Projections and Outcomes
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 28, 2010 9:45 PM EDT
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PrintThe end of the season is upon us, and the postseason hopes have been officially dashed. So how about those projections from the beginning of the season? Seems like the most interesting thing to talk about presently. For anyone new to the site or inexperienced in sabermetric stat analysis, I will provide a short glossary and some links.
At the beginning of the season I averaged together all the pitching rate stat projections scaled to ERA readily available at fangraphs.com. I think the ones available were ZiPS, CHONE, Marcel, and Fans. Anyways, let's see how averaging these projections together worked out for just a few players analyzed:
(current FIP/preseason median projection)
- Carpenter 3.74/3.29
- Wainwright 2.87/3.4
- Lohse 4.48/4.37
- Garcia 3.43/4.66
- Halladay 3.02/3.17
- Hamels 3.70/3.77
- Blanton 4.34/4.20
- Happ 4.12/4.49
- Moyer 4.99/4.94
What's funny is that I was comparing the Cardinals to the Phillies before the season started. One team overcame adversity, the other crumbled.
Over half the 7 pitchers listed outperformed projections, only a few did not (Lohse had midseason surgery, and Moyer didn't pitch that much either. And Carp's projection was probably a bit too optimistic overall. But he still had a great season.) I think this further illustrates the amazing achievement Garcia had for a rookie season (any other year and he'd probably be ROtY).
What stands out most are the seasons Wainwright and Halladay are having! Waino has outperformed his projection by .53, and Halladay's by .15. Very impressive especially for Wagonmaker.
Speaking of outperforming projections, I also did a segment about comparing the best case scenario projection (or cherry picking a best projection for a player from the available projection services). Here I used FIP as well as pitcher's WAR as one of the stats:
- Hudson........... 4.03 so far (3.74 projected FIP by CHONE) 2.8 in 215.2 innings | 3.4 WAR
- Lowe................ 4.01 so far (3.72 proj FIP by Fans) 2.5 in 188 innings | 3.9 WAR
- Hanson............ 3.36 so far (3.34 proj FIP by Fans) 4.2 in 197.2 innings | 4.6 WAR
Moving right along, some hitting projections, and the outcomes for the Cardinals lineup (cradtastic)
So next time someone says that Rasmus is not performing up to expectations, you have full right to slap them upside the head. Keep in mind that these are averaged projections, not best case. It's pretty amazing that Brendan Ryan has almost 1 WAR while putting up a weighted on-base average of .254. Yeesh. Actually everyone but Holliday and Rasmus did not live up to expectations. Ludwick actually matched his WAR projection, but mainly because he all the sudden became a premium defensive RF'r. Holliday did the same except he also outperformed his hitting projections. Final conclusion is that Schumaker is a replacement level player at second base. Now, here is how the Phillies hit this year compared to their projections.
Jayson Werth was, ahem, well worth his contract this season. And that's probably an understatement. He seems sort of comparable to Holliday. Looks like we are paying Matt a lot to get better at defense! hahahah
Anyways, Carlos Ruiz is the shining star of this offense. Sort of their anti-Yadi. Look at how far he overperforms projections! Looking at the projections makes it look like the Phillies won the NL East because no one else wanted it. Speaking of, what did the Braves do?
uh, ok! I guess they do have Jason Heyward at .377 wOBA and 4.4 WAR. Now how about the Reds:
As you can see, this is why they won the division. Except for Jay Bruce who continues to not meet expectations, an aging Orlando Cabrera, and Drew Stubbs, who only slightly underperformed, the team did quite well at offense. Votto shattered projections at .442 wOBA, better than even the mang himself. Scott Rolen also was an amazing surprise for a Reds fan. It's as if he never got injured (another of the many not-fair moments for a Cards fan in '10).
It's also notable to mention that the Reds are tied with the Tigers in team BABIP at .313, the best in the major leagues. Votto is at an absurdly high .361 BABIP for the season. For comparison the Cardinals were a much more normal .297 (almost in the bottom third of teams), while Pujols' BABIP matches the Cardinals' .297. I think the only conclusion you can pull for the season is that it was a very unexpected season. The Cardinals somehow ended up with some of the worst players in the major leagues on their roster for a significant part of the season.
The sum of Aaron Miles, Nick Stavinoha, Jeff Suppan, Randy Winn, Skip Schumaker, Mike MacDougal, etc all add up to garbage island, or in sabermetric terms, negative WAR. That's right, only shining superstar Aaron Miles was worth much at .2 (grit! to adust for grit factor, simply add .2 WAR). Just for fun, Kyle Lohse was worth .6 WAR this season.
