Chris Carpenter and 2011 and Albert Pujols and 2012
by DanUpBaby on Sep 21, 2010 6:00 AM EDT
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PrintI particularly enjoyed my own gamethread doggerel, if I do say so myself, but that aside I think it's safe to go on with the rest of our lives pretending that the Cardinals never made up that game with the Marlins and, refreshed, spent the day seeing the sights in Pittsburgh. I hear they have a beautiful ballpark. (I realize that this thought process might cause Mark Hamilton's new Baseball-Reference page to vanish forever, or else become haunted by its lost plate appearance, and I am willing to take this risk.)
So Chris Carpenter, who didn't pitch yesterday—it seems as good a time as any to talk about him, since the Cardinals owe him $15 million next year. For Carpenter as he relates to fans the 2010 season has seemed strangely valedictory—between Wainwright's emergence as a clear ace and Jaime Garcia's surprisingly low ERA Carpenter, who benefited last year from an extraordinarily low home run rate and his own gaudy ERA, has been shuffled prematurely into the back of the deck as a kind of ace emeritus.
He's been less dominant than he has in years past; at 3.05 his K:BB rate is its lowest since he joined the Cardinals, and this will likely be the first time in his St. Louis career that he fails to fall in the top ten in the National League in that category. His strikeouts are basically steady with 2009, leaving post-surgery Carpenter hovering around a half a strikeout below post-first-surgeries Carpenter. And since he's actually allowing home runs again—though not any more than he did in his original peak—that's going to show up in his ERA.
But he's made 33 starts (although I only remember 32...) He's now pitched the second-most innings of his Major League career, which began when the all-time home run record was 61. His ERA is 3.28. Against all odds the Cardinals are in a position to at least finish out the horrendous contract they gave him on an extremely high note. They'll be paying too much for the wins he has to offer at this point in his career, but at least they'll be paying him for wins. In 2008 I'm not sure I would have guessed that.
In most cases Carpenter's contract coming off the books would be cause for fanbase celebration, because it really is a perfect situation; as things look right now Carpenter has a good chance of pitching at least well enough to make us look the other way every time we get on Cot's to complain about the Kyle Lohse deal, and then at the end of the year the money comes back into the payroll and the Cardinals get themselves a newer, younger Chris Carpenter.
In the Cardinals' case, of course, Carpenter's contract comes off the books and we wonder if those $15 million plus the $16 million Albert Pujols will be making in 2011 is enough to sign one 32 year-old superstar first baseman who has a chance to break a lot of records. So what should be a Supermarket Sweep-styled race through the first-and-a-half-tier free agents of 2012 is instead an existential crisis re: the entire 21st-century Cardinals identity. Which sucks.
So maybe 2011 is something else entirely. That team will, for the price of one 2012 Albert Pujols, play a slightly younger version of Albert Pujols and a pitcher who, the year before, finished third-ish in the National League in innings pitched with an ERA+ around 120.
I don't want to say that the Cardinals need to rethink signing Albert Pujols if they can't win in 2011, because this team and its fanbase just don't have the will to pull a full-Brach-Rickey and lose him a few years too early instead of a few years too late. I know I'm not ready to deal with that. But if they can't win in 2011, they need to rethink what their plan is upon signing Albert Pujols.
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Trading Albert
Would this be such a bad thing?
There is always the risk that a new Albert contract could backfire horribly.
Let’s say we could do a deal that would being us a boatload of major league ready, cost controlled talent.
Add that to the 30 million we wouldn’t have to pay him each year and could be used to improve the team.
Obviously payroll would have to be reduced without Albert putting bums on seats, but wouldn’t the team be a much more well rounded and less streaky team with less of a stars and scrubs approach?
I also don’t see a place for Aaron Miles or Pedro Feliz on that kind of team.
I love Albert and he’s a pretty good ball player, but i’m just saying.
Albert's going to be 31 next year
and THIS season he’s barely been worth $25m. Without even taking into account the fact that he’s had a bum shoulder for a few years that will eventually need TJ surgery, AND the fact that he should take a discount for the reassurance of a long-term deal, AND the (albeit slight) risk he has a precipitous fall from grace in his 30s like, say, Frank Thomas did, I’d say he’s probably barely worth $25m/yr, when you consider likely reduction of his abilities as he ages.
Given he’s probably going to want that much, and he MIGHT even want up to $30m, I think I’m probably one of the few people here hoping we don’t sign Albert to a long-term deal, unless he gives us a pretty huge discount. Something like 6 or 7 years at $20-22m might not be too bad, but even that carries significant risk and limited upside, unless he has a Bonds-ian late-30s. A really long, really costly deal could be a serious albatross for this club. I realise we can’t compete every year but paying Pujols and Holliday over $45m in 5 years’ time would essentially mean we’re guaranteed to be a pretty crappy ballclub at that point.
If we’re out of it by the trade deadline next year, I’d happily (well, I suppose more like reluctantly, but knowing it’s a necessity) trade him away if it meant bringing back a top-10 type prospect. I’m increasingly OK with letting the face of the franchise (even perhaps the face of MLB for this generation) walk if we’re not going to get a good deal on Albert as a lifetime Cardinal.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 21, 2010 7:50 AM EDT up reply actions
you bring up very valid points
however none of them have any value in the what-sells-tickets scheme of things and i firmly believe that albert pujols will be paid whatever he wants and everyone in the front office will sign their first-borns over to him if they have to, but he’ll play in st louis until he is too weak to carry the walker he needs to get to first base
..i miss ludriguez-wick..
Thing is...
Are fans going to accept them signing Pujols for $30M per season when ticket prices go up 12%-15% to pay his salary and keep us competitive?
Cardinals tickets are slightly below average in terms of price per ticket league wide right now, while having a payroll that’s above average. Most of the teams above us in payroll have a much higher average ticket cost.
There’s no free lunch — if we sign Albert to a $25M+ contract and want to win baseball games, which I think is much more important, then people have to be willing to pay a little more to go see games too.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
on a side note, I think they could solve a lot of their problems if they loaded up concessions and charged crazy prices
An endless selection of beers (nod to German heritage, why not); and maybe a 70-30 mix for bacon-wrapped.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 21, 2010 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions
I think attendance could stay high with at least some ticket price increase
I’m not sure what kind of increase it would take before fans stopped buying as many tickets, but I think they could probably increase prices a little without a huge change. If they sell it as a necessary part of making the team more competitive I think it could work. The fans would complain a lot but they have remained very loyal. The team would need to keep hammering down the point that they are actually increasing pay roll by a significant amount (no more of this “we’re totally bumping up payroll to 100 million for the nth time” trick.)
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
"Some" being the operative word.
If we increase prices to pay Albert, then you’re going to have to increase them more to pay for the rest of the team to go with Albert. 5-6 really good players and a bunch of no-name has-beens does not a good team make. So where do you stop? It’s the proverbial snoball. Or maybe “shit rolls downhill”. Then again, we’re the people that love to see a winning team.
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 21, 2010 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions
I guess best case scenario
is that our farm keeps up the good work and bears a lot of cheap and good fruit (you know, so we don’t have to go for so much of the low-hanging type). I think the success of the farm to give the team some quality talent for cheap will be the biggest factor. The more it is able to do that, the less money we’ll have to spend on the supporting cast as Albert gets more expensive. Either way they’re probably going to have to raise payroll, because keeping it steady while paying our big guys more will obviously mean that the “scrubs” will be even more scrub-like in the stars and scrubs arrangement.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Very true.
I just don’t like the thought of depending on the farm that much. I guess, if we can get 1-2 good players a year off the farm system we could call it a success. Then you’d have 6-12 cost-controlled players every year. Then you have to hope that they stay good enough to use as trade fodder at the end of that time. a’ la Luddy. That’s probably stretching it though.
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 21, 2010 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions
Hope springs eternal!
Actually, it’s fall now. Hope falls eternal!
Wait, that didn’t come out right at all…
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
That sounds like the Cubs' philosophy.
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 21, 2010 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Damn my eyes!
I am going to have to do some sort of fan penance for this. I apologize to VEB.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
I heard Johnny Cash in my head when I read that.
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 21, 2010 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I feel confident in saying
Albert Pujols’ contract will have little to nothing to do with ticket prices. They charge as much as they think they can to maximize revenue already unless they are absolute morons.
People aren’t going to think “hey, I’m willing to pay higher prices because now they are paying AP 25M instead of 16M last year!”
Not afraid to nitpick
Take a Micro Economics Course
Ticket prices are based on supply and demand. The Cardinals will charge what they can get from you, regardless of whether Albert plays for $30 million or free.
You can't honestly believe that ticket prices have nothing to do with paying players can you?
That’s between 40-50% of the expenses for most teams, while also being one of the few expenses they have near total control over. They can change prices many different ways to boost dollars on the revenue side, but most of the other expenses they have (concessions, staffing, minor league affiliate agreements, bond debt, maintenance, etc.) are pretty much sunk costs and are only going to stay the same or go up every year.
This isn’t simple supply and demand with two lines on the chart — one has a lot to do with the other, and there’s multiple factors that go in to how teams come up with ticket prices.
Raising ticket prices after you’ve just signed two $100M contracts in the two previous off seasons seems like a very good excuse for raising ticket prices, because you can sell it to fans that you’re investing in making the team better. I’m just stating that fans should understand that if the team is ponying up large dollars to keep Albert that those expenses have to be made up somewhere on the other side of the ledger, either by $15 beers or ticket prices going up 5-6% annually every year for the next 4-5 years.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Except the fans don't give a shit
They don’t care. They care about entertainment and couldn’t care less about what the team is paying Albert Pujols. He provides the same entertainment value to a fan when he’s getting paid 16M as he does when he’s getting paid 30M.
Not afraid to nitpick
This is exactly my point
They don’t care about the business aspect of it. They’ve divorced themselves from it, and therefore they shouldn’t have to pay for the salaries of the players even though their ticket money basically DOES pay the salaries of the players.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
i think his point is that fans don't give a shit about what pujols earns
as long as he provides entertainment. most casual fans won’t bring money value into it so they may not be as likely to buy tickets if the price went up because pujols’ salary went up.
follow me on twitter @nickg105, @Rams_Fan_Voice
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 21, 2010 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions
This would be me...
I would understand the team’s justification for raising ticket prices, but that doesn’t affect what I am willing (and can afford) to pay to go to a game.
If you see a guy open the car door for his girlfriend, either the car is new or the girlfriend is.
So why would the fans be willing to pay more for a ticket to a Cardinals game because ownership is paying Pujols more?
The Cards are almost certainly profit maximizing with their ticket prices already, Pujols being paid more won’t affect fan interest and fan interest is the driver of ticket prices.
Not afraid to nitpick
Cardinals fans. they're crazy and stuff.
oh, they just say they’re “dedicated”, but we all know what that means. pies.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
Whatever happens with Pujols
will change the “profit maximizing” climate (mostly applies if he’s gone, but also a big extension to a small degree).
I'm not saying they would. I'm actually saying the opposite.
That they can’t have their cake and eat it too. They can’t bitch about ticket prices going up and in the same breath slam Dewitt and Co. for not re-signing Pujols. It’s a business and businesses are designed to make money. It’s just that fans don’t see it that way. The fan perspective is:
“I should be able to go to a game affordably. Tickets are too expensive and concession prices are out of control, I mean, $9 BEERS!!! $6 Hot Dogs!!!”
“Why can’t that rich bastard of an owner dip into his pockets and sign that player!!!!!! WTF!!!”
You can’t pretend that one has nothing to do with the other.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Yes, I can
If they sign Pujols to a 25M deal, that will actually have absolutely nothing to do with ticket prices.
Joe the Season Ticket Holder does not give a shit whether they pay Pujols 16M or 25M, he will bitch about $6 hot dogs or $10 beers whether they pay Pujols a penny or 100M because that’s how he values a hot dog or a beer, not how he values the plight of poor Bill DeWitt paying Pujols 25M.
Not afraid to nitpick
That doesn't make any sense.
It’s simple accounting — the more they pay players, the more they have to bring in on the revenue side in order to balance the books or make a profit. Period.
You can have whatever opinion you want about ticket prices and player salaries — that’s your choice. But it’s intellectually dishonest to bitch about both, because if you put yourself in the shoes of ownership you’d feel differently.
Joe the Season Ticket Holder is only going to bitch about the concessions prices if he’s still actually holding a season ticket. You can’t tell me that there aren’t people who had season tickets in 1985 that don’t have season tickets now because they simply can no longer afford what the tickets cost. There are those people. My college football team has actually priced me out of my season football tickets because not only do I have to buy the tickets, I have to buy a parking pass, and a membership to the “athletic club” and a whole bunch of other shit I don’t need. The rival team across the state requires you to buy a “seat license” costing $500 or more BEFORE YOU CAN EVEN PURCHASE YOUR TICKETS. Attending sports contests in person has now become a once a year event or something that only the upper middle class can afford without making it their lifestyle. This is true in every sport. I hate the Cubs, but I like the ability to be able to enjoy the AAA I-Cubs for $6 a ticket. I can spend $20, have 2 beers, a burger, and watch a semi-pro game in a great stadium. If I didn’t have family and friends and VEB people that liked to go to Cards games, I don’t know that I’d ever make the trip to Busch. I could see them every year in KC for half the cost.
You can’t make the case that certain fans haven’t been priced out of going to games. The reason you don’t hear about it is that they can catch most of those games on television, and they can still make 1 or 2 games a year when they used to go to 30, and they still sell enough tickets to make money, and the secondary market for tickets has become a huge business thanks to craigslist and stub hub, so you can buy season tickets and then sell them off at a mark up for the games you don’t want to go to.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
so iowa has basically adapted the nfl-style psl bullshit?
follow me on twitter @nickg105, @Rams_Fan_Voice
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 21, 2010 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes
Not for all the seats, but pretty much any seat in the lower bowl at Kinnick (including the endzone seats) now requires a seat license.
We have family friends that didn’t miss a single game from 1982-2002 (while driving 4 hours EACH WAY for every home game), even while raising three kids. They gave up their tickets in 2003 because they could no longer afford to take JUST THE TWO OF THEM despite making about the same amount of money.
