Mistakes I Made
by kindred on Sep 3, 2010 4:37 PM EDT
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PrintAs this season has spiraled completely out of control, I've spent a little bit of time (not much) thinking about what Cardinals decisions I've been wrong about over the past few years, as well as the reasons why I made those mistakes. I thought it might be a good exercise for me, and maybe some of you, to do. Most of these opinions were expressed here in some form or other, and I went around and around with some of you over them. (I'm an oldie who's too busy to keep up with all the memes anymore, but I used to post a lot.) My list:
1. Chris Duncan's call-up. When Pujols strained his oblique in 2006, I advocated for calling up Brian Daubach instead of Duncan. Daubach was a better stop-gap in a pennant race, I thought. His minor league numbers were better than Duncan's, he had a reasonable MLB pedigree, and I thought he'd be a better bet to hold down the fort for a few weeks until Pujols returned. LB argued that Duncan might have some upside that was worth exploring. He was right in this case.
2. Kyle Lohse. At the time of the deal I thought it was easily defensible, if not exactly inspired. The economics of baseball hadn't yet changed, so $10mn AAV for a 2-3 WAR pitcher seemed reasonable enough. Lohse didn't have much of an injury history, and had displayed the potential to be something better than league-average. Obviously this move was disastrous.
3. Mark DeRosa. I never thought too much of Jess Todd, so that didn't bother me. I liked Perez, but I thought we had enough good arms to sacrifice him. Which was partially true, if DeRosa had actually contributed, but the Cards' bullpen hasn't been strong enough since that trade and DeRosa didn't contribute. Injuries were part of his ineffectiveness, but still a bad trade.
4. Khalil Greene. I thought this was all-upside. Nope. Gregerson has turned out to be a useful player, while Greene... wasn't. Perez + Gregerson = 12 cost-controlled years of valuable relief for essentially nothing.
5. Scott Rolen. I was pleased with the trade for Glaus, and for awhile it certainly seemed like the Cards were getting the best of it. Nope. Other than the first 3 or 4 months of 2008 we've gotten nothing from Glaus, while Rolen has continued to be a reliable player. Perhaps he couldn't co-exist with TLR, but in that case it's worth asking who is more valuable: a GG, AS position player, or an acerbic field manager who picks fights with his best players?
6. The front office. I know that Mo wasn't DeWitt's top choice, but Antonetti didn't want to come here. I thought Mo was a reasonable choice: someone who could work with LaDunc and Luhnow, bridging the gap between the two. It hasn't turned out that way. Mo is too trusting of field management, and his personnel decisions reflect that. Which leads me to...
7. The belief that LaDunc's usefulness with players is a *good* thing. This may seem strange at first, but hear me out. I believe that TLR gets more out of his position players than other managers, in general. I also believe that Duncan is very good at getting the best out of mediocre pitchers. However, I think that those beliefs have given Mo (and others) a false sense of security, thinking that assembling a roster with lots of mediocre talent is good enough, b/c LaDunc will get the most out of it. Paradoxically, if Mo had *less* trust in LaDunc, he might expend more effort or dollars on building a better, deeper roster. When the Cards have suffered in recent years it's been because of a lack of depth. If Mo didn't believe that LaDunc could work miracles with sub-par talent, he might have done more to shore up squad depth so that the team isn't brutally exposed whenever Skip Schumaker stopped slapping singles to left, or when Rasmus or Freese or Penny goes on the DL. This could come from promoting from within (cough... T. Greene... cough) or without. But it's not healthy for a GM to think "Well, if someone gets hurt I can just grab some DFA and LaDunc will fix them".
Those are some things I think I got wrong. What are yours?
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Where is Howard Cosell when you need him?
“I’ve never been wrong in my life. I thought I was wrong once, back in 1947, but it turns out, however, that I was merely mistaken.”
I like your post!
Baseball is only a game. And the Grand Canyon is only a hole.
rec
awesome post… I didn’t really have an opinion as per #1 at the time
but I was also wrong on the other ones. although it’s hard to say you’re wrong when someone that had no injury history all the sudden gets a lot of injuries. same with Derosa to some extent. but yeah, that didn’t work out at all really.