2010: A Really Mindbendlingly Messed Up Odyssey
Finally, Here's the SABR glossary and links list:
FIP means fielding independent pitching. a number of environmental elements are factored to correct for statistical distortion or anomaly, such as putting a league average defense behind a pitcher and correcting for league, ballpark, etc. please add to the definition in the comments if you will
If you are still thinking, hey, that sounds like a bunch of hogwash, here's one of many articles that explain why ERA is not all that great of a stat: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-most-convoluted-statistic-era/
WAR means Wins Above a Replacement level player. Genius mathematicians have figured out what a league average player is. Then if you are really good at both defense and offense, you will be worth about 6 or 7 Skip Schumakers (sorry, 2010 Skip Schumakers, not 2009 ones).
Some are only valuable for defense. Others, defense is a big liability (think Brendan Ryan vs Adam Dunn... one shouldn't be fielding, and one shouldn't be hitting). The main drawback about WAR is that the defensive component of the stat is not entirely accurate. Yet. Looking forward to new metrics!
wOBA means weighted On-Base Average. linear weights (more mathemagic at work) and park factors, etc are applied to key offensive stats such as on base percentage, slugging.... Basically, wOBA is a more accurate version of On Base Plus Slugging % (OPS).
Here are some links
this article describes why on-base percentage is more quotable than batting average
http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/2105763/batting_average_vs_onbase_percentage.html
Here is a baseball stat glossary
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/statpages/glossary/
more on wOBA
http://www.insidethebook.com/woba.shtml
and the ever useful http://www.fangraphs.com and http://www.baseball-reference.com
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Awesome stuff Chitown
This really does a good job of summing up a wild and crazy (and also bitterly disappointing) year. It’s not as if we should ever expect the projections to just run their course and tell us what happens before it happens. However, they are a decent idea of what to expect. And this year we got a really topsy-turvy mix of the unexpected. Pretty much everything went right for the Reds, and a whole lot went wrong for us. We really should have been closer to them despite that, but we were hell bent on giving as much playing time to terrible players as much as we possibly could to drag us down to the point where we just couldn’t do it anymore.
I am really suprised to see that decent FIP from Lohse. Also, I wonder what Suppan’s comparison would look like since he pitched a pretty significant amount of innings for us this year.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
yeah
the projections give you a nice idea of what to expect, or a ballpark if you will. they are by no means what IS going to happen. too many players will have break out seasons, and many will not live up to expectations. and then there’s the injury thing.
I just think it’s important to remember the difference between all the stats, and how they are useful. sometimes projections get brandished about as if they are the law. and sometimes traditional stats should not be totally discounted, it all depends on context and what is being discussed.
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 29, 2010 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah
And in addition to people putting too much faith in projections sometimes, there are also plenty of critics who pretend that anybody using projections is committing the same sin. The creators of projections don’t believe they are anywhere near infallible, but annoying TV types act as if they do.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
yeah
ignoring projections is just dumb, especially in the early season and even preseason. I’m not sure why people would dismiss projections and use the stats from the previous season when talking about performance going forward. I was just about as guilty of that as anyone a few years ago. but on the other hand, I feel that some people use projections and don’t think critically about them sometimes. it’s good to use a stat or projection, but also to use it with your own assumptions and subjective analysis. you could quote a projection but then easily disagree with it using observation, etc etc etc
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 29, 2010 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Well said!
I just think it’s important to remember the difference between all the stats, and how they are useful. sometimes projections get brandished about as if they are the law. and sometimes traditional stats should not be totally discounted, it all depends on context and what is being discussed.
I think that can be said about a lot of stats. They can be useful, to be sure, but to put 100% stock in any of them seems to be unrealistic sometimes. They’re great as a guide or a yardstick but in the end they just don’t include everything. The human element and luck can distort any stat.
Baseball is only a game. And the Grand Canyon is only a hole.
by Dave Pendleton on Oct 1, 2010 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Agreed, great job
Looking at those Cardinal wOBAs and a lot of the Phillies’ superstars, it reminded me that offense league-wide is down this year compared to previous years. I guess there’s no point in re-forecasting pre-season wOBAs for comparative sake since we have actual 2010 data to use. Anyway, the fact that Holliday and especially Rasmus have outperformed the projections is even more impressive considering the decline in offensive production across the board this year.