It’s insanity
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
FWIW
they don’t call them “seat licenses” — they call them “I-Club donations”
Same principle though.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
it's a joke.
throughout my childhood all i wanted to do was go to columbia for a saturday and see a mizzou game. my parents never did splurge on seats and i never understood why. my theory at the time was mizzou is college, college is not like the pros, tickets should be cheaper. as soon as i was old enough to actually know where to go to find tickets i found out why we never made a trip to columbia.
follow me on twitter @nickg105, @Rams_Fan_Voice
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 21, 2010 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions
It might be simple accounting...
but that doesn’t always apply to the real world. You can’t simply raise prices because costs increase. The market is already determining the max price the Cards can charge. The value of the product is not greater just because the costs of goods have changed.
If you see a guy open the car door for his girlfriend, either the car is new or the girlfriend is.
I never said it should be one to one...
But you can’t just divorce them and say they have nothing to do with one another. That simply is not the case.
Why is everyone assuming that the Cardinals are charging the max price for all their seats? And why does everyone assume that they do complicated market analyses to determine what the actual cost of a seat should be? They would be smart to do both of those things, but that doesn’t mean they ACTUALLY do those things.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
I guarantee you they actually do these things
These are billionaires who are good at business, they at the very least know someone who has taken a college level finance class. Absolutely guaranteed 100%.
Not afraid to nitpick
You really aren't getting this
It’s simple accounting — the more they pay players, the more they have to bring in on the revenue side in order to balance the books or make a profit. Period.
You have this backwards. The more revenue they bring in influences how much they can pay the players 100000x more than going the other way. They don’t say “hey we are paying Pujols more than we can afford, we need to increase revenues!” They are already trying to maximize their revenues—-right now, do you actually think that if they could get more revenues by charging higher prices that they wouldn’t charge higher prices? The correct answer is no. They are already charging what they think will get them the most revenue.
In terms of fan interest and fan willingness to pay, Albert Pujols is already maxed out. Signing him to a 25M/year deal vs. a 16M/year deal will have ZERO effect on a fan’s willingness to pay for a St. Louis Cardinals ticket. That extra cost is not something that will affect his ability to generate fan interest, and fan interest is what drives ticket pricing.
But it’s intellectually dishonest to bitch about both, because if you put yourself in the shoes of ownership you’d feel differently.
I’m not bitching about either, I think it’s hilarious that they are able to charge $6 for a hot dog and people (myself included!) will actually buy one. It’s a perfect case study for (limited) supply and (big) demand. Nor do I have a moral problem with it, if people are willing to pay for it, they should charge that price.
Joe the Season Ticket Holder is only going to bitch about the concessions prices if he’s still actually holding a season ticket. You can’t tell me that there aren’t people who had season tickets in 1985 that don’t have season tickets now because they simply can no longer afford what the tickets cost. There are those people.
I don’t know where this is coming from, but yes, there are lots of those people and the owners don’t give a fuck about them (nor would I if I was in their shoes). Fortunately for the owners, there are also enough rich people/corporations that still like to buy tickets to sell out the joint.
Not afraid to nitpick
I actually didn't buy a hot dog when I found out that they cost $6.50 or whatever
I also saved money on drinks since I got drunk faster. this is true economics.
(just ask adieuordie, I really did decide not to buy the hot dog)
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 21, 2010 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions
No, I get your point perfectly.
I just don’t necessarily agree with it. For instance, the market sets the price for players, not revenue. Revenue sets the price that a certain team can afford to spend on players — that’s absolutely true.
If people stop coming to games, the team has less money to spend on players, and people not buying tickets will effect the amount of money the team can spend on players.
The Rays and Marlins are two examples of this effect. They have two of the lower payrolls in all of baseball despite revenue sharing and television contract money that they get — they just can’t get anyone to come out and watch their games, and the Rays have been an elite level team 2 of the last 3 seasons. The fact that their attendance numbers are so terrible effects the amount they can charge for tickets AND it effects the amount that they can afford to pay players and still be a profitable franchise.
Increased ticket sales or increased ticket prices are the best way to improve revenue across the board for any franchise — they don’t have a lot of control over concessions income, merch income, etc. But they can raise ticket prices and budget the increase in their model every year to determine the breaking point.
You’re framing this debate around the Cardinals, who I would posit have a different relationship (read: more positive) with their fans than a lot of other teams in baseball in that we don’t have a lot of fair-weather and bandwagon fans, although there are a good share of those out there as well. I would say that there are going to be a lot more Rays fans stay home during a ticket increase than Cardinal fans.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
I'm framing the debate around the Cardinals
Because it started with:
I’m just stating that fans should understand that if the team is ponying up large dollars to keep Albert that those expenses have to be made up somewhere on the other side of the ledger
Ponying up more money for Albert does not affect Albert’s ability to draw a crowd, and as such a new contract will not affect whether the team raises ticket prices.
Not afraid to nitpick
But if we're going to pay a player $25M,
payroll probably has to go up in order to remain competitive. In which case, ticket prices may also rise slightly to cover the increase in costs.
I don’t know why you think these two things have nothing to do with one another. It’s simply not possible for that to be the case.
If this were pro football, I would agree with you, because of equal revenue sharing, a hard salary cap (up until this year at least), and bigger TV contracts.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
But if we're going to pay a player $25M,
payroll probably has to go up in order to remain competitive. In which case, ticket prices may also rise slightly to cover the increase in costs.
I don’t know why you think these two things have nothing to do with one another. It’s simply not possible for that to be the case.
If this were pro football, I would agree with you, because of equal revenue sharing, a hard salary cap (up until this year at least), and bigger TV contracts.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
to see a hall of famer playing baseball
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 21, 2010 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions
I actually talked with the Mariners tickets people about this
Joker is right… Ticket prices are fairly independent of the player budget, unless there’s a huge unanticipated increase (such as making the playoffs)
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!'
by mysterui on Sep 21, 2010 2:10 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
except DeWitt generally bumps up payroll when there's extra money coming in from attendance
other organizations may not operate in that way, nor expect 3 million sold per season.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
isn't there always extra money coming in from attendance?
since the new stadium opened the only season i can remember that didn’t at least come close to selling out virtually every game was 2008.
follow me on twitter @nickg105, @Rams_Fan_Voice
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 21, 2010 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions
it's possible that it's just a correlation
I was never clear on it when I read those articles. it basically said that if there was steadily high attendance, De Witt would loosen the strings. I’m not sure it ever said the money was directly flowing into the payroll budget.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
fair enough.
we’ve just heard the “payroll should be expanding” line over and over again for the past five years and nothing has happened, the team still hovers right around the $100 million mark even though attendance has been sky high in 4/5 years the stadium has been open and very high the other year. the fans have done their part and payroll still hasn’t budged.
follow me on twitter @nickg105, @Rams_Fan_Voice
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 21, 2010 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions
the sunk costs are probably higher than we know.
and they’re also putting a lot of resources into player development, so our dollars aren’t necessarily all going to the Major League field.
Twenty billion Stand for Stan tweets aren’t free….
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
so?
dewitt made the line several years ago that payroll could expand if ticket sales were high. well, they’ve been high and payroll hasn’t moved. saying it hasn’t moved because the sunk costs are too high is purely speculation and likely untrue.
follow me on twitter @nickg105, @Rams_Fan_Voice
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 21, 2010 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions
oh, so that new stadium is totally paid off? I guess I was just speculating.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
what's your point?
dewitt knew that he was going to have a stadium to payoff for the next 30 years and still fed the line that payroll could expand.
follow me on twitter @nickg105, @Rams_Fan_Voice
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 21, 2010 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions
sure.
but the fact that payroll isn’t expanding isn’t due to higher than expected sunk costs.
follow me on twitter @nickg105, @Rams_Fan_Voice
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 21, 2010 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions
show your work.
that statement is as much speculation as its opposite.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
but i can reasonable assume sunk costs haven't gone up
because if they have you likely would have heard about it.
follow me on twitter @nickg105, @Rams_Fan_Voice
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 21, 2010 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, don't forget that they built ball park.....
oh, wait.
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Second base….I’ve played second base, how hard can it be? -TLR
Also, Dave Concepcion.
*snort*
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 21, 2010 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions
opening day payrolls
2004: $ 83,228,333
2006: $ 88,891,371
2010: $ 94,220,500
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
those increases cover inflation almost exactly.
not any actual expanding.
follow me on twitter @nickg105, @Rams_Fan_Voice
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 21, 2010 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions
There's been little inflation between 2006 and 2010 though
prices have stayed nearly constant that entire period for durable goods.
I hate looking at opening day payrolls. It’s a stupid exercise because it’s very rarely indicative of what teams are spending on development, scouting, and mid-season pickups and trades for which they pick up player salaries.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
fwiw
this what i used.
follow me on twitter @nickg105, @Rams_Fan_Voice
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 21, 2010 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions
That's based on CPI, so it's somewhat accurate
but real inflation doesn’t always follow the CPI closely, and it hasn’t for the last decade or so.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
the point still remains though
75%+ of the increase is due to inflation. no drastic expanding has taken place.
follow me on twitter @nickg105, @Rams_Fan_Voice
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 21, 2010 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Right
But how much of the expansion from $60M payrolls in 1994 to $100M payrolls in 2002 was due to “inflation”. Isn’t it possible that they outgrew inflation for a while during those years and are simply making a correction?
Also, the value of the Cardinal franchise is nearly 200% what it was when DeWitt and Co. bought it. That should factor in when determining how much money they are making. They’ve doubled their investment while making money on the side most likely.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
extra money is an interesting concept
when applied to a devoted capitaist
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
...to DFA TLR
I don't see how this is the case.
If it is, then why in the hell do teams constantly demand new stadiums? Why do they need a new stadium if ticket prices don’t affect revenue? They aren’t DIRECTLY applied to one another (i.e. the ticket sales staff doesn’t have input on player negotiations, and the GM probably doesn’t have input on ticket prices), but ticket sales are a revenue and player salaries are an expense, and a big one at that, and if your intent is the maximize revenue while minimizing expenses, well, then at some level you have to look at both, don’t you?
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
What you are saying is rational. I buy it.
If someone wants to disput it, please provide some explanation. I’m open to the reasoning why this is inaccurate (if it is.)
All you need is love. But a little chocolate now and then doesn't hurt.
Charles M. Schulz
It just seems to jive with reality pretty well.
Florida has no attendance, Florida has no payroll. NYC has the most expensive tickets in the game, NYC has the highest payroll.
"What exactly is that thing? A pessimism meter?" - Bruce McCurdy
ehh, yankees = outlier
they have media holdings and vast….. tracts of land….
but the teams after are good examples.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
Red Sox are a prime example
The average cost of their ticket has grown almost hand in hand with the growth of their payroll over the last 20 years.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
All else equal
No. Player salaries do not make a dick’s bit of difference in their pricing decisions. If the Cardinals could keep exactly the same 25-man roster going into the season but magically have every player agree to a 20% cut, you would not see a single cent decline in ticket prices. Likewise if for whatever reason they had to pay 20% more for the same roster, you would not see an increase in player salaries because I guarantee they are already pricing to maximize revenue.
Not afraid to nitpick
You're right -- lower payroll does not mean lower ticket prices
But it does mean more discounting of tickets if the team is not good — which will directly effect revenue.
Also, just because they aren’t dropping ticket prices when payroll is reduced doesn’t mean that increasing payroll doesn’t increase ticket prices by some (but not necessarily the same) percentage. It’s not an inverse relationship as you seem to be suggesting.
If you have a bunch of fans willing to pay $50 a ticket to see a $100M team, they’ll probably still pay $50 a ticket to see a $85M team too, providing that team wins at a similar rate, and you make more money. Now, those same fans would definitely pay $50 a ticket to see a $115M team, even if it’s just as successful as the $100M team, but you’re making a much smaller profit if not taking a small loss, but if you raised your average ticket price by 15%, you’d turn a similar profit to the $100M team while, most likely, having a better team on the field. The question is where the breaking point is.
Go look at a graph of ticket prices since 1946 (Post WWII). They rise at a fairly steady rate (almost with inflation) until free agency in the mid-70’s, then they start to go up substantially in terms of average cost per ticket. Now, correlation doesn’t necessarily mean causation, but that’s a pretty damning relationship if you ask me.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Yes and No
I believe teams set ticket prices to maximize revenue. Once they do this, they determine what total team salary they can afford and budget accordingly.
But, not, they don’t set ticket prices based on salaries—that would be stupid. You could end up setting prices too high and screwing up attendance and total revenue.
Let’s put it this way—let’s say the stadium will sell out with tickets priced at an average of $50 a ticket. Do you believe if the team cut payroll 20%, they would then lower prices to $40 a ticket because expenses went down?
No.
Read my comment right above this one
Payroll doesn’t “set” ticket prices, and that’s not at all what I said either. I said that expanded payroll can result in higher ticket prices, and that, since 1975, that has been a pretty good predictor of the model for most baseball teams: The ones that have the highest payrolls generally also have the highest ticket prices. That’s wholly different from what you’re saying.
Basic micro-economic theory goes against what you’re saying as well. Prices for goods don’t necessarily fall when there’s excess supply, and in this case there can never be excess supply of tickets as they are a finite resource (i.e. there’s only so many tickets available at any given time, once they are gone, they are gone as far as the club is concerned — they might be sold again on the secondary market, but that doesn’t matter to the club). Once you’ve gotten people to pay a certain price for those tickets it would be foolish of you to lower the price of said tickets — you’re better off leaving the face value the same and discounting the product in a “ticking clock auction” like the Cardinals due with excess tickets from series that don’t sell out.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
According to the PDF attachment
here, Cardinals tickets are priced above the MLB average.
Cardinals: $30.14
MLB: $26.74
The Cardinals have cheaper premium tickets than the average. Considering that, doesn’t that indicate that the cheaper tickets at Busch are far more expensive than the cheaper tickets elsewhere in MLB?
