not the $30MM on AP.

by soil_illini on Jan 29, 2011 12:19 PM EST reply actions  

But then, you can also say there's a risk hedging process there

if you distribute your money amongst several players, it’s unlikely that ALL of them will be injured or ineffective. You invest all of that in one superstar however, you’ve put all of your eggs in one basket. You could very well end up paying $33M to a Pujols on the 60 Day DL.

They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...

by Valatan on Jan 29, 2011 1:38 PM EST up reply actions  

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