Damn it, I can’t believe we didn’t win the division this year.
Adios Esposito.
Adios Sarge. Say a prayer for Surf Boy...wherever he is.
defense in war
Holliday hit as expected but his defense pulled his war up, rasmus hit way better than expected but his defense pulled his war down to the projection. I havn’t got to watch as many games as i wished this year, but from my eye test rasmus defense has seemed very good. Last year his uzr/150 was 14 this year it is -7. Is his true talent somewhere in the middle as a slightly above average CF?
by I miss Jack Buck on Sep 29, 2010 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
too many others underperforming, and the Reds rocking a ridiculous BABIP
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 29, 2010 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I guess I have to believe it
The “Stars and Scrubs” approach to roster-building seems to be one that works, but when we have bad luck with BABIP with nearly all of our Scrubs, and the Reds have good luck with their Stars and Scrubs, we’re screwed.
Adios Esposito.
Adios Sarge. Say a prayer for Surf Boy...wherever he is.
yeah, not much you can do about that
and then lose two of your starting pitchers, and your 3rd baseman, doesn’t add up to success usually
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 29, 2010 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't have a problem with Stars and Scrubs really
But I believe when you take that approach, you better cast with a wide net. Tony Womack was most definitely a scrub. We went into that season having no idea who would be playing second, so we picked up Womack, Marlon Anderson, and Spivey and had them compete. If forced to say any one of them were up to the task, I think any rational person would have projected no to any of them. But the question is much different if you ask if one of the 3 could handle it. Then it becomes somewhere in the range of maybe to probably.
Womack won, and then Anderson was part of a daily competition between an old Lankford, Cedeno, Mabry, Taguchi rotation for “scrub” OF AB’s. John Gall is a prototypical AAAA player. He hit the ball well in AAA for 7 years. He couldn’t get a sniff. Nick Stavinoha is a homeless man’s John Gall, yet there he was getting meaningful AB’s this year.
We didn’t follow anything close to that winning model this year. If something didn’t go just as planned with a “scrub” we looked to other teams castoffs rather than anything we had preplanned for internally. If you’re going to play stars and scrubs you need to play it right. There is some strength in numbers, and you better leverage that. We didn’t, and we paid a price for it.
by Merry CRasmus on Sep 29, 2010 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I suppose I didn't really do it justice
After thinking about it more, I suppose I was really thinking only of Schumaker and Ryan. You are most certainly right that the planning for this year was inherently flawed from March onwards (with guys like Stavinoha getting 100 more PAs than he ever should have)
Adios Esposito.
Adios Sarge. Say a prayer for Surf Boy...wherever he is.
A quibble...
…Spivey was actually 2006 and I think the plan was to make him The Guy. He flopped terribly in ST and so it became the Hector Luna/Aaron Miles show, which I so eloquently dubbed Hectron Lumiles at the time.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Oct 4, 2010 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions
Great stuff!
One quibble though:
What’s funny is that I was comparing the Cardinals to the Phillies before the season started. One team overcame adversity, the other crumbled.
I think this should read:
What’s funny is that I was comparing the Cardinals to the Phillies before the season started. One team overcame adversity, the othercrumbledtraded for Roy fucking Oswalt and had their injured players come back and contribute.
Also, paying Ryan Howard $25M to be a 3 – 3.5 WAR player can’t be good for them for the next 5 years.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
If the Phillies
Had lost Blanton (Penny) and Kendrick (Lohse) for all/most of the season and hadn’t traded for Oswalt, while also losing Polanco for the entire second half of the season, I think they’d have struggled to win that division too. All teams have injuries and adversity, but having your injured players come back and be productive and having ZERO injuries to starting pitchers is incredibly lucky in this day and age. Eventually their poor decisions have to catch up with them (trading Lee when they didn’t need to, giving Ibanez and Howard really bad contracts) for which they can’t bail themselves out by trading for an ace like Oswalt at the deadline.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
for sure
agreed, the Cardinals had the worst end of the stick… the Phils injuries were minor compared to the Cards’
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 29, 2010 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions
What if...
they had traded Werth for Oswalt…? See what I did there?
If you see a guy open the car door for his girlfriend, either the car is new or the girlfriend is.
Jason Werth is like 2 times more productive than Ludwick.....