I'm not sure Albert really sells that many tickets
merchandising, perhaps, but do you really think that if we sink the $25-30m we’d pay albert into, say, long-term deals for Adrian Gonzalez and, I dunno, Matt Cain or something, they’ll really be playing in an empty stadium? If we’re winning and putting a decent product on the field, there’ll be asses in seats. He’s maybe worth a couple of mill a year in attendance and merch, tops, and adding a big name star like Gonzalez or Fielder would pull in at least some of that, too.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 21, 2010 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions
I think this is right Felonius
I’m not sure that Albert adds that many additional fans. The marginal difference between Albert on a bad team and a good team with lesser stars like Holiday and Adrian Gonzalez would not weigh in favor of giving Albert more money.
Interesting aside
By WAR, Holliday’s had a better year than Albert. Going into a potential long-term extension, that would worry me (although it might be largely luck-driven and help us get a bit of a discount, I guess…)
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 21, 2010 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions
Pujols has a .290 BABIP this year
And is 4th in the NL in WAR per FanGraphs, and 2nd per Baseball Reference.
Yeah, I don’t think there is anything concerning about Albert’s going forward outside of normal aging curves.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 21, 2010 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions
*and* injury risk.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
What are the odds of a first baseman who hasn't had a serious injury in his career before getting injured after 10 years
Injury risks are already factored into the WAR/$ calculations and I think it’s safe to say that Pujols has a lower injury risk than the average player.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 21, 2010 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Even given the fact that it has been said, for Pujols,
it is a question of when he will need Tommy John surgery, not if?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Hasn't he needed Tommy John surgery for 4 years now?
I mean it’s not like his performance has suffered in the slightest. 2009 was possibly his best season.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 21, 2010 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions
How has his elbow affected his production this season?
Or, how has back affected his production this season? Or, how has his plantar faciitis affected his production this season? Or, how has his left elbow injury affected his production this season? Have these nagging injuries had a greater impact than in ‘09 or ’07? We don’t know. We can’t know. We don’t have enough information. What I do know is that a chronic health condition is not going to get better with age, especially when the individual engages in a line of work that requires quite a lot of repetitive motions.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
...
How has his elbow affected his production this season?
I doubt it. I doubt anything has effected his season this year.
His career wOBA is .434. His wOBA this year is .409; however, that comes with a .290 BABIP. Normalize his BABIP to his batted ball rates and he has a .434 wOBAr. Then consider the fact that league wOBA is down (97.8% of) this year compared to his career. You adjust for that and his wOBA is .444.
I don’t think he’s having a down year, more just an unlucky confluence of events (low BABIP, offense down across the league) is making it seem that way.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 21, 2010 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I know for me personally if I had to choose
If I had to choose between keeping Albert and fielding a winning team, I’d pick the winning team. Albert, Matt and the Seven Dwarfs, just won’t cut it. Heck, I think Albert would even understand that and agree with it. Albert wants to win. He has put together a good life here. He is doing good work with his foundation. I don’t know if that is reason enough for a discount, but I"m hoping.
All you need is love. But a little chocolate now and then doesn't hurt.
Charles M. Schulz
I think the kids will factor into it a lot more heavily than during the first contract negotiations.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 21, 2010 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions
I think you could be underestimating this...
Prior to the Cardinals acquiring Mark McGwire, the Cardinals only sold more than $3 million tickets twice (1987 and 1989). Every year since then we have either had McGwire or Pujols in the lineup. They’ve sold over 3 million tickets 12 out of 13 seasons since. the difference between 3.4 million tickets sold and 2.6 million tickets sold could mean the difference between a $100 milllion dollar payroll and an $80-85 million dollar payroll. At that point you have the same problem as you do currently with Gonzalez and Holliday taking up nearly 40% of and 80 million dollar payroll instead of Pujols and Holliday making 40% of a $100 million dollar payroll.
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Sep 21, 2010 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions
But before
McGwire, nobody sold the tickets they do now, right? Wasn’t attendance way down baseball-wide? I just think the climate of baseball fan-dom is different now and not as susceptible to singular players. But you are right, it shouldn’t be underestimated.
by WyoCardsFan on Sep 21, 2010 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Bonds could've been like that.
But he was too universally hated by that time. Not that people didn’t flock to see it, but he had so many people that were already on the “Fuck Barry Bonds” bandwagon. McGwire was a totally different persona.
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 21, 2010 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions
studies have shown
that winning teams sell tickets and that people won’t turn out nearly as much for losing teams with 1 great player. It’s in the Cards’ interest, therefore, to do everything possible to maintain winning even if it costs them Pujols rather than the other way around.
i think you are forgetting that you are a ratoinal human being
with substantial baseball knowledge, who can truly evaluate what makes a winning team. and ygaf
most of the people that go to baseball games (same reason i would go to a rams or a blues game, to see the star players whose names i know play), i dare say, are not as rational, and not as knowledgeable and not as interested
they go to see the stars play, hope to catch a foul ball, want to see some home runs, drink a couple of beers, eat a couple of hotdogs, buy a pujols t-shirt or jersey and go home at the end of the 8th inning to avoid traffic. regular people like having the-best-player-in-baseball on their team and they will buy tickets and buy merchandise with his name on it. just look at the ratio of 5’s and other numbers in the stadium. these people know they have albert on their team, even if they don’t know the names on half of the roster
albert pujols goes, ticket sales will dip, i don’t know how much, but if you’re taking away a major incentive, prepare to take the hit. i’m not saying the stadium will be empty but i think it will force payroll down because there’s a limit to how much you can raise ticket prices to try make up for the loss
you saw the uproar when luddy was traded, now substitute that with pujols and watch the circus
we can’t ride the 2006 champions wave forever and if we keep not getting deeper into the postseason and also trade away the face of the organization, we will lose some of the irregular ticket buyers.
i think bottom line, for the organization, having albert pujols at his price costs less than not having him
..i miss ludriguez-wick..
ticket prices weren't affected when luddy went; not the best example
sure pujols leaving would create an uproar but ticket prices? that’s completely different
by stlcardsfan4 on Sep 21, 2010 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions
negative PR
should (theoretically) drive ticket sales down
i didn’t say anything about prices
..i miss ludriguez-wick..
It's not that "Pujols puts butts in seats", even though he definitely DOES have some impact on attendance.
It’s that if you trade the cornerstone of the franchise, you’re signaling that you value dollars over players to the fanbase, and some idiot jackass on the radio will pound ownership into the dirt while revving up the fanbase into a froth over it. You’re underestimating the impact on public relations by letting him go. You’re going to have a lot of people who were on the fence about season tickets just not bothering to pony up for season tickets.
As I said, from a baseball perspective, having a $25M player on a $100M payroll makes no sense, regardless of who that player is. No team outside of New York City can afford to pay their entire roster what it would cost per win on the open market and finish better than .500 either.
We are not unemotional automatons. Look at what happened here at VEB last July when we traded for the best LF in the game! We had multiple threads blowing up about the trade, and that was when we traded BRETT WALLACE. Imagine what would happen if we traded Albert Pujols, when there’s no possible way you can get fair value for Albert Pujols?
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
That's one year out of ~8 on the contract
The amount of “fanbase reaction” is certainly significant in the short term, but the “fanbase reaction” won’t be doing shit if they are paying a gimpy 39 year old 30M to put up league average offense from 1B.
Not afraid to nitpick
Maybe I'm wrong here, but wasn't the Holliday contract, on some level, a tacit acknowledgement that they'll have to increase payroll if the want to compete?
In light of that, and the looming Pujols ext., there are really only two ways to look at things.
1) We’ll increase payroll by some amount in order to field something other than Albert, Matt and a seven-headed beast with Aaron Miles face(s).
2) Let’s not increase payroll and hope for the best in 2010-2013, because once Albert and Matt hit the hard part of their decline phases, 2014-2017/18 or so is gonna suck anyway, what with about 40 million a year tied up in two guys and Colby, Waino, Yadi, etc. no longer being relatively affordable. Sure, the plan might be to develop Garcia, Miller, Cox, etc. for those latter years, but that’s hardly certain.
I’ve kind of lost track where I was going with this, but, essentially, I think my point was they’ve got to increase payroll or write off the latter halves of the Holliday contract and the putative Pujols extension.
Leach wrote an article a few days ago quoting Mo saying payroll will increase
"Thats fucking Little League shit , if you're going to flip the bat , I'm going to flip your helmet next time " Steve Kline at Jimmy Rollins in his rookie year.
by riftraftredbird on Sep 21, 2010 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions
I read that.
It was the pretty standard Mospeak about how payroll will be around 95 to 105 million, and they’ll gauge whether they need to make a move during the season, etc.
It seems like we’ve been hearing that same thing for several years now, and yet we always somehow end up with fill-ins around the margins rather than tangible improvement. Last season excepted, obviously, what with the Holliday signing.
i think most of that fill in action is TLR generated . im talking about miles and feliz specifically
"Thats fucking Little League shit , if you're going to flip the bat , I'm going to flip your helmet next time " Steve Kline at Jimmy Rollins in his rookie year.
by riftraftredbird on Sep 21, 2010 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I thought it said could increase.
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Second base….I’ve played second base, how hard can it be? -TLR
Also, Dave Concepcion.
i just got the feeling from the article that an increase was expected because
something has to change in the infield = 2nd & 3rd and we dont have the players right now & we are going shopping
"Thats fucking Little League shit , if you're going to flip the bat , I'm going to flip your helmet next time " Steve Kline at Jimmy Rollins in his rookie year.
by riftraftredbird on Sep 21, 2010 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions
his pretty much exact words were
“we expect an incremental increase”
“we expect it to be between 95 and 105 mil”
..i miss ludriguez-wick..
From a baseball standpoint
if he wants $25M+ for 8 years, we’re better off letting him walk or dealing him at the deadline next year to someone for a bunch of prospects.
From an organizational standpoint, it would be a disaster, especially in the court of public opinion. Not only would it signal a reluctance to spend money, it would signal to the less-informed, more emotional fans (and the mass media who would be stoking this fire) that the organization is turning into the Oakland A’s. A few lean years, a few great years, etc. I think most of us here would be disappointed but would know that it makes far more sense to try and win without a huge anchor (or two huge anchors in this case, and possibly three if WW is signed long term after 2014, and he should be) on the payroll, but the fanbase at large (you know, those people that post over on the stltoday boards) would stage a pretty significant revolt.
Pujols has all the leverage in this situation, and he knows it. I don’t see him taking a home town discount. At least the negotiations should be fair and balanced and out of the media since Scott Boras isn’t involved, and hopefully it doesn’t come down to bilking every last dollar possible out of the organization “because we can”.
But if he’s asking for $30M for the next 8 years, I think the prudent answer is “no”. Then you try and build your club around Holliday, Rasmus, Wainwright, and Garcia (and hopefully Shelby Miller and Zach Cox in the near future). If you think about it, we could be a lot worse situation than we are.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
by fourstick on Sep 21, 2010 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Agreed
I love Albert as much as the next Cardinal fan, but if he wants a lot of years, and $30M per year, I’m really not sure we can remain ultra-competitive with that kind of contract on the books, UNLESS management is pretty much going to treat his extension separate from the regular team salary. Which I doubt.
It’s tough, b/c you really can’t start shopping Albert until you know you aren’t going to resign him. Can’t have that kind of info getting back to Albert. That is why, as soon as the season is over, they need to start talking. See if they are close. And be point blank with Albert, tell him he can take a little less than market maybe, and leave STL in a better position to supplement the talent around him, or he can ask for $30/season, and STL will either have to weigh their options, or sign him and hope the farm system produces like crazy.
I really hope Albert understands that
I think he’s smart enough to realize that something’s gotta give; if he wants the really top-tier money, he’s going to have to choose between staying on a mediocre Cardinals team or going somewhere else (assuming the org. will even consider signing him while not being able to afford keeping the team competitive). Hopefully they will reach some middle ground so he can get paid, stay here where he clearly likes to live and play baseball, and still have the possibility of being with a competitive team.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
I would hope so too
It is encouraging that the team has at least had some success using deferred money in the past.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
apu's agent spit off on his own this year
apu is his big client
if he wants more clients, he has to make a splash with this contract
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
...to DFA TLR
Yes, but has he openly negotiated in public in the past?
Does he run to every media outlet spewing outrageous stories that may or may not have any facts behind them?
Does he have an entire collective of people working for him to make sure he can drain every last possible dollar out of the organization to pay the player with little to no respect afforded to whether that organization can pay that salary and still be competitive?
No, I’d say that he doesn’t. Scott Boras does.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
being an open media negotiator and spreading misinformation in the bouros mold
is not the only way to be a tough negotiator and maximize your opportunity
never said he would take same approach as bouros
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
...to DFA TLR
I'm just saying there's a way to do things in the proper way
and then there’s Scott Boras….lol
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
I think the risk of a precipitous fall from grace is somewhat higher than "slight."
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Agreed
unless he has a Bonds-ian late-30s.
This ain’t happening without systematic, chemical “assistance.”
Albert’s been an all-time great; but he’s not improving, he’s declining. And he will decline throughout the life of his next contract – the only question is how fast. I don’t think he’s inclined to give any discount (any mention of a discount will be phony and mentioned after-the-fact by his agent, to explain why Albert didn’t sign the richest deal ever) and I say no thanks to $30MM per year.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Sep 21, 2010 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions
I think I agree
But it’s not unheard-of for a superstar to steadily perform in his mid-30s When I read this (and the other comments), I agreed about how Albert might go into decline pretty quickly, but then I remembered that Aaron put up solid numbers late in his career. For reference, Aaron was 32 years old in 1966:
Some of Aaron’s best years happened in his late 30s. I know that it’s just one comparison, and the larger body of data would suggest that Albert would decline like 99% of other players from this point onward, but Albert is not 99% of players.
Adios Esposito.
Adios Sarge. Say a prayer for Surf Boy...wherever he is.
Aaron played in the popsicle stand that was Fulton County Stadium for a lot of those years though
after playing in tough hitters parks for the majority of his career before that in Milwaukee. Just something to keep in mind with his great post 35 numbers.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
The overall trend is still valid though
He played most of his years there, and his wOBA was steady and inched upwards in his mid-to-late 30s. It’s not so much the raw score, it’s the trend over time for him in a consistent environment.
Adios Esposito.