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 3, 2010 6:07 PM EDT reply actions
damn good topic
although i fell on the opposite camp on many of your unpopular fan-decisions (and even got flamed for protesting the khalil greene trade), this is still a great exercise one should employ when frustrated with the decision makers for our beloved birds.
here are mine:
- i thought the trade for holliday was necessary (but the fa signing was ridiculous…i know, i know, “no disclaimers”. just saying)
- i was excited about mark mulder after trading for him. it feels so good to finally get this one off my chest.
- first off, are these admissions safe? you sure? no angry mobs booking flights to seattle to hang me by my underwear from the arches of qwest field? okay good… i don’t think the miles pickup was a bad move. * ducks *
- i didn’t think schu would survive a month at second, let alone two seasons.
- i thought felipe lopez was all-star potential when we signed him
- i thought 2006 was the last healthy season we were gonna get out of carp (shame on me)
- i don’t want to see larussa go.
i think now would be a great time to tell everyone that i’m moving to ohio and my initials are g.d.m. great post, kindred. keep em coming.
"on gameday it says duke loves to face the four seamer and hates to face the four seamer" -VolsnCards5
"perhaps it's a computer joke about the duality of man." -tom s.
by Tudor's Electric Fan on Sep 3, 2010 9:04 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
maybe you should say your GDM's evil twin
All I've got is a broken heart, memories & dreams that I can't drink away
Mooa maxima culpa?
StanTheManFan
Contributes any way he can.
He's normally a nuclear physicist
Except when writing for this list.
by StanTheManFan on Sep 8, 2010 8:02 PM EDT up reply actions
I agreed with #3 and #4
I was way wrong there too. #7 is a very interesting point of view. Not sure if I agree, agree partially, or disagree, but it’s something to think about. Mo definitely seems to defer to the on-field staff and that theory could help explain why. With #5, I think we were all grading on a curve. Going in, given the public feud, I baked into the cake that Mo would get 50 cents on the dollar. I thought he did well at the time, given the circumstances, and I’m not sure I’m ready to budge off of that.
I gave no shot at Schumaker playing 2nd. I gave no shot at Looper being a serviceable starter. They both exceeded my expectations, and it’s safe to say I was wrong there. Franklin has hung in there much better than I ever expected he would so I think it’s safe to say on the whole I’m wrong there too.
one I can think of
was my belief that LaRue (whom I like, personally, a lot) would be good enough, or, better said, that Tony would PLAY him enough, to give Yadi the proper rest he needs.
The MAIN one I have trouble couching as MY mistake, but I kept my mouth too shut when we signed Lopez again. I cowtowed to the mostly "yea"s on here, when I KNEW he was field poison, dugout poison, and even off the field poison.
My awful-feel year hit a climax when Freese got hurt.
How has Lopez been a dugout and off the field poison this year?
The worst thing he can be accused of is providing shaky defense and disappointing offense… for less than 2 million dollars.
Fire Tony La Russa
ya i haven't heard anything about him being a prob in the clubhouse either
and you all know i’ve been listening. overexposure & injuries are probably the only reasons why he’s not lived up to his projections
All I've got is a broken heart, memories & dreams that I can't drink away
yeah I think all the nagging injuries have made him hit worse this year
couple that with some good old fashioned regression. and we knew what we were getting into with his defense… he just needs to hit really well to make up for this and that didn’t pan out
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 5, 2010 2:20 AM EDT up reply actions
good idea kindred, nice to hear from you again
i agree i was wrong about MO as well. i never thought he’d turn in to Walt V 2.0
was also wrong about KBot. i wonder if he’s getting the help he needs right now? i have’t heard anything about him since he told the Rangers he wasn’t coming to spring training
i think we should all consider it a push right now with the Glaus/Rolen trade. Glaus was good in 08 while Rolen was not good again till he came back to the NL. he still has shoulder problems & he’s even said it himself if he wasn’t playing in that bandbox he wouldn’t be putting up half the numbers he is now
i can’t think of anything else i’ve been wrong about w/ the Cards but if i do i’ll add it
All I've got is a broken heart, memories & dreams that I can't drink away
You hit the nail on the head with this statement
“it’s not healthy for a GM to think “Well, if someone gets hurt I can just grab some DFA and LaDunc will fix them”.
This has been one of the major problems the Cards have had for several years now. This season might be the worst with this.
Boy a frosty cold Budweiser would be great about now"…long pause…then an "aahhh". --Mike Shannon
worse loss?
Chris Perez or Ludwick?