I can see it if you said what if they traded colby or holliday.
yeah, I chuckled about Howard's production, what a waste of money
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 29, 2010 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions
ooh I wasn't thinking specifically about Howard as I was reading through this.
Bad Contract. And sets unrealistic expectation for Pujols. So that’s a bad contract for the Phillies and the Cardinals.
All you need is love. But a little chocolate now and then doesn't hurt.
Charles M. Schulz
agreed
it’s almost as if they were putting up a middle finger to the Cardinals when they signed him for that much.
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 29, 2010 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions
I think the rest of the league is giving them the finger, not the other way around.
Thanks for overpaying jackasses! Now we have to overpay every first baseman better than Ryan Howard, which is about half the league!!!
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
yeah
they pissed off everyone, including themselves
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 29, 2010 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Howard
I believe his extension kicks in for the 2012 season, right? So, Howard will make $20MM in 2012 and 2013. THEN, he will make $25MM from 2014 through 2016. Terrible…
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Phillies really Soriano'd themselves
Adios Esposito.
Adios Sarge. Say a prayer for Surf Boy...wherever he is.
nice
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 29, 2010 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Two words
Fuckin’. Wow.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Oct 4, 2010 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions
another point
$23 million for 2017 with a $10 fucking million buyout
how stupid are the Phillies
by stlcardsfan4 on Oct 4, 2010 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions
I have to call you out on cherrypicking your stats, though...
It appears that you’re using a mix of projections by Bill James, ZiPs, Fans, CHONE, and Marcel, and selecting whichever projection fits your argument best.
"Don't turn off the TV if we've still got bats in our hands." - Dusty Baker
He explicitly says he picked the best projection,
which needless to say is not the same as picking the one that fits his argument best.
by BTown Birds fan on Sep 29, 2010 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Except, of course, when he explicitly states his cherrypicking intentions right in the post:
Speaking of outperforming projections, I also did a segment about comparing the best case scenario projection (or cherry picking a best projection for a player from the available projection services). Here I used FIP as well as pitcher’s WAR as one of the stats:
Emphasis mine.
Reading is fundamental if you’re going to call someone out on something.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
yeah
he must have felt that I was singling out the Reds, but I used this methodology for all the underdog teams.
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 29, 2010 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions
uh
I was using best case scenario in some circumstances, and I was using an average of all the projections together in other cases.
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 29, 2010 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions
next year I am just going to average them all together and be less confusing
maybe make a second post about best case projections
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 29, 2010 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I think it would be cool to do it as a range, giving the high and the low projections
Then you could see whether they were in the range or over or underachieved what even the most optimistic or pessimistic projections are.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
yeah
that’s a good idea… I’ll present all the projections and then add in an average since I’m into seeing that too. it’s just a little more work though ;)
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 29, 2010 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Just a suggestion
I know it’s a lot of work, or I’d be able to do it myself, lol.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
yeah, I will
I will have plenty of time off from baseball to think about it hah!
"I'm not aware of what I'm doing. It's only after a get acquainted period that I see what I've been about. I've no fears about making changes for the painting has a life of its own." -Jackson Pollock
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 30, 2010 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions
...
/flame
Chris Carpenter for Manager
"He’s in his own world out there. He says he doesn’t cuss. I disagree." - Skip Schumaker, on Jason Motte
now this is what i'm talking about
great stuff. i especially love cold hard evidence that the cards’ offense sucked out loud and underperformed when compared to preseason expectations. next, i’d like to see a “scapegoats with a higher WAR than skip schumaker this season” post – but given the hit to one’s popularity one would take after posting, it may not happen. oh well.
i’ll gladly add a rec to the rec parade. great stuff, chitown.
"on gameday it says duke loves to face the four seamer and hates to face the four seamer" -VolsnCards5
"perhaps it's a computer joke about the duality of man." -tom s.
by Tudor's Electric Fan on Sep 29, 2010 7:42 PM EDT reply actions
thanks!