Adios Sarge. Say a prayer for Surf Boy...wherever he is.
Consistent from 1966 onwards I guess
That’s when Fulton County opened.
Adios Esposito.
Adios Sarge. Say a prayer for Surf Boy...wherever he is.
This a single anecdote.
The general trend is for players to decline, like Frank Thomas (another anecdote). Hall-of-Famers are generally in the Hall because they defied the aging to curve to some extent. The question is whether Pujols will put together another ten years of HOF production to go with his first ten years of HOF production. The odds are that he will not.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I think I acknowledged that it is a single example
As for whether Albert Pujols will “put together another ten years of HOF production”, I think the odds are better that he will, assuming by “another ten years” we base the comparison on HOF-ers’ production from age 31 onwards.
And I’m basing that last comment on the WAR and/or wOBA curves of hall of famers that the guys at BtB have produced.
Adios Esposito.
Adios Sarge. Say a prayer for Surf Boy...wherever he is.
IIRC,
there was some study that showed the most talented players generally peak a little bit later and decline more slowly on average than the average of average players.
"What exactly is that thing? A pessimism meter?" - Bruce McCurdy
They do, but they still peak and decline.
I know that no one is saying that Pujols will not decline. The problem is that those HOFers were often on year-to-year contracts, controlled by their club. We are going to have an opportunity to pay an all-time premium for Pujols’s decline years and I don’t know that the Cardinals can afford to have $40MM or more (which is likely) tied up in two players as they age into their late 30’s. Being competitive will be incredibly difficult with such a payroll structure. That’s my point. I don’t want to be paying Pujols $30MM to put up a .360 wOBA.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I can guarantee you that Pujols will not be putting up a .360 wOBA until he as at least 40
He is arguably the best hitter of all time when you adjust for quality of the league:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/measuring-the-change-in-league-quality-part-three/
It’s ridiculous to apply normal aging curves to him.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 21, 2010 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions
He hasn't had a serious injury in his career so far
And he’s a first baseman who doesn’t exactly burn it down the line (although there is the problem that he is on base a lot). I tend to think that he’s not likely to suffer a serious injury.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 21, 2010 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions
In September of 2009,
at what would you have put the likelihood of A-Rod putting up a wOBA of .360 in 2010?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
as an aside
aren’t all hitting stats down in ’10?
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 21, 2010 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Not 50 points of wOBA lower.
OPS has dropped 20 points from ‘09 to ’10. A-Rod’s has dropped from .933 to .837.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
he's also pretty far removed from his roids
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 21, 2010 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions
A-Rod never had near the K:BB numbers that Pujols had
He’s also gained a decent amount of value from his SB numbers over the years, not to mention otherworldly power. Besides A-Rod has a .278 BABIP this year and had wOBA’s over .400 the previous two years – I’m sure this year is mostly a fluke.
Pujols is not likely to have a .360 wOBA season anytime soon because he’s had more walks than strikeouts in every single season of his career besides his rookie season (when he had 3 less walks than strikeouts).
He’s also never had a season below .400 wOBA, whereas A-Rod has had 6.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 21, 2010 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm well-versed in the ways we can demonstrate Pujols's ridiculosity with stats.
I am asking whether this club can afford to pay a player $25-to-30MM, and then have that player suffer a Frank Thomas type of decline. Or, to even had a pedestrian .360 wOBA year. The Yanks surely can do so, but I don’t know that we can with our payroll. If we pay Pujols that much for that long, he will have to be Pujolsian for that long. If he isn’t, the club will tank.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
First off I don't think we should sign Pujols if he wants 30 million annually
And I don’t really think that he will hold out for that. Pretty much only the Yankees and maybe Red Sox could afford 30 million a year, and both have their star first basemen locked up for a while.
Pujols also knows that it would be hard to be competitive if we are paying him 30 million. I doubt that he’s the kind of guy who’s going to care if he makes 180 million pre his ridiculous amount of endorsements or 220 million.
I would place the most likely contract at 8/180. And Pujols is definitely worth that, even considering odds of sharp decline or injury. He doesn’t even have to be Pujolsian to justify that contract.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 21, 2010 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think that we disagree.
I think 8 years, $240MM would cripple our franchise’s ability to field a competitive team. I would rather not do 8 years. My hope would be a six-year deal, even if it is worth $180MM. I doubt it will happen since Holliday’s contract is viewed as a seven-year deal and we couldn’t give Pujols fewer. I would be happy with 8 years and $180MM. I just don’t know if he would go for it.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I just can't imagine Pujols rejecting an 8 year 180 million dollar deal
In favor of like a 8 year 210 million dollar deal. He has too many ties in St. Louis.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 21, 2010 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I hope Teixeira is the chief comparison
and not A-Rod or Howard.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
That horrendous Howard deal
even though it made me laugh out loud at Ruben Amaro’s crippling stupidity, is the thing that worries me. Is Albert really likely to swallow a lesser AAV than a guy who is so clearly an inferior player in every respect? Hats off to him if he does.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 22, 2010 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
To be fair, he doesn't need to
a 20m-25/yr deal is probably just about fair for the next 6 years, maybe even 8 years, if his decline is reasonably slow (and this year is just a “blip” of low production). But if there’s any sort of Frank-Thomas-esque decline, that contract is going to be an absolute disaster. The problem is, it’s pretty much impossible to predict with any accuracy.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 21, 2010 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions
I think getting value in trade is going to be next to impossible
The superstars in Albert’s age range are all franchise players or simply done. The young players who could show potential are either locked in as long-term Faberge hatchlings, or could develop significant downsides. It’s just a bad time to do it in terms of generations, what with Colby’s peers settling in.
It’s also an Archimedean exercise: the team has been built around Albert for so long, one would not only have to replace the Albert-sized space, but compensate for the displacement around him. It’s going to be more complicated than just getting value for one ridiculously incredible player.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
I think the fact that the team revolves around Albert might be a reason to trade him.
Right now, he holds all the cards (hehehe) and he can do whatever he wants. The club (players/personnel) have no choice but to go along with it.
I think Albert is a good guy, not to mention very talented and dedicated to winning and if there has to be an all powerful person in Cardinal Land, I’m glad it’s him and not someone else.
It makes me nervous though. If something goes wrong with that one person, your franchise can find itself in a deep hole. A discount would make the risk more palatable.
All you need is love. But a little chocolate now and then doesn't hurt.
Charles M. Schulz
We'll never get fair value,
but I don’t think that we have to get a true “fair” value for him, because we have Rasmus, Holliday, Garcia, and Wainwright already. I think if we can get a major leaguer, an A prospect along with a couple other B/C prospects that would be enough.
For instance, if you could deal him to the Red Sox and get Ryan Westmoreland, Jose Iglesias, and Daniel Bard or Michael Bowden for him I think that’s a pretty fair deal for both sides, especially if the Red Sox are in it next year. Hell, I’d take Westmoreland and Bowden and call it a day actually. Westmoreland is a 5 tool guy with speed and a good arm in the outfield and Bowden would be a good middle of the rotation starter — he’s better than Lance Lynn, not as good as Shelby Miller.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
I agree with the first
I like our core. On that note, I don’t think the stars-and-scrubs approach is failing that badly. We just can’t seem to put a bench together that’s worth shit on a cake, despite our minor league system in contention every year, and the only real goal being getting out of the NL Central.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 21, 2010 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions
with apu on board
jmo needs to give tlr the bench the team wants, not the one he wants
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
...to DFA TLR
needs
we need a good bench
I’ve been waiting, what, 5 frickin’ years for a good bench.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 21, 2010 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions
I was so excited for our bench this year too
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
no-one has a good bench
really, if Freese had been healthy, a bench of Jay/Craig, Greene, Floppy and fill-ins isn’t too bad. We just got a bit unlucky with injuries and a curmudgeonly old manager who loves (s)crappy veterans.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 21, 2010 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
doubt if lopez will be back next year
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 21, 2010 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions
well, Jay is no longer on our bench, it seems.... hmm.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
Rec, nice post.
This is pretty much the season in a nutshell.
Adios Esposito.
Adios Sarge. Say a prayer for Surf Boy...wherever he is.
and a gm who gave in
hey, memphis won
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
...to DFA TLR
You need to realize
that some people here seem to think that we can sign players who would start for other teams to our bench. Just like we can sign pitchers worthy of a rotation spot as “insurance” against injuries and have them sit around at Memphis starting every fifth day until something happens to one of our big league starters.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Yup
even the Yankees bench is pretty much full of crappy players. Now and again you get a guy who flies under the radar due to a down year signing up to be a 4th OF somewhere for a contender, or a guy like Rocco Baldelli who can only play part time for health reasons, but generally bench guys are average or below-average hitters, glove only guys with no bat, or folks like Matt Stairs who can hit a bit but who are basically pinch-hitters with no defense.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 22, 2010 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed -- people need to realize that Scott Spiezio is and exception, not the norm.
Most good bench guys are like So Taguchi — good glove, versatile, speedy, and can mash either left handed or right handed pitching and are good pinch hitters.
We have a lot of guys in our minor league system that fit that bill. You can’t expect FA “bench” players to get 250-300 PA’s and be league average. If they were that good, they’d be a regular for someone.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
I'd rather get one, really top-end prospect from him
though I recognise teams generally just don’t trade those players. I’d much rather have Bard than Bowden – I think Bowden is somewhere between PJ Walters and Lance Lynn as a prospect – probably closer to Lynn, but I don’t really see him as better; they’ve got similar stuff, have taken a similar path to the majors, and put up similar numbers in AAA in their first year there (Lynn’s about a year younger and slightly less advanced). All IMO, anyhoo.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 21, 2010 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions
I would trade him to the Sox for Youk, Andersen, and (an)other prospect(s).
I think that is fair.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Yuck
I want nothing to do with Anderson, as I don’t think he’s going to be a 20 HR guy in the big leagues (he’s Nick Johnson WITH all the injury problems and worse defense) and Youkilis isn’t that much younger than Albert is.
Westmoreland is by far their best prospect and after the year he’s had this year, he’ll probably be in the top 10 on BA’s list next year. He’s a true talent and is only 19.
Westmoreland, Iglesias (who’s very much like Elvis Andrus — he can pick it and has speed, just hasn’t had great contact rates as of yet in the minors), and a couple of B level pitchers would be a fine haul and wouldn’t really disrupts the Sox system, as they have a lot of depth.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Right, but Youk allows us to win now,
and is on a much more club-friendly contract. I don’t know much about Anderson, so I’ll defer to people who know more. There is no way that we should forfeit good years from Holliday, Yadi, and Wainwright, and just make a straight prospect trade, though. We have to try to have our cake and eat it, too, in my opinion. I think we need big-league talent back, in addition to prospects.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
But if we make a straight prospect trade,
the market in 2012 looks to be VERY good in terms of adding talent.
We could take Albert’s $25M and give $18M of it to Adrian Gonzalez and spend another $7M as part of the $10M or so to lock up someone like Josh Willingham or Dan Uggla or Nick Swisher.
I’d spend $28M on Gonzalez and Uggla, and try to get prospect rich in the meantime by trading Pujols. Trading Albert doesn’t have to giving up a win-now situation. It’s just that you have to trade him to a potential destination and payroll friendly team that would be interested in Gonzalez so that you have a better shot at getting him.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
With the Wainwright-Carp one-two punch intact for 2011,
I would want someone who can do a decent job filling in for Pujols. That’s my point. Youk is making about $12MM. But he was just an example. And I believe he comes off the books after 2012, if the Cards were to not exercise his option. So, theoretically, we would still have over $30MM in payroll freed up. Whether that goes to re-signing Youk or Carp is another question.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Why would they trade Youk for Pujols?
Pujols is at best a 3 WAR upgrade or so, costs a bit more next year, and they’ve got Youk on a long-term, club friendly deal after that. I don’t think less than a year of Pujols is worth Youk.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 21, 2010 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions
I was thinking that any trade would be contingent on a window to negotiate the extension.
I could see them doing the trade, if they can get Pujols to agree to an extension. Sort fo like the Phillies and Halladay.
Youk is signed through 2012, with a 2013 club option. (I don’t know how long-term that is. To me, “long-term” has always been five years or longer.) You’re right in that I think the Red Sox would be foolish to do such a deal. I would love to get a 4-to-5-WAR player at $12MM through his age 33 season (or, 34, if you choose to pick up his option) in exchange for not paying a player $25-to-30MM for his age 32-38 seasons.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I suppose
it’s also more likely if they get Beltre for another couple of years. Otherwise I could see them just moving Youk to 1B.
Trading for ageing superstars doesn’t seem to really be the Boston way these days, though, but I suppose they’d make an exception for #5.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 21, 2010 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree about Boston's philosophy,
but the Lacke contract shocked me, so I don’t really know how dead-set they are on that philosophy.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
from albert's perspective, i see no reason for him to go to boston
the al east is killer, and i think the monster would really hurt him (so many of his hr are line drives)
by YesWeOquendo on Sep 21, 2010 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions
an issue no doubt
reds give votto for apu straight up, no
rangers give hamilton straight up, no
so value will be in prospects, which has its own problematic aspects
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
...to DFA TLR
Any trade has to be Albert approved......
trading him now is not up to the club, it’s up to Albert. If they didn’t think he could be re-signed, at a number that they find palatable, they needed to trade him this year.
10 and 5.
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Second base….I’ve played second base, how hard can it be? -TLR
Also, Dave Concepcion.
is that someone's sig yet?
also, Seattle.
but seriously, one team for sure that’s on his list is the Marlins. in case anyone wants to cook with fish on the hot stove…
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 21, 2010 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions
That's the thing, there is no list any more.
There are no 5 teams we can make a deal with. Albert has full no trade for the duration of his time in the Lou.
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Second base….I’ve played second base, how hard can it be? -TLR
Also, Dave Concepcion.
yes, I mean Albert himself has said he would approve a trade to the Marlins.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 21, 2010 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Has he said that since he's ahad the full NTC?
At this point, why accept a trade, deal with a move for one season, and then hit FA? I think if the Cards say we want to ship you ________, Albert tells MO to go piss in the wind.
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Second base….I’ve played second base, how hard can it be? -TLR
Also, Dave Concepcion.