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 7, 2010 6:43 PM EDT reply actions
I'd say Perez...
… but not because he’s a better player. Because he’s so much cheaper for so much longer, and because of the strengths and weaknesses of the organization. We have in-house options that can probably come close to replacing Ludwick’s production for practically nothing (Jay’s done it by himself so far), with more in the pipeline. Perez would knock Hawksworth out of the pen and, potentially, Franklin out of the 9th inning. While mediocre RP is one of the most fungible positions on any team, Perez-type relievers aren’t.
But most importantly, we’d save $7+mn by keeping Perez over Luddy, which would cover a big part of Pujols’ raise for a season or two.
I totally agree
but I was mainly thinking about how worthless Derosa ended up being and how good Perez is doing this season (although the peripherals aren’t nearly as good as his ERA, he’s actually a closer that I’d like to have over Franklin).
you’re right about Luddy, he was expendable I think (even though he was a personal favorite player of mine, but I also see more possible injuries, that sub .800 OPS, and him making more money than we can handle).
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 7, 2010 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Perez has been getting really lucky
3.72 FIP, 4.46 xFIP – He has a 31% GB rate so he’s a flyball pitcher who hasn’t given up many homers – that’s not going to stay…..
Ryan Franklin has a 3.92 FIP and a 4.28 xFIP, but he’s a groundball pitcher (43.2%) and the past three years he has a HR/FB rate of 10 or less and has beaten his FIP every time….
also Perez has been pitching in save situations that aren’t as important as Cardinals ones since he’s not in a pennant race…
now, that’s just this season… Perez at minimum over Franklin at 4 million (or whatever it is).. give me that now
sorry, I'd take Perez over Franklin any day
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 7, 2010 11:41 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd say it's about a push at this point
I don’t think Perez’s walk rate is ever likely to drop below 4ish in the majors, and you really have to strike out a LOT of batters to be a high-end reliever doing that when you’re a flyball guy.
His best-case scenario at this point is, I think, Octavio Dotel. A three true outcome pitcher who can be effective but is prone to blow-ups. And he probably either has to strike out more or walk a few less to reach that.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 8, 2010 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I just hope Frankie is a set up guy next season and not the closer
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 8, 2010 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions
i wouldn't mind seeing Motte close
but i can’t really think of anyone else unless we go on the free agent market….
that is what I a advocating
signing at least one of Scott Downs, Rafael Soriano, Arthur Rhodes, etc. imo the relievers are the best value on the free agent market this offseason. heck even Mariano Rivera is available… hopefully the other relievers will be judged against his value and he drives down the market. then again the Yanks will probably re-sign him right away.
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 8, 2010 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions
not sure about rhodes
Downs isn’t really a closer last i checked… i’ll take soriano… problem with all is price and im not exactly jumping for joy paying two relievers 10+ million…
by stlcardsfan4 on Sep 9, 2010 12:54 AM EDT up reply actions
can't do it...
… the Cards’ bullpens will have to be super-cheap if we keep Pujols. basically, it should be a bunch of kids duking it out for opportunities. we should almost never spend more than $2mn for a reliever give our payroll constraints.
not really saying we need a closer
just want one of those guys in the good relief pitching free agent crop. I don’t see any good 2Bs unless we go after O-Dog but we will probably have to overpay for an aging veteran there is my guess.
I know people here say that we need to save money on relievers but I see an opportunity to sign someone to stabilize the ’pen. look at the Padres, or conversely, look at the Cubs, to see how valuable bullpens are.
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 9, 2010 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Look at the Padres
to see how valuable cost-controlled, young, talented bullpen options can be to a team trying to win without a lot of money to spend. And consider that we have Salas, Sanchez, and Boggs in that potential bracket.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 11, 2010 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions
is it that much to ask to just sign one more guy for the bullpen
or do you think those options will be high salary?
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 13, 2010 1:12 AM EDT up reply actions
Downs is pretty effective
but i think any gains on the right-hand side would be marginal, without spending a lot of money. Ideally we need a good lefty, but unfortunately there’s not many of them about. Shouse? Rhodes (though I doubt he’d leave Cincinatti instead of retiring)? It’s slim pickings.
For my money, Brian Shouse is a good bounceback candidate. A 4.50 ERA and an ugly HR rate in Tampa this year, but he’s put up consistently good xFIPs for a long time now, including this year, and has excellent control. Hard to see him costing more than $1m or so.