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 29, 2010 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Nice post
Sometimes when a team has players that miss their projections by a wide mark, the decline can be attributed to age. In the Cardinals case, the underperformers aren’t particularly old. Not making any conclusions with that, just think it’s interesting. Going to be some interesting arguments/discussions as to whether we should or shouldn’t expect bounceback seasons from some of these guys.
one could go the statistical regression route, or claim the team needs all new manager/coaching
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 29, 2010 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think they are
there are some different versions that probably are though, plenty more esoteric stats out there
"I'm not aware of what I'm doing. It's only after a get acquainted period that I see what I've been about. I've no fears about making changes for the painting has a life of its own." -Jackson Pollock
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 30, 2010 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Statcorner might have something like that
They have forms of wOBA that are adjusted for home park and batted ball stuff, but I don’t know if the WAR on their batter pages use that.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
It would be interesting....
to then adjust the projections based on this years BABIP to see if that makes them any more accurate.
yeah but the projections are trying to hit actual outcomes, not BABIP adjusted ones
but yeah, they would probably prove to me more accurate in that case
"I'm not aware of what I'm doing. It's only after a get acquainted period that I see what I've been about. I've no fears about making changes for the painting has a life of its own." -Jackson Pollock
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 30, 2010 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions
sure
but projections can’t account for babip if it is indeed ‘luck’ or chance. Just curious to see if the projections are in fact better, on average, once that aspect of ‘noise’ is removed.
getting into grey areas here
"I'm not aware of what I'm doing. It's only after a get acquainted period that I see what I've been about. I've no fears about making changes for the painting has a life of its own." -Jackson Pollock
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 30, 2010 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions
TWAKS
(that’s what ashton kutcher said)
"on gameday it says duke loves to face the four seamer and hates to face the four seamer" -VolsnCards5
"perhaps it's a computer joke about the duality of man." -tom s.
by Tudor's Electric Fan on Sep 30, 2010 9:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Define what proportion of BABIP is "noise" though...
It’s going to change relative to the hitter, as certain hitters will reach more on balls in play due to their talent and skill set.
For instance, Ichiro’s career BABIP is around .350, so do you normalize him back to league average when he’s clearly doing something to be consistently better than league average, like beating out a lot of infield hits? Same for Joey Votto — he’s always had a BABIP above .340.
Also, BABIP doesn’t tell you much of anything without also looking at data on the balls that were put into play by that player. If the player has a BABIP of .370 and also a line drive percentage that is 8-9 points higher than his career average, than it’s likely that his BABIP is unsustainable. A good example of this would be Ryan Ludwick’s monster 2008 season.
Even league wide these things change. BABIP was higher the last decade than it was in any other 10 year period in the modern era, as Joe Posnanski points out in this excellent blog post.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
by fourstick on Oct 1, 2010 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
BABIP takes a long time to mean something, even for hitters
If you wanted to project Ichiro going forward you would still regress his BABIP a bit towards league average, and since Votto only has a few seasons, you would regress his probably half way to league average.
nice point on the speed thing
part of the reason jay’s babip was so high imo. not sure what it is now though.
I had no idea Votto has been always over .340, holy shit. line drive specialist
"I'm not aware of what I'm doing. It's only after a get acquainted period that I see what I've been about. I've no fears about making changes for the painting has a life of its own." -Jackson Pollock
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 1, 2010 7:27 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
when people argue that BABIP is relative to luck, ichiro always pops in my head like the embodiment of my baseball conscience. his BABIP in particular is attributable to his tremendous skill with the bat, not dumb luck. the possibility that his approach can be replicated pokes too many holes in the BABIP discussion for me to give it too much merit.
"on gameday it says duke loves to face the four seamer and hates to face the four seamer" -VolsnCards5
"perhaps it's a computer joke about the duality of man." -tom s.
by Tudor's Electric Fan on Oct 2, 2010 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions
The point is that you can't tell what a players BABIP should be like even after multiple seasons
If Ichiro put up a .300 BABIP next year would you say that he had a decline in his skill or got unlucky? BABIP has way to much variance around it even over 4-5 years for it to be taken at face value.
Nobody is arguing Votto will not have an above average BABIP going foward – it will most likely not be near where it’s been so far.
would klohse have been worth more
if he played less?
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
...to DFA TLR
that makes zero sense since all of his value is IP at this point
by stlcardsfan4 on Oct 12, 2010 5:19 AM EDT up reply actions
A player would have to have negative WAR to be worth more by playing less, right?
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
yes
or have a FIP around 5 or maybe even more. Lohse ain’t that bad
"I'm not aware of what I'm doing. It's only after a get acquainted period that I see what I've been about. I've no fears about making changes for the painting has a life of its own." -Jackson Pollock
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 12, 2010 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions
in a word
No
"I'm not aware of what I'm doing. It's only after a get acquainted period that I see what I've been about. I've no fears about making changes for the painting has a life of its own." -Jackson Pollock
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 12, 2010 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions
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