I only mentioned it in the interest of speculation.
Not implying that it was going to happen. hence “if case anyone wants to cook…”
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 21, 2010 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions
in case
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 21, 2010 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions
I think he'd only move to a team if it was a contending (preferably strongly contending)
team at the FA deadline. And, realistically, given payroll constraints, rosters (i.e. teams that already have a good 1B/DH) and minor league systems, it’s hard to see more than 2 or 3 possible destinations.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 21, 2010 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions
he hates playing at wrigley
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
twatter
by prophetjohn on Sep 21, 2010 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions
yes that and he wants to play for a winning team. Hey Cubs got rings?
"Thats fucking Little League shit , if you're going to flip the bat , I'm going to flip your helmet next time " Steve Kline at Jimmy Rollins in his rookie year.
by riftraftredbird on Sep 21, 2010 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions
2011 is their year!
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
twatter
by prophetjohn on Sep 21, 2010 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions
heh
"Thats fucking Little League shit , if you're going to flip the bat , I'm going to flip your helmet next time " Steve Kline at Jimmy Rollins in his rookie year.
by riftraftredbird on Sep 21, 2010 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Year 2!?
Cardinals 2010 memorial sig. Never Forget.
by The Continental on Sep 21, 2010 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm really afraid that might happen.
Albert doesn’t seem like the most vindictive of people, but the dude doesn’t like to be screwed with.
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 21, 2010 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm with you, Forsch.
Just go to the guy and say this:
Albert, we realize you’re the mang, and we want to pay you every penny you’re worth, but we also want to field a team that can win. This (insert number here) is what we think we can work out and still be able to field a team around you that will compete.
If Albert says no, at least he feels like the team has been up front with him. Don’t screw around and risk alienating him.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
trading Albert wouldn't work
but you gotta let him walk if he asks for too much
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 21, 2010 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions
i have nothing to add to this conversation
but i just have to say good stuff to everyone involved. reading about the economics of baseball (and sports in general) is one of my favorite things to do.
follow me on twitter @nickg105, @Rams_Fan_Voice
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 21, 2010 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions
"he's a pretty good ball player"
understatement of the millennium?
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 22, 2010 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions
One thing you almost mentioned:
The discussions going on in some fanposts about what a possible extension for Carp might look like. He has an option for 2012 that I would like to see replaced with a two or three-year extension. Judging by some of the contracts signed by other older players like Rolen and Polanco, and weighing Carp’s constant risk of a third or fourth career-ending injury, I think a 3/27 type of deal would be doable and would only raise Carp’s salary $11M over two years while spreading out the injury risk over those years and almost certainly allowing him to end his career as a Cardinal. Is this a dumb thing to even think about? I know the team let Morris and Williams walk at the right times, and it would have sucked to have held on to those pitchers while they continued to decline.
"What exactly is that thing? A pessimism meter?" - Bruce McCurdy
Your sig's link is broken
And I’m interested as to seeing what it was
I am sure the Walrus can play RF...
It was the win probability graph from FG of a particularly shitty game this year.
"What exactly is that thing? A pessimism meter?" - Bruce McCurdy
Carp Extension
I would hope that they would wait until after 2011 and then negotiate a two-year extension with a club option for a third year. As for the amount, I would not venture to guess until after 2011.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
i think negotiating now is important if his annual will go down
next year is a crunch for $ if apu’s extension include an increase in aav
2012, assuming the world exists, will see more flexibility if their draft picks pick it up
cox, miller, matias-martinez, etc
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
...to DFA TLR
A good point
Also, given how important Yadi appears to be to the Cardinals, I still can’t believe how hard they’ve worked him this year. He leads NL catchers in AB, PA, and games, and only McCann even comes close.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
And when they do let him rest they seem to prefer Matt Pagnozzi to Anderson.
Blech. Anyway, I’m really scared of Yadi breaking down. His defense, handling of the pitching, and the possibility of hitting well for a catcher make him really valuable.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
What would be the result of Yadi breaking down?
He can’t possibly get any slower. It’s not like he’d ever be moved to another position for his bat (like a Mauer or a Biggio). His knees are what they are after a lifetime of catching – I don’t know that giving him another 10 games off during the season is going to make any difference at all to the long-term state of his knees.
I guess what I mean is that there may be some slight benefit to his in-season performance if he had a few more games off (though the measure of that benefit is likely to be speculative), but I don’t know of any evidence that a few more games off would lengthen his career of stave off a break down.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Sep 21, 2010 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions
Oddly enough though.
It always seems like Yadi has hit and played better after a day off. It may do nothing for the long-term but it has an effect on the here and now.
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 21, 2010 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Oops
Actually, McCann leads Yadi in PA. He’s still probably the harding-working catcher in the NL this year.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Poor Bat Gagnozzi
He could really use those extra PAs to develop, right?
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Mis-ter Anderson....
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
If only he could plug his brain into the computer and instantly learn Yadi's defensive skills
I know plate-fu!
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Develope what?
The only thing he developes is tiny ulcer in my stomach every time he plays.
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 21, 2010 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Interesting... does ulcer-inducing count as a "tool"?
We can safely upgrade Pagnozzi from a “zero tool” player to a “one tool” player!
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Check out defensive stats for catchers.
If Yadi loses the GG to a better hitting catcher, heads should roll.
I am sure the Walrus can play RF...
or change the award to best overall position player instead of a defense award.
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 21, 2010 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Some basic stats
He leads all Majors in Putouts, Assits, Innings, Games, Games Started and Total Chances. He is second in Double Plays, third in Caugh Stealing and has a 37.5% CS ratio that is tops in the league as well, if I did the calculations correctly. He is simply head and shoulders above the rest in the counting and ratio stats…
I am sure the Walrus can play RF...
and didn't win it during his best defensive season.
GG for catchers seems to be some kind of tenure, these days. And the only passes are the intentional kind in Professor Yadi’s classroom…
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
I think people are underestimating the risks involved in replacing Albert
Even if we trade him, he only has the 1 year option on his contract. How much do people really think we’re going to get coming back our way? The idea that we’d get a “boatload” of major league ready talent in return seems overly optimistic.
Yes, we’d have some extra money for free agents, but do people really expect that either one free agent with very good power numbers or multiple FAs with decent power will cost less, at least in the short term?
And then there’s the broader idea of replacing Pujols. The reason this inspires such discussion is because he has arguably had, up to this point, the greatest 10 years of any player in MLB history. You don’t just easily find a solution that consistently replicates his year by year production.
Also, I realize that VEBers aren’t the most sentimental people in the world, but intentionally not bringing back or trading Albert, especially while he still has productive years left, would arguably be the most explosive, controversial decision in the history of St. Louis sports. If we don’t quickly win with Albert’s “replacements”, it’s not hard to imagine that the lingering bitterness combined with a lack of success this franchise could send this franchise into a rapid downward spiral.
I think the real issue is that...
there’s no future replacement for Pujols’ last 10 years of production, not even by Pujols himself.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Sep 21, 2010 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions
true, but
i also wonder what apu wants
he’s beyond rich already
does he really want to go trotting his 40 yo body out there and hitting 250 at age 38 or 40?
i think the key is a contract that involves more than playing because i think he has too much pride to be out there taking up space when his skills have seriously eroded
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
...to DFA TLR
conspiracy theory
Yadi has taught Albert how to catch the starters.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 21, 2010 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
That's going to depend on if he's close enough to any records to chase.
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 21, 2010 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions
or has any left to break.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 21, 2010 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
ding-ding
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 21, 2010 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions
i'm assuming amaury cazana marti's 10,345 career HR record will probably be safe in 2021.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 21, 2010 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions
How much money for Pujols - Only a guess on my part .
While Pujols has enough money to keep him and his familyin high style, he might be thinking of more money for the family foundation. There are a lot of people in the world that need help. He may see that as his calling and reach out for the bucks for that reason.
All you need is love. But a little chocolate now and then doesn't hurt.
Charles M. Schulz
oh i thought we were talking about his four kids
j/k
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
maybe they want to add to the family.
need an extra $100 M per kid.
All you need is love. But a little chocolate now and then doesn't hurt.
Charles M. Schulz
if that $100 M went to developing AJ Pujols for us
hell yeah
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
Ken Griffey was a good player.
Ken Griffey Jr. was an awesome player.
Bobby Bonds was a really good player.
Barry Bonds was a ridiculously awesome player.
Albert Pujols is a ridiculously awesome player.
A.J. Pujols will be…?
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
ok, maybe they can work the AJ thing into a contract incentive
And kill two birds with one stone.
All you need is love. But a little chocolate now and then doesn't hurt.
Charles M. Schulz
This doesn't always work in this direction:
For instance:
Tom Pagnozzi was a good player
Matt Pagnozzi sucks on ice.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Curse your contrary examples!
Heh. Not to mention Tony Gwynn and Tony Gwynn Jr. However, in fairness I think Matt Pagnozzi is his nephew, not his son.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Also, Prince Fielder, so far, looks better than his dad.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
He is the nephew.
Unless………
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Sep 21, 2010 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Matt Pagnozzi has a career wOBA of .289.
He had a handful of good years, but was pretty replacementy.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
You mean Tom Pagnozzi I think
Matt Pagnozzi doesn’t have a .289 wOBA in the MINORS.
Just saying that if that assumption held that Pagnozzi, being the younger generation of Tom, should be better at baseball. Yet he is NOT better at baseball.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
....I don't think we're entirely serious about this assumption.
besides, Tom Pagnozzi isn’t in the Hall of Fame.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
It is an interesting correlation though
kinda like how many QB’s have started 60 games in the NFL in the last 40 years? What percentage of those QB’s are from the Manning family?
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
there's probably some causation with access to training methods and facilities
…………but seriously, Albert, you don’t need to throw 45 minutes of BP to the kid before every game. play video games or something…
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
I did mean Tom.
What is Matt’s MLBE wOBA?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Then the question is, could we find a replacement for the next 5 years or so
I’m just arguing that, especially in the short term, replacing Albert has a lot more pitfalls and risks than most people seem to be assuming.
In case anybody missed it, there is a USA Today
article discussing possible managerial changes this winter and TLR is prominently discussed. The speculation centers around Guillen leaving the White Sox.
If Tony went to the White Sox, certainly they would make a run to sign Albert as a FA.
Not for 2011, they wouldn't.
That would be tampering. Albert’s contractually obligated to play for the Cardinals next season. .
Tony doesn't equal Albert
let’s stop acting like it does
by stlcardsfan4 on Sep 21, 2010 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions
but
tony would push tony front office to sign albert if he were a free agent
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
twatter
by prophetjohn on Sep 21, 2010 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Tony doesn't equal Albert
But does having Tony increase the chances of signing Albert.
I didn’t get on base. One time I did (Wednesday) and we scored a run. That shows if I get on base, things can happen - Oilspill
probably but i think i've heard albert say about a million times "i wan to stay in san lous"
"Thats fucking Little League shit , if you're going to flip the bat , I'm going to flip your helmet next time " Steve Kline at Jimmy Rollins in his rookie year.
by riftraftredbird on Sep 21, 2010 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
followed by "but it's not up to me"
All you need is love. But a little chocolate now and then doesn't hurt.
Charles M. Schulz
i don't know that at his age
and with the weight he has in the Cardinals organization
TLR would want to go somewhere else and start from scratch and establish his way from the ground up – seems like too much work for someone who is a couple years removed from retirement and has a staff he’s worked with for a million years
besides, don’t all FO’s in the MLB know that Tony is batshit insane?
..i miss ludriguez-wick..
The White Sox hired Ozzie Guillen.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
Buck Showalter just did it.
Bobby Valentine wants to do it.
Albert has the advantage of being ridiculous - FredbirdisaDork
We won't get diddly in a trade now
Why would any team give up anything of value at the deadline when they can wait 3 more months and sign him, unless they get him to agree to an extension to approve a trade and if he is after money he’d be insane to pass up hitting the market and starting a bidding war.
by lopey986 on Sep 21, 2010 12:15 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
why do teams trade for anyone at the deadline?
a: because wins in a close pennant race are hugely valuable. And albert = more wins than any other player.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 21, 2010 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Also do you want Albert playing against you ? i think not . He's the best in baseball
Why trade him now ? i think TLR is going bye bye after this season and so are Felix , Stav , Miles and maybe Lopez keeping the core of Albert , Holliday , and Rasmus . The Cardinals desparately need new players at 3rd and 2nd and trading Albert with only a one year is not going to get the job done .
"Thats fucking Little League shit , if you're going to flip the bat , I'm going to flip your helmet next time " Steve Kline at Jimmy Rollins in his rookie year.
by riftraftredbird on Sep 21, 2010 12:17 PM EDT reply actions
You won't want Albert playing against us?
It seems to work ok for Cincy.
he’s 1 player.
no i meant if albert goes to another team
"Thats fucking Little League shit , if you're going to flip the bat , I'm going to flip your helmet next time " Steve Kline at Jimmy Rollins in his rookie year.
by riftraftredbird on Sep 21, 2010 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Seen several comments about needing a 3B this thread
Is Freese’s outlook really that terrible? Is he expected to be injured every season or something?
Feliz
I understand that he’s a terrible hitter, but if the bench loses Stav and Miles I’m OK with keeping a good backup defensive player on there for 3B, and maybe? other MIF. And Feliz isn’t gonna be expensive to sign to a 1-year contract. I wouldn’t mind seeing Freese play 5-6 days a week or the first 8 innings of a game and being taken out for defense.
I’m also sure there are better options out there..but
No.
Feliz is no longer a MLB player. His bat is horrendously bad. It’s epic.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Yeah
He’s worse than Miles as a hitter at least. He’s still probably a better player because he’s at least 10 runs better in the field though.
Not afraid to nitpick
This is true, but this presupposes that the choice is between keeping Feliz *or* Miles.
There are oh so many more options out there, whether they be in the organization or on the free agent market, that there is absolutely no reason to keep either. Although, if TLR returns, we could very well keep both. Ugh.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I was just giving a baseline of how bad a hitter he is
Worse than Miles is really negatively impressive.