Ultimately I’d get a cheap lefty (like Shouse), probably pick up Miller’s option (though I have my reservations about that) and roll with the internal candidates. We need all the money we can scrape together to get either a 2B who can hit or a 3B.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 11, 2010 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Interesting idea
but don’t think you (or Mo) got things wrong in most cases.
Greene left the majors with a career ending mental illness
Lohse appears to be permanently damaged from a freak injury
Rolen appeared to be finished with a career ending injury
DeRosa appears to have suffered a career ending wrist injury
Seems more to me that Mo has suffered from some bad luck. I agree that front office puts too much faith in LaDunc
Just win
+1
The original list resembles mine, but I disagree strongly about Mo, for exactly Duke’s reasons; almost all of these remain 100% defensible trades, although I didn’t like the DeRosa pickup. On balance I think he’s done a terrific job under difficult conditions.
I’d add one thing. While I was never high on the decision to draft Kozma, I was also not convinced that it would have been better to take The Detroit Pitcher Who Must Not Be Named, on the grounds that TDPWMNBN would have an unacceptably bumpy and expensive road on the way to the majors. He … hasn’t. And hoo boy, would he have been useful at times this year.
StanTheManFan
Contributes any way he can.
He's normally a nuclear physicist
Except when writing for this list.
by StanTheManFan on Sep 8, 2010 8:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Rick Porcello has been pretty mediocre so far
they’ve had to rush him to the majors due to the contract they signed him to, and he really hasn’t developed to anything like his potential because of this. I think he could be good going forward but he’s really been no great shakes so far, and starts to get slightly more expensive for a cost-controlled guy soon.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 11, 2010 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Yep.
If getting porcello meant signing that stupid contract to get him, then most of the added benefit of porcello over kozma is already wasted.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
so you're saying we can pick him up off the DFA pile in a few years & he'll be Carp v2.0?
All I've got is a broken heart, memories & dreams that I can't drink away
I think we can mark that down as a given.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
this is why I haven't thrown the Moz under the bus yet
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 8, 2010 8:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I get that...
… I really do, but Greene’s mental illness was known in baseball circles before the trade. Lohse’s injury was a freak accident, but the Cards were only exposed b/c they signed him for 4 years (probably unnecessarily). Rolen’s injury was never career-ending, it was career-debilitating. He’ll never be 2004-Rolen again, but he’s still a very good player. DeRosa is the biggest freak of all of them, but Mo still traded several valuable young prospects for a league-averageish rental.
Some of it has been bad luck, some of it has been a failure to do due diligence, some of it has been over-optimism, and some of it has been over-pessimism. Either way, Mo missed all of them, and those are pretty much the biggest moves of his career except for Holliday. And the jury is still out on that one.
Mo ain’t Ed Wade bad, but he ain’t Theo Epstein good, either.
Sometimes the best trades
are the trades not made. Mo also resisted press pressures to sacrifice Shelby Miller for Roy Oswalt. He also “failed” to make a number of moves over the winter that, in hindsight, would have been bad for the team. I continue to like the job he’s done overall.
StanTheManFan
Contributes any way he can.
He's normally a nuclear physicist
Except when writing for this list.
by StanTheManFan on Sep 9, 2010 8:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Mo also resisted trading for Ohman when the Braves would have fleeced us
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 9, 2010 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
you don't get credit for not being an idiot...
… as in miller/oswalt. as i said, he ain’t Ed Wade bad.
Miller for Oswalt would've made me physically sick....
Miller for Oswalt and the Astros pay all the remainder of Oswalt’s deal wouldn’t have been quite so bad.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 11, 2010 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think the Rolen trade was that bad
Money-wise, it was pretty much neutral. Glaus put up one star-level year (2008, 5+ WAR) and one nothing year, Rolen put up two pretty good years (2008 and 2009, both 3+ WAR).
It was also a trade he HAD to make because his field manager had totally fallen out with the player. I actually think it can be classed as an excellent trade because everyone in baseball knew the Cards HAD to dump Rolen, so to get an equivalent player was quite a coup.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 11, 2010 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Agree that it was probably making the best of a bad situation...
… But we’ve had major problems at 3B since 2008, while Rolen has been productive. I’m just saying that it didn’t work out. He’d have done better just giving Rolen away in a salary dump, although that might not have been possible.
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