Not afraid to nitpick
Has the term "dead weight" ever been so appropriate in describing two Cardinal roster members?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
FA 3B according to Cots:
(*= team option)
Garrett Atkins FA
Adrian Beltre BOS *
Jorge Cantu TEX
Eric Chavez OAK *
Pedro Feliz STL
Bill Hall BOS *
Brandon Inge DET
Maicer Izturis LAA
Mike Lowell BOS
Melvin Mora COL
Nick Punto MIN *
Ty Wigginton BAL
They forgot Felipe Lopez, too.
Some intriguing options, mixed in with some truly terrible ones.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 21, 2010 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions
nick punto is a good utility guy
can’t hit for shit, but his defense is wonderful; also bill hall…
don’t want anybody who is limited to corner infield – so atkins, beltre (cost anyway), cantu, chavez, feliz, lowell, mora…)
and wigginton sucks so that leaves izturis, punto, and hall
by stlcardsfan4 on Sep 21, 2010 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions
they operated on both ankles.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
I recall an article a month or three ago
Saying he was expected to be ready by Spring Training. I could be making this up, but I swear I read that. And I understand that baseball injuries and expected time tables are a worse science than _, especially it seems for Cardinals players, but what’s the typical recovery time for the surgery he underwent?
I'm sure he's "progessing nicely"
But I’m all for some insurance. I don’t want to just wait for Spring Training and then find out he can’t play or he’s only 50 percent or something. I’m all for adding someone to play 3b even if it is as a backup when Freese hopefully returns.
terrible?
No. I wouldn’t say terrible. However; I would say relying on a guy who is is a question mark on being able to play in the majors, (is the the .280 with ok range side to side, great fielding when moving forward, and great at starting the dp, or does the bat drop off with a full year of exposure and the defense suffers with all the wheel injuries), a health risk, and who has had a few off field incidents; is IMO; a mistake. One i would rather Mo no repeat.
I didn’t get on base. One time I did (Wednesday) and we scored a run. That shows if I get on base, things can happen - Oilspill
any trade would have to have quantity. major quantity.
one injury can bust a trade. better to spread the risk, because the only thing worse than losing Albert would be getting nothing back for it.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
When I tried to Log in this morning
SBN told me something went wrong. How right they are.
I didn’t get on base. One time I did (Wednesday) and we scored a run. That shows if I get on base, things can happen - Oilspill
Here's a flashback to a "trade Pujols" discussion from March 2009
http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2009/3/25/809841/mr-mo-for-a-day
I brought it up then, and I got universally hated. But I still pretty much agree with all of the arguments I made then, both about the Cardinals not being on a path to succeed in 2009-2011, and about why resigning Albert is a risky proposition.
I’m sure he’ll be the greatest Cardinal I ever see play. But I’m not sure I want to pay him $30 million when he is 37.
Another question:
Is Albert really 30? There used to be a lot of talk that he was secretly older than that. I’d be really pissed if we gave him a big check and he said “Yoink! I’m actually 43, mang.”
by YepYouGuessedIt...CardinalRed on Sep 21, 2010 2:00 PM EDT reply actions
at this point it's all just speculating.
and can’t be a serious consideration in contract talks unless something else comes out.
follow me on twitter @nickg105, @Rams_Fan_Voice
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 21, 2010 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions
he has looked older than people his age throughout his baseball career
even in high school. so he must be doing a very good job of covering up his age
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 21, 2010 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Like Miguel Tejada?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I would never compare Albert Pujols to Miguel Tejada lol
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 21, 2010 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I find it amazing that Tejada managed to cover up his true age for as long as he did.
He signed that big contract with Baltimore without the Orioles uncovering his forged birth certificate and was then traded to Houston without the Astros uncovering it. Incredible.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
You could argue that could be grounds to nullify the contract, legally
I’m surprised Houston didn’t try last year, actually, when he started to go crappy….
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 21, 2010 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions
I wonder what Houston's right to nullify is since they were not an original party to the contract.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Looks like someone fell out of the bed
and landed on his menstrual cycle
I am sure the Walrus can play RF...
by Paulspike on Sep 21, 2010 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
wat
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 21, 2010 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions
excuse me?
a) that’s no way to talk to a woman
and b) this pujols is older shit is really really old
..i miss ludriguez-wick..
if anything he is like a year or two older
but I’ll take him for his word until there’s ANY kind of proof (which there’s not)
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 21, 2010 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions
that's.... classy
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 21, 2010 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions
being bigger than his peers and marrying young (with starter family included) likely affected scouting evaluations
and we all saw how scouting evaluations went for Albert Pujols.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
I honestly do think about it from time to time
but I think it’s mostly likely that he’s just one of those freaks of nature that physically matured very early. As a married 26 year old with one child who still gets carded, I can empathize with not looking one’s age.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
A lot of teams trade their star
But don’t have anybody to take their place. We still have Holliday and Waino, and you might be able to add Raz and whomever Albert was traded for to that list in a few years. I don’t think our “star power allure” would fall that much, especially if the team was winning.
I'm gonna go out on a limb and say trading him away is not a very good idea
but then again, a long term contract like Holliday’s is probably not a very good idea either.
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 21, 2010 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Albert is inconsequential
Ravenous Baseball City + Winning Team = Happy Fans in the Seats
Albert has been a very effective means to that end for a decade, but if we traded him and the team kept winning, nobody would mourn his loss.
by YepYouGuessedIt...CardinalRed on Sep 21, 2010 2:57 PM EDT reply actions
THERE WOULD BE SO MUCH MOURNING.
even sadder than Jimmy in a cubs uni. even sadder than Ludwick wearing blue. even sadder than Scotty throwing out one of ours across the diamond. even sadder than Aaron Miles.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
But in all that sadness people still came to watch
because, no matter how many former Cardinals went to other teams, at least we still had Albert Pu—
wait… fuck.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
actually, I'm okay with going to a losing contest if the baseball played is crisp.
but they’ve been failing big time in that area too.
I’m really, really, really hoping for the ghost of George Kissell to appear on the roof of Busch Stadium with a sniper rifle and a lightning bolt.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
Albert is inconsequential LOL!
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 21, 2010 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions
good one
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 21, 2010 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions
If we kept winning is a pretty big if
If we don’t keep Albert and we don’t stay competitive, this “ravenous baseball city” could get pretty disillusioned rather fast.
I still don’t understand how people here seem to think that replacing Albert would allow us to get players equal or near enough equal to Pujols’s ability.
Of course, winning is the big IF
…and yes, fans would FREAK OUT at first. I just don’t think that in the long run people care who is winning games for the Cardinals, as long as the games are being won. But there is that big IF.
Traded Albert + Losing team = Flaming cars on hwy 40; Mozeliak’s head severed and hung from the arch; a race of underground snakepeople
by YepYouGuessedIt...CardinalRed on Sep 21, 2010 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions
If albert wants $30m
we could probably sign, say, Adrian Gonzalez and Dan Uggla for that in 2012. If Albert wants $30m in 2019, when he’s pushing 40, I’m pretty sure we could do a LOT better with that money.
You forget that this new contract STARTS in 2012 – it’s possible he’s not even the best player in baseball in another 12 months. 2 or 3 years after that he’s almost certain not to be.
Albert is an amazing player and a huge reason for our competitiveness (as you rightly state) for $16m per year, but once you’re paying him $25-30m he’s not such a great bargain. You could replace Albert’s production on the free agent market with some decent deals for $30m/yr, and, going forward, he’s only going to get worse.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 21, 2010 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Who else is better than Albert in a year?
Nobody else has even put up close to the performance has recently (24.2 WAR per FanGraphs since 2008, only Chase Utley has more than 20 and he’s older than Pujols and is having a much worse 2010. I guess Hanely Ramirez or Joe Mauer or Evan Longoria could challenge Pujols, but he’s clearly the favorite.
Pujols is a good bet to be worth 8 WAR next year – that’s what he’s done over his career and he was a 9 WAR player in 2008 and 2009, and will be nearly a 7 WAR player this year. You could project him at 7 WAR going forward after 2012 and that would be worth a 30 million contract, which, like I said above, I don’t think he’ll get.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 21, 2010 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions
What would Gonzalez/Uggla project for a year from now?
I’m guessing about 8 WAR. Taking ageing into account, 7 WAR is a stretch for Albert in 2012 I’d have thought. Of course, having the WAR portioned into just one lineup slot also has value, if you have some better-than-replacement options at 2B (which we might do by then with Descalso).
I’m not saying he’s not worth $30m. He is in the short term, and I don’t think it’s implausible he might even be over a long term deal (though it’s probably unlikely, IMO). Just that it isn’t such a bargain, indeed it’s barely market value, and we shouldn’t shit our pants at the possibility of missing out on such a “deal”.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 21, 2010 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions
And FWIW I'm not wholly convinced even an 8yr/200m deal is worth it
at 25m/yr. Slice off a year and a coupla mill and I’d be in. And I really think 8/200 is the minimum it’d take – I’d probably do it and suffer the couple of crap years at the end just to see him retire a Cardinal, but if he goes all Frank Thomas on us (by no means the most likely outcome, i understand) it has the potential to be supremely ugly.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 21, 2010 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions
But it's not Pujols vs Gonzalez/Uggla
It’s Pujols + likely 2B in 2012 vs. Gonzalez + Uggla.
I would think that both would be worth ~9 WAR, unless Descalso is a 2+ WAR player. Cox won’t be up at that point.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
im sorry
why would 7 WAR be generous? he’ll be 32 – in the prime of his career – and he’s had at leat 7.9 WAR every year except this one since 2002….
this year he has a .290 BABIP, which is the lowest its every been and his career BABIP is .314… plus he’s barely made a dent on fielding in fangraphs WAR this year (unless ‘06-’08 was an abberation)
by stlcardsfan4 on Sep 21, 2010 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions
why would 32 be the prime of his career?
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
twatter
by prophetjohn on Sep 21, 2010 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Pretty sure I saw a very interesting graph recently
(now there’s a comment you’re only ever likely to hear on a baseball or a mathematics blog…)
showing WAR/yr at various ages of “normal” hitters vs HOF hitters, and HOF guys have a longer peak; IIRC ages 27-32 were all, give or take, essentially a HOF guy’s peak, whereas lesser mortals tend to start their decline a little earlier. So I think it’s still not unreasonable to suggest that a HOF hitter at 32 should be somewhere around their career average.
That said, he WILL be 32, and even with the BABIP and fielding provisos, 2010 hasn’t been a particularly Pujolsian year. He’s also got a chronically bum elbow which I find hard to believe is going to get better as he ages. I think pegging a healthy Pujols for 7 WAR aged 32 is probably fair, and perhaps you could go even higher, but by that point there surely has to be a >10% chance of some sort of injury that either restricts him or causes some missed time (even given his excellent health record to date), and perhaps even a very small % chance that he misses a big chunk of a season with the Tommy John he’s supposed to have needed for years.
I don’t think 7 WAR at 32 is a conservative projection at all for Albert, I think it’s fairly sensible and an argument can be made that it’s a little bullish.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 22, 2010 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions
i'm surpriesed at the list. seems like some players should have more
tulo particularly seems really low to me
by YesWeOquendo on Sep 21, 2010 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions
You are also spreading out your risk between two players,
instead of having your 7-to-9-WAR bet riding on one horse (no matter how otherworldly that thoroughbred is). What’s more, there is long-term flexibility. It isn’t going to take 8 years to secure Uggla. It may take 8 years to get Gonzalez, but six seems more likely.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
But by spreading out the risk to 2 players
You are also limiting the potential for value. Pujols taking up one spot allows for an above replacement level player from the farm to come up.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 21, 2010 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions
There is a lot implied in that statement.
We have shifted to WAR relative to salary, I believe. Your statement rests on the assumption that two free agents are less likely to give us surplus value than Pujols and a player from the system. Depending on the salaries, this could be true. If we sign free agents for two positions that we have a shallow talent poll at in the minors (like, say first base and shortstop), I would think that the free agents would be more likely to give us surplus value.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
....
Your statement rests on the assumption that two free agents are less likely to give us surplus value than Pujols and a player from the system.
If you are signing the two free agents with the “Pujols money” then they should be equal to him in value. So that means that if the player you bring up from the minors to cheaply fill the extra spot is better than replacement level, than my assumption works. Almost all farm systems have above replacement level players hanging around.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 21, 2010 10:37 PM EDT up reply actions
I tend to agree
that said, bgh’s salient point, IMO, is the reduced risk (which I feel is valuable, how much is another argument) of spreading the WAR around, and more importantly the increased flexibility & competitiveness long-term. 6-7 years of 29-year-old Adrian Gonzalez plus 3-4 years of 32-year-old Dan Uggla is likely going to be better at the tail end than 8 years of 32-year-old Albert Pujols (again I suppose that’s arguable).
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 22, 2010 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions
but
how can all teams have their milb rosters full of better than replacement players
if so, why don’t they replace the replaceable mlb ones and save some bucks?
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
...to DFA TLR
Because GMs aren't that bright
and a lot of FAT flies under the radar. I wouldn’t say all MiLB rosters are “full” of better-than-replacement talent, but as it’s a pretty arbitrary measure (2 wins worse than league average) there will be times now and again when teams have a lot of above-replacement guys in the minors, and there’ll pretty much always be more better-than-replacement guys than there are spots on MLB rosters.
This is why carrying guys like Miles is a waste of time, and also one reason why (IMO at least) the way bullpen WAR tends to be worked out, using the “chaining” idea, is faulty, when “chaining” does not equally apply to position players.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 22, 2010 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Summary of today's VEB thread
Trading Albert Pujols: So much upside, so much downside.
Keeping Albert Pujols: So much upside, so much downside.
Brain reaction: Trade Albert Pujols
Gut reaction: Keep Albert Pujols.
It’s like marriage.
by leefyg on Sep 21, 2010 3:19 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
ehhh... this is more along the lines of if there's a trade, what would happen.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
so it's like a prenup.
/ducks.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
the only reason to trade him would be to restock the farm system
but if we trade him, we need to rely less on the farm system.
/conundrum
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 21, 2010 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Ahso!
Chitown-san understands that the truth is often like a riddle.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
I'm very zen-like in that sense
or am I just zen
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 21, 2010 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions
yup
back to Albert… I’ll switch gears a bit, maybe this one is more occam’s razor than zen.
everything we’ve been trying to accomplish and the direction of the org (matt holliday, lookin at you) has been geared towards signing Albert. if we back out now and trade him, wouldn’t that devalue the other related moves? sure if we can’t sign Albert, this would also do that. but trading him seems like the ‘break glass in case of fire’ move.
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 21, 2010 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, I would agree with you
in that I assume the same thing you do—that they have been taking steps to try to keep him.
But, a lot of those steps are just prudent baseball decisions. I mean, for example, developing a Colby Rasmus is just a good idea, but having that talent on the team could both help you keep Albert (lookie here, we’re putting in place a team that compete, so you should stay) and also help you deal with losing him (we have this Holliday guy locked up and he’s very very good, we have good starting pitching, a couple young cheap talents, etc.).
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
yeah
it’s kind of an appearances/surface level thing as far as trying to impress Albert. but yeah, the things they’ve done are pretty defensible either way, and the fuck ups have been usually due to trying to compete in a pennant race… except look at the Ludwick trade. they were trying to both compete in the pennant race while freeing up some money at the same time. not sure how Albert felt about that one. kind of weird that he has that much pull. I guess that’s why I bring up him being a player manager from time to time.
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 21, 2010 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions
pure speculation
I’ve been wondering if LaRue’s quick exit will affect Carpenter’s decision-making.
And I’m wondering how much Yadier Molina will have to say about Albert’s.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
it's a very tight knit ballclub no doubt
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 21, 2010 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think either will have much to do with any decisions made.
It’s MLB. Players know the way the business works. Pujols’s best friend is Placido Polanco and he was traded to Philly for Rolen. Then, Pujols signed an extension with the Cardinals that was the biggest in club history at the time.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
i mean in the sense
of affecting the business decision. the player has final say, at the end of the day, and the criteria for making that decision can change drastically for any number of reasons. including advice from confidantes.
I don’t mean it in the man stew sense, strictly speaking.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
I really wish we'd signed Polanco to that deal Philly did
looks an absolute steal, even if it takes him into his likely severe downturn years.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 21, 2010 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I really like Polanco as a player, and always have.
But, I’m glad we traded him for Rolen and I’m glad we didn’t give him that completely Philadelphian contract the Phillies gave him. Seriously. Ibanez, Polanco, Halladay, Howard. They know not of decline, it seems.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Polanco only got 3/24 right?
He’s well on his way to being worth the contract – is having an ok season with the bat and an excellent defensive season again according to UZR.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 21, 2010 6:47 PM EDT up reply actions
He is also in his age 34 season.
His defense allows him to be a valuable player despite falling off with the bat in recent years, to be sure, but if he is falling off with the bat. He doesn’t have a great walk rate. And, if his defense falls off, his value tumbles mightily. Maybe it won’t. I haven’t read all that much about defensive decline. I still wouldn’t want to have him set to receive $8MM from me for his age 36 season.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I thought it was 3/18
3/24 is a bit harder to stomach.
I like the versatility (2B or 3B and good at both, it seems) and the fact his bat and his attitude fits well both in with our on-field needs and the off-field profile of this team; I can see him working well with the guys we have, and he’s already good friends (I believe) with Albert, and liked by TLR.
I think he’ll be nigh on replacement level in year 3; I only thought years 1 and 2 were excellent value at $6m a piece, maybe not so much at $8m.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 22, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
A player manager would be so cool.
The Ludwick trade is still kind of weird to me. I think there was a little desperation there.
But this all reminds me that some people speculated that Holliday was as much insurance should Albert leave (we still have a super star, don’t panic!) as it was providing another huge talent to help out an Albert-led dynasty.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
desperation in what sense
the we need a starting pitcher sense, or the we need to sign Albert Pujols sense?
overall it’s kind of a convoluted situation to be thrown into as a new GM over the past few years. having to deal with so many heads in the game must be frustrating. I have a lot of respect for Mozeliak, even though you can’t please everyone. (still wish we could have gotten more for Ludwick of course, and the Lohse deal was a little weird).
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 21, 2010 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions
The needing a starting pitcher sense.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
both
yup
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 21, 2010 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Muckdogs news
Batavia Muckdogs announce 2-year extension with Cardinals
The new deal does not necessarily mean the team will stay in Batavia. Details of the extension were not immediately available. Reports had been circulating this season that 2010 might be the Muckdogs’ final season in Batavia due to attendance and money problems.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
You know what would be great right now?
A Muckdog. I’m thinking that would be a cool name for a big ol’ messy chili dog, with bacon and beans, at some roadside stand off a highway in Nebraska.
“Com’on down tah th’ Roadside Diner, whars you kin get yussef a Muckdog!”
Repeal The LaRussa Tax.
by Michael_68_1999 on Sep 21, 2010 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions
At some point we're going to have to raise the price of muckdogs to stay competitive.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
I haven't noticed much talk about inflation..
our nation’s future inflation…and how it could affect a contract signed before inflation really took off….although forces have kept inflation in check for the past few years, there are signs such as commodity prices and the Fed’s use of the printing press to suggest it’s around the corner…the question is, would a 30 million Pujols contract be worth less in the future in much the same way as an existing bond is worth less as interest rates rise….just wondering…
I don't know that this is actually going to be the case.
It seems to me that we’re in a liquidity trap right now, and that the reason we’re running such large deficits (outside of government spending in a recession, which I believe they should do as I’m a big believer in Keynesian theory) is that people are afraid to invest and earnings are down so that there hasn’t been as much revenue to tax the last three years as what was projected and forecast for when budgets were being determined at the federal level in the early part of the decade. That, and a lot of unfunded obligations (2 Wars, a really bad Medicare bill, etc.).
There have been a few good examples of this phenomenon in which inflation did not rise and instead moved toward the lower bound — Japan in the 90’s being the best case, and they are still to this day battling the problem.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
I too, don't have any idea if inflation will really happen
but I am suspicious that our leaders will be inclined to repay our massive debt with a falling dollar. If that is the case, and inflation did rear it’s ugly head, would it make the Cardinals “smart” to sign him at what appears to be a ridiculous amount to some? I don’t know, but it’s crossed my mind….
And should I sell my TIPs?
I would put money you can access without taxable considerations (i.e. not 401k, Roth and IRA ) into long term CD's and cash right now
You’ll get better rates with long term CD’s (5 years or longer) and generally if you keep them for at least 12 months, you can cash them out and make better money after paying the penalty than you would get on short term CD’s (less than 5 years). And in a liquidity trap, cash is king.
I have my 401k and Roth IRA in 20% TIPS and 80% bonds right now, and have for most of the past 3 years. I moved it all when Bear Stearns went south just in case and got lucky to only lose about 20% of my portfolio during the crash (which was invested in mutual funds — NEVER AGAIN will I invest in mutuals.)
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
I totally agree
Certificate of Deposit for 5 to 10 years is what I would do.
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 21, 2010 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks
my IRAs (regular and Roth) are probably 70/30% Bonds/TIPs…..my wife’s is probably 80/20% Bonds/Various Investments….but due to inheritance, this is only about 20% of our total portfolio, (I"m retired), and we have a large chunk in shorter term CDs (less than 5 years). I’m going to check out some longer term ones….and we DO have a large portion of our investments in mutual funds (Vanguard), so I hope the worst never happens….
Vanguard seemed to do OK in the downturn
in terms of recovering value. My parents had most of their money invested in various Vanguard mutual funds as well at the time, and have recovered about 85% of their pre-2007 value. That’s pretty good overall.
I just got out of the stock market entirely for the short term — there’s just too much short term volatility and I think that bonds are still fairly cheap if you buy them in bond funds like the Goldman Sachs Managed Bond Fund.
If you’re retired, I’d just get my money out of stocks after you determine how much you need to withdraw (after the gains on your portfolio) from your retirement savings each year. If you can invest in TIPS, Muni Bonds, and Corporate Bonds, earn 2% and live off of that plus withdrawing 5% of the principal each year, you really have no reason to ever be in the market — you don’t need those type of gains.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
et tu, David
“Definitely the wear and tear of the shortstop position takes its toll, and it definitely took its toll on me,” said Eckstein, 35. “I’m not getting any younger. It wasn’t my natural position, either. To be honest, I always wanted to play second base in the majors. That was my dream.”
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
I read that this morning, and my first reaction was
fuck you David Eckstein.
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Second base….I’ve played second base, how hard can it be? -TLR
Also, Dave Concepcion.
that's my first reaction most mornings.
I’m an unpleasant person, to be honest.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 21, 2010 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions
fuck mornings
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 21, 2010 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions
pst
he is just sucking it up for the Padre fans. No one likes a guy on a winning team who complains about not playing the position he wants to.
But yeah, that was my first reaction too.
I didn’t get on base. One time I did (Wednesday) and we scored a run. That shows if I get on base, things can happen - Oilspill
Can you imagine a Ryan/Sexstein infield?
It would be the mousiest in history. It would look like a bunch of civil war soldiers playing MIF.
Mike Shannon: "That strikeout was brought to you by...by...well, I don't know what it was brought to you by!"
John Rooney: "It wasn't brought to you by anything Mike."
Miles and Eckstein played at the same time.
The grit will never be surpassed
"What exactly is that thing? A pessimism meter?" - Bruce McCurdy
We'd need a Miles appearance at 3rd to round out the trifecta of grit.
Of course, Pujols would likely take a bat to someone for being subjected to that group.
Eckstein and Ryan played together in 2007.
Eck was the first of many to block Boog at shortstop.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
Hey guys....sup?
Note: Above comment may contain gratuitous amounts of sarcasm.
BOYCOTT HASS AVOCADOS
not much.
Asshattery: it's an epidemic.
Second base….I’ve played second base, how hard can it be? -TLR
Also, Dave Concepcion.
ar
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 21, 2010 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Lopez sent packing, per Hummel
“The Cardinals have sent Felipe Lopez home for the rest of the season.
He has already left Pittsburgh today.
Manager Tony La Russa did not give a full explanation other than to say the team would be playing more of its younger players in the final two weeks of the season.”
wow
good luck, lopex
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 21, 2010 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions
whoaaaaaa.
Club Flip has closed its doors.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
He's going to drown himself in neck tattoos to get over this one.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
by Alxfritz on Sep 21, 2010 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
it's a vicious cycle out there
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 21, 2010 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Does that mean he is going to get face tattoos that rise above his mouth and nose?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
isn't the neck tattoo a tribute to his wife?
and the rest are the addiction… like what Carp’s going through.
there’s a Ray Bradbury tale in this somewhere.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
i hate to say i told you so,,,,
and W T F VEB. have you learned nothing? look what happened when Luddy was traded?
ALBERT F PUJOLS DOES NOT APPROVE OFF ALL THIS TRADE ALBERT PUJOLS TALK. YOU WILL RUE THE DAY IF THAT EVER HAPPENS. RUE IT I SAY! RUE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
All I've got is a broken heart, memories & dreams that I can't drink away
LaRUE it!
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 21, 2010 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions
what happened when luddy was traded
was luddy stopped hitting and we got a good starting pitcher in return
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
twatter
yeah
that worked out pretty sweet
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 21, 2010 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah because players are robots & being ripped off of team you love has no effect on how you play the game
and being put on a team where you are expected to produce most of the runs scored instead of being a complementary player on a team where you are expected to only produce a much smaller percentage of the runs scored doesn’t effect at all how you play the game.
and playing the majority of your games in the worst ball park for hitters in the majors instead of a pretty fair park doesn’t effect at all how you play the game.
i’m happy with Westbrook in the rotation. but i don’t for one second think Luddy would be as bad as he has been for the father’s if he had stayed in the STL. players aren’t robots. he’s under a lot more pressure & expected to do a lot more than what was asked of him here. to think he’d go to wales vagina & hit like he hit here is totally & completely unfair. Albert couldn’t even do that. what happened to Luddy would happen to 100% of the players who were put in the exact same situation.
All I've got is a broken heart, memories & dreams that I can't drink away
you told us he was going to get hurt and be ineffective hald the season
or that tony was going to overexpose his defense out of position?
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
twatter
you told us that Tony was going to make a stupid move?
Well shucks, you’re a genius.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 21, 2010 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions
I AM SO SMRT! I AM SO SMRT! S M R T! S M R T!
no, i didn’t say he would get hurt or TLR would abuse him. i said he was a dbag, a cancer, a bad guy & he would be a problem in the clubhouse. and guess what? i was right. am i happy about this? hell no. but i was right. that doesn’t happen a lot for me around here so yeah, i’m going to hold on to it. i’m not going to be a prick about it or rub it in anyone’s face. but i was right about Floppy & no one can say i wasn’t.
All I've got is a broken heart, memories & dreams that I can't drink away
by gdm426 on Sep 23, 2010 12:59 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
I'm just no sure how you can he's a cancer
His only offense this year has been showing up late numerous times, which I guess makes him a Dbag, but it’s not likely he’s done anything so offensive to be labeled a clubhouse cancer. Baseball players aren’t robots, but they aren’t 13 year old girls either.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 23, 2010 1:40 AM EDT up reply actions
somewhere, Brendan Ryan sets all his watches seventeen minutes ahead
Fox_Sports_MW Lopez given unconditional release. Tipping point: Lopez was late again yesterday. More on Cardinals Live at 5:30. #STLcards 2 minutes ago via web
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
That is one of those intangile characteristics managers are so wild about.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
his crazy eyes?
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
Since July 8
.176 .263 .253 for Felipe in 207 PAs. I was a huge Felipe fan, but the guy clearly got hurt or something.
Not afraid to nitpick
wow, that's terrible
Although it’s still entirely possible that those numbers are a slump, or even bad luck. He had a decent K:BB ratio (37 to 22) and a .214 BABIP.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 21, 2010 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm a big believer that it's hard to fluke your way towards a near .500 OPS for any extended period of time
I wouldn’t mind seeing him get a look next year (not that it’s gonna happen now), but that’s cliff diving stuff.
Not afraid to nitpick
Is that based off of anything?
We know that players can fluke there way into a .500 OPS for 80 PA (Allen Craig, Colby Rasmus). Why not 200?
It’s less likely, but as far as I know there is no reason to think that Lopez isn’t really the average hitter he’s been throughout his entire career.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 21, 2010 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions
I wonder what his LD, GB, and FB percentages are during that period.
I also wonder how injured his elbow is.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I didn't say impossible
And Craig/Rasmus haven’t come all that close to cracking the .500 barrier like Felipe even still. Plus he’s a 30 year old second baseman…
Not afraid to nitpick
I don't recall seeing Felipe take a good PA in long time
don’t recall many hard hit balls. A lot of looking at strikes/balls-called-strikes
by infallibleopiniongenerator on Sep 21, 2010 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions
stupid second inning of pitching!
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
tardy = go home early
I will have to learn this life lesson, sounds good to me!
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 21, 2010 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions
So was my wife
but that was nothing a coat hanger couldn’t fix.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
by Alxfritz on Sep 21, 2010 8:12 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
if that doesn't deserve a HFS
than nothing does
HFS
Fire John Mozeliak up a nice steak, or stake ( haven't decided)
I'll own up to being the rec'er...
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 22, 2010 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Tony = idiot
But at least he’s playing young players.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 21, 2010 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions
you mean Stavinoha?
/badumching
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
I'm still waiting for them to realize that a guy with middling power who swings at 57% pitches thrown at him is bad
Not afraid to nitpick
Can Mike MacDougal throw a pitch wild enough that there is a 0% chance Stav would swing?
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Sep 21, 2010 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think the large hadron collider was built to provide a satisfactory answer to that theoretical question
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 21, 2010 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Amaury Cazana sent that bird back in time
to prevent them from trying.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Sep 21, 2010 7:29 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
exactly
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 21, 2010 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions
agreed
also, a fringe player who may or may not have been a pain in the ass behind the scenes (turning up late and dogging it in the field possible symptoms) and who probably won’t be back next year, you might as well just let someone else get the game time now.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 21, 2010 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions
well this pretty much answers whether felipe will be back next year
and that seems to be no – TLR leaves and it increases of course
by stlcardsfan4 on Sep 21, 2010 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Makes it easier to offer him arbitration if he's type B though
He’s not going to come back to a place he isn’t wanted.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
yes that's certainly a positive
and the downside risk is minimal – $1 million for a historically productive player
by stlcardsfan4 on Sep 21, 2010 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions
We can't offer arbitration to a released player, can we?
"What exactly is that thing? A pessimism meter?" - Bruce McCurdy
If they actually have released him
then this was a massive, massive goof by Mo. Again. As fourstick says, he’s hugely unlikely to accept arby and even if he does I’m pretty sure they have a window to dump him in ST for a pro-rated portion of it. AND he likely wouldn’t get more than $3m or so anyhow.
Jeez. What a fuck up.
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 22, 2010 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Per the transaction report, they released him.
That’s a really stupid fucking move. He was projected to be a solid B and is a switch hitter who can play multiple positions. SOMEONE will sign him next year, and we would have gotten a top 50 draft pick out of the deal.
Our front office at times is really, unbelievably stupid.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
by fourstick on Sep 22, 2010 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
interesting
“nothing to learn”, except maybe to tell time
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
...to DFA TLR
by sportsman on Sep 21, 2010 7:29 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
i just stopped by to share this gem of comments from the St. Louis Cardinals' facebook post re Lopez
Chuck Green I agree get rid of Cry’n Ryan ,
2 minutes ago · Like
Jarad Crews lol no more like rasmus lol he strikes out 10 times then hits a homerun …he sucks
2 minutes ago · Like
WAT
You teach me baseball and I'll teach you relativity. No, we must not. You will learn about relativity faster than I learn baseball. --Albert Einstein
Cry'n Ryan?
wtf
Rasmus sucks? what planet do these people live on?
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 21, 2010 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions
not Pluto!
BECAUSE IT’S NOT A PLANET!!!!!
Still bitching to contact.
by Felonius_Monk on Sep 21, 2010 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions
planet meathead
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 21, 2010 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions
I study public opinion. People are fucking stupid.
21% of the American public say that the First Amendment gives them the right have have pets.
Gregatron is not responsible for any of the crap he just wrote.
St. Louis vegetarian blog
there's no doubt about that
I totally agree. #1 threat to democracy.
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 21, 2010 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions
I once called a kid "Cryin' Ryan"
Then he called me NutZach… I lost.
Mike Shannon: "That strikeout was brought to you by...by...well, I don't know what it was brought to you by!"
John Rooney: "It wasn't brought to you by anything Mike."
This is totally random but I'm bored
Your name Zach reminded me of my friend Zach (or maybe he spells it Zack) who loves Big Trouble in Little China:
I think your profile picture and this image of Lo Pan should do battle.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
that would be the most awesome avatar, ever!
Fire John Mozeliak up a nice steak, or stake ( haven't decided)
im certainly intrigued
but all of the things that it features make my head hurt trying to figure out what they mean….
by stlcardsfan4 on Sep 21, 2010 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions
no.
follow me on twitter @nickg105, @Rams_Fan_Voice
by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 21, 2010 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Will Cardinals content again?
With the rise of the Reds this year and the difficulty of the Redbirds winning against Central Division teams, you need to find out the reasons why the Cardinals had fallen behind and you cannot blame it on bad luck. Cardinals need to select the players who can lead the Cardinals back into the playoffs first. There were bad contracts on the team but you have to look beyond that now to get to the 25/40 men roster within the total budget allowed. Good luck. Redbirds look strong in pitching on paper but short in position players who can play decently and contribute. (Where did the Reds get theirs?) There are only 3-4 key players on the Cardinals team and you seem to get different guys getting the winning RBI on the Reds team throughout the season. Cardinals’ bench players need to get better.
I'm content.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
Your analysis doesn't include analysis. Also,
"What exactly is that thing? A pessimism meter?" - Bruce McCurdy
by hazel on Sep 21, 2010 8:46 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Ken Griffey, Jr.
As great a player as Griffey Junior was, look at what the Reds accomplished when he was there. Unloading Griffey back to Seattle opened up a whole new way of looking at the future of the Reds. May be Jocketty helped in some of the picks and trades but that Reds minor system was chock full of potential players. Do the Rebirds have them and are the ready to step up to the plate? You need to make some tough calls. As a fan, I am just pointing out what I see are happening. I am not giving any analysis.
I'm not sure you understand what the word analysis means.
In any case, I analyzed this myself in the fanpost about looking forward to the offseason. The contribution of a team’s bench is generally almost negligible over a season unless a team suffers a handful of injuries and those bench players are thrust into full-time roles. Replacing the albatross Griffey and the awful defense of Dunn with young, great players at first and RF went a long way toward getting the Reds out of the cellar. The trades that brought Volquez, Phillips, and Arroyo also helped quite a bit.
At any rate, the Reds remain, at best, a questionable division leader. Their pitching staff simply doesn’t have enough talent without Volquez returning to form. The flood of adequate minor league SP’s is certainly a good thing, but it’s tough to see more than one of Wood/Leake/the other one whose name I forget actually sticking in the majors. Meanwhile, Harang appears to be in steep decline or done, Arroyo is pitching his best season in some time, and Cueto is probably near his ceiling: Edwin Jackson. Chapman throws hard, but what are they thinking rushing him to the majors before he shows any control in the minors?
"What exactly is that thing? A pessimism meter?" - Bruce McCurdy
The Reds will be projected to win at least 5 fewer games than the Cardinals next year
Mark it down.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 21, 2010 10:39 PM EDT up reply actions
probably
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 21, 2010 10:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Let's see what they do in the offseason first, shall we?
And let’s see what we do in the offseason as well.
What if they sign Jayson Werth, Kevin Correia, and Carl Pavano?
You have no clue how they will be projected because you have no clue who’s going to be on their ballclub at the start of 2011.
Maybe they’ll deal Yonder Alonso (who’s had a pretty good second half of the season in the minors) for Josh Willingham if the Nats don’t sign Adam Dunn.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
That's pretty contrary.
The likelihood that the Reds make a handful of lateral moves is far greater than the chance that they spend $50M+
Just because you don’t have an interenet connection to B-R in 2015 doesn’t mean you don’t have a clue.
"What exactly is that thing? A pessimism meter?" - Bruce McCurdy
Um, with the exception of Werth, those are all pretty much lateral moves.
They could buy out both Arroyo and Harang for the money that they’re saving on Scott Rolen, then invest that $22M in Pavano and Correia. The only guy getting a major raise is Phillips ($4.5M) while Votto, Cueto, and Volquez, and Bailey will be in Arb1. Votto may see a pretty big increase, but Volquez and Bailey are likely to get near the minimum and Cueto somewhere in the middle of the pack of Arb 1 increases I’d imagine.
With those two signings, their rotation would be Pavano, Cueto, Corriea, Volquez, and Leake. They could move Bailey to the bullpen to set up (he could have a Boggs-like conversion to the pen I think) and that rotation will be better than the 2010 version that is currently helping them win the division. Put him out there with Cordero, Masset, Rhodes, Herrera, Smith, Ondrusek and Chapman and they have a pretty good bullpen.
They might pick up O-Cab’s option, they might not. I would guess that they won’t and that they’ll let Cozart and Valaika compete for that spot (along with Janish) in the spring as both had solid years at Louisville this season and are average to plus defensively.
I think a full season of Heisey in LF would be a huge upgrade over the Nix/Gomes combination, although they might pick up Gomes’ option as he is a useful bench bat. An outfield of Heisey, Stubbs, and Bruce is one of the better ones in the National League in terms of overall value, and if Valaika or Cozart can be league average at SS, they have a very good chance to be as good or better offensively as they are this year. It’s not like the Reds have players that lack talent and are having huge years. Stubbs, Bruce, and Votto were all top prospects at one time.
Top to bottom, their lineup is far better than the Cardinals’ is. We have a better starting staff, but they could make moves to improve theirs this offseason. I’d say the bullpens are about equal, but their closer situation is set — ours is not for next season.
The only reason projections would favor us is because a lot of their younger players don’t have track records of doing what they’re doing this year, and that will push their projections down a bit. But I don’t see why they aren’t a 90 win team if they make slight improvements to their rotation.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
...
Top to bottom, their lineup is far better than the Cardinals’ is.
Unsubstantiated. Here are the positional comparisons:
Catcher: Yadier vs. Hannigan
First base: Pujols vs. Votto
2nd base: Phillips vs. Schumaker
SS: Janish vs. Ryan
3B: Rolen vs. Freese
LF: Holliday vs. Gomes (?)
CF: Stubbs vs. Rasmus
RF: Bruce vs. Jay
Their offense is clearly better at 3rd base, 2nd base and RF; our offense is clearly better at CF, 1B and LF. The other positions are a wash (yes Janish is just as bad as Ryan). I see our offenses as very close to even. Our pitching, on the other hand, destroys them.
This year, even after the Cardinals have played like shit for a month, they have still been a slightly better team than the Reds
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2010/9/16/1693689/btb-power-rankings-week-24-two
by vivaelpujols on Sep 22, 2010 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Is there any reason to expect the Reds to have a better offseason than us?
They have lower payroll potential, and less obvious “addition by subtraction” moves.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 22, 2010 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions
Yonder Alonso is a soon to be 24 year old first baseman with a .825 OPS in AAA this year and a .826 OPS in his minor league career
He’s about as much a prospect as Mark Hamilton.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 22, 2010 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions
Then why is he a B+ grade on most prospect lists and consistently listed in the top 5 prospects by nearly every scout for a system that is much deeper than ours?
He hit .354/.443/.556 in the second half of the season in AAA. Mark Hamilton’s never done that over a 2 month stretch in his entire minor league career I’d imagine.
He’s got more trade value than Hamilton does, and he really doesn’t have a position on the Reds. I’d imagine that someone with a hole at 1B would give something for him.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
According to Baseball America preseason
He was the 45th prospect in baseball before this season. Then he puts up a .826 OPS in 500 at bats between AA and AAA. That translates to a .687 OPS MLE, which compares nicely to his career .672 OPS MLE.
http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi?pl=475174
He will be 24 next season, and has been a terrible hitter thus far in nearly 1000 plate appearances in the minors. Did I mention he’s a first baseman?
It’s ridiculous to call him a good prospect. I garauntee that he won’t sniff the top 100 in BA’s rankings next year.
by vivaelpujols on Sep 22, 2010 7:51 PM EDT up reply actions
His ranking is a complete mystery to me,
but it has been going down, not up, and he is basically on the DJT train out of the top 100 station. He never hit for the hype and his minor league hitting numbers compare unfavorably to Craig, Freese, Hamilton, and are just a touch better than Stavinoha.
"What exactly is that thing? A pessimism meter?" - Bruce McCurdy
this seems to be right up VEB's alley
http://twitter.com/search?q=%23MLBnovels
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
Pat Parris does this jour-na-lism thing
fake blockquote
Cardinals Record Based on Runs Scored, 2010
3 or Fewer Runs 7-53 .117 (Worst in MLB)
4 or More Runs 70-19 .787 (7th best in MLB)
Win Pct Diff .670 (Largest in MLB)
The Cardinals struggled mightily against bad teams this season, and thrived on the league’s best. Again, no real reason, but the numbers that we uncovered are striking:
Vs teams above .500 33-23 (.589)
Vs teams .500 and below 44-49 (.473)
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Sep 21, 2010 11:02 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
mother fuck
"Moneyball: It's kind of like communism."
twatter
by prophetjohn on Sep 21, 2010 11:56 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
part of the answer may be i who pitched those games
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
...to DFA TLR
whoops
a lot of juggling of the rotation to put our best arms against better teams
also interesting to know what our team BA was against the better and worse teams
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
...to DFA TLR
obp
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 22, 2010 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions
somehow, I don't think our 4 and 5 slots pitched all 60 games.
Lick that shoulder—you're in the doghouse now.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there..." - THT
fuck
"Nah….He’s an infielder. Second base…..I played second base, how hard can it be?"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Sep 22, 2010 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions
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